Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features

In the ENSEMBLE randomized, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial (NCT04505722), estimated single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy (VE) was 56% against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 Spike sequences were determined from 484 vaccine and 1,067 placebo recipients who acquired COVID-19. In this set of prespecified analyses, we show that in Latin America, VE was significantly lower against Lambda vs. Reference and against Lambda vs. non-Lambda [family-wise error rate (FWER) p < 0.05]. VE differed by residue match vs. mismatch to the vaccine-insert at 16 amino acid positions (4 FWER p < 0.05; 12 q-value ≤ 0.20); significantly decreased with physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance to the vaccine-strain sequence for Spike, receptor-binding domain, N-terminal domain, and S1 (FWER p < 0.001); differed (FWER ≤ 0.05) by distance to the vaccine strain measured by 9 antibody-epitope escape scores and 4 NTD neutralization-impacting features; and decreased (p = 0.011) with neutralization resistance level to vaccinee sera. VE against severe-critical COVID-19 was stable across most sequence features but lower against the most distant viruses.

Role of Age and Competing Risk of Death in the Racial Disparity of Kidney Failure Incidence after Onset of CKD

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

Black adults in the United States have 2-4 times higher incidence of kidney failure than White adults. Yet, the reasons underlying this disparity remain poorly understood. Among 547,188 US veterans with new-onset CKD, according to a new race-free GFR equation, Black veterans had a 2.5-fold higher cumulative incidence of kidney failure, compared with White veterans, in any follow-up period from CKD onset. This disparity resulted from a combination of higher hazards of progression to kidney failure and lower hazards of competing-risk death in Black veterans. Both, in turn, were largely explained by the younger age at CKD onset in Black veterans, underscoring an urgent need to prevent early onset and slow progression of CKD in younger Black adults.

BACKGROUND

The Black adult population is well known to have higher incidence of kidney failure than their White counterpart in the United States, but the reasons underlying this disparity are unclear. We assessed the racial differences in kidney failure and death from onset of CKD on the basis of the race-free 2021 CKD Epidemiology Collaboration equation and examined the extent to which these differences could be explained by factors at the time of CKD onset.

METHODS

We analyzed a national cohort consisting of 547,188 US veterans (103,821 non-Hispanic Black and 443,367 non-Hispanic White), aged 18-85 years, with new-onset CKD between 2005 and 2016 who were followed through 10 years or May 2018 for incident kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT) and pre-KFRT death.

RESULTS

At CKD onset, Black veterans were, on average, 7.8 years younger than White veterans. In any time period from CKD onset, the cumulative incidence of KFRT was 2.5-fold higher for Black versus White veterans. Meanwhile, Black veterans had persistently >2-fold higher hazards of KFRT throughout follow-up (overall hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 2.38 [2.31 to 2.45]) and conversely had 17%-48% decreased hazards of pre-KFRT death. These differences were reduced after accounting for the racial difference in age at CKD onset.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2.5-fold higher cumulative incidence of kidney failure in Black adults resulted from a combination of higher hazards of progression to kidney failure and lower hazards of the competing risk of death, both of which can be largely explained by the younger age at CKD onset in Black compared with White adults.

Role of Anemia in Dementia Risk Among Veterans With Incident CKD

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Although some evidence exists of increased dementia risk from anemia, it is unclear whether this association persists among adults with CKD. Anemia may be a key marker for dementia among adults with CKD, so we evaluated whether anemia is associated with an increased risk of dementia among adults with CKD.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

The study included 620,095 veterans aged≥45 years with incident stage 3 CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]<60mL/min/1.73m2) between January 2005 and December 2016 in the US Veterans Health Administration system and followed through December 31, 2018, for incident dementia, kidney failure, or death.

EXPOSURE

Anemia was assessed based on the average of hemoglobin levels (g/L) during the 2 years before the date of incident CKD and categorized as normal, mild, or moderate/severe anemia (≥12.0, 11.0-11.9,<11.0g/dL, respectively, for women, and≥13.0, 11.0-12.9,<11.0g/dL for men).

OUTCOME

Dementia and the composite outcome of kidney failure or death.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Adjusted cause-specific hazard ratios were estimated for each outcome.

