Unleashing the room temperature boronization: Blooming of Ni-ZIF nanobuds for efficient photo/electro catalysis of water

Water splitting provides an environmental-friendly and sustainable approach for generating hydrogen fuel. The inherent energetic barrier in two-core half reactions such as the Hydrogen Evolution Reaction (HER) and Oxygen Evolution Reaction (OER) leads to undesired increased overpotential and constrained reaction kinetics. These challenges pose significant challenges that demand innovative solutions to overcome. One of the efficient ways to address this issue is tailoring the morphology and crystal structure of metal-organic frameworks (MOF). Nickel Zeolite Imidazolate Framework (Ni-ZIF) is a popular MOF and it can be tailored using facile chemical methods to unleash a remarkable bifunctional electro/photo catalyst. This innovative solution holds the capability to address prevailing obstacles such as inadequate electrical conductivity and limited access to active metal centers due to the influence of organic ligands. Thereby, applying boronization to the Ni-ZIF under different duration, one can induce blooming of nanobuds under room temperature and modify oxygen vacancies in order to achieve higher reaction kinetics in electro/photo catalysis. It can be evidenced by the 24-h boronized Ni-ZIF (BNZ), exhibiting lower overpotentials as electrocatalyst (OER-396 mV & HER-174 mV @ 20 mA/cm2) in 1 M KOH electrolyte and augmented gas evolution rates when employed as a photocatalyst (Hydrogen-14.37 μmol g-1min-1 & Oxygen-7.40 μmol g-1min-1). The 24-h boronization is identified as the optimum stage of crystalline to amorphous transformation which provided crystalline/amorphous boundaries as portrayed by X-Ray diffraction (XRD) and High Resolution-Transmission Electron Microscopy (HR-TEM) analysis. The flower-like transformation of 24-BNZ, characterized by crystalline-amorphous boundaries initiates with partial disruption of Ni-N bonds and formation of Ni-B bonds as evident from X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS). Further, the 24-h BNZ exhibit bifunctional catalytic activities with pre-longed stability. Overall, this work presents a comprehensive study of the electrocatalytic and photocatalytic water splitting properties of the tailored Ni-ZIF material.

[Post-obstructive diuresis, by the internal physician]

Post-Obstructive Diuresis (POD) is a polyuria that occurs following the release of an obstruction from the urinary tract that prevents the flow of urine. POD requires prompt diagnosis to avoid complications. Although its pathophysiology is better understood, there is little scientific evidence for its treatment. Restoration of renal homeostasis requires correction of blood volume and electrolyte disturbances to prevent complications, which can be serious. In this article, we propose a synthesis of knowledge on the subject, as well as a management strategy.

Rising incidence, progression and changing patterns of liver disease in Wales 1999-2019

BACKGROUND

Liver disease incidence and hence demand on hepatology services is increasing.

AIM

To describe trends in incidence and natural history of liver diseases in Wales to inform effective provision of hepatology services.

METHODS

The registry is populated by International Classification of Diseases-10 (ICD-10) code diagnoses for residents derived from mortality data and inpatient/day case activity between 1999-2019. Pseudo-anonymised linkage of: (1) Causative diagnoses; (2) Cirrhosis; (3) Portal hypertension; (4) Decompensation; and (5) Liver cancer diagnoses enabled tracking liver disease progression.

RESULTS

The population of Wales in 2019 was 3.1 million. Between 1999 and 2019 73054 individuals were diagnosed with a hepatic disorder, including 18633 diagnosed with cirrhosis, 10965 with liver decompensation and 2316 with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Over 21 years the incidence of liver diseases increased 3.6 fold, predominantly driven by a 10 fold increase in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD); the leading cause of liver disease from 2014. The incidence of cirrhosis, decompensation, HCC, and all-cause mortality tripled. Liver-related mortality doubled. Alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD), autoimmune liver disease and congestive hepatopathy were associated with the highest rates of decompensation and all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSION

A 10 fold increase in NAFLD incidence is driving a 3.6 fold increase in liver disease in Wales over 21 years. Liver-related morbidity and mortality rose more slowly reflecting the lower progression rate in NAFLD. Incidence of ArLD remained stable but was associated with the highest rates of liver-related and all-cause mortality.

Developing a population data science approach to assess increased risk of COVID-19 associated with attending large sporting events

