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Cooper JG, Ferguson J, Donaldson LA, Black KMM, Livock KJ, Horrill JL, Davidson EM, Scott NW, Lee AJ, Fujisawa T, Lee KK, Anand A, Shah ASV, Mills NL. Could paramedics use the HEART Pathway to identify patients at low-risk of myocardial infarction in the prehospital setting? Am Heart J 2024; 271:182-187. [PMID: 38658076 DOI: 10.1016/j.ahj.2024.02.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2023] [Revised: 02/19/2024] [Accepted: 02/19/2024] [Indexed: 04/26/2024]
Abstract
In the Emergency Department, patients with suspected myocardial infarction can be risk stratified using the HEART pathway, which has recently been amended for prehospital use and modified for the incorporation of a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin test. In a prospective analysis, the performance of both HEART pathways in the prehospital setting, with a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin test using 3 different thresholds, was evaluated for major adverse cardiac events at 30 days. We found that both low-risk HEART pathways, when using the most conservative cardiac troponin thresholds, approached but did not reach accepted rule-out performance in the Emergency Department.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jamie G Cooper
- Emergency Department, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, UK; School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.
| | - James Ferguson
- Emergency Department, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, UK; School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | | | - Kim M M Black
- Emergency Department, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Kate J Livock
- Emergency Department, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, UK
| | | | - Elaine M Davidson
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Neil W Scott
- Medical Statistics Team, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Amanda J Lee
- Medical Statistics Team, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Takeshi Fujisawa
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; BHF Cardiovascular Biomarker Laboratory, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Atul Anand
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Anoop S V Shah
- Department of Non-Communicable Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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Boeddinghaus J, Doudesis D, Lopez-Ayala P, Lee KK, Koechlin L, Wildi K, Nestelberger T, Borer R, Miró Ò, Martin-Sanchez FJ, Strebel I, Rubini Giménez M, Keller DI, Christ M, Bularga A, Li Z, Ferry AV, Tuck C, Anand A, Gray A, Mills NL, Mueller C. Machine Learning for Myocardial Infarction Compared With Guideline-Recommended Diagnostic Pathways. Circulation 2024; 149:1090-1101. [PMID: 38344871 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.123.066917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2023] [Accepted: 01/16/2024] [Indexed: 02/29/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Collaboration for the Diagnosis and Evaluation of Acute Coronary Syndrome (CoDE-ACS) is a validated clinical decision support tool that uses machine learning with or without serial cardiac troponin measurements at a flexible time point to calculate the probability of myocardial infarction (MI). How CoDE-ACS performs at different time points for serial measurement and compares with guideline-recommended diagnostic pathways that rely on fixed thresholds and time points is uncertain. METHODS Patients with possible MI without ST-segment-elevation were enrolled at 12 sites in 5 countries and underwent serial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentration measurement at 0, 1, and 2 hours. Diagnostic performance of the CoDE-ACS model at each time point was determined for index type 1 MI and the effectiveness of previously validated low- and high-probability scores compared with guideline-recommended European Society of Cardiology (ESC) 0/1-hour, ESC 0/2-hour, and High-STEACS (High-Sensitivity Troponin in the Evaluation of Patients With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome) pathways. RESULTS In total, 4105 patients (mean age, 61 years [interquartile range, 50-74]; 32% women) were included, among whom 575 (14%) had type 1 MI. At presentation, CoDE-ACS identified 56% of patients as low probability, with a negative predictive value and sensitivity of 99.7% (95% CI, 99.5%-99.9%) and 99.0% (98.6%-99.2%), ruling out more patients than the ESC 0-hour and High-STEACS (25% and 35%) pathways. Incorporating a second cardiac troponin measurement, CoDE-ACS identified 65% or 68% of patients as low probability at 1 or 2 hours, for an identical negative predictive value of 99.7% (99.5%-99.9%); 19% or 18% as high probability, with a positive predictive value of 64.9% (63.5%-66.4%) and 68.8% (67.3%-70.1%); and 16% or 14% as intermediate probability. In comparison, after serial measurements, the ESC 0/1-hour, ESC 0/2-hour, and High-STEACS pathways identified 49%, 53%, and 71% of patients as low risk, with a negative predictive value of 100% (99.9%-100%), 100% (99.9%-100%), and 99.7% (99.5%-99.8%); and 20%, 19%, or 29% as high risk, with a positive predictive value of 61.5% (60.0%-63.0%), 65.8% (64.3%-67.2%), and 48.3% (46.8%-49.8%), resulting in 31%, 28%, or 0%, who require further observation in the emergency department, respectively. CONCLUSIONS CoDE-ACS performs consistently irrespective of the timing of serial cardiac troponin measurement, identifying more patients as low probability with comparable performance to guideline-recommended pathways for MI. Whether care guided by probabilities can improve the early diagnosis of MI requires prospective evaluation. REGISTRATION URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00470587.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jasper Boeddinghaus
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB) and Department of Cardiology (J.B., P.L.-A., L.K., K.W., T.N., R.B., I.S., M.R.G., C.M.), University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
- BHF/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science (J.B., D.D., K.K.L., A.B., Z.L., A.V.F., C.T., A.A., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Dimitrios Doudesis
- BHF/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science (J.B., D.D., K.K.L., A.B., Z.L., A.V.F., C.T., A.A., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
- Usher Institute (D.D., K.K.L., A.G., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Pedro Lopez-Ayala
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB) and Department of Cardiology (J.B., P.L.-A., L.K., K.W., T.N., R.B., I.S., M.R.G., C.M.), University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science (J.B., D.D., K.K.L., A.B., Z.L., A.V.F., C.T., A.A., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
- Usher Institute (D.D., K.K.L., A.G., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Luca Koechlin
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB) and Department of Cardiology (J.B., P.L.-A., L.K., K.W., T.N., R.B., I.S., M.R.G., C.M.), University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
- Departments of Cardiac Surgery (L.K.), University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
| | - Karin Wildi
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB) and Department of Cardiology (J.B., P.L.-A., L.K., K.W., T.N., R.B., I.S., M.R.G., C.M.), University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
- Intensive Care (K.W.), University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
| | - Thomas Nestelberger
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB) and Department of Cardiology (J.B., P.L.-A., L.K., K.W., T.N., R.B., I.S., M.R.G., C.M.), University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
| | - Raphael Borer
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB) and Department of Cardiology (J.B., P.L.-A., L.K., K.W., T.N., R.B., I.S., M.R.G., C.M.), University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
| | - Òscar Miró
- Emergency Department, Hospital Clinic, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain (Ò.M.)
| | | | - Ivo Strebel
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB) and Department of Cardiology (J.B., P.L.-A., L.K., K.W., T.N., R.B., I.S., M.R.G., C.M.), University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
| | - Maria Rubini Giménez
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB) and Department of Cardiology (J.B., P.L.-A., L.K., K.W., T.N., R.B., I.S., M.R.G., C.M.), University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
| | - Dagmar I Keller
- Emergency Department, University Hospital Zurich, Switzerland (D.I.K.)
| | - Michael Christ
- Emergency Department, Kantonsspital Luzern, Switzerland (M.C.)
| | - Anda Bularga
- BHF/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science (J.B., D.D., K.K.L., A.B., Z.L., A.V.F., C.T., A.A., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Ziwen Li
- BHF/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science (J.B., D.D., K.K.L., A.B., Z.L., A.V.F., C.T., A.A., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Amy V Ferry
- BHF/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science (J.B., D.D., K.K.L., A.B., Z.L., A.V.F., C.T., A.A., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Chris Tuck
- BHF/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science (J.B., D.D., K.K.L., A.B., Z.L., A.V.F., C.T., A.A., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Atul Anand
- BHF/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science (J.B., D.D., K.K.L., A.B., Z.L., A.V.F., C.T., A.A., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Alasdair Gray
- Usher Institute (D.D., K.K.L., A.G., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
- Emergency Medicine Research Group Edinburgh, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, UK (A.G.)
