Lactation modeling and the effects of rotational crossbreeding on milk production traits and milk-spectra-predicted enteric methane emissions

Rotational crossbreeding has not been widely studied in relation to the enteric methane emissions of dairy cows, nor has the variation in emissions during lactation been modeled. Milk infrared spectra could be used to predict proxies of methane emissions in dairy cows. Therefore, the objective of this work was to study the effects of crossbreeding on the predicted infrared proxies of methane emissions and the variation in the latter during lactation. Milk samples were taken once from 1,059 cows reared in 2 herds, and infrared spectra of the milk were used to predict milk fat (mean ± SD; 3.79 ± 0.81%) and protein (3.68 ± 0.36%) concentrations, yield (21.4 ± 1.5 g/kg dry matter intake), methane intensity (14.2 ± 2.0 g/kg corrected milk), and daily methane production (358 ± 108 g/d). Of these cows, 620 were obtained from a 3-breed (Holstein, Montbéliarde, and Viking Red) rotational mating system, and the rest were purebred Holsteins. Milk production data and methane traits were analyzed using a nonlinear model that included the fixed effects of herd, genetic group, and parity, and the 4 parameters (a, b, c, and k) of a lactation curve modeled using the Wilmink function. Milk infrared spectra were found to be useful for direct prediction of qualitative proxies, such as methane yield and intensity, but not quantitative traits, such as daily methane production, which appears to be better estimated (450 ± 125 g/d) by multiplying a measured daily milk yield by infrared-predicted methane intensity. Lactation modeling of methane traits showed daily methane production to have a zenith curve, similar to that of milk yield but with a delayed peak (53 vs. 37 d in milk), whereas methane intensity is characterized by an upward curve that increases rapidly during the first third of lactation and then slowly till the end of lactation (10.5 g/kg at 1 d in milk to 15.2 g/kg at 300 d in milk). However, lactation modeling was not useful in explaining methane yield, which is almost constant during lactation. Lastly, the methane yield and intensity of cows from 3-breed rotational crossbreeding are not greater, and their methane production is lower than that of purebred Holsteins (452 vs. 477 g/d). Given the greater longevity of crossbred cows, and their lower replacement rate, rotational crossbreeding could be a way of mitigating the environmental impact of milk production.

Predicting methane emissions of individual grazing dairy cows from spectral analyses of their milk samples

Data on the enteric methane emissions of individual cows are useful not just in assisting management decisions and calculating herd inventories but also as inputs for animal genetic evaluations. Data generation for many animal characteristics, including enteric methane emissions, can be expensive and time consuming, so being able to extract as much information as possible from available samples or data sources is worthy of investigation. The objective of the present study was to attempt to predict individual cow methane emissions from the information contained within milk samples, specifically the spectrum of light transmittance across different wavelengths of the mid-infrared (MIR) region of the electromagnetic spectrum. A total of 93,888 individual spot measures of methane (i.e., individual samples of an animal's breath when using the GreenFeed technology) from 384 lactations on 277 grazing dairy cows were collapsed into weekly averages expressed as grams per day; each weekly average coincided with a MIR spectral analysis of a morning or evening individual cow milk sample. Associations between the spectra and enteric methane measures were performed separately using partial least squares regression or neural networks with different tuning parameters evaluated. Several alternative definitions of the enteric methane phenotype (i.e., average enteric methane in the 6 d preceding or 6 d following taking the milk sample or the average of the 6 d before and after the milk sample, all of which also included the enteric methane emitted on the day of milk sampling), the candidate model features (e.g., milk yield, milk composition, and milk MIR) as well as validation strategy (i.e., cross-validation or leave-one-experimental treatment-out) were evaluated. Irrespective of the validation method, the prediction accuracy was best when the average of the milk MIR from the morning and evening milk sample was used and the prediction model was developed using neural networks; concurrently including milk yield and days in milk in the prediction model generated superior predictions relative to just the spectral information alone. Furthermore, prediction accuracy was best when the enteric methane phenotype was the average of at least 20 methane spot measures across a 6-d period flanking each side of the milk sample with associated spectral data. Based on the strategy that achieved the best accuracy of prediction, the correlation between the actual and predicted daily methane emissions when based on 4-fold cross-validation varied per validation stratum from 0.68 to 0.75; the corresponding range when validated on each of the 8 different experimental treatments focusing on alternative pasture grazing systems represented in the dataset varied from 0.55 to 0.71. The root mean square error of prediction across the 4-folds of cross-validation was 37.46 g/d, whereas the root mean square error averaged across all folds of leave-one-treatment-out was 37.50 g/d. Results suggest that even with the likely measurement errors contained within the MIR spectrum and gold standard enteric methane phenotype, enteric methane can be reasonably well predicted from the infrared spectrum of milk samples. What is yet to be established, however, is whether (a) genetic variation exists in this predicted enteric methane phenotype and (b) selection on estimates of genetic merit for this phenotype translate to actual phenotypic differences in enteric methane emissions.

