Impact of Allocation Concealment and Blinding in Trials Addressing Treatments for COVID-19: A Methods Study

We aimed to assess the impact of allocation concealment and blinding on the results of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) trials, using the World Health Organization COVID-19 database (to February 2022). We identified 488 randomized trials comparing drug therapeutics with placebo or standard care in patients with COVID-19. We performed random-effects meta-regressions comparing the results of trials with and without allocation concealment and blinding of health-care providers and patients. We found that, compared with trials with allocation concealment, trials without allocation concealment may estimate treatments to be more beneficial for mortality, mechanical ventilation, hospital admission, duration of hospitalization, and duration of mechanical ventilation, but results were imprecise. We did not find compelling evidence that, compared with trials with blinding, trials without blinding produce consistently different results for mortality, mechanical ventilation, and duration of hospitalization. We found that trials without blinding may estimate treatments to be more beneficial for hospitalizations and duration of mechanical ventilation. We did not find compelling evidence that COVID-19 trials in which health-care providers and patients are blinded produce different results from trials without blinding, but trials without allocation concealment estimate treatments to be more beneficial compared with trials with allocation concealment. Our study suggests that lack of blinding may not always bias results but that evidence users should remain skeptical of trials without allocation concealment.

An extension MID credibility item addressing construct proximity is a reliable alternative to correlation item

OBJECTIVE

To extend the anchor-based minimal important differences (MIDs) credibility instrument by adding an item addressing construct proximity as the alternative to the correlation item.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

The credibility instrument includes one core items addressing the correlation between the patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) and the anchor. However, the majority of MID studies in the literature fail to report the correlation. As an alternative item, we added a subjective assessment of similarity of the constructs (i.e., construct proximity) between the PROM and anchor and generated principles for the assessment. We sampled 101 MIDs and analyzed the assessments performed by each pair of raters. By calculating weighted Cohen's kappa, we assessed the reliability of the assessments.

RESULTS

Construct proximity assessment is based on the anticipated association between the anchor and PROM constructs: the closer the anticipated association, the higher the rating. Our detailed principles address the most frequently used anchors: transition ratings, measures of satisfaction, other PROMs, and clinical measures. The assessments showed acceptable agreement (weighted kappa 0.74, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.94) between raters.

CONCLUSION

In the absence of a reported correlation coefficient, construct proximity assessment provides a useful alternative in the credibility assessment of anchor-based MID estimates.

Consistency of covid-19 trial preprints with published reports and impact for decision making: retrospective review

Objective

To assess the trustworthiness (ie, complete and consistent reporting of key methods and results between preprint and published trial reports) and impact (ie, effects of preprints on meta-analytic estimates and the certainty of evidence) of preprint trial reports during the covid-19 pandemic.

Design

Retrospective review.

Data sources

World Health Organization covid-19 database and the Living Overview of the Evidence (L-OVE) covid-19 platform by the Epistemonikos Foundation (up to 3 August 2021).

Main outcome measures

Comparison of characteristics of covid-19 trials with and without preprints, estimates of time to publication of covid-19 preprints, and description of differences in reporting of key methods and results between preprints and their later publications. For the effects of eight treatments on mortality and mechanical ventilation, the study comprised meta-analyses including preprints and excluding preprints at one, three, and six months after the first trial addressing the treatment became available either as a preprint or publication (120 meta-analyses in total, 60 of which included preprints and 60 of which excluded preprints) and assessed the certainty of evidence using the GRADE framework.

Results

Of 356 trials included in the study, 101 were only available as preprints, 181 as journal publications, and 74 as preprints first and subsequently published in journals. The median time to publication of preprints was about six months. Key methods and results showed few important differences between trial preprints and their subsequent published reports. Apart from two (3.3%) of 60 comparisons, point estimates were consistent between meta-analyses including preprints versus those excluding preprints as to whether they indicated benefit, no appreciable effect, or harm. For nine (15%) of 60 comparisons, the rating of the certainty of evidence was different when preprints were included versus being excluded-the certainty of evidence including preprints was higher in four comparisons and lower in five comparisons.

Conclusion

No compelling evidence indicates that preprints provide results that are inconsistent with published papers. Preprints remain the only source of findings of many trials for several months-an unsuitable length of time in a health emergency that is not conducive to treating patients with timely evidence. The inclusion of preprints could affect the results of meta-analyses and the certainty of evidence. Evidence users should be encouraged to consider data from preprints.

Serious reporting deficiencies exist in minimal important difference studies: Current state and suggestions for improvement

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate reporting of minimal important difference (MID) estimates using anchor-based methods for patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), and the association with reporting deficiencies on their credibility.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Systematic survey of primary studies empirically estimating MIDs. We searched Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and the Patient-Reported Outcome and Quality of Life Instruments Database until October 2018. We evaluated study reporting, focusing on participants' demographics, intervention(s), characteristics of PROMs and anchors, and MID estimation method(s). We assessed the impact of reporting issues on credibility of MID estimates.

RESULTS

In 585 studies reporting on 5,324 MID estimates for 526 distinct PROMs, authors frequently failed to adequately report key characteristics of PROMs and MIDs, including minimum and maximum values of PROM scale, measure of variability accompanying the MID estimate and number of participants included in the MID calculation. Across MID estimates (n=5,324), the most serious reporting issues impacting credibility included infrequent reporting of the correlation between the anchor and PROM (66%), inadequate details to judge precision of MID point estimate (13%), and insufficient information about the threshold used to ascertain MIDs (16%).

CONCLUSION

Serious issues of incomplete reporting in the MID literature threaten the optimal use of MID estimates to inform the magnitude of effects of interventions on PROMs.

Adverse effects of remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir when used for COVID-19: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised trials

BACKGROUND

To summarise specific adverse effects of remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir in patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

We searched 32 databases through 27 October 2020. We included randomised trials comparing any of the drugs of interest to placebo or standard care, or against each other. We conducted fixed-effects pairwise meta-analysis and assessed the certainty of evidence using the grading of recommendations assessment, development and evaluation approach.

RESULTS

We included 16 randomised trials which enrolled 8152 patients. For most interventions and outcomes the certainty of the evidence was very low to low except for gastrointestinal adverse effects from hydroxychloroquine, which was moderate certainty. Compared with standard care or placebo, low certainty evidence suggests that remdesivir may not have an important effect on acute kidney injury (risk difference (RD) 8 fewer per 1000, 95% CI 27 fewer to 21 more) or cognitive dysfunction/delirium (RD 3 more per 1000, 95% CI 12 fewer to 19 more). Low certainty evidence suggests that hydroxychloroquine may increase the risk of cardiac toxicity (RD 10 more per 1000, 95% CI 0 more to 30 more) and cognitive dysfunction/delirium (RD 33 more per 1000, 95% CI 18 fewer to 84 more), whereas moderate certainty evidence suggests hydroxychloroquine probably increases the risk of diarrhoea (RD 106 more per 1000, 95% CI 48 more to 175 more) and nausea and/or vomiting (RD 62 more per 1000, 95% CI 23 more to 110 more) compared with standard care or placebo. Low certainty evidence suggests lopinavir/ritonavir may increase the risk of diarrhoea (RD 168 more per 1000, 95% CI 58 more to 330 more) and nausea and/or vomiting (RD 160 more per 1000, 95% CI 100 more to 210 more) compared with standard care or placebo.

