Excess hospitalizations and in-hospital mortality associated with seasonal influenza in Italy: a 11-year retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Influenza and flu-like syndromes are difficult to monitor because the symptoms are not specific, laboratory tests are not routinely performed, and diagnosis codes are often lacking or incompletely registered in medical records. This may result in an underestimation of hospital admissions, associated costs, and in-hospital mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the public health and economic burden of hospitalisations associated with influenza in Italy, at the national and regional levels.

METHODS

This 11-year retrospective study included patients admitted to hospitals for influenza or diagnoses associated with influenza (including respiratory and cardiocirculatory conditions) from 2008/09 to 2018/19. Data on hospitalisations were extracted from the Italian Hospital Discharge Records. Information on weekly influenza-like syndrome incidence and weekly average temperature were used to estimate the burden of influenza in terms of hospital admissions in every Italian region and for different age groups by applying a negative binomial model. The model was also applied to estimate in-hospital mortality and the total costs of influenza and influenza-like hospital admissions.

RESULTS

Over the study period, in addition to 3,970 average seasonal admissions coded as influenza, we estimated an average of 21,500 excess hospitalization associated with influenza per season, which corresponds to 36.4 cases per 100,000. Most of the excess hospitalisations concerned older individuals (> 65 years) and children (0-4 years) with 86 and 125 cases per 100,000, respectively. Large variations were observed across regions. Overall, the total estimated hospital burden associated with influenza (including respiratory and cardiocirculatory conditions) was approximately €123 m per year. While the in-hospital mortality for admissions with a primary diagnosis of influenza was very low (~ 150 cases per season), cases increased dramatically for primary diagnoses of influenza and pneumonia (about 9,500 cases per season). The average seasonal in-hospital deaths attributable to influenza were equal to 2,775 cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest a remarkable underestimation of the burden of influenza, mostly in the older population but not neglectable in younger individuals. Our results may aid the management of current and future flu seasons and should be used for policy making (e.g., vaccine strategies) and operation management choices (e.g., planning and staffing beds during influenza peaks). Overall, the present study supports the need for increased testing for influenza in Italy to tackle the current underestimation of influenza burden.

Reducing the burden of travel and environmental impact through decentralization of cancer care

Life expectancy, quality of life and satisfaction of oncologic patients highly depend on access to adequate specialized services, that consider their conditions in a holistic way. The present study aims to evaluate the introduction of oncology services in an outpatient setting in a mountain village in Northern Italy. The initiative is evaluated using the three pillars of sustainability (social, economic and environmental) as dimensions that are often overlooked by healthcare policy makers. Using micro data on 18,625 interventions, we estimate the number of kilometers saved by patients (reduction of "travel burden" as indicator of social sustainability), the additional travel costs for the NHS (indicator of economic sustainability) and the implied reduction of CO2 emissions (indicator of environmental sustainability). Over the period July 2016-2021, the decentralized health center delivered 2,292 interventions saving 218,566 km for a corresponding value of €131,140. The additional costs for the NHS was €26,152. The reduction of CO2 emissions was 32.37 Tons (€5,989). Overall, the socio-economic benefit of reducing travel of care for the patients residing in this remote valley was €110,976. This study adds original understanding of the benefits of decentralizing oncologic care and shows its operational feasibility conditions. Given the modest number of similar projects, it provides evidence to policy makers and, especially, managers who are faced with the challenge to implement the decentralization of specialized services.

Patient characteristics associated with the acceptability of teleconsultation: a retrospective study of osteoporotic patients post-COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, teleconsultations (TCs) have become common practice for many chronic conditions, including osteoporosis. While satisfaction with TCs among patients increases in times of emergency, we have little knowledge of whether the acceptability of TCs persists once in-person visits return to being a feasible and safe option. In this study, we assess the acceptability of TCs across five dimensions for osteoporosis care among patients who started or continued with TCs after the COVID-19 pandemic had waned. We then explore the patient characteristics associated with these perceptions.

