Prognostic Impact of Perioperative CA19-9 Levels in Patients with Resected Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma

Feasibility of machine learning-based modeling and prediction using multiple centers data to assess intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma outcomes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Currently, there are still no definitive consensus in the treatment of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA). This study aimed to build a clinical decision support tool based on machine learning using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and the data from the Fifth Medical Center of the PLA General Hospital in China.

METHODS

4,398 eligible patients from the SEER database and 504 eligible patients from the hospital data, who presented with histologically proven iCCA, were enrolled for modeling by cross-validation based on machine learning. All the models were trained using the open-source Python library scikit-survival version 0.16.0. Shapley additive explanations method was used to help clinicians better understand the obtained results. Permutation importance was calculated using library ELI5.

RESULTS

All involved treatment modalities could contribute to a better prognosis. Three models were derived and tested using different data sources, with concordance indices of 0.67, 0.69, and 0.73, respectively. The prediction results were consistent with those under actual situations involving randomly selected patients. Model 2, trained using the hospital data, was selected to develop an online tool, due to its advantage in predicting short-term prognosis.

CONCLUSION

The prediction model and tool established in this study can be applied to predict the prognosis of iCCA after treatment by inputting the patient's clinical parameters or TNM stages and treatment options, thus contributing to optimal clinical decisions.KEY MESSAGESA prognostic model related to disease staging and treatment mode was conducted using the method of machine learning, based on the big data of multi centers.The online calculator can predict the short-term survival prognosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, thus, help to make the best clinical decision.The online calculator built to calculate the mortality risk and overall survival can be easily obtained and applied.

Development and validation of a gene expression-based nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with cholangiocarcinoma

AIM

To establish and validate a prognostic nomogram of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) using independent clinicopathological and genetic mutation factors.

METHODS

213 patients with CCA (training cohort n = 151, validation cohort n = 62) diagnosed from 2012 to 2018 were included from multi-centers. Deep sequencing targeting 450 cancer genes was performed. Independent prognostic factors were selected by univariate and multivariate Cox analyses. The clinicopathological factors combined with (A)/without (B) the gene risk were used to establish nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS). The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomograms were assessed using C-index values, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration plots.

RESULTS

The clinical baseline information and gene mutations in the training and validation cohorts were similar. SMAD4, BRCA2, KRAS, NF1, and TERT were found to be related with CCA prognosis. Patients were divided into low-, median-, and high-risk groups according to the gene mutation, the OS of which was 42.7 ± 2.7 ms (95% CI 37.5-48.0), 27.5 ± 2.1 ms (95% CI 23.3-31.7), and 19.8 ± 4.0 ms (95% CI 11.8-27.8) (p < 0.001), respectively. The systemic chemotherapy improved the OS in high and median risk groups, but not in the low-risk group. The C-indexes of the nomogram A and B were 0.779 (95% CI 0.693-0.865) and 0.725 (95% CI 0.619-0.831), p < 0.01, respectively. The IDI was 0.079. The DCA showed a good performance and the prognostic accuracy was validated in the external cohort.

CONCLUSION

Gene risk has the potential to guide treatment decision for patients at different risks. The nomogram combined with gene risk showed a better accuracy in predicting OS of CCA than not.

Tumor Microenvironment Remodeling in Gastrointestinal Cancer: Role of miRNAs as Biomarkers of Tumor Invasion

Gastrointestinal (GI) cancers are the most frequent neoplasm, responsible for half of all cancer-related deaths. Metastasis is the leading cause of death from GI cancer; thus, studying the processes that regulate cancer cell migration is of paramount importance for the development of new therapeutic strategies. In this review, we summarize the mechanisms adopted by cancer cells to promote cell migration and the subsequent metastasis formation by highlighting the key role that tumor microenvironment components play in deregulating cellular pathways involved in these processes. We, therefore, provide an overview of the role of different microRNAs in promoting tumor metastasis and their role as potential biomarkers for the prognosis, monitoring, and diagnosis of GI cancer patients. Finally, we relate the possible use of nutraceuticals as a new strategy for targeting numerous microRNAs and different pathways involved in GI tumor invasiveness.

