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Malley CS, Anenberg SC, Shindell DT. Improving consistency in estimating future health burdens from environmental risk factors: Case study for ambient air pollution. Environ Int 2024; 185:108560. [PMID: 38492497 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108560] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2023] [Revised: 03/02/2024] [Accepted: 03/04/2024] [Indexed: 03/18/2024]
Abstract
Future changes in exposure to risk factors should impact mortality rates and population. However, studies commonly use mortality rates and population projections developed exogenously to the health impact assessment model used to quantify future health burdens attributable to environmental risks that are therefore invariant to projected exposure levels. This impacts the robustness of many future health burden estimates for environmental risk factors. This work describes an alternative methodology that more consistently represents the interaction between risk factor exposure, population and mortality rates, using ambient particulate air pollution (PM2.5) as a case study. A demographic model is described that estimates future population based on projected births, mortality and migration. Mortality rates are disaggregated between the fraction due to PM2.5 exposure and other factors for a historic year, and projected independently. Accounting for feedbacks between future risk factor exposure and population and mortality rates can greatly affect estimated future attributable health burdens. The demographic model estimates much larger PM2.5-attributable health burdens with constant 2019 PM2.5 (∼10.8 million deaths in 2050) compared to a model using exogenous population and mortality rate projections (∼7.3 million), largely due to differences in mortality rate projection methods. Demographic model-projected PM2.5-attributable mortality can accumulate substantially over time. For example, ∼71 million more people are estimated to be alive in 2050 when WHO guidelines (5 µg m-3) are achieved compared to constant 2019 PM2.5 concentrations. Accounting for feedbacks is more important in applications with relatively high future PM2.5 concentrations, and relatively large changes in non-PM2.5 mortality rates.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Susan C Anenberg
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, United States
| | - Drew T Shindell
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
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Sokharavuth P, Thiv S, Nara C, Him C, Sokyimeng S, Henze DK, Holmes R, Kuylenstierna JCI, Malley CS, Michalopoulou E, Slater J. Air pollution mitigation assessment to inform Cambodia's first clean air plan. Environ Res 2023; 220:115230. [PMID: 36623681 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.115230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2022] [Revised: 01/02/2023] [Accepted: 01/03/2023] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Cambodia's 16.5 million people are exposed to air pollution in excess of World Health Organisation guidelines. The Royal Government of Cambodia has regulated air pollutant emissions and concentrations since 2000, but rapid economic growth and energy consumption means air pollution continues to impact human health. In December 2021, the Ministry of Environment of Cambodia published Cambodia's first Clean Air Plan that outlines actions to reduce air pollutant emissions over the next decade. This work presents the quantitative air pollution mitigation assessment underpinning the identification and evaluation of measures included in Cambodia's Clean Air Plan. Historic emissions of particulate matter (PM2.5, black carbon, organic carbon) and gaseous (nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, sulphur dioxide, ammonia, and carbon monoxide) air pollutants are quantified between 2010 and 2015, and projected to 2030 for a baseline scenario. Mitigation scenarios reflecting implementation of 14 measures included in Cambodia's Clean Air Plan were modelled, to quantify the national reduction in emissions, from which the reduction in ambient PM2.5 exposure and attributable health burdens were estimated. In 2015, the residential, transport, and waste sectors contribute the largest fraction of national total air pollutant emissions. Without emission reduction measures, air pollutant emissions could increase by between 50 and 150% in 2030 compared to 2015 levels, predominantly due to increases in transport emissions. The implementation of the 14 mitigation measures could substantially reduce emissions of all air pollutants, by between 60 and 80% in 2030 compared to the baseline. This reduction in emissions was estimated to avoid approximately 900 (95% C.I.: 530-1200) premature deaths per year in 2030 compared to the baseline scenario. In addition to improving air pollution and public health, Cambodia's Clean Air Plan could also to lead to additional benefits, including a 19% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, simultaneously contributing to Cambodia's climate change goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pak Sokharavuth
- General Directorate of Environmental Protection, Ministry of Environment, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Sophearith Thiv
- General Directorate of Environmental Protection, Ministry of Environment, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Chea Nara
- General Directorate of Environmental Protection, Ministry of Environment, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Chandath Him
- Air Quality and Noise Management Department, Ministry of Environment, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Sam Sokyimeng
- Air Quality and Noise Management Department, Ministry of Environment, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Daven K Henze
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States
| | - Ryan Holmes
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, United Kingdom
| | - Johan C I Kuylenstierna
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, United Kingdom
| | - Christopher S Malley
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, United Kingdom.
