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Yan B, Dietzenbacher E, Los B. The global emission mitigation potential of avoiding waste and product lifespan extension by Chinese households. Heliyon 2024; 10:e24322. [PMID: 38322907 PMCID: PMC10843998 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24322] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2023] [Revised: 12/17/2023] [Accepted: 01/07/2024] [Indexed: 02/08/2024] Open
Abstract
This paper examines the emission mitigation potential of Chinese households' low-carbon behavior by 2030 through a global carbon footprint scenario analysis. The emission reduction effect is estimated by comparing the projected global emissions in 2030 in a lifestyle emulation scenario and a low-carbon scenario, in which Chinese households adopt low-carbon consumption behaviors. Lifestyle emulation is modeled based on what we call "world Engel curves", which describe how the expenditure share of a certain consumption good depends on the total per capita expenditures for household consumption (which depends on income). By including a dynamic link between household lifestyle changes and GDP, we then obtain the emission projections under different scenarios in 2030, based on the historical data for 49 countries from 1995 to 2011 from EXIOBASE. Our results show that adopting a mild low-carbon lifestyle by households helps only little in terms of reducing GHG emissions. Reducing avoidable waste and expanding the lifetime of products are not enough to help meeting the 2 °C goal. More drastic changes are required.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bingqian Yan
- National Academy of Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, 100006, China
- Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, PO Box 800, 9700 AV, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Erik Dietzenbacher
- Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, PO Box 800, 9700 AV, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Bart Los
- Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, PO Box 800, 9700 AV, Groningen, the Netherlands
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Zheng H, Zhang Z, Dietzenbacher E, Zhou Y, Többen J, Feng K, Moran D, Jiang M, Shan Y, Wang D, Liu X, Li L, Zhao D, Meng J, Ou J, Guan D. Leveraging opportunity of low carbon transition by super-emitter cities in China. Sci Bull (Beijing) 2023; 68:2456-2466. [PMID: 37620230 DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2023.08.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2022] [Revised: 05/18/2023] [Accepted: 05/22/2023] [Indexed: 08/26/2023]
Abstract
Chinese cities are core in the national carbon mitigation and largely affect global decarbonisation initiatives, yet disparities between cities challenge country-wide progress. Low-carbon transition should preferably lead to a convergence of both equity and mitigation targets among cities. Inter-city supply chains that link the production and consumption of cities are a factor in shaping inequality and mitigation but less considered aggregately. Here, we modelled supply chains of 309 Chinese cities for 2012 to quantify carbon footprint inequality, as well as explored a leverage opportunity to achieve an inclusive low-carbon transition. We revealed significant carbon inequalities: the 10 richest cities in China have per capita carbon footprints comparable to the US level, while half of the Chinese cities sit below the global average. Inter-city supply chains in China, which are associated with 80% of carbon emissions, imply substantial carbon leakage risks and also contribute to socioeconomic disparities. However, the significant carbon inequality implies a leveraging opportunity that substantial mitigation can be achieved by 32 super-emitting cities. If the super-emitting cities adopt their differentiated mitigation pathway based on affluence, industrial structure, and role of supply chains, up to 1.4 Gt carbon quota can be created, raising 30% of the projected carbon quota to carbon peak. The additional carbon quota allows the average living standard of the other 60% of Chinese people to reach an upper-middle-income level, highlighting collaborative mechanism at the city level has a great potential to lead to a convergence of both equity and mitigation targets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heran Zheng
- The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London WC1H 0QB, UK
| | - Zengkai Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
| | - Erik Dietzenbacher
- Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, Groningen 9747 AG, Netherlands
| | - Ya Zhou
- Key Laboratory of City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development, Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
| | - Johannes Többen
- Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbH, Osnabrck 49080, Germany; Social Metabolism and Impacts, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam 14412, Germany
| | - Kuishuang Feng
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park MD 20742, USA
| | - Daniel Moran
- The Climate and Environmental Research Institute NILU, Lillestrøm 2007, Norway; Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7010, Norway
| | - Meng Jiang
- Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7010, Norway
| | - Yuli Shan
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
| | - Daoping Wang
- Department of Geography, King's College London, London WC2R 2LS, UK; Department of Computer Science and Technology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0FD, UK
| | - Xiaoyu Liu
- Research and Promotion Center for Green and Low-carbon Development, Environmental Development Center of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Li Li
- School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Dandan Zhao
- Department of Built Environment, Aalto University, Espoo 02150, Finland
| | - Jing Meng
- The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London WC1H 0QB, UK.