DISCUSSION

Hydroxychloroquine probably increases the risk of diarrhoea and nausea and/or vomiting and may increase the risk of cardiac toxicity and cognitive dysfunction/delirium. Lopinavir/ritonavir may increase the risk of diarrhoea and nausea and/or vomiting. Remdesivir may have no important effect on risk of acute kidney injury or cognitive dysfunction/delirium. These findings provide important information to support the development of evidence-based management strategies for patients with COVID-19.

Adverse effects of remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir when used for COVID-19: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised trials

BACKGROUND

To summarise specific adverse effects of remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir in patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

We searched 32 databases through 27 October 2020. We included randomised trials comparing any of the drugs of interest to placebo or standard care, or against each other. We conducted fixed-effects pairwise meta-analysis and assessed the certainty of evidence using the grading of recommendations assessment, development and evaluation approach.

RESULTS

We included 16 randomised trials which enrolled 8152 patients. For most interventions and outcomes the certainty of the evidence was very low to low except for gastrointestinal adverse effects from hydroxychloroquine, which was moderate certainty. Compared with standard care or placebo, low certainty evidence suggests that remdesivir may not have an important effect on acute kidney injury (risk difference (RD) 8 fewer per 1000, 95% CI 27 fewer to 21 more) or cognitive dysfunction/delirium (RD 3 more per 1000, 95% CI 12 fewer to 19 more). Low certainty evidence suggests that hydroxychloroquine may increase the risk of cardiac toxicity (RD 10 more per 1000, 95% CI 0 more to 30 more) and cognitive dysfunction/delirium (RD 33 more per 1000, 95% CI 18 fewer to 84 more), whereas moderate certainty evidence suggests hydroxychloroquine probably increases the risk of diarrhoea (RD 106 more per 1000, 95% CI 48 more to 175 more) and nausea and/or vomiting (RD 62 more per 1000, 95% CI 23 more to 110 more) compared with standard care or placebo. Low certainty evidence suggests lopinavir/ritonavir may increase the risk of diarrhoea (RD 168 more per 1000, 95% CI 58 more to 330 more) and nausea and/or vomiting (RD 160 more per 1000, 95% CI 100 more to 210 more) compared with standard care or placebo.

DISCUSSION

Hydroxychloroquine probably increases the risk of diarrhoea and nausea and/or vomiting and may increase the risk of cardiac toxicity and cognitive dysfunction/delirium. Lopinavir/ritonavir may increase the risk of diarrhoea and nausea and/or vomiting. Remdesivir may have no important effect on risk of acute kidney injury or cognitive dysfunction/delirium. These findings provide important information to support the development of evidence-based management strategies for patients with COVID-19.

Use of tocilizumab and sarilumab alone or in combination with corticosteroids for covid-19: systematic review and network meta-analysis

Objective

To compare the effects of interleukin 6 receptor blockers, tocilizumab and sarilumab, with or without corticosteroids, on mortality in patients with covid-19.

Design

Systematic review and network meta-analysis.

Data sources

World Health Organization covid-19 database, a comprehensive multilingual source of global covid-19 literature, and two prospective meta-analyses (up to 9 June 2021).

Review methods

Trials in which people with suspected, probable, or confirmed covid-19 were randomised to interleukin 6 receptor blockers (with or without corticosteroids), corticosteroids, placebo, or standard care. The analysis used a bayesian framework and assessed the certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach. Results from the fixed effect meta-analysis were used for the primary analysis.

Results

Of 45 eligible trials (20 650 patients) identified, 36 (19 350 patients) could be included in the network meta-analysis. Of 36 trials, 27 were at high risk of bias, primarily due to lack of blinding. Tocilizumab, in combination with corticosteroids, suggested a reduction in the risk of death compared with corticosteroids alone (odds ratio 0.79, 95% credible interval 0.70 to 0.88; 35 fewer deaths per 1000 people, 95% credible interval 52 fewer to 18 fewer per 1000; moderate certainty of evidence), as did sarilumab in combination with corticosteroids, compared with corticosteroids alone (0.73, 0.58 to 0.92; 43 fewer per 1000, 73 fewer to 12 fewer; low certainty). Tocilizumab and sarilumab, each in combination with corticosteroids, appeared to have similar effects on mortality when compared with each other (1.07, 0.86 to 1.34; eight more per 1000, 20 fewer to 35 more; low certainty). The effects of tocilizumab (1.12, 0.91 to 1.38; 20 more per 1000, 16 fewer to 59 more; low certainty) and sarilumab (1.07, 0.81 to 1.40; 11 more per 1000, 38 fewer to 55 more; low certainty), when used alone, suggested an increase in the risk of death.

Conclusion

These findings suggest that in patients with severe or critical covid-19, tocilizumab, in combination with corticosteroids, probably reduces mortality, and that sarilumab, in combination with corticosteroids, might also reduce mortality. Tocilizumab and sarilumab, in combination with corticosteroids, could have similar effectiveness. Tocilizumab and sarilumab, when used alone, might not be beneficial.

A systematic survey identified methodological issues in studies estimating anchor-based minimal important differences in patient-reported outcomes

OBJECTIVE

To systematically survey the literature addressing the reporting of studies estimating anchor-based minimal important differences (MIDs) and choice of optimal MIDs.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We searched Medline, Embase and PsycINFO from 1987 to March 2020. Teams of two reviewers independently identified eligible publications and extracted quotations addressing relevant issues for reporting and/or selecting anchor-based MIDs. Using a coding list, we assigned the same code to quotations capturing similar or related issues. For each code, we generated an 'item', i.e. a specific phrase or sentence capturing the underlying concept. When multiple concepts existed under a single code, the team created multiple items for that code. We clustered codes addressing a broader methodological issue into a 'category' and classified items as relevant for reporting, relevant for selecting an anchor-based MID, or both.

RESULTS

We identified 136 eligible publications that provided 6 categories (MID definition, anchors, patient-reported outcome measures, generalizability and statistics) and 24 codes. These codes contained 34 items related to reporting MID studies, of which 29 were also related to selecting MIDs.

CONCLUSION

The systematic survey identified items related to reporting of anchor-based MID studies and selecting optimal MIDs. These provide a conceptual framework to inform the design of studies related to MIDs, and a basis for developing a reporting standard and a selection approach for MIDs.

Antibody and cellular therapies for treatment of covid-19: a living systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of antiviral antibody therapies and blood products for the treatment of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19).

DESIGN

Living systematic review and network meta-analysis, with pairwise meta-analysis for outcomes with insufficient data.

DATA SOURCES

WHO covid-19 database, a comprehensive multilingual source of global covid-19 literature, and six Chinese databases (up to 21 July 2021).

STUDY SELECTION

Trials randomising people with suspected, probable, or confirmed covid-19 to antiviral antibody therapies, blood products, or standard care or placebo. Paired reviewers determined eligibility of trials independently and in duplicate.