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science (J.B., D.D., K.K.L., A.B., Z.L., A.V.F., C.T., A.A., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
- Usher Institute (D.D., K.K.L., A.G., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Christian Mueller
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB) and Department of Cardiology (J.B., P.L.-A., L.K., K.W., T.N., R.B., I.S., M.R.G., C.M.), University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
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Taggart C, Roos A, Kadesjö E, Anand A, Li Z, Doudesis D, Lee KK, Bularga A, Wereski R, Lowry MTH, Chapman AR, Ferry AV, Shah ASV, Gard A, Lindahl B, Edgren G, Mills NL, Kimenai DM. Application of the Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction in Clinical Practice in Scotland and Sweden. JAMA Netw Open 2024; 7:e245853. [PMID: 38587840 PMCID: PMC11002705 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.5853] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2023] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 04/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Importance Whether the diagnostic classifications proposed by the universal definition of myocardial infarction (MI) to identify type 1 MI due to atherothrombosis and type 2 MI due to myocardial oxygen supply-demand imbalance have been applied consistently in clinical practice is unknown. Objective To evaluate the application of the universal definition of MI in consecutive patients with possible MI across 2 health care systems. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study used data from 2 prospective cohorts enrolling consecutive patients with possible MI in Scotland (2013-2016) and Sweden (2011-2014) to assess accuracy of clinical diagnosis of MI recorded in hospital records for patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 or type 2 MI. Data were analyzed from August 2022 to February 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcome was the proportion of patients with a clinical diagnosis of MI recorded in the hospital records who had type 1 or type 2 MI, adjudicated by an independent panel according to the universal definition. Characteristics and risk of subsequent MI or cardiovascular death at 1 year were compared. Results A total of 50 356 patients were assessed. The cohort from Scotland included 28 783 (15 562 men [54%]; mean [SD] age, 60 [17] years), and the cohort from Sweden included 21 573 (11 110 men [51%]; mean [SD] age, 56 [17] years) patients. In Scotland, a clinical diagnosis of MI was recorded in 2506 of 3187 patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 MI (79%) and 122 of 716 patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 2 MI (17%). Similar findings were observed in Sweden, with 970 of 1111 patients with adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 MI (87%) and 57 of 251 patients with adjudicated diagnosis of type 2 MI (23%) receiving a clinical diagnosis of MI. Patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 MI without a clinical diagnosis were more likely to be women (eg, 336 women [49%] vs 909 women [36%] in Scotland; P < .001) and older (mean [SD] age, 71 [14] v 67 [14] years in Scotland, P < .001) and, when adjusting for competing risk from noncardiovascular death, were at similar or increased risk of subsequent MI or cardiovascular death compared with patients with a clinical diagnosis of MI (eg, 29% vs 18% in Scotland; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort study, the universal definition of MI was not consistently applied in clinical practice, with a minority of patients with type 2 MI identified, and type 1 MI underrecognized in women and older persons, suggesting uncertainty remains regarding the diagnostic criteria or value of the classification.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caelan Taggart
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Andreas Roos
- Department of Emergency and Reparative Medicine, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Medicine, Clinical Epidemiology Division, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Erik Kadesjö
- Department of Emergency and Reparative Medicine, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Atul Anand
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Ziwen Li
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Dimitrios Doudesis
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Anda Bularga
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Ryan Wereski
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Matthew T. H. Lowry
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew R. Chapman
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Amy V. Ferry
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Anoop S. V. Shah
- Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Anton Gard
- Department of Cardiology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Bertil Lindahl
- Department of Cardiology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Gustaf Edgren
- Department of Medicine, Clinical Epidemiology Division, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Cardiology, Södersjukhuset, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Nicholas L. Mills
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Dorien M. Kimenai
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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4
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Lee KK, Doudesis D, Ferry AV, Chapman AR, Kimenai DM, Fujisawa T, Bularga A, Lowry MTH, Taggart C, Schulberg S, Wereski R, Tuck C, Strachan FE, Newby DE, Anand A, Shah ASV, Mills NL. Implementation of a high sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay and risk of myocardial infarction or death at five years: observational analysis of a stepped wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial. BMJ 2023; 383:e075009. [PMID: 38011922 PMCID: PMC10680066 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2023-075009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/18/2023] [Indexed: 11/29/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the impact of implementing a high sensitivity assay for cardiac troponin I on long term outcomes in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. DESIGN Secondary observational analysis of a stepped wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING 10 secondary and tertiary care centres in Scotland, UK. PARTICIPANTS 48 282 consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Myocardial injury was defined as any high sensitivity assay result for cardiac troponin I >99th centile of 16 ng/L in women and 34 ng/L in men. INTERVENTION Hospital sites were randomly allocated to either early (n=5 hospitals) or late (n=5 hospitals) implementation of a high sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay with sex specific diagnostic thresholds. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE The main outcome was myocardial infarction or death at five years. RESULTS 10 360 patients had cardiac troponin concentrations greater than the 99th centile, of whom 1771 (17.1%) were reclassified by the high sensitivity assay. The five year incidence of subsequent myocardial infarction or death before and after implementation of the high sensitivity assay was 29.4% (5588/18 978) v 25.9% (7591/29 304), respectively, in all patients (adjusted hazard ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.93 to 1.01), and 63.0% (456/720) v 53.9% (567/1051), respectively, in those reclassified by the high sensitivity assay (0.82, 0.72 to 0.94). After implementation of the high sensitivity assay, a reduction in subsequent myocardial infarction or death was observed in patients with non-ischaemic myocardial injury (0.83, 0.75 to 0.91) but not in those with type 1 or type 2 myocardial infarction (0.92, 0.83 to 1.01 and 0.98, 0.84 to 1.14). CONCLUSIONS Implementation of a high sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay in the assessment of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome was associated with a reduced risk of subsequent myocardial infarction or death at five years in those reclassified by the high sensitivity assay. Improvements in outcome were greatest in patients with non-ischaemic myocardial injury, suggesting a broader benefit beyond the identification of myocardial infarction. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01852123.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuan Ken Lee
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Dimitrios Doudesis
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Amy V Ferry
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Andrew R Chapman
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Dorien M Kimenai
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Takeshi Fujisawa
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Anda Bularga
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Matthew T H Lowry
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Caelan Taggart
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Stacey Schulberg
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Ryan Wereski
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Chris Tuck
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
| | | | - David E Newby
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Atul Anand
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Anoop S V Shah
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, UK
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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5
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Neumann JT, Twerenbold R, Ojeda F, Aldous SJ, Allen BR, Apple FS, Babel H, Christenson RH, Cullen L, Di Carluccio E, Doudesis D, Ekelund U, Giannitsis E, Greenslade J, Inoue K, Jernberg T, Kavsak P, Keller T, Lee KK, Lindahl B, Lorenz T, Mahler SA, Mills NL, Mokhtari A, Parsonage W, Pickering JW, Pemberton CJ, Reich C, Richards AM, Sandoval Y, Than MP, Toprak B, Troughton RW, Worster A, Zeller T, Ziegler A, Blankenberg S. Personalized diagnosis in suspected myocardial infarction. Clin Res Cardiol 2023; 112:1288-1301. [PMID: 37131096 PMCID: PMC10449973 DOI: 10.1007/s00392-023-02206-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2023] [Accepted: 04/11/2023] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In suspected myocardial infarction (MI), guidelines recommend using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn)-based approaches. These require fixed assay-specific thresholds and timepoints, without directly integrating clinical information. Using machine-learning techniques including hs-cTn and clinical routine variables, we aimed to build a digital tool to directly estimate the individual probability of MI, allowing for numerous hs-cTn assays. METHODS In 2,575 patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected MI, two ensembles of machine-learning models using single or serial concentrations of six different hs-cTn assays were derived to estimate the individual MI probability (ARTEMIS model). Discriminative performance of the models was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and logLoss. Model performance was validated in an external cohort with 1688 patients and tested for global generalizability in 13 international cohorts with 23,411 patients. RESULTS Eleven routinely available variables including age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, electrocardiography, and hs-cTn were included in the ARTEMIS models. In the validation and generalization cohorts, excellent discriminative performance was confirmed, superior to hs-cTn only. For the serial hs-cTn measurement model, AUC ranged from 0.92 to 0.98. Good calibration was observed. Using a single hs-cTn measurement, the ARTEMIS model allowed direct rule-out of MI with very high and similar safety but up to tripled efficiency compared to the guideline-recommended strategy. CONCLUSION We developed and validated diagnostic models to accurately estimate the individual probability of MI, which allow for variable hs-cTn use and flexible timing of resampling. Their digital application may provide rapid, safe and efficient personalized patient care. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS Data of following cohorts were used for this project: BACC ( www. CLINICALTRIALS gov ; NCT02355457), stenoCardia ( www. CLINICALTRIALS gov ; NCT03227159), ADAPT-BSN ( www.australianclinicaltrials.gov.au ; ACTRN12611001069943), IMPACT ( www.australianclinicaltrials.gov.au , ACTRN12611000206921), ADAPT-RCT ( www.anzctr.org.au ; ANZCTR12610000766011), EDACS-RCT ( www.anzctr.org.au ; ANZCTR12613000745741); DROP-ACS ( https://www.umin.ac.jp , UMIN000030668); High-STEACS ( www. CLINICALTRIALS gov ; NCT01852123), LUND ( www. CLINICALTRIALS gov ; NCT05484544), RAPID-CPU ( www. CLINICALTRIALS gov ; NCT03111862), ROMI ( www. CLINICALTRIALS gov ; NCT01994577), SAMIE ( https://anzctr.org.au ; ACTRN12621000053820), SEIGE and SAFETY ( www. CLINICALTRIALS gov ; NCT04772157), STOP-CP ( www. CLINICALTRIALS gov ; NCT02984436), UTROPIA ( www. CLINICALTRIALS gov ; NCT02060760).
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Affiliation(s)
- Johannes Tobias Neumann
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Martinistraße 52, 20246, Hamburg, Germany
- German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner SiteHamburg/Kiel/Lübeck, Hamburg, Germany
- Population Health Research Department, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Raphael Twerenbold
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Martinistraße 52, 20246, Hamburg, Germany
- German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner SiteHamburg/Kiel/Lübeck, Hamburg, Germany
- Population Health Research Department, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
- University Center of Cardiovascular Science, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Francisco Ojeda
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Martinistraße 52, 20246, Hamburg, Germany
- Population Health Research Department, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Sally J Aldous
- Department of Cardiology, Christchurch Hospital, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Brandon R Allen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Fred S Apple
- Departments of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Hennepin Healthcare/HCMC and University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Hugo Babel
- Cardio-CARE, Medizincampus Davos, Davos, Switzerland
| | - Robert H Christenson
- Department of Pathology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Louise Cullen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston, QLD, Australia
| | | | - Dimitrios Doudesis
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Ulf Ekelund
- Department of Internal and Emergency Medicine, Lund University, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden
| | | | - Jaimi Greenslade
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston, QLD, Australia
| | - Kenji Inoue
- Juntendo University Nerima Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Tomas Jernberg
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Danderyd University Hospital, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Peter Kavsak
- Department of Pathology and Molecular Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - Till Keller
- Department of Cardiology, Kerckhoff Heart and Thorax Center, Bad Nauheim, Germany
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Bertil Lindahl
- Department of Medical Sciences and Uppsala Clinical Research Center, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Thiess Lorenz
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Martinistraße 52, 20246, Hamburg, Germany
- German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner SiteHamburg/Kiel/Lübeck, Hamburg, Germany
- Population Health Research Department, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Simon A Mahler
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Arash Mokhtari
- Department of Internal Medicine and Emergency Medicine and Department of Cardiology, Lund University, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden
| | - William Parsonage
- Australian Centre for Health Service Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Australia
| | - John W Pickering
- Department of Medicine, Christchurch and Emergency Department, University of Otago, Christchurch Hospital, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Christopher J Pemberton
- Department of Medicine, Christchurch Heart Institute, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Christoph Reich
- Department of Cardiology, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - A Mark Richards
- Department of Medicine, Christchurch and Emergency Department, University of Otago, Christchurch Hospital, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Yader Sandoval
- Minneapolis Heart Institute, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, and Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Martin P Than
- Department of Medicine, Christchurch and Emergency Department, University of Otago, Christchurch Hospital, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Betül Toprak
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Martinistraße 52, 20246, Hamburg, Germany
- German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner SiteHamburg/Kiel/Lübeck, Hamburg, Germany
- Population Health Research Department, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
- University Center of Cardiovascular Science, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Richard W Troughton
- Department of Medicine, Christchurch Heart Institute, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Andrew Worster
- Division of Emergency Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - Tanja Zeller
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Martinistraße 52, 20246, Hamburg, Germany
- German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner SiteHamburg/Kiel/Lübeck, Hamburg, Germany
- Population Health Research Department, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
- University Center of Cardiovascular Science, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Andreas Ziegler
- Cardio-CARE, Medizincampus Davos, Davos, Switzerland
- School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa
| | - Stefan Blankenberg
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Martinistraße 52, 20246, Hamburg, Germany.