The Long-Term Outcome of Laparoscopic Resection for Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma Compared with the Open Approach: A Real-World Multicentric Analysis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to compare the short- and long-term outcomes of laparoscopic surgery (LS) and open surgery (OP) for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC) using a large real-world dataset in China.

METHODS

Data of patients with PHC who underwent LS and OP from January 2013 to October 2018, across 10 centers in China, were extracted from medical records. A comparative analysis was performed before and after propensity score matching (PSM) in the LS and OP groups and within the study subgroups. The Cox proportional hazards mixed-effects model was applied to estimate the risk factors for mortality, with center and year of operation as random effects.

RESULTS

A total of 467 patients with PHC were included, of whom 161 underwent LS and 306 underwent OP. Postoperative morbidity, such as hemorrhage, biliary fistula, abdominal abscess, and hepatic insufficiency, was similar between the LS and OP groups. The median overall survival (OS) was longer in the LS group than in the OP group (NA vs. 22 months; hazard ratio [HR] 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.39, p = 0.024). Among the matched datasets, OS was comparable between the LS and OP groups (NA vs. 35 months; HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.77-1.26, p = 0.915). The mixed-effect model identified that the surgical method was not associated with long-term outcomes and that LS and OP provided similar oncological outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering the comparable long-term prognosis and short-term outcomes of LS and OP, LS could be a technically feasible surgical method for PHC patients with all Bismuth-Corlett types of PHC.

An overview of extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: from here to where?

Extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (eCCA) contains perihilar cholangiocarcinoma and distal cholangiocarcinoma both of which can arise at any point of the biliary tree and originate from disparate anatomical sites. Generally, the incidence of eCCA is increasing globally. Though surgical resection is the principal treatment of choice for the early stages of eCCA, optimal survival remains restricted by the high risk of recurrence when most patients are present with unresectable disease or distant metastasis. Furthermore, both intra- and intertumoral heterogeneity make it laborious to determine molecularly targeted therapies. In this review, we mainly focused on current findings in the field of eCCA, mostly including epidemiology, genomic abnormalities, molecular pathogenesis, tumor microenvironment, and other details while a summary of the biological mechanisms driving eCCA may shed light on intricate tumorigenesis and feasible treatment strategies.

Prognostic influence for hilar cholangiocarcinoma and comparisons of prognostic values of Mayo staging and TNM staging systems

The study was designed to discuss the effect of stratification factors in the Mayo staging on the prognosis of hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HCCA) patients, and to evaluate the predictive value of the Mayo staging on the prognosis. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve and Log-rank test were used to perform univariate analysis on each index and obtain statistically significant influencing factors. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve and Log-rank test were used to analyze the correlation between the two staging systems and the survival period. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used for each single staging system trend analysis, and comparison of their curve area to determine prognosis prediction ability for patients with HCCA. According to Kaplan-Meier survival curve changes and Log-rank test results, it was found that both staging systems were correlated with the survival time of the patients (P < .001). Through a pairwise comparison within the stages, it was found that the heterogeneity between the stages within the Mayo staging is very good, which was better than the TNM staging. A single trend analysis of the prognostic assessment capabilities of the two systems found that the area under the ROC curve of Mayo staging system (AUC = 0.587) was the largest and better than the TNM staging system (AUC = 0.501). Mayo staging can be used for preoperative patient prognosis assessment which can provide better stratification ability based on a single-center small sample study, and the predictive value is better than TNM staging.

Modification of the eighth AJCC/UICC staging system for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma: An alternative pathological staging system from cholangiocarcinoma-prevalent Northeast Thailand

Aim

This study aims to improve the classification performance of the eighth American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) by proposing the Khon Kaen University (KKU) staging system developed in cholangiocarcinoma-prevalent Northeast Thailand.