| | - Jiamin Ou
- Department of Sociology, Utrecht University, Utrecht 3584 CS, Netherlands
| | - Dabo Guan
- The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London WC1H 0QB, UK; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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Xia Y, Guan D, Steenge AE, Dietzenbacher E, Meng J, Mendoza Tinoco D. Assessing the economic impacts of IT service shutdown during the York flood of 2015 in the UK. Proc Math Phys Eng Sci 2019; 475:20180871. [PMID: 31105460 PMCID: PMC6501656 DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2018.0871] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2019] [Accepted: 03/06/2019] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
In this paper we focus on the ‘Christmas’ flood in York (UK), 2015. The case is special in the sense that little infrastructure was lost or damaged, while a single industry (IT services) was completely knocked out for a limited time. Due to these characteristics, the standard modelling techniques are no longer appropriate. An alternative option is provided by the Hypothetical Extraction Method, or HEM. However, there are restrictions in using the HEM, one being that no realistic substitutes exist for inputs from industries that were affected. In this paper we discuss these restrictions and show that the HEM performs well in the York flood case. In the empirical part of this paper we show that a three-day shutdown of the IT services caused a £3.24 m to £4.23 m loss in York, which is equivalent to 10% of the three days' average GVA (Gross Value Added) of York city. The services sector (excluding IT services) sustained the greatest loss at £0.80 m, where the business support industry which was predominantly hit. This study is the first to apply a HEM in this type of flood on a daily basis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yang Xia
- Water Security Research Centre, School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
| | - Dabo Guan
- Water Security Research Centre, School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK.,Department of Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100080, People's Republic of China.,School of Management and Economics Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, People's Republic of China
| | - Albert E Steenge
- Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, Nettelbosje 2, 9747 AE Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Erik Dietzenbacher
- Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, Nettelbosje 2, 9747 AE Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Jing Meng
- The Bartlett School of Construction and Project Management, University College London, London WC1E 7HB, UK
| | - David Mendoza Tinoco
- Economic Analysis Program of Mexico, Centre of Economic Studies, The Collage of Mexico, Mexico
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Affiliation(s)
- Quanrun Chen
- School of Statistics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, PR China
| | - Erik Dietzenbacher
- Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Bart Los
- Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
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Abstract
Greenhouse gas emissions increased by 8.9 Gigatons CO2 equivalent (Gt) in the period 1995-2008. A phenomenon that has received due attention is the upsurge of emission transfers via international trade. A question that has remained unanswered is whether trade changes have affected global emissions. For each of five factors (one of which is trade changes) in 40 countries we quantify its contribution to the growth in global emissions. We find that the changes in the levels of consumption per capita have led to an enormous growth in emissions (+14.0 Gt). This effect was partly offset by the changes in technology (-8.4 Gt). Smaller effects are found for population growth (+4.2 Gt) and changes in the composition of the consumption (-1.5 Gt). Changes in the trade structure had a very moderate effect on global emissions (+0.6 Gt). Looking at the geographical distribution, changes in the emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China) have caused 44% of emission growth whereas the increase in their national emissions accounted for 59% of emission growth. This means that 15% (1.4 Gt) of all extra GHG emissions between 1995 and 2008 have been emitted in emerging countries but were caused by changes in other countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Iñaki Arto
- Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), C/Alameda Urquijo 4, 4°,48006, Bilbao, Spain
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Dietzenbacher E, Temurshoev U. Input-output impact analysis in current or constant prices: does it matter? J Econ Struct 2012; 1:4. [PMID: 26069878 PMCID: PMC4456071 DOI: 10.1186/2193-2409-1-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2012] [Accepted: 04/27/2012] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
This paper addresses the question whether the results of input-output (IO) impact analyses differ (and to what extent) when a framework in current prices or in constant prices is used. We consider the effect of an exogenous stimulus of final demand in current prices on (a) gross output in constant prices, and (b) employment. In an empirical application to Denmark, we found that all predicted effects were very similar. This holds in particular for the results at the aggregate, economy-wide level and, to a lesser extent, at the sectoral level. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): C67, D57.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erik Dietzenbacher
- Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Umed Temurshoev
- Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, The Netherlands
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