RESULTS

At the time of incident CKD, the mean age of the participants was 72 years, 97% were male, and their mean eGFR was 51mL/min per 1.73m2. Over a median 4.1 years of follow-up, 92,306 veterans (15%) developed dementia before kidney failure or death. Compared with the veterans with CKD without anemia, the multivariable-adjusted models showed a 16% (95% CI, 14%-17%) significantly higher risk of dementia for those with mild anemia and a 27% (95% CI, 23%-31%) higher risk with moderate/severe anemia. Combined risk of kidney failure or death was higher at 39% (95% CI, 37%-40%) and 115% (95% CI, 112%-119%) for mild and moderate/severe anemia, respectively, compared with no anemia.

LIMITATIONS

Residual confounding from the observational study design. Findings may not be generalizable to the broader US population.

CONCLUSIONS

Anemia was significantly associated with an increased risk of dementia among veterans with incident CKD, underscoring the role of anemia as a predictor of dementia risk.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) often have anemia. Prior studies among adults in the general population suggest anemia is a risk factor for dementia, though it is unclear whether this association persists among adults with CKD. In this large study of veterans in the United States, we studied the association between anemia and the risk of 2 important outcomes in this population: (1) dementia and (2) kidney failure or death. We found that anemia was associated with a greater risk of dementia as well as risk of kidney failure or death. The study findings therefore emphasize the role of anemia as a key predictor of dementia risk among adults with CKD.

Brief report: risk stratification following curative therapy for stage I NSCLC

Introduction

Surveillance with computed tomography (CT) imaging following curative treatment of stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is important to identify recurrence or second primary lung cancers (SPLC). The pattern and risks of recurrence following curative therapy and optimal duration of surveillance scans remain unknown. The objective of our study is to assess the pattern of recurrence and development of SPLC to risk stratify patients with stage I NSCLC following curative therapy.

Methods

We identified 261 patients who received curative therapy for stage I NSCLC at Mayo Clinic Florida. Data was collected on clinical and demographic features including gender, smoking history, stage, treatment, histologic subtype, and tumor grade. Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate the disease free survival (DFS). Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify risk factors for recurrence.

Results

Negative tobacco history and stage IA tumors were associated with significantly prolonged DFS after adjusting for co-variates (p=0.001 and p=0.005). Univariate Cox proportional hazards model identified tobacco history and stage 1B as risk factors for recurrence with unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 2.8 and 2.0, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, only stage IB was statistically significant predictor of recurrence with a hazard ratio of 2.1 (Confidence Interval (CI) 95% 1.2-3.6; p=0.007).

Conclusions

An individualized approach that considers risk factors of stage and smoking history may be useful in determining whether to continue annual CT surveillance after five years post curative therapy for stage I NSCLC.

Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features

It is of interest to pinpoint SARS-CoV-2 sequence features defining vaccine resistance. In the ENSEMBLE randomized, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial, estimated single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy (VE) was 56% against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 Spike sequences were measured from 484 vaccine and 1,067 placebo recipients who acquired COVID-19 during the trial. In Latin America, where Spike diversity was greatest, VE was significantly lower against Lambda than against Reference and against all non-Lambda variants [family-wise error rate (FWER) p < 0.05]. VE also differed by residue match vs. mismatch to the vaccine-strain residue at 16 amino acid positions (4 FWER p < 0.05; 12 q-value ≤ 0.20). VE significantly decreased with physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance to the vaccine-strain sequence for Spike, receptor-binding domain, N-terminal domain, and S1 (FWER p < 0.001); differed (FWER ≤ 0.05) by distance to the vaccine strain measured by 9 different antibody-epitope escape scores and by 4 NTD neutralization-impacting features; and decreased (p = 0.011) with neutralization resistance level to vaccine recipient sera. VE against severe-critical COVID-19 was stable across most sequence features but lower against viruses with greatest distances. These results help map antigenic specificity of in vivo vaccine protection.

Estimation of conditional cumulative incidence functions under generalized semiparametric regression models with missing covariates, with application to analysis of biomarker correlates in vaccine trials

This article studies generalized semiparametric regression models for conditional cumulative incidence functions with competing risks data when covariates are missing by sampling design or happenstance. A doubly-robust augmented inverse probability weighted complete-case (AIPW) approach to estimation and inference is investigated. This approach modifies IPW complete-case estimating equations by exploiting the key features in the relationship between the missing covariates and the phase-one data to improve efficiency. An iterative numerical procedure is derived to solve the nonlinear estimating equations. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study examining the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimators shows that the AIPW estimators are more efficient than the IPW estimators. The developed method is applied to the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial to investigate vaccine-induced IgG binding antibodies to HIV-1 as correlates of acquisition of HIV-1 infection while taking account of whether the HIV-1 sequences are near or far from the HIV-1 sequences represented in the vaccine construct.

