Tumor Volume Dynamics as an Early Biomarker for Patient-Specific Evolution of Resistance and Progression in Recurrent High-Grade Glioma

Comparison of Volumetric and 2D Measurements and Longitudinal Trajectories in the Response Assessment of BRAF V600E-Mutant Pediatric Gliomas in the Pacific Pediatric Neuro-Oncology Consortium Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Response on imaging is widely used to evaluate treatment efficacy in clinical trials of pediatric gliomas. While conventional criteria rely on 2D measurements, volumetric analysis may provide a more comprehensive response assessment. There is sparse research on the role of volumetrics in pediatric gliomas. Our purpose was to compare 2D and volumetric analysis with the assessment of neuroradiologists using the Brain Tumor Reporting and Data System (BT-RADS) in BRAF V600E-mutant pediatric gliomas.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Manual volumetric segmentations of whole and solid tumors were compared with 2D measurements in 31 participants (292 follow-up studies) in the Pacific Pediatric Neuro-Oncology Consortium 002 trial (NCT01748149). Two neuroradiologists evaluated responses using BT-RADS. Receiver operating characteristic analysis compared classification performance of 2D and volumetrics for partial response. Agreement between volumetric and 2D mathematically modeled longitudinal trajectories for 25 participants was determined using the model-estimated time to best response.

RESULTS

Of 31 participants, 20 had partial responses according to BT-RADS criteria. Receiver operating characteristic curves for the classification of partial responders at the time of first detection (median = 2 months) yielded an area under the curve of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.69-0.99) for 2D area, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.80-1.00) for whole-volume, and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.82-1.00) for solid volume change. There was no significant difference in the area under the curve between 2D and solid (P = .34) or whole volume (P = .39). There was no significant correlation in model-estimated time to best response (ρ = 0.39, P >.05) between 2D and whole-volume trajectories. Eight of the 25 participants had a difference of ≥90 days in transition from partial response to stable disease between their 2D and whole-volume modeled trajectories.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there was no overall difference between volumetrics and 2D in classifying partial response assessment using BT-RADS, further prospective studies will be critical to elucidate how the observed differences in tumor 2D and volumetric trajectories affect clinical decision-making and outcomes in some individuals.

Fractal calculus in tumor growth simulations: The proof is in the pudding

Mathematical modeling in oncology has a long history. Recently, mathematical models and their predictions have made inroads into prospective clinical trials with encouraging results. The goal of many such modeling efforts is to make predictions, either to clinician's choice therapy or into "optimal" therapy - often for individual patients. The mathematical oncology community rightfully puts great hope into predictive modeling and mechanistic digital twins - but with this great opportunity comes great responsibility. Mathematical models need to be rigorously calibrated and validated, and their predictive performance ascertained, before conclusions about predictions into the unknown can be drawn. The recent article "Modeling tumor growth using fractal calculus: Insights into tumor dynamics" (Golmankhaneh et al., 2023), applied fractal calculus to tumor growth data. In this short commentary, I raise concerns about the study design and interpretation. In its current form, this study is poised to put cancer patients at risk if interpreted as concluded by the authors.

Comparison of volumetric and 2D-based response methods in the PNOC-001 pediatric low-grade glioma clinical trial

Background

Although response in pediatric low-grade glioma (pLGG) includes volumetric assessment, more simplified 2D-based methods are often used in clinical trials. The study's purpose was to compare volumetric to 2D methods.

Methods

An expert neuroradiologist performed solid and whole tumor (including cyst and edema) volumetric measurements on MR images using a PACS-based manual segmentation tool in 43 pLGG participants (213 total follow-up images) from the Pacific Pediatric Neuro-Oncology Consortium (PNOC-001) trial. Classification based on changes in volumetric and 2D measurements of solid tumor were compared to neuroradiologist visual response assessment using the Brain Tumor Reporting and Data System (BT-RADS) criteria for a subset of 65 images using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Longitudinal modeling of solid tumor volume was used to predict BT-RADS classification in 54 of the 65 images.

Results

There was a significant difference in ROC area under the curve between 3D solid tumor volume and 2D area (0.96 vs 0.78, P = .005) and between 3D solid and 3D whole volume (0.96 vs 0.84, P = .006) when classifying BT-RADS progressive disease (PD). Thresholds of 15-25% increase in 3D solid tumor volume had an 80% sensitivity in classifying BT-RADS PD included in their 95% confidence intervals. The longitudinal model of solid volume response had a sensitivity of 82% and a positive predictive value of 67% for detecting BT-RADS PD.

Conclusions

Volumetric analysis of solid tumor was significantly better than 2D measurements in classifying tumor progression as determined by BT-RADS criteria and will enable more comprehensive clinical management.

