1
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Yang W, Wallace E, Vecchi GA, Donnelly JP, Emile-Geay J, Hakim GJ, Horowitz LW, Sullivan RM, Tardif R, van Hengstum PJ, Winkler TS. Last millennium hurricane activity linked to endogenous climate variability. Nat Commun 2024; 15:816. [PMID: 38280878 PMCID: PMC10821936 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45112-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2023] [Accepted: 01/16/2024] [Indexed: 01/29/2024] Open
Abstract
Despite increased Atlantic hurricane risk, projected trends in hurricane frequency in the warming climate are still highly uncertain, mainly due to short instrumental record that limits our understanding of hurricane activity and its relationship to climate. Here we extend the record to the last millennium using two independent estimates: a reconstruction from sedimentary paleohurricane records and a statistical model of hurricane activity using sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We find statistically significant agreement between the two estimates and the late 20th century hurricane frequency is within the range seen over the past millennium. Numerical simulations using a hurricane-permitting climate model suggest that hurricane activity was likely driven by endogenous climate variability and linked to anomalous SSTs of warm Atlantic and cold Pacific. Volcanic eruptions can induce peaks in hurricane activity, but such peaks would likely be too weak to be detected in the proxy record due to large endogenous variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenchang Yang
- Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
| | - Elizabeth Wallace
- Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA
| | - Gabriel A Vecchi
- Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
- High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Jeffrey P Donnelly
- Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Falmouth, MA, USA
| | - Julien Emile-Geay
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Gregory J Hakim
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Richard M Sullivan
- Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA
| | - Robert Tardif
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Peter J van Hengstum
- Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
- Department of Marine and Coastal Environmental Science, Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, TX, USA
| | - Tyler S Winkler
- Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Falmouth, MA, USA
- Department of Marine and Coastal Environmental Science, Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, TX, USA
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2
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Lockwood JW, Oppenheimer M, Lin N, Kopp RE, Vecchi GA, Gori A. Correlation Between Sea-Level Rise and Aspects of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity in CMIP6 Models. Earths Future 2022; 10:e2021EF002462. [PMID: 35860749 PMCID: PMC9285431 DOI: 10.1029/2021ef002462] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2021] [Revised: 01/27/2022] [Accepted: 03/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Future coastal flood hazard at many locations will be impacted by both tropical cyclone (TC) change and relative sea-level rise (SLR). Despite sea level and TC activity being influenced by common thermodynamic and dynamic climate variables, their future changes are generally considered independently. Here, we investigate correlations between SLR and TC change derived from simulations of 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. We first explore correlations between SLR and TC activity by inference from two large-scale factors known to modulate TC activity: potential intensity (PI) and vertical wind shear. Under the high emissions SSP5-8.5, SLR is strongly correlated with PI change (positively) and vertical wind shear change (negatively) over much of the western North Atlantic and North West Pacific, with global mean surface air temperature (GSAT) modulating the co-variability. To explore the impact of the joint changes on flood hazard, we conduct climatological-hydrodynamic modeling at five sites along the US East and Gulf Coasts. Positive correlations between SLR and TC change alter flood hazard projections, particularly at Wilmington, Charleston and New Orleans. For example, if positive correlations between SLR and TC changes are ignored in estimating flood hazard at Wilmington, the average projected change to the historical 100 years storm tide event is under-estimated by 12%. Our results suggest that flood hazard assessments that neglect the joint influence of these factors and that do not reflect the full distribution of GSAT change may not accurately represent future flood hazard.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Michael Oppenheimer
- Department of GeosciencePrinceton UniversityPrincetonNJUSA
- Princeton School of Public and International AffairsPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNJUSA
- High Meadows Environmental InstitutePrincetonNJUSA
| | - Ning Lin
- Civil and Environmental EngineeringPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNJUSA
| | - Robert E. Kopp
- Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric SciencesRutgers UniversityNew BrunswickNJUSA
- Department of Earth and Planetary SciencesRutgers UniversityPiscatawayNJUSA
| | - Gabriel A. Vecchi
- Department of GeosciencePrinceton UniversityPrincetonNJUSA
- High Meadows Environmental InstitutePrincetonNJUSA
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences ProgramPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNJUSA
| | - Avantika Gori
- Civil and Environmental EngineeringPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNJUSA
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3