Association between Days Open and Parity, Calving Season or Milk Spectral Data

Milk spectral data on 2118 cows from nine herds located in northern China were used to access the association of days open (DO). Meanwhile, the parity and calving season of dairy cows were also studied to characterize the difference in DO between groups of these two cow-level factors. The result of the linear mixed-effects model revealed that no significant differences were observed between the parity groups. However, a significant difference in DO exists between calving season groups. The interaction between parity and calving season presented that primiparous cows always exhibit lower DO among all calving season groups, and the variation in DO among parity groups was especially clearer in winter. Survival analysis revealed that the difference in DO between calving season groups might be caused by the different P/AI at the first TAI. In addition, the summer group had a higher chance of conception in the subsequent services than other groups, implying that the micro-environment featured by season played a critical role in P/AI. A weak linkage between DO and wavenumbers ranging in the mid-infrared region was detected. In summary, our study revealed that the calving season of dairy cows can be used to optimize the reproduction management. The potential application of mid-infrared spectroscopy in dairy cows needs to be further developed.

Methodological guidelines: Cow milk mid-infrared spectra to predict GreenFeed enteric methane emissions

Various methodological protocols were tested on milk samples from cows fed diets affecting both methanogenesis and milk synthesis to identify the best approach for the prediction of GreenFeed system (GF) measured methane (CH₄) emissions by milk mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy. The models developed were also tested on a data set from cows fed chemical inhibitors of CH₄ emission [3-nitrooxypropanol (3NOP)] that just marginally affect milk composition. A total of 129 primiparous and multiparous Holstein cows fed diets with different methanogenic potential were considered. Individual milk yield (MY) and dry matter intake were recorded daily, whereas fat- and protein-corrected milk (FPCM) was recorded twice a week. The MIR spectra from 2 consecutive milkings were collected twice a week. Twenty CH₄ spot measurements with GF were taken as the basic measurement unit (BMU) of CH₄. The equations were built using partial least squares regression by splitting the database into calibration and validation data sets (excluding 3NOP samples). Models were developed for milk MIR spectra by milking and on day spectra obtained by averaging spectra from 2 consecutive milkings. Models based on day spectra were calibrated by using CH₄ reference data for a measurement duration of 1, 2, 3, or 4 BMU. Models built from the average of the day spectra collected during the corresponding CH₄ measurement periods were developed. Corrections of spectra by days in milk (DIM) and the inclusion of parity, MY, and FPCM as explanatory variables were tested as tools to improve model performance. Models built on day milk MIR spectra gave slightly better performances that those developed using spectra from a single milking. Long duration of CH₄ measurement by GF performed better than short duration: the coefficient of determination of validation (R²V) for CH₄ emissions expressed in grams per day were 0.60 vs. 0.52 for 4 and 1 BMU, respectively. When CH₄ emissions were expressed as grams per kilogram of dry of matter intake, grams per kilogram of MY, or grams per kilogram of FPCM, performance with a long duration also improved. Coupling GF reference data with the average of milk MIR spectra collected throughout the corresponding CH₄ measurement period gave better predictions than using day spectra (R²V = 0.70 vs. 0.60 for CH₄ as g/d on 4 BMU). Correcting the day spectra by DIM improved R²V compared with the equivalent DIM-uncorrected models (R²V = 0.67 vs. 0.60 for CH₄ as g/d on 4 BMU). Adding other phenotypic information as explanatory variables did not further improve the performance of models built on single day DIM-corrected spectra, whereas including MY (or FPCM) improved the performance of models built on the average of spectra (uncorrected by DIM) recorded during the CH₄ measurement period (R²V = 0.73 vs. 0.70 for CH₄ as g/d on 4 BMU). When validating the models on the 3NOP data set, predictions were poor without (R²V = 0.13 for CH₄ as g/d on 1 BMU) or with (R²V = 0.31 for CH₄ as g/d on 1 BMU) integration of 3NOP data in the models. Thus, specific models would be required for CH₄ prediction when cows receive chemical inhibitors of CH₄ emissions not affecting milk composition.

