Loss of the epithelial marker CDX1 predicts poor prognosis in early-stage CRC patients

BACKGROUND

We have previously shown that non-curative chemotherapy imposes fetal conversion and high metastatic capacity to cancer cells. From the set of genes differentially expressed in Chemotherapy Resistant Cells, we obtained a characteristic fetal intestinal cell signature that is present in a group of untreated tumors and is sufficient to predict patient prognosis. A feature of this fetal signature is the loss of CDX1.

METHODS

We have analyzed transcriptomic data in public datasets and performed immunohistochemistry analysis of paraffin embedded tumor samples from two cohorts of colorectal cancer patients.

RESULTS

We demonstrated that low levels of CDX1 are sufficient to identify patients with poorest outcome at the early tumor stages II and III. Presence tumor areas that are negative for CDX1 staining in stage I cancers is associated with tumor relapse.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results reveal the actual possibility of incorporating CDX1 immunostaining as a valuable biomarker for CRC patients.

Pre-emptive TIPS in high-risk acute variceal bleeding. An updated and revised individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A previous individual patient data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) showed that compared with drugs+endoscopy, the placement of transjugular portosystemic shunt within 72 hours of admission (pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt: p-TIPS) increases the survival of high-risk patients (Child-Pugh B+ active bleeding and Child-Pugh C<14 points) with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding. However, the previous IPD-MA was not a two-stage meta-analysis, did not consider the potential risk of selection bias of observational studies, and did not include the most recent randomized clinical trial. We performed an updated and revised IPD-MA to reassess the efficacy of p-TIPS, addressing all previous issues.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We included all studies from the previous IPD-MA and searched for other possible eligible publications until September 2022. We performed a two-stage IPD-MA of data from 8 studies (4 randomized clinical trials and 4 observational). In addition, we performed a sensitivity analysis excluding those patients dying up to the first 72 hours after admission in the Drugs+Endoscopy arms of the 4 observational studies. The primary end point was the effects of p-TIPS versus Drugs+Endoscopy on 1-year survival.We identified 1389 patients (342 p-TIPS and 1047 Drugs+Endoscopy). The two-stage IPD-MA showed that p-TIPS significantly reduced the mortality in the overall population (HR=0·43, 95% CI: 0.32-0.60, p <0.001. This effect was observed in both subgroups of patients with Child-Pugh. The sensitivity analysis confirmed the survival benefit of p-TIPS.

CONCLUSIONS

The updated two-stage IPD-MA confirms the significant survival advantage of p-TIPS in high-risk patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding. As a result, we recommend p-TIPS as the preferred first-choice treatment for these patients.

Defining Minimum Treatment Parameters of Ablative Radiation Therapy in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma: An Expert Consensus

PURPOSE

External beam radiation therapy (EBRT) is a highly effective treatment in select patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system does not recommend the use of EBRT in HCC due to a lack of sufficient evidence and intends to perform an individual patient level meta-analysis of ablative EBRT in this population. However, there are many types of EBRT described in the literature with no formal definition of what constitutes "ablative." Thus, we convened a group of international experts to provide consensus on the parameters that define ablative EBRT in HCC.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Fundamental parameters related to dose, fractionation, radiobiology, target identification, and delivery technique were identified by a steering committee to generate 7 Key Criteria (KC) that would define ablative EBRT for HCC. Using a modified Delphi (mDelphi) method, experts in the use of EBRT in the treatment of HCC were surveyed. Respondents were given 30 days to respond in round 1 of the mDelphi and 14 days to respond in round 2. A threshold of ≥70% was used to define consensus for answers to each KC.

RESULTS

Of 40 invitations extended, 35 (88%) returned responses. In the first round, 3 of 7 KC reached consensus. In the second round, 100% returned responses and consensus was reached in 3 of the remaining 4 KC. The distribution of answers for one KC, which queried the a/b ratio of HCC, was such that consensus was not achieved. Based on this analysis, ablative EBRT for HCC was defined as a BED10 ≥80 Gy with daily imaging and multiphasic contrast used for target delineation. Treatment breaks (eg, for adaptive EBRT) are allowed, but the total treatment time should be ≤6 weeks. Equivalent dose when treating with protons should use a conversion factor of 1.1, but there is no single conversion factor for carbon ions.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a mDelphi method assessing expert opinion, we provide the first consensus definition of ablative EBRT for HCC. Empirical data are required to define the a/b of HCC.

Navigating the landscape of liver cancer management: Study designs in clinical trials and clinical practice

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fourth leading cause of cancer death worldwide and its prognosis is highly heterogeneous, being related not only to tumour burden but also to the severity of underlying chronic liver disease. Moreover, advances in systemic therapies for HCC have increased the complexity of patient management. Randomised-controlled trials represent the gold standard for evidence generation across all areas of medicine and especially in the oncology field, as they allow for unbiased estimates of treatment effect without confounders. Observational studies have many problems that could reduce their internal and external validity. However, large prospective (well-conducted) observational real-world studies can detect rare adverse events or monitor the occurrence of long-term adverse events. How best to harness real world data, which refers to data generated from the routine care of patients, and real-world 'evidence', which is the evidence generated from real-world data, represents an open challenge. In this review article, we aim to provide an overview of the benefits and limitations of different study designs, particularly focusing on randomised-controlled trials and observational studies, to address important and not fully resolved questions in HCC research.

Improving primary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding by adapting therapy to the clinical stage of cirrhosis. A competing-risk meta-analysis of individual participant data

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Non-selective β-blockers (NSBBs) and endoscopic variceal-ligation (EVL) have similar efficacy preventing first variceal bleeding. Compensated and decompensated cirrhosis are markedly different stages, which may impact treatment outcomes. We aimed to assess the efficacy of NSBBs vs EVL on survival in patients with high-risk varices without previous bleeding, stratifying risk according to compensated/decompensated stage of cirrhosis.

METHODS

By systematic review, we identified RCTs comparing NSBBs vs EVL, in monotherapy or combined, for primary bleeding prevention. We performed a competing-risk, time-to-event meta-analysis, using individual patient data (IPD) obtained from principal investigators of RCTs. Analyses were stratified according to previous decompensation of cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Of 25 RCTs eligible, 14 failed to provide IPD and 11 were included, comprising 1400 patients (656 compensated, 744 decompensated), treated with NSBBs (N = 625), EVL (N = 546) or NSBB+EVL (N = 229). Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Overall, mortality risk was similar with EVL vs. NSBBs (subdistribution hazard-ratio (sHR) = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.75-1.49) and with EVL + NSBBs vs either monotherapy, with low heterogeneity (I2  = 28.7%). In compensated patients, mortality risk was higher with EVL vs NSBBs (sHR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.11-2.77) and not significantly lower with NSBBs+EVL vs NSBBs, without heterogeneity (I2  = 0%). In decompensated patients, mortality risk was similar with EVL vs. NSBBs and with NSBBs+EVL vs. either monotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with compensated cirrhosis and high-risk varices on primary prophylaxis, NSBBs significantly improved survival vs EVL, with no additional benefit noted adding EVL to NSBBs. In decompensated patients, survival was similar with both therapies. The study suggests that NSBBs are preferable when advising preventive therapy in compensated patients.

Novel prognostic biomarkers in decompensated cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis experience high mortality rates. Current prognostic scores, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), may underperform in settings other than in those they were initially developed. Novel biomarkers have been proposed to improve prognostication accuracy and even to predict development of complications.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on novel urine and blood biomarkers and their ability to predict 90-day mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Secondary outcomes included 28-day and 1-year mortality, and development of acute-on-chronic liver failure, acute kidney injury and other complications. To overcome differences in units, temporal changes in assays and reporting heterogeneity, we used the ratio of means (RoM) as measure of association for assessing strength in predicting outcomes. An RoM>1 implies that the mean biomarker level is higher in those that develop the outcome than in those that do not.

RESULTS

Of 6629 unique references, 103 were included, reporting on 29 different biomarkers, with a total of 31 362 biomarker patients. Most studies were prospective cohorts of hospitalised patients (median Child-Pugh-Turcotte score of 9 and MELD score of 18). The pooled 90-day mortality rate was 0.27 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.29). The RoM for predicting 90-day mortality was highest for interleukin 6 (IL-6) (2.56, 95% CI 2.39 to 2.74), followed by urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) (2.42, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.66) and copeptin (2.33, 95% CI 2.17 to 2.50). These RoMs were all higher than for MELD (1.44, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.46).

CONCLUSION

Novel biomarkers, including IL-6, uNGAL and copeptin, can probably improve prognostication of patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared with MELD alone.

Reporting reimbursement price decisions for onco-hematology drugs in Spain

Introduction

Even using well-established technology assessment processes, the basis of the decisions on drug price and reimbursement are sometimes perceived as poorly informed and sometimes may be seen as disconnected from value. The literature remains inconclusive about how Health Technology Assessment Bodies (HTAb) should report the determinants of their decisions. This study evaluates the relationship between oncology and hematology drug list prices and structured value parameters at the time of reimbursement decision in Spain.

Methods

The study includes all new onco-hematological products (22), with a first indication authorized between January 2017 and December 2019 in Spain and pricing decisions published up until October 2022. For each product, 56 contextual and non-contextual indicators reflecting the structured multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) - Evidence-based Decision-Making (EVIDEM) framework were measured. The relationship between prices and the MCDA-EVIDEM framework was explored using univariate statistical analyses.

