Gestational hemodilution as a putative risk factor for postpartum depression: A large-scale nationwide longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND

While anemia during pregnancy has been linked to increased postpartum depression (PPD) risk, longitudinal studies on the association between gestational hemodilution, represented by decreased hematocrit (Hct) during the transition from the 1st to 2nd trimester, and PPD risk, are scarce. The current study aimed to investigate this association in a nationwide cohort over the perinatal period.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 104,715 women who gave birth between January 2008 and December 2015. The cohort was followed up for new-onset PPD during the year post birth and gestational hemodilution was assessed by the change in Hct levels (Δ: 2nd-1st trimester). The cohort was divided into three hemodilution groupings: maximal and minimal 10 % of mothers and intermediate 80 %. Multivariable regression analyses were performed to estimate the association between gestational hemodilution and PPD, adjusting for confounders.

RESULTS

Among the full cohort, 2.2 % (n = 2263) met the definition of new-onset PPD. Mothers with greater hemodilution had higher rates of PPD: 2.7 % (n = 269) in the maximal hemodilution group, 2.1 % (n = 1783) in the intermediate and 1.9 % (n = 211) in the minimal hemodilution group (p < 0.001). The maximal hemodilution group had higher rates of pre-gestational psychiatric disorders (p < 0.001) and higher adjusted risk for PPD [OR = 1.18, 95 % CI (1.04, 1.35)].

LIMITATIONS

Data on iron levels and supplementation were unavailable, thus it could not be adjusted for in the analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Women in the top 10th percentile of gestational hemodilution may be at risk for PPD, justifying monitoring of gestational Hct as a biomarker for PPD.

Real-world data comparing FOLFIRINOX versus gemcitabine nab-paclitaxel as first-line treatment of metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients in the United States

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Background: The common first-line therapies for metastatic adenocarcinoma of the pancreas (mPC) are FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel (Gem-Nab-P). However, these treatments have not been directly compared in a clinical trial and comparative real-world data analyses on their effectiveness are limited. Using real-world data, we evaluated the impact on overall survival and post-treatment hospitalizations of 1L FOLFIRINOX vs. Gem-Nab-P in individuals with mPC. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1L treatment of patients with mPC between 1/2015 and 6/2020, utilizing administrative claims data from the Anthem Cancer Care Quality Program. Real-world overall survival (rwOS) was defined as time from diagnosis to death. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to adjust for age, ECOG, Socioeconomic index (SDI), comorbidity, metastatic sites and pre-treatment. Median rwOS was estimated using the weighted Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Our cohort included 1,102 1L mPC patients, 566 (51.4%) treated with FOLFIRINOX (F), and 536 (48.6%) treated with Gem-Nab-P (GNP). F-treated patients were generally younger, with better performance status (ECOG PS), fewer comorbidities and living in regions with higher socioeconomic index. Following adjustments, the Median rwOS was 9.28 and 6.82 months for F-initiated patients and GNP, respectively (p-value = 2.5e-07). This survival benefit of F was observed among all sub-groups, including different ECOG PS, ages, socioeconomic index and metastatic sites. F-treated patients also had fewer post-treatment hospitalizations (p-value=0.027) and lower post-treatment costs (p-value=0.00004). Conclusions: Our retrospective cohort study demonstrated that FOLFIRINOX is associated with improved survival of approximately 2 months over Gem-Nab-P and is also associated with fewer post-treatments complications. A randomized controlled trial comparing these first line treatments is warranted to test the survival and post-treatment complications benefit of FOLFIRINOX over Gem-Nab-P.[Table: see text]

Comparison of FOLFIRINOX vs Gemcitabine Plus Nab-Paclitaxel as First-Line Chemotherapy for Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Importance

FOLFIRINOX (leucovorin calcium [folinic acid], fluorouracil, irinotecan hydrochloride, and oxaliplatin) and gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel are the 2 common first-line therapies for metastatic adenocarcinoma of the pancreas (mPC), but they have not been directly compared in a clinical trial, and comparative clinical data analyses on their effectiveness are limited.

Objective

To compare the FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel treatments of mPC in clinical data and evaluate whether there are differences in overall survival and posttreatment complications between them.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective, nonrandomized comparative effectiveness study used data from the AIM Specialty Health-Anthem Cancer Care Quality Program and from administrative claims of commercially insured patients, spanning 388 outpatient centers and clinics for medical oncology located in 44 states across the US. Effectiveness and safety of the treatments were analyzed by matching or adjusting for age, Charlson Comorbidity Index, ECOG performance status (PS) score, Social Deprivation Index (SDI), liver and lymph node metastasis, prior radiotherapy or surgical procedures, and year of treatment. Patients with mPC treated between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2019, and followed up until June 30, 2020, were included in the analysis.

Interventions

Initiation of treatment with FOLFIRINOX or gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Outcomes were overall survival and posttreatment costs and hospitalization. Median survival time was calculated using Kaplan-Meier estimates adjusted with inverse probability of treatment weighting and 1:1 matching.

Results

Among the 1102 patients included in the analysis (618 men [56.1%]; median age, 60.0 [IQR, 55.5-63.7] years), those treated with FOLFIRINOX were younger (median age, 59.1 [IQR, 53.9-63.3] vs 61.2 [IQR, 57.2-64.3] years; P < .001), with better PS scores (226 [39.9%] with PS of 0 in the FOLFIRINOX group vs 176 [32.8%] in the gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel group; P = .02), fewer comorbidities (median Charlson Comorbidity Index, 0.0 [IQR, 0.0-1.0] vs 1.0 [IQR, 0.0-1.0]), and lower SDI (median, 36.0 [IQR, 16.2-61.0] vs 42.0 [IQR, 23.8-66.2]). After adjustments, the median overall survival was 9.27 (IQR, 8.74-9.76) and 6.87 (IQR, 6.41-7.66) months for patients treated with FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel, respectively (P < .001). This survival benefit was observed among all subgroups, including different ECOG PS scores, ages, SDIs, and metastatic sites. FOLFIRINOX-treated patients also had 17.3% fewer posttreatment hospitalizations (P = .03) and 20% lower posttreatment costs (P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this comparative effectiveness cohort study, FOLFIRINOX was associated with improved survival of approximately 2 months compared with gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel and was also associated with fewer posttreatment complications. A randomized clinical trial comparing these first-line treatments is warranted to test the survival and posttreatment hospitalization (or complications) benefit of FOLFIRINOX compared with gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel.