Neutralizing antibody correlates of sequence specific dengue disease in a tetravalent dengue vaccine efficacy trial in Asia

In the CYD14 trial of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine in 2-14 year-olds, neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers to the vaccine-insert dengue strains correlated inversely with symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD). Also, vaccine efficacy against VCD was higher against dengue prM/E amino acid sequences closer to the vaccine inserts. We integrated the nAb and sequence data types by assessing nAb titers as a correlate of sequence-specific VCD separately in the vaccine arm and in the placebo arm. In both vaccine and placebo recipients the correlation of nAb titer with sequence-specific VCD was stronger for dengue nAb contact site sequences closer to the vaccine (p = 0.005 and p = 0.012, respectively). The risk of VCD in vaccine (placebo) recipients was 6.7- (1.80)-fold lower at the 90th vs 10th percentile of nAb for viruses perfectly matched to CYD-TDV, compared to 2.1- (0.78)-fold lower at the 90th vs 10th percentile for viruses with five amino acid mismatches. The evidence for a stronger sequence-distance dependent correlate of risk for the vaccine arm indicates departure from the Prentice criteria for a valid sequence-distance specific surrogate endpoint and suggests that the nAb marker may affect dengue risk differently depending on whether nAbs arise from infection or also by vaccination. However, when restricting to baseline-seropositive 9-14 year-olds, the correlation pattern became more similar between the vaccine and placebo arms, supporting nAb titers as an approximate surrogate endpoint in this population. No sequence-specific nAb titer correlates of VCD were seen in baseline-seronegative participants. Integrated immune response/pathogen sequence data correlates analyses could help increase knowledge of correlates of risk and surrogate endpoints for other vaccines against genetically diverse pathogens. Trial registration: EU Clinical Trials Register 2014-001708-24; registration date 2014-05-26.

Genomic landscape of lung adenocarcinomas in different races

Background

Lung adenocarcinoma is a molecularly heterogeneous disease. Several studies, including The Cancer Genome Atlas Research Network (TCGA) and Lung Cancer Mutation Consortium (LCMC), explored the genetic alterations among different ethnic groups. However, minority groups are often under-represented in these relevant studies and the genomic alterations among racial groups are not fully understood.

Methods

We analyze genomic characteristics among racial groups to understand the diversities and their impact on clinical outcomes.

Results

Native Americans had significantly higher rates of insertions and deletions than other races (P<0.001). Among patients with lung adenocarcinomas, EGFR and KRAS were the highest discrepancy genes in the different racial groups (P<0.001). The EGFR exon 21 L858R point mutation was three times higher in Asians than in all other races (P<0.001). Asians, Whites, and Blacks had 4.7%, 3.1%, and 1.8% ALK rearrangement, respectively (P<0.001). White patients had the highest rates of reported KRAS G12C (15.51%) than other races (P<0.001). Whites (17.2%), Blacks (15.1%), and Other (15.7%) had higher rates of STK11 mutation than Asians (3.94%) (P<0.001). RET rearrangement and ERBB2 amplification were more common in Asian patients than in Other racial groups. Apart from point mutations, structural variations, and fusion genes, we identified a significant amount of copy number alterations in each race.

Conclusions

The tumor genomic landscape is significantly distinct in different races. This data would shed light on the understanding of molecular alterations and their impacts on clinical management in different lung cancer patients.