Predicting enteric methane emission in lactating Holsteins based on reference methane data collected by the GreenFeed system

Methane emission is not included in the current breeding goals for dairy cattle mainly due to the expense and difficulty in obtaining sufficient data to generate accurate estimates of the relevant traits. While several models have been developed to predict methane emission from milk spectra using reference methane data obtained by the respiration chamber, SF6 and sniffer methods, the prediction of methane emission from milk mid-infrared (MIR) spectra using reference methane data collected by the GreenFeed system has not yet been explored. Methane emission was monitored for 151 cows using the GreenFeed system. Prediction models were developed for daily and average (for the trial period of 12 or 14 days) methane production (g/d), yield (g/kg DM intake (DMI)) and intensity (g/kg of fat- and protein-corrected milk) using partial least squares regression. The predictions were evaluated in 100 repeated validation cycles, where animals were randomly partitioned into training (80%) and testing (20%) populations for each cycle. The best performing model was observed for average methane intensity using MIR, parity and DMI with validation coefficient of determination (R²_val) and RMSE of prediction of 0.66 and 4.7 g/kg of fat- and protein-corrected milk, respectively. The accuracy of the best models for average methane production and average methane yield were poor (R²_val = 0.28 and 0.12, respectively). A lower accuracy of prediction was observed for methane intensity and production (R²_val = 0.42 and 0.17) when daily records were used while prediction for methane yield was comparable to that for average methane yield (R²_val = 0.16). Our results suggest the potential to predict methane intensity with moderate accuracy. In this case, prediction models for average methane values were generally better than for daily measures when using the GreenFeed system to obtain reference methane emission measurements.

Milk metabolome reveals variations on enteric methane emissions from dairy cows fed a specific inhibitor of the methanogenesis pathway

Metabolome profiling in biological fluids is an interesting approach for exploring markers of methane emissions in ruminants. In this study, a multiplatform metabolomics approach was used for investigating changes in milk metabolic profiles related to methanogenesis in dairy cows. For this purpose, 25 primiparous Holstein cows at similar lactation stage were fed the same diet supplemented with (treated, n = 12) or without (control, n = 13) a specific antimethanogenic additive that reduced enteric methane production by 23% with no changes in intake, milk production, and health status. The study lasted 6 wk, with sampling and measures performed in wk 5 and 6. Milk samples were analyzed using 4 complementary analytical methods, including 2 untargeted (nuclear magnetic resonance and liquid chromatography coupled to a quadrupole-time-of-flight mass spectrometer) and 2 targeted (liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and gas chromatography coupled to a flame ionization detector) approaches. After filtration, variable selection and normalization data from each analytical platform were then analyzed using multivariate orthogonal partial least square discriminant analysis. All 4 analytical methods were able to differentiate cows from treated and control groups. Overall, 38 discriminant metabolites were identified, which affected 10 metabolic pathways including methane metabolism. Some of these metabolites such as dimethylsulfoxide, dimethylsulfone, and citramalic acid, detected by nuclear magnetic resonance or liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry methods, originated from the rumen microbiota or had a microbial-host animal co-metabolism that could be associated with methanogenesis. Also, discriminant milk fatty acids detected by targeted gas chromatography were mostly of ruminal microbial origin. Other metabolites and metabolic pathways significantly affected were associated with AA metabolism. These findings provide new insight on the potential role of milk metabolites as indicators of enteric methane modifications in dairy cows.

Improving robustness and accuracy of predicted daily methane emissions of dairy cows using milk mid-infrared spectra

BACKGROUND

A robust proxy for estimating methane (CH₄ ) emissions of individual dairy cows would be valuable especially for selective breeding. This study aimed to improve the robustness and accuracy of prediction models that estimate daily CH₄ emissions from milk Fourier transform mid-infrared (FT-MIR) spectra by (i) increasing the reference dataset and (ii) adjusting for routinely recorded phenotypic information. Prediction equations for CH₄ were developed using a combined dataset including daily CH₄ measurements (n = 1089; g d^-1 ) collected using the SF₆ tracer technique (n = 513) and measurements using respiration chambers (RC, n = 576). Furthermore, in addition to the milk FT-MIR spectra, the variables of milk yield (MY) on the test day, parity (P) and breed (B) of cows were included in the regression analysis as explanatory variables.

