Development of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform - Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to assess air quality and climate co-benefits: Application for Bangladesh

Low- and middle-income countries have the largest health burdens associated with air pollution exposure, and are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Substantial opportunities have been identified to simultaneously improve air quality and mitigate climate change due to overlapping sources of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions and because a subset of pollutants, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), directly contribute to both impacts. However, planners in low- and middle-income countries often lack practical tools to quantify the air pollution and climate change impacts of different policies and measures. This paper presents a modelling framework implemented in the Low Emissions Analysis Platform - Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to develop integrated strategies to improve air quality, human health and mitigate climate change. The framework estimates emissions of greenhouse gases, SLCPs and air pollutants for historical years, and future projections for baseline and mitigation scenarios. These emissions are then used to quantify i) population-weighted annual average ambient PM_2.5 concentrations across the target country, ii) household PM_2.5 exposure of different population groups living in households cooking using different fuels/technologies and iii) radiative forcing from all emissions. Health impacts (premature mortality) attributable to ambient and household PM_2.5 exposure and changes in global average temperature change are then estimated. This framework is applied in Bangladesh to evaluate the air quality and climate change benefits from implementation of Bangladesh's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and National Action Plan to reduce SLCPs. Results show that the measures included to reduce GHGs in Bangladesh's NDC also have substantial benefits for air quality and human health. Full implementation of Bangladesh's NDC, and National SLCP Plan would reduce carbon dioxide, methane, black carbon and primary PM_2.5 emissions by 25%, 34%, 46% and 45%, respectively in 2030 compared to a baseline scenario. These emission reductions could reduce population-weighted ambient PM_2.5 concentrations in Bangladesh by 18% in 2030, and avoid approximately 12,000 and 100,000 premature deaths attributable to ambient and household PM_2.5 exposures, respectively, in 2030. As countries are simultaneously planning to achieve the climate goals in the Paris Agreement, improve air quality to reduce health impacts and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, the LEAP-IBC tool provides a practical framework by which planners can develop integrated strategies, achieving multiple air quality and climate benefits.

Global air quality and health co-benefits of mitigating near-term climate change through methane and black carbon emission controls

BACKGROUND

Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM(2.5)), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20-40 years.

METHODS

We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM(2.5) and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM(2.5)- and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration-response functions.

RESULTS

We estimated that, for PM(2.5) and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23-34% and 7-17% and avoid 0.6-4.4 and 0.04-0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM(2.5) relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration-response function.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.

N deposition as a threat to the World's protected areas under the Convention on Biological Diversity

This paper combines the world's protected areas (PAs) under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), common classification systems of ecosystem conservation status, and current knowledge on ecosystem responses to nitrogen (N) deposition to determine areas most at risk. The results show that 40% (approx. 11% of total area) of PAs currently receive >10 kg N/ha/yr with projections for 2030 indicating that this situation is not expected to change. Furthermore, 950 PAs are projected to receive >30 kg N/ha/yr by 2030 (approx. twice the 2000 number), of which 62 (approx. 11,300 km(2)) are also Biodiversity Hotspots and G200 ecoregions; with forest and grassland ecosystems in Asia particularly at risk. Many of these sites are known to be sensitive to N deposition effects, both in terms of biodiversity changes and ecosystem services they provide. Urgent assessment of high risk areas identified in this study is recommended to inform the conservation efforts of the CBD.

Soil sensitivity to acidification in Asia: status and prospects

Exceedance of steady-state critical loads for soil acidification is consistently found in southern China and parts of SE Asia, but there is no evidence of impacts outside of China. This study describes a methodology for calculating the time to effects for soils sensitive to acidic deposition in Asia under potential future sulfur (S), nitrogen (N), and calcium (Ca) emission scenarios. The calculations are matched to data availability in Asia to produce regional-scale maps that provide estimates of the time (y) it will take for soil base saturation to reach a critical limit of 20% in response to acidic inputs. The results show that sensitive soil types in areas of South, Southeast, and East Asia, including parts of southern China, Burma, Hainan, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Western Ghats of India, may acidify to a significant degree on a 0-50 y timescale, depending on individual site management and abiotic and biotic characteristics. To make a clearer assessment of risk, site-specific data are required for soil chemistry and deposition (especially base cation deposition); S and N retention in soils and ecosystems; and biomass harvesting and weathering rates from sites across Asia representative of different soil and vegetation types and management regimes. National and regional assessments of soils using the simple methods described in this paper can provide an appreciation of the time dimension of soil acidification-related impacts and should be useful in planning further studies and, possibly, implementing measures to reduce risks of acidification.

Can the foliar nitrogen concentration of upland vegetation be used for predicting atmospheric nitrogen deposition? Evidence from field surveys

The deposition of atmospheric nitrogen can be enhanced at high altitude sites as a consequence of cloud droplet deposition and orographic enhancement of wet deposition on hills. The degree to which the increased deposition of nitrogen influences foliar nitrogen concentration in a range of upland plant species was studied in a series of field surveys in northern Britain. A range of upland plant species sampled along altitudinal transects at sites of known atmospheric nitrogen deposition showed marked increases in foliar nitrogen concentration with increasing nitrogen deposition and altitude (and hence with decreasing temperature). For Nardus stricta L., Deschampsia flexuosa (L.) Trin., Calluna vulgaris (L.) Hull, Erica cinerea L. and Hylocomium splendens (Hedw.) Br. Eur. on an unpolluted hill, foliar nitrogen increased by 0.07, 0.12, 0.15, 0.08 and 0.04% dry weight respectively for each 1 kg ha(-1) year(-1) increase in nitrogen deposition. Most species showed an approximately linear relationship between foliar nitrogen concentration and altitude but no trend with altitude for foliar phosphorus concentration. This provided evidence that the tissue nutrient status of upland plants reflects nutrient availability rather than the direct effects of climate on growth. However, differences in the relationship between foliar nitrogen concentration and atmospheric nitrogen deposition for N. stricta sampled on hills in contrasting pollution climates show that the possibility of temperature-mediated growth effects on foliar nitrogen concentration should not be ignored. Thus, there is potential to use upland plant species as biomonitors of nitrogen deposition, but the response of different species to nitrogen addition, in combination with climatic effects on growth, must be well characterised.

Differential responses of UK upland plants to nitrogen deposition

Native upland species, Nardus stricta, Eriophorum vaginatum, Erica cinerea and Vaccinium vitis-idaea were given 3 or 60 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1 , over 2 yr, applied as a mist (NH₄ NO₃ ). The high N treatment increased above-ground biomass in all four species, but only significantly in E. cinerea, E. vaginatum and N. stricta. Biomass increases in E. vaginatum and N. stricta resulted from enhanced tiller production rather than shoot elongation. Root growth increased in N. stricta, so that root∶shoot ratio in this species was unchanged by N. Root growth in E. vaginatum, E. cinerea and V. vitis-idaea did not respond to N and their root∶shoot ratios decreased. Tissue N concentrations increased in both shoots and roots of all species in response to N. The accumulated foliar N did not increase the proportion of N allocated to Rubisco and the photosynthetic capacities of N. stricta, E. vaginatum and V. vitis-idaea were unchanged. Thus growth responses to N were due to altered allocation rather than increased rate of photosynthesis per unit leaf area. The high N treatment increased flower production significantly in E. cinerea but not in the other species. Although in this experiment dwarf shrubs were more responsive than graminoids to N, in the field at current N inputs the enhanced tillering of the graminoids may be more competitively advantageous, especially where gaps develop in the canopy. Thus increasing N deposition may lead to increased grassiness of upland heath, and in particular, a spread of N. stricta.