Prognostic value of preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen/tumor size in rectal cancer

Risk Factors for Distant Metastasis in T3 T4 Rectal Cancer

Background

Distant metastasis is the leading cause of death in patients with rectal cancer. This study aims to comprehensively analyze the risk factors of distant metastasis in T3 T4 rectal cancer using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), pathological features, and serum indicators.

Methods

The clinicopathological data of 146 cases of T3 T4 rectal cancer after radical resection from January 2015 to March 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. Pre- and postoperative follow-up data of all cases were collected to screen for distant metastatic lesions. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression methods were used to analyze the relationship between MRI features, pathological results, serum test indexes, and distant metastasis.

Results

Of the 146 included patients, synchronous or metachronous distance metastasis was confirmed in 43 (29.4%) cases. The patients' baseline data and univariate analysis showed that mrEMVI, maximum tumor diameter, mr T Stage, pathological N stage, number of lymph node metastasis, cancer nodules, preoperative serum CEA, (Carcinoembryonic antigen) and CA199 were associated with distant metastasis. In the multiple logistic regression model, mrEMVI, pathological N stage, number of lymph node metastasis, maximum tumor diameter, and preoperative serum CEA were identified as independent risk factors for distant metastasis: mrEMVI [odds ratio (OR) = 3.06], pathological N stage (OR = 6.52 for N1 vs N0; OR = 63.47 for N2 vs N0), preoperative serum CEA (OR = 0.27), tumor maximum diameter (OR = 1.03), number of lymph nodes metastasis (OR = 0.62). And, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted and the area under the curve was calculated (area under the curve [AUC) = 0.817, 95% CI = 0.744-0.890, P < .001].

Conclusions

mrEMVI, pathological N stage, number of lymph node metastasis, maximum tumor diameter and preoperative serum CEA are the independent risk factors for distant metastasis in T3 T4 rectal cancer. A comprehensive analysis of the risk factors for distant metastasis in rectal cancer can provide a reliable basis for formulating individualized treatment strategies, follow-up plans, and evaluating prognosis.

Prognostic value of the ratio of pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen to tumor volume in rectal cancer

Background

As a commonly used biomarker in rectal cancer (RC), the prognostic value of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) remains underexplored. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic value of pretreatment CEA/tumor volume in RC.

Methods

This retrospective study included patients who underwent pretreatment magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with histologically confirmed primary rectal adenocarcinoma from November 2012 to April 2018. Patients were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups according to the median values of CEA/Diapath (CEA to pathological diameter), CEA/DiaMRI (CEA to MRI tumor diameter), and CEA/VolMRI (CEA to MRI tumor volume). Cox regression analysis was utilized to determine the prognostic value of CEA, CEA/Diapath, CEA/DiaMRI, and CEA/VolMRI. Stepwise regression was used to establish nomograms for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Predictive performance was estimated by using the concordance index (C-index) and area under curve receiver operating characteristic (AUC).

Results

A total of 343 patients [median age 58.99 years, 206 (60.06%) males] were included. After adjusting for patient-related and tumor-related factors, CEA/VolMRI was superior to CEA, CEA/Diapath, and CEA/DiaMRI in distinguishing high-risk from low-risk patients in terms of DFS [hazard ratio (HR) =1.83; P=0.010] and OS (HR =1.67; P=0.048). Subanalysis revealed that CEA/VolMRI stratified high death risk in CEA-negative individuals (HR =2.50; P=0.038), and also stratified low recurrence risk in CEA-positive individuals (HR =2.06; P=0.024). In the subanalysis of stage II or III cases, the highest HRs and the smallest P values were observed in distinguishing high-risk from low-risk patients according to CEA/VolMRI in terms of DFS (HR =2.44; P=0.046 or HR =2.41; P=0.001) and OS (HR =1.96; P=0.130 or HR =2.22; P=0.008). The nomograms incorporating CEA/VolMRI showed good performance, with a C-index of 0.72 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.79] for DFS and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68-0.80) for OS.

Conclusions

Higher CEA/VolMRI was associated with worse DFS and OS. CEA/VolMRI was superior to CEA, CEA/Diapath, and CEA/DiaMRI in predicting DFS and OS. Pretreatment CEA/VolMRI may facilitate risk stratification and treatment decision-making.

Carcinoembryonic Antigen CEA - Prognostic Value in Immediate Post-Operative Mortality in Colorectal Cancer

INTRODUCTION

This study investigates the prognostic significance of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels in predicting early postoperative mortality in patients who have undergone colorectal cancer surgery.

