An artificial intelligence-generated model predicts 90-day survival in alcohol-associated hepatitis: A global cohort study

BACKGROUND AIMS

Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled AH patients per NIAAA criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day post-admission mortality, three AI algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined via Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce post-test probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence (ALCHAIN) Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30-day) and 27.9% (90-day) in the derivation cohort, versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779 - 0.844) and 0.799 (0.769 - 0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, MELD variations, ABIC, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p<0.001). ALCHAIN Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCHAIN Ensemble score>0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Harnessing AI within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.

Prevalence and clinical impact of alcohol withdrawal syndrome in alcohol-associated hepatitis and the potential role of prophylaxis: a multinational, retrospective cohort study

Background

The prevalence and impact of alcohol withdrawal syndrome (AWS) in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) are unknown. In this study, we aimed to investigate the prevalence, predictors, management, and clinical impact of AWS in patients hospitalized with AH.

Methods

A multinational, retrospective cohort study enrolling patients hospitalized with AH at 5 medical centres in Spain and in the USA was performed between January 1st, 2016 to January 31st, 2021. Data were retrospectively retrieved from electronic health records. Diagnosis of AWS was based on clinical criteria and use of sedatives to control AWS symptoms. The primary outcome was mortality. Multivariable models controlling for demographic variables and disease severity were performed to determine predictors of AWS (adjusted odds ratio [OR]) and the impact of AWS condition and management on clinical outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]).

Findings

In total, 432 patients were included. The median MELD score at admission was 21.9 (18.3-27.3). The overall prevalence of AWS was 32%. Lower platelet levels (OR = 1.61, 95% CI 1.05-2.48) and previous history of AWS (OR = 2.09, 95% CI 1.31-3.33) were associated with a higher rate of incident AWS, whereas the use of prophylaxis decreased the risk (OR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.36-0.93). The use of intravenous benzodiazepines (HR = 2.18, 95% CI 1.02-4.64) and phenobarbital (HR = 2.99, 95% CI 1.07-8.37) for AWS treatment were independently associated with a higher mortality. The development of AWS increased the rate of infections (OR = 2.24, 95% CI 1.44-3.49), the need for mechanical ventilation (OR = 2.49, 95% CI 1.38-4.49), and ICU admission (OR = 1.96, 95% CI 1.19-3.23). Finally, AWS was associated with higher 28-day (HR = 2.31, 95% CI 1.40-3.82), 90-day (HR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.18-2.69), and 180-day mortality (HR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.06-2.24).

Interpretation

AWS commonly occurs in patients hospitalized with AH and complicates the hospitalization course. Routine prophylaxis is associated with a lower prevalence of AWS. Prospective studies should determine diagnostic criteria and prophylaxis regimens for AWS management in patients with AH.

Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Reengagement strategies for hepatitis C patients lost to follow-up: A randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To achieve the World Health Organization's goal of eliminating HCV by 2030, reengagement of lost to follow-up cases is mandatory. However, there is lack of evidence concerning the best strategy. Our study evaluated the effectiveness, efficiency, predictive factors, and costs of 2 different strategies.

METHODS

We identified patients positive for HCV antibodies without RNA requests from 2005 to 2018. Patients fulfilling trial criteria (NCT04153708) were randomized to (1) phone call or (2) letter of invitation to schedule an appointment, followed by switching strategy.

RESULTS

Three hundred forty-five patients among 1167 lost to follow-up were identified. An analysis of the first 270 randomized patients (72% male, 51±13 y) showed a higher contact rate in the mail than in the phone call strategy (84.5% vs. 50.3%). In the intention-to-treat analysis, no differences were found related to appointment attendance (26.5% vs. 28.5%). Regarding efficiency, 3.1 letters and 8 phone calls were needed to successfully link 1 patient (p<0.001) but dropped down to 2.3 phone calls if we only considered the first call attempt (p=0.008). Prior specialist's evaluation and HCV testing in the predirect-acting antiviral era were the only factors associated with no showing up for the appointment. The cost per patient was €621.3 (2.5 quality-adjusted life-years) in the phone call strategy and €611.8 (2.4 quality-adjusted life-years) in the mail letter strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Reengagement of patients with HCV is feasible, and equally effective with similar costs in both strategies. The mail letter was more efficient, except when only 1 phone call was considered. Prior specialist's evaluation and testing in the predirect-acting antiviral era were factors associated with nonattendance to the appointment.

