Breast Cancer Polygenic Risk Score Validation and Effects of Variable Imputation

Breast cancer (BC) is a complex disease affecting one in eight women in the USA. Advances in population genomics have led to the development of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) with the potential to augment current risk models, but replication is often limited. We evaluated 2 robust PRSs with 313 and 3820 SNPs and the effects of multiple genotype imputation replications in BC cases and control populations. Biological samples from BC cases and cancer-free controls were drawn from three European ancestry cohorts. Genotyping on the Illumina Global Screening Array was followed by stringent quality control measures and 20 genotype imputation replications. A total of 468 unrelated cases and 4337 controls were scored, revealing significant differences in mean PRS percentiles between cases and controls (p < 0.001) for both SNP sets (313-SNP PRS: 52.81 and 48.07; 3820-SNP PRS: 55.45 and 49.81), with receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showing area under the curve values of 0.596 and 0.603 for the 313-SNP and 3820-SNP PRS, respectively. PRS fluctuations (from ~2-3% up to 9%) emerged across imputation iterations. Our study robustly reaffirms the predictive capacity of PRSs for BC by replicating their performance in an independent BC population and showcases the need to average imputed scores for reliable outcomes.

Implementation and implications for polygenic risk scores in healthcare

Increasing amounts of genetic data have led to the development of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for a variety of diseases. These scores, built from the summary statistics of genome-wide association studies (GWASs), are able to stratify individuals based on their genetic risk of developing various common diseases and could potentially be used to optimize the use of screening and preventative treatments and improve personalized care for patients. Many challenges are yet to be overcome, including PRS validation, healthcare professional and patient education, and healthcare systems integration. Ethical challenges are also present in how this information is used and the current lack of diverse populations with PRSs available. In this review, we discuss the topics above and cover the nature of PRSs, visualization schemes, and how PRSs can be improved. With these tools on the horizon for multiple diseases, scientists, clinicians, health systems, regulatory bodies, and the public should discuss the uses, benefits, and potential risks of PRSs.