ObjectivesTo design and test a method to assess whether test events were associated with an increase in risk of confirmed COVID-19, in order to inform policy on the safe re-introduction of spectator events following decreasing incidence of COVID-19 and relaxing of restrictions. ApproachWe designed a cohort study to measure relative risk of confirmed COVID-19 in those attending two large sporting events in South Wales during May-June 2021. First, we linked ticketing information to records on the Welsh Demographic Service (WDS) and identified NHS numbers for attendees. We then linked attendees to routine SARS-CoV-2 test data to calculate incidence rates in people attending each event for a fourteen days period following the event.  We selected a comparison cohort from WDS for each event, individually matched by age band, gender and locality of residence. Risk ratios were then computed for the two events. ResultsWe successfully assigned NHS numbers to 91% and 84% of people attending the two events, respectively. Other identifiers were available for the remainder. Only a small number of attendees (<10) had a record of confirmed COVID-19 following attendance at each event (14 day cumulative incidence: 36 and 26 per 100,000, respectively). Background incidences in Wales over the same periods were 22 and 61 per 100,000, respectively.  There was no evidence of significantly increased risk of COVID-19 at either event (event 1: 3.00 (0.18-47.9), p=0.50, event 2: 0.30 (0.04-2.34), p= 0.23). However, event 1, which didn’t include pre-event testing in their mitigations, had a higher risk ratio (>1) than event 2 (<1), which did include pre-event testing. ConclusionsWe demonstrate the potential for data linkage to inform COVID-19 policy regarding sporting events. At that point in the epidemic, there was no evidence that attending large sporting events increased risk of COVID-19. However, these events took place between epidemic waves when background incidence and testing rate was low.

Developing a population data science approach to assess increased risk of COVID-19 associated with attending large events

Introduction

In summer 2021, as rates of COVID-19 decreased and social restrictions were relaxed, live entertainment and sporting events were resumed. In order to inform policy on the safe re-introduction of spectator events, a number of test events were organised in Wales, ranging in setting, size and audience.

Objectives

To design and test a method to assess whether test events were associated with an increase in risk of confirmed COVID-19, in order to inform policy.

Methods

We designed a cohort study with fixed follow-up time and measured relative risk of confirmed COVID-19 in those attending two large sporting events. First, we linked ticketing information to individual records on the Welsh Demographic Service (WDS), a register of all people living in Wales and registered with a GP, and identified NHS numbers for attendees. Where NHS numbers were not found we used combinations of other identifiers such as email, name, postcode and/or mobile number. We then linked attendees to routine SARS-CoV-2 test data to calculate positivity rates in people attending each event for the period one to fourteen days following the event. We selected a comparison cohort from WDS for each event, individually matched by age band, gender and locality of residence. As many people attended events in family groups we explored the possibility of also matching on household clusters within the comparison group. Risk ratios were then computed for the two events.

Results

We successfully assigned NHS numbers to 91% and 84% of people attending the two events respectively. Other identifiers were available for the remainder. Only a small number of attendees (<10) had a record of confirmed COVID-19 following attendance at each event (14 day cumulative incidence: 36 and 26 per 100,000, respectively). There was no evidence of significantly increased risk of COVID-19 at either event. However, the event that didn't include pre-event testing in their mitigations, had a higher risk ratio (3.0 compared to 0.3).

Conclusions

We demonstrate the potential for using population data science methods to inform policy. We conclude that, at that point in the epidemic, and with the mitigations that were in place, attending large outdoor sporting events did not significantly increase risk of COVID-19. However, these analyses were carried out between epidemic waves when background incidence and testing rate was low, and need to be repeated during periods of greater transmission. Having a mechanism to identify attendees at events is necessary to calculate risk and feasibility and acceptability of data sharing should be considered.

Developing a population data science approach to assess increased risk of COVID-19 associated with attending large events

IntroductionIn summer 2021, as rates of COVID-19 decreased and social restrictions were relaxed, live entertainment and sporting events were resumed. In order to inform policy on the safe re-introduction of spectator events, a number of test events were organised in Wales, ranging in setting, size and audience. ObjectivesTo design and test a method to assess whether test events were associated with an increase in risk of confirmed COVID-19, in order to inform policy. MethodsWe designed a cohort study with fixed follow-up time and measured relative risk of confirmed COVID-19 in those attending two large sporting events. First, we linked ticketing information to individual records on the Welsh Demographic Service (WDS), a register of all people living in Wales and registered with a GP, and identified NHS numbers for attendees. Where NHS numbers were not found we used combinations of other identifiers such as email, name, postcode and/or mobile number. We then linked attendees to routine SARS-CoV-2 test data to calculate positivity rates in people attending each event for the period one to fourteen days following the event. We selected a comparison cohort from WDS for each event, individually matched by age band, gender and locality of residence. As many people attended events in family groups we explored the possibility of also matching on household clusters within the comparison group. Risk ratios were then computed for the two events. ResultsWe successfully assigned NHS numbers to 91% and 84% of people attending the two events respectively. Other identifiers were available for the remainder. Only a small number of attendees (<10) had a record of confirmed COVID-19 following attendance at each event (14 day cumulative incidence: 36 and 26 per 100,000, respectively). There was no evidence of significantly increased risk of COVID-19 at either event. However, the event that didn't include pre-event testing in their mitigations, had a higher risk ratio (3.0 compared to 0.3). ConclusionsWe demonstrate the potential for using population data science methods to inform policy. We conclude that, at that point in the epidemic, and with the mitigations that were in place, attending large outdoor sporting events did not significantly increase risk of COVID-19. However, these analyses were carried out between epidemic waves when background incidence and testing rate was low, and need to be repeated during periods of greater transmission. Having a mechanism to identify attendees at events is necessary to calculate risk and feasibility and acceptability of data sharing should be considered.

