Gastrointestinal bleeding in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation: prespecified All Nippon Atrial Fibrillation in the Elderly (ANAFIE) Registry subgroup analysis

Gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding control is critical in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receiving oral anticoagulants (OAC). This subgroup analysis aimed to clarify the actual state and significance of GI bleeding in elderly non-valvular AF (NVAF) patients. We evaluated the incidence and risk factors of GI bleeding during the 2-year follow-up and examined the GI bleeding impact on mortality. Of the 32,275 patients in the ANAFIE Registry, 1139 patients (3.5%) experienced GI bleeding (incidence rate, 1.92 events per 100 person-years; mean follow-up, 1.88 years); 339 upper and 760 lower GI bleeding events occurred. GI bleeding risk factors included age ≥ 85 years, body mass index ≥ 25.0 kg/m2, prior major bleeding, hyperuricaemia, heart failure, P-glycoprotein inhibitor use, GI disease, and polypharmacy (≥ 5 drugs). No significant differences in GI bleeding risk were found between direct OAC (DOAC) vs warfarin users (adjusted hazard ratios [95% confidence interval], 1.01 [0.88-1.15]). The 1-year post-GI bleeding mortality rate was numerically higher in patients with upper (19.6%) than lower GI bleeding (8.9%). In elderly Japanese NVAF patients, this large-scale study found no significant difference in GI bleeding risk between DOAC vs. warfarin users or 1-year mortality after upper or lower GI bleeding.

Characteristics and outcomes in elderly patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and high bleeding risk: subanalysis of the J-RHYTHM Registry

Recently, a once-daily dose of edoxaban (15-mg) has been approved for stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients aged ≥ 80 years, in whom standard oral anticoagulants are not recommended because of high bleeding risk (HBR), based on the ELDERCARE-AF trial. However, information regarding the characteristics and clinical outcomes among such patients is limited. Thus, this study aimed to clarify the characteristics and event rates in elderly patients with NVAF and HBR defined by the ELDERCARE-AF criteria. Of the 7406 NVAF outpatients included in the J-RHYTHM Registry, 60 patients with creatinine clearance (CrCl) < 15 mL/min were excluded. The remaining 7346 patients (age, 69.7 ± 9.9 years; men, 70.9%; warfarin use, 78.7%) were divided into three groups: Group 1, aged < 80 years (n = 6165); Group 2, aged ≥ 80 years without HBR (n = 584); and Group 3, aged ≥ 80 years with HBR (at least one of the followings; CrCl, 15-30 mL/min, history of bleeding, body weight ≤ 45 kg, and antiplatelet use) (n = 597, eligible for 15-mg edoxaban). Patients in Group 3 had a higher prevalence of comorbidities, and therefore, both higher thromboembolic and bleeding risk scores than in the other groups. During the 2-year follow-up period, the incidence rates (per 100 person-years) of thromboembolism in Groups 1, 2, and 3 were 0.7, 1.5, and 2.1 (P < 0.001), major hemorrhage, 0.8, 1.2, and 2.0 (P < 0.001), and all-cause death, 0.8, 2.6, and 4.6 (P < 0.001), respectively. Adjusted hazard ratios of Group 3 were 1.64 (95% confidence interval 0.89-3.04, P = 0.116) for thromboembolism, 1.53 (0.85-2.72, P = 0.154) for major hemorrhage, and 1.84 (1.19-2.85, P = 0.006) for all-cause death compared with Group 1. The NVAF Patients aged ≥ 80 years with HBR defined by the ELDERCARE-AF criteria were certainly at a higher adverse event risk, especially for all-cause death. Clinical trial registration: The J-RHYTHM Registry is registered in the University Hospital Medicine Information Network (UMIN) Clinical Trials Registry (unique identifier: UMIN000001569) http://www.umin.ac.jp/ctr/ .

Clinical outcomes and anticoagulation therapy in elderly non-valvular atrial fibrillation and heart failure patients

AIMS

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) often coexist. Older age is strongly associated with stroke, HF, and mortality. The association between coexistence of HF and a risk of clinical outcomes and the effectiveness of anticoagulation therapy including direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in elderly patients with AF and HF have not been investigated. We aimed to evaluate 2 years of outcomes and to elucidate the efficacy of DOACs or warfarin in elderly AF patients in the All Nippon AF In the Elderly (ANAFIE) Registry with and without a history of HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The ANAFIE Registry is a multicentre, prospective observational study following elderly non-valvular AF patients aged ≥75 years for 2 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated based on the presence or absence of an HF diagnosis and DOAC or warfarin use at enrolment. Among 32 275 eligible patients, 12 116 (37.5%) had been diagnosed with HF. Patients with HF had significantly higher rates of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death (HR 1.94, P < 0.001), cardiovascular events (HR 1.59, P < 0.001), cardiovascular death (HR 1.49, P < 0.001), all-cause death (HR 1.32, P < 0.001), and net clinical outcome including stroke/systemic embolism, major bleeding, and all-cause death (HR 1.23, P < 0.001), compared with those without HF; however, HRs for stroke/systemic embolism (HR 0.96, P = 0.56) and major bleeding (HR 1.14, P = 0.13) were similar. DOAC use was associated with a low risk of stroke/systemic embolism (HR 0.86, P = 0.19 in HF; HR 0.79, P = 0.016 in non-HF; P for interaction = 0.56), major bleeding (HR 0.71, P = 0.008 in HF; HR 0.75, P = 0.016 in non-HF; P for interaction = 0.74), HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death (HR 0.81, P < 0.001 in HF; HR 0.78, P < 0.001 in non-HF; P for interaction = 0.26), cardiovascular events (HR 0.83, P < 0.001 in HF; HR 0.82, P = 0.001 in non-HF; P for interaction = 0.65), cardiovascular death (HR 0.84, P = 0.12 in HF; HR 0.75, P = 0.035 in non-HF; P for interaction = 0.18), all-cause death (HR 0.89, P = 0.082 in HF; HR 0.80, P = 0.001 in non-HF; P for interaction = 0.091), and net clinical outcome (HR 0.88, P = 0.019 in HF; HR 0.81, P < 0.001 in non-HF; P for interaction = 0.21) compared with warfarin, irrespective of the presence or absence of HF. Analysis using the propensity score matching method showed similar associations.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-valvular AF patients aged ≥75 years with a history of HF had higher risks of cardiovascular events and mortality. DOACs were favourable to warfarin regardless of the coexistence of HF. These results might encourage the use of DOACs in elderly patients with non-valvular AF with or without HF.

Coronary events in elderly patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: a prespecified sub-analysis of the ANAFIE registry

Real-world data on coronary events (CE) in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are lacking in the direct oral anticoagulant era. This prespecified sub-analysis of the ANAFIE Registry, a prospective observational study in > 30,000 Japanese patients aged ≥ 75 years with non-valvular AF (NVAF), investigated CE incidence and risk factors. The incidence and risk factors for new-onset CE (a composite of myocardial infarction [MI] and cardiac intervention for coronary heart diseases other than MI), MI, and cardiac intervention for coronary heart diseases other than MI during the 2-year follow-up were assessed. Bleeding events in CE patients were also examined. Among 32,275 patients, the incidence rate per 100 patient-years was 0.48 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42-0.53) for CE during the 2-year follow-up, 0.20 (0.16-0.23) for MI, and 0.29 (0.25-0.33) for cardiac intervention for coronary heart diseases other than MI; that of stroke/systemic embolism was 1.62 (1.52-1.73). Patients with CE (n = 287) likely had lower creatinine clearance (CrCL) and higher CHADS2 and HAS-BLED scores than patients without CE (n = 31,988). Significant risk factors associated with new-onset CE were male sex, systolic blood pressure of ≥ 130 mmHg, diabetes mellitus (glycated hemoglobin ≥ 6.0%), CE history, antiplatelet agent use, and CrCL < 50 mL/min. Major bleeding incidence was significantly higher in patients with new-onset CE vs without CE (odds ratio [95% CI], 3.35 [2.06-5.43]). In elderly patients with NVAF, CE incidence was lower than stroke/systemic embolism incidence. New-onset CE (vs no CE) was associated with a higher incidence of major bleeding.Trial registration: UMIN000024006.

Orthodromic AVRT With 2 Different Wide QRS Complexes Caused by Bilateral Bystander Nodoventricular Pathways

We present a case of orthodromic atrioventricular re-entrant tachycardia exhibiting both right and left bundle branch block pattern wide QRS morphologies caused by bilateral bystander nodoventricular (NV) accessory pathways. These wide QRS morphologies came from pre-excitation accompanied by delta waves. In the context of NV accessory pathways, left-sided manifest NV accessory pathways are rare.