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Chan D, Vecchi GA, Yang W, Huybers P. Improved simulation of 19th- and 20th-century North Atlantic hurricane frequency after correcting historical sea surface temperatures. Sci Adv 2021; 7:7/26/eabg6931. [PMID: 34172449 PMCID: PMC8232916 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abg6931] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2021] [Accepted: 05/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Confidence in dynamical and statistical hurricane prediction is rooted in the skillful reproduction of hurricane frequency using sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, but an ensemble of high-resolution atmospheric simulation extending to the 1880s indicates model-data disagreements that exceed those expected from documented uncertainties. We apply recently developed corrections for biases in historical SSTs that lead to revisions in tropical to subtropical SST gradients by ±0.1°C. Revised atmospheric simulations have 20% adjustments in the decadal variations of hurricane frequency and become more consistent with observations. The improved simulation skill from revised SST estimates not only supports the utility of high-resolution atmospheric models for hurricane projections but also highlights the need for accurate estimates of past and future patterns of SST changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Duo Chan
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
| | - Gabriel A Vecchi
- Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Wenchang Yang
- Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Peter Huybers
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
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4
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Baker RE, Yang W, Vecchi GA, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT. Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. Nat Commun 2021; 12:846. [PMID: 33558479 PMCID: PMC7870658 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-20991-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2020] [Accepted: 01/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
High susceptibility has limited the role of climate in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date. However, understanding a possible future effect of climate, as susceptibility declines and the northern-hemisphere winter approaches, is an important open question. Here we use an epidemiological model, constrained by observations, to assess the sensitivity of future SARS-CoV-2 disease trajectories to local climate conditions. We find this sensitivity depends on both the susceptibility of the population and the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in reducing transmission. Assuming high susceptibility, more stringent NPIs may be required to minimize outbreak risk in the winter months. Our results suggest that the strength of NPIs remain the greatest determinant of future pre-vaccination outbreak size. While we find a small role for meteorological forecasts in projecting outbreak severity, reducing uncertainty in epidemiological parameters will likely have a more substantial impact on generating accurate predictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel E Baker
- High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
| | - Wenchang Yang
- Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Gabriel A Vecchi
- High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
- Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - C Jessica E Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
- School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Bryan T Grenfell
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
- School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
- Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
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5
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Baker RE, Park SW, Yang W, Vecchi GA, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT. The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:30547-30553. [PMID: 33168723 PMCID: PMC7720203 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2013182117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 262] [Impact Index Per Article: 65.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases. Disruptions to the seasonal transmission patterns of these diseases may have consequences for the timing and severity of future outbreaks. Here we consider the implications of SARS-CoV-2 NPIs for two endemic infections circulating in the United States of America: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and seasonal influenza. Using laboratory surveillance data from 2020, we estimate that RSV transmission declined by at least 20% in the United States at the start of the NPI period. We simulate future trajectories of both RSV and influenza, using an epidemic model. As susceptibility increases over the NPI period, we find that substantial outbreaks of RSV may occur in future years, with peak outbreaks likely occurring in the winter of 2021-2022. Longer NPIs, in general, lead to larger future outbreaks although they may display complex interactions with baseline seasonality. Results for influenza broadly echo this picture, but are more uncertain; future outbreaks are likely dependent on the transmissibility and evolutionary dynamics of circulating strains.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel E Baker
- Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
| | - Sang Woo Park
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
| | - Wenchang Yang
- Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
| | - Gabriel A Vecchi
- Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
- Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
| | - C Jessica E Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
| | - Bryan T Grenfell
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
- Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892
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6
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Baker RE, Yang W, Vecchi GA, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT. Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Science 2020; 369:315-319. [PMID: 32423996 PMCID: PMC7243362 DOI: 10.1126/science.abc2535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 189] [Impact Index Per Article: 47.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2020] [Accepted: 05/14/2020] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
Abstract
Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given that high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic by probing different scenarios based on known coronavirus biology. We find that although variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen, the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size. A preliminary analysis of nonpharmaceutical control measures indicates that they may moderate the pandemic-climate interaction through susceptible depletion. Our findings suggest that without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel E Baker
- Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA. .,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Wenchang Yang
- Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Gabriel A Vecchi
- Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - C Jessica E Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Bryan T Grenfell
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
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7
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Baker RE, Mahmud AS, Wagner CE, Yang W, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Vecchi GA, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT. Epidemic dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in current and future climates. Nat Commun 2019; 10:5512. [PMID: 31797866 PMCID: PMC6892805 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13562-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2019] [Accepted: 11/14/2019] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
A key question for infectious disease dynamics is the impact of the climate on future burden. Here, we evaluate the climate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), an important determinant of disease in young children. We combine a dataset of county-level observations from the US with state-level observations from Mexico, spanning much of the global range of climatological conditions. Using a combination of nonlinear epidemic models with statistical techniques, we find consistent patterns of climate drivers at a continental scale explaining latitudinal differences in the dynamics and timing of local epidemics. Strikingly, estimated effects of precipitation and humidity on transmission mirror prior results for influenza. We couple our model with projections for future climate, to show that temperature-driven increases to humidity may lead to a northward shift in the dynamic patterns observed and that the likelihood of severe outbreaks of RSV hinges on projections for extreme rainfall.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel E Baker
- Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
| | - Ayesha S Mahmud
- Planetary Health Alliance, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.,Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Caroline E Wagner
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Wenchang Yang
- Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Virginia E Pitzer
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Cecile Viboud
- Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Gabriel A Vecchi
- Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - C Jessica E Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Bryan T Grenfell
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.,Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
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8
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Bhatia KT, Vecchi GA, Knutson TR, Murakami H, Kossin J, Dixon KW, Whitlock CE. Author Correction: Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Nat Commun 2019; 10:979. [PMID: 30804348 PMCID: PMC6389968 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08963-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Kieran T Bhatia
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA. .,Geosciences Department, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USA.
| | - Gabriel A Vecchi
- Geosciences Department, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USA.,Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USA
| | - Thomas R Knutson
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA
| | - Hiroyuki Murakami
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA.,University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA
| | - James Kossin
- NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Center for Weather and Climate, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
| | - Keith W Dixon
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA
| | - Carolyn E Whitlock
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA.,Engility Inc., Dover, NJ, 07806, USA
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9
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Bhatia KT, Vecchi GA, Knutson TR, Murakami H, Kossin J, Dixon KW, Whitlock CE. Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Nat Commun 2019; 10:635. [PMID: 30733439 PMCID: PMC6367364 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08471-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2018] [Accepted: 01/08/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify are typically associated with the highest forecast errors and cause a disproportionate amount of human and financial losses. Therefore, it is crucial to understand if, and why, there are observed upward trends in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982-2009. We compare the observed trends to natural variability in bias-corrected, high-resolution, global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kieran T Bhatia
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA. .,Geosciences Department, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USA.
| | - Gabriel A Vecchi
- Geosciences Department, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USA.,Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USA
| | - Thomas R Knutson
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA
| | - Hiroyuki Murakami
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA.,University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA
| | - James Kossin
- NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Center for Weather and Climate, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
