Routes to diagnosis for hepatocellular carcinoma patients: predictors and associations with treatment and mortality

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence has increased rapidly, and prognosis remains poor. We aimed to explore predictors of routes to diagnosis (RtD), and outcomes, in HCC cases.

METHODS

HCC cases diagnosed 2006-2017 were identified from the National Cancer Registration Dataset and linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and the RtD metric. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore associations between RtD, diagnosis year, 365-day mortality and receipt of potentially curative treatment.

RESULTS

23,555 HCC cases were identified; 36.1% via emergency presentation (EP), 30.2% GP referral (GP), 17.1% outpatient referral, 11.0% two-week wait and 4.6% other/unknown routes. Odds of 365-day mortality was >70% lower via GP or OP routes than EP, and odds of curative treatment 3-4 times higher. Further adjustment for cancer/cirrhosis stage attenuated the associations with curative treatment. People who were older, female, had alcohol-related liver disease, or were more deprived, were at increased risk of an EP. Over time, diagnoses via EP decreased, and via GP increased.

CONCLUSIONS

HCC RtD is an important predictor of outcomes. Continuing to reduce EP and increase GP and OP presentations, for example by identifying and regularly monitoring patients at higher risk of HCC, may improve stage at diagnosis and survival.

The future of International Classification of Diseases coding in steatotic liver disease: An expert panel Delphi consensus statement

BACKGROUND

Following the adoption of new nomenclature for steatotic liver disease, we aimed to build consensus on the use of International Classification of Diseases codes and recommendations for future research and advocacy.

METHODS

Through a two-stage Delphi process, a core group (n = 20) reviewed draft statements and recommendations (n = 6), indicating levels of agreement. Following revisions, this process was repeated with a large expert panel (n = 243) from 73 countries.

RESULTS

Consensus ranged from 88.8% to 96.9% (mean = 92.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

This global consensus statement provides guidance on harmonizing the International Classification of Diseases coding for steatotic liver disease and future directions to advance the field.

Quantifying the benefit of nonselective beta-blockers in the prevention of hepatic decompensation: A Bayesian reanalysis of the PREDESCI trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Beta-blockers have been studied for the prevention of variceal bleeding and, more recently, for the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Some uncertainties regarding the benefit of beta-blockers for the prevention of decompensation remain. Bayesian analyses enhance the interpretation of trials. The purpose of this study was to provide clinically meaningful estimates of both the probability and magnitude of the benefit of beta-blocker treatment across a range of patient types.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We undertook a Bayesian reanalysis of PREDESCI incorporating 3 priors (moderate neutral, moderate optimistic, and weak pessimistic). The probability of clinical benefit was assessed considering the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Microsimulation analyses were done to determine the magnitude of the benefit. In the Bayesian analysis, the probability that beta-blockers reduce all-cause decompensation was >0.93 for all priors. The Bayesian posterior hazard ratios (HR) for decompensation ranged from 0.50 (optimistic prior, 95% credible interval 0.27-0.93) to 0.70 (neutral prior, 95% credible interval 0.44-1.12). Exploring the benefit of treatment using microsimulation highlights substantial treatment benefits. For the neutral prior derived posterior HR and a 5% annual incidence of decompensation, at 10 years, an average of 497 decompensation-free years per 1000 patients were gained with treatment. In contrast, at 10 years 1639 years per 1000 patients were gained from the optimistic prior derived posterior HR and a 10% incidence of decompensation.

CONCLUSIONS

Beta-blocker treatment is associated with a high probability of clinical benefit. This likely translates to a substantial gain in decompensation-free life years at the population level.

Extra-hepatic morbidity and mortality in alcohol-related liver disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Alcohol use increases the risk of many conditions in addition to liver disease; patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) are therefore at risk from both extra-hepatic and hepatic disease.

AIMS

This review synthesises information about non-liver-related mortality in persons with ALD.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed to identify studies describing non-liver outcomes in ALD. Information about overall non-liver mortality was extracted from included studies and sub-categorised into major causes: cardiovascular disease (CVD), non-liver cancer and infection. Single-proportion meta-analysis was done to calculate incidence rates (events/1000 patient-years) and relative risks (RR) compared with control populations.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven studies describing 50 302 individuals with 155 820 patient-years of follow-up were included. Diabetes, CVD and obesity were highly prevalent amongst included patients (5.4%, 10.4% and 20.8% respectively). Outcomes varied across the spectrum of ALD: in alcohol-related fatty liver the rate of non-liver mortality was 43.4/1000 patient-years, whereas in alcoholic hepatitis the rate of non-liver mortality was 22.5/1000 patient-years. The risk of all studied outcomes was higher in ALD compared with control populations: The RR of death from CVD was 2.4 (1.6-3.8), from non-hepatic cancer 2.2 (1.6-2.9) and from infection 8.2 (4.7-14.3).