Results

Higher prices were observed when the standard of care included for combinations, if there were references to long-lasting responses, for fixed-duration treatment compared to treatment until progression and treatment with lower frequencies of administration; lower prices were observed for oral administration compared to other routes of administration. Statistically significant associations were observed between prices and the median duration of treatment, the impact on patient autonomy, the ease of use of the drug, and the recommendations of experts.

Discussion

The study suggests that indicators related to the type of standard of care, references to long-lasting responders, the convenience of the use of the drug, and the impact of treatment on patient autonomy, as well as contextual indicators such as the existence of previous clinical consensus, are factors in setting oncology drug prices in Spain. The implementation of MCDA-EVIDEM methodologies may be useful to capture the influence on pricing decisions of additional factors not included in legislation or consolidated assessment frameworks such as the European Network for Health Technology Assessment (EunetHTA) core model. It may be opportune to consider this in the upcoming revision of the Spanish regulation for health technology assessments and pricing and reimbursement procedures.

Risk Factors Associated with Development of Peritumoral Edema Following Stereotactic Radiosurgery and Radiotherapy for Intracranial Meningioma

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Peritumoral edema (PTE) is a potential adverse effect following radiotherapy for intracranial meningioma. The purpose of this study is to identify which baseline factors may increase risk for PTE.

MATERIALS/METHODS

A retrospective chart review was conducted of 431 patients who underwent primary radiotherapy to 480 radiographically-defined intracranial meningiomas between January 2008 and December 2021 within an integrated health care system. Patients with prior surgical management were excluded. Patients were treated with frameless LINAC-based image-guided single fraction stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) (32.9%), 5 fraction SRS (FSRS) (30.8%), or fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (FSRT) (36.3%). Pre- and post-radiotherapy MRI studies were reviewed to evaluate for PTE following treatment. An event was defined as new or worsening PTE compared to pre-radiotherapy imaging or development of new symptoms post-radiotherapy. Univariate and stepwise logistics regression analyses were performed to compare the risk of PTE between groups.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 85.8 months (IQR: 49.4-125.4). Median patient age was 66 years (IQR: 56-73). Patients treated with SRS (median age: 61 years) were younger than those treated with FSRS/FSRT (median age: 68 years) (p<0.001). Lesions treated with SRS (median volume: 1.33cc) were smaller than those treated with FSRS/FSRT (median volume: 6.36cc) (p<0.001). For all-comers, 68 (14.2%) lesions developed any PTE, and 27 (5.6%) developed symptomatic PTE (SPTE). Of these, 4 patients developed symptoms post-treatment without radiographic evidence of new or worsening PTE. Incidence of PTE/SPTE by site was as follows: base of skull (BOS): 10.3%/6.1%, convexity: 22.7%/7.6%, falcine: 17.6%/4.1%, parasagittal: 27.8%/8.3%, posterior fossa/tentorium 7.0%/0.0%. Incidence of PTE/SPTE by technique was as follows: SRS: 6.3%/3.8%, FSRS: 20.9%/7.4%, FSRT: 15.5%/5.7%. On univariate analysis, age >65 (OR = 2.17 (95% CI: 1.26-3.77) p = 0.006), tumor volume (OR = 1.05 (1.02-1.08), p = 0.003), pre-treatment PTE (OR = 6.82 (95% CI: 3.59-12.94) p<0.001), and convexity/falcine/parasagittal (CFPS) location (OR = 2.52 (95% CI: 1.49-4.23) p<0.001) were associated with increased incidence of PTE. On multivariate analysis, age >65 (OR = 1.91 (95% CI: 1.05-3.45) p<0.03), tumor volume (OR = 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00-1.08) p = 0.03), pre-treatment PTE (OR = 4.64 (95% CI: 2.33-9.24) p<0.001), and CFPS location (OR = 2.53 (95% CI: 1.41-4.52) p = 0.002) were associated with increased incidence of PTE. Two patients with PTE underwent resection for local failure which revealed atypical meningioma.

CONCLUSION

Age >65, larger tumor volume, presence of pre-treatment PTE, and CFPS location were associated with increased incidence of PTE following radiotherapy. Patients with these risk factors should be counseled regarding post-treatment effects. Infrequently, PTE following treatment may be an indicator of higher-grade meningioma.

Impact of Concurrent Targeted Therapy and Immunotherapy on the Incidence of Radiation Necrosis Following Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Brain Metastases

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

The management of metastatic disease has evolved with the advent of immunotherapy (IT) and targeted therapies (TT). Yet, there is limited understanding of the toxicity associated with combining these agents with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). We retrospectively evaluated the impact of concurrent systemic therapy (ST) on the risk of radiation necrosis (RN) following LINAC-based SRS for brain metastases (BM).

MATERIALS/METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted within an integrated health care system from March 2017 to December 2021 of 313 patients who underwent SRS or fractionated SRS in 3 or 5 treatments to a total of 1,644 intact BM. Post-operative cavity SRS and re-irradiated lesions were excluded. RN was diagnosed using perfusion MRI, contrast clearance MRI, or serial standard MRI and graded using CTCAE (v.5). Concurrent ST was defined as administration within 1 month preceding or following SRS. Overall survival (OS) and risk of RN were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Logistics regression analyses were performed to compare risk of RN in patients who received concurrent systemic therapy to those who did not, adjusted for PTV volume and receipt of whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT).

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 12.2 months. Median age was 64 years (range: 24-92). Primary sites per patient included lung (48.9%), breast (18.2%), melanoma (11.5%), kidney (6.1%), and other (15.3%). Median total lesions treated was 3 (range: 1-44); 65.9% of patients underwent 1 course of SRS, 23.4% underwent 2 courses, 6.2% underwent 3 courses, 4.5% underwent >4 courses. Seventy-six (24.2%) patients received WBRT. Overall, 70.6% of lesions received concurrent ST including chemotherapy (CT) (32.5%), IT (26.8%), and TT (27.6%); 16.4% received a combination of ST. Median OS was 12.9 months (95% CI: 10.4-15.5). RN was observed in 50 (3.0%) lesions in 42 (13.4%) patients. The 1-year risk of RN was 4.0% per lesion and 15.4% per patient. Symptomatic RN (SRN) was observed in 31 (1.9%) lesions in 24 (7.7%) patients. The 1-year risk of SRN was 2.7% per lesion and 10.1% per patient. When compared to lesions treated without concurrent systemic therapy, there was no increased risk of RN observed in lesions treated with concurrent CT (adjusted OR = 0.86 (95% CI: 0.43-1.73) p = 0.68), concurrent IT (adjusted OR = 0.84 (95% CI: 0.41-1.71) p = 0.84), or concurrent TT (adjusted OR = 0.57 (95% CI: 0.25-1.30) p = 0.18). Treatments of SRN included dexamethasone (96.8%), bevacizumab (22.6%), and laser interstitial thermal therapy (6.5%).

CONCLUSION

Concurrent IT and TT appears well-tolerated in patients who undergo SRS for treatment of BM. No increased risk of RN was observed in lesions treated with concurrent IT or TT compared to lesions treated in the absence of concurrent ST. Further prospective and agent-specific evaluation is necessary to confirm these findings.

Impact of Second-Line Combination Treatment for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus on Disease Control: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease affecting millions of people worldwide. Achieving and maintaining glycemic control is essential to prevent or delay complications and different strategies are available as second-line treatment options for patients with type 2 diabetes who do not achieve glycemic control with metformin monotherapy.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this work is to describe the impact of initiating a combination treatment to reduce glycated hemoglobin in patients with type 2 diabetes with insufficient glycemic control.

METHODS

We included patients with a type 2 diabetes diagnosis between 2015 and 2020 at the Information System for Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP) database in Catalonia, Spain. The primary outcome was the time to glycated hemoglobin control (≤ 7%) during the first 720 days, expressed as the restricted mean survival time. Adjusted differences of the restricted mean survival time were compared to analyze the performance of each treatment versus the combination with a sulfonylurea. Adherence was calculated as the medication possession ratio using an algorithm to model treatment exposure.

RESULTS

A total of 28,425 patients were analyzed. The most frequent combinations were those with sulfonylureas and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors. All treatments reduced glycated hemoglobin and the restricted mean survival time for the sulfonylurea treatment was 455 (451-459) days although combinations with glucagon-like peptide-1 and insulin reached glycemic control earlier, - 126 days (- 152 to - 100, p < 0.001) and - 69 days (- 88 to - 50, p < 0.001), respectively. Adherence was high in all groups apart from the insulin combination and had a significant effect in reducing glycated hemoglobin except in sodium-glucose cotransporter type 2 inhibitors and insulin. Glucagon-like peptide-1 and sodium-glucose cotransporter type 2 inhibitors showed significant reductions in weight.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients achieved the glycated hemoglobin goal with second-line treatments. Glucagon-like peptide-1 and insulin combinations achieved the goal earlier than sulfonylurea combinations. Adherence significantly reduced the time to glycated hemoglobin control except for the combination with sodium-glucose cotransporter type 2 inhibitors.