METHODS

After duplicate data abstraction, we performed random effects bayesian meta-analysis, including network meta-analysis for outcomes with sufficient data. We assessed risk of bias using a modification of the Cochrane risk of bias 2.0 tool. The certainty of the evidence was assessed using the grading of recommendations assessment, development, and evaluation (GRADE) approach. We meta-analysed interventions with ≥100 patients randomised or ≥20 events per treatment arm.

RESULTS

As of 21 July 2021, we identified 47 trials evaluating convalescent plasma (21 trials), intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) (5 trials), umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cells (5 trials), bamlanivimab (4 trials), casirivimab-imdevimab (4 trials), bamlanivimab-etesevimab (2 trials), control plasma (2 trials), peripheral blood non-haematopoietic enriched stem cells (2 trials), sotrovimab (1 trial), anti-SARS-CoV-2 IVIg (1 trial), therapeutic plasma exchange (1 trial), XAV-19 polyclonal antibody (1 trial), CT-P59 monoclonal antibody (1 trial) and INM005 polyclonal antibody (1 trial) for the treatment of covid-19. Patients with non-severe disease randomised to antiviral monoclonal antibodies had lower risk of hospitalisation than those who received placebo: casirivimab-imdevimab (odds ratio (OR) 0.29 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.47); risk difference (RD) -4.2%; moderate certainty), bamlanivimab (OR 0.24 (0.06 to 0.86); RD -4.1%; low certainty), bamlanivimab-etesevimab (OR 0.31 (0.11 to 0.81); RD -3.8%; low certainty), and sotrovimab (OR 0.17 (0.04 to 0.57); RD -4.8%; low certainty). They did not have an important impact on any other outcome. There was no notable difference between monoclonal antibodies. No other intervention had any meaningful effect on any outcome in patients with non-severe covid-19. No intervention, including antiviral antibodies, had an important impact on any outcome in patients with severe or critical covid-19, except casirivimab-imdevimab, which may reduce mortality in patients who are seronegative.

CONCLUSION

In patients with non-severe covid-19, casirivimab-imdevimab probably reduces hospitalisation; bamlanivimab-etesevimab, bamlanivimab, and sotrovimab may reduce hospitalisation. Convalescent plasma, IVIg, and other antibody and cellular interventions may not confer any meaningful benefit.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

This review was not registered. The protocol established a priori is included as a data supplement.

FUNDING

This study was supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (grant CIHR- IRSC:0579001321).

READERS' NOTE

This article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Interim updates and additional study data will be posted on our website (www.covid19lnma.com).

Quality of information in news media reports about the effects of health interventions: Systematic review and meta-analyses

Background Many studies have assessed the quality of news reports about the effects of health interventions, but there has been no systematic review of such studies or meta-analysis of their results. We aimed to fill this gap (PROSPERO ID: CRD42018095032). Methods We included studies that used at least one explicit, prespecified and generic criterion to assess the quality of news reports in print, broadcast, or online news media, and specified the sampling frame, and the selection criteria and technique. We assessed criteria individually for inclusion in the meta-analyses, excluding ineligible criteria and criteria with inadequately reported results. We mapped and grouped criteria to facilitate evidence synthesis. Where possible, we extracted the proportion of news reports meeting the included criterion. We performed meta-analyses using a random effects model to estimate such proportions for individual criteria and some criteria groups, and to characterise heterogeneity across studies.  Results We included 44 primary studies in the review, and 18 studies and 108 quality criteria in the meta-analyses. Many news reports gave an unbalanced and oversimplified picture of the potential consequences of interventions. A limited number mention or adequately address conflicts of interest (22%; 95% CI 7%-49%) (low certainty), alternative interventions (36%; 95% CI 26%-47%) (moderate certainty), potential harms (40%; 95% CI 23%-61%) (low certainty), or costs (18%; 95% CI 12%-28%) (moderate certainty), or quantify effects (53%; 95% CI 36%-69%) (low certainty) or report absolute effects (17%; 95% CI 4%-49%) (low certainty).  Discussion There is room for improving health news, but it is logically more important to improve the public's ability to critically appraise health information and make judgements for themselves.

Quality of information in news media reports about the effects of health interventions: Systematic review and meta-analyses

Background Many studies have assessed the quality of news reports about the effects of health interventions, but there has been no systematic review of such studies or meta-analysis of their results. We aimed to fill this gap (PROSPERO ID: CRD42018095032). Methods We included studies that used at least one explicit, prespecified and generic criterion to assess the quality of news reports in print, broadcast, or online news media, and specified the sampling frame, and the selection criteria and technique. We assessed criteria individually for inclusion in the meta-analyses, excluding inappropriate criteria and criteria with inadequately reported results. We mapped and grouped criteria to facilitate evidence synthesis. Where possible, we extracted the proportion of news reports meeting the included criterion. We performed meta-analyses using a random effects model to estimate such proportions for individual criteria and some criteria groups, and to characterise heterogeneity across studies.  Results We included 44 primary studies in the qualitative summary, and 18 studies and 108 quality criteria in the meta-analyses. Many news reports gave an unbalanced and oversimplified picture of the potential consequences of interventions. A limited number mention or adequately address conflicts of interest (22%; 95% CI 7%-49%) (low certainty), alternative interventions (36%; 95% CI 26%-47%) (moderate certainty), potential harms (40%; 95% CI 23%-61%) (low certainty), or costs (18%; 95% CI 12%-28%) (moderate certainty), or quantify effects (53%; 95% CI 36%-69%) (low certainty) or report absolute effects (17%; 95% CI 4%-49%) (low certainty).  Discussion There is room for improving health news, but it is logically more important to improve the public's ability to critically appraise health information and make judgements for themselves.

Efficacy and Safety of Pharmacologic Interventions in Patients Experiencing a Gout Flare: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To compare the relative efficacy and safety of pharmacologic antiinflammatory interventions for gout flares.

METHODS

We searched Ovid Medline, Embase, and Cochrane library for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared pharmacologic antiinflammatory treatment of gout flares. We conducted a network meta-analysis (NMA) using a frequentist framework and assessed the certainty of evidence and made conclusions using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation for NMA.

RESULTS

In the 30 eligible RCTs, canakinumab provided the highest pain reduction at day 2 and at longest follow-up (mean difference relative to acetic acid derivative nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs [NSAIDs] -41.12 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) -53.36, -29.11] on a 0-100 scale at day 2, and mean difference -12.84 [95% CI -20.76, -4.91] at longest follow-up; both moderate certainty; minimum important difference -19). Intravenous or intramuscular corticosteroids were inferior to canakinumab but may be better than the other commonly used interventions (low to very low certainty). For joint tenderness, canakinumab may be the most effective intervention at day 2. Acetic acid derivative NSAIDs improved joint swelling better than ibuprofen NSAIDs at day 2 (mean difference -0.29 [95% CI -0.56, -0.02] on a 0-4 scale; moderate certainty) and improved patient global assessment (PtGA) greater than ibuprofen NSAIDs at the longest follow-up (mean difference -0.44 [95% CI -0.86, -0.02]; moderate).

CONCLUSION

Canakinumab may be superior to other alternatives and intravenous or intramuscular corticosteroids may be the second best in pain reduction. Acetic acid derivative NSAIDs may be superior to ibuprofen NSAIDs in improving joint swelling and PtGA.