RESULTS

Models developed based on a combined RC and SF₆ dataset predicted the expected pattern in CH₄ values (in g d^-1 ) during a lactation cycle, namely an increase during the first weeks after calving followed by a gradual decrease until the end of lactation. The model including MY, P and B information provided the best prediction results (cross-validation statistics: R² = 0.68 and standard error = 57 g CH₄ d^-1 ).

CONCLUSIONS

The models developed accounted for more of the observed variability in CH₄ emissions than previously developed models and thus were considered more robust. This approach is suitable for large-scale studies (e.g. animal genetic evaluation) where robustness is paramount for accurate predictions across a range of animal conditions. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry.

Feeding Grazing Dairy Cows With Different Energy Sources on Recovery of Human-Edible Nutrients in Milk and Environmental Impact

The use of grazing systems for milk production is widely used globally because it is a lower-cost feeding system. However, under tropical conditions, the energy content of pastures became is a limitation to improve animal performance and efficiency while reducing the environmental impact. The objective of our study was to evaluate the impact of supplying different dietary sources of energy to lactating dairy cows grazing tropical pastures on the recovery of human-edible (HE) nutrients in milk and the environmental impact. Two experiments were conducted simultaneously. In experiment 1, forty early lactating dairy cows were used in a randomized block design. In experiment 2, four late-lactating rumen-cannulated dairy cows were used in a 4 × 4 Latin Square design. All cows had free access to pasture and treatments were applied individually as a concentrate supplement. Treatments were flint corn grain-processing method either as fine ground (FGC) or steam-flaked (SFC) associated with Ca salts of palm fatty acids supplementation either not supplemented (CON) or supplemented (CSPO). We observed that feeding cows with SFC markedly reduced urinary nitrogen excretion by 43%, and improved milk nitrogen efficiency by 17% when compared with FGC. Additionally, we also observed that feeding supplemental fat improved milk nitrogen efficiency by 17% compared with cows receiving CON diets. A tendency for decreased methane (CH4) per unit of milk (−31%), CH4 per unit of milk energy output (−29%), and CH4 per unit of milk protein output (−31%) was observed when CSPO was fed compared with CON. Additionally, SFC diets increased HE recovery of indispensable amino acids by 7–9% when compared with FGC diets, whereas feeding supplemental fat improved HE recovery of indispensable amino acids by 17–19% compared with CON. Altogether, this study increased our understanding of how manipulating energy sources in the dairy cow diet under tropical grazing conditions can benefit HE nutrient recovery and reduce nutrient excretion.

Genetic Parameters of Different FTIR-Enabled Phenotyping Tools Derived from Milk Fatty Acid Profile for Reducing Enteric Methane Emissions in Dairy Cattle

This study aimed to infer the genetic parameters of five enteric methane emissions (EME) predicted from milk infrared spectra (13 models). The reference values were estimated from milk fatty acid profiles (chromatography), individual model-cheese, and daily milk yield of 1158 Brown Swiss cows (85 farms). Genetic parameters were estimated, under a Bayesian framework, for EME reference traits and their infrared predictions. Heritability of predicted EME traits were similar to EME reference values for methane yield (CH₄/DM: 0.232-0.317) and methane intensity per kg of corrected milk (CH₄/CM: 0.177-0.279), smaller per kg cheese solids (CH₄/SO: 0.093-0.165), but greater per kg fresh cheese (CH₄/CU: 0.203-0.267) and for methane production (dCH₄: 0.195-0.232). We found good additive genetic correlations between infrared-predicted methane intensities and the reference values (0.73 to 0.93), less favorable values for CH₄/DM (0.45-0.60), and very variable for dCH₄ according to the prediction method (0.22 to 0.98). Easy-to-measure milk infrared-predicted EME traits, particularly CH₄/CM, CH₄/CU and dCH₄, could be considered in breeding programs aimed at the improvement of milk ecological footprint.