Use of the Whole Country Insulin Consumption Data in Israel to Determine the Prevalence of Type 1 Diabetes in Children <5 Years of Age Before and During Rotavirus Vaccination

BACKGROUND

Recent studies showed that rotavirus vaccination may affect the prevalence of type 1 diabetes (T1D). The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of early childhood (<5 years) T1D before and during the introduction of rotavirus vaccination in Israel by syndromic surveillance.

METHODS

Data on insulin purchases reported by Israel's four Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs) were retrieved from the National Program for Quality Indicators in Community Healthcare.

RESULTS

During the prevaccination years (2002-2007), a steady increase in insulin purchases was reported in the young (<5 years). The period percent change (PC) of children <5 years old diagnosed with T1D inferred from purchased insulin prescriptions increased by 50.0%, and the annual percent change (APC) increased by 10.0% (p = 0.01). During the period of free, universal Rotavirus vaccination (2011-2018), the PC for T1D diagnoses among children <5 years of age decreased by 3.8% with an APC of -2.5% (p = 0.14). There was a significant difference (p = 0.002) between the increasing trend in insulin use before vaccination versus the decreasing trend after vaccination.

CONCLUSION

Rotavirus vaccination correlated with attenuation of the increasing rate in the prevalence of T1D in <5-year-old children in Israel.

Development and validation of a machine learning-based postpartum depression prediction model: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Currently, postpartum depression (PPD) screening is mainly based on self-report symptom-based assessment, with lack of an objective, integrative tool which identifies women at increased risk, before the emergent of PPD. We developed and validated a machine learning-based PPD prediction model utilizing electronic health record (EHR) data, and identified novel PPD predictors.

METHODS

A nationwide longitudinal cohort that included 214,359 births between January 2008 and December 2015, divided into model training and validation sets, was constructed utilizing Israel largest health maintenance organization's EHR-database. PPD was defined as new diagnosis of a depressive episode or antidepressant prescription within the first year postpartum. A gradient-boosted decision tree algorithm was applied to EHR-derived sociodemographic, clinical, and obstetric features.

RESULTS

Among the birth cohort, 1.9% (n = 4104) met the case definition of new-onset PPD. In the validation set, the prediction model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.712 (95% confidence interval, 0.690-0.733), with a sensitivity of 0.349 and a specificity of 0.905 at the 90th percentile risk threshold, identifying PPDs at a rate more than three times higher than the overall set (positive and negative predictive values were 0.074 and 0.985, respectively). The model's strongest predictors included both well-recognized (e.g., past depression) and less-recognized (differing patterns of blood tests) PPD risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning-based models incorporating EHR-derived predictors, could augment symptom-based screening practice by identifying the high-risk population at greatest need for preventive intervention, before development of PPD.

Environmental mismatch and obesity in humans: The Jerusalem Perinatal Family Follow-Up Study

BACKGROUND

According to the hypothesis of Gluckman and Hanson, mismatch between the developmental and postdevelopmental environments may lead to detrimental health impacts such as obesity. While several animal studies support the mismatch theory, there is a scarcity of evidence from human-based studies.

OBJECTIVES

Our study aims to examine whether a mismatch between the developmental and young-adult environments affect obesity in young adults of the Jerusalem Perinatal Family Follow-Up Study.

METHODS

Data from The Jerusalem Perinatal Family Follow-Up Study birth cohort was used to characterize early and late environments using offspring and parental sociodemographic and lifestyle information at birth, age 32 (n = 1140) and 42 (n = 404). Scores characterizing the early and late environments were constructed using factor analysis. To assess associations of mismatch with obesity, regression models were fitted using the first factor of each environment and adiposity measures at age 32 and 42.

RESULTS

Having a stable non-beneficial environment at birth and young-adulthood was most strongly associated with increased adiposity, while a stable beneficial environment was most favorable. The transition from a beneficial environment at birth to a less beneficial environment at young-adulthood was associated with higher obesity measures, including higher BMI (β = 0.979; 95% CI: 0.029, 1.929), waist circumference (β = 2.729; 95% CI: 0.317, 5.140) and waist-hip ratio (β = 0.017; 95% CI: 0.004, 0.029) compared with those experiencing a beneficial environment at both time points. Transition from a less beneficial environment at birth to a beneficial environment at adulthood was also associated with higher obesity measurements (BMI -β = 1.116; 95% CI: 0.085, 2.148; waist circumference -β = 2.736; 95% CI: 0.215, 5.256).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides some support for the mismatch hypothesis. While there is indication that an accumulation of the effects of the non-beneficial environment has the strongest detrimental impact on obesity outcomes, our results also indicate that a mismatch between the developmental and later environments may result in maladaptation of the individual leading to obesity.

The successful use of extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal as a rescue therapy in a patient with severe COVID-19 pneumonitis

We present a patient with severe COVID-19 pneumonitis; poor respiratory compliance; dangerously high ventilator pressures; and hypercapnia refractory to conventional treatment including low tidal volume ventilation, neuromuscular blockade and prone position ventilation. Extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal was used as a rescue therapy to facilitate safer ventilator pressures and arterial partial pressures of carbon dioxide. After 6 days of treatment, the patient had improved to the extent that the extracorporeal support was able to be weaned and the patient was decannulated from the device. Following a prolonged respiratory wean, the patient was subsequently discharged from the intensive care unit and then from the hospital to home with no adverse events related to the therapy.

