Erratum: Predicting Liver-Related Events Using Transient Elastography in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients with Sustained Virological Response

Development and validation of a nomogram for assessing hepatocellular carcinoma risk after SVR in hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis are at high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even after sustained virological response (SVR). Clinical recommendations impose a significant burden on patients by recommending lifelong screening for HCC every six months. The goals of this study were to develop a nomogram that accurately stratifies risk of HCC and improve the screening approach that is currently in use.

METHOD

Risk factors for HCC were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses in this prospective study. We developed and validated a nomogram for assessing hepatocellular carcinoma risk after SVR in patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up period of 61.00 (57.00-66.00) months in the derivation cohort, 37 patients (9.61%) developed HCC. Older age (HR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.14, p = 0.009), male gender (HR = 2.38, 95% CI 1.10-5.13, p = 0.027), low serum albumin levels (HR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.86-1.00, p = 0.037), and high liver stiffness measurement (LSM) (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, p = 0.001) were found to be independent predictors of HCC development. Harrell's C-index for the derivation cohort was 0.81. The nomogram's 3-, 5- and 7-years time-dependent AUROCSs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.88), 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87), and 0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.85), respectively (all p > 0.05). According to the nomogram, patients are categorized as having low, intermediate, or high risk. The annual incidence rates of HCC in the three groups were 0.18%, 1.29%, and 4.45%, respectively (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, male gender, low serum albumin levels, and high LSM were risk factors for HCC after SVR in hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. We used these risk factors to establish a nomogram. The nomogram can identify a suitable screening plan by classifying hepatitis C patients according to their risk of HCC.

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Korean Patients after Hepatitis C Cure with Direct-Acting Antivirals

Background/Aims

With the wide application of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus infection, the number of patients achieving a sustained virologic response (SVR) will continue to increase. However, no consensus has been achieved on exempting SVR-achieving patients from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance.

Methods

Between 2013 and 2021, 873 Korean patients who achieved SVR following DAA treatment were analyzed. We evaluated the predictive performance of seven noninvasive scores (PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, Toronto HCC risk index, fibrosis-4, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, albumin-bilirubin, and age male albumin-bilirubin platelet [aMAP]) at baseline and after SVR.

Results

The mean age of the 873 patients (39.3% males) was 59.1 years, and 224 patients (25.7%) had cirrhosis. During 3,542 person-years of follow-up, 44 patients developed HCC, with an annual incidence of 1.24/100 person-years. Male sex (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.21), cirrhosis (AHR, 7.93), and older age (AHR, 1.05) were associated with a significantly higher HCC risk in multivariate analysis. The performance of all scores at the time of SVR were numerically better than those at baseline as determined by the integrated area under the curve. Time-dependent area under the curves for predicting the 3-, 5-, and 7-year risk of HCC after SVR were higher in mPAGE-B (0.778, 0.746, and 0.812, respectively) and aMAP (0.776, 0.747, and 0.790, respectively) systems than others. No patients predicted as low-risk by the aMAP or mPAGE-B systems developed HCC.

Conclusions

aMAP and mPAGE-B scores demonstrated the highest predictive performance for de novo HCC in DAA-treated, SVR-achieving patients. Hence, these two systems may be used to identify low-risk patients that can be exempted from HCC surveillance.

Comparing Predictability of Non-invasive Tools for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Treated Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

BACKGROUND

Non-invasive tools including liver stiffness measurement (LSM) or FIB-4, assessed before or after direct acting antivirals (DAA), have been suggested to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

AIMS

This study aims to compare predictability of HCC by these methods at different time points, to validate the HCC surveillance suggestion by guidelines, and to propose personalized strategy.