Quantifying the benefit of nonselective beta-blockers in the prevention of hepatic decompensation: A Bayesian reanalysis of the PREDESCI trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Beta-blockers have been studied for the prevention of variceal bleeding and, more recently, for the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Some uncertainties regarding the benefit of beta-blockers for the prevention of decompensation remain. Bayesian analyses enhance the interpretation of trials. The purpose of this study was to provide clinically meaningful estimates of both the probability and magnitude of the benefit of beta-blocker treatment across a range of patient types.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We undertook a Bayesian reanalysis of PREDESCI incorporating 3 priors (moderate neutral, moderate optimistic, and weak pessimistic). The probability of clinical benefit was assessed considering the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Microsimulation analyses were done to determine the magnitude of the benefit. In the Bayesian analysis, the probability that beta-blockers reduce all-cause decompensation was >0.93 for all priors. The Bayesian posterior hazard ratios (HR) for decompensation ranged from 0.50 (optimistic prior, 95% credible interval 0.27-0.93) to 0.70 (neutral prior, 95% credible interval 0.44-1.12). Exploring the benefit of treatment using microsimulation highlights substantial treatment benefits. For the neutral prior derived posterior HR and a 5% annual incidence of decompensation, at 10 years, an average of 497 decompensation-free years per 1000 patients were gained with treatment. In contrast, at 10 years 1639 years per 1000 patients were gained from the optimistic prior derived posterior HR and a 10% incidence of decompensation.

CONCLUSIONS

Beta-blocker treatment is associated with a high probability of clinical benefit. This likely translates to a substantial gain in decompensation-free life years at the population level.

Indolent cancer and pattern of progression: Two missing parameters in trial design for hepatology

The indolent and aggressive behaviors of HCC might have a role in clinical trial (CT) results; however, the indolent HCC is less analyzed compared to others cancer. Indolent profile could be characterized as follows: (1) patients with low risk of progression itself due to the HCC molecular profile and/or due to the interaction between cancer cell their microenvironment; (2) patients who achieve objective response or present spontaneous regression; and (3) patients who develop radiological progression with no consequence on either the liver function or general status, and without trigger a change in the tumor stage. Patients with "indolent HCC" generally never develop cancer-related symptoms neither die for HCC-related causes. Thus, we hypothesize that the imbalance in the proportion of "indolent" versus "aggressive HCC" between arms or the underestimation/overestimation of HCC behavior at baseline in single-arm CT could be associated with CT failure or under-overestimation of trial results. The "indolent progression" may also explain the discrepancy between radiological progression-based end points and survival. Moreover, we discuss the related causes that explain the indolent profile of HCC and propose (1) refining the progression-related end point by the pattern of progression to minimize the limitations of the current end points; (2) considering alternative statistical tools for survival analysis such as milestone survival, or restricted mean survival time to capture the value of indolent HCC. According to these considerations, we propose incorporating novel end points into the single arm of phase I/II CT as exploratory analysis or as a secondary end point in phase III CT.

Utilisation of drugs for the treatment of psychiatric diseases in the pediatric population: focus on off-label use

Psychotropics are increasingly used in pediatrics, often as off-label medicines. The guarantees of safety and efficacy are not always granted in clinical practice compared to adult authorised indications. A retrospective observational study was done to estimate the prevalence of psychotropic use in pediatric subjects of Catalonia (Spain). Anonymised data on dispensation of psychotropics to pediatric patients, demography and other related data were obtained by the local healthcare management for the period 2008-2017. Estimation of off-label use was done through description of drug dispensations with no authorised use related to age range. The prevalence of psychotropics was 40.8-64.2 per 1,000 pediatric inhabitants. Hydroxyzine-only represented two-thirds of dispensations, and when removed, the prevalence dropped to 26.4-32.2 per 1,000 pediatric inhabitants. Adolescents and boys were more likely to receive a psychotropic. Psychostimulants had the highest exposure rate, mainly due to methylphenidate. Off-label use was observed in 12% of subjects, corresponding to 4.6% of all dispensed psychotropics with boys being more exposed. The proportion of off-label use vs. labelled use was higher in younger populations. Aripiprazole had the highest off-label frequency. Our data support the frequent reality of off-label use in pediatrics, despite the potential underestimation related to the selected off-label definition. There is an urgent need to systematically ascertain effectiveness and any potential adverse events in the off-label pediatric setting, and to generate valuable information for risk-benefit assessment in these populations where extrapolation from adults is not reliable.

Longitudinal treatment patterns in patients recently diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Catalonia

AIM

To investigate initial and subsequent treatments prescribed to newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients.

METHODS

Data from SIDIAP (Information System for Research in Primary Care) including all recorded incident T2DM patients in primary care between 2015 and 2020. We used descriptive statistics and different graphical techniques to describe the most frequent longitudinal patterns.

RESULTS

A total of 86,854 patients were included. 78.3% of the patients began treatment with a single metformin medication and 21.7% began with a combination therapy (CT). Metformin was the most frequent treatment as first and third-line therapy, while the CT of metformin with DPP4i or sulfonylurea was more prevalent as second-line. Most common first to third-line pattern was initial metformin for 15 months, adding a second antidiabetic in the second line, staying in CT for 6 months, and switching back to single metformin. Treatment patterns varied depending on HbA1c levels, with higher levels (>8%) being associated with changes to CT and lower levels with switches to monotherapy or temporary discontinuation.

CONCLUSION

The study described in detail the different treatment patterns in incident T2DM patients in Catalonia, its adherence to the guidelines, and how the changes are associated to the HbA1c dynamics.

Metabolomics as a tool to predict the risk of decompensation or liver-related death in patients with compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with compensated cirrhosis with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH: HVPG > 10 mm Hg) have a high risk of decompensation. HVPG is, however, an invasive procedure not available in all centers. The present study aims to assess whether metabolomics can improve the capacity of clinical models in predicting clinical outcomes in these compensated patients.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This is a nested study from the PREDESCI cohort (an RCT of nonselective beta-blockers vs. placebo in 201 patients with compensated cirrhosis and CSPH), including 167 patients for whom a blood sample was collected. A targeted metabolomic serum analysis, using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, was performed. Metabolites underwent univariate time-to-event cox regression analysis. Top-ranked metabolites were selected using Log-Rank p -value to generate a stepwise cox model. Comparison between models was done using DeLong test. Eighty-two patients with CSPH were randomized to nonselective beta-blockers and 85 to placebo. Thirty-three patients developed the main endpoint (decompensation/liver-related death). The model, including HVPG, Child-Pugh, and treatment received ( HVPG/Clinical model ), had a C-index of 0.748 (CI95% 0.664-0.827). The addition of 2 metabolites, ceramide (d18:1/22:0) and methionine (HVPG/Clinical/Metabolite model), significantly improved the model's performance [C-index of 0.808 (CI95% 0.735-0.882); p =0.032]. The combination of these 2 metabolites together with Child-Pugh and the type of treatment received (Clinical/Metabolite model) had a C-index of 0.785 (CI95% 0.710-0.860), not significantly different from the HVPG-based models including or not metabolites.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with compensated cirrhosis and CSPH, metabolomics improves the capacity of clinical models and achieves similar predictive capacity than models including HVPG.

Vitamin D Supplementation and Its Impact on Mortality and Cardiovascular Outcomes: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 80 Randomized Clinical Trials

BACKGROUND

The impact of vitamin D supplementation on cardiovascular outcomes and mortality risk reduction remains unclear due to conflicting study findings.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), published between 1983 and 2022, that reported the effect of vitamin D supplementation in adults versus placebo or no treatment on all-cause mortality (ACM), cardiovascular mortality (CVM), non-cardiovascular mortality (non-CVM), and cardiovascular morbidities. Only studies with a follow-up period longer than one year were included. The primary outcomes were ACM and CVM. Secondary outcomes were non-CVM, myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, and major or extended adverse cardiovascular events. Subgroup analyses were performed according to low-, fair- and good-quality RCTs.

RESULTS

Eighty RCTs were assessed, including 82,210 participants receiving vitamin D supplementation and 80,921 receiving placebo or no treatment. The participants' mean (SD) age was 66.1 (11.2) years, and 68.6% were female. Vitamin D supplementation was associated with a lower risk of ACM (OR: 0.95 [95%CI 0.91-0.99] p = 0.013), was close to statistical significance for a lower risk of non-CVM (OR: 0.94 [95%CI 0.87-1.00] p = 0.055), and was not statistically associated with a lower risk of any cardiovascular morbi-mortality outcome. Meta-analysis of low-quality RCTs showed no association with cardiovascular or non-cardiovascular morbi-mortality outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The emerging results of our meta-analysis present evidence that vitamin D supplementation appears to decrease the risk of ACM (especially convincing in the fair- and good-quality RCTs), while not showing a decrease in the specific cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk. Thus, we conclude that further research is warranted in this area, with well-planned and executed studies as the basis for more robust recommendations.

Carvedilol reduces the risk of decompensation and mortality in patients with compensated cirrhosis in a competing-risk meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Whether non-selective β-blockers can prevent decompensation of cirrhosis warrants clarification. Carvedilol might be particularly effective since its intrinsic vasodilatory activity may ameliorate hepatic vascular resistance, a major mechanism of portal hypertension in early cirrhosis. We assessed whether carvedilol may prevent decompensation and improve survival in patients with compensated cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH).