Anticoagulant therapy and home blood pressure-associated risk for stroke/bleeding events in elderly patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: the sub-cohort study of ANAFIE registry

The benefits of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) and warfarin in elderly Japanese patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) and high home systolic blood pressure (H-SBP) are unclear. This sub-cohort study of the ANAFIE Registry estimated the incidence of clinical outcomes in patients receiving anticoagulant therapy (warfarin and DOACs) stratified by H-SBP levels (<125 mmHg, ≥125-<135 mmHg, ≥135-<145 mmHg and ≥145 mmHg). Of the overall ANAFIE population, 4933 patients who underwent home blood pressure (H-BP) measurements were analyzed; 93% received OACs (DOACs: 3494, 70.8%; warfarin: 1092, 22.1%). In the warfarin group, at <125 mmHg and ≥145 mmHg, the respective incidence rates (per 100 person-years) were 1.91 and 5.89 for net cardiovascular outcome (a composite of stroke/systemic embolic events (SEE) and major bleeding), 1.31 and 3.39 for stroke/SEE, 0.59 and 3.91 for major bleeding, 0.59 and 3.43 for intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), and 4.01 and 6.24 for all-cause death. Corresponding incidence rates in the DOACs group were 1.64 and 2.65, 1.00 and 1.88, 0.78 and 1.69, 0.55 and 1.31, and 3.43 and 3.51. In warfarin-treated patients, the incidence rates of net cardiovascular outcome, stroke/SEE, major bleeding, and ICH were significantly increased at H-SBP ≥ 145 mmHg versus <125 mmHg. In the DOAC group, although there was no significant difference between H-SBP < 125 mmHg and ≥145 mmHg, the incidence rates of these events tended to increase at ≥145 mmHg. These results suggest that strict BP control guided by H-BP is required in elderly NVAF patients receiving anticoagulant therapy.

Relationship Between Direct Oral Anticoagulant Doses and Clinical Outcomes in Elderly Patients With Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation - ANAFIE Registry Sub-Analysis

BACKGROUND

This sub-analysis of the ANAFIE Registry, a prospective, observational study of >30,000 Japanese non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients aged ≥75 years, assessed the prevalence of direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) under-dose prevalence, identified the factors of under-dose prescriptions, and examined the relationship between DOAC dose and clinical outcomes.Methods and Results: Patients, divided into 5 groups by DOAC dose (standard, over-, reduced, under-, and off-label), were analyzed for background factors, cumulative incidences, and clinical outcome risk. Endpoints were stroke/systemic embolic events (SEE), major bleeding, and all-cause death during the 2-year follow-up. Of 18,497 patients taking DOACs, 20.7%, 3.8%, 51.6%, 19.6%, and 4.3%, were prescribed standard, over-, reduced, under-, and off-label doses. Factors associated with under-dose use were female sex, age ≥85 years, reduced creatinine clearance, history of major bleeding, polypharmacy, antiplatelet agents, heart failure, dementia, and no history of catheter ablation or cerebrovascular disease. After confounder adjustment, under-dose vs. standard dose was not associated with the incidence of stroke/SEE or major bleeding but was associated with a higher mortality rate. Patients receiving an off-label dose showed similar tendencies to those receiving an under-dose; that is, they showed the highest mortality rates for stroke/SEE, major bleeding, and all-cause death.

CONCLUSIONS

Inappropriate low DOAC doses (under- or off-label dose) were not associated with stroke/SEE or major bleeding but were associated with all-cause death.

Effectiveness and safety of reduced-dose rivaroxaban for elderly patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: A subanalysis of the EXPAND study

BACKGROUND

Establishing the appropriate rivaroxaban dose in older patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is important because of the high risk of adverse events. In this EXPAND study subanalysis, we examined the safety and efficacy of standard-dose (15 mg/day) and non-recommended reduced-dose (10 mg/day) rivaroxaban in patients aged ≥65 years with NVAF and preserved renal function.

METHODS

The entire analysis population (ALL cohort [n = 3982]; ≥65 years) was divided into early elderly (ELD) (65-74 years [n = 1444]) and late ELD (≥75 years [n = 2386]) sub-cohorts. Each sub-cohort was divided into reduced-dose and standard-dose groups. Kaplan-Meier survival curves with adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to assess efficacy (thromboembolic events) and safety (hemorrhagic events) outcomes.

RESULTS

The aHR for major bleeding did not differ between the dosages in any of the cohorts (aHRs: 0.86-0.93). There were no significant differences in the occurrence of stroke + systemic embolism (SE) or stroke + SE + myocardial infarction (MI) + cardiovascular (CV) death among the cohorts. The aHR for MI/unstable angina + interventional/CV surgery + CV death was higher with 10-mg/day rivaroxaban than 15-mg/day rivaroxaban in the ALL cohort (aHR: 1.56 [95% CI 1.02-2.37], p = 0.039) and the late ELD sub-cohort (aHR: 1.86 [95% CI 1.01-3.42], p = 0.045).

CONCLUSIONS

Reduced-dose rivaroxaban may increase the risk of coronary artery events. The use of rivaroxaban 15 mg/day in patients with NVAF aged ≥75 years with preserved renal function was supported.

Echocardiographic Parameters of Left Atrial Structure and Function and Clinical Outcomes at 2 Years in Elderly Patients With Atrial Fibrillation - The ANAFIE Echocardiographic Substudy

BACKGROUND

This prospective ANAFIE Registry substudy investigated the relationship between the echocardiographic parameters of left atrial (LA) structure and function and clinical outcomes at 2 years among atrial fibrillation (AF) patients aged ≥75 years.Methods and Results: Outcomes of 1,474 elderly non-valvular AF (NVAF) patients who underwent transthoracic echocardiography at baseline were analyzed by categories of maximum LA volume index (max. LAVi) and LA emptying fraction (LAEF) total. Baseline mean±standard deviation LAEF total and max. LAVi were 28.2±14.9% and 54.2±25.9 mL/m2, respectively. Proportions of oral anticoagulant (OAC), direct OAC, and warfarin use were 92.7%, 68.7%, and 24.0%, respectively. Patients with LAEF total ≤45.0% (n=1,213) vs. >45.0% (n=224) were at higher risk of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.19, P=0.021) and heart failure (HF) hospitalization (HR: 2.25, P=0.045). Risk of all-cause death was higher with max. LAVi >48.0 mL/m2(n=656) vs. ≤48.0 mL/m2(n=621) (HR: 1.69, P=0.048). Subgroups with abnormal LA function and structure had increased incidence of cardiac/cardiovascular events and HF hospitalization. No significant interaction was observed between echocardiographic parameters and OAC type.

CONCLUSIONS

Elderly Japanese patients with NVAF and LAEF total ≤45.0% were at higher risk of cardiovascular events and HF hospitalization, and those with max. LAVi >48.0 mL/m2were at higher risk of all-cause death.

Comprehension of Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation and Anticoagulant Adherence in Elderly Patients in a Subcohort Study of the All Nippon Atrial Fibrillation in the Elderly Registry

In this subcohort study of the ANAFIE (All Nippon Atrial Fibrillation In the Elderly) Registry enrolling >30,000 Japanese elderly (aged ≥75 years) patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF), we assessed the association between patient comprehension of NVAF and adherence to anticoagulant therapy with clinical outcomes. Data from 1,968 patients evaluated for NVAF comprehension by a questionnaire consisting of 4 key questions, and 2,362 patients who completed the Morisky Medication Adherence Scale-8 questionnaire were analyzed. Overall, NVAF comprehension was low (81.9% had <3 points), and compared with high comprehension (score ≥3), low comprehension (0 points: 42.1%) was associated with poor prognosis, nonsignificantly higher risk of stroke or systemic embolic event (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.60 [95% confidence interval 0.97 to 6.94, p = 0.057]), all-cause death (aHR 1.71 [0.96 to 3.04, p = 0.069]), and significantly higher risk of net clinical outcome (composite of stroke/systemic embolic events, major bleeding, and all-cause death) (aHR 1.63 [1.04 to 2.54, p = 0.032]). Adherence to anticoagulant therapy assessed by Morisky Medication Adherence Scale-8 was high (64.9% had high adherence; 29.2%, had medium adherence), but compared with high adherence (score 8), low adherence (score <6: 5.9%) was associated with poor prognosis, significantly higher risk of ischemic stroke (aHR 2.95 [1.08 to 8.04, p = 0.035]), all-cause death (aHR 1.93 [1.16 to 3.21, p = 0.011]), and net clinical outcome (aHR 1.75 [1.12 to 2.75, p = 0.015]). Overall, NVAF comprehension and adherence showed a weak correlation to anticoagulant therapy at baseline (correlation coefficient 0.049). In conclusion, low NVAF comprehension and low anticoagulant adherence were associated with poor clinical outcomes in elderly patients with NVAF.

Risk of both intracranial hemorrhage and ischemic stroke in elderly individuals with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation taking direct oral anticoagulants compared with warfarin: Analysis of the ANAFIE registry

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Elderly patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) might have a higher risk of intracerebral hemorrhage. To investigate this, we compared the incidence of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) and its subtypes, as well as ischemic stroke, in patients taking direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) compared with warfarin in a real-world setting. We also determined the baseline characteristics associated with both ICH and ischemic stroke.

METHODS

Patients aged ⩾ 75 years with documented NVAF enrolled in the prospective, multicenter, observational All Nippon Atrial Fibrillation in the Elderly Registry between October 2016 and January 2018 were evaluated. The co-primary endpoints were the incidence of ischemic stroke and ICH. Secondary endpoints included subtypes of ICH.

