Spatial Assessment of Land Suitability Potential for Agriculture in Nigeria

From land cover analysis, cropland expansion was a major driving factor for land use land cover changes in Nigeria from 2000 to 2020. This further highlights the food production needs in the country. While this land use change indicates a significant alteration in land cover, it was exigent to assess land suitability using a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) combined with geospatial techniques to identify areas with agricultural suitability potential and to analyze cropland suitability. The results showed that the country had 8% of very high suitability, high suitability (25%), moderate suitability (29%), and marginal suitability (25%) croplands. However, low suitability accounts for 14% of the entire cropland. The spatial distribution of cropland suitability shows that most areas in the South East, South South, and South West, respectively, have the most suitable cropland as they meet the biophysical conditions for crop production, followed by the North Central regions, while most places in the North (North East and North West) have a higher share of moderate to low suitability. This study highlights the potential of the country to target localized self-sufficiency. Therefore, this study recommends using the cropland suitability map to launch food security programs across the six geopolitical zones to maximize their inherent environmental potentials to alleviate the country's food production needs.

Smallholder Farmers Contribution to Food Production in Nigeria

Several studies have shown that smallholder farmers produce most of the food in low-income and developing countries and form the backbone of the country’s food supply. This study examines the extent these smallholder farmers in Nigeria can put the country on the path to self-sufficiency and ensure satiety for household food consumption through their local production. The study also examines food production and their resulting yield based on crop production and harvested area, as well as the percentage of crops produced for food or other purposes. The results show that production of rice, sorghum, soybean, cassava, and yam is low; and their corresponding yields are declining, with the exception of maize, although the harvested area increased from 2015 to 2018. As it is, the findings are a clear indication of inadequate per capita food supply due to low food production, especially for cereals. The study suggests closing the yield gap specifically for cereals, limiting post-harvest losses, and finding a sustainable balance between the uses of major food crops for animal feed to reduce pressure on land resource use. The different states production performance requires special attention to harness the agricultural potential of each geopolitical zone. Lastly, dry-season cultivation should be encouraged through irrigation to enable harvesting two-times in a year. The study offers useful approaches to assess the contribution of local farmers to the food supply of a growing population and provides suggestions for the government, stakeholders, and the international community willing to collaborate and invest in the agricultural sector.

Virtual water transfers in Africa: Assessing topical condition of water scarcity, water savings, and policy implications

Africa is facing an increasing challenge with respect to water scarcity (WS), which is driven by climate change, population growth, and socioeconomic growth combined with inadequate water resources management. In particular, there is significant concern of virtual water (VW) trade, which plays the key role in water resource management and food security sustainability. Using bilateral trade data, this study consistently evaluated the change and balanced trade of major grains, the VW flows, WS status, water dependency (WD), water self-sufficiency (WSS), and water savings/losses within5 African sub-regions and their partners from 2000 to 2020. The ratio of water use to water availability was used to estimate the WS. The WD was quantified by the ratio of the net VW import to the regional water appropriation and the regional water savings/losses were also quantified by multiplying the inter-regional trade by the virtual water content of the imported/exported grains. The overall average trade deficit of African regions was found to increase to -1364.22 × 10⁶ tons and Africa imported 41,359.07 Bm³ of VW from grain products. Green water contributed 79.33% of the total VWI. The WS values for East African countries were >100, indicating overexploitation. Besides, the overall WD in Africa was 465.5% for the studied period. The trade of main grains between Africa and the rest of the planet corresponded to a global water loss of 2820.7 Bm³·yr^-1. However, the inter-continental cereal VW trade pattern and high trend will continue in the future. In view of the rising tension of WS, some African countries need to revise international crop trade and water resources conservation policies to promote a more balanced ecosystem. This study exemplifies that decision makers would consider VW flows and water savings/losses for enhancing water use efficiency and fair trading, thus increasing food production in Africa.

Ecological balance emerges in implementing the water-energy-food security nexus in well-developed countries in Africa

Although many African countries have made significant progress towards universal access to water, energy, and food resources (WEF), assessing the ecological response to the increasing productivity of these resources is not well researched, which carries the risk of ecological deficit, resource degradation, and inefficient policy responses to resource management. This study seeks to assess the ecological sustainability response to the high increase demand for WEF resources in well-developed African countries. The study developed new measurement metrics for the WEF production system, including three indicators of ecological footprint (EF), ecological biocapacity (EBC), and eco-balance. The overall analysis considers data from four distinct types of water and energy use activities, and eight distinct types of food consumption, in nine African countries with the highest WEF nexus performance. An evaluation tool for the Water, Energy, Food and Ecological Balance (WEFEB) nexus index is proposed as one of the study's outcomes. Despite having 100% access to WEF resources related to the SDG targets. The results reveal the significant levels of imbalance and large ecological deficits existing in many of the concerned countries, especially North Africa, Mauritius, and South Africa, which need to rethink their economic models. Projecting a sustained increase in resource demand so that each country achieves at least 1700 m³/capita/year as the minimum amount of water needed, most countries would suffer from a steady increase in ecological imbalance. According to the results, managing the ecological imbalances with increasing demand for WEF resources in well-developed African countries may require well-designed policies to effectively reduce certain types of human demand that have a large ecological footprint.