METHODS

By systematic review we identified randomized-controlled trials (RCTs) comparing carvedilol vs. control therapy (no-active treatment or endoscopic variceal ligation [EVL]) in patients with cirrhosis and CSPH without previous bleeding. We performed a competing-risk time-to-event meta-analysis using individual patient data (IPD) obtained from principal investigators of RCTs. Only compensated patients were included. Primary outcomes were prevention of decompensation (liver transplantation and death were competing events) and death (liver transplantation was a competing event). Models were adjusted using propensity scores for baseline covariates with the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach.

RESULTS

Among 125 full-text studies evaluated, 4 RCTs were eligible. The 4 provided IPD and were included, comprising 352 patients with compensated cirrhosis, 181 treated with carvedilol and 171 controls (79 received EVL and 92 placebo). Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Standardized differences were <10% by IPTW. The risk of developing decompensation of cirrhosis was lower with carvedilol than in controls (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 0.506; 95% CI 0.289-0.887; p = 0.017; I2 = 0.0%, Q-statistic-p = 0.880), mainly due to a reduced risk of ascites (SHR 0.491; 95% CI 0.247-0.974; p = 0.042; I2 = 0.0%, Q-statistic-p = 0.384). The risk of death was also lower with carvedilol (SHR 0.417; 95% CI 0.194-0.896; p = 0.025; I2 = 0.0%, Q-statistic-p = 0.989).

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term carvedilol therapy reduced decompensation of cirrhosis and significantly improved survival in compensated patients with CSPH. This suggests that screening patients with compensated cirrhosis for CSPH to enable the prompt initiation of carvedilol could improve outcomes.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019144786.

LAY SUMMARY

The transition from compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis is associated with markedly reduced life expectancy. Therefore, preventing decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis would be associated with greatly improved patient outcomes. There has been controversy regarding the use of non-selective β-blockers (portal pressure-lowering medications) in patients with cirrhosis and elevated portal blood pressure (portal hypertension). Herein, using a competing-risk meta-analysis to optimize sample size and properly investigate cirrhosis as a multistate disease and outcomes as time-dependent events, we show that carvedilol (a non-selective β-blocker) is associated with a reduced risk of decompensating events and improved survival in patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension.

Polymorphism AGT2 (rs4762) is involved in the development of dermatologic events: Proof-of-concept in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with sorafenib

BACKGROUND

Dermatologic adverse events (DAEs) are associated with a better outcome in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) irrespective of the therapeutic agent received. The exact mechanisms associated with the development of DAEs are unknown although several studies point to direct toxicity of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) to the skin or an immune-mediated reaction triggered by the oncologic treatment. As is the case in other conditions, individual genetic variants may partially explain a higher risk of DAEs.

AIM

To evaluate the contribution of several gene variants to the risk of developing DAEs in HCC patients treated with TKIs.

METHODS

We first analyzed 27 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 12 genes selected as potential predictors of adverse event (AE) development in HCC patients treated with sorafenib [Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer 1 (BCLC1) cohort]. Three additional cohorts were analyzed for AGT1 (rs699) and AGT2 (rs4762) polymorphisms-initially identified as predictors of DAEs: BCLC2 (n = 79), Northern Italy (n = 221) and Naples (n = 69) cohorts, respectively. The relation between SNPs and DAEs and death were assessed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression models, and presented with hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals (95%CI).

RESULTS

The BCLC1 cohort showed that patients with arterial hypertension (AHT) (HR = 1.61; P value = 0.007) and/or AGT SNPs had an increased risk of DAEs. Thereafter, AGT2 (rs4762) AA genotype was found to be linked to a statistically significant increased probability of DAEs (HR = 5.97; P value = 0.0201, AA vs GG) in the Northern Italy cohort by multivariate analysis adjusted for BCLC stage, ECOG-PS, diabetes and AHT. The value of this genetic marker was externally validated in the cohort combining the BCLC1, BCLC2 and Naples cohorts [HR = 3.12 (95%CI: 1.2-8.14), P value = 0.0199, AGT2 (rs4762) AA vs AG genotype and HR = 2.73 (95%CI: 1.18-6.32) P value = 0.0188, AGT2 (rs4762) AA vs GG genotype]. None of the other gene variants tested were found to be associated with the risk of DAE development.

CONCLUSION

DAE development in HCC patients receiving TKIs could be explained by the AGT2 (rs4762) gene variant. If validated in other anti-oncogenic treatments, it might be considered a good prognosis marker.

Personalizing treatment in end-stage kidney disease: deciding between hemodiafiltration and hemodialysis based on individualized treatment effect prediction

Background

Previous studies suggest that hemodiafiltration reduces mortality compared to hemodialysis in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), but controversy surrounding its benefits remain and it is unclear to what extent individual patients benefit from hemodiafiltration. This study aimed to develop and validate a treatment effect prediction model to determine which patients would benefit most from hemodiafiltration compared to hemodialysis in terms of all-cause mortality.

Methods

Individual participant data from four randomized controlled trials comparing hemodiafiltration with hemodialysis on mortality were used to derive a Royston-Parmar model for prediction of absolute treatment effect of hemodiafiltration based on pre-specified patient and disease characteristics. Validation of the model was performed using internal-external cross validation.

Results

The median predicted survival benefit was 44 (Q1-Q3: 44–46) days for every year of treatment with hemodiafiltration compared to hemodialysis. The median survival benefit with hemodiafiltration ranged from 2 to 48 months. Patients who benefited most from hemodiafiltration were younger, less likely to have diabetes or a cardiovascular history and had higher serum creatinine and albumin levels. Internal-external cross validation showed adequate discrimination and calibration.

Conclusion

Although overall mortality is reduced by hemodiafiltration compared to hemodialysis in ESKD patients, the absolute survival benefit can vary greatly between individuals. Our results indicate that the effects of hemodiafiltration on survival can be predicted using a combination of readily available patient and disease characteristics, which could guide shared decision-making.

Predictive Models for Forecasting Public Health Scenarios: Practical Experiences Applied during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: Forecasting the behavior of epidemic outbreaks is vital in public health. This makes it possible to anticipate the planning and organization of the health system, as well as possible restrictive or preventive measures. During the COVID-19 pandemic, this need for prediction has been crucial. This paper attempts to characterize the alternative models that were applied in the first wave of this pandemic context, trying to shed light that could help to understand them for future practical applications. Methods: A systematic literature search was performed in standardized bibliographic repertoires, using keywords and Boolean operators to refine the findings, and selecting articles according to the main PRISMA 2020 statement recommendations. Results: After identifying models used throughout the first wave of this pandemic (between March and June 2020), we begin by examining standard data-driven epidemiological models, including studies applying models such as SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered), SQUIDER, SEIR, time-dependent SIR, and other alternatives. For data-driven methods, we identify experiences using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), evolutionary genetic programming machine learning, short-term memory (LSTM), and global epidemic and mobility models. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to intensive and evolving use of alternative infectious disease prediction models. At this point it is not easy to decide which prediction method is the best in a generic way. Moreover, although models such as the LSTM emerge as remarkably versatile and useful, the practical applicability of the alternatives depends on the specific context of the underlying variable and on the information of the target to be prioritized. In addition, the robustness of the assessment is conditioned by heterogeneity in the quality of information sources and differences in the characteristics of disease control interventions. Further comprehensive comparison of the performance of models in comparable situations, assessing their predictive validity, is needed. This will help determine the most reliable and practical methods for application in future outbreaks and eventual pandemics.

Stigmatization is common in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and correlates with quality of life

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Stigmatization is a well-documented problem of some diseases. Perceived stigma is common in alcohol-related liver disease and hepatitis C, but little information exists on stigma in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Aim of the study was to investigate frequency and characteristics of perceived stigma among patients with NAFLD.

METHODS

One-hundred and ninety-seven patients seen at the liver clinic were included: a study group of 144 patients with NAFLD, 50 with cirrhosis (34 compensated, 16 decompensated), and a control group of 53 patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected. Quality-of-life was assessed by chronic liver disease questionnaire (CLDQ). Perceived stigma was assessed using a specific questionnaire for patients with liver diseases categorized in 4 domains: stereotypes, discrimination, shame, and social isolation.

RESULTS

Perceived stigma was common in patients with NAFLD (99 patients, 69%) and affected all 4 domains assessed. The frequency was slightly higher, yet not significant, in patients with NAFLD cirrhosis vs those without (72% vs 67%, respectively; p = 0.576). In patients without cirrhosis perceived stigma was unrelated to stage of disease, since frequency was similar in patients with no or mild fibrosis compared to those with moderate/severe fibrosis (66% vs 68%, respectively). There were no differences in perceived stigma between patients with compensated cirrhosis and these with decompensated cirrhosis. Among patients with cirrhosis, stigmatization was more common in alcohol-related vs NAFLD-cirrhosis, yet differences were only significant in two domains. In patients with NAFLD, perceived stigma correlated with poor quality-of-life, but not with demographic or clinical variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Perceived stigmatization is common among patients with NAFLD independently of disease stage, is associated with impaired quality-of-life, and may be responsible for stereotypes, discrimination, shame, and social isolation, which may affect human and social rights of affected patients.

