Factors Associated With Premature Termination of Hyperacute Stroke Trials: A Review

BACKGROUND

We performed a review of acute stroke trials to determine features associated with premature termination of trial enrollment, defined by the authors as not meeting preplanned sample size.

METHODS AND RESULTS

MEDLINE was searched for randomized clinical stroke trials published in 9 major clinical journals between 2013 and 2022. We included randomized clinical trials that were phase 2 or 3 with a preplanned sample size ≥100 and a time-to-treatment within 24 hours of onset for transient ischemic attack, ischemic stroke, or intracerebral hemorrhage. Data were abstracted on trial features including trial design, inclusion criteria, imaging, location and number of sites, masking, treatment complexity, control group (standard therapy, placebo), industry involvement, and preplanned stopping rules (futility and efficacy). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to select the most important factors associated with premature termination; then, a multivariable logistic regression was fit including only the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator selected variables. Of 1475 studies assessed, 98 trials met eligibility criteria. Forty-five (46%) trials were prematurely terminated, of which 27% were stopped for benefit/efficacy, 20% for lack of money/slow enrollment, 18% for futility, 16% for newly available evidence, 17% for other reasons, and 4% due to harm. Complex trials (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.76 [95% CI, 1.13-7.49]), presence of a futility rule (aOR, 4.43 [95% CI, 1.62-17.91]), and exclusion of prestroke dependency (none/slight disability only; aOR, 2.19 [95% CI, 0.84-6.72] versus dependency allowed) were identified as the strongest predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly half of acute stroke trials were terminated prematurely. Broadening inclusion criteria and simplifying trial design may decrease the likelihood of unplanned termination, whereas planned futility analyses may appropriately terminate trials early, saving money and resources.

Rationale and Design of the Statins Use in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Patients (SATURN) Trial

INTRODUCTION

The benefits and risks of HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor (statin) drugs in survivors of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are unclear. Observational studies suggest an association between statin use and increased risk of lobar ICH, particularly in patients with apolipoprotein-E (APOE) ε2 and ε4 genotypes. There are no randomized controlled trials (RCTs) addressing the effects of statins after ICH leading to uncertainty as to whether statins should be used in patients with lobar ICH who are at high risk for ICH recurrence. The SATURN trial aims to evaluate the effects of continuation versus discontinuation of statin on the risk of ICH recurrence and ischemic major adverse cerebro-cardio-vascular events (MACCE) in patients with lobar ICH. Secondary aims include the assessment of whether the APOE genotype modifies the effects of statins on ICH recurrence, functional and cognitive outcomes and quality of life.

METHODS

The SATURN trial is a multi-center, pragmatic, prospective, randomized, open-label, Phase III clinical trial with blinded end-point assessment. A planned total of 1456 patients with lobar ICH will be recruited from 140 sites in the United States, Canada and Spain. Patients presenting within seven days of a spontaneous lobar ICH that occurred while taking a statin, will be randomized (1:1) to continuation (control) vs. discontinuation (intervention) of the same statin drug and dose that they were using at ICH onset. The primary outcome is the time to recurrent symptomatic ICH within a two-year follow-up period. The primary safety outcome is the occurrence of ischemic MACCE.

CONCLUSION

The results will help to determine the best strategy for statin use in survivors of lobar ICH and may help to identify if there is a subset of patients who would benefit from statins.

Tenecteplase for Stroke at 4.5 to 24 Hours with Perfusion-Imaging Selection

BACKGROUND

Thrombolytic agents, including tenecteplase, are generally used within 4.5 hours after the onset of stroke symptoms. Information on whether tenecteplase confers benefit beyond 4.5 hours is limited.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial involving patients with ischemic stroke to compare tenecteplase (0.25 mg per kilogram of body weight, up to 25 mg) with placebo administered 4.5 to 24 hours after the time that the patient was last known to be well. Patients had to have evidence of occlusion of the middle cerebral artery or internal carotid artery and salvageable tissue as determined on perfusion imaging. The primary outcome was the ordinal score on the modified Rankin scale (range, 0 to 6, with higher scores indicating greater disability and a score of 6 indicating death) at day 90. Safety outcomes included death and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage.

RESULTS

The trial enrolled 458 patients, 77.3% of whom subsequently underwent thrombectomy; 228 patients were assigned to receive tenecteplase, and 230 to receive placebo. The median time between the time the patient was last known to be well and randomization was approximately 12 hours in the tenecteplase group and approximately 13 hours in the placebo group. The median score on the modified Rankin scale at 90 days was 3 in each group. The adjusted common odds ratio for the distribution of scores on the modified Rankin scale at 90 days for tenecteplase as compared with placebo was 1.13 (95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.57; P = 0.45). In the safety population, mortality at 90 days was 19.7% in the tenecteplase group and 18.2% in the placebo group, and the incidence of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage was 3.2% and 2.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Tenecteplase therapy that was initiated 4.5 to 24 hours after stroke onset in patients with occlusions of the middle cerebral artery or internal carotid artery, most of whom had undergone endovascular thrombectomy, did not result in better clinical outcomes than those with placebo. The incidence of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage was similar in the two groups. (Funded by Genentech; TIMELESS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03785678.).

Apixaban to Prevent Recurrence After Cryptogenic Stroke in Patients With Atrial Cardiopathy: The ARCADIA Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Atrial cardiopathy is associated with stroke in the absence of clinically apparent atrial fibrillation. It is unknown whether anticoagulation, which has proven benefit in atrial fibrillation, prevents stroke in patients with atrial cardiopathy and no atrial fibrillation.

Objective

To compare anticoagulation vs antiplatelet therapy for secondary stroke prevention in patients with cryptogenic stroke and evidence of atrial cardiopathy.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Multicenter, double-blind, phase 3 randomized clinical trial of 1015 participants with cryptogenic stroke and evidence of atrial cardiopathy, defined as P-wave terminal force greater than 5000 μV × ms in electrocardiogram lead V1, serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level greater than 250 pg/mL, or left atrial diameter index of 3 cm/m2 or greater on echocardiogram. Participants had no evidence of atrial fibrillation at the time of randomization. Enrollment and follow-up occurred from February 1, 2018, through February 28, 2023, at 185 sites in the National Institutes of Health StrokeNet and the Canadian Stroke Consortium.

Interventions

Apixaban, 5 mg or 2.5 mg, twice daily (n = 507) vs aspirin, 81 mg, once daily (n = 508).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary efficacy outcome in a time-to-event analysis was recurrent stroke. All participants, including those diagnosed with atrial fibrillation after randomization, were analyzed according to the groups to which they were randomized. The primary safety outcomes were symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and other major hemorrhage.

Results

With 1015 of the target 1100 participants enrolled and mean follow-up of 1.8 years, the trial was stopped for futility after a planned interim analysis. The mean (SD) age of participants was 68.0 (11.0) years, 54.3% were female, and 87.5% completed the full duration of follow-up. Recurrent stroke occurred in 40 patients in the apixaban group (annualized rate, 4.4%) and 40 patients in the aspirin group (annualized rate, 4.4%) (hazard ratio, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.64-1.55]). Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage occurred in 0 patients taking apixaban and 7 patients taking aspirin (annualized rate, 1.1%). Other major hemorrhages occurred in 5 patients taking apixaban (annualized rate, 0.7%) and 5 patients taking aspirin (annualized rate, 0.8%) (hazard ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.29-3.52]).

Conclusions and Relevance

In patients with cryptogenic stroke and evidence of atrial cardiopathy without atrial fibrillation, apixaban did not significantly reduce recurrent stroke risk compared with aspirin.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03192215.

Usage of mineralocorticoids and isotonic crystalloids in subarachnoid hemorrhage patients in the United States

BACKGROUND

The usage rates of mineralocorticoids (fludrocortisone) to treat hyponatremia and isotonic crystalloids (saline and balanced crystalloids) to maintain intravascular volume in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) patients across the United States are unknown.

METHODS

We surveyed National Institute of Neurologic Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) StrokeNet sites in 2023, which are mostly large, tertiary, academic centers, and analyzed subarachnoid hemorrhage encounters from 2010 to 2020 in the Premier Healthcare Database that is representative of all types of hospitals and captures about 20 % of all acute inpatient care in the United States.

RESULTS

Although mineralocorticoids are used by 70 % of the NINDS StrokeNet sites, it is used in less than 20 % of the aSAH encounters in the Premier Database. Although saline is ubiquitously used, balanced crystalloids are increasingly used for fluid therapy in aSAH patients. Its use in the NINDS StrokeNet sites and the Premier Healthcare Database is 41 and 45 %, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of mineralocorticoids remains low, and balanced crystalloids are increasingly used as fluid therapy in aSAH patients. The effectiveness of mineralocorticoids and balanced crystalloids in improving outcomes for aSAH patients must be rigorously tested in randomized clinical trials.

Temporal Trends in Public Stroke Knowledge, 1995-2021

BACKGROUND

Outreach campaigns have sought to reduce the burden of stroke by improving knowledge of stroke risk factors (RF) and warning signs (WS). We describe trends in stroke knowledge from 1995 to 2021.

