Forecasting recovery from COVID-19 using financial data: An application to Vietnam

We develop a new methodology to nowcast the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on GDP and forecast its evolution in small, export-oriented countries. To this aim, we exploit variation in financial indexes at the industry level in the early stages of the crisis and relate them to the expected duration of the crisis for each industry, under the assumption that the main shocks to financial prices in 2020 came from COVID-19. Starting from the latest official information available at different stages of the crisis on industry-level trend deviations of GDP, often a few months old, we predict the ensuing recovery trajectories using the most recent financial data available at the time of the prediction. The financial data reflect, among other things, how subsequent waves of infections and information about new vaccines have impacted expectations about the future. We apply our method to Vietnam, one of the most open economies in the world, and obtain predictions that are more optimistic than projections by the International Monetary Fund and other international forecasters, and closer to the realised figures. Our claim is that this better-than-expected performance was visible in stock market data early on but was largely missed by conventional forecasting methods.

Understanding the Economic Benefit Associated with Research and Services at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health: An Approach and Three Case Studies

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) asked the RAND Corporation to develop an approach, reported here, for estimating the economic benefit of NIOSH research, using three case studies. The cases provide concrete illustrations of the ways in which NIOSH research could affect worker health and safety practices and outcomes, as well as some initial estimates of the economic benefit associated with those impacts. The authors selected the case studies to illustrate variation in types of NIOSH research and in intended users. The first case study examines research to develop, test, and support implementation of engineering control measures to limit exposure to silica among road construction workers. This case study offers an example of NIOSH's intervention and surveillance research and provision of technical assistance. The second case study involves two NIOSH studies that strengthened the evidence base about the linkage between firefighting activities and increased risk of certain cancers among firefighters. This case study provides an example of etiological and exposure surveillance research, coupled with an intervention study. The third case study involves a NIOSH evaluation of the effectiveness of Ohio's Safety Intervention Grant Program in reducing the prevalence and costs of workplace injuries. This case study illustrates intervention research targeting government organizations. The first and second case studies led to the development of control technologies, and all three case studies involved dissemination and stakeholder engagement efforts that promoted the adoption of risk-reducing technologies and practices.