METHODS

Between January and April 2022, 80 osteoporotic patients treated at the Humanitas Hospital in Milan, Italy, were recruited to answer an online questionnaire about the acceptability of TCs for their care. The acceptability of TCs was measured using a modified version of the Service User Technology Acceptability Questionnaire (SUTAQ), which identifies five domains of acceptability: perceived benefits, satisfaction, substitution, privacy and discomfort, and care personnel concerns. Multivariable ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regression analysis was performed to assess which patient characteristics in terms of demographics, socio-economic conditions, digital skills, social support, clinical characteristics and pattern of TC use were correlated with the five domains of acceptability measured through the SUTAQ.

RESULTS

The degree of acceptability of TCs was overall good across the 80 respondents and the five domains. Some heterogeneity in perceptions emerged with respect to TCs substituting for in-person visits, negatively impacting continuity of care and reducing the length of consultations. For the most part, acceptability was not affected by patient characteristics with a few exceptions related to treatment time and familiarity with the TC service modality (i.e., length of osteoporosis treatment and number of TCs experienced by the patient).

CONCLUSIONS

TCs appear to be an acceptable option for osteoporosis care in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study suggests that other characteristics besides age, digital skills and social support, which are traditionally relevant to TC acceptability, should be taken into account in order to better target this care delivery modality.

A participatory process to design an app to improve adherence to anti-osteoporotic therapies: A development and usability study

Objective

The aim of the study was to develop an app to improve patients' adherence to therapy for osteoporosis and to test its usability.

Methods

In Phase I, the app functions needed to improve medication adherence were identified through a focus group with six patients with osteoporosis and a joint interview with two bone specialists. The app prototype was then developed (Phase II) and refined after its feasibility testing (Phase III) for 13-25 days by eight patients. Finally, the app underwent usability testing (Phase IV) for 6 months by nine other patients. The mHealth App Usability Questionnaire (MAUQ) was used to collect the assessment of the app by the 17 patients.

Results

The final version of the app provided information on osteoporosis, allowed patients to contact the bone specialist for an additional consultation, and generated a reminder for taking medications accompanied by feedback on adherence. The assessment of the app was positive but evaluations differed between the feasibility and usability testing, with the former displaying a significantly (p ≤ .05) better assessment across all MAUQ items.

Conclusions

In this study, we tested an app for improving adherence to medical therapies in patients with osteoporosis. The usability testing revealed a lower "patient-centered" performance of the app as compared to that observed during the feasibility phase. Future developments of the study include increasing the testing cohort and adding a technical support during the usability testing.

Spillover effects and other determinants of medical device uptake in the presence of a medical guideline: An analysis of drug-eluting stents in Germany and Italy

We investigated the role of spillover effects among hospitals in the diffusion of drug-eluting stents (DES) in Germany and Italy during a period in which the relevant medical guideline clearly recommended their use over bare-metal stents. We used administrative data of hospitalized patients treated with ST-elevation myocardial infarction from 2012 to 2016 to estimate spatial panel models allowing for global spillover effects. We used an inverse-distance weights matrix to capture the geographical proximity between neighboring hospitals and assigned a lower weight to more distant neighbors. For both countries, we found significant positive spatial autocorrelation in most years based on the global Moran's I test, and a significant, positive spatial lag parameter across model specifications, indicating positive spillover effects among neighboring hospitals. We found that private for-profit hospital ownership and hospital competition in Germany and the number of inpatient cases with circulatory system diseases in Italy were other significant determinants of DES adoption. Our results underline the importance of spillover effects among peers for the diffusion of medical devices even in the presence of a positive guideline recommendation. Policymakers might therefore consider promoting various forms of exchange and collaboration among medical staff and hospitals to ensure the appropriate use of medical technologies.

