Economic valuation of selected ecosystem services in Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT), Pakistan

Abstract Payment for ecosystem services (PES) is a mechanism where a consumer is able and ready to pay for the protection of the precise ecosystem service and there must be a provider such as local societies receiving an economic resource, who in return, must have the ability to maintain that ecosystem service. Economic valuation provides basis for payment for ecosystem services. Therefore, objective of this study was to evaluate tourism and carbon stock services of the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT), Pakistan. Two forest zones (Chirpine and Scrub) of Islamabad capital territory (ICT) were selected for estimation of carbon stock and their carbon credits and carbon worth, a questionnaire-based survey was conducted for tourism as a payment for ecosystem services. The method for carbon stock assessment was systematic sampling for Chirpine forest whereas random sampling was done for scrub forest. The size of sampling plot was 17.84 m radius, and a total of 93 plots (49 Scrub zone and 44 Chirpine zone) was taken in the study area. The carbon stock of both zones (Chirpine and Scrub zone) is 22556.75 ton/ha (Chirpine 20105.79, Scrub 2450.96) and total carbon dioxide sequestered by both zone is 82557.72 ton/ha (Chirpine 73587.2, Scrub 8970.52), total carbon credits of both zone is 302160.87 (Chirpine 269328.97, Scrub 32831.9) and the carbon worth of both Chirpine and scrub zone is 4532418.92 $ (Chirpine 4039937.09$, Scrub 492481.83$). Similarly, from tourism point of view, in Shakar Parian, 94% tourists were agreed for PES whereas 6% were disagreed for the PES (the 6% tourist were disagreed to contribute for PES, 40% were agreed for Rs.5 contribution and 54% for Rs.10.). moreover, in Lake view Park, 97% tourists were agreed and 3% are disagreed (In Lake View Park 5% tourists were disagreed for the PES contribution whereas 32% were agreed for Rs.5 and 63% were for Rs.10). In Damen e Koh, around 87% tourist were agreed and 13% were disagreed, (24% were agreed for the contribution of Rs.5 and 63% tourists were agreed for the contribution of Rs.10). In Marghazar Zoo, 93% tourists were agreed (22% were agreed for contribution of Rs.5 and 71% tourist were agreed for contribution of Rs.10) and 7% are disagreed for PES whereas 7% tourists were not agreed for contribution. PES may implement to compensate forest and parks manager to ensure better management of the forests and parks. Due to prime location and scenic beauty of the ICT, it has huge potential for implementation of PES mechanism for sustainable forest management and conservation. Therefore, it is recommended that Capital Development Authority (CDA) Islamabad should devise a plan for implementation of PES in forests and parks of ICT for its sustainable management of recreational and forest resources.

KS01.5.A Impact of reduced treatment volumes on pattern of tumor recurrence and radiation dose to normal brain parenchyma in glioblastoma

Background

to analyze GBM recurrence pattern after standard chemoradiotherapy according to different target volume delineations. We hypothesized that reduced target volume margins may result in similar pattern of failure.

Material and Methods

207 patients with GBM who recurred after standard chemoradiation were evaluated. According to the Advisory Committee for Radiation Oncology Practice (ACROP) committee of the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) target volume delineation guideline, the clinical target volume (CTV) used for treatment planning consisted of residual tumor and resection cavity plus 2-cm margin. MRI scans showing tumor recurrences were fused with the planning computed tomography (CT), and the patterns of failure were analyzed dosimetrically using dose-volume histograms. The recurrent lesions were defined as in-field, marginal, or distant if >80%, 20-80%, or <20% of the intersecting volume was included in the 95% isodose line. For each patient a theoretical plan consisting of a reduced CTV using 1-cm margin was created and patterns of failure evaluated.

Results

The median overall survival and progression-free survival were 15.3 months and 7.8 months, respectively, from the date of surgery. Recurrences were in-field in 180 patients, marginal in 5 patients, and distant in 22 patients. Analysis of O6-methylguanine-DNA-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status showed different recurrence patterns of GBMs in patients with MGMT methylated compared with patients with MGMT unmethylated status. Recurrences occurred in-field and distant in 75.6% and 18.6% of methylated patients and in 91.8% and 6% of unmethylated patients, respectively (p=0.0046). Patterns of failure were similar between the different treatment plans. Reduced target volumes were associated with significantly lower doses of 20-50 Gy to normal brain and hippocampi (p=0.0001).

Conclusion

Most of patients treated with standard chemioradiotherapy have in-field recurrences; however, an increased risk of distant recurrences occurs in methylated tumors. The use of target delineation using 1-cm CTV margin is associated with smaller volumes of normal brain and hippocampi irradiated to high doses, without significant changes in the pattern of failure. The impact of different target delineation in terms of efficacy and risk of late radiation-induced toxicity should be assessed prospectively.

