Temporal trend analysis of rheumatic heart disease burden in high-income countries between 1990 and 2019

AIMS

To assesses trends in rheumatic heart disease (RHD) burden in high-income, European Union 15+ (EU15+) countries between 1990 and 2019.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Cross-sectional analysis of the incidence and mortality of RHD was conducted using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study database. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were extracted for EU15+ countries per sex for each of the years from 1990 to 2019, inclusive, and mortality-to-incidence indices (MII) were computed. Joinpoint regression analysis was used for the description of trends. Over 29 years, an overall declining trend in RHD incidence and mortality across EU 15+ nations were observed. There was significant variability in RHD incidence and mortality rates across high-income countries. However, both RHD incidence and mortality were higher among females compared with males across EU15+ countries over the observed period. The most recent incidence trend, starting predominantly after 2014, demonstrated a rise in RHD incidence in most countries for both sexes. The timing of this RHD resurgence corresponds temporally with an influx of migrants and refugees into Europe. The recent increasing RHD incidence rates ranged from +0.4% to +24.7% for males, and +0.6% to +11.4% for females.

CONCLUSION

More than half of EU15+ nations display a recent increase in RHD incidence rate across both sexes. Possible factors associated with this rise are discussed and include increase in global migration from nations with higher RHD prevalence, host nation factors such as migrants' housing conditions, healthcare access, and migrant health status on arrival.

Trends in the incidence and mortality of infective endocarditis in high-income countries between 1990 and 2019

BACKGROUND

Infective endocarditis (IE) remains a life-threatening disease with high morbidity and mortality.

OBJECTIVES

To describe temporal trends in IE incidence, mortality and survival over the last 30 years.

METHODS

Nineteen high-income countries (the 'EU 15+') were included. Age-standardised and sex-stratified incidence rates (ASIRs) and mortality rates (ASMRs) for IE were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database between 1990 and 2019, and mortality to incidence ratios (ASMIRs) were calculated. Trends were analysed using Joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

ASIRs were higher in males than females and increased in both sexes in all countries between 1990 and 2019. A recent steep rise in ASIRs was noted in several countries including the UK, the USA and Germany. ASMRs increased for both sexes in all countries except Finland and Austria. The largest increase in ASMR was observed in females in Italy (+246%). ASMIRs were generally higher in females compared to males, with large increases in ASMIRs (indicating worsening survival) at the end of the 20th century, but more recent stabilisation or decline across the study cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

While the incidence and mortality of IE have increased over the last 30 years, recent data suggest that these trends have plateaued or reversed in most countries studied. However, a recent surge in incidence in several countries (including the USA and UK) is of concern, while unfavourable outcomes in females also merit attention. More encouragingly, this analysis provides the first indication of improving IE survival at population level, supporting recent advances in diagnosis and treatment.

Paradoxical impact of socioeconomic factors on outcome of atrial fibrillation in Europe: trends in incidence and mortality from atrial fibrillation

AIMS

The aim of this study was to understand the changing trends in atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence and mortality across Europe from 1990 to 2017, and how socioeconomic factors and sex differences play a role.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a temporal analysis of data from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Database for 20 countries across Europe using Joinpoint regression analysis. Age-adjusted incidence, mortality, and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) to approximate case fatality rate are presented. Incidence and mortality trends were heterogenous throughout Europe, with Austria, Denmark, and Sweden experiencing peaks in incidence in the middle of the study period. Mortality rates were higher in wealthier countries with the highest being Sweden for both men and women (8.83 and 8.88 per 100 000, respectively) in 2017. MIRs were higher in women in all countries studied, with the disparity increasing the most over time in Germany (43.6% higher in women vs. men in 1990 to 74.5% higher in women in 2017).

CONCLUSION

AF incidence and mortality across Europe did not show a general trend, but unique patterns for some nations were observed. Higher mortality rates were observed in wealthier countries, potentially secondary to a survivor effect where patients survive long enough to suffer from AF and its complications. Outcomes for women with AF were worse than men, represented by higher MIRs. This suggests that there is widespread healthcare inequality between the sexes across Europe, or that there are biological differences between them in terms of their risk of adverse outcomes from AF.