The effect of high intensity interval training on patients with heart transplantation: a systematic review

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

BACKGROUND

Exercise rehabilitation after heart transplant is of major importance in order to improve physical capacity and prognosis.High-intensity interval training (HIIT) has repeatedly proven to be a highly efficient form of exercise for improving the physical capacity of both normal subjects and patients with coronary artery diseases (CAD) and heart failure. In contrast to the chronotropic response of a normal heart to exercise, a newly transplanted heart is denervated, which causes higher resting heart rate (HR) and reduced heart response (chronotropic incompetence). The HR response during exercise is mainly controlled by catecholamine’s from the adrenal glands, resulting in a significantly slower increase of the HR at onset of exercise, a reduced peak HR, and a delayed return towards resting values after cessation of exercise.  A study conducted in 2013 concluded  that high-intensity, aerobic training, especially interval-based training, is a favourable type of exercise that yields improvements in both peripheral and central factors.The review was conducted to determine the effect of HIIT on heart transplant patients.I

PURPOSE

Heart transplant patients have benefitted from aerobic exercises, but the protocol is mostly focussed on moderate intensity exercises. Chronotropic incompetence and safety have been two issues while considering high intensity exercises in heart transplant patients.HIIT has been proved to be effective in coronary artery disease and heart failure patients.

METHODOLOGY

Criteria for considering these studies for the review

PRISMA guidelines of systematic review used. Physiotherapy Evidence Database scale used for assessing risk of bias. GRADE System of evaluation used for data extraction and quality assessment. "Mesh" terms used to search the article. Various databases like PubMed, Scopus, Google scholar, Cochrane screened. Inclusion and exclusion criteria stated. Studies done between 2010-2020 taken.Out of all the studies screened, which 3 studies fulfilled the full text eligibility and were included in the systematic review.

RESULTS

The heart transplant patients  demonstrated a  great improvement in VO2 peak, anaerobic threshold, peak expiratory flow, extensor muscle capacity, general health, systolic blood pressure and endothelial function post HIIT. One of the screened studies compared HIIT with moderate intensity exercises in heart transplant patients and found out that patients receiving HIIT demonstrated better improvement that moderate intensity exercises.The studies also emphasised that long term and community based HIIT is effective in improving the overall quality of life of the patients.

CONCLUSION

According to the three studies reviewed in this article, HIIT proved to be effective as exercise intervention on heart transplant patients. Abstract Figure. Forms of HIIT  Abstract Figure. Heart transplant

Digital Approaches to Music-Making for People With Dementia in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Current Practice and Recommendations

Before COVID-19, dementia singing groups and choirs flourished, providing activity, cognitive stimulation, and social support for thousands of people with dementia in the UK. Interactive music provides one of the most effective psychosocial interventions for people with dementia; it can allay agitation and promote wellbeing. Since COVID-19 has halted the delivery of in-person musical activities, it is important for the welfare of people with dementia and their carers to investigate what alternatives to live music making exist, how these alternatives are delivered and how their accessibility can be expanded. This community case study examines recent practice in online music-making in response to COVID-19 restrictions for people with dementia and their supporters, focusing on a UK context. It documents current opportunities for digital music making, and assesses the barriers and facilitators to their delivery and accessibility. Online searches of video streaming sites and social media documented what music activities were available. Expert practitioners and providers collaborated on this study and supplied input about the sessions they had been delivering, the technological challenges and solutions they had found, and the responses of the participants. Recommendations for best practice were developed and refined in consultation with these collaborators. Over 50 examples of online music activities were identified. In addition to the challenges of digital inclusion and accessibility for some older people, delivering live music online has unique challenges due to audio latency and sound quality. It is necessary to adapt the session to the technology's limitations rather than expect to overcome these challenges. The recommendations highlight the importance of accessibility, digital safety and wellbeing of participants. They also suggest ways to optimize the quality of their musical experience. The pandemic has prompted innovative approaches to deliver activities and interventions in a digital format, and people with dementia and their carers have adapted rapidly. While online music is meeting a clear current need for social connection and cognitive stimulation, it also offers some advantages which remain relevant after COVID-19 restrictions are relaxed. The recommendations of this study are intended to be useful to musicians, dementia care practitioners, and researchers during the pandemic and beyond.

Understanding and responding to COVID-19 in Wales: protocol for a privacy-protecting data platform for enhanced epidemiology and evaluation of interventions

INTRODUCTION

The emergence of the novel respiratory SARS-CoV-2 and subsequent COVID-19 pandemic have required rapid assimilation of population-level data to understand and control the spread of infection in the general and vulnerable populations. Rapid analyses are needed to inform policy development and target interventions to at-risk groups to prevent serious health outcomes. We aim to provide an accessible research platform to determine demographic, socioeconomic and clinical risk factors for infection, morbidity and mortality of COVID-19, to measure the impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilisation and long-term health, and to enable the evaluation of natural experiments of policy interventions.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Two privacy-protecting population-level cohorts have been created and derived from multisourced demographic and healthcare data. The C20 cohort consists of 3.2 million people in Wales on the 1 January 2020 with follow-up until 31 May 2020. The complete cohort dataset will be updated monthly with some individual datasets available daily. The C16 cohort consists of 3 million people in Wales on the 1 January 2016 with follow-up to 31 December 2019. C16 is designed as a counterfactual cohort to provide contextual comparative population data on disease, health service utilisation and mortality. Study outcomes will: (a) characterise the epidemiology of COVID-19, (b) assess socioeconomic and demographic influences on infection and outcomes, (c) measure the impact of COVID-19 on short -term and longer-term population outcomes and (d) undertake studies on the transmission and spatial spread of infection.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Secure Anonymised Information Linkage-independent Information Governance Review Panel has approved this study. The study findings will be presented to policy groups, public meetings, national and international conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals.