It's how you say it: Systematic A/B testing of digital messaging cut hospital no-show rates

Failure to attend hospital appointments has a detrimental impact on care quality. Documented efforts to address this challenge have only modestly decreased no-show rates. Behavioral economics theory has suggested that more effective messages may lead to increased responsiveness. In complex, real-world settings, it has proven difficult to predict the optimal message composition. In this study, we aimed to systematically compare the effects of several pre-appointment message formats on no-show rates. We randomly assigned members from Clalit Health Services (CHS), the largest payer-provider healthcare organization in Israel, who had scheduled outpatient clinic appointments in 14 CHS hospitals, to one of nine groups. Each individual received a pre-appointment SMS text reminder five days before the appointment, which differed by group. No-show and advanced cancellation rates were compared between the eight alternative messages, with the previously used generic message serving as the control. There were 161,587 CHS members who received pre-appointment reminder messages who were included in this study. Five message frames significantly differed from the control group. Members who received a reminder designed to evoke emotional guilt had a no-show rates of 14.2%, compared with 21.1% in the control group (odds ratio [OR]: 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67, 0.76), and an advanced cancellation rate of 26.3% compared with 17.2% in the control group (OR: 1.2, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.21). Four additional reminder formats demonstrated significantly improved impact on no-show rates, compared to the control, though not as effective as the best performing message format. Carefully selecting the narrative of pre-appointment SMS reminders can lead to a marked decrease in no-show rates. The process of a/b testing, selecting, and adopting optimal messages is a practical example of implementing the learning healthcare system paradigm, which could prevent up to one-third of the 352,000 annually unattended appointments in Israel.

Abstract P4-15-02: Impact of radiotherapy and endocrine therapy on further events: Final multivariate analysis of a prospective, national cohort study of screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast

Key words: DCIS, radiotherapy, endocrine therapy, survival, surgical margins

Background:

The benefits and risks of breast screening remain controversial, with particular concern that ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) may be over-diagnosed and over-treated. There is little prospective data on treatment or outcomes for screen detected DCIS.

Methods:

A prospective cohort of non-invasive lesions diagnosed through the United Kingdom National Health Service Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP) (1 April 2003 to 31 March 2012) was linked to national databases and case note review to analyse patterns of care, recurrence and mortality.

Results:

Screen-detected DCIS in 9938 women was analysed, 33% (9938/30041) of women with a final diagnosis of non-invasive breast neoplasia diagnosed through the NHSBSP over the same time.

The patients (mean age was 60 years: range 46-87 years) were treated by breast conservation surgery (BCS; 7007; 70.5%) or mastectomy (2931). At 64 months median follow up, 697 (6.8%) had further DCIS or invasive breast cancer after BCS (7.8%) or mastectomy (4.5%) (p&lt;0.001) and 228 women (2.3%) developed contralateral malignancy.

Breast radiotherapy (RT) after BCS (4363/7007; 62%) was associated with a 3.1% absolute reduction in any ipsilateral DCIS or invasive cancer (No RT: 7.2% vs RT: 4.1% (p&lt;0.001) and a 1.9% absolute reduction for ipsilateral invasive breast recurrence (No RT: 3.8% vs RT: 1.9% (p&lt;0.001), independent of excision margin width or size of DCIS. Women who did not receive RT after BCS had more ipsilateral events (p=0.008) when the radial excision margin was &lt;2mm. RT was rarely used after mastectomy for DCIS (33 women). Adjuvant endocrine therapy (prescribed for 1208/9938; 12.2%) was associated with a reduction in any ipsilateral recurrence, independent of whether women did (HR 0.57: 95% CI 0.41 - 0.80) or did not (HR 0.68: 95% CI 0.51 - 0.91) receive RT after BCS.

Among 321 (3.2%) women who died, 46 deaths (0.5%; 14.3% of all deaths) were attributed to invasive breast cancer. Death from breast cancer was uncommon and outnumbered 5:1 by death due to other causes. RT after BCS was associated with a non-significant 0.2% absolute reduction in breast cancer mortality. However, women who developed invasive breast cancer had a worse survival than those with further DCIS (p&lt;0.001).

Conclusions:

Recurrent DCIS or invasive cancer is uncommon following screen detected DCIS treated by surgery and adjuvant therapy. Both RT and endocrine therapy following surgery were associated with a significant reduction in further DCIS and invasive disease, but not breast cancer mortality, within 5 years of diagnosis. This study quantifies the benefits of radiotherapy and endocrine therapy to inform decision making in the management of screen detected DCIS.

Citation Format: Thompson AM, Clements K, Cheung S, Pinder SE, Lawrence G, Sawyer E, Kearins O, Ball GR, Tomlinson I, Hanby AM, Thomas J, Maxwell AJ, Wallis MG, Dodwell DJ. Impact of radiotherapy and endocrine therapy on further events: Final multivariate analysis of a prospective, national cohort study of screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2017 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2017 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P4-15-02.

Associations of socioeconomic position in childhood and young adulthood with cardiometabolic risk factors: the Jerusalem Perinatal Family Follow-Up Study

BACKGROUND

Several stages in the life course have been identified as important to the development of cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to assess the associations of childhood and adulthood socioeconomic position (SEP) and social mobility with cardiometabolic risk factors (CMRs) later in life.

METHODS

We conducted follow-up examinations of 1132 offspring, aged 32, within a population-based cohort of all births in Jerusalem from 1974 to 1976. SEP was indicated by parents' occupation and education, and adulthood SEP was based on offspring's occupation and education recorded at age 32. Linear regression models were used to investigate the associations of SEP and social mobility with CMRs.

RESULTS

Childhood-occupational SEP was negatively associated with body mass index (BMI; β=-0.29, p=0.031), fat percentage (fat%; β=-0.58, p=0.005), insulin (β=-0.01, p=0.031), triglycerides (β=-0.02, p=0.024) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C; β=-1.91, p=0.015), independent of adulthood SEP. Adulthood-occupational SEP was negatively associated with waist-to-hip ratio (WHR; β=-0.01, p=0.002), and positively with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C; β=0.87, p=0.030). Results remained similar after adjustment for smoking and inactivity. Childhood-educational SEP was associated with decreased WHR and LDL-C level (p=0.0002), and adulthood-educational SEP was inversely associated with BMI (p=0.001), waist circumference (p=0.008), WHR (p=0.001) and fat% (p=0.0002) and positively associated with HDL-C (p=0.030). Additionally, social mobility (mainly upward) was shown to have adverse cardiometabolic outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Both childhood and adulthood SEP contribute independently to CMR. The match-mismatch hypothesis may explain the elevated CMRs among participants experiencing social mobility. Identification of life-course SEP-related aspects that translate into social inequality in cardiovascular risk may facilitate efforts for improving health and for reducing disparities in cardiovascular disease.

Survival in patients with primary liver cancer, gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tract cancer and pancreatic cancer in Europe 1999-2007: Results of EUROCARE-5

BACKGROUND

The EUROCARE study collects and analyses survival data from population-based cancer registries (CRs) in Europe in order to provide data on between-country differences in survival and time trends in survival.

