A Combination of Factors Related to Smoking Behavior, Attractive Product Characteristics, and Socio-Cognitive Factors are Important to Distinguish a Dual User from an Exclusive E-Cigarette User

Machine learning applications in tobacco research: a scoping review

OBJECTIVE

Identify and review the body of tobacco research literature that self-identified as using machine learning (ML) in the analysis.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, EMABSE, PubMed, CINAHL Plus, APA PsycINFO and IEEE Xplore databases were searched up to September 2020. Studies were restricted to peer-reviewed, English-language journal articles, dissertations and conference papers comprising an empirical analysis where ML was identified to be the method used to examine human experience of tobacco. Studies of genomics and diagnostic imaging were excluded.

STUDY SELECTION

Two reviewers independently screened the titles and abstracts. The reference list of articles was also searched. In an iterative process, eligible studies were classified into domains based on their objectives and types of data used in the analysis.

DATA EXTRACTION

Using data charting forms, two reviewers independently extracted data from all studies. A narrative synthesis method was used to describe findings from each domain such as study design, objective, ML classes/algorithms, knowledge users and the presence of a data sharing statement. Trends of publication were visually depicted.

DATA SYNTHESIS

74 studies were grouped into four domains: ML-powered technology to assist smoking cessation (n=22); content analysis of tobacco on social media (n=32); smoker status classification from narrative clinical texts (n=6) and tobacco-related outcome prediction using administrative, survey or clinical trial data (n=14). Implications of these studies and future directions for ML researchers in tobacco control were discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

ML represents a powerful tool that could advance the research and policy decision-making of tobacco control. Further opportunities should be explored.

Predictors of perceived success in quitting smoking by vaping: A machine learning approach

Prior research has suggested that a set of unique characteristics may be associated with adult cigarette smokers who are able to quit smoking using e-cigarettes (vaping). In this cross-sectional study, we aimed to identify and rank the importance of these characteristics using machine learning. During July and August 2019, an online survey was administered to a convenience sample of 889 adult smokers (age ≥ 20) in Ontario, Canada who tried vaping to quit smoking in the past 12 months. Fifty-one person-level characteristics, including a Vaping Experiences Score, were assessed in a gradient boosting machine model to classify the status of perceived success in vaping-assisted smoking cessation. This model was trained using cross-validation and tested using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The top five most important predictors were identified using a score between 0% and 100% that represented the relative importance of each variable in model training. About 20% of participants (N = 174, 19.6%) reported success in vaping-assisted smoking cessation. The model achieved relatively high performance with an area under the ROC curve of 0.865 and classification accuracy of 0.831 (95% CI [confidence interval] 0.780 to 0.874). The top five most important predictors of perceived success in vaping-assisted smoking cessation were more positive experiences measured by the Vaping Experiences Score (100%), less previously failed quit attempts by vaping (39.0%), younger age (21.9%), having vaped 100 times (16.8%), and vaping shortly after waking up (15.8%). Our findings provide strong statistical evidence that shows better vaping experiences are associated with greater perceived success in smoking cessation by vaping. Furthermore, our study confirmed the strength of machine learning techniques in vaping-related outcomes research based on observational data.

A machine learning approach to identify correlates of current e-cigarette use in Canada

Aim: Popularity of electronic cigarettes (i.e. e-cigarettes) is soaring in Canada. Understanding person-level correlates of current e-cigarette use (vaping) is crucial to guide tobacco policy, but prior studies have not fully identified these correlates due to model overfitting caused by multicollinearity. This study addressed this issue by using classification tree, a machine learning algorithm. Methods: This population-based cross-sectional study used the Canadian Tobacco, Alcohol, and Drugs Survey (CTADS) from 2017 that targeted residents aged 15 or older. Forty-six person-level characteristics were first screened in a logistic mixed-effects regression procedure for their strength in predicting vaper type (current vs. former vaper) among people who reported to have ever vaped. A 9:1 ratio was used to randomly split the data into a training set and a validation set. A classification tree model was developed using the cross-validation method on the training set using the selected predictors and assessed on the validation set using sensitivity, specificity and accuracy. Results: Of the 3,059 people with an experience of vaping, the average age was 24.4 years (standard deviation = 11.0), with 41.9% of them being female and 8.5% of them being aboriginal. There were 556 (18.2%) current vapers. The classification tree model performed relatively well and suggested attraction to e-cigarette flavors was the most important correlate of current vaping, followed by young age (< 18) and believing vaping to be less harmful to oneself than cigarette smoking. Conclusions: People who vape due to flavors are associated with very high risk of becoming current vapers. The findings of this study provide evidence that supports the ongoing ban on flavored vaping products in the US and suggests a similar regulatory intervention may be effective in Canada.

E-Liquid Flavor Preferences and Individual Factors Related to Vaping: A Survey among Dutch Never-Users, Smokers, Dual Users, and Exclusive Vapers

Appealing product characteristics, such as flavors, may stimulate e-cigarette use. While switching to e-cigarettes may reduce harm for smokers, concerns exist about e-cigarette use among never-smokers. The role of flavors in the decision to switch to or refrain from vaping is unclear. This study used a bottom-up approach to investigate the relation between flavor preferences and individual factors related to vaping between various user groups. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among never-users (n = 407), smokers (n = 138), dual users (n = 122), and exclusive vapers (n = 61) in the Netherlands. Demographics, attractiveness of product characteristics, flavor preferences, and individual factors related to vaping (knowledge, trust, perceived susceptibility, attitude, social influence, deliberation, and intention) were assessed. The availability of different flavors was the most attractive characteristic of e-cigarettes. Dual users and exclusive vapers had most often used tobacco and menthol/mint flavors when they first started vaping. Compared to dual users, exclusive vapers currently used more fruit and sweet flavors. Never-users who were interested in trying an e-liquid flavor had more knowledge about and a more positive attitude towards e-cigarettes. Smokers who were interested in trying a flavor had a more positive attitude towards e-cigarettes and experienced the social influence towards not using e-cigarettes as less strong than those who did not want to try any flavor. Hence, individual factors related to vaping differed depending on whether never-users and smokers wanted to try an e-liquid flavor. This means that flavors may moderate differences found in individual factors related to vaping, or vice versa.