Prophylaxis against covid-19: living systematic review and network meta-analysis

UPDATES

This is the second version (first update) of the living systematic review, replacing the previous version (available as a data supplement). When citing this paper please consider adding the version number and date of access for clarity.

OBJECTIVE

To determine and compare the effects of drug prophylaxis on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19).

DESIGN

Living systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA).

DATA SOURCES

World Health Organization covid-19 database, a comprehensive multilingual source of global covid-19 literature to 4 March 2022.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomised trials in which people at risk of covid-19 were allocated to prophylaxis or no prophylaxis (standard care or placebo). Pairs of reviewers independently screened potentially eligible articles.

METHODS

After duplicate data abstraction, we conducted random-effects bayesian network meta-analysis. We assessed risk of bias of the included studies using a modification of the Cochrane risk of bias 2.0 tool and assessed the certainty of the evidence using the grading of recommendations assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) approach.

RESULTS

The second iteration of this living NMA includes 32 randomised trials which enrolled 25 147 participants and addressed 21 different prophylactic drugs; adding 21 trials (66%), 18 162 participants (75%) and 16 (76%) prophylactic drugs. Of the 16 prophylactic drugs analysed, none provided convincing evidence of a reduction in the risk of laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. For admission to hospital and mortality outcomes, no prophylactic drug proved different than standard care or placebo. Hydroxychloroquine and vitamin C combined with zinc probably increase the risk of adverse effects leading to drug discontinuation—risk difference for hydroxychloroquine (RD) 6 more per 1000 (95% credible interval (CrI) 2 more to 10 more); for vitamin C combined with zinc, RD 69 more per 1000 (47 more to 90 more), moderate certainty evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Much of the evidence remains very low certainty and we therefore anticipate future studies evaluating drugs for prophylaxis may change the results for SARS-CoV-2 infection, admission to hospital and mortality outcomes. Both hydroxychloroquine and vitamin C combined with zinc probably increase adverse effects.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

This review was not registered. The protocol established a priori is included as a supplement.

FUNDING

This study was supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (grant CIHR-IRSC:0579001321).

A living WHO guideline on drugs to prevent covid-19

CLINICAL QUESTION

What is the role of drugs in preventing covid-19? WHY DOES THIS MATTER?: There is widespread interest in whether drug interventions can be used for the prevention of covid-19, but there is uncertainty about which drugs, if any, are effective. The first version of this living guideline focuses on the evidence for hydroxychloroquine. Subsequent updates will cover other drugs being investigated for their role in the prevention of covid-19.

RECOMMENDATION

The guideline development panel made a strong recommendation against the use of hydroxychloroquine for individuals who do not have covid-19 (high certainty).

HOW THIS GUIDELINE WAS CREATED

This living guideline is from the World Health Organization (WHO) and provides up to date covid-19 guidance to inform policy and practice worldwide. Magic Evidence Ecosystem Foundation (MAGIC) provided methodological support. A living systematic review with network analysis informed the recommendations. An international guideline development panel of content experts, clinicians, patients, an ethicist and methodologists produced recommendations following standards for trustworthy guideline development using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach.

UNDERSTANDING THE NEW RECOMMENDATION

The linked systematic review and network meta-analysis (6 trials and 6059 participants) found that hydroxychloroquine had a small or no effect on mortality and admission to hospital (high certainty evidence). There was a small or no effect on laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (moderate certainty evidence) but probably increased adverse events leading to discontinuation (moderate certainty evidence). The panel judged that almost all people would not consider this drug worthwhile. In addition, the panel decided that contextual factors such as resources, feasibility, acceptability, and equity for countries and healthcare systems were unlikely to alter the recommendation. The panel considers that this drug is no longer a research priority and that resources should rather be oriented to evaluate other more promising drugs to prevent covid-19.

UPDATES

This is a living guideline. New recommendations will be published in this article and signposted by update notices to this guideline.

READERS NOTE

This is the first version of the living guideline for drugs to prevent covid-19. It complements the WHO living guideline on drugs to treat covid-19. When citing this article, please consider adding the update number and date of access for clarity.

Ethnicity influences the gut microbiota of individuals sharing a geographical location: a cross-sectional study from a middle-income country

No studies have investigated the influence of ethnicity in a multi-ethnic middle-income country with a long-standing history of co-habitation. Stool samples from 214 Malaysian community members (46 Malay, 65 Chinese, 49 Indian, and 54 Jakun) were collected. The gut microbiota of the participants was investigated using 16S amplicon sequencing. Ethnicity exhibited the largest effect size across participants (PERMANOVA Pseudo-F = 4.24, R² = 0.06, p = 0.001). Notably, the influence of ethnicity on the gut microbiota was retained even after controlling for all demographic, dietary factors and other covariates which were significantly associated with the gut microbiome (PERMANOVA Pseudo-F = 1.67, R² = 0.02, p = 0.002). Our result suggested that lifestyle, dietary, and uncharacterized differences collectively drive the gut microbiota variation across ethnicity, making ethnicity a reliable proxy for both identified and unidentified lifestyle and dietary variation across ethnic groups from the same community.

Drug treatments for covid-19: living systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effects of treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19).

DESIGN

Living systematic review and network meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

WHO covid-19 database, a comprehensive multilingual source of global covid-19 literature, up to 3 December 2021 and six additional Chinese databases up to 20 February 2021. Studies identified as of 1 December 2021 were included in the analysis.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomised clinical trials in which people with suspected, probable, or confirmed covid-19 were randomised to drug treatment or to standard care or placebo. Pairs of reviewers independently screened potentially eligible articles.

METHODS

After duplicate data abstraction, a bayesian network meta-analysis was conducted. Risk of bias of the included studies was assessed using a modification of the Cochrane risk of bias 2.0 tool, and the certainty of the evidence using the grading of recommendations assessment, development, and evaluation (GRADE) approach. For each outcome, interventions were classified in groups from the most to the least beneficial or harmful following GRADE guidance.

RESULTS

463 trials enrolling 166 581 patients were included; 267 (57.7%) trials and 89 814 (53.9%) patients are new from the previous iteration; 265 (57.2%) trials evaluating treatments with at least 100 patients or 20 events met the threshold for inclusion in the analyses. Compared with standard care, three drugs reduced mortality in patients with mostly severe disease with at least moderate certainty: systemic corticosteroids (risk difference 23 fewer per 1000 patients, 95% credible interval 40 fewer to 7 fewer, moderate certainty), interleukin-6 receptor antagonists when given with corticosteroids (23 fewer per 1000, 36 fewer to 7 fewer, moderate certainty), and Janus kinase inhibitors (44 fewer per 1000, 64 fewer to 20 fewer, high certainty). Compared with standard care, two drugs probably reduce hospital admission in patients with non-severe disease: nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (36 fewer per 1000, 41 fewer to 26 fewer, moderate certainty) and molnupiravir (19 fewer per 1000, 29 fewer to 5 fewer, moderate certainty). Remdesivir may reduce hospital admission (29 fewer per 1000, 40 fewer to 6 fewer, low certainty). Only molnupiravir had at least moderate quality evidence of a reduction in time to symptom resolution (3.3 days fewer, 4.8 fewer to 1.6 fewer, moderate certainty); several others showed a possible benefit. Several drugs may increase the risk of adverse effects leading to drug discontinuation; hydroxychloroquine probably increases the risk of mechanical ventilation (moderate certainty).

