Integrating mechanistic models and climate change projections to predict invasion of the mussel, Mytilopsis sallei, along the southern China coast

Species invasion is an important cause of global biodiversity decline and is often mediated by shifts in environmental conditions such as climate change. To investigate this relationship, a mechanistic Dynamic Energy Budget model (DEB) approach was used to predict how climate change may affect spread of the invasive mussel Mytilopsis sallei, by predicting variation in the total reproductive output of the mussel under different scenarios. To achieve this, the DEB model was forced with present-day satellite data of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a), and SST under two warming RCP scenarios and decreasing current Chl-a levels, to predict future responses. Under both warming scenarios, the DEB model predicted the reproductive output of M. sallei would enhance range extension of the mussel, especially in regions south of the Yangtze River when future declines in Chl-a were reduced by less than 10%, whereas egg production was inhibited when Chl-a decreased by 20-30%. The decrease in SST in the Yangtze River may, however, be a natural barrier to the northward expansion of M. sallei, with colder temperatures resulting in a strong decrease in egg production. Although the invasion path of M. sallei may be inhibited northwards by the Yangtze River, larger geographic regions south of the Yangtze River run the risk of invasion, with subsequent negative impacts on aquaculture through competition for food with farmed bivalves and damaging aquaculture facilities. Using a DEB model approach to characterise the life history traits of M. sallei, therefore, revealed the importance of food availability and temperature on the reproductive output of this mussel and allowed evaluation of the invasion risk for specific regions. DEB is, therefore, a powerful predictive tool for risk management of already established invasive populations and to identify regions with a high potential invasion risk.

Multi-model projections of precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX-Southeast Asia simulations

This study examines the projected precipitation extremes for the end of 21st century (2081-2100) over Southeast Asia (SEA) using the output of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Eight ensemble members, representing a subset of archived CORDEX-SEA simulations at 25 km spatial resolution, were examined for emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study utilised four different indicators of rainfall extreme, i.e. the annual/seasonal rainfall total (PRCPTOT), consecutive dry days (CDD), frequency of extremely heavy rainfall (R50mm) and annual/seasonal maximum of daily rainfall (RX1day). In general, changes in extreme indices are more pronounced and covering wider area under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. The decrease in annual PRCPTOT is projected over most of SEA region, except for Myanmar and Northern Thailand, with magnitude as much as 20% (30%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The most significant and robust changes were noted in CDD, which is projected to increase by as much as 30% under RCP4.5 and 60% under RCP8.5, particularly over Maritime Continent (MC). The projected decrease in PRCPTOT over MC is significant and robust during June to August (JJA) and September to November (SON). During March to May (MAM) under RCP8.5, significant and robust PRCPTOT decreases are also projected over Indochina. The CDD changes during JJA and SON over MC are even higher, more robust and significant compared to the annual changes. At the same time, a wetting tendency is also projected over Indochina. The R50mm and RX1day are projected to increase, during all seasons with significant and robust signal of RX1day during JJA and SON.

The long-term assessment of air quality on an island in Malaysia

This study aims to evaluate the air quality on Langkawi Island, a famous tourist destination in Malaysia, using 13 years of data (1999-2011) recorded by the Malaysian Department of Environment. Variations of seven air pollutants (O3, CO, NO, NO2, NOx, SO2 and PM10) and three meteorological factors (temperature, humidity and wind speed) were analysed. Statistical methods used to analyse the data included principal component regression (PCR) and sensitivity analysis. The results showed PM10 was the dominant air pollutant in Langkawi and values ranged between 5.0 μg m-3 and 183.2 μg m-3. The patterns of monthly values showed that the concentrations of measured air pollutants on Langkawi were higher during the south-west monsoon (June-September) due to seasonal biomass burning activities. High CO/NOx ratio values (between 28.3 and 43.6), low SO2/NOx ratio values (between 0.04 and 0.12) and NO/NO2 ratio values exceeding 2.2 indicate the source of air pollutants in this area was motor vehicles. PCR analysis grouped the seven variables into two factor components: the F1 component consisted of SO2, NO and NOx and the F2 component consisted of PM10. The F1 component (R2 = 0.931) indicated a stronger standardized coefficient value for meteorological variables compared to the F2 component (R2 = 0.059). The meteorological variables were statistically significant (p < 0.05) in influencing the distribution of the air pollutants. The status of air quality on the island could be improved through control on motor vehicle emissions as well as collaborative efforts to reduce regional air pollution, especially from biomass burning.

Physicochemical factors and their potential sources inferred from long-term rainfall measurements at an urban and a remote rural site in tropical areas

Air pollution can be detected through rainwater composition. In this study, long-term measurements (2000-2014) of wet deposition were made to evaluate the physicochemical interaction and the potential sources of pollution due to changes of land use. The rainwater samples were obtained from an urban site in Kuala Lumpur and a highland-rural site in the middle of Peninsular Malaysia. The compositions of rainwater were obtained from the Malaysian Meteorological Department. The results showed that the urban site experienced more acidity in rainwater (avg=277mm, range of 13.8 to 841mm; pH=4.37) than the rural background site (avg=245mm, range of 2.90 to 598mm; pH=4.97) due to higher anthropogenic input of acid precursors. The enrichment factor (EF) analysis showed that at both sites, SO₄^2-, Ca²⁺ and K⁺ were less sensitive to seawater but were greatly influenced by soil dust. NH₄⁺ and Ca²⁺ can neutralise a larger fraction of the available acid ions in the rainwater at the urban and rural background sites. However, acidifying potential was dominant at urban site compared to rural site. Source-receptor relationship via positive matrix factorisation (PMF 5.0) revealed four similar major sources at both sites with a large variation of the contribution proportions. For urban, the major sources influence on the rainwater chemistry were in the order of secondary nitrates and sulfates>ammonium-rich/agricultural farming>soil components>marine sea salt and biomass burning, while at the background site the order was secondary nitrates and sulfates>marine sea salt and biomass burning=soil components>ammonia-rich/agricultural farming. The long-term trend showed that anthropogenic activities and land use changes have greatly altered the rainwater compositions in the urban environment while the seasonality strongly affected the contribution of sources in the background environment.