CARE Score on Chest Radiograph at Diagnosis Predicts Early and Late Outcomes Among Lung Transplant Patients with COVID-19

Purpose

To assess the ability of an objective radiographic scoring system to predict outcomes among lung transplant (LT) patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Methods

We included all LT patients diagnosed with COVID-19 during a one-year period (March 2020 to Feb 2021; n=54; median age: 60, 20-73 years; M:F 37:17) in our program. Patient characteristics and laboratory values during the acute illness were reviewed. Chest radiographs at time of COVID-19 diagnosis were scored by extent of ground-glass opacity and consolidation using the CARE score (0-18 for each lung). The CARE score was calculated using only the allograft in single LT and the average of both lungs in bilateral LT. Primary outcome was six-month survival after COVID-19. Hospital complications and one-month survival were secondary outcomes.

Results

A minority of patients had a clear allograft (CARE=0, n=12, 22.2%) at presentation. The median score was 2 (interquartile range 0.5-4.625), indicating mild abnormalities. Demographics, underlying diagnosis, comorbidities, symptoms, and spirometry changes were not associated with the baseline CARE score. Baseline CARE score >5 was strongly associated with development of respiratory failure (91.7% vs 35.7%; OR, 95% CI: 19.8, 2.3-168.7; p=0.001), ICU admission (p<0.001), need for ventilator support (p<0.001), and one-month mortality (41.7% vs 2.4%; OR, 95% CI: 29.4, 2.96-333.3; p=0.001). Overall six-month survival was 81.5%. The CARE score was significantly higher among non-survivors (7.7±4.1 vs 2.2±2.7; p=0.002). Patients with a CARE score>5 at diagnosis were significantly less likely to survive at six-month follow-up (41.7%.vs 92.3%; p<0.001). The CARE score had an excellent area under the curve (86.8%, 74.4%-99.2%; p<0.001) on the Receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting six-month survival after COVID-19.

Conclusion

The CARE score at time of COVID-19 diagnosis provides useful prognostic information among patients with LT.

Liver cancer risk after HCV cure in patients with advanced liver disease without non-characterized nodules

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Recognition of non-characterized liver nodules (NCLN) prior to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) is associated with increased hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in patients with HCV. The risk of HCC has not been defined in F3/F4 patients in whom NCLN have been ruled-out before starting DAAs and at sustained virological response (SVR). This study aimed to estimate HCC incidence in this population.

METHODS

We performed a prospective study including HCV-infected patients with F3/F4 fibrosis, without a history of HCC, and who achieved SVR after DAAs. Patients were only included if they had undergone ultrasound imaging that excluded the presence of HCC/NCLN within 30 days after SVR. All patients were evaluated every 6 months until developing primary liver cancer, death or withdrawal of informed consent. HCC incidence was expressed per 100 patient-years (/100PY). Adherence to screening program was calculated every 6 months for the first 48 months.

RESULTS

A total of 185 patients (63/122, F3/F4) were included. Among those with cirrhosis, 92% were Child-Pugh A and 42.7% had clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). Albumin-bilirubin score was 1 in 84.9% and 2 in 15.1% of patients, respectively. The median clinical and radiologic follow-up was 52.4 months and 48 months, respectively. Ten patients developed HCC: HCC incidence was 1.46/100PY (95% CI 0.79-2.71) in the whole cohort, 2.24/100PY (95% CI 1.21-4.17) in F4 only and 3.63/100PY (95% CI 1.95-6.74) in patients with CSPH. No HCC was registered in patients with F3. Median time between SVR and HCC occurrence was 28.1 months; 12 non-primary liver cancers were also identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with cirrhosis without NCLN at SVR remain at risk of HCC development. The absence of HCC in patients with F3 reinforces their marginal cancer risk, but prospective studies are needed to exclude them from screening programs.

LAY SUMMARY

Patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, without non-characterized liver nodules at sustained virologic response, remain at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma despite viral cure. However, the cancer risk after successful direct-acting antiviral treatment is marginal in patients with F3 fibrosis without non-characterized liver nodules. If confirmed in larger prospective studies, current screening recommendations may need to be revisited in this group of patients.

Effect of Intra-arterial Alteplase vs Placebo Following Successful Thrombectomy on Functional Outcomes in Patients With Large Vessel Occlusion Acute Ischemic Stroke: The CHOICE Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

It is estimated that only 27% of patients with acute ischemic stroke and large vessel occlusion who undergo successful reperfusion after mechanical thrombectomy are disability free at 90 days. An incomplete microcirculatory reperfusion might contribute to these suboptimal clinical benefits.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether treatment with adjunct intra-arterial alteplase after thrombectomy improves outcomes following reperfusion.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Phase 2b randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial performed from December 2018 through May 2021 in 7 stroke centers in Catalonia, Spain. The study included 121 patients with large vessel occlusion acute ischemic stroke treated with thrombectomy within 24 hours after stroke onset and with an expanded Treatment in Cerebral Ischemia angiographic score of 2b50 to 3.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomized to receive intra-arterial alteplase (0.225 mg/kg; maximum dose, 22.5 mg) infused over 15 to 30 minutes (n = 61) or placebo (n = 52).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was the difference in proportion of patients achieving a score of 0 or 1 on the 90-day modified Rankin Scale (range, 0 [no symptoms] to 6 [death]) in all patients treated as randomized. Safety outcomes included rate of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and death.

RESULTS

The study was terminated early for inability to maintain placebo availability and enrollment rate because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Of 1825 patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with thrombectomy at the 7 study sites, 748 (41%) patients fulfilled the angiographic criteria, 121 (7%) patients were randomized (mean age, 70.6 [SD, 13.7] years; 57 women [47%]), and 113 (6%) were treated as randomized. The proportion of participants with a modified Rankin Scale score of 0 or 1 at 90 days was 59.0% (36/61) with alteplase and 40.4% (21/52) with placebo (adjusted risk difference, 18.4%; 95% CI, 0.3%-36.4%; P = .047). The proportion of patients with symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage within 24 hours was 0% with alteplase and 3.8% with placebo (risk difference, -3.8%; 95% CI, -13.2% to 2.5%). Ninety-day mortality was 8% with alteplase and 15% with placebo (risk difference, -7.2%; 95% CI, -19.2% to 4.8%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients with large vessel occlusion acute ischemic stroke and successful reperfusion following thrombectomy, the use of adjunct intra-arterial alteplase compared with placebo resulted in a greater likelihood of excellent neurological outcome at 90 days. However, because of study limitations, these findings should be interpreted as preliminary and require replication.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03876119; EudraCT Number: 2018-002195-40.

Hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after direct-acting antiviral therapy: an individual patient data meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

The benefit of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) against HCV following successful treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. This meta-analysis of individual patient data assessed HCC recurrence risk following DAA administration.

DESIGN

We pooled the data of 977 consecutive patients from 21 studies of HCV-related cirrhosis and HCC, who achieved complete radiological response after surgical/locoregional treatments and received DAAs (DAA group). Recurrence or death risk was expressed as HCC recurrence or death per 100 person-years (100PY). Propensity score-matched patients from the ITA.LI.CA. cohort (n=328) served as DAA-unexposed controls (no-DAA group). Risk factors for HCC recurrence were identified using random-effects Poisson.

RESULTS

Recurrence rate and death risk per 100PY in DAA-treated patients were 20 (95% CI 13.9 to 29.8, I²=74.6%) and 5.7 (2.5 to 15.3, I²=54.3), respectively. Predictive factors for recurrence were alpha-fetoprotein logarithm (relative risk (RR)=1.11, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.19; p=0.01, per 1 log of ng/mL), HCC recurrence history pre-DAA initiation (RR=1.11, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.16; p<0.001), performance status (2 vs 0, RR=4.35, 95% CI 1.54 to 11.11; 2 vs 1, RR=3.7, 95% CI 1.3 to 11.11; p=0.01) and tumour burden pre-HCC treatment (multifocal vs solitary nodule, RR=1.75, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.43; p<0.001). No significant difference was observed in RR between the DAA-exposed and DAA-unexposed groups in propensity score-matched patients (RR=0.64, 95% CI 0.37 to 1.1; p=0.1).

CONCLUSION

Effects of DAA exposure on HCC recurrence risk remain inconclusive. Active clinical and radiological follow-up of patients with HCC after HCV eradication with DAA is justified.

Increased Circulating Levels of Growth Differentiation Factor 15 in Association with Metabolic Disorders in People Living with HIV Receiving Combined Antiretroviral Therapy

Objective: People living with HIV (PLWH) have an increased cardiovascular risk (CVR) owing to dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome, and HIV/combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)-associated lipodystrophy (HALS). Atherosclerosis and inflammation are related to growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF15). The relationship between metabolic disturbances, HALS, and CVR with GDF15 in PLWH is not known. Research design and methods: Circulating GDF15 levels in 152 PLWH (with HALS = 60, without HALS = 43, cART-naïve = 49) and 34 healthy controls were assessed in a cross-sectional study. Correlations with lipids, glucose homeostasis, fat distribution, and CVR were explored. Results: PLWH had increased circulating GDF15 levels relative to controls. The increase was the largest in cART-treated PLWH. Age, homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance 1 (HOMA1-IR), HALS, dyslipidemia, C-reactive protein, and CVR estimated with the Framingham score correlated with GDF15 levels. The GDF15-Framingham correlation was lost after age adjustment. No correlation was found between GDF15 and the D:A:D Data Collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) score estimated CVR. CVR independent predictors were patient group (naïve, HALS−, and HALS+) and cumulated protease inhibitor or nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor exposure. Conclusions: PLWH, especially when cART-treated, has increased GDF15 levels—this increase is associated with dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome, HALS, and inflammation-related parameters. GDF15 is unassociated with CVR when age-adjusted.