METHODS

Between 2017 and 2022, total of 325 patients were enrolled in the study, and their preoperative serum CEA levels were measured. Relevant clinical and operative data were extracted and correlations between CEA levels and postoperative mortality was analysed.

RESULTS

Among the surgical cases, 180 patients (55.3%) exhibited elevated CEA levels. Within the early postoperative period of 30 days, 14 patients (4.3%) succumbed, comprising 8 cases (2.4%) of colon cancer and 6 cases (1.8%) of rectal cancer. Notably, only 3 cases (0.9%), consisting of 1 (0.3%) colon cancer and 2 (0.6%) rectal cancer cases, were associated with an elevated CEA level. However, no statistically significant correlations were observed between CEA levels and early postoperative mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that increased CEA levels may not serve as a reliable non-invasive marker for identifying patients at high risk of early mortality in the context of colo-rectal cancer surgery.

Development and validation of a competitive risk model in patients with rectal cancer: based on SEER database

BACKGROUND

Rectal cancer is one of the most common malignancies. To predict the specific mortality risk of rectal cancer patients, we constructed a predictive nomogram based on a competing risk model.

METHODS

The information on rectal cancer patients was extracted from the SEER database. Traditional survival analysis and specific death analysis were performed separately on the data.

RESULTS

The present study included 23,680 patients, with 16,580 in the training set and 7100 in the validation set. The specific mortality rate calculated by the competing risk model was lower than that of the traditional survival analysis. Age, Marriage, Race, Sex, ICD-O-3Hist/Behav, Grade, AJCC stage, T stage, N stage, Surgery, Examined LN, RX SUMM-SURG OTH, Chemotherapy, CEA, Deposits, Regional nodes positive, Brain, Bone, Liver, Lung, Tumor size, and Malignant were independent influencing factors of specific death. The overall C statistic of the model in the training set was 0.821 (Se = 0.001), and the areas under the ROC curve for cancer-specific survival (CSS) at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.842, 0.830, and 0.812, respectively. The overall C statistic of the model in the validation set was 0.829 (Se = 0.002), and the areas under the ROC curve for CSS at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.851, 0.836, and 0.813, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive nomogram based on a competing risk model for time-specific mortality in patients with rectal cancer has very desirable accuracy. Thus, the application of the predictive nomogram in clinical practice can help physicians make clinical decisions and follow-up strategies.

Development and validation of a clinical cure marker based on negative lymph nodes for gastric cancer after gastrectomy

Objective

To explore lymph node (LN)-related derived indicators as clinical cure markers for gastric cancer (GC) after gastrectomy.

Methods

Data of resected GC patients were extracted from the SEER database and our own department. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to balance the baseline differences between the clinical cure and the nonclinical cure groups. The area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to choose the optimal marker, and survival analysis was used to validate the clinical value of the most effective marker.

Results

After PSM, the differences in age, sex, race, location, surgical type, and histologic type between the two groups were significantly reduced (all P > 0.05), and the AUCs of examined LNs (ELNs), negative LNs (NLNs), ESR (ELNs/tumor size), ETR (ELNs/T-stage), NSR (NLNs/tumor size), NTR (NLNs/T-stage), EPR (ELNs/PLNs) and NPR (NLNs/PLNs) were 0.522, 0.625, 0.622, 0.692, 0.706, 0.751, 7.43, and 7.50, respectively. When NTR was 5.9, the Youden index of 0.378 was the highest. The sensitivity and specificity were 67.5% and 70.3% in the training group and 66.79% and 67.8% in the validation group, respectively. DCA showed that NTR had the largest net clinical benefit, and patients with NTR greater than 5.9 had significantly prolonged overall survival in our own cohort.

Conclusion

NLNs, NTR, NSR, ESR, ETR, NPR and EPR can be used as clinical cure markers. However, NTR was the most effective, and the best cutoff value was 5.9.

Construction of a predictive model for clinical survival in male patients with non-metastatic rectal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

No clinical prediction model is available for non-metastatic rectal adenocarcinoma in males. Based on demographic and clinicopathological characteristics, we constructed a survival prediction model for the study population.

METHODS

At a ratio of 7:3, 3450 eligible patients were divided into training and validation sets. Optimal cutoff values were calculated using X-tile software. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to find prognostic factors for cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Corresponding nomogram prognostic models were also constructed based on predictors.The validity, discriminative ability, predictability, and clinical usefulness of the model were analyzed and assessed.