METHODS

This study analyses data on liver cancer, gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tract cancers ("biliary tract cancers"), and pancreatic cancer diagnosed in 2000-2007 from 88 CRs in 29 countries. Relative survival (RS) was estimated overall, by region, sex, age and period of diagnosis using the complete approach. Time trends in 5-year RS over 1999-2007 were also analysed using the period approach.

RESULTS

The prognosis of the studied cancers was poor. Age-standardised 5-year RS was 12% for liver cancer, 17% for biliary tract cancers and 7% for pancreatic cancer. There were some between-country differences in survival. In general, RS was low in Eastern Europe and high in Central and Southern Europe. For all sites, 5-year RS was similar in men and women and decreased with advancing age. No substantial changes in survival were reported for pancreatic cancer over the period 1999-2007. On average, there was a crude increase in 5-year RS of 3 percentage points between the periods 1999-2001 and 2005-2007 for liver cancer and biliary tract cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

The major changes in imaging techniques over the study period for the diagnosis of the three studied cancers did not result in an improvement in the prognosis of these cancers. In the near future, new innovative treatments might be the best way to improve the prognosis in these cancers.

Routes to diagnosis for sarcoma - Describing the sarcoma patient journey

BACKGROUND

Understanding the route to diagnosis for patients with cancer is important to improve the diagnostic pathway and therefore outcomes. We aimed to investigate routes to diagnosis for patients with sarcoma in England.

METHODS

National patient level datasets relating to 7716 soft tissue and 1240 bone sarcoma patients diagnosed between 2006 and 2008 were analysed. Routes to diagnosis were defined as: "Two Week Wait Referral", "GP Referral", "Other Outpatient", "Inpatient Elective", "Emergency Presentation", "Death Certificate Only" and "Unknown".

RESULTS

Patients with sarcoma are most likely to be diagnosed after "GP Referral" or "Emergency Presentation" and are less likely to be referred under a two week wait compared with other malignancies. Patients with bone sarcoma under 10 or over 80 years of age were more likely to present by emergency routes, as were patients with vertebral column, pelvis or unspecified site tumours and those with Ewing's sarcoma or sarcoma NOS. Patients with soft tissue sarcoma under 19 or over 80 years of age and patients with GI tract tumours were more likely to present by emergency routes. Patients presenting by emergency routes more often had metastases and had lower 1 year survival. Patients from least deprived quintiles more often presented by unknown routes: those from more deprived quintiles more often presented by emergency routes.

CONCLUSION

Routes to diagnosis for sarcoma patients differ from other cancers. Interventions to improve the diagnostic experience should consider the very young and elderly, tumours in abdominal, pelvic or spinal locations and on reducing emergency presentations.

Case-mix analysis and variation in rates of non-surgical treatment of older women with operable breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Non-surgical management of older women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive operable breast cancer is common in the UK, with up to 40 per cent of women aged over 70 years receiving primary endocrine therapy. Although this may be appropriate for frailer patients, for some it may result in treatment failure, contributing to the poor outcomes seen in this age group. Wide variation in the rates of non-operative management of breast cancer in older women exists across the UK. Case mix may explain some of this variation in practice.

METHODS

Data from two UK regional cancer registries were analysed to determine whether variation in treatment observed between 2002 and 2010 at hospital and clinician level persisted after adjustment for case mix. Expected case mix-adjusted surgery rates were derived by logistic regression using the variables age, proxy Charlson co-morbidity score, deprivation quintile, method of cancer detection, tumour size, stage, grade and node status.

RESULTS

Data on 17,129 women aged 70 years or more with ER-positive operable breast cancer were analysed. There was considerable variation in rates of surgery at both hospital and clinician level. Despite adjusting for case mix, this variation persisted at hospital level, although not at clinician level.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates variation in selection criteria for older women for operative treatment of early breast cancer, indicating that some older women may be undertreated or overtreated, and may partly explain the inferior disease outcomes in this age group. It emphasizes the urgent need for evidence-based guidelines for treatment selection criteria in older women with breast cancer.

A population based study of variations in operation rates for breast cancer, of comorbidity and prognosis at diagnosis: failure to operate for early breast cancer in older women

BACKGROUND

Older women are less likely to have surgery for operable breast cancer. This population-based study examines operation rates by age and identifies groups which present with early or late disease.

METHODS

37 000 cancer registrations for 2007 were combined with Hospital Episode Statistics comorbidity data for England. Operation rates were examined by age, ethnicity, deprivation, comorbidity, screen-detection, tumour size, grade and nodal status. Early and late presentation were correlated with Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) groups and tumour size.

RESULTS

The proportion of women not having surgery increased from 7-10% at ages 35-69 to 82% from age 90. From age 70, the proportion not having surgery rose by an average of 3.1% per year of age. Women with a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of ≥1 (which increased with age), with tumours >50 mm or who were node positive, were less likely to have surgery. Although women aged 70-79 were more likely to have larger tumours, their tumours were also more likely to have an excellent or good NPI (p < 0.001). Good prognosis tumours were more likely to be screen-detected, and less likely in women aged 0-39, the deprived and certain ethnic groups (p < 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

From age 70 there is an increasing failure to operate for breast cancer. Younger women and certain ethnic groups presented with more advanced tumours. Older women had larger tumours which were otherwise of good prognosis, and this would not account for the failure to operate which may in part be related to comorbidity in this age group.

Impact of bowel cancer screening on the management of colorectal cancer

AIM

The National Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (NBCSP) was introduced in the West Midlands in 2006. Studies, including the UK Bowel Cancer Screening Pilot, have reported an 18% reduction in mortality. This regional study assesses the impact of screening on elective and emergency colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery.

METHOD

Data were extracted from the West Midlands cancer registration database for CRC diagnosed in residents of the West Midlands between 1998 and 2010. Screen-detected cancers were identified by matching to the NBCSP database. Mode of admission and intervention was obtained by matching to Hospital Episode Statistics and the classification of Interventions and Procedures code.

RESULTS

Of 42,082 patients diagnosed with CRC, 30,309 received surgical treatment. From 1998 to 2005, the number of patients who underwent emergency surgery increased from 4362 to 18,357, with the proportion each year remaining constant (23.85 ± 0.95% each year). In the screening age group (60-69 years) over the same period, emergency surgery was performed in 918 of 4831 patients (19.15 ± 1.65% each year). Following the introduction of screening, the emergency surgery rate decreased each year, reaching 16% (406/2520) in all patients and 12% (101/829) in the screening age group in 2010 (P < 0.001). These changes in emergency surgery were mirrored by increases in elective surgery.

