Prevention of Disability in the Frail Chinese Older Population

Development and validation of machine learning models to predict frailty risk for elderly

AIMS

Early identification and intervention of the frailty of the elderly will help lighten the burden of social medical care and improve the quality of life of the elderly. Therefore, we used machine learning (ML) algorithm to develop models to predict frailty risk in the elderly.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

METHODS

We collected data on 6997 elderly people from Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study wave 6-7 surveys (2011-2012, 2014). After the baseline survey in 1998 (wave 1), the project conducted follow-up surveys (wave 2-8) in 2000-2018. The osteoporotic fractures index was used to assess frailty. Four ML algorithms (random forest [RF], support vector machine, XGBoost and logistic regression [LR]) were used to develop models to identify the risk factors of frailty and predict the risk of frailty. Different ML models were used for the prediction of frailty risk in the elderly and frailty risk was trained on a cohort of 4385 elderly people with frailty (split into a training cohort [75%] and internal validation cohort [25%]). The best-performing model for each study outcome was tested in an external validation cohort of 6997 elderly people with frailty pooled from the surveys (wave 6-7). Model performance was assessed by receiver operating curve and F2-score.

RESULTS

Among the four ML models, the F2-score values were similar (0.91 vs. 0.91 vs. 0.88 vs. 0.90), and the area under the curve (AUC) values of RF model was the highest (0.75), followed by LR model (0.74). In the final two models, the AUC values of RF and LR model were similar (0.77 vs. 0.76) and their accuracy was identical (87.4% vs. 87.4%).

CONCLUSION

Our study developed a preliminary prediction model based on two different ML approaches to help predict frailty risk in the elderly.

IMPACT

The presented models from this study can be used to inform healthcare providers to predict the frailty probability among older adults and maybe help guide the development of effective frailty risk management interventions.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROFESSION AND/OR PATIENT CARE

Detecting frailty at an early stage and implementing timely targeted interventions may help to improve the allocation of health care resources and to reduce frailty-related burden. Identifying risk factors for frailty could be beneficial to provide tailored and personalized care intervention for older adults to more accurately prevent or improve their frail conditions so as to improve their quality of life.

REPORTING METHOD

The study has adhered to STROBE guidelines.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

No patient or public contribution.

Mediating effects of depression on sleep disturbance and frailty in older adult type 2 diabetes patients in the community

Introduction

With the progressive aging of the population, frailty is now a significant challenge in geriatrics research. A growing amount of evidence suggests that sleep disturbance and depression have independent effects on frailty, although the underlying mechanisms are not yet clear. This study aimed to investigate the mediating role of depression in the relationship between sleep disturbance and frailty in older adult patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in the community.

Method

Purposive sampling was used to collect face-to-face data from 342 community-dwelling T2DM patients in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China, between February and May 2023. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) scale was used to evaluate sleep quality, the Simple Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) was used to evaluate depressive symptoms, and the FRAIL Scale (FRAIL) was used to evaluate frailty. Linear regression equation and bootstrap self-sampling were used to verify the mediating role of depressive symptoms in sleep disturbance and frailty.

Result

The study found that sleep disturbance had a direct positive effect with frailty [β = 0.040, 95% CI: (0.013, 0.069)]. Additionally, depression had a direct positive effect on frailty [β = 0.130, 95% CI: (0.087, 0.173)], and depression was found to partially mediate the relationship between sleep disturbance and frailty.

Conclusion

Poor sleep quality and frailty are common in patients with T2DM. To reduce the frailty of older adult T2DM patients, all levels of society (government, medical institutions, and communities) must pay more attention to mental health. A variety of interventions should be considered to improve sleep quality and depression, which in turn may prevent or control frailty.

Prevalence of Frailty Among Chinese Community-Dwelling Older Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Objectives: To systematically review the epidemiology of frailty in China, one of the world's most populous countries, and to provide insightful guidance for countries to deal with fast population ageing. Methods: Six electronic databases were searched until November 2022. Data from cross-sectional studies with a clear definition of frailty and a mean age ≥60 years were pooled using meta-analysis. Results: 64 studies (n = 106,826 participants) from 23 (67.6%) of China's provinces were included. The overall prevalence of frailty and prefrailty among older community dwellers was 10.1% (95% CI: 8.5%-11.7%) and 43.9% (95% CI: 40.1%-47.8%), respectively. Adults over 70 years, women, unmarried, living alone, and those with less education had higher odds of being frail. Furthermore, regional disparities in frailty were observed; people in rural areas or areas with worse economic conditions had a higher prevalence of frailty. Conclusion: A great variation in frailty prevalence was observed between subgroups of older adults stratified by common risk factors. The Chinese government should pay more attentions to seniors at high risk and regions with a high prevalence of frailty.

