Informing Amphibian Conservation Efforts with Abundance-Based Metapopulation Models

Size, connectivity and edge effects of stream habitats explain spatio-temporal variation in brown trout (Salmo trutta) density

Ecological theory postulates that the size and isolation of habitat patches impact the colonization/extinction dynamics that determine community species richness and population persistence. Given the key role of lotic habitats for life-history completion in rheophilic fish, evaluating how the distribution of swift-flowing habitats affects the abundance and dynamics of subpopulations is essential. Using extensive electrofishing data, we show that merging island biogeography with meta-population theory, where lotic habitats are considered as islands in a lentic matrix, can explain spatio-temporal variation in occurrence and density of brown trout (Salmo trutta). Subpopulations in larger and less isolated lotic habitat patches had higher average densities and smaller between-year density fluctuations. Larger lotic habitat patches also had a lower predicted risk of excessive zero-catches, indicative of lower extinction risk. Trout density further increased with distance from the edge of adjacent lentic habitats with predator (Esox lucius) presence, suggesting that edge- and matrix-related mortality contributes to the observed patterns. These results can inform the prioritization of sites for habitat restoration, dam removal and reintroduction by highlighting the role of suitable habitat size and connectivity in population abundance and stability for riverine fish populations.

Estimation of breeding probability can make monitoring data more revealing: a case study of amphibians

Monitoring programs serve to detect trends in the distribution and abundance of species. To do so, monitoring programs often use static state variables. Dynamic state variables that describe population dynamics might be more valuable because they allow for a mechanistic understanding of the processes that lead to population trends. We fit multistate occupancy models to data from a country-wide multispecies amphibian occupancy monitoring program and estimated occupancy and breeding probabilities. If breeding probabilities are determinants of occupancy dynamics, then they may serve in monitoring programs as state variables that describe dynamic processes. The results showed that breeding probabilities were low and that a large proportion of the populations had to be considered to be non-breeding populations (i.e., populations where adults are present but no breeding occurs). For some species, the majority of populations were non-breeding populations. We found that non-breeding populations have lower persistence probabilities than populations where breeding occurs. Breeding probabilities may thus explain trends in occupancy but they might also explain other ecological phenomena, such as the success of invasive species, which had high breeding probabilities. Signs of breeding, i.e., the presence of eggs and larvae, were often hard to detect. Importantly, non-breeding populations also had low detection probabilities, perhaps because they had lower abundances. We suggest that monitoring programs should invest more in the detection of life history stages indicative of breeding, and also into the detection of non-breeding populations. We conclude that breeding probability should be used as a state variable in monitoring programs because it can lead to deeper insights into the processes driving occupancy dynamics.