A census of general surgery consultants in England and Wales: implications for the current and future surgical workforce

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to describe the composition of the current general surgical consultant body in England and Wales and quantify levels of inequality within it as well as describe future workforce challenges.

METHODS

This is an observational study of all general surgical departments in England and Wales. Consultant general surgeons were identified and data regarding their gender, country of undergraduate medical education, subspecialty and private practice were recorded.

RESULTS

Of the 2,682 consultant general surgeons in England and Wales identified for this study, just 17% are women, with gender inequality most marked in university teaching hospitals and among certain subspecialties. Almost 40% of consultants did not obtain their primary undergraduate degree in the United Kingdom and there are considerably fewer surgeons who studied abroad in university teaching hospitals. Over 40% of current general surgical consultants have been qualified for more than three decades and there is no equivalent sized group of younger consultants.

CONCLUSIONS

There remains considerable gender and racial inequality in the consultant general surgical workforce, with pockets of a lack of diversity within university or teaching hospital surgical departments and some subspecialties. The proportion of surgeons in their fourth decade of clinical practice represents the largest group of current practising consultants, which points towards an impending workforce crisis should senior clinicians seek to reduce activity or consider taking early retirement.

Differences in molecular sensitization profiles between a Spanish and Latin American mite allergic patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

To analyze the sensitization pattern to Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus and to associate the diagnostic findings and clinical severity in 218 allergic patients from two different continents.

METHODS

Mite allergic patients were recruited by the Allergology departments from Latin America (n=88: Colombia, Costa Rica and Guatemala) and Spain (N=130). All patients had allergic rhinitis with or without asthma and positive skin prick test results to D. pteronyssinus. Specific IgE levels to D. pteronyssinus, D. farinae, Der p 1, Der p 2, and Der p 23 were quantified by ImmunoCAP system (ThermoFisher Scientific). Allergenic profile was also determined by western blot. Comparative Statistical analysis was performed by GraphPad software.

RESULTS

Patients recognized most frequently Der p 2 (79%) followed by Der p 1 (73%), and Der p 23 (69%) allergens. The percentage of asthmatic patients increases with the number of sensitizations however none statistically significant differences were found. Interestingly, asthmatic patients presented the highest median levels of total IgE and specific IgE levels of D. pteronyssinus and molecular allergens, mainly Der p 2. Analysing the two different populations, Spanish patients were predominantly sensitized to Der p 2 (88.46%) and Der p 1 (83.84%), whereas Latin American population were more sensitized to Der p 23.

CONCLUSION

Our data support the relevance of Der p 2 in mite allergy as the major allergen, with the high number of patients sensitized to it and its importance in the development of asthma. Sensitization to Der p 23 was more important in Latin America.

Masting is uncommon in trees that depend on mutualist dispersers in the context of global climate and fertility gradients

The benefits of masting (volatile, quasi-synchronous seed production at lagged intervals) include satiation of seed predators, but these benefits come with a cost to mutualist pollen and seed dispersers. If the evolution of masting represents a balance between these benefits and costs, we expect mast avoidance in species that are heavily reliant on mutualist dispersers. These effects play out in the context of variable climate and site fertility among species that vary widely in nutrient demand. Meta-analyses of published data have focused on variation at the population scale, thus omitting periodicity within trees and synchronicity between trees. From raw data on 12 million tree-years worldwide, we quantified three components of masting that have not previously been analysed together: (i) volatility, defined as the frequency-weighted year-to-year variation; (ii) periodicity, representing the lag between high-seed years; and (iii) synchronicity, indicating the tree-to-tree correlation. Results show that mast avoidance (low volatility and low synchronicity) by species dependent on mutualist dispersers explains more variation than any other effect. Nutrient-demanding species have low volatility, and species that are most common on nutrient-rich and warm/wet sites exhibit short periods. The prevalence of masting in cold/dry sites coincides with climatic conditions where dependence on vertebrate dispersers is less common than in the wet tropics. Mutualist dispersers neutralize the benefits of masting for predator satiation, further balancing the effects of climate, site fertility and nutrient demands.

PANC Study (Pancreatitis: A National Cohort Study): national cohort study examining the first 30 days from presentation of acute pancreatitis in the UK

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis is a common, yet complex, emergency surgical presentation. Multiple guidelines exist and management can vary significantly. The aim of this first UK, multicentre, prospective cohort study was to assess the variation in management of acute pancreatitis to guide resource planning and optimize treatment.

METHODS

All patients aged greater than or equal to 18 years presenting with acute pancreatitis, as per the Atlanta criteria, from March to April 2021 were eligible for inclusion and followed up for 30 days. Anonymized data were uploaded to a secure electronic database in line with local governance approvals.

RESULTS

A total of 113 hospitals contributed data on 2580 patients, with an equal sex distribution and a mean age of 57 years. The aetiology was gallstones in 50.6 per cent, with idiopathic the next most common (22.4 per cent). In addition to the 7.6 per cent with a diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis, 20.1 per cent of patients had a previous episode of acute pancreatitis. One in 20 patients were classed as having severe pancreatitis, as per the Atlanta criteria. The overall mortality rate was 2.3 per cent at 30 days, but rose to one in three in the severe group. Predictors of death included male sex, increased age, and frailty; previous acute pancreatitis and gallstones as aetiologies were protective. Smoking status and body mass index did not affect death.

