Glucose-Lowering Therapy in Patients With Postpancreatitis Diabetes Mellitus: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

Prediction of pancreatic cancer risk in patients with new-onset diabetes using a machine learning approach based on routine biochemical parameters

OBJECTIVE

To develop a machine-learning model that can predict the risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in people with new-onset diabetes (NOD).

METHODS

From a population-based sample of individuals with NOD aged >50 years, patients with pancreatic cancer-related diabetes (PCRD), defined as NOD followed by a PDAC diagnosis within 3 years, were included (n = 716). These PCRD patients were randomly matched in a 1:1 ratio with individuals having NOD. Data from Danish national health registries were used to develop a random forest model to distinguish PCRD from Type 2 diabetes. The model was based on age, gender, and parameters derived from feature engineering on trajectories of routine biochemical variables. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) and relative risk scores.

RESULTS

The most discriminative model included 20 features and achieved a ROC-AUC of 0.78 (CI:0.75-0.83). Compared to the general NOD population, the relative risk for PCRD was 20-fold increase for the 1 % of patients predicted by the model to have the highest cancer risk (3-year cancer risk of 12 % and sensitivity of 20 %). Age was the most discriminative single feature, followed by the rate of change in haemoglobin A1c and the latest plasma triglyceride level. When the prediction model was restricted to patients with PDAC diagnosed six months after diabetes diagnosis, the ROC-AUC was 0.74 (CI:0.69-0.79).

CONCLUSION

In a population-based setting, a machine-learning model utilising information on age, sex and trajectories of routine biochemical variables demonstrated good discriminative ability between PCRD and Type 2 diabetes.

Risk factors for diabetes mellitus after acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Within 5 years of having acute pancreatitis (AP), approximately 20% of patients develop diabetes mellitus (DM), which later increases to approximately 40%. Some studies suggest that the prevalence of prediabetes (PD) and/or DM can grow as high as 59% over time. However, information on risk factors is limited. We aimed to identify risk factors for developing PD or DM following AP.

Methods

We systematically searched three databases up to 4 September 2023 extracting direct, within-study comparisons of risk factors on the rate of new-onset PD and DM in AP patients. When PD and DM event rates could not be separated, we reported results for this composite outcome as PD/DM. Meta-analysis was performed using the random-effects model to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

Of the 61 studies identified, 50 were included in the meta-analysis, covering 76,797 participants. The studies reported on 79 risk factors, and meta-analysis was feasible for 34 risk factor and outcome pairs. The odds of developing PD/DM was significantly higher after severe and moderately severe AP (OR: 4.32; CI: 1.76-10.60) than mild AP. Hypertriglyceridemic AP etiology (OR: 3.27; CI: 0.17-63.91) and pancreatic necrosis (OR: 5.53; CI: 1.59-19.21) were associated with a higher risk of developing PD/DM. Alcoholic AP etiology (OR: 1.82; CI: 1.09-3.04), organ failure (OR: 3.19; CI: 0.55-18.64), recurrent AP (OR: 1.89; CI: 0.95-3.77), obesity (OR: 1.85; CI: 1.43-2.38), chronic kidney disease (OR: 2.10; CI: 1.85-2.38), liver cirrhosis (OR: 2.48; CI: 0.18-34.25), and dyslipidemia (OR: 1.82; CI: 0.68-4.84) were associated with a higher risk of developing DM.

Discussion

Severe and moderately severe AP, alcoholic and hypertriglyceridemic etiologies, pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, recurrent acute pancreatitis and comorbidities of obesity, chronic kidney disease liver disease, and dyslipidemia are associated with a higher risk of developing PD or DM.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier CRD42021281983.

Metformin treatment is associated with reduced risk of hypoglycaemia, major adverse cardiovascular events, and all-cause mortality in patients with post-pancreatitis diabetes mellitus: a nationwide cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Post-pancreatitis diabetes mellitus (PPDM) is a frequent complication of pancreatitis and is associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes. Metformin is recommended for the treatment of PPDM, but evidence of its risk-benefit profile is limited. In a pharmaco-epidemiologic study, we investigated the association between metformin treatment and adverse outcomes in patients with PPDM.

DESIGN AND METHODS

In a Danish nationwide population-based cohort study, we included adults (≥18 years) with incident PPDM or type 2 diabetes between 2009 and 2018. Post-pancreatitis diabetes mellitus was categorised into acute and chronic subtypes (PPDM-A and PPDM-C). Associations between metformin treatment and severe hypoglycaemia, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and all-cause mortality were examined across the diabetes subgroups using Cox regression analysis. Treatments with metformin, insulin, and other glucose-lowering therapies were handled as time-varying exposures.