Assessment of particulate matter (PM) in ambient air of different settings and its associated health risk in Haripur city, Pakistan

Particulate matter (PM) is a major air pollutant causing serious health problems. The aim of the present study was to find out concentration of PM in ambient air and its associated health risk in Haripur city, Pakistan. Twenty-three samples were taken at various educational institutes, hospitals, recreational areas and industries in Haripur city. Concentration of PM2.5 (µg/m3) and PM10 (µg/m3) was measured with Youngteng YT-HPC 3000A portable PM counter. The results revealed that values of both PM2.5 and PM10 were above the permissible limits (35 µg/m3 for PM2.5 and 150 µg/m3 for PM10) set by Environmental Protection Agency Pakistan (Pak-EPA) in all the educational institutes, hospitals, recreational areas and industries investigated. Furthermore, significant (p<0.05) variation was found in the concentration of both PM2.5 and PM10 in all the educational institutes, hospitals, recreational areas, and industries studied. The concentration of PM2.5 was positively correlated with the concentration of PM10 in all the sampling sites. Therefore, from 1-14 scale standard of health index, the values of PM2.5 and PM10 exhibited that the ambient air quality of Haripur city Pakistan is under high risk. If the regulatory authorities such as Environmental Protection Agency, Health Department and Local Government monitor PM pollution in different settings of Haripur city, then a decrease can be possible in the pollution level. The remedies that can be taken to overcome the problem of ambient air pollution such as PM are plantation of trees at the sites where there are higher levels of air pollutants and use of masks on personal protection basis along with implementation of pollution control system in industries of Hattar Industrial Estate Haripur city, Pakistan.

Environmental sustainability assessment of wooden furniture produced in Pakistan

Life cycle assessment was carried out for a conventional wooden furniture set produced in Mardan division of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan during 2018-19. Primary data regarding inputs and outputs were collected through questionnaire surveys from 100 conventional wooden furniture set manufacturers, 50 in district Mardan and 50 in district Swabi. In the present study, cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment approach was applied for a functional unit of one conventional wooden furniture set. Production weighted average data were modelled in the environmental impacts modelling software i.e., SimaPro v.8.5. The results showed that textile used in sofa set, wood preservative for polishing and preventing insects attack and petrol used in generator had the highest contribution to all the environmental impact categories evaluated. Total cumulative energy demand for wooden furniture set manufactured was 30,005 MJ with most of the energy acquired from non-renewable fossil fuel resources.

Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan

This study aimed to develop and evaluate data driven models for prediction of forest yield under different climate change scenarios in the Gallies forest division of district Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Random Forest (RF) and Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) models were developed and evaluated using yield data of two species (Blue pine and Silver fir) as an objective variable and climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) as predictive variables. Prediction accuracy of both the models were assessed by means of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (r), relative root mean squared error (RRMSE), Legates-McCabe's (LM), Willmott's index (WI) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) metrics. Overall, the RF model outperformed the KRR model due to its higher accuracy in forecasting of forest yield. The study strongly recommends that RF model should be applied in other regions of the country for prediction of forest growth and yield, which may help in the management and future planning of forest productivity in Pakistan.

Genetic similarities and phylogenetic analysis of Muntjac (Muntiacus spp.) by comparing the nucleotide sequence of 16S rRNA and cytochrome B genome

This study aimed to identify the phylogenetic similarities among the muntjac (Muntiacus spp.). The phylogenetic similarities among seven major muntjac species were studied by comparing the nucleotide sequence of 16s rRNA and cytochrome b genome. Nucleotide sequences, retrieved from NCBI databases were aligned by using DNASTAR software. A phylogenetic tree was created for the selected species of muntjac by using the maximum likelihood method on MEGA7 software. The results of nucleotide sequences (16s rRNA) showed phylogenetic similarities between, the M. truongsonensis and M. rooseveltorum had the highest (99.2%) while the lowest similarities (96.8%) found between M. crinifrons and M. putaoensi. While the results of nucleotide sequences (Cty b) showed the highest similarity (100%) between M. muntjak and M. truongsonensis and the lowest s (91.5%) among M. putaoensis and M. crinifrons. The phylogenetic tree of muntjac species (16s rRNA gene) shows the main two clusters, the one including M. putaoensis, M. truongsonensis, M. rooseveltorum, and M. muntjak, and the second one including M. crinifrons and M. vuquangensis. The M. reevesi exists separately in the phylogenetic tree. The phylogenetic tree of muntjac species using cytochrome b genes shows that the M. muntjak and M. truongsonensis are clustered in the same group.

