Using demographic data to understand the distribution of H1N1 and COVID-19 pandemics cases among federal entities and municipalities of Mexico

Effects of social confinement during the first wave of COVID-19 in Mexico City

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic led to global social confinement that had a significant impact on people's lives. This includes changes such as increased loneliness and isolation, changes in sleep patterns and social habits, increased substance use and domestic violence, and decreased physical activities. In some cases, it has increased mental health problems, such as anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder.

Objective

The objective of this study is to analyze the living conditions that arose during social confinement in the first wave of COVID-19 within a group of volunteers in Mexico City.

Methods

This is a descriptive and cross-sectional analysis of the experiences of volunteers during social confinement from 20 March 2020 to 20 December 2020. The study analyzes the impact of confinement on family life, work, mental health, physical activity, social life, and domestic violence. A maximum likelihood generalized linear model is used to determine the association between domestic violence and demographic and health-related factors.

Results

The findings indicate that social confinement had a significant impact on the participants, resulting in difficulties within families and vulnerable conditions for individuals. Gender and social level differences were observed in work and mental health. Physical activity and social life were also modified. We found that suffering from domestic violence was significantly associated with being unmarried (OR = 1.4454, p-value = 0.0479), lack of self-care in feeding habits (OR = 2.3159, p-value = 0.0084), and most notably, having suffered from a symptomatic COVID-19 infection (OR = 4.0099, p-value = 0.0009). Despite public policy to support vulnerable populations during confinement, only a small proportion of the studied population reported benefiting from it, suggesting areas for improvement in policy.

Conclusion

The findings of this study suggest that social confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the living conditions of people in Mexico City. Modified circumstances on families and individuals, included increased domestic violence. The results can inform policy decisions to improve the living conditions of vulnerable populations during times of social confinement.

The Geographical Distribution and Influencing Factors of COVID-19 in China

The study of the spatial differentiation of COVID-19 in cities and its driving mechanism is helpful to reveal the spatial distribution pattern, transmission mechanism and diffusion model, and evolution mechanism of the epidemic and can lay the foundation for constructing the spatial dynamics model of the epidemic and provide theoretical basis for the policy design, spatial planning and implementation of epidemic prevention and control and social governance. Geodetector (Origin version, Beijing, China) is a great tool for analysis of spatial differentiation and its influencing factors, and it provides decision support for differentiated policy design and its implementation in executing the city-specific policies. Using factor detection and interaction analysis of Geodetector, 15 indicators of economic, social, ecological, and environmental dimensions were integrated, and 143 cities were selected for the empirical research in China. The research shows that, first of all, risks of both infection and death show positive spatial autocorrelation, but the geographical distribution of local spatial autocorrelation differs significantly between the two. Secondly, the inequalities in urban economic, social, and residential environments interact with COVID-19 spatial heterogeneity, with stronger explanatory power especially when multidimensional inequalities are superimposed. Thirdly, the spatial distribution and spread of COVID-19 are highly spatially heterogeneous and correlated due to the complex influence of multiple factors, with factors such as Area of Urban Construction Land, GDP, Industrial Smoke and Dust Emission, and Expenditure having the strongest influence, the factors such as Area of Green, Number of Hospital Beds and Parks, and Industrial NOx Emissions having unignorable influence, while the factors such as Number of Free Parks and Industrial Enterprises, Per-GDP, and Population Density play an indirect role mainly by means of interaction. Fourthly, the factor interaction effect from the infected person’s perspective mainly shows a nonlinear enhancement effect, that is, the joint influence of the two factors is greater than the sum of their direct influences; but from the perspective of the dead, it mainly shows a two-factor enhancement effect, that is, the joint influence of the two factors is greater than the maximum of their direct influences but less than their sum. Fifthly, some suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of building a healthy, resilient, safe, and smart city, providing valuable reference and decision basis for city governments to carry out differentiated policy design.

Characterizing all-cause excess mortality patterns during COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico

BACKGROUND

Low testing rates and delays in reporting hinder the estimation of the mortality burden associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. During a public health emergency, estimating all cause excess deaths above an expected level of death can provide a more reliable picture of the mortality burden. Here, we aim to estimate the absolute and relative mortality impact of COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico.

METHODS

We obtained weekly mortality time series due to all causes for Mexico, and by gender, and geographic region from 2015 to 2020. We also compiled surveillance data on COVID-19 cases and deaths to assess the timing and intensity of the pandemic and assembled weekly series of the proportion of tweets about 'death' from Mexico to assess the correlation between people's media interaction about 'death' and the rise in pandemic deaths. We estimated all-cause excess mortality rates and mortality rate ratio increase over baseline by fitting Serfling regression models and forecasted the total excess deaths for Mexico for the first 4 weeks of 2021 using the generalized logistic growth model.

RESULTS

We estimated the all-cause excess mortality rate associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico in 2020 at 26.10 per 10,000 population, which corresponds to 333,538 excess deaths. Males had about 2-fold higher excess mortality rate (33.99) compared to females (18.53). Mexico City reported the highest excess death rate (63.54) and RR (2.09) compared to rest of the country (excess rate = 23.25, RR = 1.62). While COVID-19 deaths accounted for only 38.64% of total excess deaths in Mexico, our forecast estimate that Mexico has accumulated a total of ~ 61,610 [95% PI: 60,003, 63,216] excess deaths in the first 4 weeks of 2021. Proportion of tweets was significantly correlated with the excess mortality (ρ = 0.508 [95% CI: 0.245, 0.701], p-value = 0.0004).

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic has heavily affected Mexico. The lab-confirmed COVID-19 deaths accounted for only 38.64% of total all cause excess deaths (333,538) in Mexico in 2020. This reflects either the effect of low testing rates in Mexico, or the surge in number of deaths due to other causes during the pandemic. A model-based forecast indicates that an average of 61,610 excess deaths have occurred in January 2021.