Open science and public trust in science: Results from two studies

In two studies, we examined whether open science practices, such as making materials, data, and code of a study openly accessible, positively affect public trust in science. Furthermore, we investigated whether the potential trust-damaging effects of research being funded privately (e.g. by a commercial enterprise) may be buffered by such practices. After preregistering six hypotheses, we conducted a survey study (Study 1; N = 504) and an experimental study (Study 2; N = 588) in two German general population samples. In both studies, we found evidence for the positive effects of open science practices on trust, though it should be noted that in Study 2, results were more inconsistent. We did not however find evidence for the aforementioned buffering effect. We conclude that while open science practices may contribute to increasing trust in science, the importance of making use of open science practices visible should not be underestimated.

Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.

Open science and public trust in science: Results from two studies

In two studies, we examined whether open science practices, such as making materials, data, and code of a study openly accessible, positively affect public trust in science. Furthermore, we investigated whether the potential trust-damaging effects of research being funded privately (e.g. by a commercial enterprise) may be buffered by such practices. After preregistering six hypotheses, we conducted a survey study (Study 1; N = 504) and an experimental study (Study 2; N = 588) in two German general population samples. In both studies, we found evidence for the positive effects of open science practices on trust, though it should be noted that in Study 2, results were more inconsistent. We did not however find evidence for the aforementioned buffering effect. We conclude that while open science practices may contribute to increasing trust in science, the importance of making use of open science practices visible should not be underestimated.

Open science and public trust in science: Results from two studies

In two studies, we examined whether open science practices, such as making materials, data, and code of a study openly accessible, positively affect public trust in science. Furthermore, we investigated whether the potential trust-damaging effects of research being funded privately (e.g. by a commercial enterprise) may be buffered by such practices. After preregistering six hypotheses, we conducted a survey study (Study 1; N = 504) and an experimental study (Study 2; N = 588) in two German general population samples. In both studies, we found evidence for the positive effects of open science practices on trust, though it should be noted that in Study 2, results were more inconsistent. We did not however find evidence for the aforementioned buffering effect. We conclude that while open science practices may contribute to increasing trust in science, the importance of making use of open science practices visible should not be underestimated.

Open science and public trust in science: Results from two studies

In two studies, we examined whether open science practices, such as making materials, data, and code of a study openly accessible, positively affect public trust in science. Furthermore, we investigated whether the potential trust-damaging effects of research being funded privately (e.g. by a commercial enterprise) may be buffered by such practices. After preregistering six hypotheses, we conducted a survey study (Study 1; N = 504) and an experimental study (Study 2; N = 588) in two German general population samples. In both studies, we found evidence for the positive effects of open science practices on trust, though it should be noted that in Study 2, results were more inconsistent. We did not however find evidence for the aforementioned buffering effect. We conclude that while open science practices may contribute to increasing trust in science, the importance of making use of open science practices visible should not be underestimated.

How (not) to mobilize health workers in the fight against vaccine hesitancy: Experimental evidence from Germany's AstraZeneca controversy

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 vaccine hesistancy is a serious policy issue in Germany as vaccinations have stagnated at low levels compared to most other European countries. In this context, we study whether and how health workers can be leveraged to promote the COVID-19 vaccination campaign.

METHODS

We employed an information experiment with health workers in Germany to quantify how access to information related to (i) AstraZeneca's vaccine safety, (ii) misinformation, (iii) individual health risks, and (iv) public health risks can sway health workers' recommendations for any of the following vaccines: AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, Sinopharm, and Sputnik-V. The information experiment was conducted as a randomized controlled trial with four treatment arms and was embedded in an online survey.

RESULTS

Health workers reduce their willingness to recommend four out of six vaccines once they learn about different statements of European and German health authorities with respect to the safety of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Consistent with the discussion on AstraZeneca's safety focusing on possible side effects among younger women, we find that especially female health workers become less likely to recommend the majority of COVID-19 vaccines. Lastly, we show that health workers vaccine recommendations are not affected by misinformation and appeals to individual or public health.

CONCLUSION

In order to mobilize health workers in the fight against vaccine hesitancy, information campaigns need to be tailor-made for the target audience. In particular, health workers react to different types of information than the general public. As with the general public, we provide suggestive evidence that health workers require unambigious messages from drug authorities in order to support vaccination efforts. We believe that a more coordinated and coherent approach of public authorities can reduce the amount of mixed signals that health workers receive and therefore contribute to health workers engagement in the outroll of mass COVID-19 vaccination campaigns.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The trial was registered retrospectively with the repository of the Open Science Framework (OSF) under the number osf.io/qa4n2 .