CONCLUSION

Persons with ALD are at high risk of death from non-liver causes such as cardiovascular disease and non-hepatic cancer.

Meta-analysis: Enhanced liver fibrosis test to identify hepatic fibrosis in chronic liver diseases

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with liver disease can be stratified for risk of liver-related ill health by degree of hepatic fibrosis. The Enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test was developed to quantify hepatic fibrosis non-invasively and is widely used. The objective of this review was to identify and synthesise the evidence on the diagnostic accuracy of the ELF test for staging of hepatic fibrosis.

APPROACH & RESULTS

Searches of PubMed and EMBASE were conducted between October 2020 and November 2021 to identify studies reporting the diagnostic accuracy of the ELF test compared to histology in liver disease patients. QUADAS-2 was used to assess risk of bias in each study. Meta-analysis using the multiple thresholds model described by Steinhauser S, Schumacher M, Rücker G. Modelling multiple thresholds in meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies. BMC Med. Res. Methodol. 2016;16. 10.1186/s12874-016-0196-1 allowed synthesis of 2 × 2 data at different cut-offs. Sixty-three studies were included in this review. These studies included 19,285 patients with or at risk of liver disease from viral hepatitis, Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease, Alcohol-related Liver Disease and other mixed chronic liver diseases. The prevalence of significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis was 47.5%, 39.2% and 4.4%, respectively. Cut-offs with maximal Youden index were generated with AUROC = 0.811 (95% CI: 0.736-0.870), 0.812 (95% CI: 0.758-0.856) and 0.810 (95% CI: 0.694-0.888) to detect significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis, respectively. Diagnostic accuracy of the ELF test varied between different liver diseases and cut-offs to detect each stage with 95% sensitivity or specificity were also generated.

CONCLUSIONS

Meta-analysis revealed considerable variability in the ability of ELF to stage fibrosis across disease aetiologies. Research has mostly focused on viral hepatitis and NAFLD. There is currently a lack of data on the value of the ELF test in Alcohol-related liver disease and patients in primary care settings.

The Natural History of Advanced Chronic Liver Disease Defined by Transient Elastography

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The clinical course of cirrhosis does not follow a predictable trajectory. Transient elastography (TE) is commonly used in clinical practice to diagnose liver fibrosis and increasingly to risk stratify patients. The aim of this study was to assess the natural history of advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) defined by TE using electronic health record (EHR) data in a multistate framework.

METHODS

TE data were collected between 2008 and 2019. Patients with a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) >10 kPa were included. Disease and procedure code information held in EHR was analyzed. Clinical events including decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and death were identified. Outcomes were described in a multistate model using flexible parametric survival methods including LSM and the albumin bilirubin (ALBI) score.

RESULTS

Three thousand and twenty eight patients were included. Median follow up was 3.1 years. LSM and ALBI were associated with the development of varices and decompensation, and ALBI, age, sex, and viral liver disease were associated with the development of HCC from the compensated state. The cumulative incidence of HCC before decompensation was low for patients with alcohol-related liver disease (3.8%) and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (1.3%) at 5 years after TE. Importantly, death was predicted to occur before decompensation or HCC in most cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver stiffness, ALBI score, and disease etiology are each associated with outcomes in a large contemporary cohort with ACLD. EHR data can be used to define clinical progression in these patients, facilitating large clinical effectiveness trials and cost-effectiveness analyses.

Cost of hepatocellular carcinoma to the national health service in England: a registry-based analysis

OBJECTIVE

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence in the UK trebled between 1997 and 2017. With increasing numbers requiring treatment, understanding the likely impact on healthcare budgets can inform service planning and commissioning. The aim of this analysis was to use existing registry data to describe the direct healthcare costs of current treatments for HCC and estimate the impact on National Health Service (NHS) budgets.

DESIGN

A retrospective data analysis based on the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service cancer registry informed a decision-analytic model for England comparing patients by cirrhosis compensation status and those on palliative or curative treatment pathways. Potential cost drivers were investigated by undertaking a series of one-way sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2016, 15 684 patients were diagnosed with HCC. The median cost per patient over 2 years was £9065 (IQR: £1965 to £20 491), 66% did not receive active therapy. The cost of HCC treatment for England over 5 years was estimated to be £245 million.