| | - Keith W Dixon
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA
| | - Carolyn E Whitlock
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA.,Engility Inc., Dover, NJ, 07806, USA
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10
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Muñoz ÁG, Thomson MC, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Vecchi GA, Chourio X, Nájera P, Moran Z, Yang X. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted? Front Microbiol 2017; 8:1291. [PMID: 28747901 PMCID: PMC5506221 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2017.01291] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2017] [Accepted: 06/27/2017] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower-but still of potential use to decision-makers-for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ángel G. Muñoz
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton UniversityPrinceton, NJ, United States
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton UniversityPrinceton, NJ, United States
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute, Columbia UniversityNew York, NY, United States
| | - Madeleine C. Thomson
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute, Columbia UniversityNew York, NY, United States
- Mailman School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia UniversityNew York, NY, United States
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre on Early Warning Systems for Malaria and other Climate Sensitive Diseases, Columbia UniversityNew York, NY, United States
| | - Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra
- Center for Global Health and Translational Science and Department of Medicine, State University of New York Upstate Medical UniversitySyracuse, NY, United States
| | - Gabriel A. Vecchi
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton UniversityPrinceton, NJ, United States
- Geosciences Department, and Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton UniversityPrinceton, NJ, United States
| | - Xandre Chourio
- Latin American Observatory for Climate Events, Centro de Modelado Científico, Universidad del ZuliaMaracaibo, Venezuela
| | - Patricia Nájera
- International Health Regulations/Epidemic Alert and Response, and Water Borne Diseases, Communicable Diseases and Health Analysis Department, Pan American Health OrganizationWashington, DC, United States
| | - Zelda Moran
- Mailman School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia UniversityNew York, NY, United States
| | - Xiaosong Yang
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton UniversityPrinceton, NJ, United States
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11
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Tommasi D, Stock CA, Pegion K, Vecchi GA, Methot RD, Alexander MA, Checkley DM. Improved management of small pelagic fisheries through seasonal climate prediction. Ecol Appl 2017; 27:378-388. [PMID: 28221708 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1458] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2016] [Revised: 09/09/2016] [Accepted: 10/03/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Populations of small pelagic fish are strongly influenced by climate. The inability of managers to anticipate environment-driven fluctuations in stock productivity or distribution can lead to overfishing and stock collapses, inflexible management regulations inducing shifts in the functional response to human predators, lost opportunities to harvest populations, bankruptcies in the fishing industry, and loss of resilience in the human food supply. Recent advances in dynamical global climate prediction systems allow for sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly predictions at a seasonal scale over many shelf ecosystems. Here we assess the utility of SST predictions at this "fishery relevant" scale to inform management, using Pacific sardine as a case study. The value of SST anomaly predictions to management was quantified under four harvest guidelines (HGs) differing in their level of integration of SST data and predictions. The HG that incorporated stock biomass forecasts informed by skillful SST predictions led to increases in stock biomass and yield, and reductions in the probability of yield and biomass falling below socioeconomic or ecologically acceptable levels. However, to mitigate the risk of collapse in the event of an erroneous forecast, it was important to combine such forecast-informed harvest controls with additional harvest restrictions at low biomass.
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Affiliation(s)
- Désirée Tommasi
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, 08544, USA
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey, 08540, USA
| | - Charles A Stock
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey, 08540, USA
| | - Kathleen Pegion
- Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, 22030, USA
| | - Gabriel A Vecchi
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey, 08540, USA
| | - Richard D Methot
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, 98112, USA
| | | | - David M Checkley
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, 92093, USA
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12
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Kossin JP, Emanuel KA, Vecchi GA. The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity. Nature 2014; 509:349-52. [PMID: 24828193 DOI: 10.1038/nature13278] [Citation(s) in RCA: 375] [Impact Index Per Article: 37.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2013] [Accepted: 03/21/2014] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder the detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity. This limits our confidence in evaluating proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment. Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and identify a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity over the past 30 years. The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over the same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure, and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is thought to have anthropogenic contributions.