RESULTS

We identified predictors of survival in the target population and successfully constructed nomograms. In the nomogram prediction model for OS and CSS, the C-index was 0.724 and 0.735, respectively, for the training group and 0.754 and 0.760, respectively, for the validation group. In the validation group, the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve for OS and CSS nomograms was 0.768 and 0.769, respectively, for the 3-year survival rate and 0.755 and 0.747, respectively, for the 5-year survival rate. Kaplan-Meier Survival Curves showed excellent risk discrimination performance of the nomogram (P < 0.05) Calibration curves, time-dependent AUC and decision curve analysis showed that the prediction model constructed in this study had excellent clinical prediction and decision ability and performed better than the TNM staging system.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram is helpful to evaluate the prognosis of non-metastatic male patients with rectal adenocarcinoma and has guiding significance for clinical treatment.

Survival and prognostic factors of ultra-low rectal cancer patients after anus-preserving surgery

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is a highly malignant tumor. Anus-preserving surgery can effectively prolong the survival of patients with ultra-low rectal cancer. However, the postoperative survival of patients is affected by many factors. Identification of the relevant prognostic factors is of important guiding value in enhancing postoperative intervention and improving the quality of life of patients.

AIM

To explore the survival of patients with ultra-low rectal cancer after anus-preserving surgery, and to analyze the prognostic factors.

METHODS

A total of 152 patients with low rectal cancer were selected from March 2016 to March 2018 at our hospital, all of whom received anus-preserving surgery for ultra-low rectal cancer. The overall survival rate and disease-free survival rate at 1, 2, and 3 years after surgery were analyzed. The perioperative clinical data of patients with different prognostic conditions were compared, and the prognostic factors were analyzed.

RESULTS

The 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall survival rates were 100%, 89.8% and 70.75%, respectively, and the 1-, 2-, and 3-year disease-free survival rates were 91.16%, 76.19%, and 60.54%, respectively. Age at surgery, tumor diameter, serum carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), hypoxia-inducing-factor 1α (HIF-1α) levels, TNM stage, and postoperative catheter indwelling time of patients who survived 3 years after surgery were all lower than those of patients who died, and the incidence of lymph node metastasis, vascular invasion, and nerve invasion was lower than that of patients who died. The distance from anal margin, serum miR-192 level, differentiation degree, and PNAG score were all significantly higher than those of dead patients (P < 0.05). The distance to the anal margin, serum CA125, CEA, HIF-1α, and miR-192 levels, PNAG score, and postoperative catheter indwelling time were significantly correlated with the prognosis of patients with ultra-low rectal cancer after anus-preserving surgery (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The 3-year overall survival rate of patients with ultra-low rectal cancer after anus-preserving surgery is more than 70%. The distance between tumor and anal margin, serum CA125, CEA, HIF-1α, and miR-192 levels, PNAG score, and postoperative catheter indwelling time are prognostic factors for these patients.

Comparative study of radiomics, tumor morphology, and clinicopathological factors in predicting overall survival of patients with rectal cancer before surgery

•

Radiomics analysis of pretreatment MR images could predict overall survival (OS) in patients.

•

Clinical, pathological and MRI imaging indexes were included and models were established. Tumor morphological model, clinicopathological model, radiomics model and comprehensive model were used to evaluate the prognosis of patients with rectal cancer. It can explore the influence of the above factors on the prognosis of rectal cancer from multi-level and multi-angle.

•

The proposed radiomics nomogram showed better prognostic performance than the clinicopathological and imaging model in risk stratification and can classify patients into high- and low-risk groups with significant differences in OS.

We compared the ability of a radiomics model, morphological imaging model, and clinicopathological risk model to predict 3-year overall survival (OS) in 206 patients with rectal cancer who underwent radical surgery and had magnetic resonance imaging, clinicopathological, and OS data available. The patients were randomized to a training cohort (n = 146) and a verification cohort (n = 60). Radiomics features were extracted from preoperative T2-weighted images, and a radiomics score model was constructed. Factors that were significant in the Cox multivariate analysis were used to construct the final morphological tumor model and clinicopathological model. A comprehensive model in the form of a line chart was established by combining the three models. Ten radiomics features significantly related to OS were selected to construct the radiomics feature model and calculate the radiomics score. In the morphological model, mesorectal extension depth and distance between the lower tumor margin and the anal margin were significant prognostic factors. N stage was the only significant clinicopathological factor. The comprehensive model combined with the above factors had the best prediction performance for OS. The C-index had a predictive performance of 0.872 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.832–0.912) in the training cohort and 0.944 (95% CI: 0.890–0.990) in the verification cohort, which was better than for any single model. The comprehensive model was divided into high-risk and low-risk groups. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis showed that all factors were significantly correlated with poor OS in the high-risk group. A comprehensive nomogram based on multi-model radiomics features can predict 3-year OS after rectal cancer surgery.