Impact of an evidence-based intervention on urinary catheter utilization, associated process indicators, and infectious and non-infectious outcomes

BACKGROUND

Multi-centre intervention studies tackling urinary catheterization and its infectious and non-infectious complications are lacking.

AIM

To decrease urinary catheterization and, consequently, catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTIs) and non-infectious complications.

METHODS

Before/after non-randomized multi-centre intervention study in seven hospitals in Switzerland. Intervention bundle consisting of: (1) a concise list of indications for urinary catheterization; (2) daily evaluation of the need for ongoing catheterization; and (3) education on proper insertion and maintenance of urinary catheters. The primary outcome was urinary catheter utilization. Secondary outcomes were CAUTIs, non-infectious complications and process indicators (proportion of indicated catheters and frequency of catheter evaluation).

FINDINGS

In total, 25,880 patients were included in this study [13,171 at baseline (August-October 2016) and 12,709 post intervention (August-October 2017)]. Catheter utilization decreased from 23.7% to 21.0% (P=0.001), and catheter-days per 100 patient-days decreased from 17.4 to 13.5 (P=0.167). CAUTIs remained stable at a low level with 0.02 infections per 100 patient-days (baseline) and 0.02 infections (post intervention) (P=0.98). Measuring infections per 1000 catheter-days, the rate was 1.02 (baseline) and 1.33 (post intervention) (P=0.60). Non-infectious complications decreased significantly, from 0.79 to 0.56 events per 100 patient-days (P<0.001), and from 39.4 to 35.4 events per 1000 catheter-days (P=0.23). Indicated catheters increased from 74.5% to 90.0% (P<0.001). Re-evaluations increased from 168 to 624 per 1000 catheter-days (P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

A straightforward bundle of three evidence-based measures reduced catheter utilization and non-infectious complications, whereas the proportion of indicated urinary catheters and daily evaluations increased. The CAUTI rate remained unchanged, albeit at a very low level.

Exploring the association of the discharge medicines review with patient hospital readmissions through national routine data linkage in Wales: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of the discharge medicines review (DMR) community pharmacy service with hospital readmissions through linking National Health Service data sets.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

All hospitals and 703 community pharmacies across Wales.

PARTICIPANTS

Inpatients meeting the referral criteria for a community pharmacy DMR.

INTERVENTIONS

Information related to the patient's medication and hospital stay is provided to the community pharmacists on discharge from hospital, who undertake a two-part service involving medicines reconciliation and a medicine use review. To investigate the association of this DMR service with hospital readmission, a data linking process was undertaken across six national databases.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

Rate of hospital readmission within 90 days for patients with and without a DMR part 1 started.

SECONDARY OUTCOME

Strength of association of age decile, sex, deprivation decile, diagnostic grouping and DMR type (started or not started) with reduction in readmission within 90 days.

RESULTS

1923 patients were referred for a DMR over a 13-month period (February 2017-April 2018). Provision of DMR was found to be the most significant attributing factor to reducing likelihood of 90-day readmission using χ² testing and classification methods. Cox regression survival analysis demonstrated that those receiving the intervention had a lower hospital readmission rate at 40 days (p<0.000, HR: 0.59739, CI 0.5043 to 0.7076).

CONCLUSIONS

DMR after a hospital discharge is associated with a reduction in risk of hospital readmission within 40 days. Linking data across disparate national data records is feasible but requires a complex processual architecture. There is a significant value for integrated informatics to improve continuity and coherency of care, and also to facilitate service optimisation, evaluation and evidenced-based practice.

Staged implant placement after defect regeneration using biphasic calcium phosphate materials with different surface topographies in a minipig model

OBJECTIVE

To assess the influence of biphasic calcium phosphate materials with different surface topographies on bone formation and osseointegration of titanium implants in standardized alveolar ridge defects.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Standardized alveolar ridge defects (6 × 6 mm) were created in the mandible of 8 minipigs and filled with three biphasic calcium phosphate materials (BCP1-3, 90% tricalcium phosphate/10% hydroxyapatite) with different surface properties (micro- and macroporosities) as well as a bovine-derived natural bone mineral (NBM) as a control. At 12 weeks, implants were placed into the augmented defects. After further 8 weeks of healing, dissected blocks were processed for histological analysis (e.g., mineralized (MT), residual bone graft material (BS), bone-to-implant contact (BIC)).