Urinary L-FABP is a promising prognostic biomarker of ACLF and mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Decompensated cirrhosis (DC) is associated with high mortality, mainly owing to the development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Identifying the patients with DC who are at high risk of mortality and ACLF development is an unmet clinical need. Liver fatty acid-binding protein (L-FABP) is expressed in several organs and correlates with liver and systemic inflammation. Herein, we aimed to assess the prognostic value of L-FABP in patients with DC.

METHODS

A prospective series of 444 patients hospitalized for DC was divided into 2 cohorts: study cohort (305 patients) and validation cohort (139 patients). L-FABP was measured in urine and plasma samples collected at admission. Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) was also measured in urine samples for comparison.

RESULTS

Urine but not plasma L-FABP correlated with 3-month survival on univariate analysis. On multivariate analysis, urine L-FABP and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-Na were the only independent predictors of prognosis. Urine L-FABP levels were higher in patients with ACLF than in those without and also predicted the development of ACLF, together with MELD-Na, during follow-up. In patients with ACLF, urine L-FABP correlated with liver, coagulation, and circulatory failure. Urine L-FABP levels were also increased in patients with acute kidney injury, particularly in those with acute tubular necrosis. The ability of urinary L-FABP to predict survival and ACLF development was confirmed in the validation cohort. Urine NGAL predicted outcome on univariate but not multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Urinary L-FABP levels are independently associated with the 3-month clinical course in patients with DC, in terms of mortality and ACLF development. Urinary L-FABP is a promising prognostic biomarker for patients with DC.

LAY SUMMARY

Increased levels of liver fatty acid-binding protein (L-FABP), a protein related to lipid metabolism, have been associated with liver-related diseases. The present study analyzed urinary L-FABP levels in 2 independent groups of patients with decompensated cirrhosis and showed that higher urinary L-FABP levels correlated with increased mortality and risk of acute-on-chronic liver failure development. Therefore, urinary L-FABP levels could be useful as a new tool to predict complications in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

Pancreatic steatosis: A frequent finding in a Chilean population

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Pancreatic steatosis is an incidental radiologic finding in asymptomatic patients, and its clinical importance is unclear. Primary aim: to study the prevalence of pancreatic steatosis (PS) in consecutive patients registered at our hospital, that underwent computed axial tomography (CAT) scanning of the abdomen and pelvis, excluding known pancreatic diseases. Secondary aim: to review the association of PS with the demographic and clinical data of the patients, as well as with hepatic steatosis (HS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An observational study was conducted on adult patients that had CAT scans of the abdomen and pelvis.

DEFINITIONS

a) tissue density was measured in Hounsfield units (HU) in five 1 cm² areas of the pancreas, three areas of the spleen, and in segments VI and VII of the liver; b) fatty pancreas: a difference < -10 HU between the mean pancreas and mean spleen densities; and c) fatty liver: density < 40 HU. We registered the epidemiologic and laboratory data of the patients. The association of those factors with the presence of PS was analyzed using SPSS version 24.0 software, and statistical significance was set at a p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Of the 203 patients, PS was found in 61 (30%). The patients with PS were significantly older and had a higher body mass index. We found no significant association with the rest of the parameters studied, nor with HS (55 patients). None of the patients had symptoms attributable to a disease of the exocrine pancreas.

CONCLUSIONS

Fatty infiltration of the pancreas is a frequent finding in CAT scans, and its clinical importance is unclear. Aging of the population and the increase in obesity underline the need for future studies on PS.

Comparative analysis of tools to predict rapid progression in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease

Background

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the most common genetic kidney disease and shows a wide phenotype. Only patients with rapid progression (RP) are included in clinical trials or are approved to receive disease-modifying drugs. This study aims at comparing different available predictive tools in ADPKD with the Mayo classification (MC) identification of rapid progressors based on high total kidney volume (TKV) according to age.

Methods

A total of 164 ADPKD patients were recruited retrospectively from a single centre. The performance of diverse tools to identify RP defined as being in MC categories 1C–1E was assessed.

Results

A total of 118 patients were MC 1C–1E. The algorithm developed by the European Renal Association–European Dialysis and Transplant Association Working Group on Inherited Kidney Disorders/European Renal Best Practice had a low sensitivity in identifying MC 1C–1E. The sensitivity and specificity of TKV to predict RP depend on the cut-off used. A kidney length of >16.5 cm before age 45 years has high specificity but low sensitivity. Assessing the MC by ultrasonography had high levels of agreement with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data, especially for 1A, 1D and 1E. The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline was very sensitive but had low specificity. In contrast, the Predicting Renal Outcome in Polycystic Kidney Disease (PROPKD) score was very specific but had poor sensitivity. Having hypertension before 35 years of age is a good clinical predictor of MC 1C–1E. Family history can be of help in suggesting RP, but by itself it lacks sufficient sensitivity and specificity.

Conclusions

The MC by ultrasonography could be an option in hospitals with limited access to MRI as it performs well generally, and especially at the extremes of the MC, i.e. classes 1A, 1D and 1E. The eGFR decline is sensitive but not very specific when compared with the MC, whereas the PROPKD score is very specific but has low sensitivity. Integrating the different tools currently available to determine RP should facilitate the identification of rapid progressors among patients with ADPKD.

Risk of non-tumoural portal vein thrombosis in patients with HCV-induced cirrhosis after sustained virological response

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Sustained virological response (SVR) to direct-acting antivirals ameliorates portal hypertension, improves hepatic function and may reverse the procoagulant state observed in patients with cirrhosis. However, an unexpected incidence of portal vein thrombosis (PVT) immediately after antiviral therapy has recently been reported. Therefore, we analysed the long-term impact of SVR on the development of non-tumoural PVT.

METHODS

Our study comprised of two well-characterized prospective cohorts (hepatitis C virus '(HCV)-Cured': n = 354/'HCV-Active': n = 179) of patients with HCV cirrhosis who underwent standardized ultrasound surveillance. In the main analysis, the event of interest was de novo non-tumoural PVT and events known to modify its natural history (orthotopic liver transplantation, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt, death, tumoural PVT and anticoagulation) were considered as competing risk. Adjusted models were built using propensity scores for baseline covariates. Moreover, predictive factors were investigated by conventional multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Ten (2.8%) patients in the 'HCV-Cured' cohort developed a non-tumoural PVT during a median follow-up of 37.1 months, while 8 (4.5%) patients in the 'HCV-Active' cohort were diagnosed with non-tumoural PVT during a median follow-up of 42.2 months. High Child-Pugh score was the only independent risk factor for non-tumoural PVT development and stage A patients were at low risk. Importantly, HCV cure did not decrease the risk of non-tumoural PVT in inverse probability of treatment-weighted (IPTW) analysis (subdistribution hazard ratio: 1.31 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.43-3.97); P = .635). In contrast, SVR was associated with a substantial reduction in mortality (IPTW-adjusted sHR: 0.453 [95% CI: 0.287-0.715]; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of non-tumoural PVT persists after HCV cure in patients with cirrhosis, despite improving survival. Even after aetiological cure, severity of liver disease remains the main determinant of non-tumoural PVT development.

First-Line Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor-Based Sequential Therapies for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Rationale for Future Trials

INTRODUCTION

Atezolizumab (ATEZO) plus bevacizumab (BEVA) represents the new standard of care for the treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the choice of the second-line treatment after the failure of immunotherapy-based first-line remains elusive. Taking into account the weaknesses of the available evidence, we developed a simulation model based on available phase III randomized clinical trials (RCTs) to identify optimal risk/benefit sequential strategies.

METHODS

A Markov model was built to estimate the overall survival (OS) of sequential first- and second-line systemic treatments. Sequences starting with first-line ATEZO plus BEVA followed by 5 second-line treatments (sorafenib [SORA], lenvatinib [LENVA], regorafenib, cabozantinib, and ramucirumab) were compared. The probability of transition between states (initial treatment, cancer progression, and death) was derived from RCTs. Life-year gained (LYG) was the main outcome. Rates of severe adverse events (SAEs) (≥ grade 3) were calculated. The incremental safety-effectiveness ratio (ISER) was calculated as the difference in probability of SAEs divided by LYG between the 2 most effective sequences.

RESULTS

ATEZO plus BEVA followed by LENVA (median OS, 24 months) or SORA (median OS, 23 months) was the most effective sequence, producing a LYG of 0.50 and 0.42 year, respectively. ATEZO plus BEVA followed by SORA was the safest sequence (SAEs 63%). At a willingness-to-risk threshold of 10% of SAEs for LYG, ATEZO plus BEVA followed by second-line SORA was favored in 72% of cases, while at a threshold of 30% of SAEs for LYG, ATEZO plus BEVA followed by second-line LENVA was favored in 69% of cases.