Chronic intermittent hypoxia promotes early intrahepatic endothelial impairment in rats with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a progressive disease that ranges from simple steatosis to cirrhosis. Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) and chronic intermittent hypoxia (CIH) are implicated in the pathogenesis of NAFLD. However, the overlapping consequences of CIH on liver sinusoidal endothelial function over time in NAFLD are largely unknown. We explored endothelial dysfunction in a rat model of NAFLD with a high-fat diet exposed to CIH [12 h/day, every 30 s to fractional concentration of oxygen ([Formula: see text] 8%-10%]. The livers were isolated and perfused, and the endothelial function was determined by testing the vasodilation of the liver circulation to increased concentrations of acetylcholine and von Willebrand factor (vWF) and intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1) expression. Phosphorylated endothelial nitric oxide synthase (p-eNOS), cGMP, and oxidative stress were assessed to determine nitric oxide bioavailability. Inflammation and fibrosis were evaluated by transaminases, myeloperoxidase activity, hydroxyproline, and histological evaluation. Hypoxia-inducible factors (HIFs) were studied as a marker of hypoxia and after a second insult with acetaminophen. CIH exposure provoked typical systemic features of OSAS and provoked a decreased response in vasodilation to acetylcholine. This was associated with increased oxidative stress and reduced p-eNOS and cGMP. The microcirculation impairment due to CIH preceded significant hepatic inflammation and fibrotic changes, despite the presence of HIF expression. In conclusion, CIH exacerbates endothelial dysfunction in NAFLD rats associated with increased oxidative stress and reduced nitric oxide bioavailability. This occurs before inflammation and fibrosis establish. Our results suggest that with CIH endothelial dysfunction should be considered an early target.NEW & NOTEWORTHY We believe the findings are of relevance because we demonstrate that chronic intermittent hypoxia further augments impaired hepatic endothelial dysfunction in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease rats. Because obstructive sleep apnea syndrome is associated with systemic endothelial dysfunction in cardiovascular disorders, and chronic intermittent hypoxia is an independent and reversible risk factor for hypertension and coronary artery disease, we hypothesized that this entity may be of potential relevance in the pathophysiology of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Identification of optimal therapeutic window for steroid use in severe alcohol-associated hepatitis: A worldwide study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Corticosteroids are the only effective therapy for severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), defined by a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score >20. However, there are patients who may be too sick to benefit from therapy. Herein, we aimed to identify the range of MELD scores within which steroids are effective for AH.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective, international multicenter cohort study across 4 continents, including 3,380 adults with a clinical and/or histological diagnosis of AH. The main outcome was mortality at 30 days. We used a discrete-time survival analysis model, and MELD cut-offs were established using the transform-the-endpoints method.

RESULTS

In our cohort, median age was 49 (40-56) years, 76.5% were male, and 79% had underlying cirrhosis. Median MELD at admission was 24 (19-29). Survival was 88% (87-89) at 30 days, 77% (76-78) at 90 days, and 72% (72-74) at 180 days. A total of 1,225 patients received corticosteroids. In an adjusted-survival-model, corticosteroid use decreased 30-day mortality by 41% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.59; 0.47-0.74; p <0.001). Steroids only improved survival in patients with MELD scores between 21 (HR 0.61; 0.39-0.95; p = 0.027) and 51 (HR 0.72; 0.52-0.99; p = 0.041). The maximum effect of corticosteroid treatment (21-30% survival benefit) was observed with MELD scores between 25 (HR 0.58; 0.42-0.77; p <0.001) and 39 (HR 0.57; 0.41-0.79; p <0.001). No corticosteroid benefit was seen in patients with MELD >51. The type of corticosteroids used (prednisone, prednisolone, or methylprednisolone) was not associated with survival benefit (p = 0.247).