Semiparametric additive time-varying coefficients model for longitudinal data with censored time origin

Statistical analysis of longitudinal data often involves modeling treatment effects on clinically relevant longitudinal biomarkers since an initial event (the time origin). In some studies including preventive HIV vaccine efficacy trials, some participants have biomarkers measured starting at the time origin whereas others have biomarkers measured starting later with the time origin unknown. The semiparametric additive time-varying coefficient model is investigated where the effects of some covariates vary nonparametrically with time while the effects of others remain constant. Weighted profile least squares estimators coupled with kernel smoothing are developed. The method uses the expectation maximization approach to deal with the censored time origin. The Kaplan-Meier estimator and other failure time regression models such as the Cox model can be utilized to estimate the distribution and the conditional distribution of left censored event time related to the censored time origin. Asymptotic properties of the parametric and nonparametric estimators and consistent asymptotic variance estimators are derived. A two-stage estimation procedure for choosing weight is proposed to improve estimation efficiency. Numerical simulations are conducted to examine finite sample properties of the proposed estimators. The simulation results show that the theory and methods work well. The efficiency gain of the two-stage estimation procedure depends on the distribution of the longitudinal error processes. The method is applied to analyze data from the Merck 023/HVTN 502 Step HIV vaccine study. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

A Hybrid Approach for the Stratified Mark-Specific Proportional Hazards Model with Missing Covariates and Missing Marks, with Application to Vaccine Efficacy Trials

Deployment of the recently licensed CYD-TDV dengue vaccine requires understanding of how the risk of dengue disease in vaccine recipients depends jointly on a host biomarker measured after vaccination (neutralization titer - NAb) and on a "mark" feature of the dengue disease failure event (the amino acid sequence distance of the dengue virus to the dengue sequence represented in the vaccine). The CYD14 phase 3 trial of CYD-TDV measured NAb via case-cohort sampling and the mark in dengue disease failure events, with about a third missing marks. We addressed the question of interest by developing inferential procedures for the stratified mark-specific proportional hazards model with missing covariates and missing marks. Two hybrid approaches are investigated that leverage both augmented inverse probability weighting and nearest neighborhood hot deck multiple imputation. The two approaches differ in how the imputed marks are pooled in estimation. Our investigation shows that NNHD imputation can lead to biased estimation without properly selected neighborhood. Simulations show that the developed hybrid methods perform well with unbiased NNHD imputations from proper neighborhood selection. The new methods applied to CYD14 show that NAb is strongly inversely associated with risk of dengue disease in vaccine recipients, more strongly against dengue viruses with shorter distances.

Analysis of the time-varying Cox model for the cause-specific hazard functions with missing causes

This paper studies the Cox model with time-varying coefficients for cause-specific hazard functions when the causes of failure are subject to missingness. Inverse probability weighted and augmented inverse probability weighted estimators are investigated. The latter is considered as a two-stage estimator by directly utilizing the inverse probability weighted estimator and through modeling available auxiliary variables to improve efficiency. The asymptotic properties of the two estimators are investigated. Hypothesis testing procedures are developed to test the null hypotheses that the covariate effects are zero and that the covariate effects are constant. We conduct simulation studies to examine the finite sample properties of the proposed estimation and hypothesis testing procedures under various settings of the auxiliary variables and the percentages of the failure causes that are missing. These simulation results demonstrate that the augmented inverse probability weighted estimators are more efficient than the inverse probability weighted estimators and that the proposed testing procedures have the expected satisfactory results in sizes and powers. The proposed methods are illustrated using the Mashi clinical trial data for investigating the effect of randomization to formula-feeding versus breastfeeding plus extended infant zidovudine prophylaxis on death due to mother-to-child HIV transmission in Botswana.