CONCLUSION

The National Cancer Registration Dataset and linked data sets have enabled a comprehensive analysis of the resource use and costs of secondary and tertiary healthcare for HCC, providing an overview of the economic impact to the NHS England of treating HCC.

Community pathways for the early detection and risk stratification of chronic liver disease: a narrative systematic review

Patients with chronic liver disease are often diagnosed during an index presentation to hospital with decompensated cirrhosis or liver-related events, and these presentations are associated with high mortality. However, there is often a long asymptomatic phase, in which there is an opportunity for earlier diagnosis and interventions to prevent progression to advanced disease. Therefore, strategies for early diagnosis and interventions (including behavioural changes and pharmacological treatments) that prevent patients progressing to cirrhosis and its associated complications probably have substantial benefits for patients and health-care services. Many community pathways have been generated. Some pathways focus on abnormal liver function tests as a starting point to diagnose liver disease. Other pathways target groups at greater risk of chronic liver disease-particularly people with harmful alcohol consumption, type 2 diabetes, and obesity. This systematic review summarises the existing strategies available for the early detection or risk stratification of liver disease, focusing primarily on alcohol-related liver disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Conducting randomised clinical trials that compare different strategies will be essential to elucidate which pathways are acceptable to patients, feasible, provide high diagnostic accuracy for the detection of liver disease, improve liver-related outcomes, and are most cost-effective at the population level.

Quality standards for the management of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD): consensus recommendations from the British Association for the Study of the Liver and British Society of Gastroenterology NAFLD Special Interest Group

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is common, affecting approximately 25% of the general population. The evidence base for the investigation and management of NAFLD is large and growing, but there is currently little practical guidance to support development of services and delivery of care. To address this, we produced a series of evidence-based quality standard recommendations for the management of NAFLD, with the aim of improving patient care. A multidisciplinary group of experts from the British Association for the Study of the Liver and British Society of Gastroenterology NAFLD Special Interest Group produced the recommendations, which cover: management of people with, or at risk of, NAFLD before the gastroenterology or liver clinic; assessment and investigations in secondary care; and management in secondary care. The quality of evidence for each recommendation was evaluated by the Grading of Recommendation Assessment, Development and Evaluation tool. An anonymous modified Delphi voting process was conducted individually by each member of the group to assess the level of agreement with each statement. Statements were included when agreement was 80% or greater. From the final list of statements, a smaller number of auditable key performance indicators were selected to allow services to benchmark their practice. It is hoped that services will review their practice against our recommendations and key performance indicators and institute service development where needed to improve the care of patients with NAFLD.

The Placebo Response in Randomized Trials in Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Simply Explained

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver histology is the primary endpoint in phase III trials in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). There is an appreciable response to placebo that confounds endpoint assessment. The aim of this study was to quantify contributors to the placebo response and its impact on liver fibrosis improvement.

METHODS

Estimates of fibrosis improvement in placebo-treated participants were made using probabilistic simulation. Each simulated trial included 120 participants. Parameters considered in the model included sampling and observer variability, regression to the mean, and net fibrosis progression calibrated to reported trial outcomes.

RESULTS

In large phase IIb and III trials, 22% of placebo-treated participants with fibrosis stage 2 or 3 NASH at baseline improved by at least 1 fibrosis stage with minimal net disease progression. Estimates of sampling and observer variability in simultaneous biopsy studies highlighted an imbalance where apparent fibrosis improvement was more likely than worsening. Using these estimates and known trial outcomes, net fibrosis progression was estimated at 0.05 stages per year. Simulations of the placebo response rate showed a rate of 22% with 80% of trials falling between 15 and 30%, in keeping with trials reported to date. Additional increases in observer variability further increased the placebo response.

CONCLUSIONS

The analyses presented simply define the placebo response in liver fibrosis in trials in NASH in terms of sampling and observer variability, regression to the mean, and fibrosis progression. Factors relating to liver biopsy are largely unmodifiable, and the variation in placebo response rates, both simulated and observed, challenges the role of biopsy in trial endpoint assessment.

Systematic review: development of a consensus code set to identify cirrhosis in electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Electronic health records (EHRs) collate longitudinal data that can be used to facilitate large-scale research in patients with cirrhosis. However, there is no consensus code set to define the presence of cirrhosis in EHR. This systematic review aims to evaluate the validity of diagnostic coding in cirrhosis and to synthesise a comprehensive set of ICD-10 codes for future EHR research.