CONCLUSION

Our simulation model provides a strong rationale to support ongoing trials evaluating second-line tyrosine-kinase inhibitors after first-line ATEZO plus BEVA. Future evidence from ongoing RCTs and prospective real-world studies are needed to prove the net health benefit of sequential treatment options for advanced HCC.

Patients Undergoing Bariatric Surgery: a Special Risk Group for Lifestyle, Emotional and Behavioral Adaptations During the COVID-19 Lockdown. Lessons from the First Wave

Objectives

To determine how the COVID-19 lockdown influenced the lifestyle, eating behavior, use of substances, mental health, and weight in patients who had undergone bariatric surgery (BS) and explore the self-perception of one’s own health and fears related to COVID-19.

Methods

We performed a cross-sectional exploratory study in obesity patients who had undergone BS surgery > 1 year previously in a university hospital. Assessment was performed 40 days after initiating lockdown and included 2 periods: from April 24 until May 8 and during the initial de-escalation period: from May 9 until 22, 2020. A structured telephone interview and an online survey were administered.

Results

One hundred eighty-eight patients were interviewed; 156 also responded to the online survey (77% females, mean age 53.46 ± 10.48 years, mean follow-up 5.71 ± 4.30 years). Dietary habits were affected in 72% of the participants, with 15% reporting better diet planning; 83.5% reported having more sedentary behaviors; 27% and 36% showed depression and anxiety, respectively; and 45% of participants reported bad sleep quality. In relation to changes in the use of any substance, the use increased in the majority of patients who were previously users. Self-perception of one’s own health and fears related to COVID-19 were only moderate. Finally, emotional eating and time since BS were statistically significant risk factors for predicting weight gain.

Conclusions

Lockdown during COVID-19 pandemic negatively influenced the lifestyle, mental health, substance use, and weight in BS patients. These alterations were somewhat similar to those observed in the general population but more severe and with important clinical implications.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11695-021-05792-1.

Effectiveness of Thrombectomy in Stroke According to Baseline Prognostic Factors: Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting Analysis of a Population-Based Registry

Background and Purpose

 In real-world practice, the benefit of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) is uncertain in stroke patients with very favorable or poor prognostic profiles at baseline. We studied the effectiveness of MT versus medical treatment stratifying by different baseline prognostic factors.

Methods

 Retrospective analysis of 2,588 patients with an ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion nested in the population-based registry of stroke code activations in Catalonia from January 2017 to June 2019. The effect of MT on good functional outcome (modified Rankin Score ≤2) and survival at 3 months was studied using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analysis in three pre-defined baseline prognostic groups: poor (if pre-stroke disability, age >85 years, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS] >25, time from onset >6 hours, Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score <6, proximal vertebrobasilar occlusion, supratherapeutic international normalized ratio >3), good (if NIHSS <6 or distal occlusion, in the absence of poor prognostic factors), or reference (not meeting other groups’ criteria).

Results

 Patients receiving MT (n=1,996, 77%) were younger, had less pre-stroke disability, and received systemic thrombolysis less frequently. These differences were balanced after the IPTW stratified by prognosis. MT was associated with good functional outcome in the reference (odds ratio [OR], 2.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0 to 4.4), and especially in the poor baseline prognostic stratum (OR, 3.9; 95% CI, 2.6 to 5.9), but not in the good prognostic stratum. MT was associated with survival only in the poor prognostic stratum (OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 2.0 to 3.3).

Conclusions

 Despite their worse overall outcomes, the impact of thrombectomy over medical management was more substantial in patients with poorer baseline prognostic factors than patients with good prognostic factors.

A multicenter randomized open-label clinical trial for convalescent plasma in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia

BACKGROUNDPassive immunotherapy with convalescent plasma (CP) is a potential treatment for COVID-19. Evidence from controlled clinical trials is inconclusive.METHODSWe conducted a randomized, open-label, controlled clinical trial at 27 hospitals in Spain. Patients had to be admitted for COVID-19 pneumonia within 7 days from symptom onset and not on mechanical ventilation or high-flow oxygen devices. Patients were randomized 1:1 to treatment with CP in addition to standard of care (SOC) or to the control arm receiving only SOC. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients in categories 5 (noninvasive ventilation or high-flow oxygen), 6 (invasive mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [ECMO]), or 7 (death) at 14 days. Primary analysis was performed in the intention-to-treat population.RESULTSBetween April 4, 2020, and February 5, 2021, 350 patients were randomly assigned to either CP (n = 179) or SOC (n = 171). At 14 days, proportion of patients in categories 5, 6, or 7 was 11.7% in the CP group versus 16.4% in the control group (P = 0.205). The difference was greater at 28 days, with 8.4% of patients in categories 5-7 in the CP group versus 17.0% in the control group (P = 0.021). The difference in overall survival did not reach statistical significance (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.19-1.14, log-rank P = 0.087).CONCLUSIONCP showed a significant benefit in preventing progression to noninvasive ventilation or high-flow oxygen, invasive mechanical ventilation or ECMO, or death at 28 days. The effect on the predefined primary endpoint at 14 days and the effect on overall survival were not statistically significant.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicaltrials.gov, NCT04345523.FUNDINGGovernment of Spain, Instituto de Salud Carlos III.

Pedestrian flow in two dimensions: Optimal psychological stress leads to less evacuation time and decongestion

Collective motion is an innate ability of all living systems, which depends on physiological and psychosocial factors in the case of humans. Such a collective organization is becoming of great interest in collective motion in human crowds. Using a cellular automaton (CA) simulation model, we demonstrate that emergency egress from a two-dimensional corridor with optimal stress leads to less evacuation time and efficient mass evacuations. We study how three types of stress (i.e., mild stress, optimal stress, and anxiety) described in the literature have a significant impact on the collective dynamics. We found that low-stress levels could decrease the evacuation time in an entire occupied room since agents choose alternative routes rather than the shortest path to the exit and display cooperative behavior. Therefore, the combination of mild and optimal stress can lead to efficient evacuations. Also CA simulations may be used to find safer and more efficient ways to conduct mass evacuation procedures.

Bacterial infections adversely influence the risk of decompensation and survival in compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The prognosis of compensated cirrhosis is good until decompensation. In decompensated cirrhosis, bacterial infections (BIs) are common and increase the risk of death. The incidence and prognostic implications of BIs in compensated cirrhosis are less-well characterized. This study aimed to assess whether BIs influence the risk of decompensation and survival in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

This is a cohort study nested to the PREDESCI study, a double-blind, multicenter, randomized controlled trial designed to assess whether β-blockers could prevent decompensation of cirrhosis. Patients with compensated cirrhosis and hepatic venous pressure gradient ≥10 mmHg were included. Development of BIs during follow-up was prospectively registered. Using a competing-risk time-dependent regression analysis, we investigated whether BIs affect the risk of decompensation and survival. Decompensation was defined as development of ascites, bleeding or overt encephalopathy.

RESULTS

A total of 201 patients were randomized and followed for a median of 36 months (IQR 24-47 months); 34 patients (17%) developed BIs, which occurred before decompensation in 33 cases, and 29 (14%) developed ascites. Respiratory and urinary tract infections were the most frequent BIs. Decompensation occurred in 26% patients with BIs vs. 16% without BIs. Patients with BIs were at higher risk of decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 2.93; 95% CI 1.02-8.42; p = 0.047) and of developing ascites (SHR 3.55; 95% CI 1.21-10.47; p = 0.022) than those without BIs. Risk of death was also higher in patients with BIs (subdistribution HR 6.93; 95% CI 2.64-18.18; p <0.001), although decompensation occurred before death in 71% of such cases.

CONCLUSIONS

BIs have a marked impact on the natural history of compensated cirrhosis, significantly increasing the risk of decompensation, mainly that of ascites, and increasing the risk of death, which usually occurs after decompensation. Our results suggest that BIs may constitute a target to prevent decompensation.

LAY SUMMARY

It is widely known that bacterial infections are common and increase the mortality risk in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. However, the relevance of bacterial infections in compensated cirrhosis has not been well studied. This study shows that in patients with compensated cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension, bacterial infections occur as frequently as the development of ascites, which is the most frequent decompensating event. Bacterial infections increase the risk of progression to decompensation, mainly by increasing the risk of ascites, and also increase the risk of death, which usually occurs after decompensation. CLINICALTRIALS.

GOV IDENTIFIER

NCT01059396.

Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A meta-analysis and meta-regression

Objective

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) may be a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the extent of this association still needs to be addressed. Pooled-incidence rates of HCC across the disease spectrum of NAFLD have never been estimated by meta-analysis.

Methods

In this systematic review, we searched Web of Science, Embase, Pubmed, and the Cochrane library from January 1st, 1950 through July 30th, 2020. We included studies reporting on HCC incidence in patients with NAFLD. The main outcomes were pooled HCC incidences in patients with NAFLD at distinct severity stages. Summary estimates were calculated with random-effects models. Sensitivity analyses and meta-regression analyses were carried out to address heterogeneity. The protocol for this review was registered in Prospero (CRD42018092861).

Results

Eighteen studies, with a total of 470,404 patients were included. In patients with NAFLD at a stage earlier than liver cirrhosis, HCC incidence was of 0.03 per 100 person-years (PYs) (95% confidence interval 0.01-0.07, I2=98%). This rate rose to 3.78 per 100PYs (2.47-5.78, I2=93%) when considering studies that only included patients with liver cirrhosis. Among the latter patients, those undergoing regular HCC screening displayed an incidence of 4.62 per 100PYs (2.77-7.72, I2= 77%).