Develop a nomogram to predict overall survival of patients with borderline ovarian tumors

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of borderline ovarian tumors (BOTs) has been the concern of clinicians and patients. It is urgent to develop a model to predict the survival of patients with BOTs.

AIM

To construct a nomogram to predict the likelihood of overall survival (OS) in patients with BOTs.

METHODS

A total of 192 patients with histologically verified BOTs and 374 patients with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) were retrospectively investigated for clinical characteristics and survival outcomes. A 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was performed to eliminate selection bias. Survival was analyzed by using the log-rank test and the restricted mean survival time (RMST). Next, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify meaningful independent prognostic factors. In addition, a nomogram model was developed to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival of patients with BOTs. The predictive performance of the model was assessed by using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

For clinical data, there was no significant difference in body mass index, preoperative CA199 concentration, or tumor localization between the BOTs group and EOC group. Women with BOTs were significantly younger than those with EOC. There was a significant difference in menopausal status, parity, preoperative serum CA125 concentration, Federation International of gynecology and obstetrics (FIGO) stage, and whether patients accepted postoperative adjuvant therapy between the BOT and EOC group. After PSM, patients with BOTs had better overall survival than patients with EOC (P value = 0.0067); more importantly, the 5-year RMST of BOTs was longer than that of EOC (P value = 0.0002, 95%CI -1.137 to -0.263). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that diagnosed age and surgical type were independent risk factors for BOT patient OS (P value < 0.05). A nomogram was developed based on diagnosed age, preoperative serum CA125 and CA199 Levels, surgical type, FIGO stage, and tumor size. Moreover, the c-index (0.959, 95% confidence interval 0.8708–1.0472), calibration plot of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS, and decision curve analysis indicated the accurate predictive ability of this model.

CONCLUSION

Patients with BOTs had a better prognosis than patients with EOC. The nomogram we constructed might be helpful for clinicians in personalized treatment planning and patient counseling.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival in young non-metastatic rectal cancer patients after curative resection: a population-based analysis

PURPOSE

This study aimed to establish and validate a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in young non-metastatic rectal cancer (RC) patients after curative resection.

METHODS

Young RC patients (under 50 years of age) from 2010 to 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Those patients randomly assigned to a training cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. The independent prognostic factors for OS were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. A nomogram model was built based on the independent prognostic variables and was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

A total number of 3026 young RC patients were extracted from SEER database. OS nomogram was constructed based on race, histological type, tumor grade, T stage, N stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, and number of lymph nodes (LN) examined. C-index, ROC curves, calibration plot, and DCA curves presented satisfactory performance of the above nomogram in predicting the prognosis of young non-metastatic RC patients after curative resection. The nomogram can identify three subgroups of patients at different risks, which showed different prognostic outcomes both in the training cohort and validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

We successfully established a reliable and insightful nomogram to predict OS for young non-metastatic RC patients after curative resection. The nomogram may provide accurate prognosis prediction to guide individualized follow-up and treatment plans.

A Prognostic Nomogram for T3N0 Rectal Cancer After Total Mesorectal Excision to Help Select Patients for Adjuvant Therapy

Background

The recurrence rate of T3N0 rectal cancer after total mesorectal excision (TME) is relatively low, meaning that not all patients need adjuvant therapy (AT) (radiotherapy, chemotherapy, or chemoradiotherapy).

Methods

Patients diagnosed with pT3N0M0 rectal cancer after TME were analyzed using the SEER database, of which 4367 did not receive AT and 2794 received AT. Propensity score matching was used to balance the two groups in terms of confounding factors. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to screen independent prognostic factors, which were then used to establish a nomogram. The patients were then divided into three groups with X-tile software according to their risk scores. We enrolled 334 patients as external validation.