Payment for ecosystem services (PES): a holistic tool for sustainable forest management-a case study from Pakistan

Economic valuation of ecosystem services is a new concept in forest management. Economic valuation provides basis for payment for ecosystem services (PES). Therefore, objective of this study was to evaluate eco-tourism and carbon stock services of the Maindam valley, District Swat, Pakistan. For the carbon stock calculation, a sample size of 155 plots of 0.1 hectare (Ha) was taken using preliminary survey at 95% confidence interval and 10% allowable error. The data for tourism services was collected from owners of all the hotels, 100 tourists and key informants of the area at 10% sampling intensity on pretested questionnaire for twenty years period (1997-2017). Results showed that Miandam valley has carbon stock worth US$ 16,306,000 while the value of eco-tourism was US$ 1,578,458 on annual basis. The results also showed that trend of tourism has drastically declined after the 9/11 incident for foreigners and locals and the situation was further deteriorated during the era of Talibanization or militancy from 2008-2011. This study recommends implementation of PES strategy at the rate of 5%, thus a total of US$ 78,922 can be earned from eco-tourism and carbon crediting in the study area annually, which could play important role in sustainable forest management.

Major threats and habitat use status of Demoiselle crane (Anthropoides virgo), in district Bannu, Pakistan

Cranes are the large and attractive Creatures of nature with long necks, legs, and life-span. Adults of both sexes are the same with similar color patterns. Demoiselle cranes spend most of their lifespan on dry grasses. They are also found around the stream, rivers, shallow lakes, natural wetlands, and depressions. To evaluate the current status of habitat use and major threats a study was conducted in tehsil Domel district Bannu. Line transect method and water quality tests (temperature, PH, contamination of E-coli bacteria) were used. To determine the major threats questionnaire method was used. The whole data was analyzed by using SPSS 21 version. Based on the distribution four study sites were selected and four water samples from each study site were taken. Most sites were moderate to highly degraded except Kashoo and kurram river mixing point which was low degraded with livestock grazing and human activities. Water quality tests showed PH ranges from 7-9, temperature 6.5-8.5, and contamination of E-coli in all samples. The social survey revealed that hunting, habitat degradation, and pollution as major threats. Effective long-term conservation and management in the study area are needed to focus on the protection of disturbance-free habitat.

Statistical modeling for analyzing grain yield of durum wheat under rainfed conditions in Azad Jammu Kashmir, Pakistan

One of the most important traits that plant breeders aim to improve is grain yield which is a highly quantitative trait controlled by various agro-morphological traits. Twelve morphological traits such as Germination Percentage, Days to Spike Emergence, Plant Height, Spike Length, Awn Length, Tillers/Plant, Leaf Angle, Seeds/Spike, Plant Thickness, 1000-Grain Weight, Harvest Index and Days to Maturity have been considered as independent factors. Correlation, regression, and principal component analysis (PCA) are used to identify the different durum wheat traits, which significantly contribute to the yield. The necessary assumptions required for applying regression modeling have been tested and all the assumptions are satisfied by the observed data. The outliers are detected in the observations of fixed traits and Grain Yield. Some observations are detected as outliers but the outlying observations did not show any influence on the regression fit. For selecting a parsimonious regression model for durum wheat, best subset regression, and stepwise regression techniques have been applied. The best subset regression analysis revealed that Germination Percentage, Tillers/Plant, and Seeds/Spike have a marked increasing effect whereas Plant thickness has a negative effect on durum wheat yield. While stepwise regression analysis identified that the traits, Germination Percentage, Tillers/Plant, and Seeds/Spike significantly contribute to increasing the durum wheat yield. The simple correlation coefficient specified the significant positive correlation of Grain Yield with Germination Percentage, Number of Tillers/Plant, Seeds/Spike, and Harvest Index. These results of correlation analysis directed the importance of morphological characters and their significant positive impact on Grain Yield. The results of PCA showed that most variation (70%) among data set can be explained by the first five components. It also identified that Seeds/Spike; 1000-Grain Weight and Harvest Index have a higher influence in contributing to the durum wheat yield. Based on the results it is recommended that these important parameters might be considered and focused in future durum wheat breeding programs to develop high yield varieties.

Kaleidoscoping public understanding of science on hygiene, health and plague: a survey in the aftermath of a plague epidemic in India

In September 1994 a plague epidemic hit a number of cities in India. Though the spread of the disease was controlled within a short period of about one month, its influences on various channels of information, on the functioning of government departments (especially health and sanitation), on the scientific community and on people's scientific information level were remarkable. This paper analyzes the responses of 1127 individuals interviewed in December 1994. The data indicates high levels of informedness about health, hygiene and plague, with little reference to extra-scientific explanations of the causes of the epidemic. Respondents expressed a high degree of confidence in the modern system of medicine. From this analysis we also infer that the public could not be described as 'superstitious', 'unscientific' or 'unhygienic': only when denied access to information and civic amenities did they show extra-scientific thinking or 'unhygienic' behaviour.