METHODS

From 1995 to 2021, 6 separate surveys were conducted in the Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Region. Temporal trends in RF/WS knowledge were analyzed using logistic regression adjusting for Race, sex, age, and education.

RESULTS

In 1995, 28.6% of participants (537/1880) could name ≥2 WS, compared with 50.6% (983/1944) in 2021 (trend P<0.0001 after adjustment). In 1995, 44.5% of participants (836/1880) knew ≥2 RF, compared with 56.7% (1103/1944) in 2021 (trend P<0.0001 after adjustment). Although still improved compared with 1995, fewer participants could identify ≥2 RF in 2021 (1103/1944, 56.7%) when compared with 2011 (1287/2036, 63.2%, pairwise P<0.05). This decline in RF knowledge was disproportionately larger in women (odds ratio of 0.67 for knowledge in 2021 compared with 2011 in females, P=0.047 for the interaction between sex and study year).

CONCLUSIONS

Although stroke knowledge has overall improved since 1995, there is evidence for lost gains since 2011, particularly in women. Stroke outreach campaigns need ongoing evaluation.

Exploring Hematoma Expansion Shift With Recombinant Factor VIIa: A Pooled Analysis of 4 Randomized Controlled Trials

BACKGROUND

Hematoma expansion shift (HES) analysis can be used to assess the biological effect of a hemostatic therapy for intracerebral hemorrhage. In this study, we applied HES analysis to individual patient data from 4 randomized controlled trials evaluating rFVIIa (recombinant factor VIIa) 80 μg/kg to placebo.

METHODS

We generated polychotomous strata of HES using absolute growth thresholds (≤0/<6/≥6 mL) and quintiles of percent volume change. The relationship between treatment and HES was assessed using proportional odds models. Differences in subgroups based on baseline volume (≥ or <20 mL), and time from symptom onset to treatment (≤ or >2 hours) were explored with testing for interactions.

RESULTS

The primary analysis included 721 patients. At 24 hours, 36% (134/369) of rFVIIa-treated patients exhibited no hematoma expansion as compared with 25% of placebo (88/352)-treated patients. Significant expansion (≥6 mL) was reduced by 10% in those treated with rFVIIa-(adjusted common odds ratio [acOR], 0.57 [95% CI, 0.43-0.75]). An examination of percent change similarly showed a shift across the spectrum of expansion (acOR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.47-0.80]). In both groups, mild-to-moderate expansion was observed in 38% to 47% of patients, depending on the threshold used. Differences in absolute HES between the rFVIIa and placebo groups were more pronounced in patients with baseline hemorrhage volumes ≥20 mL (acOR, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.30-0.76] versus <20 mL: acOR, 0.67 [95% CI, 0.47-0.95]; Pinteraction=0.02). No treatment interaction in patients treated within 2 or after 2 hours from onset was observed (acOR, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.19-0.91 versus >2 hours: acOR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.44-0.79]; Pinteraction=0.30).

CONCLUSIONS

The association between rFVIIa and hematoma growth arrest is most pronounced in patients with larger baseline volumes but is evident across the full spectrum of treated patients.

Enhancing Enrollment in Acute Stroke Trials: Current State and Consensus Recommendations

The Stroke Treatment Academic Industry Roundtable (STAIR) convened a session and workshop regarding enrollment in acute stroke trials during the STAIR XII meeting on March 22, 2023. This forum brought together stroke physicians and researchers, members of the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, industry representatives, and members of the US Food and Drug Administration to discuss the current status and opportunities for improving enrollment in acute stroke trials. The workshop identified the most relevant issues impacting enrollment in acute stroke trials and addressed potential action items for each. Focus areas included emergency consent in the United States and other countries; careful consideration of eligibility criteria to maximize enrollment and representativeness; investigator, study coordinator, and pharmacist availability outside of business hours; trial enthusiasm/equipoise; site start-up including contractual issues; site champions; incorporation of study procedures into standard workflow as much as possible; centralized enrollment at remote sites by study teams using telemedicine; global trials; and coenrollment in trials when feasible. In conclusion, enrollment of participants is the lifeblood of acute stroke trials and is the rate-limiting step for testing an exciting array of new approaches to improve patient outcomes. In particular, efforts should be undertaken to broaden the medical community's understanding and implementation of emergency consent procedures and to adopt designs and processes that are easily incorporated into standard workflow and that improve trials' efficiencies and execution. Research and actions to improve enrollment in ongoing and future trials will improve stroke outcomes more broadly than any single therapy under consideration.

Usage of Mineralocorticoids and Isotonic Crystalloids in Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Patients in the United States

Background

The usage rates of mineralocorticoids (fludrocortisone) to treat hyponatremia and isotonic crystalloids (saline and balanced crystalloids) to maintain intravascular volume in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) patients across the United States are unknown.

Methods

We surveyed National Institute of Neurologic Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) StrokeNet sites, which are mostly large, tertiary, academic centers, and analyzed subarachnoid hemorrhage encounters in the Premier Healthcare Database that is representative of all types of hospitals and captures about 20% of all acute inpatient care in the United States.

Results

Although mineralocorticoids are used by 70% of the NINDS StrokeNet sites in aSAH patients, it is used in less than 25% of the aSAH encounters in the Premier Database. Although saline is ubiquitously used, balanced crystalloids are increasingly used for fluid therapy in aSAH patients. Its use in the NINDS StrokeNet sites and the Premier Healthcare Database is 41% and 45%, respectively.

Conclusions

The use of mineralocorticoids remains low, and balanced crystalloids are increasingly used as fluid therapy in aSAH patients. The effectiveness of mineralocorticoids and balanced crystalloids in improving outcomes for aSAH patients must be rigorously tested in randomized clinical trials.

Optimal Randomization Designs for Large Multicenter Clinical Trials: From the National Institutes of Health Stroke Trials Network Funded by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke Experience

From 2016 to 2021, the National Institutes of Health Stroke Trials Network funded by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke initiated ten multicenter randomized controlled clinical trials. Optimal subject randomization designs are demanded with 4 critical properties: (1) protection of treatment assignment randomness, (2) achievement of the desired treatment allocation ratio, (3) balancing of baseline covariates, and (4) ease of implementation. For acute stroke trials, it is necessary to minimize the time between eligibility assessment and treatment initiation. This article reviews the randomization designs for 3 trials currently enrolling in Stroke Trials Network funded by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, the SATURN (Statins in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Trial), the MOST (Multiarm Optimization of Stroke Thrombolysis Trial), and the FASTEST (Recombinant Factor VIIa for Hemorrhagic Stroke Trial). Randomization methods utilized in these trials include minimal sufficient balance, block urn design, big stick design, and step-forward randomization. Their advantages and limitations are reviewed and compared with traditional stratified permuted block design and minimization.

Using Epidemiological Data to Inform Clinical Trial Feasibility Assessments: A Case Study

BACKGROUND

Clinical trial enrollment and completion is challenging, with nearly half of all trials not being completed or not completed on time. In 2014, the National Institutes of Health StrokeNet in collaboration with stroke epidemiologists from GCNKSS (Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Stroke Study) began providing proposed clinical trials with formal trial feasibility assessments. Herein, we describe the process of prospective feasibility analyses using epidemiological data that can be used to improve enrollment and increase the likelihood a trial is completed.

METHODS

In 2014, DEFUSE 3 (Endovascular Therapy Following Imaging Evaluation for Ischemic Stroke 3) trialists, National Institutes of Health StrokeNet, and stroke epidemiologists from GCNKSS collaborated to evaluate the initial inclusion/exclusion criteria for the DEFUSE 3 study. Trial criteria were discussed and an assessment was completed to evaluate the percent of the stroke population that might be eligible for the study. The DEFUSE 3 trial was stopped early with the publication of DAWN (Thrombectomy 6 to 24 Hours After Stroke With a Mismatch Between Deficit and Infarct), and the Wilcoxon rank-sum statistic was used to analyze whether the trial would have been stopped had the proposed changes not been made, following the DEFUSE 3 statistical analysis plan.

RESULTS

After initial epidemiological analysis, 2.4% of patients with acute stroke in the GCNKSS population would have been predicted to be eligible for the study. After discussion with primary investigators and modifying 4 key exclusion criteria (upper limit of age increased to 90 years, baseline modified Rankin Scale broadened to 0-2, time since last well expanded to 16 hours, and decreased lower limit of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score to <6), the number predicted to be eligible for the trial increased to 4%. At the time of trial conclusion, 57% of the enrolled patients qualified only by the modified criteria, and the trial was stopped at an interim analysis that demonstrated efficacy. We estimated that the Wilcoxon rank-sum value for the unadjusted predicted enrollment would not have crossed the threshold for efficacy and the trial not stopped.

CONCLUSIONS

Objectively assessing trial inclusion/exclusion criteria using a population-based resource in a collaborative and iterative process including epidemiologists can lead to improved recruitment and can increase the likelihood of successful trial completion.