METHOD

MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched for studies that used EHR to identify cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications. Validated code sets were summarised, and the performance characteristics were extracted. Citation analysis was done to inform development of a consensus code set. This was then validated in a cohort of patients.

RESULTS

One thousand six hundred twenty-six records were screened, and 18 studies were identified. The positive predictive value (PPV) was the most frequently reported statistical estimate and was ≥80% in 17/18 studies. Citation analyses showed continued variation in those used in contemporary research practice. Nine codes were identified as those most frequently used in the literature and these formed the consensus code set. This was validated in diverse patient populations from Europe and North America and showed high PPV (83%-89%) and greater sensitivity for the identification of cirrhosis than the most often used code set in the recent literature.

CONCLUSION

There is variation in code sets used to identify cirrhosis in contemporary research practice. A consensus set has been developed and validated, showing improved performance, and is proposed to align EHR study designs in cirrhosis to facilitate international collaboration and comparisons.

Trajectory of Serum Bilirubin Predicts Spontaneous Recovery in a Real-World Cohort of Patients With Alcoholic Hepatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a severe condition with poor short-term prognosis. Specific treatment with corticosteroids slightly improves short-term survival but is associated with infection and is not used in many centers. A reliable method to identify patients who will recover spontaneously will minimise the numbers of patients who experience side effects of available treatments.

METHODS

We analysed the trajectory of serum bilirubin concentration over the course of hospital admissions in patients with AH to predict spontaneous survival and the need for treatment.

RESULTS

data from 426 patients were analysed. Based on bilirubin trajectory, patients were categorized into three groups: 'fast fallers' (bilirubin <0.8 x admission value at day 7), 'static' (bilirubin of >0.9 - <1.2 x admission value) and 'rapid risers' (bilirubin of ≥1.2 x admission bilirubin). Fast fallers had significantly better 90-day survival compared to other groups (log rank p < .001), and showed no benefit of corticosteroid therapy (OR for survival at 28 days of treatment, 0.94, 95% CI 0.06 - 8.41). These findings remained even amongst patients with severe disease based on initial DF, GAHS or MELD scores.

CONCLUSIONS

We present an intuitive method of classifying patients with AH based on the trajectory of bilirubin over the first week of admission. It is complimentary to existing scores that identify candidates for corticosteroid treatment or assess response to treatment. This method identifies a group of patients with AH who recover spontaneously and can avoid corticosteroid therapy.

Regional variations in hepatocellular carcinoma incidence, routes to diagnosis, treatment and survival in England

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence, management and survival across England were examined to determine if geographical inequalities exist.

Method

15,468 HCC cases diagnosed 2010–2016 were included. Age-standardised incidence rates, net survival and proportions receiving potentially curative treatment and presenting through each route to diagnosis adjusted for age at diagnosis, sex and area-based deprivation quintile, were calculated overall and by Cancer Alliance.

Results

HCC incidence rates increased in men from 6.2 per 100,000 in 2010 to 8.8 in 2016, and in women from 1.5 to 2.2. The highest incidence rates, found in parts of the North of England and London, were nearly double the lowest. The adjusted proportion presenting as an emergency ranged 27–41% across Cancer Alliances. Odds increased with increasing deprivation quintile and age. Only one in five patients received potentially curative treatment (range 15–28%) and odds decreased with increasing deprivation and age. One-year survival in 2013–2016 ranged 38–53%.

Conclusion

This population-based, nationwide analysis demonstrates clear differences in HCC incidence, management and survival across England. It highlights socioeconomic-associated variation and the need for improvement in early diagnosis and curative treatment of HCC. This research should assist policymakers, service providers and clinicians to identify regions where additional training, services and resources would be best directed.

A Systematic Review of Animal Models of NAFLD Finds High-Fat, High-Fructose Diets Most Closely Resemble Human NAFLD

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Animal models of human disease are a key component of translational hepatology research, yet there is no consensus on which model is optimal for NAFLD.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We generated a database of 3,920 rodent models of NAFLD. Study designs were highly heterogeneous, and therefore, few models had been cited more than once. Analysis of genetic models supported the current evidence for the role of adipose dysfunction and suggested a role for innate immunity in the progression of NAFLD. We identified that high-fat, high-fructose diets most closely recapitulate the human phenotype of NAFLD. There was substantial variability in the nomenclature of animal models: a consensus on terminology of specialist diets is needed. More broadly, this analysis demonstrates the variability in preclinical study design, which has wider implications for the reproducibility of in vivo experiments both in the field of hepatology and beyond.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic analysis provides a framework for phenotypic assessment of NAFLD models and highlights the need for increased standardization and replication.