Infrared Spectrometry as a High-Throughput Phenotyping Technology to Predict Complex Traits in Livestock Systems

High-throughput phenotyping technologies are growing in importance in livestock systems due to their ability to generate real-time, non-invasive, and accurate animal-level information. Collecting such individual-level information can generate novel traits and potentially improve animal selection and management decisions in livestock operations. One of the most relevant tools used in the dairy and beef industry to predict complex traits is infrared spectrometry, which is based on the analysis of the interaction between electromagnetic radiation and matter. The infrared electromagnetic radiation spans an enormous range of wavelengths and frequencies known as the electromagnetic spectrum. The spectrum is divided into different regions, with near- and mid-infrared regions being the main spectral regions used in livestock applications. The advantage of using infrared spectrometry includes speed, non-destructive measurement, and great potential for on-line analysis. This paper aims to review the use of mid- and near-infrared spectrometry techniques as tools to predict complex dairy and beef phenotypes, such as milk composition, feed efficiency, methane emission, fertility, energy balance, health status, and meat quality traits. Although several research studies have used these technologies to predict a wide range of phenotypes, most of them are based on Partial Least Squares (PLS) and did not considered other machine learning (ML) techniques to improve prediction quality. Therefore, we will discuss the role of analytical methods employed on spectral data to improve the predictive ability for complex traits in livestock operations. Furthermore, we will discuss different approaches to reduce data dimensionality and the impact of validation strategies on predictive quality.

Between-cow variation in milk fatty acids associated with methane production

We evaluated the between-cow (b-cow) variation and repeatability in omasal and milk fatty acids (FA) related to methane (CH4) emission. The dataset was originated from 9 studies with rumen-cannulated dairy cows conducted using either a switch-back or a Latin square design. Production of CH4 per mole of VFA (Y_CH4VFA) was calculated based on VFA stoichiometry. Experiment, diet within experiment, period within experiment, and cow within experiment were considered as random factors. Empirical models were developed between the variables of interest by univariate and bivariate mixed model regression analysis. The variation associated with diet was higher than the b-cow variation with low repeatability (< 0.25) for milk odd- and branch-chain FA (OBCFA). Similarly, for de novo synthesized milk FA, diet variation was ~ 3-fold greater than the b-cow variation; repeatability for these FA was moderate to high (0.34-0.58). Also, for both cis-9 C18:1 and cis-9 cis-12 cis-15 C18:3 diet variation was more than double the b-cow variation, but repeatability was moderate. Among the de novo milk FA, C4:0 was positively related with stoichiometric Y_CH4VFA, while for OBCFA, anteiso C15:0 and C15:0 were negatively related with it. Notably, when analyzing the relationship between omasal FA and milk FA we observed positive intercept estimates for all the OBCFA, which may indicate endogenous post-ruminal synthesis of these FA, most likely in the mammary gland. For milk iso C13:0, iso C15:0, anteiso C15:0, and C15:0 were positively influenced by omasal proportion of their respective FA and by energy balance. In contrast, the concentration of milk C17:0, iso C18:0, C18:0, cis-11 C18:1, and cis-9 cis-12 cis-15 C18:3 were positively influenced by omasal proportion of their respective FA but negatively related to calculated energy balance. Our findings demonstrate that for most milk FA examined, a larger variation is attributed to diet than b-cow differences with low to moderate repeatability. While some milk FA were positively or negatively related with Y_CH4VFA, there was a pronounced effect of calculated energy balance on these estimates. Additionally, even though OBCFA have been indicated as markers of rumen function, our results suggest that endogenous synthesis of these FA may occur, which therefore, may limit the utilization of milk FA as a proxy for CH4 predictions for cows fed the same diet.

Large-scale phenotyping in dairy sector using milk MIR spectra: Key factors affecting the quality of predictions

Methods and technologies enabling the estimation at large scale of important traits for the dairy sector are of great interest. Those phenotypes are necessary to improve herd management, animal genetic evaluation, and milk quality control. In the recent years, the research was very active to predict new phenotypes from the mid-infrared (MIR) analysis of milk. Models were developed to predict phenotypes such as fine milk composition, milk technological properties or traits related to cow health, fertility and environmental impact. Most of models were developed within research contexts and often not designed for routine use. The implementation of models at a large scale to predict new traits of interest brings new challenges as the factors influencing the robustness of models are poorly documented. The first objective of this work is to highlight the impact on prediction accuracy of factors such as the variability of the spectral and reference data, the spectral regions used and the complexity of models. The second objective is to emphasize methods and indicators to evaluate the quality of models and the quality of predictions generated under routine conditions. The last objective is to outline the issues and the solutions linked with the use and transfer of models on large number of instruments. Based on partial least square regression and 10 datasets including milk MIR spectra and reference quantitative values for 57 traits of interest, the impact of the different factors is illustrated by evaluating the influence on the validation root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP). In the displayed examples, all factors, when well set up, increase the quality of predictions, with an improvement of the RMSEP ranging from 12% to 43%. This work also aims to underline the need for and the complementarity between different validation procedures, statistical parameters and quality assurance methods. Finally, when using and transferring models, the impact of the spectral standardization on the prediction reproducibility is highlighted with an improvement up to 86% with the tested models, and the monitoring of individual spectrometer stability over time appears essential. This list inspired from our experience is of course not exhaustive. The displayed results are only examples and not general rules and other aspects play a role in the quality of final predictions. However, this work highlights good practices, methods and indicators to increase and evaluate quality of phenotypes predicted at a large scale. The results obtained argue for the development of guidelines at international levels, as well as international collaborations in order to constitute large and robust datasets and enable the use of models in routine conditions.