Method

Four hundred eighty-eight patients with pCCA who underwent partial hepatectomy between 2002 and 2017 at the Srinagarind Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Thailand, were included. Overall survival (OS) related to clinicopathological features was analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method. Logrank test was performed in univariate analysis to compare OS data of clinicopathological features to determine risk factors for poor survival. Significant features were further analyzed by multivariate analysis (Cox regression) to identify prognostic factors which were then employed to modify the eighth AJCC staging system.

Results

Multivariate analysis showed that growth pattern (HR = 4.67–19.72, p &lt; 0.001), moderately and poorly differentiated histological grades (HR = 2.31–4.99, p &lt; 0.05 and 0.001, respectively), lymph node metastasis N1 and N2 (HR = 1.37 and 2.18, p &lt; 0.05 and 0.01, respectively), and distant metastasis (HR = 2.11, p &lt; 0.001) were independent factors when compared to their respective reference groups. There was a clear separation of patients with pCCA into KKU stage: I [OS = 116 months (mo.)], II (OS = 46 mo.), IIIA (OS = 24 mo.), IIIB (11 mo.), IVA (OS = 7 mo.), and IVB (OS = 6 mo.).

Conclusion

The new staging system was based on the incorporation of growth patterns to modify the eighth AJCC staging system. The classification performance demonstrated that the KKU staging system was able to classify and distinctly separate patients with pCCA into those with good and poor outcomes. It was also able to improve the stratification performance and discriminative ability of different stages of pCCA classification better than the eighth AJCC staging system. Hence, the KKU staging system is proposed as an alternative model to augment the accuracy of survival prognostication and treatment performance for patients with pCCA.

Molecular diagnostics and biomarkers in cholangiocarcinoma

Regardless of anatomic origin, cholangiocarcinoma is generally an aggressive malignancy with a relatively high case fatality. Surgical resection with curative intent remains the best opportunity to achieve meaningful long-term survival. Most patients present, however, with advanced disease and less than 20% of patients are candidates for surgical resection. Unfortunately, even patients who undergo resection have a 5-year survival that ranges from 20 to 40%. Biomarkers are indicators of normal, pathologic, or biologic responses to an intervention and can range from a characteristic (i.e., blood pressure reading which can detect hypertension) to specific genetic mutations or proteins (i.e., carcinoembryonic antigen level). Novel biomarkers and improved molecular diagnostics represent an attractive opportunity to improve detection as well as to identify novel therapeutic targets for patients with cholangiocarcinoma. We herein review the latest advances in molecular diagnostics and biomarkers related to the early detection and treatment of patients with cholangiocarcinoma.

Prognostic Value of Carbohydrate Antigen 19‐9 and the Surgical Margin in Extrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

Aim

The prognostic value of the perioperative carbohydrate antigen 19‐9 (CA19‐9) value and the prognostic relationship between the CA19‐9 value and the surgical margin in extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (EHCC) have not been fully discussed.

Methods

A total of 390 patients who underwent curative resection for EHCC between 2002 and 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. According to the perioperative CA19‐9 value, patients were divided into three groups: preoperative normal (Normal, n = 178), preoperative high and postoperative normal (Normalization, n = 155), and preoperative high and postoperative high (Nonnormalization, n = 57). Survival was analyzed according to the perioperative CA19‐9 value and surgical margin.

Results

The optimal cutoff value of CA19‐9 was 37 U/mL. Overall survival (OS) was significantly stratified according to the perioperative CA19‐9 value. The 5‐y OS rates in the Normal, Normalization, and Nonnormalization groups were 53%, 38%, and 23%, respectively (P < .001). Although the locoregional recurrence rate was comparable among the groups, the Normal group exhibited distant recurrence less frequently in comparison to the other groups. In the Normal group, the margin status had a significant impact on the OS (surgical resection with a negative margin [R0], 59% vs a microscopically positive margin [R1], 7% at 5‐y, P < .001). In contrast, in the Normalization and Nonnormalization groups, the OS rate of the R0 and R1 resection groups did not differ to a statistically significant extent.

Conclusion

The perioperative CA19‐9 value was related to the prognosis of resectable EHCC. A preoperative CA19‐9 value of ≥37 U/mL reflected systemic disease. R0 resection did not affect the survival in this patient group.