RESULTS

All four biomaterials showed well-integrated graft particles and new bone formation within the defect area. MT values were comparable in all groups. BS values were highest in the NBM group (21.25 ± 13.52%) and markedly reduced in the different BCP groups, reaching statistical significance at BCP1-treated sites (9.2 ± 3.28%). All test and control groups investigated revealed comparable and statistically not significant different BIC values, ranging from 73.38 ± 20.5% (BCP2) to 84.11 ± 7.84% (BCP1), respectively.

CONCLUSION

All bone graft materials facilitated new bone formation and osseointegration after 12 + 8 weeks of healing.

Effects and costs of implementing predictive risk stratification in primary care: a randomised stepped wedge trial

Aim

We evaluated the introduction of a predictive risk stratification model (PRISM) into primary care. Contemporaneously National Health Service (NHS) Wales introduced Quality and Outcomes Framework payments to general practices to focus care on those at highest risk of emergency admission to hospital. The aim of this study was to evaluate the costs and effects of introducing PRISM into primary care.

Methods

Randomised stepped wedge trial with 32 general practices in one Welsh health board. The intervention comprised: PRISM software; practice-based training; clinical support through two ‘general practitioner (GP) champions’ and technical support. The primary outcome was emergency hospital admissions.

Results

Across 230 099 participants, PRISM implementation increased use of health services: emergency hospital admission rates by 1 % when untransformed (while change in log-transformed rate Δ_L=0.011, 95% CI 0.010 to 0.013); emergency department (ED) attendance rates by untransformed 3 % (while Δ_L=0.030, 95% CI 0.028 to 0.032); outpatient visit rates by untransformed 5 % (while Δ_L=0.055, 95% CI 0.051 to 0.058); the proportion of days with recorded GP activity by untransformed 1 % (while Δ_L=0.011, 95% CI 0.007 to 0.014) and time in hospital by untransformed 3 % (while Δ_L=0.029, 95% CI 0.026 to 0.031). Thus NHS costs per participant increased by £76 (95% CI £46 to £106).

Conclusions

Introduction of PRISM resulted in a statistically significant increase in emergency hospital admissions and use of other NHS services without evidence of benefits to patients or the NHS.

What happened to my patient after I dropped them off at the ED? Linking Welsh ambulance to secondary care and mortality data

IntroductionThe Welsh ambulance service hold very detailed information about emergency calls received, incidents and associated ambulance journeys, but very little about what happens to patients after they have been conveyed to hospital. Linkage of ambulance data to secondary care and mortality data can allow new outcome measures to be developed. Objectives and ApproachA proof of concept was jointly initiated by the Welsh Ambulance Service, Welsh Government and the NHS Wales Informatics in order to explore how ambulance conveyance data could be linked to other routinely collected secondary care and mortality data, with the aim of developing new outcome-based measures for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the ambulance service and the unscheduled care system as a whole. As there were very few patient demographic data items common to both the ambulance and secondary care datasets, the resulting probabilistic linkage relied largely on the use of time and location-based distributions. ResultsThe linkage methodology proved to be highly successful for those patients conveyed by ambulance to an ED, with the various location and time-based fields from the ambulance dataset combining well with similar fields in the ED dataset. Out of all ED attendance records which had "Ambulance" as the stated mode of arrival, an associated ambulance record was found in over 90\% of cases. Additional exact and rules-based deterministic methods were used to link the ED attendances to associated admissions, critical care and mortality records, with new ED, in-hospital and longer term outcome variables developed. Finally, the project team analysed the impact of ambulance response times and ED handover delays on these outcome measures. Conclusion/ImplicationsThe work demonstrated how the linked data could provide managers, commisioners and policy-makers with a more holistic view of the unscheduled care system. Work to-date has focussed mainly on conveyances to ED, however the next stage will be to develop outcome measures relating to those patients treated at the scene or advised by phone.

Lumbosacral osteosarcoma with dural spread, skip lesions and intravascular extension: A case report

Primary osteosarcoma of the spine is indeed rare and only several sporadic cases have been reported. It tends to occur in a slightly older age group than those with appendicular skeleton tumours. We present here an unusual case of aggressive lumbosacral osteosarcoma in a young teenager complicated by extensive dural spread, skip lesions and intravascular extension. Although a histopathological examination is mandatory to establish the diagnosis, this case emphasises the need of imaging to ascertain the full extent of disease spread especially in deciding the type of treatment to be instituted and to evaluate the response to the treatment.

Predictive risk stratification model: a randomised stepped-wedge trial in primary care (PRISMATIC)

Background

With a higher proportion of older people in the UK population, new approaches are needed to reduce emergency hospital admissions, thereby shifting care delivery out of hospital when possible and safe.

Study aim

To evaluate the introduction of predictive risk stratification in primary care.

Objectives

To (1) measure the effects on service usage, particularly emergency admissions to hospital; (2) assess the effects of the Predictive RIsk Stratification Model (PRISM) on quality of life and satisfaction; (3) assess the technical performance of PRISM; (4) estimate the costs of PRISM implementation and its effects; and (5) describe the processes of change associated with PRISM.