RESULTS

We included 222 337 individuals with new-onset type 2 diabetes and 3781 with PPDM, of whom 2305 (61%) were classified as PPDM-A and 1476 (39%) as PPDM-C. Treatment with metformin was associated with a lower risk of severe hypoglycaemia (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.41, 95% CI 0.27-0.62, P < .0001), MACE (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.60-0.92, P = .0071), and all-cause mortality (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.49-0.64, P < .0001) in patients with PPDM. In sensitivity analyses and among individuals with type 2 diabetes, metformin treatment exhibited comparable trends of risk reduction.

CONCLUSIONS

Metformin is associated with a lower risk of adverse outcomes, including all-cause mortality in patients with PPDM, supporting the use of metformin as a glucose-lowering therapy for these patients.

Metabolic Sequelae: The Pancreatitis Zeitgeist of the 21st Century

Holistic management of pancreatitis means that gastroenterologists in the 21st Century should think beyond improving in-hospital outcomes of pancreatitis alone. In particular, there is considerable room for optimizing the management of new-onset diabetes, exocrine pancreatic insufficiency, and other metabolic sequelae of pancreatitis. The present article provides state-of-the-art information on classification, terminology, and burden of the common sequelae of pancreatitis. A high-risk group of patients with pancreatitis is identified, which is positioned to benefit the most from the metabolic sequelae surveillance program introduced in this article. The program involves continuous follow-up after pancreatitis diagnosis, with the focus on early identification of new-onset diabetes after pancreatitis and exocrine pancreatic insufficiency. The metabolic sequelae surveillance program is scalable and has the potential to reduce the burden of pancreatitis through tertiary prevention in the decades to come.

Risk of pancreatic cancer in people with new-onset diabetes: A Danish nationwide population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

New onset diabetes (NOD) in people 50 years or older may indicate underlying pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The cumulative incidence of PDAC among people with NOD remains uncertain on a population-based level.

METHODS

This was a nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study based on the Danish national health registries. We investigated the 3-year cumulative incidence of PDAC in people 50 years or older with NOD. We further characterised people with pancreatic cancer-related diabetes (PCRD) in relation to demographic and clinical characteristics, including trajectories of routine biochemical parameters, using people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) as a comparator group.

RESULTS

During a 21-year observation period, we identified 353,970 people with NOD. Among them, 2105 people were subsequently diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years (0.59%, 95% CI [0.57-0.62%]). People with PCRD were older than people with T2D at diabetes diagnosis (median age 70.9 vs. 66.0 years (P < 0.001) and had a higher burden of comorbidities (P = 0.007) and more prescriptions of medications used to treat cardiovascular diseases (all P < 0.001). Distinct trajectories of HbA1c and plasma triglycerides were observed in PCRD vs. T2D, with group differences observed for up to three years prior to NOD diagnosis for HbA1c and up to two years for plasma triglyceride levels.

CONCLUSIONS

The 3-year cumulative incidence of PDAC is approximately 0.6% among people 50 years or older with NOD in a nationwide population-based setting. Compared to T2D, people with PCRD are characterised by distinct demographic and clinical profiles, including distinctive trajectories of plasma HbA1c and triglyceride levels.

Diabetes of the Exocrine Pancreas: Implications for Pharmacological Management

Post-pancreatitis diabetes mellitus, pancreatic cancer-related diabetes, and cystic fibrosis-related diabetes are often underappreciated. As a result, a substantial proportion of people with these sub-types of diabetes receive antidiabetic medications that may be suboptimal, if not harmful, in the context of their underlying disease of the exocrine pancreas. The present article delineates both classical (biguanides, insulin, sulfonylureas, α-glucosidase inhibitors, thiazolidinediones, and meglitinides) and newer (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, amylin analogs, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors, D2 receptor agonists, bile acid sequestrants, and dual glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide receptor co-agonists) therapies and provides recommendations for managing people with diabetes of the exocrine pancreas based on the most up-to-date clinical evidence. Also, several emerging directions (lipid-enriched pathways, Y4 receptor agonism, glucagon-like peptide-1 and glucagon receptor co-agonism) are presented with a view to informing the process of new drug discovery and development.

