Novel prognostic biomarkers in decompensated cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis experience high mortality rates. Current prognostic scores, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), may underperform in settings other than in those they were initially developed. Novel biomarkers have been proposed to improve prognostication accuracy and even to predict development of complications.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on novel urine and blood biomarkers and their ability to predict 90-day mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Secondary outcomes included 28-day and 1-year mortality, and development of acute-on-chronic liver failure, acute kidney injury and other complications. To overcome differences in units, temporal changes in assays and reporting heterogeneity, we used the ratio of means (RoM) as measure of association for assessing strength in predicting outcomes. An RoM>1 implies that the mean biomarker level is higher in those that develop the outcome than in those that do not.

RESULTS

Of 6629 unique references, 103 were included, reporting on 29 different biomarkers, with a total of 31 362 biomarker patients. Most studies were prospective cohorts of hospitalised patients (median Child-Pugh-Turcotte score of 9 and MELD score of 18). The pooled 90-day mortality rate was 0.27 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.29). The RoM for predicting 90-day mortality was highest for interleukin 6 (IL-6) (2.56, 95% CI 2.39 to 2.74), followed by urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) (2.42, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.66) and copeptin (2.33, 95% CI 2.17 to 2.50). These RoMs were all higher than for MELD (1.44, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.46).

CONCLUSION

Novel biomarkers, including IL-6, uNGAL and copeptin, can probably improve prognostication of patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared with MELD alone.

The Seroprevalence of Hepatitis C Antibodies in Immigrants and Refugees from Intermediate and High Endemic Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a significant global health issue that leads to 350,000 preventable deaths annually due to associated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Immigrants and refugees (migrants) originating from intermediate/high HCV endemic countries are likely at increased risk for HCV infection due to HCV exposure in their countries of origin. The aim of this study was to estimate the HCV seroprevalence of the migrant population living in low HCV prevalence countries.

METHODS

Four electronic databases were searched from database inception until June 17, 2014 for studies reporting the prevalence of HCV antibodies among migrants. Seroprevalence estimates were pooled with a random-effect model and were stratified by age group, region of origin and migration status and a meta-regression was modeled to explore heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Data from 50 studies representing 38,635 migrants from all world regions were included. The overall anti-HCV prevalence (representing previous and current infections) was 1.9% (95% CI, 1.4-2.7%, I2 96.1). Older age and region of origin, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe were the strongest predictors of HCV seroprevalence. The estimated HCV seroprevalence of migrants from these regions was >2% and is higher than that reported for most host populations.

CONCLUSION

Adult migrants originating from Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe are at increased risk for HCV and may benefit from targeted HCV screening.