RESULTS

Of 32,275 patients (13,793 women; median age, 81.0 years) analyzed, 21,585 (66.9%) were taking DOACs and 8233 (25.5%) were taking warfarin. During the median 1.88-year follow-up, 743 patients (1.24/100 person-years) developed ischemic stroke and 453 (0.75/100 person-years) developed ICH (intracerebral hemorrhage, 189; subarachnoid hemorrhage, 72; subdural/epidural hemorrhage, 190; unknown subtype, 2). The incidence of ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.97), ICH (aHR 0.68, 95% CI 0.55-0.83), and subdural/epidural hemorrhage (aHR 0.53, 95% CI 0.39-0.72) was lower in DOAC users versus warfarin users. The incidence of fatal ICH and fatal subarachnoid hemorrhage was also lower in DOAC users versus warfarin users. Several baseline characteristics other than anticoagulants were also associated with the incidence of the endpoints. Of these, history of cerebrovascular disease (aHR 2.39, 95% CI 2.05-2.78), persistent NVAF, (aHR 1.90, 95% CI 1.53-2.36), and long-standing persistent/permanent NVAF (aHR 1.92, 95% CI 1.60-2.30) was strongly associated with ischemic stroke; severe hepatic disease (aHR 2.67, 95% CI 1.46-4.88) was strongly associated with overall ICH; and history of fall within 1 year was strongly associated with both overall ICH (aHR 2.29, 95% CI 1.76-2.97) and subdural/epidural hemorrhage (aHR 2.90, 95% CI 1.99-4.23).

CONCLUSION

Patients aged ⩾ 75 years with NVAF taking DOACs had lower risks of ischemic stroke, ICH, and subdural/epidural hemorrhage than those taking warfarin. Fall was strongly associated with the risks of intracranial and subdural/epidural hemorrhage.

DATA ACCESS STATEMENT

The individual de-identified participant data and study protocol will be shared for up to 36 months after the publication of the article. Access criteria for data sharing (including requests) will be decided on by a committee led by Daiichi Sankyo. To gain access, those requesting data access will need to sign a data access agreement. Requests should be directed to yamt-tky@umin.ac.jp.

Paradigm Shift for Catheter Ablation of Atypical Atrioventricular Nodal Re-Entrant Tachycardia: 3-Dimensional Mapping-Based Ablation

BACKGROUND

In current practice, the ablation target of atypical atrioventricular nodal re-entrant tachycardia (AVNRT) is the earliest atrial activation site in the coronary sinus (CS) or conventional slow pathway region.

OBJECTIVES

The purposes of this study were to map the site of earliest retrograde atrial activation using electroanatomic three-dimensional mapping during atypical AVNRT and to evaluate successful ablation sites.

METHODS

A total of 42 patients with a total of 49 AVNRTs (slow/fast: 30; fast/slow: 15; slow/slow: 4) underwent electrophysiological study and ablation. Among them there were 14 patients (10 women; 60 ± 19 years of age) in whom 19 atypical AVNRT (fast/slow: 15; slow/slow: 4) were induced.

RESULTS

The intracardiac electrocardiograms or three-dimensional mapping of the exit site during tachycardia revealed that 7 patients had exit sites solely inside the CS (left inferior extension [LIE]), 3 solely in the right postero-septal tricuspid annulus (TA; right inferior extension [RIE]), and 4 had both LIE and RIE exits. The distance from the CS ostium to LIE exits was 14 ± 6 mm. RIE exits were located on the TA posterior to the CS ostium (between 5 and 6 o'clock in the left anterior oblique projection). Ablation targeting these exits or conventional slow pathway succeeded in long-term elimination of AVNRT in 13 of the 14 patients (93%). There were no complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Catheter ablation targeting the exit sites of LIE or RIE mapped at the CS or TA holds promise as an effective and safe alternative approach to the current targets of ablation for atypical AVNRT cases.

Coagulation Biomarkers and Clinical Outcomes in Elderly Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation: ANAFIE Subcohort Study

Background

Little is known about the relationship between coagulation biomarkers and clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) treated with anticoagulants, especially direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) and warfarin.

Objectives

This subcohort study evaluated the association between coagulation biomarkers and clinical outcomes in elderly Japanese patients with nonvalvular AF using the ANAFIE (All Nippon AF In the Elderly) Registry.

Methods

Patients with a definitive diagnosis of nonvalvular AF and aged ≥75 years at enrollment were included. At enrollment, biomarker levels for D-dimer, thrombin-antithrombin complex (TAT), prothrombin fragment 1+2 (F1+2), and soluble fibrin monomer complex (SFMC), along with data on anticoagulant use, were recorded.

Results

Of the 3,194 patients, 95.1% were using oral anticoagulants (OACs) (71.7% DOACs, 23.4% warfarin). D-dimer, TAT, and F1+2 levels, as well as the proportion of patients with a positive SFMC, were lower among those receiving OACs compared with those not receiving OACs. In the DOAC group, higher levels of D-dimer (≥1.0 μg/mL) and TAT (>3 ng/mL) were significantly associated with increased incidences of cardiovascular (CV) events (stroke, myocardial infarction, cardiac intervention, heart failure, and CV death), all-cause death, and CV death. In the warfarin group, higher levels of D-dimer were significantly associated with increased rates of all-cause death, higher levels of TAT with increased major bleeding, and positive SFMC with increased major bleeding and CV events.

Conclusions

Higher levels of coagulation biomarkers were associated with a higher risk of worse clinical outcomes, and the relationships between the coagulation biomarkers and outcomes differed between the DOAC and warfarin groups. (Prospective Observational Study in Late-Stage Elderly Patients with Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation All Nippon AF In Elderly Registry-ANAFIE Registry; UMIN000024006).

Impact of glycated hemoglobin on 2-year clinical outcomes in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation: sub-analysis of ANAFIE Registry, a large observational study

BACKGROUND

This ANAFIE Registry sub-analysis investigated 2-year outcomes and oral anticoagulant (OAC) use stratified by glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels among Japanese patients aged ≥ 75 years with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) with and without clinical diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM).

METHODS

The ANAFIE Registry was a large-scale multicenter, observational study conducted in Japan; this sub-analysis included patients with baseline HbA1c data at baseline. The main endpoints evaluated (stroke/systemic embolic events [SEE], major bleeding, intracranial hemorrhage, cardiovascular death, all-cause death, and net clinical outcome [a composite of stroke/SEE, major bleeding, and all-cause death]) were stratified by HbA1c levels (< 6.0%; 6.0% to < 7.0%; 7.0% to < 8.0%; and ≥ 8.0%).

RESULTS

Of 17,526 patients with baseline HbA1c values, 8725 (49.8%) patients had HbA1c < 6.0%, 6700 (38.2%) had 6.0% to < 7.0%, 1548 (8.8%) had 7.0% to < 8.0%, and 553 (3.2%) had ≥ 8.0%. Compared with other subgroups, patients with HbA1c ≥ 8.0% were more likely to have lower renal function, higher CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED scores, higher prevalence of non-paroxysmal AF, and lower direct OAC (DOAC) administration, but higher warfarin administration. The HbA1c ≥ 8.0% subgroup had higher event rates for all-cause death (log-rank P = 0.003) and net clinical outcome (log-rank P = 0.007). Similar trends were observed for stroke/SEE. In multivariate analysis, risk of all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.46 [95% confidence interval 1.11-1.93]) and net clinical outcome (aHR 1.33 [1.05-1.68]) were significantly higher in the HbA1c ≥ 8.0% subgroup. No significant differences were observed in risks of major bleeding or other outcomes in this and other subgroups. No interaction was observed between HbA1c and OACs. Use/non-use of antidiabetic drugs was not associated with risk reduction; event risks did not differ with/without injectable antidiabetic drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

Among elderly Japanese patients with NVAF, only HbA1c ≥ 8.0% was associated with increased all-cause death and net clinical outcome risks; risks of the events did not increase in other HbA1c subgroups. Relative event risks between patients treated with DOACs and warfarin were not modified by HbA1c level.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

UMIN000024006; date of registration: September 12, 2016.

Predictive ability of visit-to-visit blood pressure indices for adverse events in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: Subanalysis of the J-RHYTHM Registry

Background

We previously reported that standard deviation (SD) of systolic blood pressure (SBP), an index of BP variability, and SBP-time in target range (TTR), an index of BP consistency, were significantly associated with adverse events in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Thus, this study aimed to compare predictive ability for adverse events among visit-to-visit BP variability/consistency indices using data from the J-RHYTHM Registry.

Methods

Of 7406 outpatients with NVAF, 7226 (age, 69.7 ± 9.9 years; men, 70.7%), in whom BP was measured 4 times or more (14.6 ± 5.0 times) during the 2-year follow-up period or until occurrence of an event, were included. As BP consistency for target SBP between 110 and 130 mmHg, SBP-TTR by the Rosendaal method and SBP-frequency in range (FIR) were calculated. Predictive ability was expressed by the area under receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC). AUCs of SBP-TTR and SBP-FIR for adverse events were compared with those of SBP-SD by the DeLong's test.