Number of recurrences is significantly associated with the post-acute pancreatitis diabetes mellitus in a population with hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Twenty-three percent of patients are diagnosed with diabetes mellitus after the first episode of acute pancreatitis. The incidence of post-acute pancreatitis diabetes mellitus is significantly higher than that of type 1 diabetes mellitus. Some studies have concluded that the all-cause mortality and worse prognosis of diabetes after pancreatitis are higher. We predicted that number of recurrences of pancreatitis would be significantly associated with the incidences of metabolic syndrome, abdominal obesity, and post-acute pancreatitis diabetes mellitus.

METHODS

Patients admitted to our hospital for hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis from 2013-2021 were selected for a cross-sectional study. Statistical analysis methods were used to analyze the effect of recurrences on the long-term prognosis of patients with hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis.

RESULTS

In this study, 101 patients with hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis were included: 60 (59.41%) in the recurrent acute pancreatitis group and 41 (40.59%) in the only one episode of acute pancreatitis group. Among all hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis patients, approximately 61.4% were diagnosed with abdominal obesity, 33.7% of patients are diagnosed with metabolic syndrome, 34.7% of patients are diagnosed with diabetes mellitus, and 21.8% of patients are diagnosed with post-acute pancreatitis diabetes mellitus. Recurrent acute pancreatitis were independent risk factors for post-acute pancreatitis diabetes mellitus in patients with hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis (odds ratio [OR] = 3.964, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.230-12.774) and the risk of post-acute pancreatitis diabetes mellitus in patients with three or more recurrent episodes was 6.607 times higher than that in patients without recurrent episodes (OR = 6.607, 95% CI = 1.412-30.916).

CONCLUSIONS

Recurrence is an independent risk factor for the development of post-acute pancreatitis diabetes mellitus and is significantly associated with the number of recurrences.

Discrepancies in type of first major osteoporotic fracture and anti-osteoporotic therapy in elderly people with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A retrospective Danish cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Subjects with diabetes mellitus have an increased risk of fractures. We aimed to identify discrepancies in the first type of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and anti-osteoporotic therapy between subjects with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and subjects without diabetes. Methods and research design. We conducted a retrospective national cohort study by access to all discharge diagnoses (ICD-10 system) and redeemed drug prescriptions (ATC classification system). We included all subjects alive and Danish citizens in 2010 and identified subjects with T2D diagnosed after the age of 50 between 1998 and 2018. Only subjects with a MOF after the index date were included in the main analysis. The type of MOF was identified by diagnosis codes and categorized into Humerus, Forearm, Spine, and Hip. Multinomial logistic regression modeling was used to assess the predicted probability changes in MOF type between T2D and control subjects. Data on first anti-osteoporotic therapy after the MOF was assessed by redeemed drug prescriptions. Mortality and time to therapy after the MOF were evaluated by cox proportional hazards.

RESULT

We included 26,588 subjects with T2D and 97,982 subjects without diabetes. The mean age was age 69.33 (±10.34) for T2D and 69.85 (±10.19) for control subjects. The cohort was primarily females (67 %). Subjects with T2D had a higher probability of hip (3.98 % [95 % CI 3.29; 4.67]) and humerus (2.82 % [95 % CI 2.17; 3.46]) fractures as the first MOF compared to control subjects. However, the probability of forearm fractures as the first MOF was 6.77 % (95 % CI 6.08; 7.46) lower among subjects with T2D. The multiple adjusted hazard ratio for anti-osteoporotic treatment after the first MOF was 0.80 (95 % CI 0.77; 0.88) for T2D compared to controls among treatment-naïve subjects.

CONCLUSION

Forearm fractures were the most frequent type of MOF and were more prevalent in control subjects. Subjects with T2D had a significantly higher probability of hip and humerus fractures as the first MOF but had a 20 % lower chance of anti-osteoporotic treatment afterwards.

The spectrum of diabetes in acute and chronic pancreatitis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To discuss the spectrum of diabetes related to acute and chronic pancreatitis (which are types of pancreatogenic diabetes) and its overlapping features with type 1 and type 2 diabetes.

RECENT FINDINGS

Patients with diabetes related to acute and chronic pancreatitis present clinically within a spectrum of overlapping features with other forms of diabetes. In this spectrum, glucose metabolism alterations range from increased insulin resistance following acute pancreatitis (resembling type 2 diabetes) towards a permanent loss of beta-cell function and impaired insulin secretion in end-stage chronic pancreatitis. Overlapping features with type 1 diabetes (beta cell autoantibodies) and type 2 diabetes (obesity, dyslipidemia, and hereditary/genetic factors) contribute to the heterogeneity of this spectrum.