METHODS

Chronic hepatitis C whose LSM and FIB-4 were available at pretherapy and after sustained virological response (SVR) were enrolled. Advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) was defined as pretherapy LSM ≥ 10 kPa or FIB-4 index ≥ 3.25 or ultrasound signs of cirrhosis plus platelet count < 150,000/μL. The predictabilities were compared by area under ROC. The cumulative HCC incidences were calculated by Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

Among 466 ACLD patients, 40 patients developed HCC during a follow-up duration of 26.8 months. Comparable predictive performances for HCC between LSM and FIB-4 at pretherapy and SVR were noted. By guidelines suggestion using pretherapy LSM = 10 kPa (advanced fibrosis) and 13 kPa (cirrhosis) for risk stratification, the annual HCC incidences of those with LSM of < 10, 10-12.9 and ≥ 13 kPa were 1.1, 3.6, and 5.0%, respectively. Combination of baseline LSM < 12 kPa and SVR FIB-4 < 3.7 could further stratify relatively low risk of HCC in ACLD patients of annal incidence of 1.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

ACLD patients who met advanced fibrosis but not cirrhosis by guidelines' cut-offs still posed high risk of HCC. Baseline LSM with SVR FIB-4 can be applied to stratify low, intermediate, and high risk of HCC for personalizing surveillance strategies after SVR.

Liver Stiffness-Based Risk Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. We established and validated a liver stiffness (LS)-based risk prediction model for HCC development in patients with NAFLD. A total of 2666 and 467 patients with NAFLD were recruited in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. NAFLD was defined as controlled attenuated parameter ≥238 dB/m by transient elastography. Over a median of 64.6 months, HCC developed in 22 (0.8%) subjects in the training cohort. Subjects who developed HCC were older and had higher prevalence of diabetes and cirrhosis, lower platelet count, and higher AST levels compared to those who did not develop HCC (all p < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, age ≥60 years (hazard ratio (HR) = 9.1), platelet count <150 × 10³/μL (HR = 3.7), and LS ≥9.3 kPa (HR = 13.8) were independent predictors (all p < 0.05) that were used to develop a risk prediction model for HCC development, together with AST ≥34 IU/L. AUCs for predicting HCC development at 2, 3, and 5 years were 0.948, 0.947, and 0.939, respectively. This model was validated in the validation cohort (AUC 0.777, 0.781, and 0.784 at 2, 3, and 5 years, respectively). The new risk prediction model for NAFLD-related HCC development showed acceptable performance in the training and validation cohorts.

Impact of liver-stiffness measurement on hepatocellular carcinoma development in chronic hepatitis C patients treated with direct-acting antivirals: A systematic review and time-to-event meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are still at risk for developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) even after achieving sustained virologic response (SVR). Liver-stiffness measurement (LSM) on imaging has been investigated as a predictor of HCC occurrence.

OBJECTIVES

To provide systematic summary of the predictive value of LSM in predicting HCC occurrence in HCV patients treated with DAA.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search of the PubMed-MEDLINE and EMBASE databases was performed to identify studies that evaluated the predictive value of LSM in CHC patients treated with DAAs. Pooled hazard ratio (HR) comparing HCC occurrence between patients with positive and negative results on LSM was calculated for all studies and various subgroups. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression were performed.

RESULTS

A review of 135 candidate articles identified eight eligible articles with a total of 3398patients for qualitative review and meta-analysis. The pooled HR for HCC occurrence determined by LSM was 3.43 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.63-7.19) with heterogeneity (I²  = 81.87%, P < 0.001), thus indicating that LSM might be helpful for predicting HCC occurrence. In subgroup analyses, pooled HRs were different according to the study design (2.29; [95% CI, 0.96-5.45] for retrospective studies; 4.61 [95% CI, 2.44-8.71] for prospective studies), study population (4.00 [95% CI, 2.00-7.99] for CHC; 2.64 [0.99-7.00] for CHC with liver cirrhosis) and LSM parameter (3.17 [95% CI, 1.35-7.41] for baseline LSM; 4.19 [95% CI, 1.89-9.29] for others). In multivariate meta-regression, study design was the only influencing factor for pooled HR for HCC occurrence (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent evidence demonstrated the predictive value of LSM for HCC occurrence in CHC patients treated with DAA. The significant influencing factor for risk of HCC occurrence indicated by LSM was study design.