CONCLUSION

Most patients presenting with acute pancreatitis have a mild, self-limiting disease. Rates of patients with idiopathic pancreatitis are high. Recurrent attacks of pancreatitis are common, but are likely to have reduced risk of death on subsequent admissions.

EP-235 Improving working conditions of junior surgeons

Aims

Significant exception reporting is reflective of difficult working conditions though well-recognised barriers exist to reporting which may reflect the culture within a unit. This study used exception reporting data to understand and improve the working conditions of juniors.

Methods

Junior surgeons were surveyed in December 2019 to evaluate additional hours worked, reasons for this work and whether exception reports were completed; where they were not, doctors were asked why.

After data analysis, rota structures and surgical teams were changed and formal education about exception reporting given at departmental induction. The main changes involved greater opportunities to take leave and enhanced staffing on evenings and weekends.

Surgical juniors were re-surveyed in September 2021.

Results

In December 2019, 49.2 additional hours were worked between 18 juniors. No exception reports were completed with the main reasons being a personal decision to stay late (for training opportunities), lack of understanding on how to report and cultural issues that made juniors unsure about how exception reports would be viewed.

In September 2021, only 30 additional hours were worked between 17 respondents. Again, no exception reports were completed with over 95% of respondents citing a personal decision to stay late. Cultural issues within the department were no longer cited and knowledge of how to exception report was greatly increased.

Conclusions

A positive and open culture, where consultants and surgical leaders engage with juniors about rotas and working conditions can lead to a reduction in additional hours and improve the understanding of exception reporting.

Limits to reproduction and seed size-number trade-offs that shape forest dominance and future recovery

The relationships that control seed production in trees are fundamental to understanding the evolution of forest species and their capacity to recover from increasing losses to drought, fire, and harvest. A synthesis of fecundity data from 714 species worldwide allowed us to examine hypotheses that are central to quantifying reproduction, a foundation for assessing fitness in forest trees. Four major findings emerged. First, seed production is not constrained by a strict trade-off between seed size and numbers. Instead, seed numbers vary over ten orders of magnitude, with species that invest in large seeds producing more seeds than expected from the 1:1 trade-off. Second, gymnosperms have lower seed production than angiosperms, potentially due to their extra investments in protective woody cones. Third, nutrient-demanding species, indicated by high foliar phosphorus concentrations, have low seed production. Finally, sensitivity of individual species to soil fertility varies widely, limiting the response of community seed production to fertility gradients. In combination, these findings can inform models of forest response that need to incorporate reproductive potential.

Globally, tree fecundity exceeds productivity gradients

Lack of tree fecundity data across climatic gradients precludes the analysis of how seed supply contributes to global variation in forest regeneration and biotic interactions responsible for biodiversity. A global synthesis of raw seedproduction data shows a 250-fold increase in seed abundance from cold-dry to warm-wet climates, driven primarily by a 100-fold increase in seed production for a given tree size. The modest (threefold) increase in forest productivity across the same climate gradient cannot explain the magnitudes of these trends. The increase in seeds per tree can arise from adaptive evolution driven by intense species interactions or from the direct effects of a warm, moist climate on tree fecundity. Either way, the massive differences in seed supply ramify through food webs potentially explaining a disproportionate role for species interactions in the wet tropics.

132 Improving the Long Term Follow Up of Bisphosphonates in the Community

Aim

Bisphosphonates are generally first line treatment for osteoporosis in primary care. However, long term bisphosphonate use has been associated with atypical femoral fractures. Therefore, it is recommended that bisphosphonates are reviewed every 3–5 years. This study set out to assess and improve the long term follow up of bisphosphonates in a GP practice in Leeds.

Method

System One was searched to identify patients prescribed alendronic acid or risedronate in January and February of 2021 from Aire Valley Surgery, a GP practice in Leeds. These patient’s notes were then used to see if they had planned bisphosphate follow up and if this was via a script note, scheduled task, or recall. In March of 2021 a teaching session on osteoporosis and bisphosphonates was delivered to GPs working at the practice. GPs were also asked to make sure that they planned follow up when prescribing bisphosphonates via a script note. System One was searched again to identify patients prescribed alendronic acid or risedronate in April and May of 2021.

Results

Prior to the teaching session 47.9% of patients had planned follow up with 56.4% via script note, 16.4% via scheduled task and 27.3% via recall. Following the teaching session 48.4% of patients had planned follow up with 73.1% via script note, 13.5% via scheduled task and 13.5% via recall.

Conclusions

This study has identified a group of patients who are taking oral bisphosphonates in the community without planned follow up and are therefore more likely to sustain an atypical femoral fracture.

P-EGS20 Safe emergency laparoscopic cholecystectomy in the first 12 months of the Covid-19 pandemic

Background

The World Health Organisation declared a global pandemic on the 11th March 2020 regarding the COVID-19 infection. This has had a dramatic impact on both acute and elective hospital services that will take a considerable time to recover from. Initial emergency intercollegiate surgical guidance released in March 2020 raised concern regarding laparoscopic surgery and advised to pursue alternative non-surgical or radiological treatment options for the safety of patients and theatre teams. The aim of this study was to assess the safety of emergency laparoscopic cholecystectomy (ELC) for patients presenting to our centre with acute gallstone pathology during the pandemic.