CONCLUSION

Corticosteroids, interleukin-6 receptor antagonists, and Janus kinase inhibitors probably reduce mortality and confer other important benefits in patients with severe covid-19. Molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir probably reduce admission to hospital in patients with non-severe covid-19.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

This review was not registered. The protocol is publicly available in the supplementary material.

READERS' NOTE

This article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication. This is the fifth version of the original article published on 30 July 2020 (BMJ 2020;370:m2980), and previous versions can be found as data supplements. When citing this paper please consider adding the version number and date of access for clarity.

Evaluating the credibility of anchor based estimates of minimal important differences for patient reported outcomes: instrument development and reliability study

OBJECTIVE

To develop an instrument to evaluate the credibility of anchor based minimal important differences (MIDs) for outcome measures reported by patients, and to assess the reliability of the instrument.

DESIGN

Instrument development and reliability study.

DATA SOURCES

Initial criteria were developed for evaluating the credibility of anchor based MIDs based on a literature review (Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and PsycInfo databases) and the experience of the authors in the methodology for estimation of MIDs. Iterative discussions by the team and pilot testing with experts and potential users facilitated the development of the final instrument.

PARTICIPANTS

With the newly developed instrument, pairs of masters, doctoral, or postdoctoral students with a background in health research methodology independently evaluated the credibility of a sample of MID estimates.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Core credibility criteria applicable to all anchor types, additional criteria for transition rating anchors, and inter-rater reliability coefficients were determined.

RESULTS

The credibility instrument has five core criteria: the anchor is rated by the patient; the anchor is interpretable and relevant to the patient; the MID estimate is precise; the correlation between the anchor and the outcome measure reported by the patient is satisfactory; and the authors select a threshold on the anchor that reflects a small but important difference. The additional criteria for transition rating anchors are: the time elapsed between baseline and follow-up measurement for estimation of the MID is optimal; and the correlations of the transition rating with the baseline, follow-up, and change score in the patient reported outcome measures are satisfactory. Inter-rater reliability coefficients (ĸ) for the core criteria and for one item from the additional criteria ranged from 0.70 to 0.94. Reporting issues prevented the evaluation of the reliability of the three other additional criteria for the transition rating anchors.

CONCLUSIONS

Researchers, clinicians, and healthcare policy decision makers can consider using this instrument to evaluate the design, conduct, and analysis of studies estimating anchor based minimal important differences.

2020 American College of Rheumatology Guideline for the Management of Gout

OBJECTIVE

To provide guidance for the management of gout, including indications for and optimal use of urate-lowering therapy (ULT), treatment of gout flares, and lifestyle and other medication recommendations.

METHODS

Fifty-seven population, intervention, comparator, and outcomes questions were developed, followed by a systematic literature review, including network meta-analyses with ratings of the available evidence according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology, and patient input. A group consensus process was used to compose the final recommendations and grade their strength as strong or conditional.

RESULTS

Forty-two recommendations (including 16 strong recommendations) were generated. Strong recommendations included initiation of ULT for all patients with tophaceous gout, radiographic damage due to gout, or frequent gout flares; allopurinol as the preferred first-line ULT, including for those with moderate-to-severe chronic kidney disease (CKD; stage >3); using a low starting dose of allopurinol (≤100 mg/day, and lower in CKD) or febuxostat (<40 mg/day); and a treat-to-target management strategy with ULT dose titration guided by serial serum urate (SU) measurements, with an SU target of <6 mg/dl. When initiating ULT, concomitant antiinflammatory prophylaxis therapy for a duration of at least 3-6 months was strongly recommended. For management of gout flares, colchicine, nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs, or glucocorticoids (oral, intraarticular, or intramuscular) were strongly recommended.

CONCLUSION

Using GRADE methodology and informed by a consensus process based on evidence from the current literature and patient preferences, this guideline provides direction for clinicians and patients making decisions on the management of gout.

2020 American College of Rheumatology Guideline for the Management of Gout

OBJECTIVE

To provide guidance for the management of gout, including indications for and optimal use of urate-lowering therapy (ULT), treatment of gout flares, and lifestyle and other medication recommendations.

METHODS

Fifty-seven population, intervention, comparator, and outcomes questions were developed, followed by a systematic literature review, including network meta-analyses with ratings of the available evidence according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology, and patient input. A group consensus process was used to compose the final recommendations and grade their strength as strong or conditional.

RESULTS

Forty-two recommendations (including 16 strong recommendations) were generated. Strong recommendations included initiation of ULT for all patients with tophaceous gout, radiographic damage due to gout, or frequent gout flares; allopurinol as the preferred first-line ULT, including for those with moderate-to-severe chronic kidney disease (CKD; stage >3); using a low starting dose of allopurinol (≤100 mg/day, and lower in CKD) or febuxostat (<40 mg/day); and a treat-to-target management strategy with ULT dose titration guided by serial serum urate (SU) measurements, with an SU target of <6 mg/dl. When initiating ULT, concomitant antiinflammatory prophylaxis therapy for a duration of at least 3-6 months was strongly recommended. For management of gout flares, colchicine, nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs, or glucocorticoids (oral, intraarticular, or intramuscular) were strongly recommended.

CONCLUSION

Using GRADE methodology and informed by a consensus process based on evidence from the current literature and patient preferences, this guideline provides direction for clinicians and patients making decisions on the management of gout.

Loss-of-function mutations in the melanocortin-3 receptor gene confer risk for human obesity: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The association between rare coding loss-of-function (LOF) mutations in the melanocortin receptor 3 (MC3R) gene and human obesity is controversial. To fill this gap of knowledge, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of genetic association studies in all ages and ethnicities. Two reviewers independently performed risk of bias assessment and extracted data. We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science Core Collection, BIOSIS Preview, CINAHL, ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, and reference lists of relevant studies. All case-control, cross-sectional, prospective, and retrospective studies that evaluated prevalence of rare (less than 1% frequency) coding partial/complete LOF mutations in MC3R among individuals with obesity and normal weight were included. Our systematic search identified 1925 references relevant to the present review. Six studies were deemed eligible. Meta-analysis of 2969 individuals with obesity and 2572 with normal weight showed a positive association between rare heterozygous coding partial/complete LOF mutations in MC3R and obesity in children and adults of European, North African, and Asian ancestries (odds ratio = 3.07; 95% CI, 1.48-7.00; P = 4.2 × 10^-3 ). Our data demonstrates that rare partial/complete LOF mutations in the coding region of MC3R confer three-time increased risk of obesity in humans, and implies that rare genetic variants with intermediate effects contribute to the missing heritability of obesity.

Minimal important differences for improvement in shoulder condition patient-reported outcomes: a systematic review to inform a BMJ Rapid Recommendation

OBJECTIVES

To identify credible anchor-based minimal important differences (MIDs) for patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) relevant to a BMJ Rapid Recommendations addressing subacromial decompression surgery for shoulder pain.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Estimates of anchor-based MIDs, and their credibility, for PROMs judged by the parallel BMJ Rapid Recommendations panel as important for informing their recommendation (pain, function and health-related quality of life (HRQoL)).

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycINFO up to August 2018.