How real can we get in generating real world evidence? Exploring the opportunities of routinely collected administrative data for evaluation of medical devices

Real-world data are considered a potentially valuable source of evidence for assessing medical technologies in clinical practice, but their widespread use is hampered by numerous challenges. Using the case of coronary stents in Italy, we investigate the potential of administrative databases for estimating costs and health outcomes associated with the use of medical devices in real world conditions. An administrative dataset was created ad hoc by merging hospital records from patients admitted between 2013 and 2019 for stent implantations with ambulatory records, pharmaceutical use data and vital statistics. Health outcomes were multifold: all-cause and cardiac mortality and myocardial infarction, within 30 days, 1, 2, 5 years. Costs were estimated from the National Health System perspective. We used multivariable Cox models and propensity score (PS) methods (PS matching; stratification on PS; inverse probability of treatment weighting using PS; PS adjustment). 257,907 coronary stents were implanted in 113,912 patients. For all health outcomes and follow-up times, and across all methods, patients receiving drug-eluting stents (DES) presented lower risk. For all-cause mortality, the DES patient advantage over bare-metal stent (BMS) patients declined over time but remained significant even at 5 years. For myocardial infarction, results remained quite stable. The DES group presented lower cumulative total costs (ranging from 3264 to 2363 Euros less depending on methods). Our results confirm the consolidated evidence of the benefits of DES compared to BMS. The consistency of results across methods suggests internal validity of the study, while highlighting strengths and limitations of each depending on research context. Administrative data yield great potential to perform comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis of medical devices provided certain conditions are met.

Real-world evidence in health technology assessment of high-risk medical devices: Fit for purpose?

Health technology assessment (HTA) of medical devices (MDs) increasingly rely on real-world evidence (RWE). The aim of this study was to evaluate the type and the quality of the evidence used to assess the (cost-)effectiveness of high risk MDs (Class III) by HTA agencies in Europe (four European HTA agencies and EUnetHTA), with particular focus on RWE. Data were extracted from HTA reports on the type of evidence demonstrating (cost-)effectiveness, and the quality of observational studies of comparative effectiveness using the Good Research for Comparative Effectiveness principles. 25 HTA reports were included that incorporated 28 observational studies of comparative effectiveness. Half of the studies (46%) took important confounding and/or effect modifying variables into account in the design and/or analyses. The most common way of including confounders and/or effect modifiers was through multivariable regression analysis. Other methods, such as propensity score matching, were rarely employed. Furthermore, meaningful analyses to test key assumptions were largely omitted. Resulting recommendations from HTA agencies on MDs is therefore (partially) based on evidence which is riddled with uncertainty. Considering the increasing importance of RWE it is important that the quality of observational studies of comparative effectiveness are systematically assessed when used in decision-making.

Variation in the utilization of medical devices across Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands: A multilevel approach

Variation in healthcare utilization has been discussed extensively, with many studies showing that variation exists, but fewer studies investigating the underlying factors. In our study, we used a logistic multilevel-model at the patient, hospital, and regional levels to investigate (i) the levels to which variation could be attributed and (ii) the hospital and regional factors associated with treatment decisions. To do so, we used hospital discharge records for the years 2012-2016 in Germany and Italy and for 2014-2016 in the Netherlands combined with hospital and regional characteristics in nine case studies. We used a theoretical framework to categorize these case studies into effective, preference-sensitive, and supply-sensitive care. Our results suggest that most variation in the treatment decision can be attributed to the hospital level (e.g., case volume), whereas only a minor part is explained by regional characteristics. Italy had the highest share attributable to the regional level, whereas the Netherlands had the lowest. We observed less variation for procedures in the effective-care category compared to the preference- and supply-sensitive categories. Although our results were heterogeneous, we identified patterns in line with the theoretical framework for treatment categories, underlining the need to address variation differently depending on the category in question.

Older Adults in the United States Have Worse Cardiometabolic Health Compared to England

Explanations for lagging life expectancy in the United States compared to other high-income countries have focused largely on "deaths of despair," but attention has also shifted to the role of stalling improvements in cardiovascular disease and the obesity epidemic. Using harmonized data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study and English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we assess differences in self-reported and objective measures of health, among older adults in the United States and England and explore whether the differences in body mass index (BMI) documented between the United States and England explain the U.S. disadvantage. Older adults in the United States have a much higher prevalence of diabetes, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high inflammation (C-reactive protein) compared to English adults. While the distribution of BMI is shifted to the right in the United States with more people falling into extreme obesity categories, these differences do not explain the cross-country differences in measured biological risk. We conclude by considering how country differences in health may have affected the burden of coronavirus disease 2019 mortality in both countries.