Results

The C-index of the model was 0.725 (95% confidence interval: 0.694–0.756). We divided the patients into three different risk layers based on the nomogram prediction scores, and found that AT did not improve the prognosis of low- and moderate-risk patients, while high-risk patients benefited from AT. External validation data also support the above conclusions.

Conclusion

This study developed a nomogram that effectively and comprehensively evaluates the prognosis of T3N0 rectal cancer patients after TME. After using the nomogram, we recommend AT for high-risk patients, but not for low- and moderate-risk patients.

Prognostic value of the ratio of carcinoembryonic antigen concentration to maximum tumor diameter in patients with stage II colorectal cancer

Background

Recently, a study from our center indicated that the ratio of preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) concentration to maximum tumor diameter (DMAX) may be a prognostic marker for patients with rectal cancer. Therefore, the study aimed to evaluate whether this ratio (CEA/DMAX) has prognostic value for patients with stage II colorectal cancer (CRC).

Methods

A prospectively maintained database was searched for patients with pathologically confirmed stage II CRC who underwent surgery between January 2010 and March 2019. Patients were stratified according to the mean CEA/DMAX value into low and high CEA/DMAX groups. Kaplan-Meier, univariable, and multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate whether the CEA/DMAX could predict overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Nomograms were constructed in terms of the results of multivariable Cox regression analyses.

Results

The study included 2,499 patients with stage II CRC. The mean CEA/DMAX value was 2.33 (ng/mL per cm). Kaplan-Meier analyses revealed that, relative to the low CEA/DMAX group, the high CEA/DMAX group had significantly poorer OS (67.31% vs. 85.02%, P<0.001) and DFS (61.41% vs. 77.10%, P<0.001). The multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that CEA/DMAX independently predicted OS (hazard ratio: 2.58, 95% confidence interval: 1.51-4.38, P<0.001) and DFS (hazard ratio: 1.97, 95% confidence interval: 1.38-2.83, P<0.001). Two simple-to-use nomograms comprising CEA/DMAX, age, T stage, and lymphovascular invasion were developed to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year rates of OS and DFS among patients with stage II CRC. The nomograms had good performance based on the concordance index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and calibration curves. Subgroup analyses further confirmed that a high CEA/DMAX was associated with poor OS and DFS among patients with stage II colon cancer and among patients with stage II rectal cancer (both P<0.05).

Conclusions

Among patients with stage II CRC, a high CEA/DMAX independently predicted poor OS and DFS, and the predictive abilities were also observed in subgroup analyses of patients with stage II colon cancer or rectal cancer. Furthermore, we developed two nomograms that had good accuracy for predicting the prognosis of stage II CRC.

Can we optimize CEA as a response marker in rectal cancer?

BACKGROUND AND AIM

carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is a biomarker commonly used in colorectal cancer. However, its prognostic value is still controversial. Recent studies demonstrate that CEA produced locally by tumor cells has a higher prognostic value compared to serum CEA. This study aimed to determine whether there was an association between the CEA/tumor size ratio (CEA/ExT) and the pathological tumor response in patients with rectal adenocarcinoma (ADC), who underwent neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (N-CRT), followed by surgical tumor resection.

METHODS

a retrospective study was performed of rectal ADC patients who underwent N-CRT followed by curative surgery between March/2012 and October/2017. CEA and tumor extension for pre-treatment CEA/ExT calculation and the pathological response in the surgical specimen after treatment were analyzed.

RESULTS

eighty-nine patients were included, 60.7 % were male and the mean age was 63.8 ± 10.42. There was a good response to N-CRT in 41.6 % of the patients, tumor downstaging occurred in 83.1 % and a complete pathological response in 23.6 % of cases. The average CEA/ExT was 2.01 ng/ml/cm. In the univariate analysis, higher CEA/ExT values were related to a lower frequency of pathological response (p = 0.04) and to a lower frequency of tumor downstaging (p = 0.02). In the multivariate analysis, CEA/ExT was independently related to tumor downstaging (OR: 0.72; 95 % IC: 0.53-0.98, p-0.036).

CONCLUSIONS

lower pre-treatment CEA/ExT values seem to be associated with tumor downstaging and this parameter may be a promising predictor of a more favorable response in patients with rectal ADC undergoing treatment with N-CRT.

Critical prognostic value of the log odds of negative lymph nodes/tumor size in rectal cancer patients

BACKGROUND

The number of negative lymph nodes (NLNs) and tumor size are associated with prognosis in rectal cancer patients undergoing surgical resection. However, little is known about the prognostic significance of the NLN count after adjusting for tumor size.