- German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner SiteHamburg/Kiel/Lübeck, Hamburg, Germany.
- Population Health Research Department, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
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6
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Lowry MTH, Doudesis D, Boeddinghaus J, Kimenai DM, Bularga A, Taggart C, Wereski R, Ferry AV, Stewart SD, Tuck C, Koechlin L, Nestelberger T, Lopez-Ayala P, Huré G, Lee KK, Chapman AR, Newby DE, Anand A, Collinson PO, Mueller C, Mills NL. Troponin in early presenters to rule out myocardial infarction. Eur Heart J 2023; 44:2846-2858. [PMID: 37350492 PMCID: PMC10406338 DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehad376] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2022] [Revised: 04/12/2023] [Accepted: 05/24/2023] [Indexed: 06/24/2023] Open
Abstract
AIMS Whether a single cardiac troponin measurement can safely rule out myocardial infarction in patients presenting within a few hours of symptom onset is uncertain. The study aim was to assess the performance of troponin in early presenters. METHODS AND RESULTS In patients with possible myocardial infarction, the diagnostic performance of a single measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I at presentation was evaluated and externally validated in those tested ≤3, 4-12, and >12 h from symptom onset. The limit-of-detection (2 ng/L), rule-out (5 ng/L), and sex-specific 99th centile (16 ng/L in women; 34 ng/L in men) thresholds were compared. In 41 103 consecutive patients [60 (17) years, 46% women], 12 595 (31%) presented within 3 h, and 3728 (9%) had myocardial infarction. In those presenting ≤3 h, a threshold of 2 ng/L had greater sensitivity and negative predictive value [99.4% (95% confidence interval 99.2%-99.5%) and 99.7% (99.6%-99.8%)] compared with 5 ng/L [96.5% (96.2%-96.8%) and 99.3% (99.1%-99.4%)]. In those presenting ≥3 h, the sensitivity and negative predictive value were similar for both thresholds. The sensitivity of the 99th centile was low in early and late presenters at 71.4% (70.6%-72.2%) and 92.5% (92.0%-93.0%), respectively. Findings were consistent in an external validation cohort of 7088 patients. CONCLUSION In early presenters, a single measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I below the limit of detection may facilitate the safe rule out of myocardial infarction. The 99th centile should not be used to rule out myocardial infarction at presentation even in those presenting later following symptom onset.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew T H Lowry
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Room SU.226, Chancellor’s Building, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
| | - Dimitrios Doudesis
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Room SU.226, Chancellor’s Building, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
- Usher Institute, 9 Little France Road, BioQuarter, Edinburgh, EH16 4UX, UK
| | - Jasper Boeddinghaus
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Room SU.226, Chancellor’s Building, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
| | - Dorien M Kimenai
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Room SU.226, Chancellor’s Building, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
| | - Anda Bularga
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Room SU.226, Chancellor’s Building, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
| | - Caelan Taggart
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Room SU.226, Chancellor’s Building, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
| | - Ryan Wereski
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Room SU.226, Chancellor’s Building, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
| | - Amy V Ferry
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Room SU.226, Chancellor’s Building, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
| | - Stacey D Stewart
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Room SU.226, Chancellor’s Building, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
| | - Christopher Tuck
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Room SU.226, Chancellor’s Building, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
| | - Luca Koechlin
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB) and Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
| | - Thomas Nestelberger
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB) and Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
| | - Pedro Lopez-Ayala
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB) and Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
| | - Gabrielle Huré
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB) and Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Room SU.226, Chancellor’s Building, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
| | - Andrew R Chapman
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Room SU.226, Chancellor’s Building, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
| | - David E Newby
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Room SU.226, Chancellor’s Building, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
| | - Atul Anand
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Room SU.226, Chancellor’s Building, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
| | - Paul O Collinson
- Department of Clinical Blood Sciences, St George’s, University Hospitals NHS Trust and St George’s University of London, London, UK
- Department Cardiology, St George’s, University Hospitals NHS Trust and St George’s University of London, London, UK
| | - Christian Mueller
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB) and Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Room SU.226, Chancellor’s Building, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
- Usher Institute, 9 Little France Road, BioQuarter, Edinburgh, EH16 4UX, UK
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7
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Cooper JG, Ferguson J, Donaldson LA, Black KMM, Livock KJ, Horrill JL, Davidson EM, Scott NW, Lee AJ, Fujisawa T, Lee KK, Anand A, Shah ASV, Mills NL. Performance of a prehospital HEART score in patients with possible myocardial infarction: a prospective evaluation. Emerg Med J 2023; 40:474-481. [PMID: 37268413 DOI: 10.1136/emermed-2022-213003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2022] [Accepted: 05/14/2023] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The History, Electrocardiogram (ECG), Age, Risk Factors and Troponin (HEART) score is commonly used to risk stratify patients with possible myocardial infarction as low risk or high risk in the Emergency Department (ED). Whether the HEART score can be used by paramedics to guide care were high-sensitivity cardiac troponin testing available in a prehospital setting is uncertain. METHODS In a prespecified secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study where paramedics enrolled patients with suspected myocardial infarction, a paramedic Heart, ECG, Age, Risk Factors (HEAR) score was recorded contemporaneously, and a prehospital blood sample was obtained for subsequent cardiac troponin testing. HEART and modified HEART scores were derived using laboratory contemporary and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I assays. HEART and modified HEART scores of ≤3 and ≥7 were applied to define low-risk and high-risk patients, and performance was evaluated for an outcome of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) at 30 days. RESULTS Between November 2014 and April 2018, 1054 patients were recruited, of whom 960 (mean 64 (SD 15) years, 42% women) were eligible for analysis and 255 (26%) experienced a MACE at 30 days. A HEART score of ≤3 identified 279 (29%) as low risk with a negative predictive value of 93.5% (95% CI 90.0% to 95.9%) for the contemporary assay and 91.4% (95% CI 87.5% to 94.2%) for the high-sensitivity assay. A modified HEART score of ≤3 using the limit of detection of the high-sensitivity assay identified 194 (20%) patients as low risk with a negative predictive value of 95.9% (95% CI 92.1% to 97.9%). A HEART score of ≥7 using either assay gave a lower positive predictive value than using the upper reference limit of either cardiac troponin assay alone. CONCLUSIONS A HEART score derived by paramedics in the prehospital setting, even when modified to harness the precision of a high-sensitivity assay, does not allow safe rule-out of myocardial infarction or enhanced rule-in compared with cardiac troponin testing alone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jamie G Cooper
- Emergency Department, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, UK
- School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - James Ferguson
- Emergency Department, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Lorna A Donaldson
- Department of Research Development and Innovation, Scottish Ambulance Service, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Kim M M Black
- Emergency Department, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Kate J Livock
- Emergency Department, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, UK
| | | | - Elaine M Davidson
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Neil W Scott
- Medical Statistics Team, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Amanda J Lee
- Medical Statistics Team, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Takeshi Fujisawa
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- BHF Cardiovascular Biomarker Laboratory, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Atul Anand
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Anoop S V Shah
- Department of Non Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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8
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Lee KK, Lowe D, O'Brien R, Wereski R, Bularga A, Taggart C, Lowry MTH, Ferry AV, Williams MC, Roditi G, Byrne J, Tuck C, Cranley D, Thokala P, Goodacre S, Keerie C, Norrie J, Newby DE, Gray AJ, Mills NL. Troponin in acute chest pain to risk stratify and guide effective use of computed tomography coronary angiography (TARGET-CTCA): a randomised controlled trial. Trials 2023; 24:402. [PMID: 37312104 PMCID: PMC10264092 DOI: 10.1186/s13063-023-07431-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2023] [Accepted: 06/05/2023] [Indexed: 06/15/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The majority of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome presenting to the emergency department will be discharged once myocardial infarction has been ruled out, although a proportion will have unrecognised coronary artery disease. In this setting, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin identifies those at increased risk of future cardiac events. In patients with intermediate cardiac troponin concentrations in whom myocardial infarction has been ruled out, this trial aims to investigate whether outpatient computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) reduces subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiac death. METHODS TARGET-CTCA is a multicentre prospective randomised open label with blinded endpoint parallel group event driven trial. After myocardial infarction and clear alternative diagnoses have been ruled out, participants with intermediate cardiac troponin concentrations (5 ng/L to 99th centile upper reference limit) will be randomised 1:1 to outpatient CTCA plus standard of care or standard of care alone. The primary endpoint is myocardial infarction or cardiac death. Secondary endpoints include clinical, patient-centred, process and cost-effectiveness. Recruitment of 2270 patients will give 90% power with a two-sided P value of 0.05 to detect a 40% relative risk reduction in the primary endpoint. Follow-up will continue until 97 primary outcome events have been accrued in the standard care arm with an estimated median follow-up of 36 months. DISCUSSION This randomised controlled trial will determine whether high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-guided CTCA can improve outcomes and reduce subsequent major adverse cardiac events in patients presenting to the emergency department who do not have myocardial infarction. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03952351. Registered on May 16, 2019.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK
| | - David Lowe
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, Glasgow, UK
| | - Rachel O'Brien
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Emergency Medicine Research Group, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Ryan Wereski
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Anda Bularga
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Caelan Taggart
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Matthew T H Lowry
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Amy V Ferry
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Michelle C Williams
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Giles Roditi
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, Glasgow University, Glasgow, UK
| | - John Byrne
- Department of Cardiology, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, Glasgow, UK
| | - Chris Tuck
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Denise Cranley
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Praveen Thokala
- School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR), University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Steve Goodacre
- School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR), University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Catriona Keerie
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - John Norrie
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - David E Newby
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Alasdair J Gray
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Emergency Medicine Research Group, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK.