Effects of intensive blood pressure lowering on cerebral ischaemia in thrombolysed patients: insights from the ENCHANTED trial

Background

Intensive blood pressure lowering may adversely affect evolving cerebral ischaemia. We aimed to determine whether intensive blood pressure lowering altered the size of cerebral infarction in the 2196 patients who participated in the Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study, an international randomised controlled trial of intensive (systolic target 130-140 mm Hg within 1 h; maintained for 72 h) or guideline-recommended (systolic target <180 mm Hg) blood pressure management in patients with hypertension (systolic blood pressure >150 mm Hg) after thrombolysis treatment for acute ischaemic stroke between March 3, 2012 and April 30, 2018.

Methods

All available brain imaging were analysed centrally by expert readers. Log-linear regression was used to determine the effects of intensive blood pressure lowering on the size of cerebral infarction, with adjustment for potential confounders. The primary analysis pertained to follow-up computerised tomography (CT) scans done between 24 and 36 h. Sensitivity analysis were undertaken in patients with only a follow-up magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and either MRI or CT at 24-36 h, and in patients with any brain imaging done at any time during follow-up. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01422616.

Findings

There were 1477 (67.3%) patients (mean age 67.7 [12.1] y; male 60%, Asian 65%) with available follow-up brain imaging for analysis, including 635 patients with a CT done at 24-36 h. Mean achieved systolic blood pressures over 1-24 h were 141 mm Hg and 149 mm Hg in the intensive group and guideline group, respectively. There was no effect of intensive blood pressure lowering on the median size (ml) of cerebral infarction on follow-up CT at 24-36 h (0.3 [IQR 0.0-16.6] in the intensive group and 0.9 [0.0-12.5] in the guideline group; log Δmean -0.17, 95% CI -0.78 to 0.43). The results were consistent in sensitivity and subgroup analyses.

Interpretation

Intensive blood pressure lowering treatment to a systolic target <140 mm Hg within several hours after the onset of symptoms may not increase the size of cerebral infarction in patients who receive thrombolysis treatment for acute ischaemic stroke of mild to moderate neurological severity.

Funding

National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; UK Stroke Association; UK Dementia Research Institute; Ministry of Health and the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development of Brazil; Ministry for Health, Welfare, and Family Affairs of South Korea; Takeda.

Changing Trends in Demographics, Risk Factors, and Clinical Features of Patients With Infective Endocarditis-Related Stroke, 2005-2015

BACKGROUND

There is a rising incidence of infective endocarditis-related stroke (IERS) in the United States attributed to the opioid epidemic. A contemporary epidemiologic description is necessary to understand the impact of the opioid epidemic on clinical characteristics of IERS. We describe and analyze trends in the demographics, risk factors, and clinical features of IERS.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study within a biracial population of 1.3 million in the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region. All hospitalized patients with hemorrhagic or ischemic stroke were identified and physician verified from the 2005, 2010, and 2015 calendar years using ICD-9 and -10 codes. IERS was defined as an acute stroke attributed to infective endocarditis meeting modified Duke Criteria for possible or definite endocarditis. Unadjusted comparison of demographics, risk factors, outcome, and clinical characteristics was performed between each study period for IERS and non-IERS. An adjusted model to compare trends used Cochran-Armitage test for categorical variables and a general linear model or a Kruskal-Wallis test for numerical variables. Examination for interaction of endocarditis status in trends was performed using a general linear or logistic model.

RESULTS

A total of 54 patients with IERS and 8204 without IERS were identified during the study periods. Between 2005 and 2015, there was a decline in rates of hypertension (91.7% vs 36.0%; p=0.0005) and increased intravenous drug users (IVDU) (8.3% vs 44.0%; p=0.02) in the IERS cohort. The remainder of the stroke population demonstrated a significant rise in hypertension, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, and peri-operative stroke. Infective endocarditis status significantly interacted with the trend in hypertension prevalence (p=0.001).

CONCLUSION

From 2005 to 2015, infective endocarditis-related stroke was increasingly associated with intravenous drug use and fewer risk factors, specifically hypertension. These trends likely reflect the demographics of the opioid epidemic, which has affected younger patients with fewer comorbidities.Non-standard Abbreviations and Acronyms IERS: infective endocarditis-related stroke; IVDU: intravenous drug users; GCNKSS: Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study; NIHSS: National Institute of Health Stroke Scale; tPA: tissue plasminogen activator.

Abstract WP176: Prior TIAs Among Patients With Ischemic Stroke In The Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study (GCNKSS)

Background: TIAs serve as an opportunity to identify and modify risk factors and to prevent future events. Given known epidemiologic differences in strokes by race and sex, our objective was to investigate the rates of prior TIAs among those with incident ischemic stroke (IS) in the GCNKSS.

Methods: We included all physician adjudicated, incident IS among adults age ≥20 years in the GCNKSS, a population-based stroke surveillance study in a 5-county region of southern Ohio/ northern Kentucky, in 2005, 2010, and 2015. We calculated the frequency of cases in which a TIA (sudden onset of focal neurologic symptoms lasting ≤ 24 hours) was documented in the 365 days prior to IS. Frequencies and proportions of prior TIA were compared by sex, race, and age, and location at which patients sought care for their TIA was described. Finally, multivariable logistic regression was performed to investigate demographic and clinical predictors of cases in which TIA preceded stroke; covariates were chosen a priori.

Results: We included 5310 IS events; mean age was 69.7 (SD 14.8) years, 54.7% were female, and 20.4% were Black. A total of 351 patients (6.6%) had a documented TIA the year preceding their IS. Overall, 42.2% did not seek care for their TIA, 21.6% called 911 and/or came to the ED, 6.0% saw a PCP, and 6.6% sought other care. In 22.5% of cases, location of care was unknown. In adjusted results, older age, female sex, history of hypertension, and CAD were associated with having had a prior TIA, while Black race was not. NIHSS was inversely associated with prior TIA (Table). Prior TIAs were similar between study years.

Conclusions: We conservatively estimate that ≥ 6% of patients with first-ever IS had a TIA in the preceding year, though underreporting is likely. Many patients did not report seeking care for the TIA, suggesting missed opportunities for risk factor modification. Further research is needed to understand the implications of sex and race differences in frequencies of prior TIA.

Recruitment in Acute Stroke Trials: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Randomized clinical trials of acute stroke have led to major advances in acute stroke therapy over the past decade. Despite these successes, recruitment in acute trials is often difficult. We outline challenges in recruitment for acute stroke trials and present potential solutions, which can increase the speed and decrease the cost of identifying new treatments for acute stroke. One of the largest opportunities to increase the speed of enrollment and make trials more generalizable is expansion of inclusion criteria whose impact on expected recruitment can be assessed by epidemiologic and registry databases. Another barrier to recruitment besides the number of eligible patients is availability of study investigators limited to business hours, which may be helped by financial support for after-hours call. The wider use of telemedicine has accelerated quicker stroke treatment at many hospitals and has the potential to accelerate research enrollment but requires training of clinical investigators who are often inexperienced with this approach. Other potential solutions to enhance recruitment include rapid prehospital notification of clinical investigators of potential patients, use of mobile stroke units, advances in the process of emergency informed consent, storage of study medication in the emergency department, simplification of study treatments and data collection, education of physicians to improve equipoise and enthusiasm for randomization of patients within a trial, and clear recruitment plans, and even potentially coenrollment, when there are competing trials at sites. Without successful recruitment, scientific advances and clinical benefit for acute stroke patients will lag.

Abstract WMP5: How Do Clinical Trial Exclusion Criteria Impact The Inclusivity Of Clinical Trials?

Intro: Enrolling women and under-represented minorities into clinical trials is a top priority for the stroke community. Common trial exclusions for medical conditions or demographics may negatively impact enrollment for these groups. We sought to describe the potential impact that various exclusion criteria have on trial eligibility of ischemic stroke (IS) patients by race and sex within the large, biracial Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Stroke Study (GCNKSS) population.

Methods: The GCNKSS is a population-based study of 1.3 million people living in a 5-county area of southern Ohio/ Northern Kentucky. During 7/1/14-12/31/15 for blacks, and 2015 for whites, we captured all hospitalized ischemic strokes by screening ICD-9 codes 430-436 and ICD10 codes I60-I68, and G45-46. Commonly used exclusion criteria from stroke clinical trials were applied to the GCNKSS IS population, and were compared by sex and race. All comparisons were evaluated with chi-square test and corrected for multiple comparisons, as necessary.

Results: In 2014-2015, there were 2806 ischemic stroke patients, which were 53% female, and 30% black. Table 1 presents common clinical trial exclusion criteria and the % excluded among IS patients, stratified by sex and race. Every trial exclusion evaluated had significant differences by sex, race, or both.

Discussion: Within our population, we found that commonly-used age and disability clinical trial exclusion criteria exclude more women than men, and exclusion of milder strokes affects more men than women. Blood pressure, renal function, and early arrival time criteria exclude more blacks than whites, while older age exclude more whites than blacks. Optimal clinical trial design should be informed by epidemiology data to ensure representation of underrepresented populations in clinical trials. We will continue to provide epidemiology feedback on acute trial exclusion criteria to NIH StrokeNet proposals in the future.

Abstract TP11: Acute Stroke Randomized Clinical Trials: What Factors Help Trials Achieve Their Intended Sample Size?