Results

SBP-SD, SBP-TTR, and SBP-FIR were 11.0 ± 4.2 mmHg, 49.5 ± 28.3%, and 52.3 ± 23.0%, respectively. AUCs of these indices for thromboembolism, major hemorrhage, and all-cause death were 0.62, 0.64, and 0.63 for SBP-SD; 0.56, 0.55, and 0.56 for SBP-TTR; and 0.55, 0.56, and 0.58 for SBP-FIR; respectively. AUCs of SBP-SD were significantly larger than those of SBP-TTR for major hemorrhage (P = 0.010) and all-cause death (P = 0.014), and SBP-FIR for major hemorrhage (P = 0.016).

Conclusion

Among visit-to-visit BP variability/consistency indices, predictive ability of SBP-SD for major hemorrhage and all-cause death was superior to that of SBP-TTR and SBP-FIR in patients with NVAF.

Renal Function and Clinical Outcomes Among Elderly Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation From ANAFIE

Background

Advancing age, decreasing renal function, and atrial fibrillation are strongly associated. Real-world evidence of direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) use among elderly patients ≥75 years of age with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and renal dysfunction is limited.

Objectives

This study sought to assess 2-year outcomes and anticoagulant treatment, stratified by renal function.

Methods

Enrolled patients were divided into 4 subgroups by creatinine clearance (CrCl) to determine the impact of renal dysfunction on clinical outcomes.

Results

Of 32,275 patients, 26,202 with CrCl data were analyzed (median follow-up 2.00 [IQR: 1.92-2.00] years); 1.3% of patients had CrCl <15 mL/min, 10.7% had CrCl 15 to <30 mL/min, 33.4% had CrCl 30 to <50 mL/min, 35.8% had CrCl ≥50 mL/min, and 18.9% had unknown CrCl. Cumulative incidences of stroke/systemic embolic events, major bleeding, major plus clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding, cardiovascular death, all-cause death, and net clinical outcomes increased with decreasing CrCl. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, lower CrCl emerged as an independent risk factor for these clinical outcomes, except for major bleeding, compared with CrCl ≥50 mL/min. The effectiveness and safety of DOACs over warfarin were similar or better across 3 CrCl subgroups with CrCl 15 mL/min or more. DOAC use was associated with a lower risk of stroke/systemic embolic events, major bleeding, cardiovascular death, all-cause death, and net clinical outcome compared with warfarin in patients with CrCl 30 to <50 mL/min.

Conclusions

Incidences of major clinical outcomes increased with decreasing renal function in elderly nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients. DOACs were effective and safe even in patients with renal dysfunction (CrCl 15-<50 mL/min). (Prospective Observational Study in Late-Stage Elderly Patients with Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation: All Nippon AF In Elderly Registry [ANAFIE Registry]; UMIN000024006).

Clinical phenotypes of older adults with non-valvular atrial fibrillation not treated with oral anticoagulants by hierarchical cluster analysis in the ANAFIE Registry

BACKGROUND

Although anticoagulants are indicated for many elderly patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF), some patients do not receive anticoagulant therapy, whose characteristics and outcomes are diverse.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this sub-analysis of the All Nippon AF In the Elderly (ANAFIE) Registry, the phenotypes of patients who were not receiving anticoagulants at baseline were evaluated by cluster analysis using Ward's linkage hierarchical algorithm. Of 32,275 enrolled patients, 2445 (7.6%) were not receiving anticoagulants. Two clusters were identified: (1) elderly paroxysmal AF (PAF) patients with a high proportion of catheter ablation history (57%) and (2) very elderly patients with a high prevalence of previous major bleeding (43%). Respective mean ages were 80.9 and 84.2 years, mean CHA2DS2-VASc scores were 3.8 and 4.9, PAF prevalences were 100.0% and 31.4%, proportions of patients with catheter ablation history were 21.0% and 7.9%, and proportions of patients with a history of major bleeding were 4.0% and 10.8%. Annual incidence rates were 2.72% and 8.81% for all-cause death, 1.66% and 5.85% for major adverse cardiovascular or neurological events, 1.08% and 3.30% for stroke or systemic embolism, and 0.69% and 1.19% for major bleeding, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort of elderly NVAF patients from the ANAFIE Registry who were not receiving anticoagulants, over half had PAF with a high proportion of catheter ablation history and a low incidence of adverse outcomes; for them, non-prescription of anticoagulants may be partially understandable, but they should be carefully monitored regarding AF burden or atrial cardiomyopathy and be adequately anticoagulated when adverse findings are detected. The remaining were very elderly patients with a high prevalence of previous major bleeding and a high incidence of adverse outcomes; for them, non-prescription of anticoagulants is inappropriate because of the high thromboembolic risk.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registration: http://www.umin.ac.jp/; Unique identifier: UMIN000024006.

Impact of cognitive impairment on clinical outcomes in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation: ANAFIE Registry

Background

This subcohort study of All Nippon AF In the Elderly (ANAFIE) Registry based on 33 275 elderly patients (aged ≥75 years) with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) investigated the relationship between cognitive function and 2-year clinical outcomes.

Methods

A total of 2963 (mean age, 81.4 years) patients participated in this subcohort study and were classified as having normal cognition (Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score ≥24/30) or cognitive impairment (score ≤23/30) at baseline. Patients with a decrease of >2 points after 24 months were classified as having cognitive decline.

Results

At baseline, 586 (19.8%) patients had cognitive impairment. These patients tended to be older and had poorer general conditions than patients with normal cognition. The 2-year probability of stroke/systemic embolic events (SEEs), major bleeding and intracranial haemorrhage was numerically higher; those of cardiovascular death, all-cause death and net clinical outcome (composite of stroke/SEE, major bleeding and all-cause death) were significantly higher (all p<0.001) in patients with cognitive impairment versus normal cognition. In multivariate analysis, the risks of cardiovascular death (p=0.021), all-cause death (p<0.001) and net clinical outcome (p<0.001) were higher in patients with cognitive impairment versus those with normal cognition. After 24 months, 642 of 1915 (33.5%) patients with repeated MMSE determination had cognitive decline. Educational background <9 years, older age and concomitant cerebrovascular disorders were significant risk factors of cognitive decline at the 2-year follow-up.

Conclusions

Elderly patients with NVAF with cognitive impairment have a higher mortality risk than those with normal cognition. Several significant risk factors of cognitive decline were identified at 2-year follow-up.

Trial registration number

UMIN000024006 (http://www.umin.ac.jp/).

Causes of Death in Elderly Patients With Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation - Results From the ANAFIE Registry

BACKGROUND

Previous studies on mortality in atrial fibrillation (AF) included a limited number of elderly patients receiving direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). This subanalysis of the ANAFIE Registry evaluated 2-year mortality according to causes of death of elderly non-valvular AF (NVAF) patients in the DOAC era.Methods and Results: The ANAFIE Registry was a multicenter prospective observational study. Mean patient age was 81.5 years and 57.3% of patients were male. Of the 32,275 patients completing the study, 2,242 died. The most frequent causes of death were cardiovascular (CV) death (32.4%), followed by infection (17.1%) and malignancy (16.1%). Incidence rates of CV-, malignancy-, and infection-related death were 1.20, 0.60, and 0.63 per 100 person-years, respectively. Patients aged ≥85 years showed increased proportions of non-CV and non-malignancy deaths and a decreased proportion of malignancy deaths compared with patients aged <85 years. The incidence of death due to congestive heart failure/cardiogenic shock, infection, and renal disease was higher in patients aged ≥85 than those aged <85 years. Compared with warfarin, DOACs were associated with a significantly lower risk of death by intracranial hemorrhage, ischemic stroke, and renal disease.

CONCLUSIONS

This subanalysis described the mortality according to causes of death of Japanese elderly NVAF patients in the DOAC era. Our results imply that a more holistic approach to comorbid conditions and stroke prevention are required in these patients.

Effect of Polypharmacy on Clinical Outcomes in Elderly Patients With Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation - A Sub-Analysis of the ANAFIE Registry

BACKGROUND

This All Nippon AF in the Elderly (ANAFIE) Registry sub-analysis evaluated the impact of polypharmacy on 2-year outcomes in a large, elderly (aged ≥75 years) Japanese population with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF).Methods and Results: The ANAFIE Registry was a multicenter, prospective, observational study with a 24-month follow-up period. Of 32,275 enrolled NVAF patients, 31,419 were grouped by the number of prescribed concomitant medications (other than oral anticoagulants [OACs]): 0-4 [38.8%], 5-8 [43.3%], and ≥9 [17.9%]). Patients receiving more concomitant medications were older, had poor renal function, and suffered more comorbidities than those receiving fewer concomitant medications. Several patient background factors, including diabetes mellitus, myocardial infarction, and chronic kidney disease, were significantly correlated with an increased number of concomitant medications. With increasing medications, OAC prescription rates decreased, but the warfarin prescription rate increased, and the cumulative incidence rates of stroke/systemic embolic events (SEE), major bleeding, gastrointestinal bleeding, fracture/falls, cardiovascular events, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death significantly increased (each, P<0.05). In multivariate analysis, increasing medications was independently associated with increases in these events, except for stroke/SEE. There were no significant interactions between the number of medications and anticoagulant treatment with direct OAC or warfarin concerning the incidence of these events.