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
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9
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Doudesis D, Lee KK, Boeddinghaus J, Bularga A, Ferry AV, Tuck C, Lowry MTH, Lopez-Ayala P, Nestelberger T, Koechlin L, Bernabeu MO, Neubeck L, Anand A, Schulz K, Apple FS, Parsonage W, Greenslade JH, Cullen L, Pickering JW, Than MP, Gray A, Mueller C, Mills NL. Machine learning for diagnosis of myocardial infarction using cardiac troponin concentrations. Nat Med 2023; 29:1201-1210. [PMID: 37169863 PMCID: PMC10202804 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-023-02325-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2022] [Accepted: 03/28/2023] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Although guidelines recommend fixed cardiac troponin thresholds for the diagnosis of myocardial infarction, troponin concentrations are influenced by age, sex, comorbidities and time from symptom onset. To improve diagnosis, we developed machine learning models that integrate cardiac troponin concentrations at presentation or on serial testing with clinical features and compute the Collaboration for the Diagnosis and Evaluation of Acute Coronary Syndrome (CoDE-ACS) score (0-100) that corresponds to an individual's probability of myocardial infarction. The models were trained on data from 10,038 patients (48% women), and their performance was externally validated using data from 10,286 patients (35% women) from seven cohorts. CoDE-ACS had excellent discrimination for myocardial infarction (area under curve, 0.953; 95% confidence interval, 0.947-0.958), performed well across subgroups and identified more patients at presentation as low probability of having myocardial infarction than fixed cardiac troponin thresholds (61 versus 27%) with a similar negative predictive value and fewer as high probability of having myocardial infarction (10 versus 16%) with a greater positive predictive value. Patients identified as having a low probability of myocardial infarction had a lower rate of cardiac death than those with intermediate or high probability 30 days (0.1 versus 0.5 and 1.8%) and 1 year (0.3 versus 2.8 and 4.2%; P < 0.001 for both) from patient presentation. CoDE-ACS used as a clinical decision support system has the potential to reduce hospital admissions and have major benefits for patients and health care providers.
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Grants
- FS/18/25/33454 British Heart Foundation
- MR/V007254/1 Medical Research Council
- CH/F/21/90010 British Heart Foundation
- RG/20/10/34966 British Heart Foundation
- MR/N013166/1 Medical Research Council
- RE/18/5/34216 British Heart Foundation
- MR/W000598/1 Medical Research Council
- British Heart Foundation (BHF)
- RCUK | Medical Research Council (MRC)
- The University of Basel, the University Hospital of Basel, the Swiss Academy of Medical Sciences, the Gottfried and Julia Bangerter-Rhyner Foundation, the Swiss National Science Foundation
- Swiss Heart Foundation, the University of Basel, the Swiss Academy of Medical Science, the Gottfried and Julia Bangerter-Rhyner Foundation, and the “Freiwillige Akademische Gesellschaft Basel.”
- Advance Queensland Fellowship
- the Swiss National Science Foundation, the Swiss Heart Foundation, the Commission for Technology and Innovation, and the University Hospital Basel.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dimitrios Doudesis
- British Heart Foundation/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- British Heart Foundation/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Jasper Boeddinghaus
- British Heart Foundation/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel and Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Anda Bularga
- British Heart Foundation/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Amy V Ferry
- British Heart Foundation/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Chris Tuck
- British Heart Foundation/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Matthew T H Lowry
- British Heart Foundation/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Pedro Lopez-Ayala
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel and Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Thomas Nestelberger
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel and Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Luca Koechlin
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel and Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Department of Cardiac Surgery, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Miguel O Bernabeu
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- The Bayes Centre, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Lis Neubeck
- School of Health and Social Care, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Atul Anand
- British Heart Foundation/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Karen Schulz
- Cardiac Biomarkers Trials Laboratory, Hennepin Healthcare Research Institute, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Fred S Apple
- Departments of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Hennepin County Medical Center and University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - William Parsonage
- Australian Centre for Health Service Innovation, Centre for Healthcare Transformation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Jaimi H Greenslade
- Emergency and Trauma Centre, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Medicine, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Louise Cullen
- Emergency and Trauma Centre, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- School of Medicine, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - John W Pickering
- Department of Medicine, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand
- Emergency Department, Christchurch Hospital, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Martin P Than
- Department of Medicine, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Alasdair Gray
- Emergency Medicine Research Group Edinburgh, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Christian Mueller
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel and Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- British Heart Foundation/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
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10
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Meah MN, Wereski R, Bularga A, van Beek EJR, Dweck MR, Mills NL, Newby DE, Dey D, Williams MC, Lee KK. Coronary low-attenuation plaque and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin. Heart 2023; 109:702-709. [PMID: 36631142 PMCID: PMC10357930 DOI: 10.1136/heartjnl-2022-321867] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2022] [Accepted: 11/23/2022] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE In patients with acute chest pain who have had myocardial infarction excluded, plasma cardiac troponin I concentrations ≥5 ng/L are associated with risk of future adverse cardiovascular events. We aim to evaluate the association between cardiac troponin and coronary plaque composition in such patients. METHODS In a prespecified secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study, blinded quantitative plaque analysis was performed on 242 CT coronary angiograms of patients with acute chest pain in whom myocardial infarction was excluded. Patients were stratified by peak plasma cardiac troponin I concentration ≥5 ng/L or <5 ng/L. Associations were assessed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS The cohort was predominantly middle-aged (62±12 years) men (69%). Patients with plasma cardiac troponin I concentration ≥5 ng/L (n=161) had a higher total (median 33% (IQR 0-47) vs 0% (IQR 0-33)), non-calcified (27% (IQR 0-37) vs 0% (IQR 0-28)), calcified (2% (IQR 0-8) vs 0% (IQR 0-3)) and low-attenuation (1% (IQR 0-3) vs 0% (IQR 0-1)) coronary plaque burden compared with those with concentrations <5 ng/L (n=81; p≤0.001 for all). Low-attenuation plaque burden was independently associated with plasma cardiac troponin I concentration ≥5 ng/L after adjustment for clinical characteristics (adjusted OR per doubling 1.62 (95% CI 1.17 to 2.32), p=0.005) or presence of any visible coronary artery disease (adjusted OR per doubling 1.57 (95% CI 1.07 to 2.37), p=0.026). CONCLUSION In patients with acute chest pain but without myocardial infarction, plasma cardiac troponin I concentrations ≥5 ng/L are associated with greater burden of low-attenuation coronary plaque.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammed N Meah
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Ryan Wereski
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Anda Bularga
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Edwin J R van Beek
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Edinburgh, UK
- Edinburgh Imaging Facility, Queens Medical Research Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Marc R Dweck
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Edinburgh, UK
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - David E Newby
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Damini Dey
- Biomedical Imaging Research Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | | | - Kuan Ken Lee
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Edinburgh, UK
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11
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Lee KK, Doudesis D, Bing R, Astengo F, Perez JR, Anand A, McIntyre S, Bloor N, Sandler B, Lister S, Pollock KG, Qureshi AC, McAllister DA, Shah ASV, Mills NL. Sex Differences in Oral Anticoagulation Therapy in Patients Hospitalized With Atrial Fibrillation: A Nationwide Cohort Study. J Am Heart Assoc 2023; 12:e027211. [PMID: 36864741 PMCID: PMC10111444 DOI: 10.1161/jaha.122.027211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2022] [Accepted: 11/09/2022] [Indexed: 03/04/2023]
Abstract
Background Important disparities in the treatment and outcomes of women and men with atrial fibrillation (AF) are well recognized. Whether introduction of direct oral anticoagulants has reduced disparities in treatment is uncertain. Methods and Results All patients who had an incident hospitalization from 2010 to 2019 with nonvalvular AF in Scotland were included in the present cohort study. Community drug dispensing data were used to determine prescribed oral anticoagulation therapy and comorbidity status. Logistic regression modeling was used to evaluate patient factors associated with treatment with vitamin K antagonists and direct oral anticoagulants. A total of 172 989 patients (48% women [82 833 of 172 989]) had an incident hospitalization with nonvalvular AF in Scotland between 2010 and 2019. By 2019, factor Xa inhibitors accounted for 83.6% of all oral anticoagulants prescribed, while treatment with vitamin K antagonists and direct thrombin inhibitors declined to 15.9% and 0.6%, respectively. Women were less likely to be prescribed any oral anticoagulation therapy compared with men (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.68 [95% CI, 0.67-0.70]). This disparity was mainly attributed to vitamin K antagonists (aOR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.66-0.70]), while there was less disparity in the use of factor Xa inhibitors between women and men (aOR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.90-0.95]). Conclusions Women with nonvalvular AF were significantly less likely to be prescribed vitamin K antagonists compared with men. Most patients admitted to the hospital in Scotland with incident nonvalvular AF are now treated with factor Xa inhibitors and this is associated with fewer treatment disparities between women and men.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular ScienceUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUnited Kingdom
| | - Dimitrios Doudesis
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular ScienceUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUnited Kingdom
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of EdinburghEdinburghUnited Kingdom
| | - Rong Bing
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular ScienceUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUnited Kingdom
| | - Federica Astengo
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular ScienceUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUnited Kingdom
| | - Jesus R. Perez
- Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of GlasgowGlasgowUnited Kingdom
| | - Atul Anand
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular ScienceUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUnited Kingdom
| | - Shauna McIntyre
- Bristol Myers Squibb Pharmaceuticals LtdLondonUnited Kingdom
| | | | - Belinda Sandler
- Bristol Myers Squibb Pharmaceuticals LtdLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Steven Lister
- Bristol Myers Squibb Pharmaceuticals LtdLondonUnited Kingdom
| | | | | | - David A. McAllister
- Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of GlasgowGlasgowUnited Kingdom
| | - Anoop S. V. Shah
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular ScienceUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUnited Kingdom
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Nicholas L. Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular ScienceUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUnited Kingdom
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of EdinburghEdinburghUnited Kingdom
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12
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Bularga A, Ken Lee K, Shah AS, Anand A, Chapman AR, Tuck C, Newby DE, Jenks S, Mills NL, Kimenai DM. Impact of Patient Selection on Performance of an Early Rule-Out Pathway for Myocardial Infarction: From Research to the Real World. Circulation 2023; 147:447-449. [PMID: 36716255 PMCID: PMC9889190 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.122.062419] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Anda Bularga
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.B., K.K.L., A.A., A.R.C., C.T., D.E.N., N.L.M., D.M.K.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- Usher Institute (A.A., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.B., K.K.L., A.A., A.R.C., C.T., D.E.N., N.L.M., D.M.K.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Anoop S.V. Shah
- Department of Non-communicable Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom (A.S.V.S.)