Missing at random assumption made more plausible: evidence from the 1958 British birth cohort

OBJECTIVE

Non-response is unavoidable in longitudinal surveys. The consequences are lower statistical power and the potential for bias. We implemented a systematic data-driven approach to identify predictors of non-response in the National Child Development Study (NCDS; 1958 British birth cohort). Such variables can help make the missing at random assumption more plausible, which has implications for the handling of missing data STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We identified predictors of non-response using data from the 11 sweeps (birth to age 55) of the NCDS (n = 17,415), employing parametric regressions and the LASSO for variable selection.

RESULTS

Disadvantaged socio-economic background in childhood, worse mental health and lower cognitive ability in early life, and lack of civic and social participation in adulthood were consistently associated with non-response. Using this information, along with other data from NCDS, we were able to replicate the "population distribution" of educational attainment and marital status (derived from external data), and the original distributions of key early life characteristics.

CONCLUSION

The identified predictors of non-response have the potential to improve the plausibility of the missing at random assumption. They can be straightforwardly used as "auxiliary variables" in analyses with principled methods to reduce bias due to missing data.

Inequalities in avoidable hospitalisation in large urban areas: retrospective observational study in the metropolitan area of Milan

OBJECTIVE

Significant inequalities in access to healthcare system exist between residents of world megacities, even if they have different healthcare systems. The aim of this study was to estimate avoidable hospitalisations in the metropolitan area of Milan (Italy) and explore inequalities in access to healthcare between patients and across their areas of residence.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

SETTING

Public and accredited private hospitals in the metropolitan area of Milan. Data obtained from the hospital discharge database of the Italian Health Ministry.

PARTICIPANTS

472 579 patients hospitalised for ambulatory care sensitive conditions and resident in the metropolitan area of Milan from 2005 to 2016.

OUTCOME MEASURE

Age-adjusted rates of avoidable hospitalisations; OR for hospital admissions with ambulatory care sensitive conditions.

METHODS

Age-adjusted rates of avoidable hospitalisations in the metropolitan area of Milan were estimated from 2005 to 2016 using direct standardisation. For the hospitalised population, multilevel logistic regression model with patient random effects was used to identify patients, hospitals and municipalities' characteristics associated with risk of avoidable hospitalisation in the period 2012-2016.

RESULTS

The rate of avoidable hospitalisation in Milan fell steadily between 2005 and 2016 from 16.6 to 10.5 per 1000. Among the hospitalised population, the odds of being hospitalised with an ambulatory care sensitive condition was higher for male (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.36 to 1.48), older (OR 1.012, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.014), low-educated (elementary school vs degree OR 4.23, 95% CI 3.72 to 4.81) and single (vs married OR 2.08, 95% CI 2.01 to 2.16) patients with comorbidities (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.38 to 1.56); avoidable admissions were more frequent in public non-teaching hospitals while municipality's characteristics did not appear to be correlated with hospitalisation for ambulatory care sensitive conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

The health system in metropolitan Milan has experienced a reduction in avoidable hospitalisations between 2005 and 2016, quite homogeneously across its 134 municipalities. The study design allowed to explore inequalities among the hospitalised population for which we found specific sociodemographic disadvantages.

Socioeconomic inequalities across life and premature mortality from 1971 to 2016: findings from three British birth cohorts born in 1946, 1958 and 1970

Introduction

Disadvantaged socioeconomic position (SEP) in early and adult life has been repeatedly associated with premature mortality. However, it is unclear whether these inequalities differ across time, nor if they are consistent across different SEP indicators.

Methods

British birth cohorts born in 1946, 1958 and 1970 were used, and multiple SEP indicators in early and adult life were examined. Deaths were identified via national statistics or notifications. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate associations between ridit scored SEP indicators and all-cause mortality risk—from 26 to 43 years (n=40 784), 26 to 58 years (n=35 431) and 26 to 70 years (n=5353).

Results

More disadvantaged SEP was associated with higher mortality risk—magnitudes of association were similar across cohort and each SEP indicator. For example, HRs (95% CI) from 26 to 43 years comparing lowest to highest paternal social class were 2.74 (1.02 to 7.32) in 1946c, 1.66 (1.03 to 2.69) in 1958c, and 1.94 (1.20 to 3.15) in 1970c. Paternal social class, adult social class and housing tenure were each independently associated with mortality risk.