CONCLUSIONS

Polypharmacy was frequent among elderly patients with NVAF who were older with more comorbidities, and was independently associated with a higher incidence of extracranial events.

Prognostic impact of heart rate during atrial fibrillation on clinical outcomes in elderly non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients: ANAFIE Registry sub-cohort study

BACKGROUND

Elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are at a higher risk for all-cause mortality and heart failure. Rate control is an essential component in AF management. This exploratory study assessed the relationship between resting heart rate during AF at baseline and clinical outcomes in Japanese elderly non-valvular AF (NVAF) patients, using the All Nippon AF In the Elderly Registry (ANAFIE) dataset.

METHODS

This sub-cohort included patients who agreed to participate and presented with AF at enrollment in the ANAFIE study. They were categorized into six groups according to the resting heart rate during AF. Outcomes included 2-year cumulative incidences of stroke/systemic embolic events (SEE), ischemic stroke, major bleeding, cardiovascular (CV) events, CV death, all-cause death, and net clinical outcome, a composite of stroke/SEE, major bleeding, and all-cause death.

RESULTS

Of the 8292 patients included in this sub-cohort (paroxysmal, 1496; non-paroxysmal, 6796), 90 % of patients were using anticoagulants. Higher heart rate was more frequently reported in women and in patients with paroxysmal AF and was associated with increased use of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) and antiarrhythmic drugs. Heart rate ≥110 beats per minute (bpm) was associated with a significantly higher incidence of cardiac events and numerically higher incidences of CV death and all-cause death compared with a heart rate of 60 to <80 bpm, all of which were driven by an increased risk in patients with non-paroxysmal AF. Hazard ratios by the type of anticoagulant for each clinical outcome were comparable across all heart rate categories, indicating no significant interactions.

CONCLUSIONS

Elderly Japanese patients with non-paroxysmal NVAF and a heart rate ≥110 bpm have an increased risk of cardiac events. There was no interaction between heart rate category and the relative risk of adverse clinical events in patients taking DOACs compared with those taking warfarin.

Oral Anticoagulants in Very Elderly Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Patients With High Bleeding Risks: ANAFIE Registry

BACKGROUND

Data on the effectiveness and safety of oral anticoagulant (OAC) agents in very elderly nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients with high bleeding risk are lacking.

OBJECTIVES

This study examined 2-year outcomes and effects of OAC agents among these patients using the ANAFIE (All Nippon Atrial Fibrillation in the Elderly) registry (N = 32,275) data.

METHODS

Patients were classified into high-risk (age: ≥80 years; CHADS₂ score: ≥2; and presence of ≥1 bleeding risk factor: creatinine clearance of 15-30 mL/minute, prior bleeding at critical sites, body weight of ≤45 kg, or continuous antiplatelet use) and reference groups.

RESULTS

In the high-risk (n = 7,104) and reference (n = 25,171) group patients, 89.0% and 93.4%, respectively, used OAC agents. Of these, respectively, 30.1% and 24.2% used warfarin, and 58.9% and 69.1% used direct-acting OAC (DOAC) agents. Compared with the reference group, the high-risk group had higher incidences of stroke/systemic embolism, major bleeding, intracranial hemorrhage, gastrointestinal bleeding, cardiovascular events, and all-cause death. In the high-risk group, DOAC agent use vs nonuse of OAC agents was associated with reduced incidences of stroke/systemic embolism (HR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.36-0.79) and all-cause death (HR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.52-0.81) but not with major bleeding (HR: 1.09; 95% CI: 0.63-1.89). DOAC agents were superior to warfarin in effectiveness and safety. For high-risk patients, history of major bleeding, severe liver dysfunction, and falls within 1 year were independent risk factors for major bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

High-risk elderly nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients had higher event incidences. DOAC agents were associated with reduced risk of stroke/systemic embolism and all-cause death vs nonuse of OAC agents or warfarin. (Prospective Observational Study in Late-Stage Elderly Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation [ANAFIE registry]; UMIN000024006).

Home Blood Pressure Can Predict the Risk for Stroke/Bleeding Events in Elderly Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation From the ANAFIE Registry

BACKGROUND

Blood pressure (BP) fluctuates significantly in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF); office BP measurements seem insufficient to assess AF patient risk accurately. We hypothesized that home BP could better predict the risk of stroke/systemic embolic events (SEE) and major bleeding in patients with AF than office BP.

METHODS

In this prespecified subcohort study of the ANAFIE (All Nippon AF in the Elderly) Registry, we evaluated the impact of home BP on the risk of stroke/SEE, major bleeding, intracranial hemorrhage, all-cause death, and net cardiovascular outcome (a composite of stroke/SEE and major bleeding). At enrollment, home BP was measured twice in the morning and evening for 7 days.

RESULTS

In total, 4933 elderly patients (aged ≥75 years) with nonvalvular AF participated. Incidences of net cardiovascular outcome, stroke/SEE, major bleeding, and intracranial hemorrhage increased significantly with increasing home systolic BP (H-SBP). Compared with H-SBP <125 mm Hg, ≥145 mm Hg was associated with increased risk of these events. The association between H-SBP and the events was observed only in patients with ≥20 H-SBP measurements.

CONCLUSIONS

In elderly patients with nonvalvular AF, high H-SBP (≥145 mm Hg) was a significant predictor of stroke/SEE, major bleeding, and intracranial hemorrhage risk. Strict BP control guided by the increasing number of home BP measurements may provide an accurate clinical outcome risk assessment.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.umin.ac.jp/ctr; Unique identifier: UMIN000024006.

Impact of Previous Stroke on Clinical Outcome in Elderly Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation: ANAFIE Registry

Background:

We determined the long-term event incidence among elderly patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation in terms of history of stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) and oral anticoagulation.

Methods:

Patients aged ≥75 years with documented nonvalvular atrial fibrillation enrolled in the prospective, multicenter, observational All Nippon Atrial Fibrillation in the Elderly Registry between October 2016 and January 2018 were divided into 2 groups according to history of stroke/TIA. The primary end point was the occurrence of stroke/systemic embolism within 2 years, and secondary end points were major bleeding and all-cause death within 2 years. Cox models were used to determine whether there was a difference in the hazard of each end point in patients with/without history of stroke/TIA, and in ischemic stroke/TIA survivors taking direct oral anticoagulants versus those taking warfarin.

Results:

Of 32 275 evaluable patients (13 793 women [42.7%]; median age, 81.0 years), 7304 (22.6%) had a history of stroke/TIA. The patients with previous stroke/TIA were more likely to be male and older and had higher hazard rates of stroke/systemic embolism (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.25 [95% CI, 1.97–2.58]), major bleeding (1.25, 1.05–1.49), and all-cause death (1.13, 1.02–1.24) than the other groups. Of 6446 patients with prior ischemic stroke/TIA, 4393 (68.2%) were taking direct oral anticoagulants and 1668 (25.9%) were taking warfarin at enrollment. The risk of stroke/systemic embolism was comparable between these 2 groups (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.71–1.14]), while the risk of major bleeding (0.67, 0.48–0.94), intracranial hemorrhage (0.57, 0.39–0.85), and cardiovascular death (0.71, 0.51–0.99) was lower among those taking direct oral anticoagulants.

Conclusions:

Patients aged ≥75 years with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and previous stroke/TIA more commonly had subsequent ischemic and hemorrhagic events than those without previous stroke/TIA. Among patients with previous ischemic stroke/TIA, the risk of hemorrhagic events was lower in patients taking direct oral anticoagulants compared with warfarin.

REGISTRATION:

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique Identifier: UMIN000024006.

Two-year outcomes of more than 30 000 elderly patients with atrial fibrillation: results from the All Nippon AF In the Elderly (ANAFIE) Registry

AIMS

To clarify the real-world clinical status and prognosis of elderly and very elderly non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients, more than 30 000 elderly patients with NVAF aged ≥75 years were enrolled in the ANAFIE Registry.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This multicentre, prospective, observational study followed elderly NVAF patients in Japan for ∼2 years. Among 32 275 patients (mean age, 81.5 years; men, 57.3%; mean CHA2DS2-VASc score, 4.5), 2445 (7.6%) were not receiving oral anticoagulants (OACs) and 29 830 (92.4%) were given OACs. Of these, 21 585 (66.9%) were receiving direct OACs (DOACs) and 8233 (25.5%), warfarin (mean time in therapeutic range: ∼75%). In total, the 2-year incidence rate was 3.01% for stroke/systemic embolic events (SEE); 2.00%, major bleeding; and 6.95%, all-cause death. When compared with the warfarin group, the DOAC group had a lower hazard ratio (HR) for stroke/SEE, major bleeding, and all-cause death after adjusting for confounders. The group without OACs had a higher HR for stroke/SEE and all-cause death, with a lower HR for major bleeding. History of falls within 1 year at enrolment and of catheter ablation were positive and negative independent risk factors, respectively, for stroke/SEE, major bleeding, and all-cause death.