| | - Atul Anand
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.B., K.K.L., A.A., A.R.C., C.T., D.E.N., N.L.M., D.M.K.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew R. Chapman
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.B., K.K.L., A.A., A.R.C., C.T., D.E.N., N.L.M., D.M.K.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Chris Tuck
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.B., K.K.L., A.A., A.R.C., C.T., D.E.N., N.L.M., D.M.K.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - David E. Newby
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.B., K.K.L., A.A., A.R.C., C.T., D.E.N., N.L.M., D.M.K.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Sarah Jenks
- Department Clinical Biochemistry, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, United Kingdom (S.J.)
| | - Nicholas L. Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.B., K.K.L., A.A., A.R.C., C.T., D.E.N., N.L.M., D.M.K.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- Usher Institute (A.A., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Dorien M. Kimenai
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.B., K.K.L., A.A., A.R.C., C.T., D.E.N., N.L.M., D.M.K.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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13
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Taggart C, Monterrubio-Gómez K, Roos A, Boeddinghaus J, Kimenai DM, Kadesjo E, Bularga A, Wereski R, Ferry A, Lowry M, Anand A, Lee KK, Doudesis D, Manolopoulou I, Nestelberger T, Koechlin L, Lopez-Ayala P, Mueller C, Mills NL, Vallejos CA, Chapman AR. Improving Risk Stratification for Patients With Type 2 Myocardial Infarction. J Am Coll Cardiol 2023; 81:156-168. [PMID: 36631210 PMCID: PMC9841577 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2022.10.025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2022] [Revised: 09/28/2022] [Accepted: 10/14/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite poor cardiovascular outcomes, there are no dedicated, validated risk stratification tools to guide investigation or treatment in type 2 myocardial infarction. OBJECTIVES The goal of this study was to derive and validate a risk stratification tool for the prediction of death or future myocardial infarction in patients with type 2 myocardial infarction. METHODS The T2-risk score was developed in a prospective multicenter cohort of consecutive patients with type 2 myocardial infarction. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed for the primary outcome of myocardial infarction or death at 1 year using variables selected a priori based on clinical importance. Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiving-operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration was investigated graphically. The tool was validated in a single-center cohort of consecutive patients and in a multicenter cohort study from sites across Europe. RESULTS There were 1,121, 250, and 253 patients in the derivation, single-center, and multicenter validation cohorts, with the primary outcome occurring in 27% (297 of 1,121), 26% (66 of 250), and 14% (35 of 253) of patients, respectively. The T2-risk score incorporating age, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, diabetes mellitus, myocardial ischemia on electrocardiogram, heart rate, anemia, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and maximal cardiac troponin concentration had good discrimination (AUC: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.73-0.79) for the primary outcome and was well calibrated. Discrimination was similar in the consecutive patient (AUC: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.77-0.88) and multicenter (AUC: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.64-0.83) cohorts. T2-risk provided improved discrimination over the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events 2.0 risk score in all cohorts. CONCLUSIONS The T2-risk score performed well in different health care settings and could help clinicians to prognosticate, as well as target investigation and preventative therapies more effectively. (High-Sensitivity Troponin in the Evaluation of Patients With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome [High-STEACS]; NCT01852123).
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Affiliation(s)
- Caelan Taggart
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Karla Monterrubio-Gómez
- MRC Human Genetics Unit, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Andreas Roos
- Department of Medicine, Clinical Epidemiology Division, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Emergency and Reparative Medicine, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jasper Boeddinghaus
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Dorien M Kimenai
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Erik Kadesjo
- Department of Medicine, Clinical Epidemiology Division, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Anda Bularga
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Ryan Wereski
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Amy Ferry
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Matthew Lowry
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Atul Anand
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Dimitrios Doudesis
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Ioanna Manolopoulou
- Department of Statistical Sciences, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Thomas Nestelberger
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB), University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Luca Koechlin
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB), University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Pedro Lopez-Ayala
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB), University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Christian Mueller
- Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel (CRIB), University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Catalina A Vallejos
- MRC Human Genetics Unit, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; The Alan Turing Institute, London, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew R Chapman
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
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14
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Ferry AV, Wereski R, Marshall L, Strachan FE, Schulberg SD, Bularga A, Chapman AR, Lee KK, Anand A, Mills NL. Exploring adherence to an early rule-out pathway for myocardial infarction in the emergency department using mixed-methods. Eur Heart J 2022. [DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehac544.1347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Incorporating a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assay into a care pathway for the assessment of suspected acute coronary syndrome has enabled myocardial infarction to be ruled out earlier.
Purpose
Using mixed methods, we explored adherence to an early rule-out pathway in the HiSTORIC (High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin on Presentation to Rule Out Myocardial Infarction) randomised controlled trial.
Methods
In 16,972 consecutive patients we evaluated clinician adherence to an early rule-out pathway for the assessment of suspected acute coronary syndrome. Adherence was defined in patients with presentation cardiac troponin I concentrations <5ng/L and symptom onset >2 hours from presentation without serial troponin testing (type 1 adherence); presentation troponin <5ng/L and symptom onset ≤2 hours from presentation with serial testing (type 2 adherence); or presentation troponin between 5ng/L and sex-specific 99th centile with serial testing (type 3 adherence). Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 23 clinicians to aid interpretation of the quantitative analysis. Qualitative data were coded and organized into themes.
Results
In patients with troponin <5ng/L presenting >2hr from symptom onset, adherence was achieved in 81% of patients. In patients presenting ≤2hr from symptom onset, 35% of patients had a second troponin test. In patients with an initial troponin concentration between 5ng/L and the 99th centile, 65% of patients had a second troponin test. Compared to patients managed by clinicians who were adherent to the pathway, patients with troponin over-testing (type 1 non-adherence) were more likely to be older (mean age 52±16 years versus 58±14, P<0.001) and have a history of coronary disease (11% versus 27%, P<0.001). In contrast, patients with under testing (type 2 non-adherence) tended to be younger (mean age 49±16 versus 63±15, P<0.001), female (50% versus 37%, P<0.001) and have lower presentation troponin levels (median concentration 1.0ng/L IQR 1.0 to 2.0, versus 5.0ng/L IQR 2.0–10.0) compared to those in whom testing was performed according to pathway recommendations. Semi-structured interview data revealed how pathway adherence was influenced by five main themes: guideline characteristics, patient characteristics, the healthcare practitioner, the healthcare system and scientific evidence. Clear visual pathway layout was fundamental in achieving optimal adherence. Strong clinical suspicion of acute coronary syndrome promoted repeat troponin testing and deviation from the pathway was felt to be justifiable by more senior clinicians.
Conclusion
This analysis revealed successful implementation of the early rule-out pathway with interview data aiding interpretation of trial data. Younger patients with lower troponin concentrations were less likely to receive pathway recommended serial troponin testing. Clinical judgement is one of the main reasons for discontinuation of pathway recommendations.
Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation
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Affiliation(s)
- A V Ferry
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Science , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - R Wereski
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Science , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - L Marshall
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Science , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - F E Strachan
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - S D Schulberg
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Science , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - A Bularga
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Science , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - A R Chapman
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Science , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - K K Lee
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Science , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - A Anand
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Science , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - N L Mills
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Science , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
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15
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Doudesis D, Lee KK, Bularga A, Ferry AV, Tuck C, Anand A, Boeddinghaus J, Mueller C, Greenslade JH, Pickering JW, Than MP, Cullen L, Mills NL. Machine learning to optimise use of cardiac troponin in the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. Eur Heart J 2022. [DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehac544.1349] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Guidelines recommend fixed cardiac troponin thresholds for the assessment of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, however, performance varies in important patient groups as concentrations are influenced by age, sex and comorbidities. This limitation can be addressed using machine learning algorithms.
Methods
Machine learning algorithms were developed that integrate cardiac troponin concentrations at presentation or on serial testing with age, sex and clinical features in 10,038 consecutive emergency patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. The primary outcome was an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1, type 4b or type 4c myocardial infarction. The best performing algorithm was selected for the CoDE-ACS (Collaboration for the Diagnosis and Evaluation of Acute Coronary Syndrome) decision-support tool, and performance was externally validated in 3,035 patients pooled from three prospective studies.
