Exploring the effects of habitat management on grassland biodiversity: A case study from northern Serbia

Grasslands represent a biodiversity hotspot in the European agricultural landscape, their restoration is necessary and offers a great opportunity to mitigate or halt harmful processes. These measures require a comprehensive knowledge of historical landscape changes, but also adequate management strategies. The required data was gathered from the sand grasslands of northern Serbia, as this habitat is of high conservation priority. This area also has a long history of different habitat management approaches (grazing and mowing versus unmanaged), which has been documented over of the last two decades. This dataset enabled us to quantify the effects of different measures across multiple taxa (plants, insect pollinators, and birds). We linked the gathered data on plants, pollinators, and birds with habitat management measures. Our results show that, at the taxon level, the adopted management strategies were beneficial for species richness, abundance, and composition, as the highest diversity of plant, insect pollinator, and bird species was found in managed areas. Thus, an innovative modelling approach was adopted in this work to identify and explain the effects of management practices on changes in habitat communities. The findings yielded can be used in the decision making as well as development of new management programmes. We thus posit that, when restoring and establishing particular communities, priority needs to be given to species with a broad ecological response. We recommend using the decision tree as a suitable machine learning model for this purpose.

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale

Species' range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.

The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.

Stability and changes in the distribution of Pipiza hoverflies (Diptera, Syrphidae) in Europe under projected future climate conditions

Climate change is now considered a significant threat to terrestrial biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are among the modern tools currently used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species. Pipiza Fallén, 1810 is a well known aphidophagous hoverfly genus (Diptera, Syrphidae) at the European level, for which sampling has been conducted across the region, and long-term databases and geo-referenced datasets have been established. Therefore, in this work, we investigated the potential current distributions of the European species of this genus and their response to future climate change scenarios, as well as evaluated stability in their ranges and potential changes in species-richness patterns. We applied three climate models (BCC_CSM1.1, CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES) to four representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5) for two time frames (2050 and 2070). Our results show that the distribution of most Pipiza species may slightly differ under different climate models. Most Pipiza species were predicted not to be greatly affected by climate change, maintaining their current extent. Percentages of stable areas will remain high (above 50%) for the majority of studied species. According to the predicted turnover of species, northern Europe, could become the richest in terms of species diversity, thus replacing Central Europe as the current hot spot.