The use of milk Fourier transform mid-infrared spectra and milk yield to estimate heat production as a measure of efficiency of dairy cows

Background

Transformation of feed energy ingested by ruminants into milk is accompanied by energy losses via fecal and urine excretions, fermentation gases and heat. Heat production may differ among dairy cows despite comparable milk yield and body weight. Therefore, heat production can be considered an indicator of metabolic efficiency and directly measured in respiration chambers. The latter is an accurate but time-consuming technique. In contrast, milk Fourier transform mid-infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy is an inexpensive high-throughput method and used to estimate different physiological traits in cows. Thus, this study aimed to develop a heat production prediction model using heat production measurements in respiration chambers, milk FTIR spectra and milk yield measurements from dairy cows.

Methods

Heat production was computed based on the animal’s consumed oxygen, and produced carbon dioxide and methane in respiration chambers. Heat production data included 168 24-h-observations from 64 German Holstein and 20 dual-purpose Simmental cows. Animals were milked twice daily at 07:00 and 16:30 h in the respiration chambers. Milk yield was determined to predict heat production using a linear regression. Milk samples were collected from each milking and FTIR spectra were obtained with MilkoScan FT 6000. The average or milk yield-weighted average of the absorption spectra from the morning and afternoon milking were calculated to obtain a computed spectrum. A total of 288 wavenumbers per spectrum and the corresponding milk yield were used to develop the heat production model using partial least squares (PLS) regression.

Results

Measured heat production of studied animals ranged between 712 and 1470 kJ/kg BW^0.75. The coefficient of determination for the linear regression between milk yield and heat production was 0.46, whereas it was 0.23 for the FTIR spectra-based PLS model. The PLS prediction model using weighted average spectra and milk yield resulted in a cross-validation variance of 57% and a root mean square error of prediction of 86.5 kJ/kg BW^0.75. The ratio of performance to deviation (RPD) was 1.56.

Conclusion

The PLS model using weighted average FTIR spectra and milk yield has higher potential to predict heat production of dairy cows than models applying FTIR spectra or milk yield only.

Diagnosing the pregnancy status of dairy cows: How useful is milk mid-infrared spectroscopy?

Pregnancy diagnosis is an essential part of successful breeding programs on dairy farms. Milk composition alters with pregnancy, and this is well documented. Fourier-transform mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy is a rapid and cost-effective method for providing milk spectra that reflect the detailed composition of milk samples. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the ability of MIR spectroscopy to predict the pregnancy status of dairy cows. The MIR spectra and insemination records were available from 8,064 Holstein cows of 19 commercial dairy farms in Australia. Three strategies were studied to classify cows as open or pregnant using partial least squares discriminant analysis models with random cow-independent 10-fold cross-validation and external validation on a cow-independent test set. The first strategy considered 6,754 MIR spectra after insemination used as independent variables in the model. The results showed little ability to detect the pregnancy status as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.63 and 0.65 for cross-validation and testing, respectively. The second strategy, involving 1,664 records, aimed to reduce noise in the MIR spectra used as predictors by subtracting a spectrum before insemination (i.e., open spectrum) from the spectrum after insemination. The accuracy was comparable with the first approach, showing no superiority of the method. Given the limited results for these models when using combined data from all stages after insemination, the third strategy explored separate models at 7 stages after insemination comprising 348 to 1,566 records each (i.e., progressively greater gestation) with single MIR spectra after insemination as predictors. The models developed using data recorded after 150 d of pregnancy showed promising prediction accuracy with the average value of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78 and 0.76 obtained through cross-validation and testing, respectively. If this can be confirmed on a larger data set and extended to somewhat earlier stages after insemination, the model could be used as a complementary tool to detect fetal abortion.

