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Lindgren E, Krzywicka K, de Winter MA, Sánchez van Kammen M, Heldner MR, Hiltunen S, Aguiar de Sousa D, Mansour M, Canhão P, Ekizoglu E, Rodrigues M, Silva EM, Garcia-Esperon C, Arnao V, Aridon P, Simaan N, Silvis SM, Zuurbier SM, Scutelnic A, Sezgin M, Alasheev A, Smolkin A, Guisado-Alonso D, Yesilot N, Barboza MA, Ghiasian M, Leker RR, Arauz A, Arnold M, Putaala J, Tatlisumak T, Coutinho JM, Jood K. A scoring tool to predict mortality and dependency after cerebral venous thrombosis. Eur J Neurol 2023. [PMID: 37165521 DOI: 10.1111/ene.15844] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2023] [Revised: 04/22/2023] [Accepted: 04/24/2023] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We developed a prognostic score to predict dependency and death after cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) to identify patients for targeted therapy in future clinical trials.. METHODS We used data from the International CVT Consortium. We excluded patients with pre-existent functional dependency. We used logistic regression to predict poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale 3-6) at 6 months and Cox regression to predict 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality. Potential predictors derived from previous studies were selected with backward stepwise selection. Coefficients were shrunken using Ridge regression to adjust for optimism in internal validation. RESULTS Of 1454 patients with CVT, the cumulative number of deaths was 44 (3%) and 70 (5%) for 30 days and 1 year, respectively. Of 1126 patients evaluated regarding functional outcome, 137 (12%) were dependent or dead at 6 months. From the retained predictors for both models, we derived the SI2 NCAL2 C score utilizing the following components: absence of female Sex-specific risk factor, Intracerebral hemorrhage, Infection of the central nervous system, Neurologic focal deficits, Coma, Age, lower Level of hemoglobin (g/L), higher Level of glucose (mmol/L) at admission, and Cancer. C-statistics were 0.80 (95%CI 0.75-0.84), 0.84 (95%CI 0.80-0.88) and 0.84 (95%CI 0.80-0.88) for the poor outcome, 30 days and 1 year mortality model, respectively. Calibration plots indicated good model fit between predicted and observed values. The SI2 NCAL2 C score calculator is freely available at www.cerebralvenousthrombosis.com. CONCLUSIONS The SI2 NCAL2 C score shows adequate performance for estimating individual risk of mortality and dependency after CVT but external validation of the score is warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Lindgren
- Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg and Department of Neurology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - K Krzywicka
- Department of Neurology, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - M A de Winter
- Department of Internal Medicine, UMC, Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - M Sánchez van Kammen
- Department of Neurology, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - M R Heldner
- Department of Neurology, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital and University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - S Hiltunen
- Department of Neurology, Helsinki University Hospital and University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - D Aguiar de Sousa
- Stroke Centre, Centro Hospital Universitário Lisboa Central, Lisbon, Portugal
- CEEM and Institute of Anatomy, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - M Mansour
- Sina Hospital, Hamadan University of Medical Science, Hamadan, Iran
| | - P Canhão
- Department of Neurosciences and Mental Health (Neurology), Hospital de Santa Maria/CHULN; University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - E Ekizoglu
- Department of Neurology, Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - M Rodrigues
- Department of Neurology. Hospital Garcia de Orta, Almada, Portugal
| | - E M Silva
- Department of Neurology. Hospital Garcia de Orta, Almada, Portugal
| | - C Garcia-Esperon
- Department of Neurology, John Hunter Hospital, Newcastle, NSW, Australia
| | - V Arnao
- U.O.C. Neurologia con Stroke Unit A.R.N.A.S. Civico, Palermo, Italy
| | - P Aridon
- Department of Biomedicine, Neuroscience and Advanced Diagnostics (Bi.N.D), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
| | - N Simaan
- Department of Neurology, Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - S M Silvis
- Department of Neurology, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - S M Zuurbier
- Department of Neurology, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - A Scutelnic
- Department of Neurology, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital and University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - M Sezgin
- Department of Neurology, Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - A Alasheev
- Department of Neurology, Sverdlovsk, Yekaterinburg, Russia
| | - A Smolkin
- Department of Neurology, Sverdlovsk, Yekaterinburg, Russia
| | - D Guisado-Alonso
- Department of Neurology, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Barcelona, Spain
| | - N Yesilot
- Department of Neurology, Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - M A Barboza
- Neurosciences Department, Hospital Dr. R.A. Calderón Guardia, CCSS, San José, Costa Rica
| | - M Ghiasian
- Sina Hospital, Hamadan University of Medical Science, Hamadan, Iran
| | - R R Leker
- Department of Neurology, Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - A Arauz
- Instituto Nacional de Neurologia and Neurocirugia Manuel Velasco Suarez, Mexico-City, Mexico
| | - M Arnold
- Department of Neurology, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital and University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - J Putaala
- Department of Neurology, Helsinki University Hospital and University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - T Tatlisumak
- Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg and Department of Neurology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Department of Neurology, Helsinki University Hospital and University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - J M Coutinho
- Department of Neurology, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - K Jood
- Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg and Department of Neurology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden
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