AIM

To assess the prognostic impact of the log odds of NLN/tumor size (LONS) in rectal cancer patients.

METHODS

Data of patients with stage I–III rectal cancer were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database. These patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to determine the prognostic value of the LONS. The optimal cutoff values of LONS were calculated using the "X-tile" program. Stratified analysis of the effect of LONS on cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were performed. The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used to plot the survival curve and compare the survival data among the different groups.

RESULTS

In all, 41080 patients who met the inclusion criteria were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 28775, 70%) and a validation cohort (n = 12325, 30%). Univariate and multivariate analyses identified the continuous variable LONS as an independent prognostic factor for CSS [training cohort: Hazard ratio (HR) = 0.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.44–0.51, P < 0.001; validation cohort: HR = 0.46, 95%CI: 0.41-0.52, P < 0.001] and OS (training cohort: HR = 0.53, 95%CI: 0.49-0.56, P < 0.001; validation cohort: HR = 0.52, 95%CI: 0.42-0.52, P < 0.001). The X-tile program indicated that the difference in CSS was the most significant for LONS of -0.8, and the cutoff value of -0.4 can further distinguish patients with a better prognosis in the high LONS group. Stratified analysis of the effect of the categorical variable LONS on CSS and OS revealed that LONS was also an independent predictor, independent of pN stage, pT stage, tumor-node-metastasis stage, site, age, sex, the number of examined lymph nodes, race, preoperative radiotherapy and carcinoembryonic antigen level.

CONCLUSION

LONS is associated with improved survival of rectal cancer patients independent of other clinicopathological factors.

Prognostic Impact of Pretreatment Elevated and Normalized Carcinoembryonic Antigen Levels After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Resected Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients

Purpose

The prognostic significance of pretreatment elevated and normalized CEA after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) was evaluated.

Materials and Methods

The characteristics of 951 locally advanced rectal cancer patients with nCRT were retrieved and were analyzed retrospectively. Pretreatment CEA levels were defined as CEA evaluated one week prior to the nCRT. CEA after nCRT was deemed as CEA measured one week before surgery. The normal CEA levels were set at <5 ng/mL. The normal CEA group was defined as patients with normal pretreatment CEA levels. The normalized CEA group was defined as patients with elevated pretreatment CEA levels and normal CEA levels after nCRT. The elevated CEA group was defined as patients with elevated pretreatment CEA levels and elevated CEA levels after nCRT.

Results

Compared with the elevated CEA group, the normalized CEA group was associated with better overall survival (OS) (HR: 0.625, 95%CI: 0.416-0.938, P=0.022). There was no difference between the normalized CEA group and the normal CEA group (HR: 1.143, 95%CI: 0.84-1.557, P=0.395).

Conclusion

In conclusion, the study indicated that OS of the normalized CEA group and the normal CEA group was better than the elevated CEA group.

No benefit of more intense follow-up after surgery for colorectal cancer in the risk group with elevated CEA levels - An analysis within the COLOFOL randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Patients with colorectal cancer were examined to determine (1) whether elevated carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, either before treatment or after surgery, was associated with an increased risk of overall or colorectal cancer-specific mortality or recurrence, and (2) whether high intensity follow-up would benefit those patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Post-hoc analysis based on 2509 patients that underwent surgery for colorectal cancer, stage II or III, in the COLOFOL randomized trial with 5-year follow-up. Serum CEA levels were ascertained before treatment and one month after surgery. Follow-up examinations included computed tomography of the thorax and abdomen and serum CEA sampling. Patients were randomized to examinations at either 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months (high-intensity group) or at 12 and 36 months after surgery (low-intensity group). Levels of CEA >5 μg/l were defined as elevated.

RESULTS

Elevated CEA levels before treatment were associated with increased risk of recurrence (hazard ratio [HR], 1.49; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.22-1.83), colorectal cancer-specific mortality (HR, 1.44; 95% CI: 1.08-1.91), and overall mortality (HR, 1.38; 95% CI: 1.07-1.78). Elevated CEA levels after surgery were associated with increased colorectal cancer-specific mortality (HR, 1.68; 95% CI: 1.08-2.61) and overall mortality (HR, 1.79; 95% CI: 1.22-2.63). The intensity of the follow-up regimen had no effect on 5-year outcomes in patients with elevated CEA levels.