CONCLUSION

Corticosteroids improve 30-day survival only among patients with severe AH, especially with MELD scores between 25 and 39.

LAY SUMMARY

Alcohol-associated hepatitis is a condition where the liver is severely inflamed as a result of excess alcohol use. It is associated with high mortality and it is not clear whether the most commonly used treatments (corticosteroids) are effective, particularly in patients with very severe liver disease. In this worldwide study, the use of corticosteroids was associated with increased 30-day, but not 90- or 180-day, survival. The maximal benefit was observed in patients with an MELD score (a marker of severity of liver disease; higher scores signify worse disease) between 25-39. However, this benefit was lost in patients with the most severe liver disease (MELD score higher than 51).

Hepatitis C virus media coverage favorably impacts on antibody testing in the non-interferon era

BACKGROUND

In the non-interferon era, many patients still remain untested for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Our aim was to determine if media coverage, number and type of news, can influence the rate of HCV testing.

METHODS

For each calendar year we searched from national, regional and local newspapers for articles published related to HCV between 2001 and 2013 (interferon era) and 2014-2018 (non-interferon era) and the HCV tests performed. Demographics, provider data and test result were collected from patients tested.

RESULTS

During the studied period, 21 913 press articles were found, and we identified a total of 293 226 HCV tests. A total of 9778 HCV tests from 5237 patients tested positive (1.88%). An inverse correlation was found between media coverage and the number of HCV tests during the interferon era (r2 = -0.558, P = 0.024), where news concerning epidemiology and burden of the disease were more frequent. By contrast, in the non-interferon era a strong correlation was observed (r2 = 0.900, P = 0.019), where news related to treatment prevailed.

CONCLUSION

Our results show that media coverage on HCV fluctuate so the type of news. It remains to be prospectively evaluated if well designed publicity campaigns about the benefits of HCV screening and treatment influences on HCV testing.

Hepatitis C-treated patients as a potential source for referral of new cases

INTRODUCTION

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are an opportunity for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. Strategies are needed to diagnose new patients and to attract those diagnosed without evaluation. Patients with other chronic viral diseases who receive satisfactory treatment promote referral of other patients for evaluation. Our aim was to evaluate whether patients who have been treated with DAAs would recommend follow-up and treatment to other patients as well as the characteristics that influence this decision.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Two-hundred and 2HCV-infected patients treated with DAAs were included. Patients were asked about whether they knew other infected people and their willingness to share their experience. A general satisfaction survey and a specific HCV satisfaction survey were carried out. Demographic, socioeconomic and HCV infection variables were recorded.

RESULTS

Despite the fact that 54.4% of the patients reported knowing others infected, 34.2% would not fully agree to share their experience. The analysis of general and specific satisfaction showed that patients who shared their experience mentioned a perception of greater care from the specialist (4.7±0.4 vs. 4.3±0.6, P=.001) and had more information on treatment expectations (4.6±0.5 vs. 4.0±0.7, P=.001) and social support (4.5±0.7 vs. 4.0±0.8, P=.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The perception by treated patients of general satisfaction with the healthcare process and information about benefits influences the degree of recommendation to other infected people. Knowledge about treatment and perception of improvement in health of treated patients should be enhanced as it can contribute to increasing referrals to specialized consultation.

Integrated Multiomics Reveals Glucose Use Reprogramming and Identifies a Novel Hexokinase in Alcoholic Hepatitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We recently showed that alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is characterized by dedifferentiation of hepatocytes and loss of mature functions. Glucose metabolism is tightly regulated in healthy hepatocytes. We hypothesize that AH may lead to metabolic reprogramming of the liver, including dysregulation of glucose metabolism.

METHODS

We performed integrated metabolomic and transcriptomic analyses of liver tissue from patients with AH or alcoholic cirrhosis or normal liver tissue from hepatic resection. Focused analyses of chromatin immunoprecipitation coupled to DNA sequencing was performed. Functional in vitro studies were performed in primary rat and human hepatocytes and HepG2 cells.