CONCLUSION

The NBCSP has had a positive impact on elective and emergency surgery for CRC in the West Midlands.

Breast cancer survival and stage at diagnosis in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK, 2000-2007: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

We investigate whether differences in breast cancer survival in six high-income countries can be explained by differences in stage at diagnosis using routine data from population-based cancer registries.

METHODS

We analysed the data on 257,362 women diagnosed with breast cancer during 2000-7 and registered in 13 population-based cancer registries in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK. Flexible parametric hazard models were used to estimate net survival and the excess hazard of dying from breast cancer up to 3 years after diagnosis.

RESULTS

Age-standardised 3-year net survival was 87-89% in the UK and Denmark, and 91-94% in the other four countries. Stage at diagnosis was relatively advanced in Denmark: only 30% of women had Tumour, Nodes, Metastasis (TNM) stage I disease, compared with 42-45% elsewhere. Women in the UK had low survival for TNM stage III-IV disease compared with other countries.

CONCLUSION

International differences in breast cancer survival are partly explained by differences in stage at diagnosis, and partly by differences in stage-specific survival. Low overall survival arises if the stage distribution is adverse (e.g. Denmark) but stage-specific survival is normal; or if the stage distribution is typical but stage-specific survival is low (e.g. UK). International differences in staging diagnostics and stage-specific cancer therapies should be investigated.

Are lower rates of surgery amongst older women with breast cancer in the UK explained by co-morbidity?

BACKGROUND

Around 60% of women ≥ 80 years old, in the UK do not have surgery for their breast cancer (vs<10% of younger age groups). The extent to which this difference can be accounted for by co-morbidity has not been established.

METHODS

A Cancer Registry/Hospital Episode Statistics-linked data set identified women aged ≥ 65 years diagnosed with invasive breast cancer (between 1 April 1997 and 31 March 2005) in two regions of the UK (n=23038). Receipt of surgery by age was investigated using logistic regression, adjusting for co-morbidity and other patient, tumour and treatment factors.

RESULTS

Overall, 72% of older women received surgery, varying from 86% of 65-69-year olds to 34% of women aged ≥ 85 years. The proportion receiving surgery fell with increasing co-morbidity (Charlson score 0=73%, score 1=66%, score 2+=49%). However, after adjustment for co-morbidity, older age still predicts lack of surgery. Compared with 65-69-year olds, the odds of surgery decreased from 0.74 (95% CI: 0.66-0.83) for 70-74-year olds to 0.13 (95% CI: 0.11-0.14) for women aged ≥ 85 years.

CONCLUSION

Although co-morbidity is associated with a reduced likelihood of surgery, it does not explain the shortfall in surgery amongst older women in the UK. Routine data on co-morbidity enables fairer comparison of treatment across population groups but needs to be more complete.

Reoperation rates after breast conserving surgery for breast cancer among women in England: retrospective study of hospital episode statistics

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether rate of reoperation after breast conserving surgery is associated with patients' characteristics and investigate whether reoperation rates vary among English NHS trusts.

DESIGN

Cohort study using patient level data from hospital episode statistics.

SETTING

English NHS trusts.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult women who had breast conserving surgery between 1 April 2005 and 31 March 2008.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Reoperation rates after primary breast conserving surgery within 3 months, adjusted using logistic regression for tumour type, age, comorbidity, and socioeconomic deprivation. Tumours were grouped by whether a carcinoma in situ component was coded at the time of the primary breast conserving surgery.

RESULTS

55,297 women had primary breast conserving surgery in 156 NHS trusts during the three year period. 11,032 (20.0%, 95% confidence interval 19.6% to 20.3%) women had at least one reoperation. 10,212 (18.5%, 18.2% to 18.8%) had one reoperation only; of these, 5943 (10.7%, 10.5% to 11.0%) had another breast conserving procedure and 4269 (7.7%, 7.5% to 7.9%) had a mastectomy. Of the 45,793 women with isolated invasive disease, 8229 (18.0%) had at least one reoperation. In comparison, 2803 (29.5%) of the 9504 women with carcinoma in situ had at least one reoperation (adjusted odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.8 to 2.0). Substantial differences were found in the adjusted reoperation rates among the NHS trusts (10th and 90th centiles 12.2% and 30.2%).

CONCLUSION

One in five women who had breast conserving surgery in England had a reoperation. Reoperation was nearly twice as likely when the tumour had a carcinoma in situ component coded. Women should be informed of this reoperation risk when deciding on the type of surgical treatment of their breast cancer.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different surveillance mammography regimens after the treatment for primary breast cancer: systematic reviews registry database analyses and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Following primary breast cancer treatment, the early detection of ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR) or ipsilateral secondary cancer in the treated breast and detection of new primary cancers in the contralateral breast is beneficial for survival. Surveillance mammography is used to detect these cancers, but the optimal frequency of surveillance and the length of follow-up are unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To identify feasible management strategies for surveillance and follow-up of women after treatment for primary breast cancer in a UK setting, and to determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of differing regimens.

METHODS

A survey of UK breast surgeons and radiologists to identify current surveillance mammography regimens and inform feasible alternatives; two discrete systematic reviews of evidence published from 1990 to mid 2009 to determine (i) the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of differing surveillance mammography regimens for patient health outcomes and (ii) the test performance of surveillance mammography in the detection of IBTR and metachronous contralateral breast cancer (MCBC); statistical analysis of individual patient data (West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit Breast Cancer Registry and Edinburgh data sets); and economic modelling using the systematic reviews results, existing data sets, and focused searches for specific data analysis to determine the effectiveness and cost-utility of differing surveillance regimens.