Rules-based Volumetric Segmentation of Multiparametric MRI for Response Assessment in Recurrent High-Grade Glioma

We report domain knowledge-based rules for assigning voxels in brain multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) to distinct tissuetypes based on their appearance on Apparent Diffusion Coefficient of water (ADC) maps, T1-weighted unenhanced and contrast-enhanced, T2-weighted, and Fluid-Attenuated Inversion Recovery images. The development dataset comprised mpMRI of 18 participants with preoperative high-grade glioma (HGG), recurrent HGG (rHGG), and brain metastases. External validation was performed on mpMRI of 235 HGG participants in the BraTS 2020 training dataset. The treatment dataset comprised serial mpMRI of 32 participants (total 231 scan dates) in a clinical trial of immunoradiotherapy in rHGG (NCT02313272). Pixel intensity-based rules for segmenting contrast-enhancing tumor (CE), hemorrhage, Fluid, non-enhancing tumor (Edema1), and leukoaraiosis (Edema2) were identified on calibrated, co-registered mpMRI images in the development dataset. On validation, rule-based CE and High FLAIR (Edema1 + Edema2) volumes were significantly correlated with ground truth volumes of enhancing tumor (R = 0.85;p < 0.001) and peritumoral edema (R = 0.87;p < 0.001), respectively. In the treatment dataset, a model combining time-on-treatment and rule-based volumes of CE and intratumoral Fluid was 82.5% accurate for predicting progression within 30 days of the scan date. An explainable decision tree applied to brain mpMRI yields validated, consistent, intratumoral tissuetype volumes suitable for quantitative response assessment in clinical trials of rHGG.

Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of image-informed tumor habitats in a murine model of glioma

Tumors exhibit high molecular, phenotypic, and physiological heterogeneity. In this effort, we employ quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data to capture this heterogeneity through imaging-based subregions or "habitats" in a murine model of glioma. We then demonstrate the ability to model and predict the growth of the habitats using coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in the presence and absence of radiotherapy. Female Wistar rats (N = 21) were inoculated intracranially with 10⁶ C6 glioma cells, a subset of which received 20 Gy (N = 5) or 40 Gy (N = 8) of radiation. All rats underwent diffusion-weighted and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI at up to seven time points. All MRI data at each visit were subsequently clustered using k-means to identify physiological tumor habitats. A family of four models consisting of three coupled ODEs were developed and calibrated to the habitat time series of control and treated rats and evaluated for predictive capability. The Akaike Information Criterion was used for model selection, and the normalized sum-of-square-error (SSE) was used to evaluate goodness-of-fit in model calibration and prediction. Three tumor habitats with significantly different imaging data characteristics (p < 0.05) were identified: high-vascularity high-cellularity, low-vascularity high-cellularity, and low-vascularity low-cellularity. Model selection resulted in a five-parameter model whose predictions of habitat dynamics yielded SSEs that were similar to the SSEs from the calibrated model. It is thus feasible to mathematically describe habitat dynamics in a preclinical model of glioma using biology-based ODEs, showing promise for forecasting heterogeneous tumor behavior.

Opportunities for improving brain cancer treatment outcomes through imaging-based mathematical modeling of the delivery of radiotherapy and immunotherapy

Immunotherapy has become a fourth pillar in the treatment of brain tumors and, when combined with radiation therapy, may improve patient outcomes and reduce the neurotoxicity. As with other combination therapies, the identification of a treatment schedule that maximizes the synergistic effect of radiation- and immune-therapy is a fundamental challenge. Mechanism-based mathematical modeling is one promising approach to systematically investigate therapeutic combinations to maximize positive outcomes within a rigorous framework. However, successful clinical translation of model-generated combinations of treatment requires patient-specific data to allow the models to be meaningfully initialized and parameterized. Quantitative imaging techniques have emerged as a promising source of high quality, spatially and temporally resolved data for the development and validation of mathematical models. In this review, we will present approaches to personalize mechanism-based modeling frameworks with patient data, and then discuss how these techniques could be leveraged to improve brain cancer outcomes through patient-specific modeling and optimization of treatment strategies.

Mathematical modeling of radiotherapy and its impact on tumor interactions with the immune system

Radiotherapy is a primary therapeutic modality widely utilized with curative intent. Traditionally tumor response was hypothesized to be due to high levels of cell death induced by irreparable DNA damage. However, the immunomodulatory aspect of radiation is now widely accepted. As such, interest into the combination of radiotherapy and immunotherapy is increasing, the synergy of which has the potential to improve tumor regression beyond that observed after either treatment alone. However, questions regarding the timing (sequential vs concurrent) and dose fractionation (hyper-, standard-, or hypo-fractionation) that result in improved anti-tumor immune responses, and thus potentially enhanced tumor inhibition, remain. Here we discuss the biological response to radiotherapy and its immunomodulatory properties before giving an overview of pre-clinical data and clinical trials concerned with answering these questions. Finally, we review published mathematical models of the impact of radiotherapy on tumor-immune interactions. Ranging from considering the impact of properties of the tumor microenvironment on the induction of anti-tumor responses, to the impact of choice of radiation site in the setting of metastatic disease, these models all have an underlying feature in common: the push towards personalized therapy.