STUDY SELECTION AND REVIEW METHODS

We included original studies of any intervention for shoulder conditions reporting estimates of anchor-based MIDs for relevant PROMs. Two reviewers independently evaluated potentially eligible studies according to predefined selection criteria. Six reviewers, working in pairs, independently extracted data from eligible studies using a predesigned, standardised, pilot-tested extraction form and independently assessed the credibility of included studies using an MID credibility tool.

RESULTS

We identified 22 studies involving 5562 patients that reported 74 empirically estimated anchor-based MIDs for 10 candidate instruments to assess shoulder pain, function and HRQoL. We identified MIDs of high credibility for pain and function outcomes and of low credibility for HRQoL. We offered median estimates for the systematic review team who applied these MIDs in Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) evidence summaries and in their interpretations of results in the linked systematic review addressing the effectiveness of surgery for shoulder pain.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review provides anchor-based MID estimates, as well as a rating of their credibility, for PROMs for patients with shoulder conditions. The MID estimates inform the interpretation for a linked systematic review and guideline addressing subacromial decompression surgery for shoulder pain, and could also prove useful for authors addressing other interventions for shoulder problems.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018106531.

Gain-of-function variants in the melanocortin 4 receptor gene confer susceptibility to binge eating disorder in subjects with obesity: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The association between coding variants in the melanocortin 4 receptor gene (MC4R) and binge eating disorder (BED) in patients with obesity is controversial. Two independent reviewers systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, BIOSIS Previews, Web of Science Core Collection and Google Scholar up to February 2018, using terms describing the MC4R gene and BED. Six of 103 identified references were included. Studies examined associations between at least one coding variant/mutation in MC4R and BED and screened for BED as per the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified version of the Q-Genie tool, and overall quality of evidence was assessed using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation guidance. Meta-analysis was conducted via logistic regression models. A positive association between gain-of-function (GOF) variants in the MC4R and BED was observed (odds ratio [OR] = 3.05; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.82, 5.04; p = 1.7 × 10^-5 ), while no association was detected between loss-of-function (LOF) mutations and BED (OR = 1.50; 95% CI: 0.73, 2.96; p = 0.25). Similar results were found after accounting for study quality (GOF variants: OR = 3.15; 95% CI: 1.76, 5.66; p = 1.1 × 10^-4 ; LOF mutations: OR = 1.50; 95% CI: 0.73, 2.97; p = 0.25). Our systematic review and meta-analysis provides evidence that GOF variants as opposed to LOF mutations in MC4R are associated with BED in subjects with obesity.

On the origin of obesity: identifying the biological, environmental and cultural drivers of genetic risk among human populations

Genetic predisposition to obesity presents a paradox: how do genetic variants with a detrimental impact on human health persist through evolutionary time? Numerous hypotheses, such as the thrifty genotype hypothesis, attempt to explain this phenomenon yet fail to provide a justification for the modern obesity epidemic. In this critical review, we appraise existing theories explaining the evolutionary origins of obesity and explore novel biological and sociocultural agents of evolutionary change to help explain the modern-day distribution of obesity-predisposing variants. Genetic drift, acting as a form of 'blind justice,' may randomly affect allele frequencies across generations while gene pleiotropy and adaptations to diverse environments may explain the rise and subsequent selection of obesity risk alleles. As an adaptive response, epigenetic regulation of gene expression may impact the manifestation of genetic predisposition to obesity. Finally, exposure to malnutrition and disease epidemics in the wake of oppressive social systems, culturally mediated notions of attractiveness and desirability, and diverse mating systems may play a role in shaping the human genome. As an important first step towards the identification of important drivers of obesity gene evolution, this review may inform empirical research focused on testing evolutionary theories by way of population genetics and mathematical modelling.

The emerging threat of schistosomiasis spread in Pakistan

Schistosomiasis is among the thirteen neglected tropical diseases of the world. While prevalent in a number of countries, it has only rarely been reported in Pakistan. Here we report a 25 year old male who acquired the infection during travel to Malawi and presented with haematuria and dysuria. He was successfully treated with praziquantel. The possibility of schistosomiasis becoming endemic in the country is discussed. A number of risk factors are present including dams, irrigation, increased travel and geographical proximity to endemic countries. The local presence of at least one snail species of potential hosts for Schistosoma mansoni is confirmed. We see that schistosomiasis endemicity is a possible threat in Pakistan. Solutions to prevent this include reducing travel to endemic areas, prompt recognition and treatment of cases, and health education.

Inappropriate colonoscopic surveillance of hyperplastic polyps

Colonoscopic surveillance of hyperplastic polyps alone is controversial and may be inappropriate. The colonoscopy surveillance register at a university teaching hospital was audited to determine the extent of such hyperplastic polyp surveillance. The surveillance endoscopy records were reviewed, those patients with hyperplastic polyps were identified, their clinical records were examined and contact was made with each patient. Of the 483 patients undergoing surveillance for colonic polyps 113 (23%) had hyperplastic polyps alone on last colonoscopy. 104 patients remained after exclusion of those under appropriate surveillance. 87 of the 104 patients (84%) were successfully contacted. 37 patients (8%) were under appropriate colonoscopic surveillance for a significant family history of colorectal carcinoma. 50 (10%) patients with hyperplastic polyps alone and no other clinical indication for colonoscopic surveillance were booked for follow up colonoscopy. This represents not only a budgetary but more importantly a clinical opportunity cost the removal of which could liberate valuable colonoscopy time for more appropriate indications.

Round one of the Adelaide and Meath Hospital/Trinity College Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme: programme report and analysis based on established international key performance indices

BACKGROUND

In Ireland, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most frequently diagnosed cancer in men, after prostate cancer, and the second most frequently diagnosed cancer in women, after breast cancer. By 2020, the number of new cases diagnosed annually in Ireland is projected to have increased by 79% in men and 56% in women. Organised screening for CRC is already underway or is in the process of being rolled out in several European countries, either at a regional or national level. The Adelaide and Meath Hospital/ Trinity College Dublin Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme (TTC-CRC-SP) is Ireland's first pilot population based bowel screening programme.

METHOD

Based on a biennial test model the pilot aimed to assess the accuracy of FIT and to evaluate the whole programme based on established international key performance indices.

RESULTS

To date 9,993 individuals aged 50-74 years have been invited to participate in the TTC-CRC-SP with over 5,000 FIT's analysed. Overall uptake was 51% and FIT positivity was 10%. The programme has undertaken over 400 screening colonoscopies and detected 154 precancerous adenomas and 38 cancerous lesions.

CONCLUSIONS

The first round of The Adelaide and Meath Hospital Tallaght/Trinity College Dublin Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme has been highly successful and confirmed that there is an advantage for FIT based two stage bowel cancer screening programmes.

The role of capsule endoscopy in small bowel Crohn's disease

Video capsule endoscopy is an invaluable tool for examining the small bowel. It is non-invasive and generally well tolerated, however its role in the assessment of the severity and extent of small bowel Crohn's disease has not, to date, been adequately evaluated.

METHODS

All capsule endoscopies performed over a two year period in a tertiary referral centre in subjects with known or suspected Crohn's disease were reviewed.