Methods

Retrospective analysis of all cholecystectomies undertaken in the department during the first year of the pandemic from 11th March 2020 to 11th March 2021. This period encapsulated two recognised peaks of the pandemic in the United Kingdom. Demographic data, elective/emergency, operative time, postop ITU admissions due to COVID and COVID related mortality was collected. Operative numbers and times were compared with historical data (HD) from the previous five years over the same time frame.

Results

399 laparoscopic cholecystectomies were performed during the first year of the pandemic which was less than the previous five-year average of 570 cholecystectomies per annum (30% reduction). 247 (61.9%) were performed as an emergency on patients presenting with acute gallstone pathology compared to 35% (HD) performed acutely on average historically. Average age was 56 yrs (16-88 range). Average operative time for ELC during the pandemic was 69 minutes compared to 78 minutes HD (NS). No patients were admitted to ITU with post-operative Covid infections and there were no 30 day post-operative deaths.      

Conclusions

We performed more ELC’s in the first year of the pandemic compared to the previous five-year average as we were conscious of the inevitable long waiting lists, we would certainly be faced with in the coming months. The Covid-19 pandemic was a global healthcare crisis and one the NHS had never encountered before. At the time there was no high-quality evidence on the safety of laparoscopy on patients presenting acutely. This study adds to the growing body of evidence that with consistent preoperative testing, PPE and appropriate patient flow pathways that emergency laparoscopic cholecystectomies are safe to perform in the current climate.

P-O09 Development of a non face-to-face pre-operative assessment pathway for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background

The Covid-19 pandemic has led to markedly reduced capacity in almost all areas of normal face-to-face activity in our hospitals. Prior to the pandemic, the standard pre-operative pathway for all patients included an initial appointment in the outpatients clinic and formal examination before recommending surgery. With the reality of limited clinic capacity, our unit developed a non face-to-face assessment pathway alongside a parallel green operating area in our local Independent Sector (IS) hospitals for laparoscopic cholecystectomy. This study describes and methodology and outcomes of this approach

Methods

A non face-to-face (telephone) proforma for all new referrals for consideration of laparoscopic cholecystectomy was prepared in April 2020 with the first operations carried out in June 2020. All consultations were carried out by consultant surgeons and included thorough history, careful documentation of previous surgery and duration of symptoms and, where appropriate, patients were told to send images of their abdominal wall if they were unable to describe their scars. The first stage of the consent process was completed at initial appointment and all patients were sent written information about surgery. Patients who had BMI<40, uncomplicated biliary disease (biliary colic, mild cholecystitis, ERCP for CBD stones) and ASA of 1/2 were deemed suitable for surgery in the IS and sent across accordingly.

A telephone pre-assessment was completed by the hospital and patients were sent blood tests forms in the post, as well as a Covid test to be completed at home followed by a period of self isolation before surgery.

All patients were examined on the day of surgery by the operating surgeon and formal consent taken on the day. Primary outcomes that were recorded were cancellation on the day, transfer to the NHS hospital after surgery and complications.

Results

From June 2020 to December 2020, when the contract with the IS changed, 218 patients attended the IS hospitals for planned elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Four patients (2%) did not have surgery (one cancelled as inappropriate for the Independent Sector, two patients whose Covid swab result was not complete and one patient who no longer wished to have surgery). Three patients required transfer to the NHS hospital for post-operative care (drains inserted after unanticipated difficult surgery). 

All patients were given details of the surgical SDEC unit at the NHS hospital to allow ease of admission in the event of any problems or complications. 28 patients (13%) attended SDEC within 30 days after surgery; most had blood tests and clinical assessment alone. One patient (<1%) required re-laparoscopy for abdominal pain three days after their initial surgery (washout alone) and 5 patients developed umbilical wound infections after surgery (antibiotics alone). Two patients were found to have CBD stones on MRCP.

The waiting time from initial assessment to surgery for patients on this pathway was less than 18 weeks for 168 patients though patients who were not suitable for the Independent Sector have had waiting times that are considerably longer.

Conclusions

These results demonstrate that it is possible to plan surgery for laparoscopic cholecystectomy without a face-to-face appointment at all which has considerable implications for resource allocation in the future; indeed, this approach has been continued within our unit even as clinic capacity has increased and been rolled out to patients with inguinal or para-umbilical hernia. Use of a green site away from the acute NHS hospital allowed elective surgery for non-urgent pathology to continue with acceptable waiting times even during the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic though patients who were not suitable have had markedly worse experiences and waiting times.

O-BN09 The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on benign upper GI surgery: The first 12 months at a single centre

Background

The road to recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic has started but no-one knows when it will end. 18 months on from the World Health Organisation declaring a global pandemic on the 11^th March 2020 this has had a dramatic impact on both acute and elective hospital services. Whilst, quite rightly, the focus has been on prioritising cancer resections during the pandemic, many patients awaiting benign operations are facing lengthy waiting times. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on benign upper GI surgery at a single centre compared to previous operating activity levels.

Methods

Retrospective analysis of computerised theatre records for the first 12 months of the pandemic (11^th March 2020-11^th March 2021) were compared to average historical data (HD) over the last five years (2015-2019) over the same time frame. Benign upper Gi operations included were cholecystectomy, anti-reflux/hiatus hernia repairs, cardiomyotomies and bariatric procedures.