Accuracy of methane emissions predicted from milk mid-infrared spectra and measured by laser methane detectors in Brown Swiss dairy cows

Since heritability of CH₄ emissions in ruminants was demonstrated, various attempts to generate large individual animal CH₄ data sets have been initiated. Predicting individual CH₄ emissions based on equations using milk mid-infrared (MIR) spectra is currently considered promising as a low-cost proxy. However, the CH₄ emission predicted by MIR in individuals still has to be confirmed by measurements. In addition, it remains unclear how low CH₄ emitting cows differ in intake, digestion, and efficiency from high CH₄ emitters. In the current study, putatively low and putatively high CH₄ emitting Brown Swiss cows were selected from the entire Swiss herdbook population (176,611 cows), using an MIR-based prediction equation. Eventually, 15 low and 15 high CH₄ emitters from 29 different farms were chosen for a respiration chamber (RC) experiment in which all cows were fed the same forage-based diet. Several traits related to intake, digestion, and efficiency were quantified over 8 d, and CH₄ emission was measured in 4 open circuit RC. Daily CH₄ emissions were also estimated using data from 2 laser CH₄ detectors (LMD). The MIR-predicted CH₄ production (g/d) was quite constant in low and high emission categories, in individuals across sites (home farm, experimental station), and within equations (first available and refined versions). The variation of the MIR-predicted values was substantially lower using the refined equation. However, the predicted low and high emitting cows (n = 28) did not differ on average in daily CH₄ emissions measured either with RC or estimated using LMD, and no correlation was found between CH₄ predictions (MIR) and CH₄ emissions measured in RC. When individuals were recategorized based on CH₄ yield measured in RC, differences between categories of 10 low and 10 high CH₄ emitters were about 20%. Low CH₄ emitting cows had a higher feed intake, milk yield, and residual feed intake, but they differed only weakly in eating pattern and digesta mean retention times. Low CH₄ emitters were characterized by lower acetate and higher propionate proportions of total ruminal volatile fatty acids. We concluded that the current MIR-based CH₄ predictions are not accurate enough to be implemented in breeding programs for cows fed forage-based diets. In addition, low CH₄ emitting cows have to be characterized in more detail using mechanistic studies to clarify in more detail the properties that explain the functional differences found in comparison with other cows.

Persistence of differences between dairy cows categorized as low or high methane emitters, as estimated from milk mid-infrared spectra and measured by GreenFeed

Currently, various attempts are being made to implement breeding schemes aimed at producing low methane (CH₄) emitting cows. We investigated the persistence of differences in CH₄ emission between groups of cows categorized as either low or high emitters over a 5-mo period. Two feeding regimens (pasture vs. indoors) were used. Early- to mid-lactation Holstein Friesian cows were categorized as low or high emitters (n = 10 each) retrospectively, using predictions from milk mid-infrared (MIR) spectra, before the start of the experiment. Data from MIR estimates and from measurements with the GreenFeed (GF; C-Lock Technology Inc., Rapid City, SD) system over the 5-mo experiment were combined into 7-, 14-, and 28-d periods. Feed intake, eating and ruminating behavior, and ruminal fluid traits were determined in two 7-d measurement periods in the grazing season. The CH₄ emission data were analyzed using a split-plot ANOVA, and the repeatability of each of the applied methods for determining CH₄ emission was calculated. Traits other than CH₄ emission were analyzed for differences between low and high emitters using a linear mixed model. The initial category-dependent differences in daily CH₄ production persisted over the subsequent 5 mo and across 2 feeding regimens with both methods. The repeatability analysis indicated that the biweekly milk control scheme, and even a monthly scheme as practiced on farms, might be sufficient for confirming category differences. However, the relationship between CH₄ data estimated by MIR and measured with GF for individual cows was weak (R² = 0.26). The categorization based on CH₄ production also generated differences in CH₄ emission per kilogram of milk; differentiation between cow categories was not persistent based on milk MIR spectra and GF. Compared with the high emitters, low emitters tended to show a lower acetate-to-propionate ratio in ruminal volatile fatty acids, whereas feed intake and ruminating time did not differ. Interestingly, the low emitters spent less time eating than the high emitters. In conclusion, the CH₄ estimation from analyzing the milk MIR spectra is an appropriate proxy to form and regularly control categories of cows with different CH₄ production levels. The categorization was also sufficient to secure similar and persistent differences in emission intensity when estimated by MIR spectra of the milk. Further studies are needed to determine whether MIR data from individual cows are sufficiently accurate for breeding.