Findings
CoDE-ACS had excellent discrimination and calibration using cardiac troponin at presentation (area under curve [AUC] 0.959, 95% confidence interval 0.948–0.971, Brier score 0.040), in the pooled external validation cohort. At presentation, the rule-out score identified 62.1% (1,885/3,035) of all patients as low-probability of myocardial infarction with a 99.5% (99.1–99.7%) negative predictive value and 97.0% (96.3–97.6%) sensitivity. The rule-in score identified 8.3% (252/3,035) of patients as high-probability with an 83.7% (82.4–85.0%) positive predictive value and 98.5% (98.0–98.9%) specificity. Performance of the rule-out and rule-in scores was consistent across patient subgroups (Figure 1 and Figure 2). CoDE-ACS incorporating a second cardiac troponin measurement also had excellent discrimination and calibration (AUC 0.971 [0.962–0.980], Brier score 0.039) and refined the individualised probabilities in the 29.5% (898/3,035) of patients neither ruled-out or ruled-in at presentation to guide further investigation.
Conclusions
We developed and externally validated the CoDE-ACS decision-support tool using machine learning to aid in the diagnosis of myocardial infarction. CoDE-ACS had excellent diagnostic performance to rule-out and rule-in myocardial infarction at presentation, performed consistently across patient subgroups, and provided individualised probabilities to guide further care in those who require serial troponin measurements.
Conclusions
We developed and externally validated the CoDE-ACS decision-support tool using machine learning to aid in the diagnosis of myocardial infarction. CoDE-ACS had excellent diagnostic performance to rule-out and rule-in myocardial infarction at presentation, performed consistently across patient subgroups, and provided individualised probabilities to guide further care in those who require serial troponin measurements.
Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): National Institute for Health ResearchBritish Heart Foundation
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Affiliation(s)
- D Doudesis
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - K K Lee
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - A Bularga
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - A V Ferry
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - C Tuck
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - A Anand
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - J Boeddinghaus
- University of Basel, Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel and Department of Cardiology , Basel , Switzerland
| | - C Mueller
- University of Basel, Cardiovascular Research Institute Basel and Department of Cardiology , Basel , Switzerland
| | - J H Greenslade
- University of Queensland, School of Medicine , Brisbane , Australia
| | - J W Pickering
- University of Otago, Christchurch Heart Institute , Christchurch , New Zealand
| | - M P Than
- Christchurch Hospital , Christchurch , New Zealand
| | - L Cullen
- University of Queensland, School of Medicine , Brisbane , Australia
| | - N L Mills
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
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16
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Bularga A, Kimenai DM, Taggart C, Lowry M, Wereski R, McCance K, Lee KK, Anand A, Strachan FE, Tuck C, Shah ASV, Chapman AR, Newby DE, Jenks S, Mills NL. Impact of patient selection on performance of an early rule-out pathway for myocardial infarction: from research to the real world. Eur Heart J 2022. [DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehac544.1344] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Early rule-out pathways for myocardial infarction using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin are widely recommended in the assessment of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Although developed in selected patients participating in research studies, these pathways are applied more widely in clinical practice where the diagnostic performance and effectiveness of these pathways may differ.
Purpose
To evaluate the performance of an early rule-out pathway for myocardial infarction using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin in selected and consecutive unselected patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome.
Methods
Presentation and serial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentrations were measured in two cohorts of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome presenting to the Emergency Departments across three acute care hospitals in Scotland. In the unselected cohort, electronic health record data were collected on consecutive patients in whom the usual care clinician measured cardiac troponin for suspected acute coronary syndrome. In the selected cohort, patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome were approached between 8am and 8pm by research staff and written informed consent obtained. In both cohorts, the performance of the High-STEACS early rule-out pathway was evaluated for an adjudicated diagnosis of myocardial infarction (type 1, type 4b or type 4c) during the index hospital admission.
Results
The unselected and selected patient cohorts comprised of 1,242 (median age 60 [interquartile range 47–75] years, 46% women) and 1,695 (median age 61 [52–73] years, 40% women) patients respectively. Myocardial infarction was diagnosed in 6% (74/1,242) and 14% (232/1,695) of patients in the unselected and selected patient cohorts respectively. More patients had myocardial infarction ruled-out in the unselected (74% [828/1,112] versus 66% [1,102/1,678]; P<0.001), with similar negative predictive value (99.9% [95% CI 99.7%-100%] versus 99.7% [95% CI 99.4%-99.0%) and sensitivity (99.3% [95% CI 97.4%-100%] versus 98.9% [95% CI 97.6%-99.9%]; Figure 1). In the selected cohort, more patients had intermediate troponin concentrations requiring serial testing (36% versus 29%) or had myocardial infarction diagnosed (34% versus 26%; P<0.001 for both). In contrast, the positive predictive value for myocardial infarction was lower in unselected patients (26.1% [95% CI 21.2%-31.4%] versus 39.9% [95% CI 35.9%-44.0%]).
Conclusion
The prevalence of myocardial infarction is lower in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome evaluated in routine practice compared to those selected to participate in a research study. Whilst more patients have myocardial infarction accurately ruled out, the positive-predictive value in those ruled in is lower resulting in more hospital admissions with elevated cardiac troponin due to other conditions.
Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): British Heart FoundationMedical Research Council
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Affiliation(s)
- A Bularga
- University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - D M Kimenai
- University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - C Taggart
- University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - M Lowry
- University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - R Wereski
- University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - K McCance
- University of Edinburgh, Department Clinical Biochemistry, , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - K K Lee
- University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - A Anand
- University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - F E Strachan
- University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - C Tuck
- University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - A S V Shah
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Department of Cardiology , London , United Kingdom
| | - A R Chapman
- University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - D E Newby
- University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - S Jenks
- Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Department of Clinical Biochemistry , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
| | - N L Mills
- University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh , United Kingdom
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17
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Alam SR, Vinayak S, Shah A, Doolub G, Kimeu R, Horn KP, Bowen SR, Jeilan M, Lee KK, Gachoka S, Riunga F, Adam RD, Vesselle H, Joshi N, Obino M, Makhdomi K, Ombati K, Nganga E, Gitau S, Chung MH, Shah ASV. Assessment of Cardiac, Vascular, and Pulmonary Pathobiology In Vivo During Acute COVID‐19. J Am Heart Assoc 2022; 11:e026399. [DOI: 10.1161/jaha.122.026399] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Background
Acute COVID‐19–related myocardial, pulmonary, and vascular pathology and how these relate to each other remain unclear. To our knowledge, no studies have used complementary imaging techniques, including molecular imaging, to elucidate this. We used multimodality imaging and biochemical sampling in vivo to identify the pathobiology of acute COVID‐19. Specifically, we investigated the presence of myocardial inflammation and its association with coronary artery disease, systemic vasculitis, and pneumonitis.
Methods and Results
Consecutive patients presenting with acute COVID‐19 were prospectively recruited during hospital admission in this cross‐sectional study. Imaging involved computed tomography coronary angiography (identified coronary disease), cardiac 2‐deoxy‐2‐[fluorine‐18]fluoro‐D‐glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (identified vascular, cardiac, and pulmonary inflammatory cell infiltration), and cardiac magnetic resonance (identified myocardial disease) alongside biomarker sampling. Of 33 patients (median age 51 years, 94% men), 24 (73%) had respiratory symptoms, with the remainder having nonspecific viral symptoms. A total of 9 patients (35%, n=9/25) had cardiac magnetic resonance–defined myocarditis. Of these patients, 53% (n=5/8) had myocardial inflammatory cell infiltration. A total of 2 patients (5%) had elevated troponin levels. Cardiac troponin concentrations were not significantly higher in patients with and without myocarditis (8.4 ng/L [interquartile range, IQR: 4.0–55.3] versus 3.5 ng/L [IQR: 2.5–5.5];
P
=0.07) or myocardial cell infiltration (4.4 ng/L [IQR: 3.4–8.3] versus 3.5 ng/L [IQR: 2.8–7.2];
P
=0.89). No patients had obstructive coronary artery disease or vasculitis. Pulmonary inflammation and consolidation (percentage of total lung volume) was 17% (IQR: 5%–31%) and 11% (IQR: 7%–18%), respectively. Neither were associated with the presence of myocarditis.
Conclusions
Myocarditis was present in a third patients with acute COVID‐19, and the majority had inflammatory cell infiltration. Pneumonitis was ubiquitous, but this inflammation was not associated with myocarditis. The mechanism of cardiac pathology is nonischemic and not attributable to a vasculitic process.