SUMMARY

Pancreatogenic diabetes secondary to acute or chronic pancreatitis is a heterogeneous entity with a variable clinical presentation, including many cases that are misdiagnosed and treated as type 2 diabetes. This is problematic as pancreatogenic diabetes is associated with a poor prognosis and entails special considerations for management. Recent discoveries showing overlapping features with type 1 and type 2 diabetes along with an improved understanding of its pathophysiology are expected to improve the diagnosis and treatment of these and other forms of pancreatogenic diabetes.

Risk of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events, Severe Hypoglycemia, and All-Cause Mortality in Postpancreatitis Diabetes Mellitus Versus Type 2 Diabetes: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Postpancreatitis diabetes mellitus (PPDM) is a frequent complication of pancreatitis and associates with poor glycemic control. We investigated the risk of adverse diabetes-related outcomes in PPDM compared with type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In this Danish population-based cohort study, we included adults (>18 years) with incident PPDM or type 2 diabetes between 1998 and 2018 through national health registries. PPDM was further divided into acute (PPDM-A) and chronic (PPDM-C) subtypes. We ascertained risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), severe hypoglycemia, and all-cause mortality as well as incidence rates of severe hypoglycemia. We compared risk and incidence rates across diabetes subgroups using multivariate Cox and Poisson regression analyses.

RESULTS

We identified 383,325 people with incident type 2 diabetes, 3,418 with PPDM-A, and 2,461 with PPDM-C. Compared with type 2 diabetes, PPDM-C was associated with increased risks of severe hypoglycemia (hazard ratio [HR] 5.27, 95% CI 4.62-6.00, P < 0.001) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.45-1.64, P < 0.001). Similar patterns were observed for people with PPDM-A. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for severe hypoglycemia were increased in both PPDM-C (IRR 7.38, 95% CI 6.75-8.08, P < 0.001) and PPDM-A (IRR 3.76, 95% CI 3.36-4.21, P < 0.001) compared with type 2 diabetes. Findings were consistent in an analysis restricted to people on insulin and in an analysis including pancreatitis patients without diabetes as comparator group.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with type 2 diabetes, PPDM is associated with excess risk of adverse diabetes-related outcomes. This has important implications for management.

Glucose variability during the early course of acute pancreatitis predicts two‐year probability of new‐onset diabetes: A prospective longitudinal cohort study

Background

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is the largest contributor to diabetes of the exocrine pancreas. However, there is no accurate predictor at the time of hospitalisation for AP to identify individuals at high risk for new‐onset diabetes.

Objective

To investigate the accuracy of indices of glucose variability (GV) during the early course of AP in predicting the glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) trajectories during follow‐up.

Methods

This was a prospective longitudinal cohort study of patients without diabetes at the time of hospitalisation for AP. Fasting blood glucose was regularly measured over the first 72 h of hospital admission. The study endpoint was the HbA1c trajectories ‐ high‐increasing, moderate‐stable, normal‐stable ‐ over two years of follow‐up. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were conducted to investigate the associations between several common GV indices and the HbA1c trajectories, adjusting for covariates (age, sex, and body mass index). A sensitivity analysis constrained to patients with non‐necrotising AP was conducted.

Results

A total of 120 consecutive patients were studied. All patients in the high‐increasing HbA1c trajectory group had new‐onset diabetes at 18 and 24 months of follow‐up. Glycaemic lability index had the strongest significant direct association (adjusted odds ratio = 13.69; p = 0.040) with the high‐increasing HbA1c trajectory. High admission blood glucose, standard deviation of blood glucose, and average real variability significantly increased the patients' odds of taking the high‐increasing HbA1c trajectory by at least two‐times. Admission blood glucose, but not the other GV indices, had a significant direct association (adjusted odds ratio = 1.46; p = 0.034) with the moderate‐stable HbA1c trajectory. The above findings did not change materially in patients with non‐necrotising AP alone.

Conclusions

High GV during the early course of AP gives a prescient warning of worsening HbA1c pattern and new‐onset diabetes after hospital discharge. Determining GV during hospitalisation could be a relatively straightforward approach to early identification of individuals at high risk for new‐onset diabetes after AP.

Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) Is an Independent Risk Factor for Developing New-Onset Diabetes After Acute Pancreatitis: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study in Chinese Population

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies validated frequent glucose dysfunction in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). However, the prevalence of new-onset diabetes in individuals after a first episode of AP varies widely among previous studies. This study aims to determine the incidence of post-acute pancreatitis diabetes mellitus (PPDM-A) in Chinese people and further identify potential risk factors that influence diabetes development in patients with AP.

METHODS

This was a multi-center retrospective cohort study including 6009 inpatients with a first attack of AP. A total of 1804 patients with AP without known endocrine pancreatic disorders or other pancreatic exocrine diseases were eligible for analysis. Data was collected from medical records by hospital information system and telephone follow-ups after discharge. The multiple logistic regression analysis was established to evaluate the potential influencing factors of PPDM-A.

RESULTS

The prevalence of newly diagnosed diabetes after a first episode of AP in China was 6.2%. Data showed that patients who developed PPDM-A were more likely to be younger (X² = 6.329, P = 0.012), experienced longer hospital stays (X² = 6.949, P = 0.008) and had a higher frequency of overweight or obesity (X² = 11.559, P = 0.003) compared to those with normal glycemia. The frequency of stress hyperglycemia on admission (X² = 53.815, P < 0.001), hyperlipidemia (X² = 33.594, P < 0.001) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) (X² = 36.335, P < 0.001) were significantly higher among individuals with PPDM-A compared with control group. Also, patients with PPDM-A were more likely to be hyperlipidemic AP (X² = 16.304, P = 0.001) and show a higher degree of severity (X² = 7.834, P = 0.020) and recurrence rate (X² = 26.908, P < 0.001) of AP compared to those without diabetes. In addition, multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that stress hyperglycemia, hyperlipidemia, NAFLD and repeated attacks of AP were the independent influence factors for developing PPDM-A.

CONCLUSION

Our study first demonstrated the prevalence of secondary diabetes in Chinese patients after AP. The disorder of glucose metabolism in individuals with AP should be regularly evaluated in clinical practice. Further studies are needed to verify the relationship between liver and pancreas in keeping glucose homeostasis under AP condition.

The Efficacy of Alendronate Versus Denosumab on Major Osteoporotic Fracture Risk in Elderly Patients With Diabetes Mellitus: A Danish Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Patients with diabetes mellitus have an increased risk of fractures; however, the underlying mechanism is largely unknown. We aimed to investigate whether the risk of major osteoporotic fractures in diabetes patients differs between subjects initiated with alendronate and denosumab, respectively.

METHODS AND RESEARCH DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective nationwide cohort study through access to all discharge diagnoses (ICD-10 system) from the National Danish Patient Registry along with all redeemed drug prescriptions (ATC classification system) from the Health Service Prescription Registry. We identified all subjects with a diabetes diagnosis between 2000 and 2018 and collected data on the first new prescription of anti-osteoporotic treatment between 2011 and 2018. Exposure was defined as either alendronate or denosumab treatment initiated after diabetes diagnosis. Outcome information was collected by identification of all major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) diagnoses, i.e., hip, spine, forearm, and humerus, from exposure until 2018 or censoring by emigration or death. The risk of fracture was calculated as hazard ratios (HR) using multiply adjusted Cox proportional models with death as a competing risk.

RESULTS

We included 8,745 subjects initiated with either alendronate (n = 8,255) or denosumab (n = 490). The cohort consisted of subjects with a mean age of 73.62 (SD ± 9.27) years, primarily females (69%) and suffering mainly from type 2 diabetes (98.22%) with a median diabetes duration at baseline of 5.45 years (IQR 2.41-9.19). Those in the denosumab group were older (mean 75.60 [SD ± 9.72] versus 73.51 [SD ± 9.23] years), had a higher proportion of women (81% versus 68%, RR 1.18 [95% CI 1.13-1.24], and were more comorbid (mean CCI 2.68 [95% CI 2.47-2.88] versus 1.98 [95% CI 1.93-2.02]) compared to alendronate initiators. In addition, denosumab users had a higher prevalence of previous fractures (64% versus 46%, RR 1.38 [95% CI 1.28-1.48]). The adjusted HR for any MOF after treatment initiation with denosumab was 0.89 (95% CI 0.78-1.02) compared to initiation with alendronate.

CONCLUSION

The risk of incident MOF among subjects with diabetes was similar between those initially treated with alendronate and denosumab. These findings indicate that the two treatment strategies are equally effective in preventing osteoporotic fractures in subjects with diabetes.