CONCLUSION

In Japan, a large proportion of elderly and very elderly NVAF patients were receiving DOACs, which was significantly associated with lower rates of stroke/SEE, major bleeding, and all-cause death vs. well-controlled warfarin. History of falls and of catheter ablation were independently associated with stroke/SEE, major bleeding, and all-cause death.

Echocardiographic Structure and Function in Elderly Patients With Atrial Fibrillation in Japan - The ANAFIE Echocardiographic Substudy

BACKGROUND

Echocardiographic data on the cardiac structure and function in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) are limited. This subcohort study of the ANAFIE Registry analyzed echocardiographic parameters to identify cardiac structural and functional characteristics.Methods and Results:Of 32,726 subjects in the ANAFIE population, 1,494 (4.6%) were entered as the echocardiography subcohort. Half of the patients, including those with persistent and permanent AF, older age (≥80 years), and CHADS₂score ≥2, had left atrial (LA) volume index ≥48 mL/m², indicating severe LA enlargement. LA enlargement significantly correlated with impaired LA reservoir function, regardless of age and CHADS₂score. Types of AF and rhythm were strongly related to LA volume and reservoir function (P<0.0001). Moderate-to-severe mitral and tricuspid regurgitation were significantly more common, and the early diastolic mitral inflow velocity to mitral annulus velocity ratio was significantly higher among patients with than without HF history (all, P<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this subcohort, LA enlargement correlated with impaired LA reservoir function. Elderly patients with non-valvular AF and a history of HF had LA enlargement and dysfunction, increased LV mass index, low LV ejection fraction, and high heart rate.

Effect of Cancer on Clinical Outcomes in Elderly Patients With Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation - Substudy of the ANAFIE Registry

BACKGROUND

Data on outcomes for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and active cancer are scarce. The effect of active cancer on thrombosis and bleeding risks in elderly (≥75 years) patients with non-valvular AF (NVAF) enrolled in the All Nippon AF In the Elderly (ANAFIE) Registry were prospectively analyzed.Methods and Results:In this subanalysis of the ANAFIE Registry, a prospective, multicenter, observational study conducted in Japan, we compared the incidence rates of clinical outcomes between active cancer and non-cancer groups. Relationships between primary outcomes and anticoagulation status were evaluated. Of the 32,725 patients enrolled in the Registry, 3,569 had active cancer at baseline; 92.0% of active cancer patients received anticoagulants (23.7%, warfarin; 68.2%, direct oral anticoagulants [DOACs]). Two-year probabilities of stroke/systemic embolic events (SEE) were similar in the cancer (3.33%) and non-cancer (3.16%) groups. Patients with cancer had greater incidences of major bleeding (2.86% vs. 2.04%), all-cause death (10.95% vs. 6.77%), and net clinical outcomes (14.63% vs. 10.00%) than those without cancer. In patients without cancer, DOACs were associated with a decreased risk of stroke/SEE, major bleeding, all-cause death, and net clinical outcome compared with warfarin. No between-treatment differences were observed in patients with active cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Active cancer had no effect on stroke/SEE incidence in elderly NVAF patients, but those with cancer had higher incidences of major bleeding events and all-cause death than those without cancer.

Coronary Arterial Vasospasm: A Rare Complication of Vein of Marshall Ethanol Infusion for Atrial Fibrillation

A 75-year-old man was admitted for repeat ablation of atrial fibrillation. At 30 min after infusion of 3.5 ml of ethanol into the vein of Marshall, inferior ST-segment elevation with coronary arterial vasospasm was observed. This is the first report of coronary vasospasm after chemical ablation of the vein of Marshall. (Level of Difficulty: Intermediate.).

Comparison among random forest, logistic regression, and existing clinical risk scores for predicting outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: A report from the J-RHYTHM registry

Background

Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising tool for risk stratification. However, few studies have applied ML to risk assessment of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).

Hypothesis

We aimed to compare the performance of random forest (RF), logistic regression (LR), and conventional risk schemes in predicting the outcomes of AF.

Methods

We analyzed data from 7406 nonvalvular AF patients (median age 71 years, female 29.2%) enrolled in a nationwide AF registry (J‐RHYTHM Registry) and who were followed for 2 years. The endpoints were thromboembolisms, major bleeding, and all‐cause mortality. Models were generated from potential predictors using an RF model, stepwise LR model, and the thromboembolism (CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂‐VASc) and major bleeding (HAS‐BLED, ORBIT, and ATRIA) scores.

Results

For thromboembolisms, the C‐statistic of the RF model was significantly higher than that of the LR model (0.66 vs. 0.59, p = .03) or CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score (0.61, p < .01). For major bleeding, the C‐statistic of RF was comparable to the LR (0.69 vs. 0.66, p = .07) and outperformed the HAS‐BLED (0.61, p < .01) and ATRIA (0.62, p < .01) but not the ORBIT (0.67, p = .07). The C‐statistic of RF for all‐cause mortality was comparable to the LR (0.78 vs. 0.79, p = .21). The calibration plot for the RF model was more aligned with the observed events for major bleeding and all‐cause mortality.

Conclusions

The RF model performed as well as or better than the LR model or existing clinical risk scores for predicting clinical outcomes of AF.

Ischemic stroke, hemorrhage, and mortality in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and renal dysfunction treated with rivaroxaban: sub-analysis of the EXPAND study

The EXPAND Study demonstrated the effectiveness and safety of rivaroxaban in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) in routine clinical practice in Japan. This sub-analysis was conducted to reveal the effectiveness and safety of rivaroxaban in Japanese NVAF patients according to baseline creatinine clearance (CrCl) levels and rivaroxaban doses in the EXPAND Study. We examined 6806 patients whose baseline CrCl data were available and classified them into 2 groups: normal renal function group with CrCl ≥ 50 mL/min (n = 5326, 78%) and renal dysfunction group with CrCl < 50 mL/min (n = 1480, 22%). In the normal renal function group, 1609 (30%) received 10 mg/day (under-dose), while in the renal dysfunction group, 108 (7%) received 15 mg/day (over-dose). In the normal renal function group, under-dose of rivaroxaban was associated with higher all-cause mortality, while in the renal dysfunction group, over-dose was associated with higher incidence of major bleeding. In contrast, the incidence of stroke or systemic embolism was not different between the 2 groups regardless of the dose of rivaroxaban. In the propensity score matched analysis to adjust the difference in characteristics according to doses of rivaroxaban, the incidences of clinical outcomes were comparable between the 2 dose groups in both renal function groups. These results indicate that the dose of rivaroxaban should be reduced depending on the renal function, considering the balance between risks of bleeding and ischemia.

Background characteristics and anticoagulant usage patterns of elderly non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients in the ANAFIE registry: a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study in Japan

OBJECTIVE

To explore anticoagulant usage patterns stratified by stroke and bleeding risk in elderly patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF).

DESIGN

Prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study.

SETTING

The real-world All Nippon AF In the Elderly (ANAFIE) registry.

PARTICIPANTS

Japanese patients aged ≥75 years with NVAF (n=32 726).

OUTCOME MEASURES

The distribution of stroke and bleeding risk scores, and the selection of anticoagulant regimen for patients at high stroke and bleeding risk.

RESULTS

Overall, 18 185 (55.6%) patients had a high risk of stroke (CHADS₂ score ≥3). Of these, 12 561 (38.4% of the total ANAFIE population) had a low bleeding risk (HAS-BLED ≤2) and 5624 (17.2%) had a high bleeding risk (HAS-BLED ≥3). Significant differences were noted between the high versus low bleeding risk groups in sex, height, weight, systolic blood pressure and rates of abnormality of lipid metabolism, gastrointestinal disease, cerebrovascular disorders, chronic kidney disease, angina pectoris, respiratory disease, primary malignant tumour, dementia and fall history within the past year (all p<0.0001). Patients with high stroke and bleeding risks had a lower anticoagulant usage rate versus the low bleeding risk group, and 8.7% and 5.8%, respectively, were not receiving any anticoagulant (p<0.0001). Patients in the high bleeding risk group had a higher usage of warfarin versus the low bleeding risk group (p<0.0001); more patients (14.0%) in the high bleeding risk group receiving warfarin had time in the therapeutic range <40%, versus those in the low bleeding risk group (11.6%, p=0.0146). Direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) were used less in the high bleeding risk group, without notable differences in the DOAC dose distribution between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In elderly NVAF patients at high stroke risk, significant demographic and clinical differences were observed according to bleeding risk. Administration of low-dose DOACs was frequent, but the dose distribution was unaffected by bleeding risk.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

UMIN000024006 (http://www.umin.ac.jp/).