Conclusions

Socioeconomic circumstances in early and adult life show persisting associations with premature mortality from 1971 to 2016, reaffirming the need to address socioeconomic factors across life to reduce inequalities in survival to older age.

Do children's expectations about future physical activity predict their physical activity in adulthood?

Background

Much of the population fails to meet recommended physical activity (PA) levels, but there remains considerable individual variation. By understanding drivers of different trajectories, interventions can be better targeted and more effective. One such driver may be a person’s physical activity identity (PAI)—the extent to which a person perceives PA as central to who they are.

Methods

Using survey information and a unique body of essays written at age 11 from the National Child Development Study (N = 10 500), essays mentioning PA were automatically identified using the machine learning technique support vector classification and PA trajectories were estimated using latent class analysis. Analyses tested the extent to which childhood PAI correlated with activity levels from age 23 through 55 and with trajectories across adulthood.

Results

42.2% of males and 33.5% of females mentioned PA in their essays, describing active and/or passive engagement. Active PAI in childhood was correlated with higher levels of activity for men but not women, and was correlated with consistently active PA trajectories for both genders. Passive PAI was not related to PA for either gender.

Conclusions

This study offers a novel approach for analysing large qualitative datasets to assess identity and behaviours. Findings suggest that at as young as 11 years old, the way a young person conceptualizes activity as part of their identity has a lasting association with behaviour. Still, an active identity may require a supportive sociocultural context to manifest in subsequent behaviour.

Living longer but not necessarily healthier: The joint progress of health and mortality in the working-age population of England

Despite improvements in life expectancy, there is uncertainty on whether the increase in years of healthy life expectancy has kept pace. In this paper we explore whether there is empirical support for the expansion of morbidity hypothesis in the population aged 25-64 living in England. Nationally representative cohorts born between 1945 and 1980 are constructed from repeated annual cross-sections of the Health Survey for England, 1991-2014. Later-born cohorts at a given age have the same or higher prevalence of self-reported bad general health and long-term illness, self-reported high blood pressure (in men), self-reported and objectively-measured diabetes, circulatory illnesses, clinical hypertension, and overweight BMI. We also find that healthy life expectancies (in the sense of absence of each of these problems) at age 25 have increased at a slower pace than life expectancy between 1993 and 2013. Our findings lend support to the expansion of morbidity hypothesis and point to increased future demand for specific healthcare services at younger ages.

Avoidable hospitalization in Milan’s metropolitan area: inequalities and comparison with OECD cities

Background

The largest cities on the world face the unprecedented challenge of meeting the needs of a population that lives longer, has declining birthrates, and is altering the demographic profile on which social welfare programs have long been premised. This work is part of an international project aimed at comparing health and social care systems in megacities worldwide. We study access to healthcare in the metropolitan area of Milan to quantify avoidable hospital care and social inequalities within this world city, and compare Milan with other OECD megacities.

Methods

Two sources of data are combined: individual-level hospital discharge data to measure hospitalization for ambulatory-care sensitive conditions (ACSC), and municipality-level data collected from the national office for statistics. First, we performed an ecological analysis using a linear model for ACSC hospitalization rates to detect the risk factors in the municipality where the patient resides. Then, to identify both individual and area-level variations in population health, we use multilevel logistic regression model.

Results

Age-adjusted ACSC hospitalization rates continuously declined from 2005 to 2016, from 16% to 10.7%. Municipality-level risk factors include proportion of residents aged 65+ and proportion of foreigner residents. The individual-level predictors of ACSC hospitalization include being male, being single, having co-morbidities and low education. This association is only modestly attenuated when patient’s area-level characteristics are accounted.

Conclusions

We observed declining trends in ACSC hospitalizations and identified some patient’s as well as area-level characteristics related to avoidable hospitalization. Understanding whether ACSC hospitalization has dropped due to improvements in population health and access to healthcare or as part of the overall reduction in hospitalization rates needs to be further explored.