Results

Conclusions

The Covid-19 pandemic has dramatically affected benign upper GI surgery at our unit. Overall total operation numbers were down by 31% when compared to HD (440 vs 641). The largest deficit was in bariatrics where no bariatric surgery was performed during the first 12 months of the pandemic, which has restarted as of July 2021. There was also a 30% reduction in the number of cholecystectomies performed likely due to initial guidance recommending non-operative management at the start of the pandemic. Hiatal work numbers remained consistent. This quantitative study can direct future service delivery and help guide the post-pandemic recovery.

P-B04 Restarting bariatric surgery after the Covid-19 pandemic: a template for safe practice

Background

Bariatric surgery virtually ceased with the advent of the Covid-19 pandemic and has been amongst the last sector of operative practice to restart. There have been understandable concerns about restarting bariatric surgery including the risks to patients of contracting Covid infection in the peri-operative period, potential de-skilling of surgeons and theatre teams and the appropriateness of directing scarce and limited resources to bariatric surgery when every surgical specialty is experiencing rapidly rising waiting times and ever lengthening waiting lists. 

This study describes the restart programme at our NHS bariatric unit and offers a template for safe commencement of complex benign surgeries in the current era.

Methods

In the months after the pandemic started, our Bariatric MDT reviewed every case on the waiting list and contacted each patient to explain the current waiting times and the importance of not gaining weight to be eligible for surgery when surgical practice resumed. Group education and Support Group sessions were moved from face-to-face appointments to online classrooms and regular input was sought from specialist dieticians, nurses and psychologists.

The expected waiting times for patients was pro-actively submitted to the Executive Board of the Trust with details about >104-week waiting patients being clearly articulated.

Once approval was given to restart bariatric surgery, every patient was assessed and prioritised in terms of waiting time and clinical need. A bariatric theatre team was brought together and engaged in pre-operative training and a local refresher course on equipment and the planned surgeries. There was engagement with industry to provide on-the-ground support for the first lists to ensure proper and safe use of energy and stapling devices. Each list had two consultant surgeons assigned to it and just two cases per day were planned and patients were managed on an entirely green pathway within the NHS hospital .

Results

The bariatric restart programme commenced in May 2021; between May 2021 and August 2021, there have been 27 operations carried out (25 Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, 2 sleeve gastrectomy) and two cancellations on the day (both due to patient choice). Each operating list finished between two and three hours before the planned finish time. Formal debrief sessions after each list identified no problems with the operations of the equipment and none of the patients had any post-operative complications. Length of stay was between 1 to 2 days for the entire cohort. 

Since the restart programme commenced, the requirement for dual consultant operating has ceased and the last 5 cases have been entirely training cases for the operating registrar, again without complication. Each list is now planned to increase to pre-pandemic levels of activity with four cases per list.

Conclusions

Restarting complex benign surgical practice is complicated and requires engagement with management, theatre and nursing colleagues to ensure that cases are not ‘left behind'. It is important to reduce the risk of complications and of peri-operative covid-19 infection in bariatric patients and development of a pathway that all members of the theatre team have input in to meant that there were few problems or issues with either the planning of the lists or the running of the lists. Such an approach could be considered for restarting any high volume, complex benign surgical practice.

P-O15 “Knife to Skin” time: The invariable variable

Background

The Covid-19 pandemic has affected all aspects of healthcare globally. Theatre utilisation assumes a substantial proportion of hospital resources, creating a streamlined pathway increases efficiency and productivity. With concerns regarding aerosol generating procedures, viral transmission to health care workers in theatre and patient pathways through the hospitals the covid-19 pandemic has added another dimension to the theatre pathway. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of Covid-19 on the “knife to skin” (KTS) time and compare it to previous historical data (HD).  

Methods

Retrospective analysis of real time theatre data was analysed for the first 12 months of the pandemic from 11th March 2020 to 11th March 2021. To try and minimise variability between different specialities and operations we picked one operation to study: Laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC). Historical data was also gathered from the same time frame over the last 5 years (2015-2020) for comparison. Data collected included emergency or elective, time sent for patient, anaesthetic start time, knife to skin time and duration of operation. Comparison of means were analysed by One-way ANOVA tests and Student’s T-Test.

Results

399 laparoscopic cholecystectomies were performed during the first year of the pandemic. KTS time was calculated as operation start time minus time sent for patient.  Average time during the pandemic for emergency LC KTS was 56 minutes and 35 minutes for elective LC. Comparison of these times to HD revealed no statistical difference (Emergency LC 56 mins vs 58 mins p &gt; 0.05, Elective LC 35 mins vs 35 mins p &gt; 0.05). The anaesthetic time for emergency LC during the pandemic vs HD was 10 mins vs 14 mins (p &lt; 0.05), no statistical difference was found in the elective group, 16mins vs 14mins (p &gt; 0.05)

Conclusions

The Covid-19 pandemic has had no detectable effect on Knife to skin time as compared to our previous historical data. It seems the extra Covid 19 precautions involving PPE, pathways etc. have not affected theatre efficiency or utilisation. In fact, there was very little variance in KTS time over the six years studied (2015-2021) with very consistent levels for both elective and emergency procedures. The shorter anaesthetic time for emergency LC during the pandemic needs to be further investigated but one hypothesis is the unconscious or conscious decision to decrease the amount of preoxygenation to minimise aerosolisation.  