What can we learn from open questions in surveys? A case study on non-voting reported in the 2013 German longitudinal election study

Open survey questions are often used to evaluate closed questions. However, they can fulfil this function only if there is a strong link between answers to open questions and answers to related closed questions. Using reasons for non-voting reported in the German Longitudinal Election Study 2013, we investigated this link by examining whether the reported reasons for non-voting may be substantive reasons or ex-post legitimations. We tested five theoretically derived hypotheses about respondents who gave, or did not give, a specific reason. Results showed that (a) answers to open questions were indeed related to answers to closed questions and could be used in explanatory turnout models to predict voting behavior, and (b) the relationship between answers to open and closed questions and the predictive power of reasons given in response to the open questions were stronger in the post-election survey (reported behavior) than in the pre-election survey (intended behavior).

Mandatory computer field for blood pressure measurement improves screening

METHODS

We evaluated the effectiveness of a compulsory data field in a computerized medical record (CMR) in improving blood pressure (BP) screening.

RESULTS

The proportion of study patients who had their BP measured increased from 40.6% to 58.5% (P < 0.001) after the intervention. After adjusting for age, gender and number of visits, patients were 73% more likely to have their BP recorded after the introduction of the compulsory field.

The association of resting heart rate with cardiovascular, cancer and all-cause mortality. Eight year follow-up of 3527 male Israeli employees (the CORDIS Study)

BACKGROUND

Resting heart rate has frequently been shown to be a predictor of coronary heart disease mortality. Elevated heart rate could also be a marker for the presence of other risk factors, which have not been taken into consideration in previous studies.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of resting heart rate on the risk of all-cause cardiovascular and cancer mortality, taking into consideration haematological variables.

METHOD

The association between resting heart rate and mortality was assessed applying Cox's proportional hazard models to data obtained in an 8 year follow-up of 3527 Israeli male industrial employees. During this period 135 deaths were recorded, 57 from cardiovascular disease and 45 from cancer. Resting heart rate was assessed at entry; potential confounding demographic, anthropometric and socioeconomic variables, haematological data, serum lipid levels and health-related habits were accounted for.

RESULTS

We found that the relative risk of all-cause mortality increased with increasing resting heart rate, workers with resting heart rate >90 beats. min(-1)had an adjusted relative risk of 2.23 (95% CI 1.4-3.6) compared with those with a heart rate <70 beats. min(-1). A similar result was achieved for cardiovascular disease mortality (adjusted relative risk 2.02, 95% CI 1.1-4.0). Cancer mortality was not associated with resting heart rate.

CONCLUSION

This study found that resting heart rate is associated with all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality after controlling (in various statistical models) for platelet counts, haemoglobin concentration, white blood cell counts, total protein, and other recognized risk factors.

Incremental value of simultaneous assessment of myocardial function and perfusion with technetium-99m sestamibi for prediction of extent of coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVES

This study assessed the incremental value of technetium-99m myocardial single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and simultaneous first-pass radionuclide angiography, when added to treadmill exercise, for prediction of the extent of coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND

Technetium-99m count statistics permit the simultaneous assessment of myocardial perfusion and function. However, whether this characteristic improves prediction of the extent of coronary artery disease remains unknown.

METHODS

We studied 70 consecutive patients who had coronary angiography within 6 months of the scintigraphic study. All patients underwent a symptom-limited treadmill exercise test. Treadmill data were summarized using a previously validated score. Left ventricular ejection fraction and regional wall motion were evaluated from a first-pass radionuclide angiogram acquired at peak treadmill exercise in the anterior view. Perfusion was assessed visually. Extent of angiographic disease was expressed as the presence or absence of multivessel disease (more than two coronary artery territories with > 50% stenosis) and as a score that reflects the location of severe (> 75%) stenosis.

RESULTS

Stepwise addition of scintigraphic data (perfusion first, followed by function) to the treadmill score showed significant incremental value for prediction of the angiographic score at each step; exercise ejection fraction alone was the strongest independent predictor. Discriminant accuracy for detection of multivessel disease was also improved by the addition of perfusion information to the treadmill score and addition of regional wall motion analysis to both of them. In this case, ejection fraction failed to show independent value.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of simultaneously performed sestamibi perfusion SPECT and first-pass radionuclide angiography to the treadmill exercise test significantly improved prediction of the extent of coronary artery disease.

The prognostic importance of two easily obtainable noninvasive markers after intravenous thrombolytic therapy in acute myocardial infarction

The predictability of left ventricular function, short- and long-term prognosis, assessed by means of two easily obtainable noninvasive markers, was prospectively studied in 110 consecutive patients undergoing thrombolytic therapy for acute myocardial infarction. Positive noninvasive markers were defined as follows: a) > 50% reduction in ST segment elevation within 120 min of initiating therapy, and b) early peak of creatine kinase (CK) activity < 12h after the start of thrombolysis. Seventy-five (68%) of the patients had two positive markers and are classified as the responder group. The nonresponder group consisted of 35 patients (32%) who had 0-1 positive markers. Left ventricular function was assessed 6-12 weeks after therapy by equilibrium radionuclide ventriculography. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and survival rates at 1 month and 36 months were significantly higher in the responder group compared to the nonresponder group (54 +/- 12% vs. 43 +/- 11%, P < 0.05; 99% vs. 89%, P < 0.06; and 95% vs. 80%, P < 0.05 respectively). Thus, the combined analysis of two easily obtainable noninvasive markers can predict post-treatment preservation of left ventricular function and survival up to 36 months in patients with acute myocardial infarction undergoing thrombolytic therapy.