High prevalence of masked uncontrolled morning hypertension in elderly non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients: Home blood pressure substudy of the ANAFIE Registry

In the ANAFIE Registry home blood pressure subcohort, we evaluated 5204 patients aged ≥75 years with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) to assess blood pressure (BP) control, prevalence of masked hypertension, and anticoagulant use. Mean clinic (C) and home (H) systolic/diastolic BP(SBP/DBP) was 128.5/71.3 and 127.7/72.6 mm Hg, respectively. Overall, 77.5% of patients had hypertension; of these, 27.7%, 13.4%, 23.4%, and 35.6% had well-controlled, white coat, masked, and sustained hypertension, respectively. Masked hypertension prevalence increased with diabetes, decreased renal function, age ≥80 years, current smoker status, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. By morning/evening average, 59.0% of patients had mean H-SBP ≥ 125 mm Hg; 48.9% had mean C-SBP ≥ 130 mm Hg. Early morning hypertension (morning H-SBP ≥ 125 mm Hg) was found in 65.9% of patients. Although 51.1% of patients had well-controlled C-SBP, 52.5% of these had uncontrolled morning H-SBP. In elderly NVAF patients, morning H-BP was poorly controlled, and masked uncontrolled morning hypertension remains significant.

Impact of Blood Pressure Visit-to-Visit Variability on Adverse Events in Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation: Subanalysis of the J-RHYTHM Registry

Background

Blood pressure (BP) variability has reportedly been a risk factor for various clinical events. To clarify the influence of BP visit‐to‐visit variability on adverse events in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, a post hoc analysis of the J‐RHYTHM Registry was performed.

Methods and Results

Of 7406 outpatients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation from 158 institutions, 7226 (age, 69.7±9.9 years; men, 70.7%), in whom BP was measured 4 times or more (14.6±5.0 times) during the 2‐year follow‐up period or until occurrence of an event, constituted the study group. SD and coefficient of variation of BP values were calculated as BP variability. Thromboembolism, major hemorrhage, and all‐cause death occurred in 110 (1.5%), 121 (1.7%), and 168 (2.3%) patients, respectively. When patients were divided into quartiles of systolic BP‐SD (<8.20, 8.20–10.49, 10.50–13.19, and ≥13.20 mm Hg), hazard ratios (HRs) for all adverse events were significantly high in the highest quartile compared with the lowest quartile (HR, 2.00, 95% CI, 1.15–3.49, P=0.015 for thromboembolism; HR, 2.60, 95% CI, 1.36–4.97, P=0.004 for major hemorrhage; and HR, 1.85, 95% CI, 1.11–3.07, P=0.018 for all‐cause death) after adjusting for components of the CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score, warfarin and antiplatelet use, atrial fibrillation type, BP measurement times, and others. These findings were consistent when BP‐coefficient of variation was used instead of BP‐SD.

Conclusions

Systolic BP visit‐to‐visit variability was significantly associated with all adverse events in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Further studies are needed to clarify the causality between BP variability and adverse outcomes in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.

Registration

URL: https://www.umin.ac.jp/ctr/; Unique Identifier: UMIN000001569.

Current status of proton pump inhibitor use in Japanese elderly patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: A subanalysis of the ANAFIE Registry

The real-world status of proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receiving antithrombotic treatment is largely unknown. The All Nippon AF In the Elderly (ANAFIE) Registry, a prospective, multicenter, observational study, aimed to determine treatment patterns, risk factors, and outcomes among elderly (aged ≥75 years) Japanese non-valvular AF (NVAF) patients in the real-world clinical setting. The present subanalysis of the ANAFIE Registry determined the PPI prescription status of 32,490 elderly Japanese NVAF patients. Patients were stratified by PPI use (PPI+) or no PPI use (PPI−). Risk scores for stroke (CHADS₂, CHA₂DS₂-VASc) and bleeding (HAS-BLED), anticoagulant use, time in therapeutic range (TTR) for warfarin, and anticoagulant/antiplatelet combination use were evaluated. PPIs were used in 11,981 (36.9%) patients. Compared with the PPI− group, the PPI+ group included a greater proportion of female patients (45.2% vs 41.3%; P <0.0001) and had significantly higher CHADS₂, CHA₂DS₂-VASc, and HAS-BLED scores (P <0.0001 for each) as well as higher prevalences of several comorbidities. In the PPI+ group, 54.6% of patients did not have gastrointestinal (GI) disorders and were likely prescribed a PPI to prevent GI bleeding events. Most of the patients with a GI disorder in the PPI+ group had reflux esophagitis. Compared with patients not receiving anticoagulants, a significantly higher proportion of patients receiving anticoagulants received PPIs. For patients receiving anticoagulants, antiplatelet drugs, and both drugs, rates of PPI use were 34.1%, 44.1%, and 53.5%, respectively (P <0.01). Although the rate of PPI use was the highest for NVAF patients receiving both antiplatelet and anticoagulants, no clear differences were observed in the anticoagulants used. These data suggest that PPIs were actively prescribed in high-risk cases and may have been used to prevent GI bleeding among elderly NVAF patients receiving antithrombotic drugs.

Trial registration:UMIN000024006

Utility of novel Omnipolar activation mapping for the detection of ventricular premature contraction origin

Background

Bipolar electrograms are significantly influenced by direction of the propagating wavefront in relation to the recording bipole. Omnipolar voltage mapping may be superior to standard bipolar mapping since it obtains maximum voltage of all possible bipolar electrode orientations without the need for catheter rotation. Therefore, omnipolar maps can provide voltage maps with larger voltages as well as better defined boundaries.

Purpose

Whether omnipolar activation maps also describe better activation maps versus traditional bipolar maps during ventricular premature contraction (VPC) catheter ablation is unclear.

Methods

A high-density mapping catheter was advanced to the ventricular outflow tract and a high-resolution activation map was created. Each electrode along and across the splines of the catheter are 4mm apart. Bipoles were calculated along (MAP 2), across (MAP 3) and bidirectional (MAP 4) the splines while omnipoles (MAP 1) were derived from a right triangle clique. Within a square area, four omnipolar and two bipolar values along, across and bidirectional values were defined.

Results

Though the earliest activation site was vague by along and across maps (arrow), white color became evident by bidirectional map, and the VPC origin became distinct with omnipolar mapping. RF lesions were given via an open-irrigated ablation catheter targeting a lesion size index 5.0. The VPC was eliminated by radiofrequency ablation.

Conclusion

Omnipolar activation mapping may be more accurate than traditional bipolar mapping during ventricular premature contraction (VPC) catheter ablation.

Figure 1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Oral Anticoagulant Use in Elderly Japanese Patients With Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation - Subanalysis of the ANAFIE Registry

Background: Oral anticoagulants (OACs) are effective in preventing stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but are challenging for elderly patients because of the higher risk of bleeding complications.

Methods and Results: The ANAFIE Registry is a prospective multicenter observational study of elderly (≥75 years) Japanese AF patients. This subanalysis evaluated the current use of OACs. Of 32,713 patients (mean age 81.5 years), 30,068 (91.9%) were receiving OACs, including 8,354 (25.5%) on warfarin and 21,714 (66.4%) on direct OACs (DOACs); 2,645 (8.1%) were not receiving OACs. The most common prescribed dose was a reduced dose for all DOACs. A substantial proportion of patients receiving the reduced dose did not fulfill dose reduction criteria (underdosing): apixaban, 25.1%; rivaroxaban, 26.3%; and edoxaban, 13.7%. Some patients received a lower off-label dose rather than the reduced dose: apixaban, 5.9%; rivaroxaban, 0.3%; edoxaban, 5.3%; and dabigatran, 13.6%. In multivariate analyses, advanced age, history of hemorrhage, paroxysmal AF, and antiplatelet drug use were significantly associated with no OAC. Advanced age, persistent or permanent AF, chronic kidney disease, and concomitant antiplatelet drugs were associated with warfarin rather than DOAC use.

Conclusions: In the ANAFIE Registry, >90% of elderly Japanese AF patients received OAC therapy, mostly DOACs. Inappropriate low doses of DOACs that did not fulfill dose reduction criteria were prescribed in 20–30% of patients.

Predictive ability of creatinine clearance versus estimated glomerular filtration rate for outcomes in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: Subanalysis of the J-RHYTHM Registry

BACKGROUND

Renal impairment is a risk factor for various adverse events, especially for death. In general, creatinine clearance (CrCl) is used for dose-adjustments of many drugs including oral anticoagulants, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is adopted for the diagnosis of chronic kidney disease. Predictive ability of CrCl versus eGFR for outcomes in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) remains controversial; therefore, this was compared using data from the J-RHYTHM Registry.

METHODS

Out of 7406 outpatients with NVAF from 158 institutions, 6004 (age, 69.7 ± 9.9 years; men, 71.2%) having data of CrCl (mL/min, by the Cockcroft-Gault formula), eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m2, by the equations of the Japanese Society of Nephrology), and body surface area (BSA) were analyzed. C-statistics (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve) of CrCl and eGFR for events were compared by DeLong's test.