149 Non-Pharmacological Treatment of Bone Health in Fallers

Introduction

1 in 2 women and 1 in 5 men will suffer a fragility fracture. Research into calcium and vitamin D supplements has found no consistent evidence to suggest that they reduce the risk of osteoporotic fractures. There has been little research to suggest that dietary calcium is effective at reducing the risk osteoporotic fractures, but supplements have been linked to increased risk of cardiovascular disease and urinary stones. Bisphosphonates have been shown to reduce the risk of osteoporotic fractures and are usually taken in combination with calcium and vitamin D supplements given that deficiencies must be corrected prior to starting. This study set out to assess the dietary calcium intake of patients who attend the falls clinic and explore their attitudes towards dietary change, as an alternative or adjunct to a calcium and vitamin D tablet.

Methods

Data was collected during private interviews conducted with patients who attended the falls clinic. The Edinburgh University Centre for Genomic and Experimental research (CGEM) food frequency calculator was used to calculate dietary calcium intake. Microsoft Excel was used to collate and analyse the data.

Results

No association was found between dietary calcium intake, age and sex. We did find that mean dietary calcium intake was significantly less than the recommended daily amount for adults with osteoporosis, with 80% not getting their recommended daily intake (p &lt; 0.05). We identified patients who don’t receive a calcium and vitamin D supplement as an at-risk group who would benefit from advice on sources of dietary calcium and 83% of patients said that they would be interested in a leaflet on sources of dietary calcium.

Conclusion

This study has identified a group of patients who will hopefully benefit from a leaflet on sources of dietary calcium and as result improve their bone health.

Author Correction: Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22025-2

Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

Global Disease Burden Estimates of Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Acute Respiratory Infection in Older Adults in 2015: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Respiratory syncytial virus-associated acute respiratory infection (RSV-ARI) constitutes a substantial disease burden in older adults aged ≥65 years. We aimed to identify all studies worldwide investigating the disease burden of RSV-ARI in this population. We estimated the community incidence, hospitalization rate, and in-hospital case-fatality ratio (hCFR) of RSV-ARI in older adults, stratified by industrialized and developing regions, using data from a systematic review of studies published between January 1996 and April 2018 and 8 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these rate estimates to population estimates for 2015 to calculate the global and regional burdens in older adults with RSV-ARI in the community and in hospitals for that year. We estimated the number of in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ARI by combining hCFR data with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based studies. In 2015, there were about 1.5 million episodes (95% confidence interval [CI], .3 million-6.9 million) of RSV-ARI in older adults in industrialized countries (data for developing countries were missing), and of these, approximately 14.5% (214 000 episodes; 95% CI, 100 000-459 000) were admitted to hospitals. The global number of hospital admissions for RSV-ARI in older adults was estimated at 336 000 hospitalizations (uncertainty range [UR], 186 000-614 000). We further estimated about 14 000 in-hospital deaths (UR, 5000-50 000) related to RSV-ARI globally. The hospital admission rate and hCFR were higher for those aged ≥65 years than for those aged 50-64 years. The disease burden of RSV-ARI among older adults is substantial, with limited data from developing countries. Appropriate prevention and management strategies are needed to reduce this burden.

1115 Sleep Misperception, Anxiety, And Sleep Quality

Introduction

Sleep misperception is a phenomenon often identified in insomnia literature, in which individuals subjective reporting does not match objective measurements of their own sleep. Research indicates that anxiety symptoms may play a role in sleep misperception. This study assessed the relationship between sleep misperception, sleep quality, and anxiety in a young adult population with sub-clinical insomnia and anxiety symptoms. Linear regression models examined the relationships between sleep quality, anxiety symptoms, and sleep misperception.

Methods

This sample consisted of 130 young adults recruited from a University in the Bronx, NY. Anxiety was assessed using the Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI), and sleep quality was assessed using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI). Objective measures of sleep were collected via wrist-based actigraphy over a period of 7-14 days. Subjective sleep measures were collected via an online sleep diary. A misperception index was calculated to determine the discrepancy between subjective and objective sleep measures based on a formula established in previous research.

Results

Higher anxiety symptoms were associated with greater sleep disturbance. Higher sleep misperception was not associated with greater sleep disturbance. There was a significant, positive relationship between sleep misperception and anxiety symptoms (r=0.18, p=0.000). Gender emerged as an important covariate, with males exhibiting significantly higher sleep misperception and underestimating TST (M=-0.31, SD=0.22) compared to females (M=-0.18, SD=0.12).

Conclusion

Sleep misperception was not related to sleep quality, but was strongly related to anxiety symptoms in this population. In a sub-clinical young adult sample, sleep misperception is associated with anxiety but not sleep quality, and has significant gender differences. These findings contribute to sleep misperception literature with potential applications in diagnosis and treatment of insomnia and anxiety.

Support

n/a

Primary palliative care research: opportunities and challenges

INTRODUCTION

Primary care has a central role in palliative and end of life care: 45.6% of deaths in England and Wales occur under the care of primary care teams at home or in care homes. The Community Care Pathways at the End of Life (CAPE) study investigated primary care provided for patients in the final 6 months of life. This paper highlights the opportunities and challenges associated with primary palliative care research in the UK, describing the methodological, ethical, logistical and gatekeeping challenges encountered in the CAPE study and how these were addressed.