Background: We performed a systematic review of acute stroke trials to determine features associated with premature termination of trial enrollment.

Methods: MEDLINE was searched for stroke RCTs between 1/1/2013-6/11/2020. Included studies were Phase 2 or 3, had a preplanned sample size ≥100, had time to treatment within 24 hours of onset for TIA, ischemic stroke, or ICH, and were published in a major clinical journal (BMJ, Circulation, Stroke, Neurology, JAMA, JAMA Neurology, Lancet, Lancet Neurology, NEJM). Studies were deemed prematurely terminated if authors reported early termination. Study variables and inclusion criteria are listed in Table 1. Complex trials required specialized training and expertise, high degree of monitoring, or procedural intervention. Univariate Chi-square tests/Fisher’s exact test were used to determine characteristics associated with early termination, and multivariable lasso logistic regression was used to select the most important predictors.

Results: Of 1,219 studies assessed, 69 trials met eligibility criteria for inclusion (Table 1); 34 (49%) were prematurely terminated. In univariate analysis, variables associated with premature termination were complexity of treatment, industry involvement, exclusion of older patients, and presence of a futility stopping rule. In lasso regression, complex treatment trials (OR 3.77, 95% CI 1.30-10.97, versus moderate or simple trials combined), presence of a futility rule (OR 3.56, 95% CI 1.02-12.40 versus no rule), and geographic region (North America OR 1.97, 95% CI 0.57-6.81 versus all other regions combined) were selected as important factors.

Conclusion: Half of acute stroke trials were terminated prematurely. Broadening inclusion/exclusion criteria and simplifying the complexity of trials may decrease the likelihood of unplanned premature termination, whereas planned futility analyses may appropriately terminate trials early, saving money and resources.

Abstract WP47: Telemedicine And Remote Research Practice Use In Clinical Trials Among StrokeNet Sites

Background: A hybrid of remote and in-person conduct of research may improve recruitment and retention rates in clinical trials. However, little is known about the current state of remote research practices (RRPs) in stroke trials. Our objective was to characterize the use of telemedicine and RRPs among sites, including Regional Coordinating Centers (RCCs), within NIH StrokeNet.

Methods: All NIH StrokeNet clinical sites were sent a standardized questionnaire surveying their voluntary adoption of telemedicine and RRPs in stroke clinical trial recruitment both locally and remotely at affiliated stroke hospitals. The survey was distributed to attendees of the spring StrokeNet conference. The survey results are described using descriptive statistics.

Results: Overall, 39 StrokeNet sites (16 RCCs [64.0%]) responded to the survey between April 2022 and July 2022. Thirty-one sites (79.5%) used telemedicine in clinical trials in the following settings: outpatient (66.7%), Emergency Department (46.2%), and inpatient (41.0%). Telemedicine was most commonly utilized for follow-up assessment (51.3%), trial screening (43.6%), obtaining informed consent (43.6%), and guiding the study intervention (33.3%). Reported rates of electronic informed consent use was as follows: 30 sites (76.9%) for acute stroke trials, 22 (56.4%) for secondary stroke prevention trials, and 15 (38.4%) for stroke recovery trials. Only 9 sites (23.1%) reported remotely enrolling patients at affiliated telestroke hospitals and 8 sites (20.5%) initiated study interventions remotely.

Conclusions: Telemedicine and e-consent were used at many responding StrokeNet clinical trial sites. Future research is needed to understand the added value of telemedicine and RRPs in clinical research, barriers to adoption, and ideal future state.

Abstract 71: Temporal Trends In 30-day And 5-year Stroke Case Fatality Rates

Background: Previous studies spanning the 1990s-2010s have inconsistently identified a decline in 30-day stroke case-fatality rate (CFR), and little is known about trends in longer term stroke CFR over that period. We studied temporal trends in 30-day and 5-year CFRs in the well-defined Greater Cincinnati/Norther Kentucky (GCNK) stroke population.

Methods: The NIH-funded GCNK Stroke Study is a population-based study conducted in a 5-county region that is representative of the USA in terms of Black race, income, and education. The study ascertained all strokes in 1993/4, 1999, 2005, 2010, and 2015 using well-validated methods. All stroke subtypes were included: ischemic strokes (IS), intracerebral hemorrhages (ICH), and subarachnoid hemorrhages (SAHs). Deaths were identified via the National Death Index. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess all-cause fatality, by subtype, to examine temporal trends adjusting for age, sex, and race.

Results: A total of 10372 stroke cases were ascertained over the five study periods (8428 IS, 443 SAH, and 1501 ICH). IS patients did not demonstrate a decline in 30-day CFRs over time, but did show a nonsignificant decrease in 5-year CFR. Among IS patients, female sex was associated with a lower 5-year CFR, whereas Black individuals had a lower 30-day CFR but a higher 5-year CFR. For ICH, there was a small increase in both 30-day and 5-year CFR in later study periods, although this did not reach significance in all years. SAH showed a lower 30-day CFR over time but no change in 5-year CFR. Older age was associated with a higher 30-day and 5-year CFR in all subtypes.

Discussion: Despite widespread advances in post-stroke care, adjusted 5-year CFR has not clearly improved for any stroke subtype and may have slightly worsened for ICH. 30-day CFR has shown a modest improvement among SAH patients. Future studies should investigate why Black individuals with IS experience lower early CFR but a higher late CFR.

Abstract WMP107: Temporal Trends In Public Awareness Of Stroke: 1996-2021

Background: Knowledge of stroke risk factors (RF) and warning signs (WS) may improve adherence to primary stroke prevention and encourage more rapid presentation after symptom onset. As a result, improving stroke knowledge has been a major public health focus. We sought to study trends in stroke knowledge between 1996 and 2021 in a well-defined population.

Methods: Surveys were conducted in 1996, 2000, 2005, 2011, 2016, and 2021 in the 5-county Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky region, a population of 1.3 million that reflects the USA in terms of Black race, income, and educational attainment. Respondents were selected to reflect the age, race and sex distribution of the local ischemic stroke population. Potential subjects were contacted using random-digit dialing (with adjustment for cell phone use after 2005) and asked open-ended questions regarding stroke WS and RF knowledge. Correct answers for all years were determined based upon current AHA guidelines and public health messaging. Trends in knowledge were then evaluated over time adjusting for age, Race, sex, and education. Multiple logistic regression models and a cumulative model were used for analysis.

Results: Over the 25-year period, 12,322 surveys were completed. After adjustment for age, sex, Race, and education, RF and WS knowledge significantly increased between 1996 and 2021 (P<0.0001), but this was not consistent across years (Figure). The percentage of participants that could identify at least two WS improved significantly in 2000 and then again in 2011. Stroke WS knowledge was then stagnant in 2016 and worsened slightly in 2021. Knowledge of at least two RFs steadily improved from 1996 to 2011, but then declined modestly in 2016 and was stagnant in 2021.

Discussion: While stroke RF and WS knowledge has overall improved since 1996, knowledge remains suboptimal and some gains may have been lost in recent years. More research on the most effective methods for improving stroke awareness is needed.

Disentangling the Association Between Neurologic Deficits, Patient-Reported Impairments, and Quality of Life After Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

-The EuroQol 5-Dimension Self-Reported Questionnaire (EQ-5D) is a well-established instrument to assess quality of life and generates generic utility values for health states reported by patients, derived from assessments by the general public. We hypothesized that language problems and other non-motor deficits are not captured as well as motor deficits by this system. We aimed to quantify the association between disabling neurological deficits and the EQ-5D dimension scores and the utility score in patients with ischemic stroke.

METHODS

-We used data of the Interventional Management of Stroke III trial. Missing data were imputed by multiple imputation. The association between neurological deficits (individual National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS] item scores) and EQ-5D-3L (five three-level dimension scores and utility score) at 90 days was assessed with ordinal logistic regression and Tobit regression, respectively. The explained variance of each model was estimated with Nagelkerke's pseudo-R² or R².

RESULTS

-In total, 525 surviving patients were included. Complete data on both the NIHSS and EQ-5D was available for 481/525 (91.6%) patients. At 90 days, 161/491 (32.8%) patients had aphasia and 226/491 (46.0%) patients had paresis of at least one limb. Limb paresis, facial palsy, sensory loss, and dysarthria explained most of the variance in all EQ-5D dimension scores and the utility score. In the utility score, 8.9% of the variance was explained by neglect, 10.0% by aphasia, 10.8% by hemianopia, and 17.5%-24.1% by limb paresis.

DISCUSSION

The impact of neurological deficits on the EQ-5D in patients with ischemic stroke is mostly due to limb paresis, while the EQ-5D is less sensitive to other non-motor deficits such as hemianopia, aphasia, and neglect. This may lead to overestimation of quality of life and, consequently, underestimation of the (cost-)effectiveness of treatments and interventions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION

URL: http://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov. Unique identifier: NCT00359424.

Substance Use and Performance of Toxicology Screens in the Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study

BACKGROUND

Though stroke risk factors such as substance use may vary with age, less is known about trends in substance use over time or about performance of toxicology screens in young adults with stroke.