RESULTS

The majority of survey respondents initiate surveillance mammography 12 months after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) (87%) or mastectomy (79%). Annual surveillance mammography was most commonly reported for women after BCS or after mastectomy (72% and 53%, respectively). Most (74%) discharge women from surveillance mammography, most frequently 10 years after surgery. The majority (82%) discharge from clinical follow-up, most frequently at 5 years. Combining initiation, frequency and duration of surveillance mammography resulted in 54 differing surveillance regimens for women after BCS and 56 for women following mastectomy. The eight studies included in the clinical effectiveness systematic review suggest surveillance mammography offers a survival benefit compared with a surveillance regimen that does not include surveillance mammography. Nine studies were included in the test performance systematic review. For routine IBTR detection, surveillance mammography sensitivity ranged from 64% to 67% and specificity ranged from 85% to 97%. For magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), sensitivity ranged from 86% to 100% and specificity was 93%. For non-routine IBTR detection, sensitivity and specificity for surveillance mammography ranged from 50% to 83% and from 57% to 75%, respectively, and for MRI from 93% to 100% and from 88% to 96%, respectively. For routine MCBC detection, one study reported sensitivity of 67% and specificity of 50% for both surveillance mammography and MRI, although this was a highly select population. Data set analysis showed that IBTR has an adverse effect on survival. Furthermore, women experiencing a second tumour measuring >20 mm in diameter were at a significantly greater risk of death than those with no recurrence or those whose tumour was <10 mm in diameter. In the base-case analysis, the strategy with the highest net benefit, and most likely to be considered cost-effective, was surveillance mammography alone, provided every 12 months at a societal willingness to pay for a quality-adjusted life-year of either £20,000 or £30,000. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for surveillance mammography alone every 12 months compared with no surveillance was £4727.

LIMITATIONS

Few studies met the review inclusion criteria and none of the studies was a randomised controlled trial. The limited and variable nature of the data available precluded any quantitative analysis. There was no useable evidence contained in the Breast Cancer Registry database to assess the effectiveness of surveillance mammography directly. The results of the economic model should be considered exploratory and interpreted with caution given the paucity of data available to inform the economic model.

CONCLUSIONS

Surveillance is likely to improve survival and patients should gain maximum benefit through optimal use of resources, with those women with a greater likelihood of developing IBTR or MCBC being offered more comprehensive and more frequent surveillance. Further evidence is required to make a robust and informed judgement on the effectiveness of surveillance mammography and follow-up. The utility of national data sets could be improved and there is a need for high-quality, direct head-to-head studies comparing the diagnostic accuracy of tests used in the surveillance population.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Explaining the difference in prognosis between screen-detected and symptomatic breast cancers

BACKGROUND

We analysed 10-year survival data in 19,411 women aged 50-64 years diagnosed with invasive breast cancer in the West Midlands region of the United Kingdom. The aim was to estimate the survival advantage seen in cases that were screen detected compared with those diagnosed symptomatically and attribute this to shifts in prognostic variables or survival differences specific to prognostic categories.

METHODS

We studied tumour size, histological grade and the Nottingham Prognostic Index in very narrow categories and investigated the distribution of these prognostic factors within screen-detected and symptomatic tumours. We also adjusted for lead time bias.

RESULTS

The unadjusted 10-year breast cancer survival in screen-detected cases was 85.5% and in symptomatic cases 62.8%; after adjustment for lead time bias, survival in the screen-detected cases was 79.3%. Within narrow categories of prognostic variables, survival differences were small, indicating that the majority of the survival advantage of screen detection is due to differences in the distributions of size and node status.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggested that a combination of lead time with size and node status in 10 categories explained almost all (97%) of the survival advantage. Only a small proportion remained to be explained by biological differences, manifested as length bias or overdiagnosis.

Cancer survival in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and the UK, 1995-2007 (the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership): an analysis of population-based cancer registry data

BACKGROUND

Cancer survival is a key measure of the effectiveness of health-care systems. Persistent regional and international differences in survival represent many avoidable deaths. Differences in survival have prompted or guided cancer control strategies. This is the first study in a programme to investigate international survival disparities, with the aim of informing health policy to raise standards and reduce inequalities in survival.

METHODS

Data from population-based cancer registries in 12 jurisdictions in six countries were provided for 2·4 million adults diagnosed with primary colorectal, lung, breast (women), or ovarian cancer during 1995-2007, with follow-up to Dec 31, 2007. Data quality control and analyses were done centrally with a common protocol, overseen by external experts. We estimated 1-year and 5-year relative survival, constructing 252 complete life tables to control for background mortality by age, sex, and calendar year. We report age-specific and age-standardised relative survival at 1 and 5 years, and 5-year survival conditional on survival to the first anniversary of diagnosis. We also examined incidence and mortality trends during 1985-2005.

FINDINGS

Relative survival improved during 1995-2007 for all four cancers in all jurisdictions. Survival was persistently higher in Australia, Canada, and Sweden, intermediate in Norway, and lower in Denmark, England, Northern Ireland, and Wales, particularly in the first year after diagnosis and for patients aged 65 years and older. International differences narrowed at all ages for breast cancer, from about 9% to 5% at 1 year and from about 14% to 8% at 5 years, but less or not at all for the other cancers. For colorectal cancer, the international range narrowed only for patients aged 65 years and older, by 2-6% at 1 year and by 2-3% at 5 years.

INTERPRETATION

Up-to-date survival trends show increases but persistent differences between countries. Trends in cancer incidence and mortality are broadly consistent with these trends in survival. Data quality and changes in classification are not likely explanations. The patterns are consistent with later diagnosis or differences in treatment, particularly in Denmark and the UK, and in patients aged 65 years and older.

FUNDING

Department of Health, England; and Cancer Research UK.

Abstract P5-11-07: ER Positive Screen Detected Breast Cancers (SDBC) Do Not Require Chemotherapy

Background: Meta-analysis of symptomatic breast cancer trials advises chemotherapy to women less than 70 years of age at high risk of death (i.e benefit of &gt;1% survival benefit from treatment) but UK screen detected breast cancers (SDBC) in women aged 50 to 65 years have a 97.2% relative survival compared to 77.6% for symptomatic cancers in the ABS at BASO audit.

Methods: To determine which women benefit from chemotherapy, we have analysed 1,607 symptomatic and SDBC in one unit. Results: SDBC had a significantly lower risk of relapse with the five year breast cancer mortality for ER positive breast cancers being low in the Excellent, Good and Moderate Prognostic Group 1 but being significantly higher in the Good Prognostic Group and Moderate Prognostic Group 1 diagnosed symptomatically. Symptomatic cancers in the Good Prognostic Group (GPG) and Moderate Prognostic Group 1 (MPG1) had a hazard ratio of 5.34 (1.61-17.75) and 14.46 (10.4-106.0) respectively for cancer death compared to SDBC.