Administrative Coding in Electronic Health Care Record-Based Research of NAFLD: An Expert Panel Consensus Statement

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Electronic health record (EHR)-based research allows the capture of large amounts of data, which is necessary in NAFLD, where the risk of clinical liver outcomes is generally low. The lack of consensus on which International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes should be used as exposures and outcomes limits comparability and generalizability of results across studies. We aimed to establish consensus among a panel of experts on ICD codes that could become the reference standard and provide guidance around common methodological issues.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Researchers with an interest in EHR-based NAFLD research were invited to collectively define which administrative codes are most appropriate for documenting exposures and outcomes. We used a modified Delphi approach to reach consensus on several commonly encountered methodological challenges in the field. After two rounds of revision, a high level of agreement (>67%) was reached on all items considered. Full consensus was achieved on a comprehensive list of administrative codes to be considered for inclusion and exclusion criteria in defining exposures and outcomes in EHR-based NAFLD research. We also provide suggestions on how to approach commonly encountered methodological issues and identify areas for future research.

CONCLUSIONS

This expert panel consensus statement can help harmonize and improve generalizability of EHR-based NAFLD research.

Fibrosis progression rate in a systematic review of placebo-treated nonalcoholic steatohepatitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver fibrosis is the critical determinant of liver-related outcomes in persons with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. The rate that fibrosis develops determines the time taken to reach cirrhosis and consequent clinical outcomes. Estimates of the fibrosis progression rate (FPR) are uncertain having been defined in small observational series that rely largely on nonstandardised repeat biopsy in selected patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the FPR in placebo-treated participants with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in randomised controlled trials (RCTs).

METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs in NASH with data on fibrosis change extracted. Calculated fibrosis progression rates were pooled in meta-analysis. The pooled estimate was then used to model the proportion of hypothetical cohorts starting with no fibrosis at the age of 30 who develop cirrhosis.

RESULTS

A total of 35 trials including 1419 placebo-treated participants who underwent repeat liver biopsy were evaluated. Considering all trials, the overall FPR was 0.00 stages per year, increasing to 0.03 stages per year in both trials at low risk of bias and trials including >50 placebo-treated participants. This estimate was markedly lower than the value derived from previously pooled analyses of observational data. Using a FPR of 0.03 resulted in a substantial reduction in the proportion of patients developing cirrhosis compared with the FPR derived from observational studies (13% vs 28%).

CONCLUSIONS

The FPR in placebo-treated participants in RCTs is lower than that described from observational data. Slower fibrosis progression predicts fewer persons with NASH will progress to cirrhosis than previously estimated.

Primary liver cancer in the UK: Incidence, incidence-based mortality, and survival by subtype, sex, and nation

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The incidence of primary liver cancer (PLC) is increasing in Western Europe. To understand trends over time and the current burden in the UK, a detailed analysis of the epidemiology of PLC and its subtypes was conducted.

METHODS

Data on PLCs diagnosed during 1997-2017 were obtained from population-based, nationwide registries in the UK. European age-standardised incidence (ASR) and incidence-based mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 person-years were calculated overall and by sex and UK-nation. Annual percentage change in rates was estimated using Joinpoint regression. One-, 2-, and 5-year age-standardised net survival was estimated.

RESULTS

A total of 82,024 PLCs were diagnosed. Both hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence and mortality rates trebled (ASR 1.8-5.5 per 100,000, ASMR 1.3-4.0). The rate of increase appeared to plateau around 2014/2015. Scottish men consistently had the highest HCC incidence rates. PLC survival increased, driven by a substantial increase in the proportion that are HCC (as prognosis is better than other PLCs) and in HCC survival (change in 1-year survival 24-47%). Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma was the most common PLC in women and 1-year survival improved from 22.6% to 30.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

PLC incidence has been increasing rapidly but, as most risk factors are modifiable, it is largely a preventable cancer. This rate of increase has slowed in recent years, possibly attributable to effective treatment for hepatitis C. As other risk factors such as obesity and diabetes remain prevalent in the UK, it is unlikely the considerable burden of this disease will abate. While improvements in survival have been made, over half of patients are not alive after 1 year, therefore further progress in prevention, early detection, and treatment innovation are needed.

LAY SUMMARY

Many more people are getting liver cancer, particularly the subtype hepatocellular carcinoma, than 20 years ago. Men in Scotland are most likely to get liver cancer and to die from it. Survival after liver cancer diagnosis is getting longer but still less than half are alive after 1 year.