Health Status and Individual Care Needs of Disabled Elderly at Home in Different Types of Care

For the disabled, paying attention to their health status is the starting point to discovering their survival problems, while meeting their care needs is the end point to solving their survival problems. As the country with the largest number of disabled elderly in the world, how to ensure this group could obtain appropriate home care is a major public health issue facing China. Thus, we conducted a cross-sectional study from October to December 2020 to explore the basic characteristics and health status of disabled elderly in different types of care who are living at home in 37 streets in Shanghai, as well as the individual care needs and its relevance. We observed the significant differences in the number of diagnoses (p = 0.03), smoking (p = 0.009), drinking (p = 0.016), exercise (p = 0.001), activity of daily living (p < 0.0001), and the quality of life (p < 0.0001) across care types. The care needs of the disabled elderly are diversified, of which a vast majority of them have not been fully guaranteed. The urgent need for improving the identification accuracy of care needs of disabled elderly, as well as the development of elaborate and personalized care programs for them, is needed.

Intrinsic Capacity vs. Multimorbidity: A Function-Centered Construct Predicts Disability Better Than a Disease-Based Approach in a Community-Dwelling Older Population Cohort

Objective: This study aimed to assess the status of intrinsic capacity (IC)—a novel function-centered construct proposed by the WHO and examine whether impairment in IC predicts subsequent 1-year activities of daily living (ADL) disability better than a disease-based approach, i. e., multimorbidity status.

Methods: This study included data of community-dwelling older adults from the Beijing Longitudinal Study on Aging II aged 65 years or older who were followed up at 1 year. Multivariate logistic regressions were performed to estimate the odds of ADL disability at baseline and 1-year follow-up.

Results: A total of 7,298 older participants aged 65 years or older were included in the current study. About 4,742 older adults were followed up at 1 year. At baseline, subjects with a higher impairment in IC domains showed higher odds of ADL disability [adj. odds ratio (OR) = 9.51 for impairment in ≥3 domains, area under the curve (AUC) = 0.751] compared to much lower odds of ADL disability in subjects with a higher number (≥3) of chronic diseases (adj. OR 3.92, AUC = 0.712). At 1-year follow-up, the overall incidence of ADL disability increased with the impairment in IC domains higher than the increase in multimorbidity status. A higher impairment in IC domains showed higher odds of incidence ADL disability for impairment in 2 or ≥3 IC domains (adj. OR 2.32 for impairment in ≥3 domains, adj. OR 1.43 for impairment in two domains, AUC = 0.685). Only subjects who had ≥3 chronic diseases had higher odds of 1-year incident ADL disability (adj. OR 1.73, AUC = 0.681) that was statistically significant.

Conclusion: Our results imply that a function-centered construct could have higher predictability of disability compared to the multimorbidity status in community older people. Our results need to be confirmed by studies with longer follow-up.

Could the EQ-5D-3L predict all-cause mortality in older Chinese? Evidence from a 5-year longitudinal study in eastern China

PURPOSE

To assess the ability of the 3-level EQ-5D (i.e., EQ-5D-3L) in predicting all-cause mortality in older Chinese adults.

METHODS

The data were from a 5-year longitudinal study, Weitang Geriatric Diseases Study, including 4579 community-dwelling older people in eastern China, with the mean age of 72.5 years at baseline and female being 52.0%. Three multivariable logistic regression models were adopted to assess the associations of the baseline EQ-5D data [i.e., the EQ-5D problems, EQ-5D-3L index score, and EQ-5D visual analog scale (VAS) score] with the 5-year all-cause mortality, adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics, and subsequently, health conditions and lifestyle habits.

RESULTS

A total of 183 participants died over the 5-year study period. A larger proportion of the dead reported problems in physical dimensions (i.e., including three dimensions: mobility, self-care, and usual activities, p < 0.05 for all). The mean EQ-5D index score (0.928) and EQ-VAS score (79.7) of the living were higher than those of the dead (0.915 and 73.2, p < 0.05 for both). In multivariable logistic analyses, the EQ-5D health problems in the physical-related dimensions [odds ratio (OR) 2.16, p < 0.05] and the EQ-VAS score (OR: 0.97, p < 0.001) were associated with the 5-year all-cause mortality when adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics, health conditions, and lifestyle habits.

CONCLUSIONS

It appears that the EQ-5D-3L could predict mortality in general older Chinese, which could be used to detect high-risk older individuals in China.