NPI Index Score and Mortality in SDBC and Symptomatic Cancers treated in Manchester 1990-98 - ER

ER positive cancers detected by screening (but not ER negative) had a 0.6% mortality annually whereas the symptomatic cancers had a 10% annual mortality in the first five years. The UK National ABS/BASO Audit was used to confirm the findings (Table 2).

Data over the last ten years of follow-up from the ABS at BASO audit indicates significant survival improvements in the Moderate Prognostic Group 2 (MPG2) and the Poor Prognostic Group (PPG) for SDBC.

NHSBSP and ABS at BASO Breast Screening National Audit Data for Invasive SDBCs diagnosed between 1990 and 2002

Discussion: Thus, ER positive SDBCs represent a group which have a low risk of relapse and do not require chemotherapy. The improvements in survival of SDBC relate to better treatment of ER negative and HER2 positive breast cancers and have occurred predominantly in the MPG2 and PPG.

Lesion size is a major determinant of the mammographic features of ductal carcinoma in situ: findings from the Sloane project

AIM

To assess the radiological features of calcific ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in a large, multicentre dataset according to grade and size, and to investigate the possibility that DCIS has different mammographic features when small.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The dataset consisted of all Sloane Project DCIS cases where calcification was present mammographically and histological grade and size were available. The radiology data form classifies calcific DCIS as casting/linear, granular/irregular, or punctate. The pathology dataset includes cytonuclear grade and microscopic tumour size. Correlations were sought between the radiological findings and DCIS grade and size. The significance of differences was assessed using the chi-square test and chi-square test for trend.

RESULTS

One thousand, seven hundred and eighty-three cases were included in the study. Of these, 1128, 485, and 170 had high, intermediate, and low-grade DCIS, respectively. Casting calcification was more frequently seen the higher the grade of DCIS, occurring in 58% of high grade, 38% of intermediate grade, and 26% of low-grade cases, respectively (p<0.001). Casting calcification was also increasingly common with increasing lesion size, irrespective of the histological grade (p<0.001). Thus casting calcifications in small (<10mm) high-grade DCIS lesions were seen with a similar frequency (50%) to those in moderate-sized (21-30 mm) intermediate-grade lesions (48%), and to those in large (>30 mm) low-grade lesions (46%).

CONCLUSION

Lesion size has a strong influence on the radiological features of calcific DCIS; small, high-grade lesions often show no casting calcifications, whereas casting calcifications are seen in nearly half of large, low-grade lesions. As small clusters of punctate or granular calcifications may represent high-grade DCIS, an aggressive clinical approach to the diagnosis of such lesions is recommended as the adequate treatment of high-grade DCIS will prevent the occurrence of potentially life-threatening high-grade invasive disease.

Should the Age of Breast Cancer Screening for Ethnic Minorities Be Reduced?

IntroductionThe National Health Service Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP) offers breast screening every three years for all women aged 50 and over in the United Kingdom (UK). Women aged between 50 and 70 are routinely invited. The NHSBSP will extend the age range of women invited for breast screening from ages 47 to 73 in the future. However, the ideal age for screening should take into consideration the relative risk of the population. The UK has a significant population of ethnic minority groups, mainly Asian and Afro-Caribbean, comprising of about 8% of the total population. The ethnic minority groups have remained geographically concentrated in specific regions especially London and West Midlands, where they comprise 30% and 14% of the population respectively. It has been reported that ethnic minorities present with relatively advanced breast cancer at a younger age. These groups could potentially benefit from early screening. We wanted to test this hypothesis by assessing the age and route of presentation of breast cancer across ethnic groups in the West Midlands region.MethodsThe West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU), a population based registry, collects prospective data on breast cancer diagnosed and treated in this region. Data on patients treated for breast cancer from 2001 to 2007 was obtained from the WMCIU. The age and route of presentation (screening or symptomatic) of Asian, Afro-Caribbean and Caucasian patients were analysed and compared.Results.A total of 27,444 female patients were diagnosed during this period. Data regarding ethnicity was available for 18,941 Caucasians, 528 Asians and 274 Afro-Caribbean's. Diagnosis through screening was 37%, 26% and 29% for Asian, Afro-Caribbean and the Caucasian population respectively. In the symptomatic group, 26.5% of Asians and 35% of Afro-Caribbeans presented below the age of 47 years compared to 13% of the Caucasian population. Furthermore, 13.5% of Asians, 16.5%of Afro-Caribbeans and 5.9% of Caucasians presented at or below the age of 40 years.ConclusionA significant percentage of breast cancers diagnosed within ethnic groups will still be missed despite revising the screening age to 47 years. Unless the participation of ethnic groups in screening is targeted, the benefits (detecting disease at an earlier stage and potentially reduced mortality) will be lost.

Citation Information: Cancer Res 2009;69(24 Suppl):Abstract nr 4008.

Adjuvant UK: A UK Prognostic Model for Early Breast Cancer That Includes Mode of Detection

AIM: To develop and validate a prognostication model to predict overall survival for women treated for early breast cancer in the UK based on cancer registry data. Unlike SEER, this dataset includes accurate information on mode of detection as well as systemic therapy.METHOD: Using the Eastern Cancer Registration & Information Centre (ECRIC) dataset, information was collated for 5818 women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer in East Anglia from 1999-2003. All patients underwent surgery, had records of pathological staging (tumour size, grade, lymph node status, ER status), systemic treatment (chemotherapy, hormone therapy, both), mode of detection (screen-detected, symptomatic) and follow up, censored on 31 December 2007. A model was derived from these data using Cox proportional hazards, with ER positive and ER negative tumours modelled separately, and this was subsequently validated in an external dataset of 5468 patients from the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU). Validation was performed by comparing (a) observed and expected mortality (overall & breast cancer specific) at 5 & 8 years and (b) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in both ECRIC & WMCIU datasets.RESULTS:ECRIC datasetDifference in overall observed/expected mortality &lt;1% at 5 years (14.8% vs 14.9%) and 8 years (18.9% vs 18.9%). Area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.81.Difference in breast cancer specific observed/expected mortality &lt;1% at 5 years (10.6% vs 11.0%) and 8 years (12.9% vs 13.5%). AUC was 0.84.WMCIU dataset:Difference in overall observed/expected mortality &lt; 1% at 5 years (15.8% vs 16.5%) and 8 years (17.5% vs 17.8%). AUC was 0.79.Difference in breast cancer specific observed/expected mortality &lt;2% at 5 years (11.0% vs 12.6%) and 8 years (12.2% vs 13.6%). AUC was 0.82.Overall model fit was good across all subgroups although the ER positive model provided better discrimination (AUC 0.82) than ER negative (AUC 0.75). There was no significant difference between the ROC curves generated with ECRIC and WMCIU data (ER positive X2 = 0.17, p=0.68; ER negative X2 =0.00, P=0.95).CONCLUSION: We have developed a prognostication model for early breast cancer based on data from a UK cancer registry that has included mode of detection for the first time. The model is well calibrated, provides a high degree of discrimination and has been validated in a second patient cohort. This model will underpin a new web-based prognostication and treatment benefit tool for early breast cancer based on UK data (Adjuvant UK).