THE STUDY METHODS

Using a mixed-methods approach, quantitative data were extracted from the general practitioner (GP) and district nurse (DN) records of 400 recently deceased patients in 20 GP practices in the East of England. Focus groups were conducted with some GPs and DNs, and individual interviews held with bereaved carers and other GPs and DNs.

THE CHALLENGES ADDRESSED

Considerable difficulties were encountered with ethical permissions, with GP, DN and bereaved carer recruitment and both quantitative and qualitative data collection. These were overcome with flexibility of approach, perseverance of the research team and strong user group support. This enabled completion of the study which generated a unique primary palliative care data set.

Risk factors associated with the development of active tuberculosis among patients with advanced chronic kidney disease

OBJECTIVES

The risk of developing active TB is greater in those receiving haemodialysis. This study aimed to describe the incidence of active tuberculosis among patients referred for management of kidney disease and dialysis in a high incidence UK city, with the purpose of informing latent TB testing and treatment practice.

METHODS

Information from the tuberculosis register was cross-referenced with the Department of Renal Medicine patient information system. All patients seen between 1st January 2005 and 1st October 2016 were included in the analyses with the exception of those with prior TB.

RESULTS

68 cases of active TB were identified, an incidence of 126/100,000 patient-years (95% CI 97-169). Incidence was lowest in those with CKD 1 or 2 and rose as high as 256/100,000 patient-years (95% CI 183-374) in those receiving renal replacement therapy. 48% of cases were pulmonary and 87% of TB patients gave their ethnicity as either black/black British or Asian/Asian British, significantly more than in the non-TB renal group. Cases occurred steadily over the time period in which patients were in the cohort.

CONCLUSION

TB incidence was very high among those receiving renal replacement therapy or CKD 4 or 5. Most cases occurred in those of an Asian/Asian British or black/black British background. Testing and treating such patients for latent TB is justified and should include those who have been receiving renal replacement therapy for some years.

The genetics of drought tolerance in conifers

Contents 1034 I. 1034 II. 1035 III. 1037 IV. 1038 V. 1042 VI. 1043 VII. 1045 References 1045 SUMMARY: As temperatures warm and precipitation patterns shift as a result of climate change, interest in the identification of tree genotypes that will thrive under more arid conditions has grown. In this review, we discuss the multiple definitions of 'drought tolerance' and the biological processes involved in drought responses. We describe the three major approaches taken in the study of genetic variation in drought responses, the advantages and shortcomings of each, and what each of these approaches has revealed about the genetic basis of adaptation to drought in conifers. Finally, we discuss how a greater knowledge of the genetics of drought tolerance may aid forest management, and provide recommendations for how future studies may overcome the limitations of past approaches. In particular, we urge a more direct focus on survival, growth and the traits that directly predict them (rather than on proxies, such as water use efficiency), combining research approaches with complementary strengths and weaknesses, and the inclusion of a wider range of taxa and life stages.

Sophisticated Clean Air Strategies Required to Mitigate Against Particulate Organic Pollution

Since the 1980's, measures mitigating the impact of transboundary air pollution have been implemented successfully as evidenced in the 1980-2014 record of atmospheric sulphur pollution over the NE-Atlantic, a key region for monitoring background northern-hemisphere pollution levels. The record reveals a 72-79% reduction in annual-average airborne sulphur pollution (SO4 and SO2, respectively) over the 35-year period. The NE-Atlantic, as observed from the Mace Head research station on the Irish coast, can be considered clean for 64% of the time during which sulphate dominates PM1 levels, contributing 42% of the mass, and for the remainder of the time, under polluted conditions, a carbonaceous (organic matter and Black Carbon) aerosol prevails, contributing 60% to 90% of the PM1 mass and exhibiting a trend whereby its contribution increases with increasing pollution levels. The carbonaceous aerosol is known to be diverse in source and nature and requires sophisticated air pollution policies underpinned by sophisticated characterisation and source apportionment capabilities to inform selective emissions-reduction strategies. Inauspiciously, however, this carbonaceous concoction is not measured in regulatory Air Quality networks.

Prolactin and hostility in hospitalised patients and healthy women: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess any difference in the self-ratings of hostility in mentally healthy women with different levels of prolactin (PRL). Electronic databases (PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library) were searched up to 2nd July 2012 for published literature comparing hostility levels in women with different levels of PRL. Keyword pairs ('prolactin' and 'aggression', 'prolactin' and 'hostil*', 'prolactin' and 'anger', and 'prolactin' and 'angry') were entered simultaneously. From 1065 resulting titles, and one unpublished study, 214 articles underwent full-text review by authors JB and EM. Studies were selected based on clinical relevance. Eight comparative studies consisting of 242 female patients with high PRL levels, 207 female patients with normal PRL levels and 127 healthy controls with normal PRL levels were included. Data were analysed using the inverse variance method with a random-effects model. Analysis revealed significantly higher hostility in patients with high PRL compared with that in healthy control women (Z = 1.94, p < 0.05; Hedges' g = 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.01-1.45), significantly higher hostility in patient controls compared with that in healthy controls (Z = 1.94, p < 0.05; Hedges' g = 0.47; 95% CI: 0.00-0.94) and non-significantly higher hostility levels in patients with high PRL compared with that in patients with normal PRL levels (Z = 1.45, p < 0.15; Hedges' g = 0.38; 95% CI: -0.13-0.89). In this meta-analysis, hostility appears to be accounted for partly by PRL levels and also partly by patient status, perhaps due to the stress of being a patient. Methodological considerations and implications for patient care are discussed.