Histological Endpoints for Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Trials: Lights and Shadows

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with liver fibrosis is an increasingly important cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality. A diagnosis of NASH can only be made using liver biopsy. Liver histology also forms the endpoint for the expedited licensing strategies that have been approved by regulators to allow patients with NASH access to treatment before the impact of these on clinical outcomes is known. Validation of these histological surrogate endpoints is critical for the ongoing development of new therapies for NASH. The use of liver biopsy to define both trial entry and endpoints raises questions about the use of treatments for NASH in practice when the effectiveness of treatment will likely depend, at least in part, on the use of histology for patient selection in the real world.

Weight loss, insulin resistance, and study design confound results in a meta-analysis of animal models of fatty liver

The classical drug development pipeline necessitates studies using animal models of human disease to gauge future efficacy in humans, however there is a low conversion rate from success in animals to humans. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a complex chronic disease without any established therapies and a major field of animal research. We performed a meta-analysis with meta-regression of 603 interventional rodent studies (10,364 animals) in NAFLD to assess which variables influenced treatment response. Weight loss and alleviation of insulin resistance were consistently associated with improvement in NAFLD. Multiple drug classes that do not affect weight in humans caused weight loss in animals. Other study design variables, such as age of animals and dietary composition, influenced the magnitude of treatment effect. Publication bias may have increased effect estimates by 37-79%. These findings help to explain the challenge of reproducibility and translation within the field of metabolism.

Assessing the Time-Dependent Impact of Performance Status on Outcomes After Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Identifying how the prognostic impact of performance status (PS) differs according to indication, era, and time period ("epoch") after liver transplantation (LT) could have implications for selection and treatment of patients on the waitlist. We used national data from the United Kingdom and Ireland to assess impact of PS on mortality separately for HCC and non-HCC recipients.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We assessed pre-LT PS using the 5-point modified Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group scale and used Cox regression methods to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) that compared posttransplantation mortality in different epochs of follow-up (0-90 days and 90 days to 1 year) and in different eras of transplantation (1995-2005 and 2006-2016). 2107 HCC and 10,693 non-HCC patients were included. One-year survival decreased with worsening PS in non-HCC recipients where 1-year survival was 91.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 88.3-94.4) in those able to carry out normal activity (PS1) compared to 78.7% (95% CI, 76.7-80.5) in those completely reliant on care (PS5). For HCC patients, these estimates were 89.9% (95% CI, 85.4-93.2) and 83.1% (95% CI, 61.0-93.3), respectively. Reduction in survival in non-HCC patients with poorer PS was in the first 90 days after transplant, with no major effect observed between 90 days and 1 year. Adjustment for donor and recipient characteristics did not change the findings. Comparing era, post-LT mortality improved for HCC (adjusted HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.40-0.74) and non-HCC recipients (0.48; 95% CI, 0.42-0.55), but this did not differ according to PS score (P = 0.39 and 0.61, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Impact on mortality of the recipient's pretransplant PS is principally limited to the first 3 months after LT. Over time, mortality has improved for both HCC and non-HCC recipients and across the full range of PS.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent-shunt in the management of portal hypertension

These guidelines on transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent-shunt (TIPSS) in the management of portal hypertension have been commissioned by the Clinical Services and Standards Committee (CSSC) of the British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) under the auspices of the Liver Section of the BSG. The guidelines are new and have been produced in collaboration with the British Society of Interventional Radiology (BSIR) and British Association of the Study of the Liver (BASL). The guidelines development group comprises elected members of the BSG Liver Section, representation from BASL, a nursing representative and two patient representatives. The quality of evidence and grading of recommendations was appraised using the GRADE system. These guidelines are aimed at healthcare professionals considering referring a patient for a TIPSS. They comprise the following subheadings: indications; patient selection; procedural details; complications; and research agenda. They are not designed to address: the management of the underlying liver disease; the role of TIPSS in children; or complex technical and procedural aspects of TIPSS.

Validation of an algorithm using inpatient electronic health records to determine the presence and severity of cirrhosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in England: an observational study

OBJECTIVES

Outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are determined by both cancer characteristics and liver disease severity. This study aims to validate the use of inpatient electronic health records to determine liver disease severity from treatment and procedure codes.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

SETTING

Two National Health Service (NHS) cancer centres in England.

PARTICIPANTS

339 patients with a new diagnosis of HCC between 2007 and 2016.

MAIN OUTCOME

Using inpatient electronic health records, we have developed an optimised algorithm to identify cirrhosis and determine liver disease severity in a population with HCC. The diagnostic accuracy of the algorithm was optimised using clinical records from one NHS Trust and it was externally validated using anonymised data from another centre.