| | - Eleni Michalopoulou
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, United Kingdom
| | - Jessica Slater
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, United Kingdom
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Agbossou A, Fontodji JK, Ayassou K, Tchegueni S, Segla KN, Adjonou K, Bokovi Y, Ajayon AL, Polo-Akpisso A, Kuylenstierna JCI, Malley CS, Michalopoulou E, Slater J. Integrated climate change and air pollution mitigation assessment for Togo. Sci Total Environ 2022; 844:157107. [PMID: 35810891 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2022] [Revised: 06/27/2022] [Accepted: 06/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Togo, in west Africa, is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, but has made a negligible contribution to causing it. Togo ratified the Paris Agreement in 2017, committing to submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that outline Togo's climate change mitigation commitment. Togo's capital, Lomé, as well as other areas of Togo have ambient air pollutant levels exceeding World Health Organisation guidelines for human health protection, and 91 % of Togolese households cook using solid biomass, elevating household air pollution exposure. In Togo's updated NDC, submitted in 2021, Togo acknowledges the importance and opportunity of achieving international climate change mitigation targets in ways that improve air quality and achieve health benefits for Togo's citizens. The aim of this work is to evaluate priority mitigation measures in an integrated assessment of air pollutant, Short-Lived Climate Pollutant (SLCP) and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions to identify their effectiveness in simultaneously reducing air pollution and Togo's contribution to climate change. The mitigation assessment quantifies emissions for Togo and Grand Lomé from all major source sectors for historical years between 2010 and 2018, for a baseline projection to 2030 and for mitigation scenarios evaluating ten mitigation measures. The assessment estimates that Togo emitted ~21 million tonnes of GHG emissions in 2018, predominantly from the energy and Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sectors. GHG emissions are projected to increase 42 % to 30 million tonnes in 2030 without implementation of mitigation policies and measures. The implementation of the ten identified priority mitigation measures could reduce GHG emissions by ~20 % in 2030 compared to the baseline, while SLCPs and air pollutants were estimated to be reduced more, with a more than 75 % reduction in black carbon emissions in 2030. This work therefore provides a clear pathway by which Togo can reduce its already small contribution to climate change while simultaneously achieving local benefits for air quality and human health in Togo and Grand Lomé.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Aniko Polo-Akpisso
- University of Lomé, Lomé, Togo; National Coordination of NDC Togo, Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, Lomé, Togo
| | - Johan C I Kuylenstierna
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, United Kingdom
| | - Christopher S Malley
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, United Kingdom.