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Affiliation(s)
- James P Kossin
- NOAA National Climatic Data Center, University of Wisconsin/CIMSS, 1225 West Dayton Street, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
| | - Kerry A Emanuel
- Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA
| | - Gabriel A Vecchi
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08540, USA
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabriel A. Vecchi
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA
| | - Gabriele Villarini
- IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52246, USA
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14
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Vecchi GA, Harrison DE. Interannual Indian Rainfall Variability and Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2013. [DOI: 10.1029/147gm14] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/24/2023]
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15
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Vecchi GA, Msadek R, Delworth TL, Dixon KW, Guilyardi E, Hawkins E, Karspeck AR, Mignot J, Robson J, Rosati A, Zhang R. Comment on “Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N”. Science 2012; 338:604; author reply 604. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1222566] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Gabriel A. Vecchi
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540–6649, USA
| | - Rym Msadek
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540–6649, USA
| | - Thomas L. Delworth
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540–6649, USA
| | - Keith W. Dixon
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540–6649, USA
| | - Eric Guilyardi
- Universite Pierre et Marie Currie/CNRS/IRD/MNHN LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris, France
- National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Ed Hawkins
- National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | | | - Juliette Mignot
- Universite Pierre et Marie Currie/CNRS/IRD/MNHN LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris, France
| | - Jon Robson
- National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Anthony Rosati
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540–6649, USA
| | - Rong Zhang
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540–6649, USA
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Villarini G, Smith JA, Baeck ML, Marchok T, Vecchi GA. Characterization of rainfall distribution and flooding associated with U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones: Analyses of Hurricanes Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne (2004). ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd016175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 78] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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McPhaden MJ, Foltz GR, Lee T, Murty VSN, Ravichandran M, Vecchi GA, Vialard J, Wiggert JD, Yu L. Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions During Cyclone Nargis. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2009eo070001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 100] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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19
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Villarini G, Vecchi GA, Knutson TR, Smith JA. Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious? ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd015493] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Abstract
Climate models robustly predict that the climate of southwestern North America, defined as the area from the western Great Plains to the Pacific Ocean and from the Oregon border to southern Mexico, will dry throughout the current century as a consequence of rising greenhouse gases. This regional drying is part of a general drying of the subtropics and poleward expansion of the subtropical dry zones. Through an analysis of 15 coupled climate models it is shown here that the drying is driven by a reduction of winter season precipitation associated with increased moisture divergence by the mean flow and reduced moisture convergence by transient eddies. Due to the presence of large amplitude decadal variations of presumed natural origin, observations to date cannot confirm that this transition to a drier climate is already underway, but it is anticipated that the anthropogenic drying will reach the amplitude of natural decadal variability by midcentury. In addition to this drop in total precipitation, warming is already causing a decline in mountain snow mass and an advance in the timing of spring snow melt disrupting the natural water storage systems that are part of the region's water supply system. Uncertainties in how radiative forcing will impact the tropical Pacific climate system create uncertainties in the amplitude of drying in southwest North America with a La Niña-like response creating a worst case scenario of greater drying.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard Seager
- Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Paisades, NY 10025, USA.
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Bender MA, Knutson TR, Tuleya RE, Sirutis JJ, Vecchi GA, Garner ST, Held IM. Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science 2010; 327:454-8. [PMID: 20093471 DOI: 10.1126/science.1180568] [Citation(s) in RCA: 188] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20 degrees N.
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Affiliation(s)
- Morris A Bender
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabriel A Vecchi
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA.
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Vecchi GA, Soden BJ. Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity. Nature 2008; 450:1066-70. [PMID: 18075590 DOI: 10.1038/nature06423] [Citation(s) in RCA: 311] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2007] [Accepted: 10/26/2007] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
The response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming is widely debated. It is often assumed that warmer sea surface temperatures provide a more favourable environment for the development and intensification of tropical cyclones, but cyclone genesis and intensity are also affected by the vertical thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere. Here we use climate models and observational reconstructions to explore the relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone 'potential intensity'--a measure that provides an upper bound on cyclone intensity and can also reflect the likelihood of cyclone development. We find that changes in local sea surface temperature are inadequate for characterizing even the sign of changes in potential intensity, but that long-term changes in potential intensity are closely related to the regional structure of warming; regions that warm more than the tropical average are characterized by increased potential intensity, and vice versa. We use this relationship to reconstruct changes in potential intensity over the twentieth century from observational reconstructions of sea surface temperature. We find that, even though tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at a historical high, Atlantic potential intensity probably peaked in the 1930s and 1950s, and recent values are near the historical average. Our results indicate that--per unit local sea surface temperature change--the response of tropical cyclone activity to natural climate variations, which tend to involve localized changes in sea surface temperature, may be larger than the response to the more uniform patterns of greenhouse-gas-induced warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabriel A Vecchi
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey 08542, USA.
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Vecchi GA, Soden BJ, Wittenberg AT, Held IM, Leetmaa A, Harrison MJ. Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature 2006; 441:73-6. [PMID: 16672967 DOI: 10.1038/nature04744] [Citation(s) in RCA: 107] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2005] [Accepted: 03/22/2006] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean--driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east--known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabriel A Vecchi
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08540-6649, USA.
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