RESULTS

Twenty-six capsule endoscopy studies in total were included. These were performed in 15 cases of known Crohn's disease, 5 cases of suspected Crohn's disease, 3 cases of endoscopically diagnosed non-specific terminal ileal inflammation and finally 3 post colectomy cases of indeterminant being considered for IPAA formation. Ten patients known to have small bowel Crohn's disease were prospectively recruited; of 3 with normal small bowel follow through or CT exams, one had an abnormal capsule endoscopy. The other 7 patients had small bowel follow through or abdominal CT scans consistent with small bowel Crohn's disease; additional mucosal abnormalities were detected by capsule endoscopy in 6 cases with capsule retention in the stomach in one. Of 5 with colonic Crohn's disease normal small bowel imaging corresponded with normal capsule endoscopy in all but one. A diagnosis of Crohn's disease was made in 2 out of 5 cases of suspected Crohn's disease on the basis of the capsule endoscopy findings. Three patients with non-specific acute terminal ileal inflammation at ileocolonoscopy were confirmed to have ongoing inflammation. The capsule was retained in four subjects beyond 24 h.

CONCLUSION

Capsule endoscopy more accurately determines the severity and extent of the Crohn's disease in the small bowel than traditional imaging modalities.

Defining a new standard for IVUS optimized drug eluting stent implantation: the PRAVIO study

OBJECTIVES

Preliminary Investigation to the Angiographic Versus IVUS Optimization Trial is a single center prospective observational intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) guided stent implantation study assessing new criteria for optimal drug eluting stent (DES) deployment.

BACKGROUND

IVUS assessment of DES often reveals underexpansion and malapposition. Optimal stent deployment is currently poorly defined and previous criteria may not be suitable in long and complex lesions.

METHODS

Optimization was defined as achieving >/or 70% of the cross-sectional area (CSA) of the postdilation balloon. This criterion was applied in 113 complex lesions. The size of this balloon was calculated according to vessel media-to-media diameters at various sites inside the stented segment. The IVUS guided treated lesions were matched according to diabetes, vessel type, reference vessel diameter, minimum lumen diameter (MLD), and lesion length with a group of angiographic treated lesions to compare final MLD achieved.

RESULTS

Mean minimum stent CSA according to the postdilation balloon utilized was 4.62 mm(2), 6.26 mm(2), 7.87 mm(2), and 9.87 mm(2) for 2.5 mm, 3.0 mm, 3.5 mm, and 4 mm balloons, respectively. Final MLD (mm) was significantly larger in the IVUS compared to the angiographic-guided group (3.09 +/- 0.50 vs. 2.67 +/- 0.54; P < 0.0001). There were no procedural complications related to IVUS use.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose new IVUS criteria based on vessel remodeling that results in an increment in the final MLD, compared to angiographic guidance, which is much larger than any previously published study. This criterion seems to be safely achievable. A proposed randomized study (angiographic vs. IVUS optimization trial) has been launched to test these concepts.

Analysis of drug resistance and virulence-factor genotype of Irish Helicobacter pylori strains: is there any relationship between resistance to metronidazole and cagA status?

BACKGROUND

Helicobacter pylori infection is eradicated with antimicrobial agents and drug-resistant strains make successful treatment difficult. Geographical variations in virulence-factor genotype also exist.

AIM

To evaluate prevalence of drug resistance and virulence-factor genotype in Irish H. pylori strains and to investigate if there is any relationship between drug resistance and genotype.

METHODS

Helicobacter pylori strains isolated from 103 patients were examined. Antimicrobial susceptibilities were tested by Etest. The virulence-factor genotypes were determined using PCR. Frequencies of spontaneous metronidazole-resistance were measured in vitro.

RESULTS

Metronidazole resistance was present in 37.9% of strains examined. 16.5% of strains were clarithromycin-resistant and resistance to both agents observed was found in 12.6% of strains. 68% of strains were cagA(+). The dominant vacA type was s1/m2, followed by s1/m1 and s2/m2. The metronidazole resistance rate in cagA(-) group was significantly higher than in cagA(+) (P = 0.0089). Spontaneous resistance to metronidazole in cagA(-) occurred in higher frequency when compared with cagA(+).

CONCLUSIONS

cagA(+) and vacAs1/m2 type was the dominant genotype in Irish H. pylori strains. Significant rates of metronidazole resistance were observed in cagA(-) group. cagA(-) strains tend to acquire metronidazole resistance in vitro. Absence of cagA might be a risk factor in development of metronidazole resistance.

Significant influence of the primary liver disease on the outcomes of hepatic retransplantation

BACKGROUND

There are many indications for hepatic retransplantation.

AIM

To identify factors influencing retransplantation needs and outcomes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Retransplantation records from January 1993 to March 2005 were analysed. Patient and disease characteristics and survival outcomes for retransplantation were compared between various groups.

RESULTS

Totally, 286 primary and 42 hepatic retransplantations were performed. Retransplantation indications included primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), primary biliary cirrhosis, chronic hepatitis C (HCV), chronic active hepatitis (CAH), and alcohol-related disease. Mean follow-up post-retransplantation was 31 +/- 9 months. Actuarial patient survival at 3 months, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, and at the end of study was 71.4, 69, 59.5, 54.7, and 50%, respectively. Early and late retransplantation had 1-year survival of 73 and 68.5%, respectively. Retransplantation need was significantly higher for PSC, HCV, and CAH.

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatic retransplantation remains a successful salvage option for transplant complications; however, its need is significantly influenced by the primary liver disease.

Improved survival outcomes for liver transplantation

Liver transplantation is the treatment of choice for end stage liver disease and fulminant hepatic failure. Outcome of the procedure may be dependent on multiple factors including patient selection, donor selection, and centre experience.

AIM

To determine whether the outcome for liver transplantation has improved over the time for the Irish National Liver Transplant Unit since its initial set up in 1993.

METHODS

All patients who underwent liver transplantation between Jan 1993 to Oct 2004 were included. Patients were sub-divided into three sequential cohorts of 90 patients each. Survival outcomes were compared between the groups.

RESULTS

270 patients (male = 137) underwent 323 liver transplants (median age 49 yrs, range 16-68 yrs). Indications included primary biliary cirrhosis (14.1%), alcohol related liver disease (6.2%), fulminant hepatic failure (14.2%), primary sclerosing cholangitis (10.1%), chronic active hepatitis (9.5%), viral hepatitis (9.5%) and cryptogenic cirrhosis (7.1%). Most procedures (85.8%) were elective. Re-transplantation rates within the first 3 months of primary procedure were 9%, 5%, and 5% for the three chronological groups. Overall calculated 3-month, 1-year and 3 year survival rates for group 1 were 87%, 82% and 77%. For the groups 2 and 3 the figures were 86%, 81%, 77% and 89%, 89%, and 81% respectively. One- and 3-year survival rates were significantly better for group 3 compared to group 1 (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Survival outcome has improved significantly over the past 12 years and is likely attributed to increasing experience of the transplant centre.

MELD score as a prognostic model for listing acute liver failure patients for liver transplantation

OBJECTIVES

The King's College Hospital (KCH) criteria are widely used for listing patients with acute liver failure (ALF) for liver transplantation (LT). Recent reports have suggested that the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score may be useful in assessing prognosis in ALF (nonparacetamol). This study compares prognostic accuracy of the two systems in patients with paracetamol (POD)-induced ALF treated in this unit.