METHODS

Using the Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study, a population-based study in a 5-county region comprising 1.3 million people, we reported the frequency of documented substance use (cocaine/marijuana/opiates/other) obtained from electronic medical record review, overall and by race/gender subgroups among physician-adjudicated stroke events (ischemic and hemorrhagic) in adults 20 to 54 years of age. Secondary analyses included heavy alcohol use and cigarette smoking. Data were reported for 5 one-year periods spanning 22 years (1993/1994-2015), and trends over time were tested. For 2015, to evaluate factors associated with performance of toxicology screens, multiple logistic regression was performed.

RESULTS

Overall, 2152 strokes were included: 74.5% were ischemic, mean age was 45.7±7.6, 50.0% were women, and 35.9% were Black. Substance use was documented in 4.4%, 10.4%, 19.2%, 24.0%, and 28.8% of cases in 1993/1994, 1999, 2005, 2010, and 2015, respectively (Ptrend<0.001). Between 1993/1994 and 2015, documented substance use increased in all demographic subgroups. Adjusting for gender, comorbidities, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, predictors of toxicology screens included Black race (adjusted odds ratio, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.02-2.45]), younger age (adjusted odds ratio, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.53-0.91], per 10 years), current smoking (adjusted odds ratio, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.06-2.46]), and treatment at an academic hospital (adjusted odds ratio, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.14-2.84]). After adding chart-reported substance use to the model, only chart-reported substance abuse and age were significant.

CONCLUSIONS

In a population-based study of young adults with stroke, documented substance use increased over time, and documentation of substance use was higher among Black compared with White individuals. Further work is needed to confirm race-based disparities and trends in substance use given the potential for bias in screening and documentation. Findings suggest a need for more standardized toxicology screening.

Blinding of outcome assessors and its association with outcome in a randomized open-label stroke trial

Background-It is challenging for outcome assessors to remain blinded during outcome assessment in trials with prospective randomized open blinded endpoint (PROBE) design. If assessors are able to guess the correct treatment allocation more often than expected based on chance, the assessors may have been not properly blinded.Aims-We aimed to assess blinding of outcome assessors in a stroke trial with PROBE design and its association with outcome.Methods-We used data of the IMS III trial. The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 90 days was assessed by local assessors who were unaware of treatment allocation. To assess success of blinding, each assessor was asked to guess the patient's treatment allocation. We assessed whether the percentage of correct guesses was higher than chance (i.e., 50%). The association between correctly guessed treatment allocation and the mRS at 90 days was analyzed with ordinal logistic regression stratified by treatment allocation. We tested for interaction of correctly versus incorrectly guessed treatment allocation with actual treatment allocation on the mRS. Patients with missing data on guessed treatment allocation and patients who died prior to 90-day assessment were excluded.Results-In total, 459 patients were included in this study. The assessors guessed the correct treatment allocation significantly more often than expected (267/459, 58.2%, one-sided p=0.0003). Correctly guessed treatment allocations were associated with better mRS scores in the intervention group (cOR:2.28, 95% CI:1.50-3.48) and with worse mRS scores in the control group (cOR:0.47, 95% CI:0.27-0.83) (Pinteraction<0.001).Conclusions-Assessors may not always be truly blinded for treatment allocation in clinical trials and their guesses may be associated with outcome. Although causality between the assessors' guess and patient outcome cannot be determined, future trials with subjective outcome should make efforts to ensure blinding and should report their blinding method and the success of blinding like the IMS III trial.Clinical Trial Registration-URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00359424.

Intracranial Aneurysm Classifier Using Phenotypic Factors: An International Pooled Analysis

Intracranial aneurysms (IAs) are usually asymptomatic with a low risk of rupture, but consequences of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) are severe. Identifying IAs at risk of rupture has important clinical and socio-economic consequences. The goal of this study was to assess the effect of patient and IA characteristics on the likelihood of IA being diagnosed incidentally versus ruptured. Patients were recruited at 21 international centers. Seven phenotypic patient characteristics and three IA characteristics were recorded. The analyzed cohort included 7992 patients. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that: (1) IA location is the strongest factor associated with IA rupture status at diagnosis; (2) Risk factor awareness (hypertension, smoking) increases the likelihood of being diagnosed with unruptured IA; (3) Patients with ruptured IAs in high-risk locations tend to be older, and their IAs are smaller; (4) Smokers with ruptured IAs tend to be younger, and their IAs are larger; (5) Female patients with ruptured IAs tend to be older, and their IAs are smaller; (6) IA size and age at rupture correlate. The assessment of associations regarding patient and IA characteristics with IA rupture allows us to refine IA disease models and provide data to develop risk instruments for clinicians to support personalized decision-making.

Migraine-Associated Common Genetic Variants Confer Greater Risk of Posterior vs. Anterior Circulation Ischemic Stroke☆

OBJECTIVE

To examine potential genetic relationships between migraine and the two distinct phenotypes posterior circulation ischemic stroke (PCiS) and anterior circulation ischemic stroke (ACiS), we generated migraine polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and compared these between PCiS and ACiS, and separately vs. non-stroke control subjects.

METHODS

Acute ischemic stroke cases were classified as PCiS or ACiS based on lesion location on diffusion-weighted MRI. Exclusion criteria were lesions in both vascular territories or uncertain territory; supratentorial PCiS with ipsilateral fetal posterior cerebral artery; and cases with atrial fibrillation. We generated migraine PRS for three migraine phenotypes (any migraine; migraine without aura; migraine with aura) using publicly available GWAS data and compared mean PRSs separately for PCiS and ACiS vs. non-stroke control subjects, and between each stroke phenotype.

RESULTS

Our primary analyses included 464 PCiS and 1079 ACiS patients with genetic European ancestry. Compared to non-stroke control subjects (n=15396), PRSs of any migraine were associated with increased risk of PCiS (p=0.01-0.03) and decreased risk of ACiS (p=0.010-0.039). Migraine without aura PRSs were significantly associated with PCiS (p=0.008-0.028), but not with ACiS. When comparing PCiS vs. ACiS directly, migraine PRSs were higher in PCiS vs. ACiS for any migraine (p=0.001-0.010) and migraine without aura (p=0.032-0.048). Migraine with aura PRS did not show a differential association in our analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest a stronger genetic overlap between unspecified migraine and migraine without aura with PCiS compared to ACiS. Possible shared mechanisms include dysregulation of cerebral vessel endothelial function.

Recombinant factor VIIa for hemorrhagic stroke treatment at earliest possible time (FASTEST): Protocol for a phase III, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Intracerebral hemorrhage is the deadliest form of stroke. Hematoma expansion, growth of the hematoma between the baseline computed tomography scan and a follow-up computed tomography scan at 24 ± 6 h, predicts long-term disability or death. Recombinant factor VIIa (rFVIIa) has reduced hematoma expansion in previous clinical trials with a variable effect on clinical outcomes, with the greatest impact on hematoma expansion and potential benefit when administered within 2 h of symptom onset.

METHODS

Factor VIIa for Hemorrhagic Stroke Treatment at Earliest Possible Time (FASTEST, NCT03496883) is a randomized controlled trial that will enroll 860 patients at ∼100 emergency departments and mobile stroke units in five countries. Patients are eligible for enrollment if they have acute intracerebral hemorrhage within 2 h of symptom onset confirmed by computed tomography, a hematoma volume of 2 to 60 mL, no or small volumes of intraventricular hemorrhage, do not take anticoagulant medications or concurrent heparin/heparinoids (antiplatelet medications are permissible), and are not deeply comatose. Enrolled patients will receive rFVIIa 80 µg/kg or placebo intravenously over 2 min. The primary outcome measure is the distribution of the ordinal modified Rankin Scale at 180 days. FASTEST is monitored by a Data Safety Monitoring Board. Safety endpoints include thrombotic events (e.g. myocardial infarction). Human subjects research is monitored by an external Institutional Review Board in participating countries.

DISCUSSION

In the US, FASTEST will be first NIH StrokeNet Trial with an Exception from Informed Consent which allows enrollment of non-communicative patients without an immediately identifiable proxy.

Abstract WP251: Long Term Outcome Prediction After Ischemic Stroke Using Gene Expression

Objective: Prediction of the long-term outcome in Ischemic Stroke (IS) patients can have a significant impact on design of clinical trials and on patients’ care. We studied gene expression (GE) as a novel biomarker to provide an accurate prediction of 90-day outcome in IS patients.

Methods: RNA from 72 samples from 2 peripheral blood draws (at ≤3 and 24 hrs post IS onset) was analyzed on Affymetrix U133 Plus 2.0 microarrays. These represented samples from 36 CLEAR trial IS patients that had blood drawn within 3 hrs of stroke onset and were then treated with tPA with or without eptifibatide. The samples were split into derivation (n=25) and validation (n=11) sets. We identified the differential GE in blood at 24 hrs and the difference in GE between 24 hrs and 3 hrs post IS that was associated with 90-day post stroke outcome using the model: GE = μ + NIHSS_24hr+mRS_90day+ ε. Good outcome was defined as mRS 0-2; Poor - as mRS 3-5. Logistic regression was used to derive a biomarker classifier.