Racial diversity of genomic alterations in lung adenocarcinomas

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Background: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer related death in the United States in all racial groups. However, the overall death rate from lung cancer is different among white, black and Asian. Although differences in socioeconomic status and treatments received might be the contributing factors, the biology, particularly genomic alteration of cancer might also have an important impact. To date, the differences of genomic alterations among all racial patients are poorly understood. Methods: The American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Project Genomics Evidence Neoplasia Information Exchange (GENIE, version 7.0) database was analyzed. A total of 8908 patients with lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) were identified. Among them, 5652 patients who had comprehensive sequencing results (gene panel ≥ 275) were selected for further analysis. Patients with unknown race, undefined and Pacific Island (only 3 patients) were excluded. Finally, 5360 patients were included in the study. The prevalence and distribution of genomic alteration cross all racial groups were analyzed. Results: Overall 5951 samples from 5360 patients were collected (85.7% white, 7.9% Asian, 4.7% black, 0.2% Native American and 1.4% other). Most patients have only one sample. The median mutation counts in white, black, Asian, Native American and others are 7, 6, 5, 5, 7 respectively (Kruskal–Wallis test, P< 0.001). Asian have significantly higher rates of insertion and deletions than other races (14.8% of Asian versus 9.8% of white, 10.7% of black, 10.4% of Native American, 11.1% of other; Pearson’s chi-square test, < 0.001). TP53, EGFR, KRAS and STK11 are the most frequent alterations in white, black and other. EGFR, TP53, KRAS and APC are the most frequent alterations in Asian. STK11 mutations are rare in both Asian and Native American. Native Americans have more alterations of LRP1B, ARID2 and ATM, although the patients’ number remains small. ATM and KEAP1 mutations are also common in white and black. EGFR is the highest discrepancy gene in racial distribution. 78.9% Asian, 47.7% black, 36.4% of native American had EGFR alteration in comparison to 29.6% in white (Fisher's exact test, P < 0.001). KRAS is the second highest discrepancy gene in racial distribution. 11.6% Asian, 26.3% black, 27.3% of Native American had KRAS alteration in comparison to 36.1% in white (Fisher's exact test, P< 0.001). Conclusions: Our study demonstrated the potential diversity of genomic alterations across all racial groups with potential impact on therapeutic decisions.

Analysis of generalized semiparametric mixed varying-coefficients models for longitudinal data

The generalized semiparametric mixed varying-coefficient effects model for longitudinal data can accommodate a variety of link functions and flexibly model different types of covariate effects, including time-constant, time-varying, and covariate-varying effects. The time-varying effects are unspecified functions of time and the covariate-varying effects are nonparametric functions of a possibly time-dependent exposure variable. A semiparametric estimation procedure is developed that uses local linear smoothing and profile weighted least squares, which requires smoothing in the two different and yet connected domains of time and the time-dependent exposure variable. The asymptotic properties of the estimators of both nonparametric and parametric effects are investigated. In addition, hypothesis testing procedures are developed to examine the covariate effects. The finite-sample properties of the proposed estimators and testing procedures are examined through simulations, indicating satisfactory performances. The proposed methods are applied to analyze the ACTG 244 clinical trial to investigate the effects of antiretroviral treatment switching in HIV-infected patients before and after developing the T215Y antiretroviral drug resistance mutation.

[Studies on the stable integration and expression of IL-2R alpha gene in CHO cells and it's applications]

OBJECTIVES

To establish a novel bioassay method for quantitative analysis of human IL-2 based on the specific binding of Interleukin-2 receptor alpha subunit (IL-2R alpha) with IL-2.

METHODS

Southern blot hybridization was first used to detect the stability of integration of recombinant secretive IL-2R alpha (rsIL-2R alpha) gene into the genome of highly expressed cell line reported elsewhere; the apparent Mr of the rsIL-2R alpha was then determined by using Western blotting; finally, a receptor-antibody sandwich ELISA method has been established for quantitative analysis of IL-2.

RESULTS

(1) Stable integration of rsIL-2R alpha gene into the genome of #17 CHO cell line has been identified; (2) the apparent Mr of rsIL-2R alpha was approximately 40,000; (3) linear range of the standard curve obtained from the receptor-based ELISA fell between 31.25-500 U of IL-2 (r = 0.9995). The slop of the standard curve decreased significantly when IL-2 was pre-incubated with goat anti-IL-2 antibody IgG (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

An IL-2R alpha-based IL-2 ELISA has been established for laboratory and clinical use with advantages of accuracy, specificity and simplicity over other conventional bioassays for IL-2 detection.

[The cloning and expression of human secreted interleukin 2 receptor alpha chain gene in eukaryotic cells]

By deleting the sequences encoding the cytoplasmic domain, transmembrane domain and the 5' untranslated region, human interleukin-2 receptor alpha cDNA fragment was subcloned into an eukaryotic expression vector pRc/CMV. The recombinant plasmid was then transfected into CHO cells by either electroporation or calcium phosphate precipitation. 11 G418-resistent clones were randomly selected for detection of mRNA expression. 5 clones out of the 11 were proved to be positively hybridyzed with IL-2R alpha cDNA probe. All of the 5 positive cell lines also expressed sIL-2R alpha in their supernatants as detected by ELISA. The establishment of rhsIL-2R alpha cell lines is of importance in the detection and purification of IL-2 based on the ability of affinity binding between IL-2 and its recombinant receptor.