Mapping dengue cases through a national network of laboratories, 2014-2015

Dengue situation in India: Suitability and transmission potential model for present and projected climate change scenarios

Dengue fever is mosquito borne viral disease caused by dengue virus and transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. In recent years the dengue has spread rapidly to several regions and it becomes a major public health menace globally. Dengue transmission is strongly influenced by environmental factors such as temperature and rainfall. In the present study, a climate driven dengue model was developed and predicted areas vulnerable for dengue transmission under the present and future climate change scenarios in India. The study also projected the dengue distribution risk map using representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in India in 2018-2030 (forthcoming period), 2031-2050 (intermediate period) and 2051-2080 (long period). The dengue cases assessed in India from 1998 to 2018 and found that the dengue transmission is gradually increasing year over year. The temperature data from 1980 to 2017 shows that, the mean temperatures are raising in the Southern region of India. During 2000-2017 periods the dengue transmission is steadily increasing across the India in compare with 1980-1999 periods. The dengue distribution risk is predicted and it is revealed that the coastal states have yearlong transmission possibility, but the high transmission potential is observed throughout the monsoon period. Due to the climate change, the expansion two more months of dengue transmission risk occurs in many regions of India. Both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios revealed that dengue outbreaks might occur at larger volume in Southern, Eastern, and Central regions of India. Furthermore a sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the impact of climate change on dengue transmission. These results helps to suggest appropriate control measures should be implemented to limit the spread in future warmer climates. Besides these, a proper plan is required to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the epidemic potential of dengue in India.

Space time analysis of dengue fever diagnosed through a network of laboratories in India from 2014-2017

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES

The Department of Health Research and the Indian Council of Medical Research, Government of India, have established Virus Research and Diagnostic Laboratory Network (VRDLN) to strengthen the laboratory capacity in the country for providing timely diagnosis of disease outbreaks. Fifty-one VRDLs were functional as on December 2017 and had reported about dengue fever across Indian states. The objectives of the study were to detect space time clusters and purely temporal clusters of dengue using Kulldorff's SaTScan statistics using patient level information; and to identify regions at greater risk of developing the disease using Kriging technique aggregating at district level.

METHODS

A total of 211,432 patients from 51 VRDLs were investigated for IgM antibodies or NS1 antigen against dengue virus during the period from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2017 and among them 60,096 (28.4%) were found to be positive. Kulldorff's space time analysis was used to identify significant clusters over space and time. Kriging technique was used to interpolate dengue data for areas not physically sampled using the relationship in the spatial arrangement of the data set. Maps obtained using both the methods were overlaid to identify the regions at greater risk of developing the disease.

RESULTS

Kulldorff Space time Scan Statistics using the Bernoulli model with monthly precision revealed eight statistically significant clusters (P <0.001) for the time period, 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2017. Eight significant clusters identified were districts of Nagpur, Jhunjhunu, Gadag, Dakshin Kannada, Kancheepuram, Sivaganga, Ernakulam and Malda. The purely temporal clusters occurred during the last quarter of 2015 and 2016. The Kriging technique identified north eastern part of the country (Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Manipur) and Gujarat.

INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION

Dengue fever has spread in all directions in the country. Hence, it is need of the hour to perform an in-depth investigation.

Epidemiology of Hepatitis A and Hepatitis E Based on Laboratory Surveillance Data-India, 2014-2017

Hepatitis A and hepatitis E viruses (HAV and HEV) are the most common etiologies of viral hepatitis in India. To better understand the epidemiology of these infections, laboratory surveillance data generated during 2014-2017, by a network of 51 virology laboratories, were analyzed. Among 24,000 patients tested for both HAV and HEV, 3,017 (12.6%) tested positive for HAV, 3,865 (16.1%) for HEV, and 320 (1.3%) for both HAV and HEV. Most (74.6%) HAV patients were aged ≤ 19 years, whereas 76.9% of HEV patients were aged ≥ 20 years. These laboratories diagnosed 12 HAV and 31 HEV clusters, highlighting the need for provision of safe drinking water and improvements in sanitation. Further expansion of the laboratory network and continued surveillance will provide data necessary for informed decision-making regarding introduction of hepatitis-A vaccine into the immunization program.

Seroprevalence and incidence of primary dengue infections among children in a rural region of Maharashtra, Western India

Background

Dengue infections have become a huge threat to public health systems in developing countries. Data on seroprevalence and incidence of dengue infections are lacking from rural regions of India. The objective of present study was to investigate the seroprevalence and incidence of dengue infection utilizing repeated serosurveys from a rural region of Maharashtra, Western India.

Methods

In the present study, 819 children between ages 5 to 15 years from 21 villages in Pune District of Maharashtra, India were sampled in 2014 and 2016. The sera were tested for the presence of dengue specific IgG using an indirect IgG ELISA kit.

Results

Overall seroprevalence of dengue was 15.3% (95% confidence intervals (CI) 12.9–17.8%) in 2014 and 20.5% (95% CI 17.8–23.4%) in 2016. Among the 694 children who were seronegative at baseline (2014), 78 seroconverted. Overall incidence rate of primary dengue was 54.2 infections/1000 children years (95% CI 43.0–67.3). Incidence of primary dengue infection was higher in children from urbanized villages compared to rural villages (Incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.6 (95% CI 1.3–5.2)). In rural villages, incidence of primary dengue infection was higher in children aged 10 years or above as compared to those aged below 10 years (IRR 9.75 (95% CI 1.21–77.9).

Conclusions

The study provides the incidence rates of primary dengue infections from a rural region of India. More multi centric studies investigating the incidence of dengue will provide accurate estimate of incidence of dengue and help formulate well directed policies. The results also suggest that urbanization and transitions in demographic settings might favour dengue outbreaks in rural regions and these regions need to be targeted for vector control measures.

Dengue infection in India: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Dengue is the most extensively spread mosquito-borne disease; endemic in more than 100 countries. Information about dengue disease burden, its prevalence, incidence and geographic distribution is critical in planning appropriate control measures against dengue fever. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of dengue fever in India.

METHODS

We searched for studies published until 2017 reporting the incidence, the prevalence or case fatality of dengue in India. Our primary outcomes were (a) prevalence of laboratory confirmed dengue infection among clinically suspected patients, (b) seroprevalence in the general population and (c) case fatality ratio among laboratory confirmed dengue patients. We used binomial-normal mixed effects regression model to estimate the pooled proportion of dengue infections. Forest plots were used to display pooled estimates. The metafor package of R software was used to conduct meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 2285 identified articles on dengue, we included 233 in the analysis wherein 180 reported prevalence of laboratory confirmed dengue infection, seven reported seroprevalence as evidenced by IgG or neutralizing antibodies against dengue and 77 reported case fatality. The overall estimate of the prevalence of laboratory confirmed dengue infection among clinically suspected patients was 38.3% (95% CI: 34.8%-41.8%). The pooled estimate of dengue seroprevalence in the general population and CFR among laboratory confirmed patients was 56.9% (95% CI: 37.5-74.4) and 2.6% (95% CI: 2-3.4) respectively. There was significant heterogeneity in reported outcomes (p-values<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Identified gaps in the understanding of dengue epidemiology in India emphasize the need to initiate community-based cohort studies representing different geographic regions to generate reliable estimates of age-specific incidence of dengue and studies to generate dengue seroprevalence data in the country.