RESULTS

The optimised algorithm has a positive predictive value (PPV) of 99% for identifying cirrhosis in the derivation cohort, with a sensitivity of 86% (95% CI 82% to 90%) and a specificity of 98% (95% CI 96% to 100%). The sensitivity for detecting advanced stage cirrhosis is 80% (95% CI 75% to 87%) and specificity is 98% (95% CI 96% to 100%), with a PPV of 89%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our optimised algorithm, based on inpatient electronic health records, reliably identifies and stages cirrhosis in patients with HCC. This highlights the potential of routine health data in population studies to stratify patients with HCC according to liver disease severity.

Surveillance for hepatocellular cancer

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common complication of cirrhosis. The incidence of HCC is rising and HCC-related mortality is rising in parallel such that there were more than 1,700 deaths in the UK in 2015. Since cirrhosis is a known risk factor for the development of HCC and early diagnosis is associated with improved outcomes, surveillance for the development of HCC using regular ultrasound scans is recommended by many expert bodies including the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). This surveillance is not supported by high-quality evidence and there is an increasing appreciation of the associated harms. In this review the likely benefits of surveillance are discussed together with recommendations to increase the effectiveness of surveillance overall.

Surveillance for hepatocellular cancer

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common complication of cirrhosis. The incidence of HCC is rising and HCC-related mortality is rising in parallel such that there were more than 1,700 deaths in the UK in 2015. Since cirrhosis is a known risk factor for the development of HCC and early diagnosis is associated with improved outcomes, surveillance for the development of HCC using regular ultrasound scans is recommended by many expert bodies including the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). This surveillance is not supported by high-quality evidence and there is an increasing appreciation of the associated harms. In this review the likely benefits of surveillance are discussed together with recommendations to increase the effectiveness of surveillance overall.

Modeling the benefits and harms of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma: Information to support informed choices

Surveillance by ultrasonography for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for individuals with cirrhosis is recommended. There is debate regarding the effectiveness of surveillance in reducing mortality, and there is little information on the harms available to patients considering surveillance. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of both the benefit and harms of surveillance. A Markov model was built to simulate outcomes of individuals aged 50 years with well-compensated cirrhosis entering surveillance. Following identification of a focal lesion by ultrasound surveillance, further investigations were defined by the European Association for the Study of the Liver/European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer recall policy. Benefit and harm outcomes are expressed per 1,000 patients over 5 years. For every 1,000 patients in surveillance over 5 years, there are 13 fewer deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 12-14) compared with no surveillance, equating to a number needed to screen to prevent one death from HCC of 77. In comparison, many more individuals experienced harm through surveillance. For every 1,000 patients, 150 (95% CI, 146-154) had one or more false-positive tests equating to a number needed to harm from surveillance of 7. As a consequence of a false-positive test, 65 individuals required at least one additional unnecessary computed tomography scan or magnetic resonance imaging and 39 required an unnecessary liver biopsy according to the recall policy. Surveillance benefits were sensitive to the incidence of HCC and the mortality benefit achieved by treatment. Harms were sensitive to the rates of false-positive testing and the frequency of liver biopsy.

CONCLUSION

There is a balance between the small absolute mortality benefit to surveillance for HCC and the numerically more frequent harms resulting from false-positive testing. Implementation of the recently revised American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases recommendations is predicted to reduce harms from unnecessary liver biopsy. (Hepatology 2017;66:1546-1555).

Patient understanding of liver cirrhosis and improvement using multimedia education

OBJECTIVE

For patients to engage with the long-term management of liver cirrhosis, sufficient understanding of their condition is essential. The aim of this study was to assess baseline patient knowledge and to test whether a condition-specific multimedia screencast could improve this.

DESIGN

Service quality improvement study.

SETTING

A UK tertiary liver centre. Patients were recruited during 12 general hepatology outpatient clinics.

PATIENTS

Fifty-two patients with liver cirrhosis were included. Sixty-two per cent were male; their median age was 56 years and their median clinic attendance period was 3 years.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants completed a baseline questionnaire assessing their knowledge of the management and complications of cirrhosis. They then watched a tailored screencast discussing this condition, which had been developed by expert hepatologists in collaboration with patient representatives. Knowledge was reassessed using a new copy of the original questionnaire after an interval of at least one month.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Patient scores on knowledge questionnaires at baseline and follow-up.