Design

Randomised stepped-wedge trial with economic and qualitative components.

Setting

Abertawe Bro Morgannwg University Health Board, south Wales.

Participants

Patients registered with 32 participating general practices.

Intervention

PRISM software, which stratifies patients into four (emergency admission) risk groups; practice-based training; and clinical support.

Main outcome measures

Primary outcome – emergency hospital admissions. Secondary outcomes – emergency department (ED) and outpatient attendances, general practitioner (GP) activity, time in hospital, quality of life, satisfaction and costs.

Data sources

Routine anonymised linked health service use data, self-completed questionnaires and staff focus groups and interviews.

Results

Across 230,099 participants, PRISM implementation led to increased emergency admissions to hospital [ΔL = 0.011, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.010 to 0.013], ED attendances (ΔL = 0.030, 95% CI 0.028 to 0.032), GP event-days (ΔL = 0.011, 95% CI 0.007 to 0.014), outpatient visits (ΔL = 0.055, 95% CI 0.051 to 0.058) and time spent in hospital (ΔL = 0.029, 95% CI 0.026 to 0.031). Quality-of-life scores related to mental health were similar between phases (Δ = –0.720, 95% CI –1.469 to 0.030); physical health scores improved in the intervention phase (Δ = 1.465, 95% CI 0.774 to 2.157); and satisfaction levels were lower (Δ = –0.074, 95% CI – 0.133 to –0.015). PRISM implementation cost £0.12 per patient per year and costs of health-care use per patient were higher in the intervention phase (Δ = £76, 95% CI £46 to £106). There was no evidence of any significant difference in deaths between phases (9.58 per 1000 patients per year in the control phase and 9.25 per 1000 patients per year in the intervention phase). PRISM showed good general technical performance, comparable with existing risk prediction tools (c-statistic of 0.749). Qualitative data showed low use by GPs and practice staff, although they all reported using PRISM to generate lists of patients to target for prioritised care to meet Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) targets.

Limitations

In Wales during the study period, QOF targets were introduced into general practice to encourage targeting care to those at highest risk of emergency admission to hospital. Within this dynamic context, we therefore evaluated the combined effects of PRISM and this contemporaneous policy initiative.

Conclusions

Introduction of PRISM increased emergency episodes, hospitalisation and costs across, and within, risk levels without clear evidence of benefits to patients.

Future research

(1) Evaluation of targeting of different services to different levels of risk; (2) investigation of effects on vulnerable populations and health inequalities; (3) secondary analysis of the Predictive Risk Stratification: A Trial in Chronic Conditions Management data set by health condition type; and (4) acceptability of predictive risk stratification to patients and practitioners.

Trial and study registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN55538212 and PROSPERO CRD42015016874.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services Delivery and Research programme.

Urinary incontinence as a predictor of death after new-onset stroke: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Urinary incontinence (UI) could be an indicator of increased mortality after new-onset stroke. The aim of the present meta-analysis was to characterize this association.

METHODS

A systematic search retrieved all studies exploring the post-stroke period and comparing death among patients suffering from UI with those without UI. Hazard ratios (HRs) were extracted or estimated from the published proportion of deaths. Various meta-analyses pooled unadjusted HRs, HRs adjusted for confounders and HRs stratified by subgroups of strokes (ischaemic or haemorrhagic), using models with random effects. Heterogeneity was explored through stratification of studies and meta-regression of predefined parameters.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis included 24 studies. UI increased the mortality among the general stroke patients in pooled unadjusted (HR, 5.1; 95% CI, 3.9-6.7) and adjusted (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.8-2.7) analyses. This association was also found among ischaemic (HR, 8.5; 95% CI, 4.6-15.7) and haemorrhagic (HR, 3.9; 95% CI, 1.4-11.3) subgroups of strokes. Studies including indwelling catheters, published more than 10 years ago or with the highest quality on the selection criteria of the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment scale were associated with a greater effect of UI on mortality. Funnel plots showed a clear asymmetry for adjusted associations. After correcting for this potential publication bias, the pooled HRs still demonstrated a positive association between UI and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Urinary incontinence indicates high risk of death after a new-onset stroke. Validity of the analyses on adjusted models is limited by an obvious publication bias.

Prevalence of defined ultrasound findings of unknown significance at the second trimester fetal anomaly scan and their association with adverse pregnancy outcomes: the Welsh study of mothers and babies population-based cohort

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this article was to estimate the population prevalence of seven defined ultrasound findings of uncertain significance ('markers') in the second trimester and the associated risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes.

METHOD

A prospective record-linked cohort study of 30 078 pregnant women who had second trimester anomaly scans between July 2008 and March 2011 in Wales was conducted.

RESULTS

The prevalence of markers ranged from 43.7 per 1000 singleton pregnancies for cardiac echogenic foci [95% confidence interval (CI): 38.8, 51.1] to 0.6 for mild-to-moderate ventriculomegaly (95% CI: 0.3, 1.0). Isolated echogenic bowel was associated with an increased risk of congenital anomalies [risk ratio (RR) 4.54, 95% CI: 2.12, 9.73] and preterm birth (RR 2.30, 95% CI: 1.08, 4.90). Isolated pelvicalyceal dilatation was associated with an increased risk of congenital anomalies (RR 3.82, 95% CI: 2.16, 6.77). Multiple markers were associated with an increased risk of congenital anomalies (RR 5.00, 95% CI: 1.35, 18.40) and preterm birth (RR 3.38, 95% CI 1.20, 9.53).