| | - Eleni Michalopoulou
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, United Kingdom
| | - Jessica Slater
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, United Kingdom
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Kuylenstierna JCI, Heaps CG, Ahmed T, Vallack HW, Hicks WK, Ashmore MR, Malley CS, Wang G, Lefèvre EN, Anenberg SC, Lacey F, Shindell DT, Bhattacharjee U, Henze DK. Development of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform - Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to assess air quality and climate co-benefits: Application for Bangladesh. Environ Int 2020; 145:106155. [PMID: 33027737 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.106155] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2020] [Revised: 09/17/2020] [Accepted: 09/21/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Low- and middle-income countries have the largest health burdens associated with air pollution exposure, and are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Substantial opportunities have been identified to simultaneously improve air quality and mitigate climate change due to overlapping sources of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions and because a subset of pollutants, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), directly contribute to both impacts. However, planners in low- and middle-income countries often lack practical tools to quantify the air pollution and climate change impacts of different policies and measures. This paper presents a modelling framework implemented in the Low Emissions Analysis Platform - Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to develop integrated strategies to improve air quality, human health and mitigate climate change. The framework estimates emissions of greenhouse gases, SLCPs and air pollutants for historical years, and future projections for baseline and mitigation scenarios. These emissions are then used to quantify i) population-weighted annual average ambient PM2.5 concentrations across the target country, ii) household PM2.5 exposure of different population groups living in households cooking using different fuels/technologies and iii) radiative forcing from all emissions. Health impacts (premature mortality) attributable to ambient and household PM2.5 exposure and changes in global average temperature change are then estimated. This framework is applied in Bangladesh to evaluate the air quality and climate change benefits from implementation of Bangladesh's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and National Action Plan to reduce SLCPs. Results show that the measures included to reduce GHGs in Bangladesh's NDC also have substantial benefits for air quality and human health. Full implementation of Bangladesh's NDC, and National SLCP Plan would reduce carbon dioxide, methane, black carbon and primary PM2.5 emissions by 25%, 34%, 46% and 45%, respectively in 2030 compared to a baseline scenario. These emission reductions could reduce population-weighted ambient PM2.5 concentrations in Bangladesh by 18% in 2030, and avoid approximately 12,000 and 100,000 premature deaths attributable to ambient and household PM2.5 exposures, respectively, in 2030. As countries are simultaneously planning to achieve the climate goals in the Paris Agreement, improve air quality to reduce health impacts and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, the LEAP-IBC tool provides a practical framework by which planners can develop integrated strategies, achieving multiple air quality and climate benefits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johan C I Kuylenstierna
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, United Kingdom
| | - Charles G Heaps
- US Center, Stockholm Environment Institute, Somerville, MA, United States
| | - Tanvir Ahmed
- Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Harry W Vallack
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, United Kingdom
| | - W Kevin Hicks
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, United Kingdom
| | - Mike R Ashmore
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, United Kingdom
| | - Christopher S Malley
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, United Kingdom.
| | - Guozhong Wang
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, United Kingdom
| | - Elsa N Lefèvre
- Climate and Clean Air Coalition Secretariat, United Nations Environment Programme, Paris, France
| | - Susan C Anenberg
- Milken Institute, School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington D.C., United States
| | - Forrest Lacey
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
| | - Drew T Shindell
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
| | | | - Daven K Henze
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States
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Lefohn AS, Malley CS, Smith L, Wells B, Hazucha M, Simon H, Naik V, Mills G, Schultz MG, Paoletti E, De Marco A, Xu X, Zhang L, Wang T, Neufeld HS, Musselman RC, Tarasick D, Brauer M, Feng Z, Tang H, Kobayashi K, Sicard P, Solberg S, Gerosa G. Tropospheric ozone assessment report: Global ozone metrics for climate change, human health, and crop/ecosystem research. Elementa (Wash D C) 2018; 1:1. [PMID: 30345319 PMCID: PMC6192432 DOI: 10.1525/elementa.279] [Citation(s) in RCA: 77] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Assessment of spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of ozone on human health, vegetation, and climate requires appropriate metrics. A key component of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is the consistent calculation of these metrics at thousands of monitoring sites globally. Investigating temporal trends in these metrics required that the same statistical methods be applied across these ozone monitoring sites. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test (for significant trends) and the Theil-Sen estimator (for estimating the magnitude of trend) were selected to provide robust methods across all sites. This paper provides the scientific underpinnings necessary to better understand the implications of and rationale for selecting a specific TOAR metric for assessing spatial and temporal variation in ozone for a particular impact. The rationale and underlying research evidence that influence the derivation of specific metrics are given. The form of 25 metrics (4 for model-measurement comparison, 5 for characterization of ozone in the free troposphere, 11 for human health impacts, and 5 for vegetation impacts) are described. Finally, this study categorizes health and vegetation exposure metrics based on the extent to which they are determined only by the highest hourly ozone levels, or by a wider range of values. The magnitude of the metrics is influenced by both the distribution of hourly average ozone concentrations at a site location, and the extent to which a particular metric is determined by relatively low, moderate, and high hourly ozone levels. Hence, for the same ozone time series, changes in the distribution of ozone concentrations can result in different changes in the magnitude and direction of trends for different metrics. Thus, dissimilar conclusions about the effect of changes in the drivers of ozone variability (e.g., precursor emissions) on health and vegetation exposure can result from the selection of different metrics.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Christopher S. Malley
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Environment
Department, University of York, York, UK
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Penicuik,
UK
- School of Chemistry, University of Edinburgh,
Edinburgh, UK
| | - Luther Smith
- Alion Science and Technology, Inc., Research
Triangle Park, NC, US
| | - Benjamin Wells
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S.
EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC, US
| | - Milan Hazucha
- Center for Environmental Medicine, Asthma, and Lung
Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, US
| | - Heather Simon
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S.
EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC, US
| | - Vaishali Naik
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,
Princeton, NJ, US
| | - Gina Mills
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology,
Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, UK
| | | | - Elena Paoletti
- Institute for Sustainable Plant Protection,
National Research Council, Florence, IT
| | - Alessandra De Marco
- Italian National Agency for New
Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, Rome, IT
| | - Xiaobin Xu
- Key Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of
Atmospheric Composition, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing,
CN
| | - Li Zhang
- Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, CN
| | - Tao Wang
- Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, CN
| | | | | | - David Tarasick
- Air Quality Research Division,
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Downsview, ON, CA
| | - Michael Brauer
- School of Population and Public
Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, CA
| | - Zhaozhong Feng
- Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese
Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN
| | - Haoye Tang
- Institute of Soil Sciences,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, CN
| | - Kazuhiko Kobayashi
- Graduate School of
Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JP
| | - Pierre Sicard
- ACRI-HE, 260 route du Pin
Montard BP234, Sophia Antipolis, FR
| | - Sverre Solberg
- Norwegian Institute for Air
Research (NILU), Kjeller, NO
| | - Giacomo Gerosa
- Dipartimento di Matematica
e Fisica, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Brescia, IT
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Malley CS, Henze DK, Kuylenstierna JCI, Vallack HW, Davila Y, Anenberg SC, Turner MC, Ashmore MR. Updated Global Estimates of Respiratory Mortality in Adults ≥30Years of Age Attributable to Long-Term Ozone Exposure. Environ Health Perspect 2017; 125:087021. [PMID: 28858826 PMCID: PMC5880233 DOI: 10.1289/ehp1390] [Citation(s) in RCA: 95] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2016] [Revised: 06/19/2017] [Accepted: 06/20/2017] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Relative risk estimates for long-term ozone (O3) exposure and respiratory mortality from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II (ACS CPS-II) cohort have been used to estimate global O3-attributable mortality in adults. Updated relative risk estimates are now available for the same cohort based on an expanded study population with longer follow-up. OBJECTIVES We estimated the global burden and spatial distribution of respiratory mortality attributable to long-term O3 exposure in adults ≥30y of age using updated effect estimates from the ACS CPS-II cohort. METHODS We used GEOS-Chem simulations (2×2.5º grid resolution) to estimate annual O3 exposures, and estimated total respiratory deaths in 2010 that were attributable to long-term annual O3 exposure based on the updated relative risk estimates and minimum risk thresholds set at the minimum or fifth percentile of O3 exposure in the most recent CPS-II analysis. These estimates were compared with attributable mortality based on the earlier CPS-II analysis, using 6-mo average exposures and risk thresholds corresponding to the minimum or fifth percentile of O3 exposure in the earlier study population. RESULTS We estimated 1.04-1.23 million respiratory deaths in adults attributable to O3 exposures using the updated relative risk estimate and exposure parameters, compared with 0.40-0.55 million respiratory deaths attributable to O3 exposures based on the earlier CPS-II risk estimate and parameters. Increases in estimated attributable mortality were larger in northern India, southeast China, and Pakistan than in Europe, eastern United States, and northeast China. CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that the potential magnitude of health benefits of air quality policies targeting O3, health co-benefits of climate mitigation policies, and health implications of climate change-driven changes in O3 concentrations, are larger than previously thought. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1390.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher S Malley