Point Shear-Wave Elastography Using Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse Imaging for the Prediction of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Chronic Viral Hepatitis

Chronic viral hepatitis is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide. The aim of our study was to assess the ability of point shear-wave elastography (pSWE) using acoustic radiation force impulse imaging for the prediction of the following liver-related events (LREs): new diagnosis of HCC, liver transplantation, or liver-related death (hepatic decompensation was not included as an LRE). pSWE was performed at study inclusion and compared with liver histology, transient elastography (TE), and serologic biomarkers (aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index, Fibrosis-4, FibroTest). The performance of pSWE and TE to predict LREs was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. A total of 254 patients with a median follow-up of 78 months were included in the study. LRE occurred in 28 patients (11%) during follow-up. In both patients with hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus (HCV), pSWE showed significant correlations with noninvasive tests and TE, and median pSWE and TE values were significantly different between patients with LREs and patients without LREs (both P < 0.0001). In patients with HCV, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for pSWE and TE to predict LREs were comparable: 0.859 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.747-0.969) and 0.852 (95% CI, 0.737-0.967) (P = 0.93). In Cox regression analysis, pSWE independently predicted LREs in all patients with HCV (hazard ratio, 17.9; 95% CI, 5.21-61-17; P < 0.0001) and those who later received direct-acting antiviral therapy (hazard ratio, 17.11; 95% CI, 3.88-75.55; P = 0.0002). Conclusion: Our study shows good comparability between pSWE and TE. pSWE is a promising tool for the prediction of LREs in patients with viral hepatitis, particularly those with chronic HCV. Further studies are needed to confirm our data and assess their prognostic value in other liver diseases.

A Model Based on Noninvasive Markers Predicts Very Low Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk After Viral Response in Hepatitis C Virus-Advanced Fibrosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and advanced fibrosis remain at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after sustained viral response (SVR) and need lifelong surveillance. Because HCC risk is not homogenous and may decrease with fibrosis regression, we aimed to identify patients with low HCC risk based on the prediction of noninvasive markers and its changes after SVR.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This is a multicenter cohort study, including patients with HCV and compensated advanced fibrosis that achieved SVR after direct antivirals. Clinical and transient elastography (TE) data were registered at baseline, 1 year, and 3 years after the end of treatment (EOT). All patients underwent liver ultrasound scan every 6 months. Patients with clinical evaluation 1 year after EOT were eligible. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were performed, and predictive models were constructed. HCC occurrence rates were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier. Nine hundred and ninety-three patients were eligible (56% male; 44% female; median age 62 years), 35 developed HCC (3.9%), and the median follow-up was 45 months (range 13-53). Baseline liver stiffness measurement (LSM) (HR 1.040; 95% CI 1.017-1.064), serum albumin (HR 0.400; 95% CI 0.174-0.923), 1-year DeltaLSM (HR 0.993; 95% CI 0.987-0.998), and 1-year FIB-4 score (HR 1.095; 95% CI 1.046-1.146) were independent factors associated with HCC. The TE-based HCC risk model predicted 0% of HCC occurrence at 3 years in patients with score 0 (baseline LSM ≤ 17.3 kPa, albumin >4.2 g/dL, and 1-year DeltaLSM > 25.5%) versus 5.2% in patients with score 1-3 (Harrell's C 0.779; log-rank 0.002). An alternative model with FIB-4 similarly predicted HCC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

A combination of baseline and dynamic changes in noninvasive markers may help to identify patients with a very low risk of HCC development after SVR.

Design and validation of risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma development after sustained virological response in patients with chronic hepatitis C

OBJECTIVES

Hepatocellular carcinoma can develop after hepatitis C virus eradication. We developed a new hepatocellular carcinoma risk score (HCC-SVR score) based on independent predictors for chronic hepatitis C after sustained virological response.

METHODS

Between 2003 and 2016, a total of 1193 patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved sustained virological response through antiviral therapy were included (669 for training cohort and 524 for validation cohort). The HCC-SVR score was developed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression modelling.