Integrating mechanism-based modeling with biomedical imaging to build practical digital twins for clinical oncology

Digital twins employ mathematical and computational models to virtually represent a physical object (e.g., planes and human organs), predict the behavior of the object, and enable decision-making to optimize the future behavior of the object. While digital twins have been widely used in engineering for decades, their applications to oncology are only just emerging. Due to advances in experimental techniques quantitatively characterizing cancer, as well as advances in the mathematical and computational sciences, the notion of building and applying digital twins to understand tumor dynamics and personalize the care of cancer patients has been increasingly appreciated. In this review, we present the opportunities and challenges of applying digital twins in clinical oncology, with a particular focus on integrating medical imaging with mechanism-based, tissue-scale mathematical modeling. Specifically, we first introduce the general digital twin framework and then illustrate existing applications of image-guided digital twins in healthcare. Next, we detail both the imaging and modeling techniques that provide practical opportunities to build patient-specific digital twins for oncology. We then describe the current challenges and limitations in developing image-guided, mechanism-based digital twins for oncology along with potential solutions. We conclude by outlining five fundamental questions that can serve as a roadmap when designing and building a practical digital twin for oncology and attempt to provide answers for a specific application to brain cancer. We hope that this contribution provides motivation for the imaging science, oncology, and computational communities to develop practical digital twin technologies to improve the care of patients battling cancer.

Intermittent radiotherapy as alternative treatment for recurrent high grade glioma: a modeling study based on longitudinal tumor measurements

Recurrent high grade glioma patients face a poor prognosis for which no curative treatment option currently exists. In contrast to prescribing high dose hypofractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (HFSRT, [Formula: see text] Gy [Formula: see text] 5 in daily fractions) with debulking intent, we suggest a personalized treatment strategy to improve tumor control by delivering high dose intermittent radiation treatment (iRT, [Formula: see text] Gy [Formula: see text] 1 every 6 weeks). We performed a simulation analysis to compare HFSRT, iRT and iRT plus boost ([Formula: see text] Gy [Formula: see text] 3 in daily fractions at time of progression) based on a mathematical model of tumor growth, radiation response and patient-specific evolution of resistance to additional treatments (pembrolizumab and bevacizumab). Model parameters were fitted from tumor growth curves of 16 patients enrolled in the phase 1 NCT02313272 trial that combined HFSRT with bevacizumab and pembrolizumab. Then, iRT +/- boost treatments were simulated and compared to HFSRT based on time to tumor regrowth. The modeling results demonstrated that iRT + boost(- boost) treatment was equal or superior to HFSRT in 15(11) out of 16 cases and that patients that remained responsive to pembrolizumab and bevacizumab would benefit most from iRT. Time to progression could be prolonged through the application of additional, intermittently delivered fractions. iRT hence provides a promising treatment option for recurrent high grade glioma patients for prospective clinical evaluation.

Image-based personalization of computational models for predicting response of high-grade glioma to chemoradiation

High-grade gliomas are an aggressive and invasive malignancy which are susceptible to treatment resistance due to heterogeneity in intratumoral properties such as cell proliferation and density and perfusion. Non-invasive imaging approaches can measure these properties, which can then be used to calibrate patient-specific mathematical models of tumor growth and response. We employed multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to identify tumor extent (via contrast-enhanced T1-weighted, and T2-FLAIR) and capture intratumoral heterogeneity in cell density (via diffusion-weighted imaging) to calibrate a family of mathematical models of chemoradiation response in nine patients with unresected or partially resected disease. The calibrated model parameters were used to forecast spatially-mapped individual tumor response at future imaging visits. We then employed the Akaike information criteria to select the most parsimonious member from the family, a novel two-species model describing the enhancing and non-enhancing components of the tumor. Using this model, we achieved low error in predictions of the enhancing volume (median: - 2.5%, interquartile range: 10.0%) and a strong correlation in total cell count (Kendall correlation coefficient 0.79) at 3-months post-treatment. These preliminary results demonstrate the plausibility of using multiparametric MRI data to inform spatially-informative, biologically-based predictive models of tumor response in the setting of clinical high-grade gliomas.

Data Driven Mathematical Model of Colon Cancer Progression

Every colon cancer has its own unique characteristics, and therefore may respond differently to identical treatments. Here, we develop a data driven mathematical model for the interaction network of key components of immune microenvironment in colon cancer. We estimate the relative abundance of each immune cell from gene expression profiles of tumors, and group patients based on their immune patterns. Then we compare the tumor sensitivity and progression in each of these groups of patients, and observe differences in the patterns of tumor growth between the groups. For instance, in tumors with a smaller density of naive macrophages than activated macrophages, a higher activation rate of macrophages leads to an increase in cancer cell density, demonstrating a negative effect of macrophages. Other tumors however, exhibit an opposite trend, showing a positive effect of macrophages in controlling tumor size. Although the results indicate that for all patients the size of the tumor is sensitive to the parameters related to macrophages, such as their activation and death rate, this research demonstrates that no single biomarker could predict the dynamics of tumors.