Results: Using 24 hrs GE, we identified 14 probesets (12 genes) with the highest discriminative power for predicting outcome. The model achieved recall (the probability of correctly identifying the patients with Good outcome) of 0.88 and specificity (the probability of correctly identifying the patients with Poor outcome) of 0.67 in the validation set (The AUC-ROC = 0.88). The biomarker genes were enriched in immune responses such as IL and cytokine signaling. Among the predictors were genes important for stroke and repair after stroke (e.g., MACC1 , GDF11 ). MACC1 has been considered as a potential treatment target for IS with a protective role in hypoxia-induced human brain microvascular endothelial cells. GDF11 plays a role in brain repair after IS. We also determined how the change of GE from 3 hrs to 24 hrs would predict the 90-day outcome. A panel of ten genes was able to predict outcome in the validation set (recall= 1, specificity = 0.67, AUC-ROC=0.88). These included AVPR1A , which mediates platelet aggregation and release of coagulation factors and exacerbates brain inflammatory response to injury.

Conclusion: This pilot study suggests gene expression can be used to predict stroke outcome. Some of the genes may serve as potential therapeutic targets.

Abstract WP192: Ischemic Stroke Mechanisms By Sex And Race Over Time In The Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study

Background: Identifying the mechanism of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is critical to determining secondary stroke prevention strategies. As past data conflict on sex and race differences in stroke mechanism, we aimed to describe stroke mechanisms by sex and race over time in a population-based study of AIS cases with a focus on strokes with unknown mechanism.

Methods: We included physician adjudicated, hospital ascertained incident AIS among adults over five study periods (1993/4, 1999, 2005, 2010, 2015) from the Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study. Stroke mechanisms were adjudicated by trained study physicians and included: small vessel disease, cardioembolic, large artery disease, other, and unknown. The percentage of AIS cases in each of the 5 categories was reported by sex and race in each of our five 1-year study periods, and trends over time by subgroup were tested using the Cochran-Armitage trend test.

Results: We included 8349 AIS over 5 study periods: 4693 (56%) were women, 1607 (19%) were Black, mean age was 70.5 (14.3). Over the 22-year time period, the proportion of strokes whose mechanism was ‘unknown’ decreased in women (46.1%, 1993/4 to 38.5%, 2015 , p<0.0001), men (46.2%, 1993/4 to 33.9%, 2015, p<0.0001), Black (51.8%, 1993/4 to 40.7%, 2015, p=0.004), and White (45.0%, 1993/4 to 40.7%, 2015, p<0.0001) patients. The proportion of small vessel strokes increased over time in men, strokes of ‘other’ mechanisms increased in all subgroups, and cardioembolic strokes increased in women and White individuals only (Figure).

Conclusions: In a large population-based stroke study, the proportion of AIS with an unknown mechanism has decreased over time in all demographic groups, while trends in those categorized as cardioembolic or small vessel disease varied by sex and/or race. As changes in imaging utilization may be a contributor to our findings, future work investigating possible sex and race differences in diagnostic evaluations of AIS is warranted.

Abstract WP7: Critical Importance Of Enrollment Hours For Successful Recruitment In Acute Stroke Trials

Introduction: Recruitment into hyperacute stroke trials is challenging but ultimately depends on on-call availability of treating investigators, study coordinators, and pharmacists. These data may not be considered in initial decision-making for site selection and estimates of site recruitment are frequently based upon registry data from sites that includes all clinical cases.

Hypothesis: Site recruitment on a per month basis is associated with time open for enrollment.

Methods: We surveyed all Multi-arm Optimization of Stroke (MOST) trial centers open for enrollment to determine which were open for trial recruitment during business hours during Monday through Friday only, business hours 7 days a week, extended hours beyond business hours, or 24 hours/7 days a week. We also surveyed about pharmacy availability. Descriptive statistics were used to compare the average monthly enrollment by survey responses.

Results: Sites open for enrollment only during business hours, Monday through Friday recruited at a rate of 0.14 participants per month compared to 0.36 per month for sites that enroll 7 days a week (see graphic). Restriction of pharmacy availability to business hours Monday through Friday was associated with decreased recruitment rate as well.

Conclusions: Ability to recruit trial participants 7 days a week should be the standard for site selection, successful acute stroke trial recruitment, and estimates of needed sites. Methods to increase financial support for hours outside of week-day business hours is a potential method to enhance recruitment into acute stroke trials.

Abstract WP177: Trends In The Clinical Phenotype Of Infective Endocarditis Related Stroke From 2005-2015: A Population-Based Study Of The Greater Cincinnati/ Northern Kentucky Region

Background: Prior studies have demonstrated a rising incidence of infective endocarditis related stroke (IERS) in the US due to the opioid epidemic. The Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky (GCNK) region has one of the highest opioid abuse rates in the nation. A modern epidemiologic description is necessary to understand the impact of the opioid epidemic on the clinical phenotype of IERS.

Methods: Using the GCNK Stroke Study, all patients hospitalized with IERS in 2005, 2010, and 2015 were abstracted and physician reviewed. IERS was defined as an acute stroke clinically attributed to infective endocarditis in patients meeting modified Duke Criteria for possible or definite endocarditis. Comparison between years were by chi-square or Fisher’s exact test for categorical variables; ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis test for numerical variables. Cochran-Armitage test was used to examine trend. Secondary analysis compared characteristics between intravenous drug users (IVDU) and non-IVDU.

Results: A total of 54 patients with IERS were identified in 2005, 2010, and 2015. Over the period, there was a significant decline in hypertension (91.7% in 2005, 36.0% in 2015; p=0.0005) and increase in IVDU (8.3% in 2005, 44.0% in 2015; p=0.02). They trended towards increased white race, younger age, and fewer vascular risk factors. Compared to non-IVDU, IVDU were significantly younger (41.1±14.1vs 63.1±14.3 years; p<0.001), less often female (12.5% vs 47.4%; p=0.02), had higher rates of sepsis (50% vs 18.4%; p=0.04), less atrial fibrillation (0% vs 31.6%; p=0.01), and less renal disease (0% vs 23.7%; p=0.045). The incidence of IERS per 100,000 increased from 1.31 (CI: 0.56-2.06) in 2005, to 1.66 (CI: 0.87-2.45) in 2010, and to 2.41(CI:1.46-3.36) in 2015.

Conclusion: From 2005 to 2015, IERS was increasingly associated with IVDU and an absence of hypertension. These trends likely reflect the demographics of the opioid epidemic, which has affected younger patients with less comorbidities.

Abstract TP213: Arcadia CSI (Cognition And Silent Infarcts): Update

Introduction: Cognitive decline and dementia after stroke is a major public healthcare problem, with dementia risk doubling over time, affecting more than 2M people in the US, with no current treatment. Silent brain infarction has been associated with cognitive decline, especially among those at risk for cardio-embolism. The therapeutic challenge is to prevent the occurrence of silent infarction to mitigate proactively the loss of cognitive function.

Methods: The NINDS-funded ARCADIA-CSI is an ancillary study to ARCADIA, a randomized trial comparing apixaban vs aspirin to prevent recurrent clinical stroke in patients with cryptogenic stroke and left atrial cardiopathy. The aim of ARCADIA-CSI is to address whether apixaban might also reduce the incidence of silent infarction and be associated with better cognitive function over time compared to aspirin. Five hundred patients will be enrolled at least 90 days after the ARCADIA index stroke and undergo cognitive assessments at baseline and yearly thereafter using a telephone-based cognitive battery. We are testing the hypothesis that the slope of change in cognitive function is less steep during the follow-up period in patients on apixaban compared to patients on aspirin therapy. We will also collect an initial MRI around the time of the qualifying stroke and a follow-up MRI at the time that the subject completes participation in the ARCADIA parent study to assess the occurrence of new silent infarction.

Results: As of August 12, 2021, the study has enrolled 188 subjects from 78 ARCADIA sites which have been green-lighted for enrollment in ARCADIA-CSI. A total of 61 sites have enrolled at least one subject. To date, there is a 95% completion of baseline cognitive exams and 98% completion at the 1-yr follow-up. We have obtained 91% of the clinical scans of the index stroke of which 95% have undergone central reading and interpretation.

Conclusion: ARCADIA-CSI is designed to identify the most favorable medical approach to prevent the occurrence of silent infarction and cognitive decline in the setting of secondary stroke prevention. An update will be provided regarding the number of patients enrolled, centers green-lighted, and the completion rates of cognitive assessments, and MRIs obtained and interpreted.

Abstract WMP77: Anticoagulation-Associated Intracerebral Hemorrhage Incidence Rates: A Longitudinal Population-Based Assessment

Background: Anticoagulant-associated intracerebral hemorrhage (AA-ICH) quintupled in the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky (GC/NK) region from 1988 to 1999 in association with increasing warfarin use. Direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs), available in 2010, have evidence of less bleeding risk, while atrial fibrillation detection rates have increased. We sought to determine if rates of AA-ICH continued to increase in the last decade within a large, bi-racial population.