CONCLUSION

Both pre-treatment and post-surgery elevated serum CEA levels were associated with increased overall and cancer-specific mortality. Intensified follow-up showed no benefit over low-intensity follow-up in this high-risk group of patients with elevated CEA levels.

Construction of a clinical survival prognostic model for middle-aged and elderly patients with stage III rectal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Nomograms for prognosis prediction in colorectal cancer patients are few, and prognostic indicators differ with age.

AIM

To construct a new nomogram survival prediction tool for middle-aged and elderly patients with stage III rectal adenocarcinoma.

METHODS

A total of 2773 eligible patients were divided into the training cohort (70%) and the validation cohort (30%). Optimal cutoff values were calculated using the X-tile software for continuous variables. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to determine overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS)-related prognostic factors. Two nomograms were successfully constructed. The discriminant and predictive ability and clinical usefulness of the model were also assessed by multiple methods of analysis.

RESULTS

The 95%CI in the training group was 0.719 (0.690-0.749) and 0.733 (0.702-0.74), while that in the validation group was 0.739 (0.696-0.782) and 0.750 (0.701-0.800) for the OS and CSS nomogram prediction models, respectively. In the validation group, the AUC of the three-year survival rate was 0.762 and 0.770, while the AUC of the five-year survival rate was 0.722 and 0.744 for the OS and CSS nomograms, respectively. The nomogram distinguishes all-cause mortality from cancer-specific mortality in patients with different risk grades. The time-dependent AUC and decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram had good clinical predictive ability and decision efficacy and was significantly better than the tumor-node-metastases staging system.

CONCLUSION

The survival prediction model constructed in this study is helpful in evaluating the prognosis of patients and can aid physicians in clinical diagnosis and treatment.

Associations of baseline patient-reported outcomes with treatment outcomes in advanced gastrointestinal cancer

BACKGROUND

Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) assessing quality of life (QOL) and symptom burden correlate with clinical outcomes in patients with cancer. However, to the authors' knowledge, data regarding associations between PROs and treatment response are lacking.

METHODS

The authors prospectively approached consecutive patients with advanced gastrointestinal cancer who were initiating a new treatment. Prior to treatment, patients reported their QOL (Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General [FACT-G], 4 subscales: Functional, Physical, Emotional, Social; higher scores indicate better QOL) and symptom burden (Edmonton Symptom Assessment System [ESAS], Patient Health Questionnaire-4 [PHQ-4]; higher scores represent greater symptoms). Regression models were used to examine associations of baseline PROs with treatment response (clinical benefit or progressive disease [PD] at time of first scan), healthcare utilization, and survival.

RESULTS

From May 2019 to April 2020, a total of 112 patients with advanced gastrointestinal cancer were enrolled. For treatment response, 64.3% had CB and 35.7% had PD. Higher baseline ESAS-Physical (odds ratio, 1.04; P = .027) and lower FACT-G Functional (odds ratio, 0.92; P = .038) scores were associated with PD. Higher ESAS-Physical (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; P = .044) and lower FACT-G Total (HR, 0.96; P = .005), FACT-G Physical (HR, 0.89; P < .001), and FACT-G Functional (HR, 0.87; P < .001) scores were associated with a greater hospitalization risk. Lower FACT-G Total (HR, 0.96; P = .009) and FACT-G Emotional (HR, 0.86; P = .012) scores as well as higher ESAS-Total (HR, 1.03; P = .014) and ESAS-Physical (HR, 1.04; P = .032) scores were associated with worse survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline PROs are associated with treatment response in patients with advanced gastrointestinal cancer, namely physical symptoms and functional QOL, in addition to health care use and survival. The findings of the current study support the association between PROs and important clinical outcomes, including the novel finding of treatment response.

Epigenetic Inactivation of α-Internexin Accelerates Microtubule Polymerization in Colorectal Cancer

