1
|
Sørensen JH, Bartnicki J, Blixt Buhr AM, Feddersen H, Hoe SC, Israelson C, Klein H, Lauritzen B, Lindgren J, Schönfeldt F, Sigg R. Uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling during nuclear accidents. J Environ Radioact 2020; 222:106356. [PMID: 32892908 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106356] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2020] [Revised: 07/02/2020] [Accepted: 07/09/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Predictions of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides accidentally released from a nuclear power plant are influenced by two large sources of uncertainty: one associated with the meteorological data employed, and one with the source term, i.e. the temporal evolution of the amount and physical and chemical properties of the release. A methodology is presented for quantitative estimation of the variability of the prediction of atmospheric dispersion resulting from both sources of uncertainty. The methodology, which allows for efficient calculation, and thus is well suited for real-time assessment, is applied to a hypothetical accidental release of radionuclides.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jens Havskov Sørensen
- Research and Development Department, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100, Copenhagen, Denmark.
| | - Jerzy Bartnicki
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway), Postboks 43, Blindern, N-0371, Oslo, Norway
| | - Anna Maria Blixt Buhr
- Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM), Strålsäkerhetsmyndigheten, SE-171 16, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Henrik Feddersen
- Research and Development Department, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Steen Cordt Hoe
- Nuclear Division, Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA), Datavej 16, DK-3460, Birkerød, Denmark
| | - Carsten Israelson
- Nuclear Division, Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA), Datavej 16, DK-3460, Birkerød, Denmark
| | - Heiko Klein
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway), Postboks 43, Blindern, N-0371, Oslo, Norway
| | - Bent Lauritzen
- Center for Nuclear Technologies, Technical University of Denmark (DTU Nutech), Fysikvej, Building 311, DK-2800 Kgs, Lyngby, Denmark
| | - Jonas Lindgren
- Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM), Strålsäkerhetsmyndigheten, SE-171 16, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Fredrik Schönfeldt
- Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), Cementvägen 20, SE-906 21, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Robert Sigg
- Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), Cementvägen 20, SE-906 21, Umeå, Sweden
| |
Collapse
|