Methods: We identified all patients, 20 years or older, hospitalized with first-ever intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in GC/NK region in 1993/4, 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2015. AA-ICH was defined as ICH in patients prescribed warfarin, heparin or low molecular weight heparin, or a DOAC at the time of their ICH. Incidence rates were age-, sex- and race-adjusted to the 2010 US population. Change over time was tested using regression. All-cause case fatality was adjusted for age, sex and race and trend over time evaluated using a general linear model.

Results: There was no significant change over time in the incidence rate for total ICH or AA-ICH from 1993 through 2015 (Table). As compared to ICH patients without anticoagulant use, patients with AA-ICH were more likely to be older, white, have hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, prior ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation, but less likely to smoke. The age-, sex- and race-adjusted 30-day case fatality for ICH overall and AA-ICH also did not change significantly from 1993/4 to 2015 (Table). Warfarin utilization increased in our ICH population from 1993/4 (7.6%) to 2005 (17.7%), then decreased through 2015 (11.8%/DOAC 6.4%); p<0.0001.

Conclusion: Despite increased incidence rates of AA-ICH in the late 1980s to 1990s, we observed no overall change in incidence or case-fatality rate from AA-ICH over the full 20-year period despite higher rates of atrial fibrillation detection which may be explained by higher rates of DOAC (vs warfarin) use.

Associations of Early Systolic Blood Pressure Control and Outcome After Thrombolysis-Eligible Acute Ischemic Stroke: Results From the ENCHANTED Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

In thrombolysis-eligible patients with acute ischemic stroke, there is uncertainty over the most appropriate systolic blood pressure (SBP) lowering profile that provides an optimal balance of potential benefit (functional recovery) and harm (intracranial hemorrhage). We aimed to determine relationships of SBP parameters and outcomes in thrombolyzed acute ischemic stroke patients.

METHODS

Post hoc analyzes of the ENCHANTED (Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study), a partial-factorial trial of thrombolysis-eligible and treated acute ischemic stroke patients with high SBP (150-180 mm Hg) assigned to low-dose (0.6 mg/kg) or standard-dose (0.9 mg/kg) alteplase and intensive (target SBP, 130-140 mm Hg) or guideline-recommended (target SBP <180 mm Hg) treatment. All patients were followed up for functional status and serious adverse events to 90 days. Logistic regression models were used to analyze 3 SBP summary measures postrandomization: attained (mean), variability (SD) in 1-24 hours, and magnitude of reduction in 1 hour. The primary outcome was a favorable shift on the modified Rankin Scale. The key safety outcome was any intracranial hemorrhage.

RESULTS

Among 4511 included participants (mean age 67 years, 38% female, 65% Asian) lower attained SBP and smaller SBP variability were associated with favorable shift on the modified Rankin Scale (per 10 mm Hg increase: odds ratio, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.71-0.82], P<0.001 and 0.86 [95% CI, 0.76-0.98], P=0.025) respectively, but not for magnitude of SBP reduction (0.98, [0.93-1.04], P=0.564). Odds of intracranial hemorrhage was associated with higher attained SBP and greater SBP variability (1.18 [1.06-1.31], P=0.002 and 1.34 [1.11-1.62], P=0.002) but not with magnitude of SBP reduction (1.05 [0.98-1.14], P=0.184).

CONCLUSIONS

Attaining early and consistent low levels in SBP <140 mm Hg, even as low as 110 to 120 mm Hg, over 24 hours is associated with better outcomes in thrombolyzed acute ischemic stroke patients.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01422616.

Thrombolysis in Mild Stroke: A Comparative Analysis of the PRISMS and MaRISS Studies

Background and Purpose

Mild ischemic stroke patients enrolled in randomized controlled trials of thrombolysis may have a different symptom severity distribution than those treated in routine clinical practice.

Methods

We compared the distribution of the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores, neurological symptoms/severity among patients enrolled in the PRISMS (Potential of r-tPA for Ischemic Strokes With Mild Symptoms) randomized controlled trial to those with NIHSS score ≤5 enrolled in the prospective MaRISS (Mild and Rapidly Improving Stroke Study) registry using global P values from χ2 analyses.

Results

Among 1736 participants in MaRISS, 972 (56%) were treated with alteplase and 764 (44%) were not. These participants were compared with 313 patients randomized in PRISMS. The median NIHSS scores were 3 (2–4) in MaRISS alteplase-treated, 1 (1–3) in MaRISS non–alteplase-treated, and 2 (1–3) in PRISMS. The percentage with an NIHSS score of 0 to 2 was 36.3%, 73.3%, and 65.2% in the 3 groups, respectively (P<0.0001). The proportion of patients with a dominant neurological syndrome (≥1 NIHSS item score of ≥2) was higher in MaRISS alteplase-treated (32%) compared with MaRISS nonalteplase-treated (13.8%) and PRISMS (8.6%; P<0.0001).

Conclusions

Patients randomized in PRISMS had comparable deficit and syndromic severity to patients not treated with alteplase in the MaRISS registry and lesser severity than patients treated with alteplase in MaRISS. The PRISMS trial cohort is representative of mild patients who do not receive alteplase in current broad clinical practice.

What is the median volume of intracerebral hemorrhage and is it changing?

OBJECTIVES

Population-level estimates of the median intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) volume would allow for the evaluation of clinical trial external validity and determination of temporal trends. We previously reported the median ICH volume in 1988. However, differences in risk factor management, neuroimaging, and demographics may have affected ICH volumes. The goal of this study is to determine the median volume of ICH within a population-based cross-sectional study, including whether it has changed over time.

METHODS

The Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors for Hemorrhagic Stroke study was a population-based study of ICH among residents of the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region from 2008 through 2012. This study utilizes those data and compares with ICH cases from the same region in 1988. Initial computed tomography images of the head were reviewed, and ICH volumes were calculated using consistent methodology.

RESULTS

From 2008 through 2012, we identified 1117 cases of ICH. The median volume of ICH was 14.0 mL and was lower in black (11.6) than in white (15.5) patients. Median volumes of lobar and deep ICH were 28.8 mL and 9.8 mL, respectively. Median ICH volume changed significantly from 1988 to 2008-2012, with age-and-race-adjusted volume decreasing from 18.3 mL to 13.76 mL (p = 0.025).

CONCLUSIONS

Median volume of ICH was 13.76 mL, and this should be considered in clinical trial design. Median ICH volume has apparently decreased from 1988 to 2008-2012.

Acute Stroke Imaging Research Roadmap IV: Imaging Selection and Outcomes in Acute Stroke Clinical Trials and Practice

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The Stroke Treatment Academic Industry Roundtable (STAIR) sponsored an imaging session and workshop during the Stroke Treatment Academic Industry Roundtable XI via webinar on October 1 to 2, 2020, to develop consensus recommendations, particularly regarding optimal imaging at primary stroke centers.

METHODS

This forum brought together stroke neurologists, neuroradiologists, neuroimaging research scientists, members of the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, industry representatives, and members of the US Food and Drug Administration to discuss imaging priorities in the light of developments in reperfusion therapies, particularly in an extended time window, and reinvigorated interest in brain cytoprotection trials.

RESULTS

The imaging session summarized and compared the imaging components of recent acute stroke trials and debated the optimal imaging strategy at primary stroke centers. The imaging workshop developed consensus recommendations for optimizing the acquisition, analysis, and interpretation of computed tomography and magnetic resonance acute stroke imaging, and also recommendations on imaging strategies for primary stroke centers.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent positive acute stroke clinical trials have extended the treatment window for reperfusion therapies using imaging selection. Achieving rapid and high-quality stroke imaging is therefore critical at both primary and comprehensive stroke centers. Recommendations for enhancing stroke imaging research are provided.

Effect of Recombinant Activated Coagulation Factor VII on Hemorrhage Expansion Among Patients With Spot Sign-Positive Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage: The SPOTLIGHT and STOP-IT Randomized Clinical Trials

Importance

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a devastating stroke type that lacks effective treatments. An imaging biomarker of ICH expansion-the computed tomography (CT) angiography spot sign-may identify a subgroup that could benefit from hemostatic therapy.

Objective

To investigate whether recombinant activated coagulation factor VII (rFVIIa) reduces hemorrhage expansion among patients with spot sign-positive ICH.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In parallel investigator-initiated, multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials in Canada ("Spot Sign" Selection of Intracerebral Hemorrhage to Guide Hemostatic Therapy [SPOTLIGHT]) and the United States (The Spot Sign for Predicting and Treating ICH Growth Study [STOP-IT]) with harmonized protocols and a preplanned individual patient-level pooled analysis, patients presenting to the emergency department with an acute primary spontaneous ICH and a spot sign on CT angiography were recruited. Data were collected from November 2010 to May 2016. Data were analyzed from November 2016 to May 2017.

Interventions

Eligible patients were randomly assigned 80 μg/kg of intravenous rFVIIa or placebo as soon as possible within 6.5 hours of stroke onset.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Head CT at 24 hours assessed parenchymal ICH volume expansion from baseline (primary outcome) and total (ie, parenchymal plus intraventricular) hemorrhage volume expansion (secondary outcome). The pooled analysis compared hemorrhage expansion between groups by analyzing 24-hour volumes in a linear regression model adjusted for baseline volumes, time from stroke onset to treatment, and trial.