Validation strategy can result in an overoptimistic view of the ability of milk infrared spectra to predict methane emission of dairy cattle

Because of the environmental impact of methane (CH₄), it is of great interest to reduce CH₄ emission of dairy cattle and selective breeding might contribute to this. However, this approach requires a rapid and inexpensive measurement technique that can be used to quantify CH₄ emission for a large number of individual dairy cows. Milk infrared (IR) spectroscopy has been proposed as a predictor for CH₄ emission. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of milk IR spectra to predict breath sensor-measured CH₄ of 801 dairy cows on 10 commercial farms. To evaluate the prediction equation, we used random and block cross validation. Using random cross validation, we found a validation coefficient of determination (R²val) of 0.49, which suggests that milk IR spectra are informative in predicting CH₄ emission. However, based on block cross validation, with farms as blocks, a negligible R²val of 0.01 was obtained, indicating that milk IR spectra cannot be used to predict CH₄ emission. Random cross validation thus results in an overoptimistic view of the ability of milk IR spectra to predict CH₄ emission of dairy cows. The difference between the validation strategies could be due to the confounding of farm and date of milk IR analysis, which introduces a correlation between batch effects on the IR analyses and farm-average CH₄. Breath sensor-measured CH₄ is strongly influenced by farm-specific conditions, which magnifies the problem. Milk IR wavenumbers from water absorption regions, which are generally considered uninformative, showed moderate accuracy (R²val = 0.25) when based on random cross validation, but not when based on block cross validation (R²val = 0.03). These results indicate, therefore, that in the current study, random cross validation results in an overoptimistic view on the ability of milk IR spectra to predict CH₄ emission. We suggest prediction based on wavenumbers from water absorption regions as a negative control to identify potential dependence structures in the data.

Short communication: Development of an equation for estimating methane emissions of dairy cows from milk Fourier transform mid-infrared spectra by using reference data obtained exclusively from respiration chambers

Evaluation and mitigation of enteric methane (CH₄) emissions from ruminant livestock, in particular from dairy cows, have acquired global importance for sustainable, climate-smart cattle production. Based on CH₄ reference measurements obtained with the SF₆ tracer technique to determine ruminal CH₄ production, a current equation permits evaluation of individual daily CH₄ emissions of dairy cows based on milk Fourier transform mid-infrared (FT-MIR) spectra. However, the respiration chamber (RC) technique is considered to be more accurate than SF₆ to measure CH₄ production from cattle. This study aimed to develop an equation that allows estimating CH₄ emissions of lactating cows recorded in an RC from corresponding milk FT-MIR spectra and to challenge its robustness and relevance through validation processes and its application on a milk spectral database. This would permit confirming the conclusions drawn with the existing equation based on SF₆ reference measurements regarding the potential to estimate daily CH₄ emissions of dairy cows from milk FT-MIR spectra. A total of 584 RC reference CH₄ measurements (mean ± standard deviation of 400 ± 72 g of CH₄/d) and corresponding standardized milk mid-infrared spectra were obtained from 148 individual lactating cows between 7 and 321 d in milk in 5 European countries (Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, France, and Northern Ireland). The developed equation based on RC measurements showed calibration and cross-validation coefficients of determination of 0.65 and 0.57, respectively, which is lower than those obtained earlier by the equation based on 532 SF₆ measurements (0.74 and 0.70, respectively). This means that the RC-based model is unable to explain the variability observed in the corresponding reference data as well as the SF₆-based model. The standard errors of calibration and cross-validation were lower for the RC model (43 and 47 g/d vs. 66 and 70 g/d for the SF₆ version, respectively), indicating that the model based on RC data was closer to actual values. The root mean squared error (RMSE) of calibration of 42 g/d represents only 10% of the overall daily CH₄ production, which is 23 g/d lower than the RMSE for the SF₆-based equation. During the external validation step an RMSE of 62 g/d was observed. When the RC equation was applied to a standardized spectral database of milk recordings collected in the Walloon region of Belgium between January 2012 and December 2017 (1,515,137 spectra from 132,658 lactating cows in 1,176 different herds), an average ± standard deviation of 446 ± 51 g of CH₄/d was estimated, which is consistent with the range of the values measured using both RC and SF₆ techniques. This study confirmed that milk FT-MIR spectra could be used as a potential proxy to estimate daily CH₄ emissions from dairy cows provided that the variability to predict is covered by the model.