Severity of frailty as a significant predictor of mortality for hemodialysis patients: a prospective study in China

Background: Frailty is known to be highly prevalent in older hemodialysis (HD) patients. We studied the prevalence of frailty and its associated factors in Chinese HD patients. We further studied if frailty could predict survival in HD patients. Methods: This is a prospective study involving patients receiving maintenance HD in the dialysis center of Xuanwu Hospital, Beijing. Study subjects were enrolled from October to December, 2017 and followed up for two years. Demographic data, comorbidities and biological parameters were collected. Frailty was assessed using the Fried frailty phenotype at baseline. Cox regression analysis was performed to identify the relationship between frailty and mortality in HD patients. Kaplan-Meier was plotted using the cutoff value obtained by ROC curve to evaluate survival rates in different frailty status. Results: Total of 208 HD patients were enrolled with a mean age of 60.5±12.7 years. According to the frailty criteria, at baseline the prevalence of robust, pre-frail and frail in HD patients was 28.7%, 45.9%, and 25.4%, respectively. The two-year all-cause mortality was 18.8% (39/207) and underlying causes of death included coronary artery disease (CAD), cerebrovascular disease (CVD), hyperkalemia, severe infection, malignant tumor and others. Survival curve showed the patients with frailty score ≥4 to have significantly shorter survival time as compared to patients with frailty score ≤ 3. Frailty predicted two-year mortality when frailty score ≥4 with a sensitivity of 70% and a specificity of 83.67% with an AUC of 0.819. Frailty score was positively associated with age and ratio of ultrafiltration volume to dry weight, while negatively associated with levels of serum albumin, uric acid and diastolic blood pressure after HD. Conclusions: Our results confirm frailty to be very common among HD patients and severity of frailty was a significant predictor of mortality for HD patients. Factors such as age, malnutrition and low blood pressure are the factors to be associated with frailty. Interdialytic weight gain inducing excessive ultrafiltration volume is an important risk factor.

A research agenda for ageing in China in the 21st century (2nd edition): Focusing on basic and translational research, long-term care, policy and social networks

One of the key issues facing public healthcare is the global trend of an increasingly ageing society which continues to present policy makers and caregivers with formidable healthcare and socio-economic challenges. Ageing is the primary contributor to a broad spectrum of chronic disorders all associated with a lower quality of life in the elderly. In 2019, the Chinese population constituted 18 % of the world population, with 164.5 million Chinese citizens aged 65 and above (65+), and 26 million aged 80 or above (80+). China has become an ageing society, and as it continues to age it will continue to exacerbate the burden borne by current family and public healthcare systems. Major healthcare challenges involved with caring for the elderly in China include the management of chronic non-communicable diseases (CNCDs), physical frailty, neurodegenerative diseases, cardiovascular diseases, with emerging challenges such as providing sufficient dental care, combating the rising prevalence of sexually transmitted diseases among nursing home communities, providing support for increased incidences of immune diseases, and the growing necessity to provide palliative care for the elderly. At the governmental level, it is necessary to make long-term strategic plans to respond to the pressures of an ageing society, especially to establish a nationwide, affordable, annual health check system to facilitate early diagnosis and provide access to affordable treatments. China has begun work on several activities to address these issues including the recent completion of the of the Ten-year Health-Care Reform project, the implementation of the Healthy China 2030 Action Plan, and the opening of the National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders. There are also societal challenges, namely the shift from an extended family system in which the younger provide home care for their elderly family members, to the current trend in which young people are increasingly migrating towards major cities for work, increasing reliance on nursing homes to compensate, especially following the outcomes of the 'one child policy' and the 'empty-nest elderly' phenomenon. At the individual level, it is important to provide avenues for people to seek and improve their own knowledge of health and disease, to encourage them to seek medical check-ups to prevent/manage illness, and to find ways to promote modifiable health-related behaviors (social activity, exercise, healthy diets, reasonable diet supplements) to enable healthier, happier, longer, and more productive lives in the elderly. Finally, at the technological or treatment level, there is a focus on modern technologies to counteract the negative effects of ageing. Researchers are striving to produce drugs that can mimic the effects of 'exercising more, eating less', while other anti-ageing molecules from molecular gerontologists could help to improve 'healthspan' in the elderly. Machine learning, 'Big Data', and other novel technologies can also be used to monitor disease patterns at the population level and may be used to inform policy design in the future. Collectively, synergies across disciplines on policies, geriatric care, drug development, personal awareness, the use of big data, machine learning and personalized medicine will transform China into a country that enables the most for its elderly, maximizing and celebrating their longevity in the coming decades. This is the 2nd edition of the review paper (Fang EF et al., Ageing Re. Rev. 2015).