CONCLUSIONS

These data are useful for counselling families and developing clinical guidance and care pathways following the detection of markers in clinical practice, particularly the need for follow-up scans to monitor placental function and growth in pregnancies with isolated echogenic bowel, and further investigation for multiple markers. © 2015 The Authors. Prenatal Diagnosis published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Use of Advanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging Techniques in Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder

Brain parenchymal lesions are frequently observed on conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of patients with neuromyelitis optica (NMO) spectrum disorder, but the specific morphological and temporal patterns distinguishing them unequivocally from lesions caused by other disorders have not been identified. This literature review summarizes the literature on advanced quantitative imaging measures reported for patients with NMO spectrum disorder, including proton MR spectroscopy, diffusion tensor imaging, magnetization transfer imaging, quantitative MR volumetry, and ultrahigh-field strength MRI. It was undertaken to consider the advanced MRI techniques used for patients with NMO by different specialists in the field. Although quantitative measures such as proton MR spectroscopy or magnetization transfer imaging have not reproducibly revealed diffuse brain injury, preliminary data from diffusion-weighted imaging and brain tissue volumetry indicate greater white matter than gray matter degradation. These findings could be confirmed by ultrahigh-field MRI. The use of nonconventional MRI techniques may further our understanding of the pathogenic processes in NMO spectrum disorders and may help us identify the distinct radiographic features corresponding to specific phenotypic manifestations of this disease.

Bevacizumab is safe in acute relapses of neuromyelitis optica

OBJECTIVES

Neuromyelitis optica (NMO) is a relapsing autoimmune disease targeting the spinal cord and optic nerve leading to paralysis and blindness. Current treatment for acute NMO attacks is immunosuppression with high-dose corticosteroids and/or plasmapheresis. Preclinical animal studies suggest that bevacizumab might be beneficial in limiting the extent of inflammation during a NMO relapse by reducing the disruption of the blood-brain barrier.

METHODS

We carried out an open-label phase 1b safety and proof-of-concept trial in 10 participants with NMO immunoglobulin G seropositive NMO, NMO spectrum disease and those at high risk for developing NMO/NMO spectrum disease who presented with an acute attack of transverse myelitis, optic neuritis or brainstem inflammation. In addition to treating with 1 g of daily intravenous methylprednisolone, we infused 10 mg/kg of bevacizumab intravenously on day 1 of treatment. The primary outcome measure was safety and the secondary outcome measure was efficacy.

RESULTS

Of the 10 participants enrolled, five presented with acute transverse myelitis, four with acute optic neuritis and one with a brainstem lesion. Bevacizumab was safe in all 10 participants, with only one serious adverse event within the 90-day follow up that was not attributed to the medication. Three patients recovered to pre-attack neurological function or better, and no patients required escalation to plasmapheresis.

CONCLUSIONS

Bevacizumab is a safe add-on therapy to high-dose corticosteroids for NMO/NMO spectrum disease patients presenting with an acute relapse.

Effect of neighbourhood deprivation and social cohesion on mental health inequality: a multilevel population-based longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

The common mental disorders (CMDs) of anxiety and depression are the most common form of poor mental health in the general population. Evidence from the small number of previous cohort studies on the role of neighbourhood factors in mental health is inconclusive. We tested the hypothesis that high levels of neighbourhood social cohesion modify an adverse association between change in individual mental health and neighbourhood deprivation.

METHOD

We carried out a longitudinal multilevel analysis using data from the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Cohort Study with a 7-year follow-up (n = 4426; age range 18-74 years at baseline). Neighbourhood deprivation and neighbourhood social cohesion were assessed at baseline and change in mental health between follow-up and baseline was assessed using the five-item Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5).

RESULTS

Residence in the most deprived neighbourhoods was negatively associated with change in mental health, after adjusting for baseline individual socio-economic risk factors and transitions in life events. This negative effect was significantly reduced in high social cohesion neighbourhoods. The predicted change in mental health score was calculated for the 10th and 90th centiles of the household low-income distribution. The difference between them was -2.8 in the low social cohesion group and 1.1 in the high cohesion group. The difference between the groups was 3.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2-7.6].

CONCLUSIONS

The public health burden of poor mental health and mental health inequality could potentially be reduced by strengthening social cohesion in deprived neighbourhoods. This offers a mechanism to address the adverse effect of neighbourhood deprivation on population mental health.

The Welsh study of mothers and babies: protocol for a population-based cohort study to investigate the clinical significance of defined ultrasound findings of uncertain significance

BACKGROUND

Improvement in ultrasound imaging has led to the identification of subtle non-structural markers during the 18 - 20 week fetal anomaly scan, such as echogenic bowel, mild cerebral ventriculomegaly, renal pelvicalyceal dilatation, and nuchal thickening. These markers are estimated to occur in between 0.6% and 4.3% of pregnancies. Their clinical significance, for pregnancy outcomes or childhood morbidity, is largely unknown. The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence of seven markers in the general obstetric population and establish a cohort of children for longer terms follow-up to assess the clinical significance of these markers.