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Environment Department, University of York , York, UK
| | - Daven K Henze
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado , Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | | | - Harry W Vallack
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Environment Department, University of York , York, UK
| | - Yanko Davila
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado , Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Susan C Anenberg
- Environmental Health Analytics, LLC. , Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Michelle C Turner
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) , Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF) , Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP) , Madrid, Spain
- McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Mike R Ashmore
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Environment Department, University of York , York, UK
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Malley CS, Kuylenstierna JCI, Vallack HW, Henze DK, Blencowe H, Ashmore MR. Preterm birth associated with maternal fine particulate matter exposure: A global, regional and national assessment. Environ Int 2017; 101:173-182. [PMID: 28196630 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2017.01.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 78] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2016] [Revised: 01/30/2017] [Accepted: 01/31/2017] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Reduction of preterm births (<37 completed weeks of gestation) would substantially reduce neonatal and infant mortality, and deleterious health effects in survivors. Maternal fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure has been identified as a possible risk factor contributing to preterm birth. The aim of this study was to produce the first estimates of ambient PM2.5-associated preterm births for 183 individual countries and globally. To do this, national, population-weighted, annual average ambient PM2.5 concentration, preterm birth rate and number of livebirths were combined to calculate the number of PM2.5-associated preterm births in 2010 for 183 countries. Uncertainty was quantified using Monte-Carlo simulations, and analyses were undertaken to investigate the sensitivity of PM2.5-associated preterm birth estimates to assumptions about the shape of the concentration-response function at low and high PM2.5 exposures, inclusion of provider-initiated preterm births, and exposure to indoor air pollution. Globally, in 2010, the number of PM2.5-associated preterm births was estimated as 2.7 million (1.8-3.5 million, 18% (12-24%) of total preterm births globally) with a low concentration cut-off (LCC) set at 10μgm-3, and 3.4 million (2.4-4.2 million, 23% (16-28%)) with a LCC of 4.3μgm-3. South and East Asia, North Africa/Middle East and West sub-Saharan Africa had the largest contribution to the global total, and the largest percentage of preterm births associated with PM2.5. Sensitivity analyses showed that PM2.5-associated preterm birth estimates were 24% lower when provider-initiated preterm births were excluded, 38-51% lower when risk was confined to the PM2.5 exposure range in the studies used to derive the effect estimate, and 56% lower when mothers who live in households that cook with solid fuels (and whose personal PM2.5 exposure is likely dominated by indoor air pollution) were excluded. The concentration-response function applied here derives from a meta-analysis of studies, most of which were conducted in the US and Europe, and its application to the areas of the world where we estimate the greatest effects on preterm births remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the substantial percentage of preterm births estimated to be associated with anthropogenic PM2.5 (18% (13%-24%) of total preterm births globally) indicates that reduction of maternal PM2.5 exposure through emission reduction strategies should be considered alongside mitigation of other risk factors associated with preterm births.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher S Malley
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Environment Department, University of York, York, United Kingdom.