Citation Information: Cancer Res 2009;69(24 Suppl):Abstract nr 4033.

Clinical outcome data for symptomatic breast cancer: the Breast Cancer Clinical Outcome Measures (BCCOM) Project

Background:

Data collection for screen-detected breast cancer in the United Kingdom is fully funded, which has led to improvements in clinical practice. However, data on symptomatic cancer are deficient, and the aim of this project was to monitor the current practice.

Methods:

A data set was designed together with surrogate outcome measures to reflect best practice. Data from cancer registries initially required the consent of clinicians, but in the third year anonymised data were available.

Results:

The quality of data improved, but this varied by region and only a third of the cases were validated by clinicians. Regional variations in mastectomy rates were identified, and one-third of patients who underwent conservative surgery for the treatment invasive breast cancer were not recorded as receiving radiotherapy.

Conclusion:

National data are essential to ensure that all patients receive appropriate treatment for breast cancer, but variations still exist in the United Kingdom and further improvement in data capture is required.

The influence of perturbing the working surface during reaching and grasping in children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy

PURPOSE

To examine unimanual and bimanual reaching and grasping in children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy with particular emphasis on the nature and extent of interlimb coupling when the working surface is perturbed.

METHOD

Nine children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy and 7 control children with no movement difficulties took part in the study. Children were asked to pick up a cube unimamually and bimanually when the surface it was placed on was either sloping away from the child (Experiment 1) or towards the child (Experiment 2). Both 3D kinematic data and video data were gathered and qualitative descriptions of video data were made.

RESULTS

The working surface did indeed influence the nature and extent of interlimb coupling and this varied from participant to participant. Analysis of the displacement data revealed that during the bimanual condition lower trajectories were produced by both the hemiplegic and non hemiplegic sides, especially in Experiment 2. The control group showed little difference between the unimanual and bimanual condition.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence of interlimb coupling is found, these studies support the findings of our previous work that indicates that there are some benefits to performing bimanual movements in children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy.

Adjuvant UK: Validation of a UK prognostic model for early breast cancer

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Background: To develop and validate a prognostication model to predict overall survival for women treated for early breast cancer in the UK based on cancer registry data. The main advantages are that unlike SEER, this dataset includes accurate information on mode of detection as well as systemic therapy. Methods: Using the Eastern Cancer Registration & Information Centre (ECRIC) dataset, information was collated for 5,818 women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer in East Anglia from 1999–2003. All patients underwent surgery, had records of pathological staging (tumour size, grade, lymph node status, ER status) and systemic treatment (chemotherapy, hormone therapy, both), mode of detection (screen-detected, symptomatic) and were followed up to December 2007. A model was derived from these data using Cox proportional hazards and this was subsequently validated in an external dataset of 5,468 patients from the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU). Validation was performed by comparing (a) observed and predicted mortality - overall and by risk group decile - and (b) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in both ECRIC & WMCIU datasets. Results: ECRIC dataset: Observed/predicted deaths were: 2 years (262/267), 5 years (868/867), 8 years (1108/1093). Area under ROC curve was 0.800WMCIU dataset: Observed/predicted deaths were: 2 years (317/298), 5 years (862/919), 8 years (955/999). Area under ROC curve was 0.783. The model and validation worked equally well at all time points (2, 5, 8 years) and in all risk group deciles. In the validation dataset the observed and predicted 8-year OS was within 1% (17.5% versus 18.3%). There was no significant statistical difference between the ROC curves (X2 = 2.35, P=.12) for prediction at 8 years in ECRIC and WMCIU data. Conclusions: We have developed a prognostication model for early breast cancer based on data from a UK cancer registry and validated the model using data from another UK registry. The model was well calibrated and provides a high degree of discrimination. This model will underpin the first web-based prognostication and treatment benefit tool for early breast cancer in the UK (Adjuvant UK).

No significant financial relationships to disclose.

Follow-up for screen-detected ductal carcinoma in situ: results of a survey of UK centres participating in the Sloane project

AIMS

To investigate the variations in follow-up practice for screen-detected ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in the UK.

METHODS

A questionnaire enquiring about follow-up practice and the perceived value of clinical follow-up after surgery for screen-detected DCIS was sent to the 74 UK screening centres participating in the Sloane Project.

RESULTS

Responses were received from 66 hospitals serving 54 screening centres. These demonstrate wide variations in practice. Clinical follow-up duration ranges from 1 year to indefinite, with the frequency of visits from three-monthly to annually. Formal mammographic follow-up duration ranges from none to indefinite. Mammographic frequency ranges from 1 to 2 years. Follow-up varies according to factors such as size and grade of disease and margin status in 23 units and according to whether adjuvant therapy is given in 23. Seven hospitals perform mammography of reconstructed breasts. Thirty-one centres consider clinical follow-up of DCIS to be of value or limited value whereas 28 consider it to be of little or no value.

CONCLUSIONS

There is no consensus with regard to the duration and frequency of follow-up for screen-detected DCIS, the contribution of predictive and treatment factors, the use of mammography of the reconstructed breast or the perceived value of clinical follow-up. Published guidelines show no consensus. Multidisciplinary teams involved in the care of women with screen-detected non-invasive cancer should contribute to audits such as the Sloane Project in order to determine the most effective and efficient ways to treat and follow up these patients.