RESULTS

Fifty-two patients achieved a median score of 25.0% before viewing the screencast. Thirty-five patients then completed a follow-up questionnaire after an interval period. The median questionnaire score in this group improved from 25.0% to 66.7%; an increase of 41.7% compared with baseline (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite regular review at a specialist clinic, participants had poor baseline knowledge of liver cirrhosis. Delivering information by screencast led to a significant improvement. We therefore present an effective way to empower patients with accurate, up-to-date and retainable information that can easily be translated to many other conditions.

The effect of Liver Transplantation on the quality of life of the recipient's main caregiver - a systematic review

Liver transplantation (LT) is a transformative, life-saving procedure with life-long sequale for patients and their caregivers. The impact of LT on the patient's main caregiver can be underestimated. We carried out a systematic review of the impact of LT on the Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQL) of LT patients' main caregivers. We searched 13 medical databases from 1996 to 2015. We included studies with HRQL data on caregivers of patients following LT then quality assessed and narratively synthesized the findings from these studies. Of 7076 initial hits, only five studies fell within the scope of this study. In general, they showed caregiver burden persisted in the early period following LT. One study showed improvements, however, the other four showed caregiver's levels of stress, anxiety and depression, remained similar or got worse post-LT and remained above that of the normal population. It was suggested that HRQL of the patient impacted on the caregiver and vice versa and may be linked to patient outcomes. No data were available investigating which groups were at particular risk of low HRQL following LT or if any interventions could improve this. The current information about LT caregivers' needs and factors that impact on their HRQL are not adequately defined. Large studies are needed to examine the effects of LT on the patients' family and caregivers to understand the importance of caregiver support to maximize outcomes of LT for the patient and their caregivers.

Lessons from Epidemiology: The Burden of Liver Disease

Liver cirrhosis is responsible for more than 1 million deaths annually and the majority of these deaths are preventable. There is marked geographical variation in rates of mortality due to cirrhosis, and this variation in liver disease burden exemplifies the links between population risks for liver disease and mortality. The differing geographical distribution of the major risks factors for the development of liver disease including alcohol consumption, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, hepatitis B virus infection, and obesity and the metabolic syndrome has the potential to highlight opportunities for intervention, while the evolution of these risk factors provides insights into understanding the future burden of liver disease. This review focuses on the use of population data to identify high-risk areas and populations that would benefit from preventative interventions to reduce the mortality from liver disease. Specific strategies that are effective at the policy and public health levels are discussed to illustrate the impact these can have if widely implemented. The impact of therapies that have the potential to change the natural history of liver disease, including direct acting antivirals for HCV infection is also described. Finally, the challenges of describing the epidemiology of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease are highlighted to illustrate the need to understand the natural history of disease to inform and influence the development of novel therapies.

High resolution sequencing of hepatitis C virus reveals limited intra-hepatic compartmentalization in end-stage liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The high replication and mutation rate of hepatitis C virus (HCV) results in a heterogeneous population of viral sequences in vivo. HCV replicates in the liver and infected hepatocytes occur as foci surrounded by uninfected cells that may promote compartmentalization of viral variants. Given recent reports showing interferon stimulated gene (ISG) expression in chronic hepatitis C, we hypothesized that local interferon responses may limit HCV replication and evolution.

METHODS

To investigate the spatial influence of liver architecture on viral replication we measured HCV RNA and ISG mRNA from each of the 8 Couinaud segments of the liver from 21 patients undergoing liver transplant.

RESULTS

HCV RNA and ISG mRNA levels were comparable across all sites from an individual liver but showed up to 500-fold difference between patients. Importantly, there was no association between ISG and HCV RNA expression across all sites in the liver or plasma. Deep sequencing of HCV RNA isolated from the 8 hepatic sites from two subjects showed a similar distribution of viral quasispecies across the liver and uniform sequence diversity. Single genome amplification of HCV E1E2-envelope clones from 6 selected patients at 2 hepatic sites supported these data and showed no evidence for HCV compartmentalization.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no differences between the hepatic and plasma viral quasispecies in all patients sampled. We conclude that in end-stage liver disease HCV RNA levels and the genetic pool of HCV envelope sequences are indistinguishable between distant sites in the liver and plasma, arguing against viral compartmentalization.

LAY SUMMARY

HCV is an RNA virus that exists as a quasispecies of closely related genomes that are under continuous selection by host innate and adaptive immune responses and antiviral drug therapy. The primary site of HCV replication is the liver and yet our understanding of the spatial distribution of viral variants within the liver is limited. High resolution sequencing of HCV and monitoring of innate immune responses at multiple sites across the liver identified a uniform pattern of diversity and argues against viral compartmentalization.