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Gavin DG, Fitzpatrick MC, Gugger PF, Heath KD, Rodríguez-Sánchez F, Dobrowski SZ, Hampe A, Hu FS, Ashcroft MB, Bartlein PJ, Blois JL, Carstens BC, Davis EB, de Lafontaine G, Edwards ME, Fernandez M, Henne PD, Herring EM, Holden ZA, Kong WS, Liu J, Magri D, Matzke NJ, McGlone MS, Saltré F, Stigall AL, Tsai YHE, Williams JW. Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography. New Phytol 2014; 204:37-54. [PMID: 25039238 DOI: 10.1111/nph.12929] [Citation(s) in RCA: 128] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2014] [Accepted: 06/06/2014] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial-interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia - fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys - in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel G Gavin
- Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, 97403, USA
| | - Matthew C Fitzpatrick
- Appalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Frostburg, MD, 21532, USA
| | - Paul F Gugger
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA
| | - Katy D Heath
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | | | - Solomon Z Dobrowski
- Department of Forest Management, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA
| | - Arndt Hampe
- INRA, BIOGECO, UMR 1202, 33610, Cestas, France
- BIOGECO, UMR 1202, University of Bordeaux, 33400, Talence, France
| | - Feng Sheng Hu
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | | | | | - Jessica L Blois
- School of Natural Sciences, University of California, Merced, CA, 95343, USA
| | - Bryan C Carstens
- Department of Evolution, Ecology & Organismal Biology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA
| | - Edward B Davis
- Department of Geological Sciences, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, 97403, USA
| | - Guillaume de Lafontaine
- Canada Research Chair in Forest and Environmental Genomics, Centre for Forest Research, Institute for Systems and Integrative Biology, Université Laval, Québec City, QC, G1V 0A6, Canada
| | - Mary E Edwards
- Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Matias Fernandez
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Paul D Henne
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Institute of Plant Sciences, University of Bern, 3013, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Erin M Herring
- Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, 97403, USA
| | | | - Woo-Seok Kong
- Department of Geography, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, 130-701, Korea
| | - Jianquan Liu
- College of Life Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Donatella Magri
- Dipartimento di Biologia Ambientale, Sapienza University, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, 00185, Rome, Italy
| | - Nicholas J Matzke
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, 37996, USA
| | | | - Frédérik Saltré
- Environment Institute, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, 5005, Australia
| | - Alycia L Stigall
- Department of Geological Sciences, OHIO Center for Ecology and Evolutionary Studies, Ohio University, Athens, OH, 45701, USA
| | - Yi-Hsin Erica Tsai
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, 46556, USA
| | - John W Williams
- Department of Geography, Nelson Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
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