Global Incidence of Acute Pancreatitis Is Increasing Over Time: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute pancreatitis is a common disease with significant associated morbidity and mortality. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based studies to explore the changing temporal trends of acute pancreatitis incidence globally.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature search to identify population-based studies reporting the annual incidence of acute pancreatitis. Abstracts were assessed independently to identify applicable articles for full-text review and data extraction. Joinpoint temporal trend analyses were performed to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The AAPCs were pooled in a meta-analysis to capture the overall and regional trends in acute pancreatitis incidence over time. Temporal data were summarized in a static map and an interactive, web-based map.

RESULTS

Forty-four studies reported the temporal incidence of acute pancreatitis (online interactive map: https://kaplan-acute-pancreatitis-ucalgary.hub.arcgis.com/). The incidence of acute pancreatitis has increased from 1961 to 2016 (AAPC, 3.07%; 95% CI, 2.30% to 3.84%; n = 34). Increasing incidence was observed in North America (AAPC, 3.67%; 95% CI, 2.76% to 4.57%; n = 4) and Europe (AAPC, 2.77%; 95% CI, 1.91% to 3.63%; n = 23). The incidence of acute pancreatitis was stable in Asia (AAPC, -0.28%; 95% CI, -5.03% to 4.47%; n = 4).

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the global incidence of acute pancreatitis over the last 56 years and demonstrates a steadily rising incidence over time in most countries of the Western world. More studies are needed to better define the changing incidence of acute pancreatitis in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

A246 THE GLOBAL INCIDENCE OF ACUTE PANCREATITIS IS INCREASING OVER TIME: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS

Background

Acute pancreatitis is a common disease with significant associated morbidity and mortality. Historically, acute pancreatitis has been considered a disease with multiple etiologies and risk factors but is driven by alcohol and biliary disease. Multiple studies have shown that the incidence of acute pancreatitis is increasing globally among both adults and children.

Aims

The purpose of this study was to assess temporal trends in incidence of acute pancreatitis globally.

Methods

We performed a systematic literature search to identify population-based studies reporting the annual incidence of acute pancreatitis. Abstracts were independently assessed in duplicate to identify applicable papers for full-text review and data extraction. Joinpoint temporal trend analyses were performed to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The AAPCs were pooled in a meta-analysis to capture the overall and regional trends in acute pancreatitis incidence over time. Temporal data were summarized in a static map and an interactive, web-based map to illustrate global differences.

Results

Forty-five studies reported the temporal incidence of acute pancreatitis (static map provided, online interactive map: https://kaplan-acute-pancreatitis-ucalgary.hub.arcgis.com/). The incidence of acute pancreatitis has increased from 1961 to 2016 (AAPC = 2.89%; 95% CI: 2.26, 3.52; n=41). Increasing incidence was observed in North America (AAPC = 2.71%; 95% CI: 1.93, 3.50; n=10) and Europe (AAPC = 2.79%; 95% CI: 1.95, 3.63; n=24). The incidence of acute pancreatitis was stable in Asia (AAPC = −0.28%; 95% CI: −5.03, 4.47; n=2).

Conclusions

This meta-analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the global incidence of acute pancreatitis over the last five decades and demonstrates a steadily rising incidence over time in most countries of the Western world. More studies are needed to better define the changing incidence of acute pancreatitis in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Funding Agencies

None