Key messages

Effective primary care can reduce hospitalization for preventable and chronic conditions. This work identifies individual and ecological factors related to avoidable hospitalization in urban settings. Policies to improve access to healthcare, tackle inequalities and reduce hospitalization costs may be more effective if targeted on individuals considering and the environment in which they live.

The impact of maternal employment on children's weight: Evidence from the UK

Previous research shows that maternal employment is associated with higher children’s body mass index (BMI). Using a large UK longitudinal birth cohort study of almost 20,000 children, we examine the effect of maternal employment during childhood (to age 14) on children’s weight. We address the endogeneity of maternal employment by estimating household fixed effects models. We find that maternal employment has a positive effect on children’s BMI and therefore on excess weight, and this is particularly the case for single mothers. We investigate potential pathways, including children’s sedentary behavior and healthy eating behaviors, and find evidence of more sedentary behavior and poorer eating habits amongst children whose mothers are in employment. This is consistent with higher BMI levels amongst these children.

•

First paper providing causal evidence on the effect of maternal employment on children’s weight in a UK context, for a large contemporaneous cohort of children through childhood and early adolescence, one that has grown up in the midst of the childhood ‘obesity epidemic’.

•

Maternal employment has a positive effect on children’s BMI and therefore on excess weight, and this is particularly the case for single mothers.

•

Consistent with higher levels of excess weight, children of working mothers are more likely to be sedentary and less likely to eat breakfast regularly.

Levels of disability in the older population of England: Comparing binary and ordinal classifications

BACKGROUND

Recent studies suggest the importance of distinguishing severity levels of disability. Nevertheless, there is not yet a consensus with regards to an optimal classification.

OBJECTIVE

Our study seeks to advance the existing binary definitions towards categorical/ordinal manifestations of disability.

METHODS

We define disability according to the WHO's International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) using data collected at the baseline wave of the English Longitudinal Study of Aging, a longitudinal study of the non-institutionalized population, living in England. First, we identify cut-off points in the continuous disability score derived from ICF to distinguish disabled from no-disabled participants. Then, we fit latent class models to the same data to find the optimal number of disability classes according to: (i) model fit indicators; (ii) estimated probabilities of each disability item; (iii) association of the predicted disability classes with observed health and mortality.

RESULTS

According to the binary classification criteria, about 32% of both men and women are classified disabled. No optimal number of classes emerged from the latent class models according to model fit indicators. However, the other two criteria suggest that the best-fitting model of disability severity has four classes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings contribute to the debate on the usefulness and relevance of adopting a finer categorization of disability, by showing that binary indicators of disability averaged the burden of disability and masked the very strong effect experienced by individuals having severe disability, and were not informative for low levels of disability.

A Systematic Literature Review of Studies Analyzing Inequalities in Health Expectancy among the Older Population

Aim

To collect, organize and appraise evidence of socioeconomic and demographic inequalities in health and mortality among the older population using a summary measure of population health: Health Expectancy.

Methods

A systematic literature review was conducted. Literature published in English before November 2014 was searched via two possible sources: three electronic databases (Web of Science, Medline and Embase), and references in selected articles. The search was developed combining terms referring to outcome, exposure and participants, consisting in health expectancy, socioeconomic and demographic groups, and older population, respectively.

Results

Of 256 references identified, 90 met the inclusion criteria. Six references were added after searching reference lists of included articles. Thirty-three studies were focused only on gender-based inequalities; the remaining sixty-three considered gender along with other exposures. Findings were organized according to two leading perspectives: the type of inequalities considered and the health indicators chosen to measure health expectancy. Evidence of gender-based differentials and a socioeconomic gradient were found in all studies. A remarkable heterogeneity in the choice of health indicators used to compute health expectancy emerged as well as a non-uniform way of defining same health conditions.

Conclusions

Health expectancy is a useful and convenient measure to monitor and assess the quality of ageing and compare different groups and populations. This review showed a general agreement of results obtained in different studies with regard to the existence of inequalities associated with several factors, such as gender, education, behaviors, and race. However, the lack of a standardized definition of health expectancy limits its comparability across studies. The need of conceiving health expectancy as a comparable and repeatable measure was highlighted as fundamental to make it an informative instrument for policy makers.