RESULTS

Thromboembolism, major hemorrhage, and all-cause death occurred in 107 (1.8%), 117 (1.9%), and 154 (2.6%) patients during the 2-year follow-up period. C-statistics of CrCl for each event were 0.609 (95% confidence interval, 0.559-0.658), 0.599 (0.548-0.657), and 0.746 (0.706-0.786); and those of eGFR were 0.542 (0.487-0.597), 0.573 (0.519-0.626), and 0.677 (0.631-0.723), respectively. C-statistics of CrCl for thromboembolism and all-cause death were significantly higher than those of eGFR (P < 0.001 for both). These results were consistent when BSA-unadjusted eGFR was used instead of eGFR (P = 0.002 for thromboembolism and P < 0.001 for all-cause death).

CONCLUSIONS

CrCl was superior to eGFR in the prediction of adverse outcomes, i.e., thromboembolism and all-cause death in Japanese patients with NVAF.

Characteristics and anticoagulant treatment status of elderly non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients with a history of catheter ablation in Japan: Subanalysis of the ANAFIE registry

BACKGROUND

Benefits of catheter ablation (CA) have been shown for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), including elderly patients. However, data in patients aged ≥75 years who have undergone CA for non-valvular AF (NVAF) are lacking. This cross-sectional subanalysis of the ANAFIE registry determined the characteristics and status of anticoagulant treatment in elderly NVAF patients with a history of CA at enrollment.

METHOD

The ANAFIE registry was a multicenter, prospective, non-interventional cohort study in which elderly ambulatory patients (≥75 years) diagnosed with NVAF by electrocardiogram were enrolled between October 2016 and January 2018. Treatment was prescribed per routine clinical practice by individual treating physicians. The patients were stratified into two groups: the CA and No-CA groups.

RESULTS

Among 32,726 NVAF patients aged ≥75 years, 3002 (9.2%) underwent CA before enrollment. Patients who underwent CA were significantly younger (78.9 years vs 81.7 years; p < 0.0001), had significantly greater height and body weight, as well as creatinine clearance rate (CCr) compared with those who did not undergo CA. In both the CA and No-CA groups, the most common type of AF was paroxysmal AF (72.9% and 38.9%). In the CA group, a significantly larger proportion of patients did not receive anticoagulant therapy compared with the No-CA group (13.3% vs 7.6%; p < 0.0001). Direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) use was similar in the CA (69.9%) and No-CA (66.0%) groups, and standard doses of DOACs were administered more frequently in the CA group than in the No-CA group. A lower proportion of patients in the CA group received warfarin (16.9% vs 26.4%) compared with the No-CA group.

CONCLUSIONS

This ANAFIE registry subanalysis showed that patients with NVAF in the CA group tended to have paroxysmal AF; be significantly younger; have greater weight, height, and CCr; receive standard doses of DOACs; and have not used anticoagulant medication compared with No-CA patients.

Dabigatran for Japanese Patients with Atrial Fibrillation and Prior Stroke: A Subgroup Analysis of the J-Dabigatran Surveillance Program

BACKGROUND

The study objective was to evaluate long-term safety and effectiveness of dabigatran 110 mg and 150 mg twice daily (bid) in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) with a focus on secondary stroke prevention.

METHODS

In J-Dabigatran Surveillance, 6772 patients newly initiated on dabigatran to prevent ischemic stroke and systemic embolism were enrolled in Japan (1042 sites, December 2011 to November 2013). This subgroup analysis included patients with (1302) and without (5071) previous stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA). Case report forms were reviewed to determine incidence of outcome events.

RESULTS

In patients with previous stroke/TIA, the incidence rate for recurrent stroke/TIA was 2.48/100 patient-years (ischemic stroke 2.22, hemorrhagic stroke 0.18, TIA 0.12) and for major bleeding was 1.79/100 patient-years, including intracranial bleeding (0.55). Event rates for recurrent stroke/TIA or major bleeding were 1.2% (for both) for patients who started dabigatran less than 30 days after stroke onset and 0.3% (for both) for patients who started dabigatran more than or equal to 30 days after stroke onset, and were independent of dabigatran dose. For patients with previous stroke/TIA, 17% who received 110 mg bid did not meet dose reduction recommendations (DRRs) and 28% who received 150 mg bid met at least 1 DRR, but the dabigatran dose was not reduced. Use of DRRs did not have a major impact on the incidence rates of recurrent stroke/TIA and major bleeding.

CONCLUSION

Findings from this subgroup analysis support the real-world safety and effectiveness of long-term dabigatran in Japan, particularly for patients with NVAF in secondary prevention settings.

Age-Related Differences in the Clinical Characteristics and Treatment of Elderly Patients With Atrial Fibrillation in Japan - Insight From the ANAFIE (All Nippon AF In Elderly) Registry

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasing as the global population ages. Elderly AF patients (≥75 years) have a worse prognosis than younger patients, and effective management is often difficult due to multiple comorbidities. This analysis examined the age-related differences in clinical characteristics and treatment in real-world elderly Japanese AF patients.Methods and Results:The ANAFIE Registry is a multicenter, prospective, observational registry of 32,726 non-valvular AF patients aged ≥75 years. The present study assessed the age-related differences in baseline clinical status and anticoagulant therapy between age groups 75-<80, 80-<85, 85-<90, and ≥90 years. The prevalence of persistent or permanent AF increased, and that of paroxysmal AF decreased, with increasing age (trend P<0.0001). The risk of stroke, based on CHADS₂and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores, and bleeding, based on HAS-BLED score, increased with age. Both warfarin and apixaban were used more often as age increased (trend P<0.0001, for each), while other anticoagulants were used less. Anticoagulant doses were significantly lower in older patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Permanent/persistent AF, comorbidities, and cardiovascular and bleeding risk all increased significantly with age. Furthermore, use of warfarin and apixaban increased with age, accompanied by a decrease in other oral anticoagulant usage.

Impact of hemoglobin concentration and platelet count on outcomes of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: A subanalysis of the J-RHYTHM Registry

BACKGROUND

To clarify the influence of hemoglobin concentration and platelet count on adverse outcomes of Japanese patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF), a post hoc analysis of the J-RHYTHM Registry was performed.

METHODS

A consecutive series of outpatients with atrial fibrillation were enrolled from 158 institutions and followed up for 2 years or until an event occurred (thromboembolism, major hemorrhage, or all-cause death). Among 7406 patients with NVAF, 6536 with complete blood count data (69.8 ± 9.9 years, 71.0% men) were divided into 4 groups according to the baseline hemoglobin level (<10.0, 10.0-11.9, 12.0-13.9, and ≥14.0 g/dL) or platelet count (<10.0, 10.0-19.9, 20.0-29.9, and ≥30.0 × 10⁴/μL).

RESULTS

Incidence rates of major hemorrhage (p = 0.004 for trend), all-cause death (p < 0.001 for trend), and composite events (p < 0.001 for trend) increased as hemoglobin levels decreased, and composite events (p = 0.045 for trend) increased as platelet counts decreased. After adjusting for multiple confounders, the incidence of all-cause death and composite events was higher with hemoglobin levels <12.0 g/dL than a hemoglobin level ≥14.0 g/dL. In contrast, platelet count was not associated with any events. This was also true when multivariate analysis was performed using the stepwise forward method.

CONCLUSIONS

A low hemoglobin level (<12.0 g/dL) was an independent risk factor for all-cause death and composite events in Japanese patients with NVAF. However, platelet count did not impact outcomes.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

http://www.umin.ac.jp/ctr/ (unique identifier: UMIN000001569).

P5668A decision-support tool framework to predict adverse outcome in patients with atrial fibrillation: J-Rhythm registry substudy

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased mortality and morbidity. Modelling the risk of thrombosis, major bleeding and total mortality are often limited by the inadequate number of independent predictors.

Purpose

We compared the predictive accuracy of the decision-support tool framework and conventional risk score in AF patients.

Methods

We used data of AF patients enrolled into the nationwide AF registry. A random forest model was implemented to predict each outcome, and its predictive power was tested by a 5-fold cross-validation.

Results

We analyzed 7,937 patients with AF (age 70±10 years, female 31%). The type of AF was paroxysmal (37%), persistent (14%), and permanent (49%). The number of antithrombotic treatments were follows: warfarin only (n=5461), antiplatelet only (n=581), both warfarin and antiplatelet (n=1471) and no antithrombotic agents (424). The mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 2.8±1.6 and HAS-BLED score was 2.7±1.2, respectively. We selected 20 from 50 clinical parameters and compared by the area-under-curve with the CHA2DS2-VASc score for thromboses and the HAS-BLED score for major bleeding. During the 2-year follow-up, 126 patients (1.6%) had thromboses, 140 (1.8%) had major bleeding, and 195 (2.5%) died. A random forest model had a higher value of the area-under-curve for predicting thromboses compared with the CHA2DS2-VASc (0.66 vs. 0.61, P<0.05), and had a significantly higher area-under-curve for major bleeding compared with the HAS-BLED (0.67 vs. 0.61, P<0.05). The area-under-curve for the all-cause mortality was 0.77.

Conclusions

A random forest model has a higher accuracy than conventional risk scheme in predicting thromboses and major bleeding, in addition to total mortality.