Registration
URL:
https://www.isrctn.com
; Unique identifier: ISRCTN12154994.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shirjel R. Alam
- Department of Cardiology Manchester University Manchester United Kingdom
- Department of Cardiology North Bristol Trust Bristol United Kingdom
- Non‐communicable Disease Epidemiology London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London United Kingdom
| | - Sudhir Vinayak
- Department of Radiology and Department of Medicine Aga Khan University Nairobi Kenya
| | - Adeel Shah
- Department of Radiology and Department of Medicine Aga Khan University Nairobi Kenya
| | - Gemina Doolub
- Department of Cardiology University of Bristol Bristol United Kingdom
| | - Redemptar Kimeu
- Department of Radiology and Department of Medicine Aga Khan University Nairobi Kenya
| | - Kevin P. Horn
- Department of Radiology University of Washington Seattle WA
| | | | - Mohamed Jeilan
- Department of Radiology and Department of Medicine Aga Khan University Nairobi Kenya
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- Department of Cardiology University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK
| | - Sylvia Gachoka
- Department of Radiology and Department of Medicine Aga Khan University Nairobi Kenya
| | - Felix Riunga
- Department of Radiology and Department of Medicine Aga Khan University Nairobi Kenya
| | - Rodney D. Adam
- Department of Radiology and Department of Medicine Aga Khan University Nairobi Kenya
| | | | - Nikhil Joshi
- Department of Cardiology University of Bristol Bristol United Kingdom
| | - Mariah Obino
- Department of Radiology and Department of Medicine Aga Khan University Nairobi Kenya
| | - Khalid Makhdomi
- Department of Radiology and Department of Medicine Aga Khan University Nairobi Kenya
| | - Kevin Ombati
- Department of Radiology and Department of Medicine Aga Khan University Nairobi Kenya
| | - Edward Nganga
- Department of Radiology and Department of Medicine Aga Khan University Nairobi Kenya
| | - Samuel Gitau
- Department of Radiology and Department of Medicine Aga Khan University Nairobi Kenya
| | - Michael H. Chung
- Division of Infectious Diseases of the Department of Medicine Emory University Atlanta Georgia
| | - Anoop S. V. Shah
- Department of Radiology and Department of Medicine Aga Khan University Nairobi Kenya
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18
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Gallacher PJ, Miller-Hodges E, Shah ASV, Farrah TE, Halbesma N, Blackmur JP, Chapman AR, Adamson PD, Anand A, Strachan FE, Ferry AV, Lee KK, Berry C, Findlay I, Cruickshank A, Reid A, Gray A, Collinson PO, Apple FS, McAllister DA, Maguire D, Fox KAA, Keerie C, Weir CJ, Newby DE, Mills NL, Dhaun N. High-sensitivity cardiac troponin and the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in patients with kidney impairment. Kidney Int 2022; 102:149-159. [PMID: 35271932 DOI: 10.1016/j.kint.2022.02.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2021] [Revised: 01/25/2022] [Accepted: 02/08/2022] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
The benefit and utility of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) in the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in patients with kidney impairment is unclear. Here, we describe implementation of hs-cTnI testing on the diagnosis, management, and outcomes of myocardial infarction in patients with and without kidney impairment. Consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome enrolled in a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized controlled trial were included in this pre-specified secondary analysis. Kidney impairment was defined as an eGFR under 60mL/min/1.73m2. The index diagnosis and primary outcome of type 1 and type 4b myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death at one year were compared in patients with and without kidney impairment following implementation of hs-cTnI assay with 99th centile sex-specific diagnostic thresholds. Serum creatinine concentrations were available in 46,927 patients (mean age 61 years; 47% women), of whom 9,080 (19%) had kidney impairment. hs-cTnIs were over 99th centile in 46% and 16% of patients with and without kidney impairment. Implementation increased the diagnosis of type 1 infarction from 12.4% to 17.8%, and from 7.5% to 9.4% in patients with and without kidney impairment (both significant). Patients with kidney impairment and type 1 myocardial infarction were less likely to undergo coronary revascularization (26% versus 53%) or receive dual anti-platelets (40% versus 68%) than those without kidney impairment, and this did not change post-implementation. In patients with hs-cTnI above the 99th centile, the primary outcome occurred twice as often in those with kidney impairment compared to those without (24% versus 12%, hazard ratio 1.53, 95% confidence interval 1.31 to 1.78). Thus, hs-cTnI testing increased the identification of myocardial injury and infarction but failed to address disparities in management and outcomes between those with and without kidney impairment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter J Gallacher
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Eve Miller-Hodges
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Department of Renal Medicine, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Anoop S V Shah
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Tariq E Farrah
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Department of Renal Medicine, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - James P Blackmur
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Andrew R Chapman
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Philip D Adamson
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Christchurch Heart Institute, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand, Australia
| | - Atul Anand
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Fiona E Strachan
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Amy V Ferry
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Colin Berry
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Iain Findlay
- Department of Cardiology, Royal Alexandra Hospital, Paisley, UK
| | - Anne Cruickshank
- Department of Biochemistry, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Glasgow, UK
| | - Alan Reid
- Department of Biochemistry, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Glasgow, UK
| | - Alasdair Gray
- Emergency Medicine Research Group Edinburgh, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Paul O Collinson
- Departments of Clinical Blood Sciences and Cardiology, St. George's, University Hospitals National Health Service Trust and St. George's University of London, London, UK
| | - Fred S Apple
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Hennepin Healthcare/Hennepin County Medical Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
| | | | - Donogh Maguire
- Emergency Medicine Department, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK
| | - Keith A A Fox
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Catriona Keerie
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Christopher J Weir
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - David E Newby
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Neeraj Dhaun
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Department of Renal Medicine, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
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19
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Lee KK, Doudesis D, Anwar M, Astengo F, Chenevier-Gobeaux C, Claessens YE, Wussler D, Kozhuharov N, Strebel I, Sabti Z, deFilippi C, Seliger S, Moe G, Fernando C, Bayes-Genis A, van Kimmenade RRJ, Pinto Y, Gaggin HK, Wiemer JC, Möckel M, Rutten JHW, van den Meiracker AH, Gargani L, Pugliese NR, Pemberton C, Ibrahim I, Gegenhuber A, Mueller T, Neumaier M, Behnes M, Akin I, Bombelli M, Grassi G, Nazerian P, Albano G, Bahrmann P, Newby DE, Japp AG, Tsanas A, Shah ASV, Richards AM, McMurray JJV, Mueller C, Januzzi JL, Mills NL. Development and validation of a decision support tool for the diagnosis of acute heart failure: systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study. BMJ 2022; 377:e068424. [PMID: 35697365 PMCID: PMC9189738 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2021-068424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/25/2012] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To evaluate the diagnostic performance of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) thresholds for acute heart failure and to develop and validate a decision support tool that combines NT-proBNP concentrations with clinical characteristics. DESIGN Individual patient level data meta-analysis and modelling study. SETTING Fourteen studies from 13 countries, including randomised controlled trials and prospective observational studies. PARTICIPANTS Individual patient level data for 10 369 patients with suspected acute heart failure were pooled for the meta-analysis to evaluate NT-proBNP thresholds. A decision support tool (Collaboration for the Diagnosis and Evaluation of Heart Failure (CoDE-HF)) that combines NT-proBNP with clinical variables to report the probability of acute heart failure for an individual patient was developed and validated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Adjudicated diagnosis of acute heart failure. RESULTS Overall, 43.9% (4549/10 369) of patients had an adjudicated diagnosis of acute heart failure (73.3% (2286/3119) and 29.0% (1802/6208) in those with and without previous heart failure, respectively). The negative predictive value of the guideline recommended rule-out threshold of 300 pg/mL was 94.6% (95% confidence interval 91.9% to 96.4%); despite use of age specific rule-in thresholds, the positive predictive value varied at 61.0% (55.3% to 66.4%), 73.5% (62.3% to 82.3%), and 80.2% (70.9% to 87.1%), in patients aged <50 years, 50-75 years, and >75 years, respectively. Performance varied in most subgroups, particularly patients with obesity, renal impairment, or previous heart failure. CoDE-HF was well calibrated, with excellent discrimination in patients with and without previous heart failure (area under the receiver operator curve 0.846 (0.830 to 0.862) and 0.925 (0.919 to 0.932) and Brier scores of 0.130 and 0.099, respectively). In patients without previous heart failure, the diagnostic performance was consistent across all subgroups, with 40.3% (2502/6208) identified at low probability (negative predictive value of 98.6%, 97.8% to 99.1%) and 28.0% (1737/6208) at high probability (positive predictive value of 75.0%, 65.7% to 82.5%) of having acute heart failure. CONCLUSIONS In an international, collaborative evaluation of the diagnostic performance of NT-proBNP, guideline recommended thresholds to diagnose acute heart failure varied substantially in important patient subgroups. The CoDE-HF decision support tool incorporating NT-proBNP as a continuous measure and other clinical variables provides a more consistent, accurate, and individualised approach. STUDY REGISTRATION PROSPERO CRD42019159407.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuan Ken Lee
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Contributed equally
| | - Dimitrios Doudesis
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Contributed equally
| | - Mohamed Anwar
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Contributed equally
| | - Federica Astengo
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Yann-Erick Claessens
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Princess Grace Hospital Center, Monaco, Principality of Monaco
| | - Desiree Wussler
- Cardiovascular Research Institute of Basel, Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Department of Internal Medicine, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
| | - Nikola Kozhuharov
- Cardiovascular Research Institute of Basel, Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Liverpool Heart and Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK
| | - Ivo Strebel
- Cardiovascular Research Institute of Basel, Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Zaid Sabti
- Cardiovascular Research Institute of Basel, Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | | | - Stephen Seliger
- Division of Nephrology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Gordon Moe
- University of Toronto, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Carlos Fernando
- University of Toronto, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Antoni Bayes-Genis
- Heart Institute, Hospital Universitari Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, CIBERCV, Spain
| | | | - Yigal Pinto
- University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Hanna K Gaggin
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
- Division of Cardiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jan C Wiemer
- BRAHMS, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Hennigsdorf, Germany
| | - Martin Möckel
- Department of Emergency and Acute Medicine with Chest Pain Units, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Campus Mitte and Virchow, Berlin, Germany
| | - Joost H W Rutten
- Department of Internal Medicine, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, Netherlands
| | - Anton H van den Meiracker
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Pharmacology and Vascular Medicine, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Luna Gargani
- Department of Surgical, Medical and Molecular Pathology and Critical Care Medicine, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
| | - Nicola R Pugliese
- Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
| | | | - Irwani Ibrahim
- Emergency Medicine Department, National University Hospital, Singapore
| | - Alfons Gegenhuber
- Department of Internal Medicine, Krankenhaus Bad Ischl, Bad Ischl, Austria
| | - Thomas Mueller
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Hospital Voecklabruck, Voecklabruck, Austria
| | - Michael Neumaier
- Institute for Clinical Chemistry, University Medical Centre Mannheim, Faculty of Medicine Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Michael Behnes