| | - Johan C I Kuylenstierna
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Environment Department, University of York, York, United Kingdom
| | - Harry W Vallack
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Environment Department, University of York, York, United Kingdom
| | - Daven K Henze
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States
| | - Hannah Blencowe
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive, and Child Health Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Mike R Ashmore
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Environment Department, University of York, York, United Kingdom
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Malley CS, Heal MR, Braban CF, Kentisbeer J, Leeson SR, Malcolm H, Lingard JJN, Ritchie S, Maggs R, Beccaceci S, Quincey P, Brown RJC, Twigg MM. The contributions to long-term health-relevant particulate matter at the UK EMEP supersites between 2010 and 2013: Quantifying the mitigation challenge. Environ Int 2016; 95:98-111. [PMID: 27557590 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2016.08.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2016] [Revised: 08/12/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Human health burdens associated with long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) are substantial. The metrics currently recommended by the World Health Organization for quantification of long-term health-relevant PM are the annual average PM10 and PM2.5 mass concentrations, with no low concentration threshold. However, within an annual average, there is substantial variation in the composition of PM associated with different sources. To inform effective mitigation strategies, therefore, it is necessary to quantify the conditions that contribute to annual average PM10 and PM2.5 (rather than just short-term episodic concentrations). PM10, PM2.5, and speciated water-soluble inorganic, carbonaceous, heavy metal and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon components are concurrently measured at the two UK European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) 'supersites' at Harwell (SE England) and Auchencorth Moss (SE Scotland). In this work, statistical analyses of these measurements are integrated with air-mass back trajectory data to characterise the 'chemical climate' associated with the long-term health-relevant PM metrics at these sites. Specifically, the contributions from different PM concentrations, months, components and geographic regions are detailed. The analyses at these sites provide policy-relevant conclusions on mitigation of (i) long-term health-relevant PM in the spatial domain for which these sites are representative, and (ii) the contribution of regional background PM to long-term health-relevant PM. At Harwell the mean (±1 sd) 2010-2013 annual average concentrations were PM10=16.4±1.4μgm(-3) and PM2.5=11.9±1.1μgm(-3) and at Auchencorth PM10=7.4±0.4μgm(-3) and PM2.5=4.1±0.2μgm(-3). The chemical climate state at each site showed that frequent, moderate hourly PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations (defined as approximately 5-15μgm(-3) for PM10 and PM2.5 at Harwell and 5-10μgm(-3) for PM10 at Auchencorth) determined the magnitude of annual average PM10 and PM2.5 to a greater extent than the relatively infrequent high, episodic PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations. These moderate PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were derived across the range of chemical components, seasons and air-mass pathways, in contrast to the highest PM concentrations which tended to associate with specific conditions. For example, the largest contribution to moderate PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations - the secondary inorganic aerosol components, specifically NO3(-) - were accumulated during the arrival of trajectories traversing the spectrum of marine, UK, and continental Europe areas. Mitigation of the long-term health-relevant PM impact in the regions characterised by these two sites requires multilateral action, across species (and hence source sectors), both nationally and internationally; there is no dominant determinant of the long-term PM metrics to target.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher S Malley
- NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB, UK; School of Chemistry, University of Edinburgh, David Brewster Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FJ, UK.
| | - Mathew R Heal
- School of Chemistry, University of Edinburgh, David Brewster Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FJ, UK
| | | | - John Kentisbeer
- NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB, UK
| | - Sarah R Leeson
- NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB, UK
| | - Heath Malcolm
- NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB, UK
| | - Justin J N Lingard
- Ricardo Energy & Environment, The Gemini Building, Fermi Avenue, Harwell, Didcot OX11 0QR, UK
| | - Stuart Ritchie
- Ricardo Energy & Environment, The Gemini Building, Fermi Avenue, Harwell, Didcot OX11 0QR, UK
| | - Richard Maggs
- Bureau Veritas, Fifth Floor, 66 Prescot Street, London, E1 8HG, UK
| | - Sonya Beccaceci
- Environment Division, National Physical Laboratory, Hampton Road, Teddington, Middlesex TW11 0LW, UK
| | - Paul Quincey
- Environment Division, National Physical Laboratory, Hampton Road, Teddington, Middlesex TW11 0LW, UK
| | - Richard J C Brown
- Environment Division, National Physical Laboratory, Hampton Road, Teddington, Middlesex TW11 0LW, UK
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