Conclusion

Patients with NAFLD-related liver cirrhosis have a risk of developing HCC similar to that reported for patients with cirrhosis from other etiologies. Evidence documenting the risk in patients with NASH or simple steatosis is limited, but HCC incidence in these populations may lie below thresholds used to recommend HCC screening. Well-designed prospective studies in these subsets of patients are needed.

Clinical and Genetic Features of Autosomal Dominant Alport Syndrome: A Cohort Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Alport syndrome is a common genetic kidney disease accounting for approximately 2% of patients receiving kidney replacement therapy (KRT). It is caused by pathogenic variants in the gene COL4A3, COL4A4, or COL4A5. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical and genetic spectrum of patients with autosomal dominant Alport syndrome (ADAS).

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

82 families (252 patients) with ADAS were studied. Clinical, genetic, laboratory, and pathology data were collected.

OBSERVATIONS

A pathogenic DNA variant in COL4A3 was identified in 107 patients (35 families), whereas 133 harbored a pathogenic variant in COL4A4 (43 families). Digenic/complex inheritance was observed in 12 patients. Overall, the median kidney survival was 67 (95% CI, 58-73) years, without significant differences across sex (P=0.8), causative genes (P=0.6), or type of variant (P=0.9). Microhematuria was the most common kidney manifestation (92.1%), and extrarenal features were rare. Findings on kidney biopsies ranged from normal to focal segmental glomerulosclerosis. The slope of estimated glomerular filtration rate change was-1.46 (-1.66 to-1.26) mL/min/1.73m² per year for the overall group, with no significant differences between ADAS genes (P=0.2).

LIMITATIONS

The relatively small size of this series from a single country, potentially limiting generalizability.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with ADAS have a wide spectrum of clinical presentations, ranging from asymptomatic to kidney failure, a pattern not clearly related to the causative gene or type of variant. The diversity of ADAS phenotypes contributes to its underdiagnosis in clinical practice.

The probability of receiving a kidney transplantation in end-stage kidney disease patients who are treated with haemodiafiltration or haemodialysis: a pooled individual participant data from four randomised controlled trials

Background

Due to a critical shortage of available kidney grafts, most patients with Stage 5 Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD5) require bridging dialysis support. It remains unclear whether treatment by different dialysis modalities changes the selection and/or preparation of a potential transplant candidate. Therefore, we assessed whether the likelihood of receiving kidney transplant (both living or deceased kidney donors) differs between haemodialysis (HD) and online haemodiafiltration (HDF) in patients with CKD5D.

Methods

Individual participant data from four randomised controlled trials comparing online HDF with HD were used. Information on kidney transplant was obtained during follow-up. The likelihood of receiving a kidney transplant was compared between HD and HDF, and evaluated across different subgroups: age, sex, diabetes, history of cardiovascular disease, albumin, dialysis vintage, fistula, and level of convection volume standardized to body surface area. Hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), comparing the effect of online HDF versus HD on the likelihood of receiving a kidney transplant, were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models with a random effect for study.

Results

After a median follow-up of 2.5 years (Q1 to Q3: 1.9–3.0), 331 of the 1620 (20.4%) patients with CKD5D received a kidney transplant. This concerned 22% (n = 179) of patients who were treated with online HDF compared with 19% (n = 152) of patients who were treated with HD. No differences in the likelihood of undergoing a kidney transplant were found between the two dialysis modalities in both the crude analyse (HR: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.86–1.33) and adjusted analysis for age, sex, diabetes, cardiovascular history, albumin, and creatinine (HR: 1.15, 95%-CI: 0.92–1.44). There was no evidence for a differential effect across subgroups based on patient- and disease-characteristics nor in different categories of convection volumes.

Conclusions

Treatment with HD and HDF does not affect the selection and/or preparation of CKD5D patients for kidney transplant given that the likelihood of receiving a kidney transplant does not differ between the dialysis modalities. These finding persisted across a variety of subgroups differing in patient and disease characteristics and is not affected by the level of convection volume delivered during HDF treatment sessions.

Are Quality of Randomized Clinical Trials and ESMO-Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale Two Sides of the Same Coin, to Grade Recommendations for Drug Approval?

The approval of a new drug for cancer treatment by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) is based on positive, well-designed randomized phase III clinical trials (RCTs). However, not all of them are analyzed to support the recommendations. For this reason, there are different scales to quantify and evaluate the quality of RCTs and the magnitude of the clinical benefits of new drugs for treating solid tumors. In this review, we discuss the value of the progression-free survival (PFS) as an endpoint in RCTs and the concordance between it and the overall survival (OS) as a measure of the quality of clinical trial designs. We summarize and analyze the different scales to evaluate the clinical benefits of new drugs such as the The American Society of Clinical Oncology value framework (ASCO-VF-NHB16) and European Society for Medical Oncology Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (ESMO-MCBS) and the concordance between them, focusing on metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). We propose several definitions that would help to evaluate the quality of RCT, the magnitude of clinical benefit and the appropriate approval of new drugs in oncology.

Effects of Early Placement of Transjugular Portosystemic Shunts in Patients With High-Risk Acute Variceal Bleeding: a Meta-analysis of Individual Patient Data

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Compared with drugs plus endoscopy, placement of transjugular portosystemic shunt within 72 hours of admission to the hospital (early or preventive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt [TIPS], also called preemptive TIPS) increases the proportion of high-risk patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding who survive for 1 year. However, the benefit of preemptive TIPS is less clear for patients with a Child-Pugh score of B and active bleeding (CP-B+AB). We performed an individual data meta-analysis to assess the efficacy of preemptive TIPS in these patients and identify factors associated with reduced survival of patients receiving preemptive TIPS.

METHODS

We searched publication databases for randomized controlled trials and observational studies comparing the effects of preemptive TIPS versus endoscopy plus nonselective beta-blockers in the specific population of high-risk patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding (CP-B+AB or Child-Pugh C, below 14 points), through December 31, 2019. We performed a meta-analysis of data from 7 studies (3 randomized controlled trials and 4 observational studies), comprising 1327 patients (310 received preemptive TIPS and 1017 received drugs plus endoscopy). We built adjusted models to evaluate risk using propensity score for baseline covariates. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to assess the factors associated with survival time. The primary endpoint was effects of preemptive TIPS versus drugs plus endoscopy on 1-year survival in the overall population as well as CP-B+AB and Child-Pugh C patients.

RESULTS

Overall, preemptive TIPS significantly increased the proportion of high-risk patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding who survived for 1 year, compared with drugs plus endoscopy (hazard ratio [HR] 0.443; 95% CI 0.323-0.607; P < .001). This effect was observed in CP-B+AB patients (HR 0.524; 95% CI 0.307-0.896; P = .018) and in patients with Child-Pugh C scores below 14 points (HR 0.374; 95% CI 0.253-0.553; P < .001). Preemptive TIPS significantly improved control of bleeding and ascites without increasing risk of hepatic encephalopathy in Child-Pugh C and CP-B+AB patients, compared with drugs plus endoscopy. Cox analysis of patients who received preemptive TIPS showed that patients could be classified into 3 categories for risk of death, based on age, serum level of creatinine, and Child-Pugh score. In each of these risk categories, preemptive TIPS increased the proportion of patients who survived for 1 year, compared with drugs plus endoscopy.

CONCLUSIONS

In a meta-analysis of data from 1327 patients with cirrhosis, acute variceal bleeding, and Child-Pugh score between 10 and 13 points or CP-B+AB, preemptive TIPS increased the proportion who survived for 1 year, in both subgroups separately, compared with drugs plus endoscopy.

Effects of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and other antidepressant drugs on the risk of hip fracture: a case-control study in an elderly Mediterranean population

OBJECTIVES

To describe the association between exposure to different antidepressant drugs and hip fracture in an elderly Mediterranean population.

METHODS

Cases were all patients aged 50-95 years admitted to the emergency room of our hospital with hip fracture not related to a high intensity trauma during 2010. For each case, four controls were identified from primary care electronic medical records matched by age (±3 years), gender, date of consultation at the primary care centre (±1 month) and primary care centre. Pharmacological treatments received within the previous 5 years were retrieved from the prescription records. Crude and adjusted risks associated with exposures were calculated by conditional logistic regression. ORs were adjusted by matching variables and by significant risk factors identified in the bivariate analysis (prescription of ≥4 drugs, osteoporosis, diabetes mellitus and previous fracture).

RESULTS

136 cases and 544 controls were analysed. Adjusted OR (95% CI) for hip fracture associated with exposure to any antidepressants was 2.42 (1.24 to 4.73); for selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) it was 3.52 (1.67 to 7.41), for non-selective monoamine reuptake inhibitors 1.07 (0.18 to 6.46) and for other antidepressants 0.82 (0.27 to 2.48). Sertraline (OR 3.88 (1.15 to 13.09)) was the only active principle with significant adjusted risk. When only exposures >6 months were considered, significant risks persisted for SSRIs (OR 2.64 (1.10 to 6.37)).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study are coincident with other studies in which SSRIs, but not other types of antidepressants, are associated with an increased risk of hip fracture in our setting.