The St. Jude valve. Thrombolysis as the first line of therapy for cardiac valve thrombosis

BACKGROUND

Thrombolytic therapy is a promising alternative to valve replacement in the management of prosthetic valve thrombosis. We sought to determine the short- and long-term results of treating thrombosed St. Jude heart valves with thrombolytic therapy as the primary treatment modality.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Between March 1978 and December 1991, 988 patients underwent implantation of St. Jude prosthetic valves at our medical center, and all patients with thrombosed valves were identified prospectively. During this period, 17 patients (13 women; mean age, 66.8 +/- 19.0 years) developed prosthetic valve thrombosis (11 aortic, six mitral). In six patients, Coumadin was stopped in preparation for elective surgery. The clinical presentation was congestive heart failure in 13, syncope and fatigue in two, and a cerebrovascular accident in one; one patient was asymptomatic. The average duration of symptoms was 11.7 +/- 12.0 days (range, 1-45 days). Anticoagulation was subtherapeutic in all but one patient at the time of presentation. Cinefluoroscopy was the primary method used for diagnosis and was also used to follow the response to therapy. Twelve patients were treated medically (10 with thrombolytic therapy and two with heparin), three were treated surgically, and two were diagnosed at autopsy. Of the 12 medically treated patients, 10 had marked improvement in leaflet movement and symptoms within 12 hours. Thus, 10 of 12 patients (83%) had a satisfactory response to medical therapy alone. No medically treated patient died or had a major complication resulting in permanent damage. However, four of the 12 medically treated patients had minor complications, including a transient episode of facial weakness in one patient, hematomas in two, and epistaxis in one. Late rethrombosis recurred in two patients in the medically treated group and was successfully retreated with thrombolytic therapy. At 3 months, all patients were alive and well.

CONCLUSIONS

Thrombolytic therapy can be used as the first line of therapy for thrombosed St. Jude valves with a low risk of permanent side effects and excellent chances of success. In most cases, surgery can be reserved for patients who do not respond to thrombolytic therapy.

Short- and long-term comparative study of anistreplase versus streptokinase in acute myocardial infarction

Streptokinase is well established as an effective thrombolytic. Anistreplase, a new thrombolytic drug, is a complex of streptokinase and acylated human plasminogen that can be administered by intravenous bolus and activates plasminogen at the clot site. Although both streptokinase and anistreplase are effected in treating myocardial infarction (MI), they have different pharmacologic properties. This study was designed to identify short- and long-term differences in their clinical effectiveness, safety in use, and survival rates in patients with acute MI. One hundred ten successive patients under seventy years of age admitted within three hours after onset of sustained chest pain suggestive of acute MI were randomized to receive either 30 units of anistreplase intravenously over five minutes or intravenous injection of 750,000 units of streptokinase over thirty to sixty minutes. Reperfusion was achieved in 34 of the 52 (65%) patients treated with anistreplase and in 41 of the 58 (71%) patients treated with streptokinase (p = NS). The two drugs were equally effective in preserving left ventricular ejection fraction, which was found to be significantly better in patients with anterior wall MI who had achieved reperfusion than it was in those who did not (p less than 0.02). One-month, twelve-month, and thirty-six-month survival rates were high (96% to 88%) with no significant difference between the two treatment groups. The authors conclude that the two drugs are equally effective thrombolytic agents but that anistreplase has the advantage that it can be administered as a bolus injection.

Improved left ventricular function in myocardial infarction following intravenous thrombolytic therapy with acylated plasminogen activator

Forty-six patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI) were treated within three hours of the onset of chest pain with an intravenous bolus (IV) of 30 units of anisolated plasminogen activator streptokinase complex (APSAC). Reperfusion was detected in 31 patients (67%) by clinical, electrocardiographic, and enzymatic criteria. The mean time elapsed between the onset of the chest pain to thrombolytic therapy was 114 +/- 53 minutes. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was significantly better in patients with anterior and inferior myocardial infarction who had successful reperfusion, as compared with those who did not (48.8 +/- 13.0 vs 35.3 +/- 10.9, p less than 0.05 and 59.7 +/- 12.6 vs 47.9 +/- 15.3, p less than 0.05, respectively). The rate of reocclusion within three weeks was 22%. The overall one-year mortality was 4%. There were no serious adverse reactions following the thrombolytic treatment. Thus bolus IV injection of 30 units of APSAC is both safe and effective in preserving left ventricular function when given early in the course of acute myocardial infarction.