Effects of Disability Type on the Association between Age and Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors among Elderly Persons with Disabilities in Shanghai, China

Little is known about differences in the association between age and risk factors of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), according to the disability type in Chinese elderly persons with disabilities. Thus, we examined the effects of these differences in elderly persons with disabilities in Shanghai, China. We evaluated four NCD risk factors (hypertension, hyperglycemia, hyperlipidemia, and overweight) using health data obtained from 20,471 elderly persons with disabilities in 2017. Logistic regression analyses explored differences in the association between age and NCD risk factors according to the disability types, after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics. We observed significant differences in the association between age and NCD risk factors across disability types; a significant association was observed between older age and higher odds of hypertension (p < 0.001) among subjects with a physical disability. However, the prevalence of hypertension did not significantly differ by age in subjects with multiple disabilities. Interventions for elderly patients whose disabilities are more strongly affected by environmental factors should focus more on reduction of subjects’ barriers to activities through improvements in living and environmental adaptability for physical activities.

The Relationship Between Health Literacy, Social Support, Depression, and Frailty Among Community-Dwelling Older Patients With Hypertension and Diabetes in China

Population aging is one of the major challenges facing modern society and has attracted global attention. With population aging becoming a global phenomenon, the impact of age-related diseases on health is increasing rapidly. Frailty is one of the most pressing issues facing older adults. The purpose of this study was to explore the interrelationship between health literacy, social support, depression, and frailty among older patients with hypertension and diabetes in China. No studies have investigated the mediating effects of social support and depression between health literacy and frailty. The findings of this study can be applied to help ameliorate frailty in older hypertensive and diabetic patients. Data were collected from 637 older hypertensive and diabetic patients aged 65 years and older in Sichuan Province, China. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to test the hypothesized relationship among the variables. The results showed that 42.4% of the participants suffered from frailty. The mean scores for health literacy, social support, depression, and frailty were 13.6 ± 5.7, 35.7 ± 6.5, 4.0 ± 3.4, and 3.5 ± 2.1, respectively. Social support had a direct negative association with frailty (β = −0.128, 95%CI: [−0.198, −0.056]), and depression had a direct positive association with frailty (β = 0.326, 95%CI: [0.229, 0.411]), while social support had no direct association with depression. Health literacy had a direct positive association with social support (β = 0.151, 95%CI: [0.077, 0.224]) and a direct negative association with depression (β = −0.173, 95%CI: [−0.246, −0.1]), while health literacy had an indirect negative association with frailty through the mediating effect of social support and depression. To mitigate frailty in older patients with hypertension and diabetes, measures that provide social support, and enhance health literacy, while alleviating depression, should be considered, along with greater attention to patients who are divorced, widowed, or unmarried, those with comorbidities, and those with lower socioeconomic status.

Main Risk Factors Related to Activities of Daily Living in Non-Dialysis Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease Stage 3-5: A Case-Control Study

Introduction

Elderly people are at increased risk of falls, disability and death due to reduced functional reserve, decline in multiple systems functions, which affects their activities of daily living (ADL) and eventually develop into frailty. The ADL assessment is conducive to early detection to avoid further serious situations. Previous studies on patients’ activities of daily living with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are mainly focused on dialysis patients. Little information is available on non-dialysis patients.

Patients and Methods

A total of 303 elderly patients with CKD stage 3–5 who were admitted to our hospital were selected. ADL evaluation was performed on patients at admission, with Barthel index (BI) as the evaluation tool. They were divided into two groups based on BI (≥60 and <60). Demographic information, lifestyle and clinical profile were collected. The risk factors related to ADL were analyzed by univariate and multivariate models.

Results

The data of 303 patients enrolled in this study were analyzed. The average age of patients was 84.48± 7.14 years and 62.05% were male. There were 88 patients (29.04%) in BI <60 group and 215 patients (70.96%) in the BI ≥60 group. The average age of subjects in the two groups was 87.47 ± 5.85 years and 83.26± 7.28 years, respectively. On univariate analysis, ADL impairment was associated with many factors, such as age, body mass index, blood lipid, heart rate, smoking history, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), hemoglobin, serum albumin, BNP, eGFR, etc. Multivariate logistic regression showed that age (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.00–1.17, P=0.0390), Charlson comorbidity index (OR 4.75, 95% CI 1.17–19.30, P=0.0295), and serum albumin (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.70–0.92, P=0.0012) were the independent risk factors of ADL impairment.

Conclusion

Decline of ADL in CKD patients was independently correlated with age, Charlson comorbidity index and serum albumin. ADL and its influential factors in the elderly CKD patients deserve further attention.