The changing face of multiple sclerosis: Prevalence and incidence in an aging population

Objective:

To assess multiple sclerosis (MS) incidence from 1998 to 2007, and MS prevalence on 31 December 2007, in the province of Genoa, Italy.

Methods:

We identified MS cases diagnosed before 31 December 2007 by analyzing archives of hospitals with neurological or rehabilitation wards, the local Italian MS society, family doctor records and requests for oligoclonal band analysis on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF).

Results:

A total of 1312 MS patients were residing in the province of Genoa on the prevalence day; 431 (32.85%) were men and 881 (67.15%) were women; mean age was 50.6 (± 13.9). The overall crude MS prevalence rate was 148.5/100,000; 103.1/100,000 in men and 189.1/100,000 in women. The crude mean annual MS incidence rate was 6.6 cases/100,000 (4.4/100,000 men; 8.6/100,000 women). Mean age at diagnosis was 39.5 ± 12.3 (men: 39.9 ± 13.0; women: 39.3 ± 11.9). A mean annual incidence of 4 MS patients ≥ 60 was observed.

Conclusions:

We observed an increased MS prevalence in the province of Genoa, compared to 1997. The mean age at diagnosis was relatively high (39 years old), 18% of our MS patients were over 65, and a notable incidence increase was seen in patients over 60. This has important implications, in terms of the need to organize the health system to better serve elderly MS patients, especially considering comorbidities and different medical needs of elderly MS patients; and to increase awareness within the medical community about the increasing risk of newly-presenting MS in the older population.

Prolactin and aggression in women with fertility problems

This study tested the hypothesis that women with higher prolactin feel more hostility, anger and aggression. A total of 66 women with moderate fertility problems were grouped into the 50% who had the highest and the 50% who had the lowest levels of prolactin. Levels of hostility, aggression and anger were compared. Women with higher prolactin levels did not report significantly increased hostility. After Bonferroni correction, women with lower prolactin showed non-significantly increased scores on two measures of state anger, and on a measure of trait temper. When comparing those with the highest and lowest 20% of prolactin levels, those with lower prolactin had non-significantly higher scores on trait temper and outward expression of anger, and non-significantly lower scores for control of anger. Although non-significant, these findings run counter to those of earlier studies on this topic. Implications for future research and patient care are discussed.

A microcarrier-based cell culture process for the production of a bovine respiratory syncytial virus vaccine

Veterinary viral vaccines generally comprise either attenuated or chemically inactivated viruses which have been propagated on mammalian cell substrates or specific pathogen free (SPF) eggs. New generation vaccines include chemically inactivated virally-infected whole cell vaccines. The NM57 cell line is a bovine nasal turbinate persistently infected (non-lytic infection) with a strain of the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The potential of microcarrier technology for the cultivation in bioreactors of this anchorage dependent cell line for RSV vaccine production has been investigated. Both Cytodex 3 and Cultispher S microcarriers proved most suitable from a selection of microcarriers as growth substrates for this NM57 cell line. Maximum cell densities of 4.12×105 cells ml-1and 5.52×105 cells ml-1 respectively were obtained using Cytodex 3 (3 g l-1) and and Cultispher S (1 g l-1) in 5 l bioreactor cultures. The fact that cell growth was less sensitive to agitation rate when cultured on Cultispher S microcarriers, and that cells were efficiently harvested from this microcarrier by an enzymatic method, suggested Cultispher S is suitable for further evaluation at larger bioreactor scales (>5 l) than that described here.

A multi-scale approach to colorectal cancer: from a biochemical- interaction signaling-network level, to multi-cellular dynamics of malignant transformation. Interplay with mutations and onco-protein inhibitor drugs

This review article is part of a special Current Cancer Drug Targets issue devoted to colorectal cancer and molecularly targeted treatments. In our paper we made an attempt to connect more basic aspects with preclinical, pharmacological / therapeutic and clinical aspects. Reconstruction of a Molecular Interaction Map (MIM) comprising an important part of the G0 - G1 - S cell cycle transition, was a major component of our review. Such a MIM serves also as a convenient / organized database of a large set of important molecular events. The frequency of mutated / altered signaling-proteins indicates the importance of this signaling-network region. We have considered problems at different scale levels. Our MIM works at a biochemical-interaction level. We have also touched the multi-cellular dynamics of normal and aberrant colon crypts. Until recently, dynamic simulations at a biochemical or multi-cellular scale level were considered as a sort of esoteric approach. We tried to convince the reader, also on the basis of a rapidly growing literature, mostly published in high quality journals, that suspicion towards simulations should dissipate, as the limitations and advantages of their application are better appreciated, opening the door to their permanent adoption in everyday research. What is really required is a more interdisciplinary mentality and an interdisciplinary approach. The prize is a level of understanding going beyond mere intuition.