METHODS

Seventy-two patients (average age 38 years; F:M ratio 2:1) admitted from 1994 to 2005 with POD-related ALF were studied. Clinical and biochemical parameters were recorded. The effect of applying a MELD score of greater than 30 as listing criteria for LT was calculated and compared with the KCH criteria. Outcomes were defined as LT, death, or full recovery.

RESULTS

Thirty-one patients (43%) recovered with medical therapy, 29 (40%) patients died, and 12 (17%) underwent LT. Sixty five percent of patients had a MELD > 30 and therefore could potentially be listed on admission; however, using KCH criteria only 24% patients were listed immediately. Sensitivity and negative predictive value of MELD was higher then KCH; however, we found KCH to have much higher specificity and positive predictive value.

CONCLUSION

MELD has higher sensitivity and negative predictive value for POD-induced ALF than the KCH criteria. However, the high false-positive rate associated with MELD limits its clinical utility. The high negative predictive value of MELD score may allow it to be used in conjunction with KCH criteria to avoid unneeded LT in patients who will likely recover spontaneously.

Phenotype at diagnosis predicts recurrence rates in Crohn's disease

BACKGROUND

In Crohn's disease (CD), studies associating phenotype at diagnosis and subsequent disease activity are important for patient counselling and health care planning.

AIMS

To calculate disease recurrence rates and to correlate these with phenotypic traits at diagnosis.

METHODS

A prospectively assembled uniformly diagnosed European population based inception cohort of CD patients was classified according to the Vienna classification for disease phenotype at diagnosis. Surgical and non-surgical recurrence rates throughout a 10 year follow up period were calculated. Multivariate analysis was performed to classify risk factors present at diagnosis for recurrent disease.

RESULTS

A total of 358 were classified for phenotype at diagnosis, of whom 262 (73.2%) had a first recurrence and 113 patients (31.6%) a first surgical recurrence during the first 10 years after diagnosis. Patients with upper gastrointestinal disease at diagnosis had an excess risk of recurrence (hazard ratio 1.54 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-2.10)) whereas age >/=40 years at diagnosis was protective (hazard ratio 0.82 (95% CI 0.70-0.97)). Colonic disease was a protective characteristic for resective surgery (hazard ratio 0.38 (95% CI 0.21-0.69)). More frequent resective surgical recurrences were reported from Copenhagen (hazard ratio 3.23 (95% CI 1.32-7.89)).

CONCLUSIONS

A mild course of disease in terms of disease recurrence was observed in this European cohort. Phenotype at diagnosis had predictive value for disease recurrence with upper gastrointestinal disease being the most important positive predictor. A phenotypic North-South gradient in CD may be present, illustrated by higher surgery risks in some of the Northern European centres.

Appropriateness of gastric antisecretory therapy in hospital practice

BACKGROUND

Recent data indicate an exponential increase in proton pump inhibitor (PPI) prescribing, and concerns are raised regarding the appropriateness of these prescriptions and the financial implications.

AIM

To survey the appropriateness of PPI prescription in a cohort of patients in a tertiary referral hospital.

METHODS

Prescription records of all inpatients on a randomly selected day were reviewed. The appropriateness of prescription and relevant investigations were identified by interview of patients, review of patient records and of a computerised endoscopy records system.

RESULTS

Thirty-two per cent (87 of 272) of all patients were on PPIs. A valid indication for therapy was not apparent in 63% of the patients on PPIs with the only predictive factor for inappropriate prescription being increasing age. Only 36 of the 87 patients on PPIs had undergone appropriate investigations for their gastrointestinal symptoms. Gender, age, speciality of admission or duration of hospital stay did not influence the appropriateness of prescription or performance of relevant investigations.

CONCLUSION

There appears to be a widespread and inappropriate use of PPIs in hospital practice.

Endoscopic argon plasma coagulation for the treatment of gastric antral vascular ectasia (watermelon stomach): long-term results

INTRODUCTION

Gastric antral vascular ectasia is a rare but well-recognised cause of occult gastrointestinal bleeding. Various endoscopic treatments have been tried in this condition. We report our experience with argon plasma coagulation in the treatment of gastric antral vascular ectasia.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Twelve patients with endoscopically proved gastric antral vascular ectasia were included. All patients received argon plasma coagulation with power of 40 W at a median interval of 4 weeks. The pre-treatment haemoglobin and transfusion requirements were compared with the post-treatment values.

RESULTS

There was a sustained increase in mean haemoglobin levels post-treatment. The mean haemoglobin levels pre- and post-treatment were 8.13 +/- 0.70 and 12.2 +/- 0.32 g/dl, respectively (P = 0.008). All patients were anaemic and 58.3% of the patients were transfusion dependent. The mean number of units of blood transfusion in the period 6 months prior to treatment was 11.3 +/- 5.68. Following argon plasma coagulation, the number of transfusions decreased significantly to 1.1 +/- 0.57 units (P = 0.018). No significant procedure-related complications were identified.

CONCLUSION

Argon plasma coagulation is a safe and effective alternative to the currently available endoscopic modalities of treatment for gastric antral vascular ectasia.

Leprosy: otolaryngologist's perspective

A patient with hemi-facial erythematous swelling as a result of borderline leprosy and reversal reaction is reported. This uncommon presentation of the disease poses initial diagnostic difficulties to the otolaryngologist. The otolaryngologist must be familiar with otolaryngologic manifestations of leprosy, since early diagnosis and treatment reduces the risk of transmission of the disease and may avoid permanent nerve damage.

Review article: treatment of Helicobacter pylori infection and factors influencing eradication

Currently available Helicobacter pylori eradication therapies are considered very effective and safe. The most recent eradication guidelines proposed in the Maastricht 2-2000 Consensus Report recommend the use of proton pump inhibitors (standard b.d.) along with clarithromycin (500 mg b.d.) and amoxycillin (1000 mg b.d.) or metronidazole (500 mg b.d.) for a minimum of 7 days. The combination of amoxycillin and clarithromycin is preferred because it may favour best results with a second-line proton pump inhibitor quadruple therapy. The recommended second-line therapy includes a combination of a proton pump inhibitor (standard b.d.) with bismuth salt (subsalicylate/subcitrate 120 mg q.d.s.), metronidazole (500 mg t.d.s.), and tetracycline (500 mg q.d.s.) for a minimum of 7 days. Extended proton pump inhibitor-based triple therapy can be used if bismuth is not available. Specialists should manage subsequent failures. Based on direct and indirect evidence from well-designed studies and clinical experience, eradication is recommended in gastric and duodenal ulcers, MALToma, atrophic gastritis, postgastric cancer resection, and in first-degree relatives of gastric cancer patients. The most common reason for treatment failure is poor compliance with eradication guidelines. Antibiotic resistance may be a significant factor in certain geographical areas. Proton pump inhibitors are an integral part of the eradication regimens as proved by meta-analyses of clinical trials. Novel agents used in secondary failure are few and depend on the use of new antibiotics. The role of H. pylori-specific antibiotics, probiotics, and vaccines is not established as yet. Widespread acceptance of the eradication guidelines should be regarded as the single most important factor in eradication success.