METHODS/DESIGN

All women receiving antenatal care within six of seven Welsh Health Boards who had an 18 to 20 week ultrasound scan in Welsh NHS Trusts between July 2008 and March 2011 were eligible for inclusion. Data were collected on seven markers (echogenic bowel, cerebral ventriculomegaly, renal pelvicalyceal dilatation, nuchal thickening, cardiac echogenic foci, choroid plexus cysts, and short femur) at the time of 18 - 20 week fetal anomaly scan. Ultrasound records were linked to routinely collected data on pregnancy outcomes (work completed during 2012 and 2013). Images were stored and reviewed by an expert panel.The prevalence of each marker (reported and validated) will be estimated. A projected sample size of 23,000 will allow the prevalence of each marker to be estimated with the following precision: a marker with 0.50% prevalence to within 0.10%; a marker with 1.00% prevalence to within 0.13%; and a marker with 4.50% prevalence to within 0.27%. The relative risk of major congenital abnormalities, stillbirths, pre-term birth and small for gestational age, given the presence of a validated marker, will be reported.

DISCUSSION

This is a large, prospective study designed to estimate the prevalence of markers in a population-based cohort of pregnant women and to investigate associations with adverse pregnancy outcomes. The study will also establish a cohort of children that can be followed-up to explore associations between specific markers and longer-term health and social outcomes.

[Hospital based internal medicine in 2012]

In an era in which primary and secondary prevention have important implications for public health and health care costs, a series of publications and guidelines give added weight or precision to current medical practice in the fields of hospital based internal medicine. This article presents a selective review of new guidelines and therapeutic options for areas of cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease, gastroenterology and oncology.

A platform for the remote conduct of gene-environment interaction studies

BACKGROUND

Gene-environment interaction studies offer the prospect of robust causal inference through both gene identification and instrumental variable approaches. As such they are a major and much needed development. However, conducting these studies using traditional methods, which require direct participant contact, is resource intensive. The ability to conduct gene-environment interaction studies remotely would reduce costs and increase capacity.

AIM

To develop a platform for the remote conduct of gene-environment interaction studies.

METHODS

A random sample of 15,000 men and women aged 50+ years and living in Cardiff, South Wales, of whom 6,012 were estimated to have internet connectivity, were mailed inviting them to visit a web-site to join a study of successful ageing. Online consent was obtained for questionnaire completion, cognitive testing, re-contact, record linkage and genotyping. Cognitive testing was conducted using the Cardiff Cognitive Battery. Bio-sampling was randomised to blood spot, buccal cell or no request.

RESULTS

A heterogeneous sample of 663 (4.5% of mailed sample and 11% of internet connected sample) men and women (47% female) aged 50-87 years (median=61 yrs) from diverse backgrounds (representing the full range of deprivation scores) was recruited. Bio-samples were donated by 70% of those agreeing to do so. Self report questionnaires and cognitive tests showed comparable distributions to those collected using face-to-face methods. Record linkage was achieved for 99.9% of participants.

CONCLUSION

This study has demonstrated that remote methods are suitable for the conduct of gene-environment interaction studies. Up-scaling these methods provides the opportunity to increase capacity for large-scale gene-environment interaction studies.

Cohort profile: the Caerphilly health and social needs electronic cohort study (E-CATALyST)

The Caerphilly Health and Social Needs study was established to inform and support collaborative multiagency working on reducing inequalities in health and to investigate neighbourhood influences on mental health. Initially, we collated a robust small-area multiagency dataset of contextual health determinants and outcomes from routine sources and sharing of data between the National Health Service and Caerphilly county borough council. These data were widely used in local joint planning to improve health and reduce health inequalities. Secondly, we carried out a baseline population questionnaire survey, collecting data from 10 892 (60.6%) respondents aged 18-74 years on a wide range of socio-economic, lifestyle, health and housing factors and perceptions of the local neighbourhood, including access to services, social cohesion and neighbourhood quality. We carried out wave 2 of the survey after 7 years with responses from 4558 (50.2%) participants to the same range of questions. We developed the study into an electronic cohort, linking all 17 979 sampled participants aged 18-74 years to mortality and hospital admission records with 10-year follow-up and full recording of migration both within and out of the borough. Readers with an interest in collaborative use of the data should contact Professor David Fone, Principal Investigator.

[Hospital based internal medicine: a review of 2011]

Numerous prospective randomised trials recently demonstrated the importance of an aggressive approach towards controlling cardiovascular risk factors. New studies reinforce the plethora of available data and confirm that interventional revascularisation strategies for stable coronary heart disease or cerebral vascular disease offer few benefits as compared to medical treatment, and can even lead to worse outcomes. This selective review describes some recent studies in the areas of cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or screening of lung cancer, and gastroenterology.