RESULTS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 19) occurred more frequently in older, male patients and was associated with liver cirrhosis; hypertension; diabetes; lower platelet count; higher alpha-fetoprotein, aspartate, and alanine aminotransferase; lower total cholesterol; and higher fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) (all P < 0.05). FIB-4 (hazard ratio = 1.080), male gender (hazard ratio = 8.189), and higher alpha-fetoprotein (hazard ratio = 1.060) independently predicted hepatocellular carcinoma (all P < 0.05). HCC-SVR score successfully predicted hepatocellular carcinoma development risk [area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.771, 0.857, and 0.911 at 2, 4, and 6 years, respectively]. The cumulative incidence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma differed significantly among groups stratified by HCC-SVR risk score (0-2 points, low; 3-7 points, intermediate; 8-9 points, high risk) (all P < 0.05 by log-rank test). HCC-SVR score was maintained in a validation cohort (n = 524) (AUC = 0.728 at 2 years, 0.737 at 4 years, and 0.809 at 6 years).

CONCLUSION

The HCC-SVR score enables risk stratification for hepatocellular carcinoma development at sustained virological response in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Daclatasvir Plus Asunaprevir for the Treatment of Patients with Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 1b Infection: Real-World Efficacy, Changes in Liver Stiffness and Fibrosis Markers, and Safety

Background/Aims

The treatment with daclatasvir plus asunaprevir (DCV+ASV) is associated with potent antiviral effects in patients with genotype 1b hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We investigated the real-world efficacy, changes in liver stiffness and noninvasive fibrosis markers, and the safety of DCV+ASV treatment in Korean patients.

Methods

In total, 363 patients with chronic hepatitis C were treated with DCV+ASV between August 2015 and January 2017. Finally, we analyzed the data of 270 patients who were monitored for at least 12 weeks after the end of treatment.

Results

The mean age was 60.7 years, and females predominated (60.4%). Most patients (64.8%) were treatment-naïve, and 56 patients (20.7%) had cirrhosis. Two hundred fifty-seven (95.2%) and 251 (93.0%) patients achieved end-of-treatment responses and sustained virological responses at 12 weeks posttreatment (SVR12), respectively. The SVR12 rates were higher in patients who were <65 years of age, males, without cirrhosis and had lower HCV RNA levels. All LS values and fibrosis-4 and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index values declined from baseline to the time of assessment of SVR12.

Conclusions

The DCV+ASV therapy resulted in a high SVR12 and improved liver fibrosis; the treatment was well tolerated in patients with genotype 1b HCV infections.

Chronic hepatitis C virus infection and pathogenesis of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is one of the major causes of advanced liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. While the knowledge about the molecular virology of HCV infection has markedly advanced, the molecular mechanisms of disease progression leading to fibrosis, cirrhosis and HCC are still unclear. Accumulating experimental and clinical studies indicate that HCV may drive hepatocarcinogenesis directly via its proteins or transcripts, and/or indirectly through induction of chronic liver inflammation. Despite the possibility to eradicate HCV infection through direct-acting antiviral treatment, the risk of HCC persists although specific biomarkers to estimate this risk are still missing. Thus, a better understanding of HCV-induced HCC and more physiological liver disease models are required to prevent cancer development.

Management of the patient with SVR

In the current era of therapy with direct-acting antiviral (DAAs) drugs, achievement of a sustained virological response (SVR) is achievable in ⩾90% of hepatitis C-infected patients. SVR benefits are well-recognized with reductions in rates of liver complications, hepatocellular carcinoma and mortality. Additional benefits include reduced morbidity related to extrahepatic and systemic manifestations of hepatitis C such as renal, dermatologic, and metabolic complications. However, not all patients will derive all of these benefits and monitoring for progression is necessary, especially in those with more advanced fibrosis. To maximize the health benefits of SVR, counseling patients on best means to maintain good liver health and prevent reinfection are also important.