DNA methylation contributes to malignant transformation, but little is known about how the methylation drives colorectal cancer evolution at the early stages. Here we identify aberrant INA (α-internexin) gene methylation in colon adenoma and adenocarcinoma by filtering data obtained from a genome-wide screen of methylated genes. The gene encoding INA, a type IV intermediate filament, was frequently hypermethylated in CpG islands located in the promoter region. This hypermethylation preferentially occurred in large tumors and was a prognostic marker for poor overall survival in patients with colorectal cancer. This type of epigenetic alteration silenced INA expression in both adenoma and adenocarcinoma tissues. Gene silencing of INA in colorectal cancer cells increased cell proliferation, migration, and invasion. Restored INA expression blocked migration and invasion in vitro and reduced lung metastasis in vivo. Mechanistically, INA directly inhibited microtubule polymerization in vitro and decreased intracellular microtubule plus-end assembly rates. A peptide array screen surveying the tubulin-binding sites in INA identified a tubulin-binding motif located in the N-terminal head domain that plays a tumor-suppressive role by binding to unpolymerized tubulins and impeding microtubule polymerization. Thus, epigenetic inactivation of INA is an intermediate filament reorganization event that is essential to accelerate microtubule polymerization in the early stages of colorectal cancer. SIGNIFICANCE: This work provides insight into the epigenetic inactivation of INA, a novel identified tumor suppressor, which increases microtubule polymerization during colorectal cancer progression.

Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival of Resected Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients with Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

PURPOSE

The overall survival (OS) of resected locally advanced rectal cancer patients who underwent neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) was significantly different, even among patients with the same tumor stage. The nomogram was designed to predict OS of rectal cancer with nCRT and divide the patients into different risk groups.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Based on materials from 911 rectal cancer patients with nCRT, the multivariable Cox regression model was carried out to select the significant prognostic factors for overall survival. And then, the nomogram was formulated using these independent prognostic factors. The discrimination of the nomogram was assessed by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves and time-dependent area under curve (AUC). The patients respective risk scores were calculated through the nomogram. The best cut-off risk score was calculated to stratify the patients. The survival curves of the two different risk cohorts were performed, which assessed the predictive ability of the nomogram.

RESULTS

Age, cT stage, pretreatment CEA, pretreatment CA19-9, surgery, posttreatment CEA, posttreatment CA19-9, pT stage, pN stage and adjuvant chemotherapy were selected for the construction of the nomogram. And then the nomogram was constructed with independent prognostic factors. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.724, which showed the nomogram provided good discernment. The acceptable agreement between the predictions of nomogram and actual observations was illustrated by calibration plots for 3-, 5- and 10-year OS in the cohort. Time-dependent AUC with 6-fold cross-validation also showed consistent results of the nomogram. Risk group stratification confirmed that the nomogram had great capacity for distinguishing the prognosis.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram was developed and validated to predict overall survival of resected locally advanced rectal cancer patients with nCRT. The proposed nomogram might help clinicians to develop individualized treatment strategies. However, further studies are warranted to optimize the nomogram by finding out other unknown prognostic factors, and more external validation is still required.

Nomograms for Prediction of Molecular Phenotypes in Colorectal Cancer

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with different molecular phenotypes, including microsatellite instability (MSI), CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), and somatic mutations in BRAF and KRAS gene, vary in treatment response and prognosis. However, molecular phenotyping under adequate quality control in a community-based setting may be difficult. We aimed to build the nomograms based on easily accessible clinicopathological characteristics to predict molecular phenotypes.

Methods

Three hundred and six patients with pathologically confirmed stage I-IV CRC were included in the cohort. The assays for MSI, CIMP, and mutations in BRAF and KRAS gene were performed using resected tumor samples. The candidate predictors were identified from clinicopathological variables using multivariate Logistic regression analyses to construct the nomograms that could predict each molecular phenotype.

Results

The incidences of MSI, CIMP, BRAF mutation and KRAS mutation were 25.3% (72/285), 2.5% (7/270), 3.4% (10/293), and 34.8% (96/276) respectively. In the multivariate Logistic analysis, poor differentiation and high neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were independently associated with MSI; poor differentiation, high NLR and high carcinoembryonic antigen/tumor size ratio (CSR) were independently associated with CIMP; poor differentiation, lymphovascular invasion and high CSR were independently associated with BRAF mutation; poor differentiation, proximal tumor, mucinous tumor and high NLR were independently associated with KRAS mutation. Four nomograms for MSI, CIMP, BRAF mutation and KRAS mutation were developed based on these independent predictors, the C-indexes of which were 61.22% (95% CI: 60.28–62.16%), 95.57% (95% CI: 95.20–95.94%), 83.56% (95% CI: 81.54–85.58%), and 69.12% (95% CI: 68.30–69.94%) respectively.

Conclusion

We established four nomograms using easily accessible variables that could well predict the presence of MSI, CIMP, BRAF mutation and KRAS mutation in CRC patients.