Results

Of the 69 included patients, 35 (51%) were male, and the median (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 70 (59-80) years. Baseline median (IQR) ICH volumes were 16.3 (9.6-39.2) mL in the rFVIIa group and 20.4 (8.6-32.6) mL in the placebo group. Median (IQR) time from CT to treatment was 71 (57-96) minutes, and the median (IQR) time from stroke onset to treatment was 178 (138-197) minutes. The median (IQR) increase in ICH volume from baseline to 24 hours was small in both the rFVIIa group (2.5 [0-10.2] mL) and placebo group (2.6 [0-6.6] mL). After adjustment, there was no difference between groups on measures of ICH or total hemorrhage expansion. At 90 days, 9 of 30 patients in the rFVIIa group and 13 of 34 in the placebo group had died or were severely disabled (P = .60).

Conclusions and Relevance

Among patients with spot sign-positive ICH treated a median of about 3 hours from stroke onset, rFVIIa did not significantly improve radiographic or clinical outcomes.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01359202 and NCT00810888.

The Story of Intracerebral Hemorrhage: From Recalcitrant to Treatable Disease

This invited special report is based on an award presentation at the World Stroke Organization/European Stroke Organization Conference in November of 2020 outlining progress in the acute management of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) over the past 35 years. ICH is the second most common and the deadliest type of stroke for which there is no scientifically proven medical or surgical treatment. Prospective studies from the 1990s onward have demonstrated that most growth of spontaneous ICH occurs within the first 2 to 3 hours and that growth of ICH and resulting volumes of ICH and intraventricular hemorrhage are modifiable factors that can improve outcome. Trials focusing on early treatment of elevated blood pressure have suggested a target systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg, but none of the trials were positive by their primary end point. Hemostatic agents to decrease bleeding in spontaneous ICH have included desmopressin, tranexamic acid, and rFVIIa (recombinant factor VIIa) without clear benefit, and platelet infusions which were associated with harm. Hemostatic agents delivered within the first several hours have the greatest impact on growth of ICH and potentially on outcome. No large Phase III surgical ICH trial has been positive by primary end point, but pooled analyses suggest that earlier ICH removal is more likely to be beneficial. Recent trials emphasize maximization of clot removal and minimizing brain injury from the surgical approach. The future of ICH therapy must focus on delivery of medical and surgical therapies as soon as possible if we are to improve outcomes.

Abstract P264: Trends in Diagnostic Testing and Mechanism of Stroke Determination

Introduction: A main goal for hospital admission following acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is to establish the mechanism of stroke (MoS) allowing for patient specific secondary prevention of stroke interventions. We previously reported on diagnostic testing trends and MoS determination from 1993 through 2010. We updated this analysis with 2015 data to better understand the effects of trends in diagnostic testing on MoS determination.

Methods: Patients with AIS aged > 20 years from all study time periods (Table) of the population based GCNKSS were included. Charts were abstracted in a systematic way for tests performed during the hospital stay. Only first-ever ischemic stroke cases, evaluated in an emergency department were used for this analysis. Stroke experts reviewed these events and adjudicated the mechanism of stroke according to modified TOAST criteria. We looked at and compared trends for testing and MoS.

Results: Our analysis included 7226 patients. Basic patient demographics, MoS categories and tests across study periods are detailed in the Table. There were significant increases in EKG (7%), TTE (35%), TEE (7%), HCT (4%), brain MRI (65%), MRA (30%) and CTA (28%). Across study periods, cardioembolic (4.1%), small vessel disease (3%), large artery disease (0.9%) and other (1.5%) MoS increased while unknown MoS decreased (-9.5%).

Discussion: From 1993/1994 to 2015 there has been a significant increase of in-hospital testing in AIS and decreases in undetermined MoS. Cardioembolic and small vessel disease MoS categories increased the most. Despite a significant increase in vessel imaging, large artery disease and “other determined” MoS categories are largely unchanged. Further research is required to elucidate the occult MoS underlying the undetermined category. Based on our analysis it appears unlikely to be significantly associated with our current definition of stroke associated with large artery disease defined as ≥ 50% ipsilateral stenosis.

Abstract P224: Management of TIA Over Time in the Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study

Introduction: The availability of rapid tissue and vessel imaging for TIA has increased, but the utilization rates of these and other diagnostic and management strategies for TIA over time are unknown.

Objective: To investigate trends in TIA diagnostic and management strategies over time in the Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study (GCNKSS).

Methods: The GCNKSS is a population-based study of 1.3 million people living in a 5-county area of southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky. For this study, all physician-adjudicated, first-ever cases of TIA (defined clinically as sudden onset of focal symptoms lasting < 24 hours) presenting to an emergency department over five study periods (1993/4, 1999, 2005, 2010, 2015) were included. Use of AHA-recommended aspects of TIA management as well as disposition of TIA patients (admission to hospital or discharge from ED) and length of stay were compared across study periods. Rates of acute infarct on MRI were also reported. Trends were examined using the Cochran-Armitage test for trend.

Results: In total, over all study periods, there were 2251 first-ever TIAs. Overall, 14% (n=311) occurred in Black individuals, and 57% (n=1275) occurred in women. Utilization of diagnostic modalities [non-contrast CT brain, vascular imaging (CTA, MRA, or carotid dopplers), tissue imaging (MRI), and echocardiogram] increased significantly over time (all p<0.0001). In terms of management, both admission to the hospital and discharge from the hospital on an antiplatelet agent increased over time (both p<0.0001; Table).

Conclusions: The management of TIA has changed significantly over time. Utilization of tissue and vessel imaging as well as echocardiogram during the hospital stay has increased; in 2015, the vast majority of patients with TIA in this population-based study received each of these testing modalities and were admitted to a hospital for TIA work-up. Further work is needed to understand the best practices for work-up of suspected TIA.

Abstract P602: Stroke Risk Factors Among the Young Over Time in the GCNKSS

Background: Data from the Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study (GCNKSS) have demonstrated stable or increasing stroke incidence rates in young adults with differences by sex and race, suggesting the need for targeted approaches to stroke prevention in the young. We aimed to describe trends over time in prevalence of stroke risk factors among adults ages 20-54 with stroke by sex and race.

Methods: Cases of incident stroke (IS, ICH, SAH) occurring in those 20-54 years old and living in a 5-county area of southern Ohio/northern Kentucky were ascertained during 5 study periods (1993-1994, 1999, 2005, 2010, 2015). All physician-adjudicated inpatient events and a sampling of outpatient events were included, excluding nursing home events. Data on risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, obesity (BMI≥30), and high cholesterol) diagnosed prior to stroke were abstracted from medical records, and prevalence of each risk factor was reported over time in race/sex groups. Trends over time were examined using the Cochran-Armitage test.

Results: Over the 5 study periods, 1204 incident strokes were included; 49% were women, 33% were black, and mean age was 46 (SD 7) years. Premorbid hypertension increased over time in Black women (48% in 1993/4 to 76% in 2015, p=0.005) but not in any other race/sex group (all p>0.05). Premorbid high cholesterol increased significantly in all race/sex groups (Figure, all p<0.05) except for White men (p=0.06). There were no significant trends over time in pre-stroke diagnoses of diabetes or obesity in any of the race/sex groups (Figure).

Conclusions: Among patients aged 20-54 with incident stroke in a large population-based study, the change in the prevalence of hypertension and high cholesterol differed by sex and race, while obesity and diabetes were stable over time in all race/sex groups. Future research is needed to address risk factor control at a population level and to understand the role of undiagnosed pre-stroke risk factors in the young.

Abstract P716: Factors Associated With Functional Dependence at Hospital Discharge in Patients With Low NIHSS Strokes Who Do Not Receive Intravenous Alteplase

Introduction: Patients without prior functional deficits who suffer mild stroke (NIHSS <6) have a 20-30% likelihood of disability (mRS ≥2). Predictors of disability have been described mostly in clinical trials and single center registries. We identified variables associated with functional dependence (mRS ≥3) in mild stroke using a retrospective population-based sample.

Methods: Hospitalized strokes from the Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study were used. Included patients had an initial NIHSS <6 and baseline mRS 0, both extrapolated from chart review. To minimize the inclusion of patients with disabling symptoms, tPA treatment was excluded. Demographic and clinical characteristics were analyzed by discharge disability status. A multivariable logistic model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) regression analysis identified independent predictors of disability.

Results: Of 1268 ischemic strokes, 353 (28%) were functionally dependent at discharge. Increased baseline NIHSS was associated with worse outcome on the mRS. Leg, LOC questions, and sensation NIHSS subscores were the best predictors of outcome. Multivariable analysis identified age, race, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, heart failure, and post-stroke dysphagia as independently associated with discharge mRS ≥3.

Discussion: Our results agree with and complement the results of prior studies. They are not limited by inclusion/exclusion criteria or referral bias. Rather, our major limitation is the retrospective estimation of NIHSS and mRS based on physician descriptive documentation rather than direct score assessment. Our results may allow for modeling to better predict outcome which in turn can inform clinical decision making and trial design.