Change in framingham cardiovascular disease risk between 2003 and 2014 in the hong kong population health survey

Background

The Framingham Risk model estimates a person's 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

Purpose

We aimed to calculate the change in sex-age specific Framingham CVD risk in the Hong Kong Population Health Survey (PHS) 2014/15 in comparison with the survey in 2003–05 (PHS2003/2004 & Heart Health Survey (HHS) 2004/2005).

Methods

Subjects aged 30–74 years from PHS2014/15 (n=1,662, n=4,445,869 after population weighing) and PHS2003/2004 & HHS2004/2005 (n=818, n=3,495,074 after population weighing) with complete data for the calculation of Framingham CVD predicted risk were included. The sex-specific CVD risks of participants were calculated based on their age, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein, mean systolic blood pressure, smoking habits, diabetic status, and treatment for hypertension. The mean sex-age specific CVD risks were then calculated, and the differences in CVD risk between the two surveys were analysed using ANOVA.

Results

There was no significant difference in 10-year CVD risks between the 2003–2005 and 2014/15 study populations (10.2% vs. 10.6%, p=0.29). After adjusting to a standard population (US Census 2000), the age-standardized CVD risk was lower in 2014–2015 than in 2003–05 (10.0% vs. 10.7%, p=0.017). More participants aged 65–74 were classified as high risk during 2003/04 (PHS2003/2004 & HHS2004/2005: 66.8% vs. PHS2014/15: 53.1%, p=0.026). This might be due to the decrease in the proportion of smokers among men (2003–2005: 30.5% vs. 24.0% in 2014–15, p<0.001).

Conclusions

Between 2003/04 and 2014/15, there was a small decrease in age-standardized 10-year CVD risk, which might be related to the reduction in smoking. However, more effort in targeting multiple CVD risk factors simultaneously is needed to achieve a greater reduction in CVD risk.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

SGLT2i as fourth-line therapy and risk of mortality, end-stage renal diseases and cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

AIM

Current guideline recommends insulin as fourth-line glucose-lowering medications. However, treatment effects of sodium glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) on the risk of complications are uncertain. This study examines risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and end-stage renal diseases (ESRD) in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients on triple oral glucose-lowering medications initiating SGLT2i, insulin or other oral medications.

METHODS

A population-based retrospective cohort of patients with T2DM between 2006-2017 was extracted from Hong Kong Hospital Authority database. Patients who were initiated a fourth-line therapy with SGLT2i, insulin or other oral medications were included. Hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality, CVD and ESRD were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up period of 18.5 months with 63,122 person-years, SGLT2i and insulin group had the lowest and highest incidence rate of all-cause mortality, CVD and ESRD (1.06, 0.65 and 0.61 vs 4.25, 5.58 and 4.39/100 person-years), respectively. Initiating SGLT2i as fourth-line medication had more benefits on CVD, in particular coronary heart disease and stroke. Insulin users had higher risks of CVD (HR=8.04, 95%CI=3.06-21.12) than SGLT2i users. SGLT2i was associated with insignificant reduction in ESRD (HR=4.62, 95%CI=0.73-29.09) and all-cause mortality (HR=3.06, 95%CI=0.75-12.45), and HF (HR=2.99, 95%CI=0.37-24.42) among patients without established HF.

CONCLUSION

Among T2DM patients initiating fourth-line therapy, SGLT2i users had significant benefits in lowering risk of CVD, and potential benefits in lowering risks of ESRD and all-cause mortality. SGLT2i was the preferred fourth-line glucose-lowering medication least likely to be associated with complication risks.

Prediction models for the risk of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a serious public health issue worldwide, and DM patients have higher risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), which is the leading cause of DM-related deaths. China has the largest DM population, yet a robust model to predict CVDs in Chinese DM patients is still lacking. This systematic review is carried out to summarize existing models and identify potentially important predictors for CVDs in Chinese DM patients.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review.

METHODS

Medline and Embase were searched for data from April 1st, 2011 to May 31st, 2018. A study was eligible if it developed CVD (defined as total CVD or any major cardiovascular component) risk prediction models or explored potential predictors of CVD specifically for Chinese people with type 2 DM. Standardized forms were utilized to extract information, appraise applicability, risk of bias, and availabilities.

RESULTS

Five models and 29 studies focusing on potential predictors were identified. Models for a primary care setting, or to predict total CVD, are rare. A number of common predictors (e.g. age, sex, diabetes duration, smoking status, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), blood pressure, lipid profile, and treatment modalities) were observed in existing models, in which urine albumin:creatinine ratio (ACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are highly recommended for the Chinese population. Variability of blood pressure (BP) and HbA1c should be included in prediction model development as novel factors. Meanwhile, interactions between age, sex, and risk factors should also be considered.

CONCLUSIONS

A 10-year prediction model for CVD risk in Chinese type 2 DM patients is lacking and urgently needed. There is insufficient evidence to support the inclusion of other novel predictors in CVDs risk prediction functions for routine clinical use.