Individual-scale variation, species-scale differences: inference needed to understand diversity

As ecological data are usually analysed at a scale different from the one at which the process of interest operates, interpretations can be confusing and controversial. For example, hypothesised differences between species do not operate at the species level, but concern individuals responding to environmental variation, including competition with neighbours. Aggregated data from many individuals subject to spatio-temporal variation are used to produce species-level averages, which marginalise away the relevant (process-level) scale. Paradoxically, the higher the dimensionality, the more ways there are to differ, yet the more species appear the same. The aggregate becomes increasingly irrelevant and misleading. Standard analyses can make species look the same, reverse species rankings along niche axes, make the surprising prediction that a species decreases in abundance when a competitor is removed from a model, or simply preclude parameter estimation. Aggregation explains why niche differences hidden at the species level become apparent upon disaggregation to the individual level, why models suggest that individual-level variation has a minor impact on diversity when disaggregation shows it to be important, and why literature-based synthesis can be unfruitful. We show how to identify when aggregation is the problem, where it has caused controversy, and propose three ways to address it.

Current standards and future strategies in immunochemotherapy of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma

The therapeutic options for B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) have dramatically expanded with the advent of immune-based treatments. The monoclonal antibody anti- CD20 rituximab represents the best example of these advances and has quickly become incorporated into the therapeutic armamentarium for this hematological disease. In addition, other antibodies are eventually becoming part of treatment approaches to NHL. Furthermore, the role of therapeutic vaccines continues to be an important ongoing research question. Despite this success, several questions on how to optimize the use of monoclonal antibodies in NHL remain open since the best administration schedules, as well as the optimal duration of immunotherapy still have to be determined. Finally the development of resistance to treatment remains the main limit of this innovative approach, necessitating the development of strategies to circumvent resistance itself. This review will summarize the state of the art of antibody-based immunotherapy of NHL and discuss prospective approaches to improve the benefit of these treatments in patients.

Peripheral blood vs. bone marrow for molecular monitoring of BCR-ABL1 levels in chronic myelogenous leukemia, a retrospective analysis in allogeneic bone marrow recipients

Molecular monitoring of the BCR-ABL1 transcript in chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) using quantitative real-time PCR (RQ-PCR) can be performed using either bone marrow (BM) or peripheral blood (PB). However, a recent report by Stock et al. [International Journal of Oncology 28 (2006) 1099] questioned the reliability of PB samples for BCR-ABL1 detection as performed by RQ-PCR. We report a study on 114 CML patients who received allogeneic stem cell transplantation (ASCT), and who were monitored by RQ-PCR using paired samples of BM and PB: the total number of determinations was 428, with a median follow-up after transplant of 8 years. BCR-ABL1 transcript was undetectable or <0.1%, in 106 (49.57%) and 62 (29%) paired determinations, respectively. BCR-ABL1 was >0.1% in 36 (16.8%) paired determinations and was discordant in 10 (4.7%). Agreement between PB and BM results was quantified by the kappa test (k = 0.85; 95% CI 0.76-0.94). This study shows that BCR-ABL1 RQ-PCR monitoring of CML patients after ASCT with PB is concordant with BM in 95.3% of cases, and thus may be used to monitor the disease. This may be relevant when discussing both quality of life issues and the need for post-transplant monitoring with the patient.

Molecular diagnosis and monitoring of chronic myelogenous leukemia: BCR-Abl and more

The current treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) is one of the most successful examples of molecularly targeted therapy in cancer. The identification of the fusion oncogene BCR-ABL allowed the discovery of small molecule inhibitors of its tyrosine kinase activity which, in turn, have literally revolutionized the treatment of this disease. However, large part of a successful clinical management of CML relies on appropriate diagnosis, molecular monitoring and identification of mutations potentially leading to drug resistance. These issues are discussed here together with an overview on how patients treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors should be monitored.

Imaging amyloid deposition in Lewy body diseases

BACKGROUND

Extrapyramidal motor symptoms precede dementia in Parkinson disease (PDD) by many years, whereas dementia occurs early in dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). Despite this clinical distinction, the neuropsychological and neuropathologic features of these conditions overlap. In addition to widespread distribution of Lewy bodies, both diseases have variable burdens of neuritic plaques and neurofibrillary tangles characteristic of Alzheimer disease (AD).

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether amyloid deposition, as assessed by PET imaging with the beta-amyloid-binding compound Pittsburgh Compound B (PiB), can distinguish DLB from PDD, and to assess whether regional patterns of amyloid deposition correlate with specific motor or cognitive features.

METHODS

Eight DLB, 7 PDD, 11 Parkinson disease (PD), 15 AD, and 37 normal control (NC) subjects underwent PiB-PET imaging and neuropsychological assessment. Amyloid burden was quantified using the PiB distribution volume ratio.

RESULTS

Cortical amyloid burden was higher in the DLB group than in the PDD group, comparable to the AD group. Amyloid deposition in the PDD group was low, comparable to the PD and NC groups. Relative to global cortical retention, occipital PiB retention was lower in the AD group than in the other groups. For the DLB, PDD, and PD groups, amyloid deposition in the parietal (lateral and precuneus)/posterior cingulate region was related to visuospatial impairment. Striatal PiB retention in the DLB and PDD groups was associated with less impaired motor function.

CONCLUSIONS

Global cortical amyloid burden is high in dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) but low in Parkinson disease dementia. These data suggest that beta-amyloid may contribute selectively to the cognitive impairment of DLB and may contribute to the timing of dementia relative to the motor signs of parkinsonism.