RESULTS

Patients with AH exhibited specific changes in the levels of intermediates of glycolysis/gluconeogenesis, the tricarboxylic acid cycle, and monosaccharide and disaccharide metabolism. Integrated analysis of the transcriptome and metabolome showed the used of alternate energetic pathways, metabolite sinks and bottlenecks, and dysregulated glucose storage in patients with AH. Among genes involved in glucose metabolism, hexokinase domain containing 1 (HKDC1) was identified as the most up-regulated kinase in patients with AH. Histone active promoter and enhancer markers were increased in the HKDC1 genomic region. High HKDC1 levels were associated with the development of acute kidney injury and decreased survival. Increased HKDC1 activity contributed to the accumulation of glucose-6-P and glycogen in primary rat hepatocytes.

CONCLUSIONS

Altered metabolite levels and messenger RNA expression of metabolic enzymes suggest the existence of extensive reprogramming of glucose metabolism in AH. Increased HKDC1 expression may contribute to dysregulated glucose metabolism and represents a novel biomarker and therapeutic target for AH.

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on liver cancer management (CERO-19)

Background & Aims

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to healthcare systems and it may have heavily impacted patients with liver cancer (LC). Herein, we evaluated whether the schedule of LC screening or procedures has been interrupted or delayed because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

An international survey evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on clinical practice and clinical trials from March 2020 to June 2020, as the first phase of a multicentre, international, and observational project. The focus was on patients with hepatocellular carcinoma or intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, cared for around the world during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave.

Results

Ninety-one centres expressed interest to participate and 76 were included in the analysis, from Europe, South America, North America, Asia, and Africa (73.7%, 17.1%, 5.3%, 2.6%, and 1.3% per continent, respectively). Eighty-seven percent of the centres modified their clinical practice: 40.8% the diagnostic procedures, 80.9% the screening programme, 50% cancelled curative and/or palliative treatments for LC, and 41.7% modified the liver transplantation programme. Forty-five out of 69 (65.2%) centres in which clinical trials were running modified their treatments in that setting, but 58.1% were able to recruit new patients. The phone call service was modified in 51.4% of centres which had this service before the COVID-19 pandemic (n = 19/37).

Conclusions

The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic had a tremendous impact on the routine care of patients with liver cancer. Modifications in screening, diagnostic, and treatment algorithms may have significantly impaired the outcome of patients. Ongoing data collection and future analyses will report the benefits and disadvantages of the strategies implemented, aiding future decision-making.

Lay summary

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to healthcare systems globally. Herein, we assessed the impact of the first wave pandemic on patients with liver cancer and found that routine care for these patients has been majorly disrupted, which could have a significant impact on outcomes.

Predictive factors for not undergoing RNA testing in patients found to have hepatitis C serology and impact of an automatic alert

The process of diagnosis and linkage to care in cases of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains an obstacle to disease control. The aims of this study were to evaluate predictive factors for not undergoing RNA testing among patients with positive HCV serology and impact of incorporating an automated electronic alert with recommendations in clinical practice. We collected HCV antibody tests requested from October 2011 to September 2014 to evaluate the rate of RNA testing and predictive factors for not undergoing RNA testing. Since October 2014, an automated alert notification has been implemented to remind physicians for testing RNA after a positive HCV test and referral to specialist care. 41 403 HCV antibody tests were requested from 34 073 patients. 870 (2.55%) patients tested positive. After a median of follow-up of 57.0 months (range 45.6-82.1), 37.6% did not have RNA testing. The independent predictors for not undergoing RNA testing were primary care serology requests (P < 0.001), no history of drug use (P = 0.005) and a lack of social support (P = 0.015). The intervention impact was evaluated in a pre-alert cohort (October 2011-September 2014) and a post-alert cohort (October 2014-September 2015). After the incorporation of the alert, the rate of RNA testing increased from 62.4% to 77.7% (P < 0.001). Incomplete assessment of HCV infection is a challenge in primary care. The implementation of an automated alert for recommending RNA testing after a positive HCV antibody test is feasible in clinical practice and increases the rate of patients with RNA testing.