- First Department of Medicine, University Medical Centre Mannheim, Faculty of Medicine Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Ibrahim Akin
- First Department of Medicine, University Medical Centre Mannheim, Faculty of Medicine Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Michele Bombelli
- University of Milan Bicocca, ASST-Brianza, Pio XI Hospital of Desio, Internal Medicine, Desio, Italy
| | - Guido Grassi
- Clinica Medica, University Milan Bicocca, Milan, Italy
| | - Peiman Nazerian
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi, Florence, Italy
| | - Giovanni Albano
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi, Florence, Italy
| | - Philipp Bahrmann
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Cardiology, University Hospital of Heidelberg, Ruprecht-Karls University Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - David E Newby
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Alan G Japp
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Anoop S V Shah
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - A Mark Richards
- Christchurch Heart Institute, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand
- Cardiovascular Research Institute, National University Heart Centre Singapore, Singapore
| | - John J V McMurray
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Christian Mueller
- Cardiovascular Research Institute of Basel, Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - James L Januzzi
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
- Division of Cardiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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20
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Ahmed HA, Mohamed J, Akuku IG, Lee KK, Alam SR, Perel P, Shah J, Ali MK, Eskander S, Chung MH, Shah AS. Cardiovascular risk factors and markers of myocardial injury and inflammation in people living with HIV in Nairobi, Kenya: a pilot cross-sectional study. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e062352. [PMID: 35667720 PMCID: PMC9171254 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-062352] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To determine the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and explore associations with high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hscTnI) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) in people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Kenya. DESIGN Pilot cross-sectional study. SETTING Data were collected from community HIV clinics across two sites in Nairobi, Kenya, from July 2019 to May 2020. PARTICIPANTS Convenience sample of 200 PLHIV (≥30 years with no prior history of CVD). OUTCOME MEASURES Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and its association with hsTnI and hsCRP levels. RESULTS Across 200 PLHIV (median age 46 years, IQR 38-53; 61% women), the prevalence of hypercholesterolaemia (total cholesterol >6.1 mmol/L) and hypertension were 19% (n=30/199) and 30% (n=60/200), respectively. Smoking and diabetes prevalence was 3% (n=5/200) and 4% (n=7/200). HscTnI was below the limit of quantification (<2.5 ng/L) in 65% (n=109/169). High (>3 mg/L), intermediate (1-3 mg/L) and low (<1 mg/L) hsCRP levels were found in 38% (n=75/198), 33% (n=65/198) and 29% (n=58/198), respectively. Framingham laboratory-based risk scores classified 83% of PLHIV at low risk with 12% and 5% at intermediate and high risk, respectively. Older age (adjusted OR (aOR) per year increase 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.08) and systolic blood pressure (140-159 mm Hg (aOR 2.96; 95% CI 1.09 to 7.90) and >160 mm Hg (aOR 4.68, 95% CI 1.55 to 14) compared with <140 mm Hg) were associated with hscTnI levels. No associations were observed between hsCRP and CVD risk factors. CONCLUSION The majority of PLHIV-using traditional risk estimation systems-have a low estimated CVD risk likely reflecting a younger aged population predominantly consisting of women. Hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia were common while smoking and diabetes rates remained low. While hscTnI values were associated with increasing age and raised blood pressure, no associations between hsCRP levels and traditional cardiovascular risk factors were observed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hassan Adan Ahmed
- Internal Medicine, The Aga Khan University Hospital Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Jeilan Mohamed
- Internal Medicine, The Aga Khan University Hospital Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Isaiah G Akuku
- Institute of Tropical and Infectious Diseases, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Shirjel R Alam
- Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Cardiology, North Bristol Trust, Bristol, UK
| | - Pablo Perel
- Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jasmit Shah
- Internal Medicine, The Aga Khan University Hospital Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Mohammed K Ali
- Hubert Department of Global Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Sherry Eskander
- Department of Medicine, Coptic Hospital and Coptic Hope Center for Infectious Diseases, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Michael H Chung
- Department of Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Anoop Sv Shah
- Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK
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21
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Doudesis D, Lee KK, Yang J, Wereski R, Shah ASV, Tsanas A, Anand A, Pickering JW, Than MP, Mills NL. Validation of the myocardial-ischaemic-injury-index machine learning algorithm to guide the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in a heterogenous population: a prespecified exploratory analysis. Lancet Digit Health 2022; 4:e300-e308. [PMID: 35461689 PMCID: PMC9052331 DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(22)00025-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2021] [Revised: 12/06/2021] [Accepted: 02/01/2022] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Diagnostic pathways for myocardial infarction rely on fixed troponin thresholds, which do not recognise that troponin varies by age, sex, and time within individuals. To overcome this limitation, we recently introduced a machine learning algorithm that predicts the likelihood of myocardial infarction. Our aim was to evaluate whether this algorithm performs well in routine clinical practice and predicts subsequent events. METHODS The myocardial-ischaemic-injury-index (MI3) algorithm was validated in a prespecified exploratory analysis using data from a multi-centre randomised trial done in Scotland, UK that included consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome undergoing serial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I measurement. Patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were excluded. MI3 incorporates age, sex, and two troponin measurements to compute a value (0-100) reflecting an individual's likelihood of myocardial infarction during the index visit and estimates diagnostic performance metrics (including area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve, and the sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value) at the computed score. Model performance for an index diagnosis of myocardial infarction (type 1 or type 4b), and for subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death at 1 year was determined using the previously defined low-probability threshold (1·6) and high-probability MI3 threshold (49·7). The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01852123. FINDINGS In total, 20 761 patients (64 years [SD 16], 9597 [46%] women) enrolled between June 10, 2013, and March 3, 2016, were included from the High-STEACS trial cohort, of whom 3272 (15·8%) had myocardial infarction. MI3 had an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0·949 (95% CI 0·946-0·952) identifying 12 983 (62·5%) patients as low-probability for myocardial infarction at the pre-specified threshold (MI3 score <1·6; sensitivity 99·3% [95% CI 99·0-99·6], negative predictive value 99·8% [99·8-99·9]), and 2961 (14·3%) as high-probability at the pre-specified threshold (MI3 score ≥49·7; specificity 95·0% [94·6-95·3], positive predictive value 70·4% [68·7-72·0]). At 1 year, subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death occurred more often in high-probability patients than low-probability patients (520 [17·6%] of 2961 vs 197 [1·5%] of 12 983], p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION In consecutive patients undergoing serial cardiac troponin measurement for suspected acute coronary syndrome, the MI3 algorithm accurately estimated the likelihood of myocardial infarction and predicted subsequent adverse cardiovascular events. By providing individual probabilities the MI3 algorithm could improve the diagnosis and assessment of risk in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. FUNDING Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, and NHSX.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dimitrios Doudesis
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Jason Yang
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Ryan Wereski
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Anoop S V Shah
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Atul Anand
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - John W Pickering
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Christchurch Hospital, Christchurch, New Zealand; Christchurch Heart Institute, Department of Medicine, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Martin P Than
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Christchurch Hospital, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
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22
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Fitzsimons SJ, Evans JDW, Rassl DM, Lee KK, Strachan FE, Parameshwar J, Mills NL, Pettit SJ. High-sensitivity Cardiac Troponin Is Not Associated With Acute Cellular Rejection After Heart Transplantation. Transplantation 2022; 106:1024-1030. [PMID: 34241986 DOI: 10.1097/tp.0000000000003876] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute cellular rejection (ACR) is common in the first year after cardiac transplantation, and regular surveillance endomyocardial biopsy (EMB) is required. An inexpensive, simple noninvasive diagnostic test would be useful. Prior studies suggest cardiac troponin (cTn) has potential as a "rule-out" test to minimize the use of EMB. Our aim was to determine whether a new high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) assay would have utility as a "rule-out" test for ACR after heart transplantation. METHODS Blood samples at patient follow-up visits were collected and stored over a period of 5 y. Serum cTnI concentrations were measured using the ARCHITECTSTAT hs-cTnI assay and compared with an EMB performed on the same day. Receiver-operator curve analysis based on mixed-effects logistic regression models that account for repeated measurements in individuals was performed to determine a serum troponin level below which ACR could be reliably excluded. RESULTS One hundred seventy patients had 883 serum hs-cTnI results paired to a routine surveillance EMB. Fifty-one (6%) EMB showed significant ACR (grade ≥2R). Receiver-operator curve analysis approximated the null hypothesis area under the curve 0.509 (95% CI, 0.428-0.591). Sub-analysis including repeated hs-cTnI levels in a single individual, and early (<3 mo) EMB also showed no diagnostic utility of hs-cTnI measurement (area under the curve 0.512). CONCLUSIONS In the largest published study to date, we found no association between hs-cTnI concentration and the presence of significant ACR on surveillance EMB. Measurement of hs-cTnI may not be a useful technique for diagnosis or exclusion of ACR after heart transplantation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah J Fitzsimons
- Transplant Unit, Royal Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Jonathan D W Evans
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Doris M Rassl
- Department of Pathology, Royal Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Center for Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Fiona E Strachan
- BHF Center for Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Jayan Parameshwar
- Transplant Unit, Royal Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Center for Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Stephen J Pettit
- Transplant Unit, Royal Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, United Kingdom
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23
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Sandeman D, Syed MBJ, Kimenai DM, Lee KK, Anand A, Joshi SS, Dinnel L, Wenham PR, Campbell K, Jarvie M, Galloway D, Anderson M, Roy B, Andrews JPM, Strachan FE, Ferry AV, Chapman AR, Elsby S, Francis M, Cargill R, Shah ASV, Mills NL. Implementation of an early rule-out pathway for myocardial infarction using a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T assay. Open Heart 2021; 8:e001769. [PMID: 34824100 PMCID: PMC8627412 DOI: 10.1136/openhrt-2021-001769] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2021] [Accepted: 10/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/04/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) concentrations below the limit of detection at presentation are low risk. We aim to determine whether implementing this approach facilitates the safe early discharge of patients. METHODS In a prospective single-centre cohort study, consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome were included before (standard care) and after (intervention) implementation of an early rule-out pathway. During standard care, myocardial infarction was ruled out if hs-cTnT concentrations were <99th centile (14 ng/L) at presentation and at 6-12 hours after symptom onset. In the intervention, patients were ruled out if hs-cTnT concentrations were <5 ng/L at presentation and symptoms present for ≥3 hours or were ≥5 ng/L and unchanged within the reference range at 3 hours. We compared duration of stay (efficacy) and all-cause death at 1 year (safety) before and after implementation. RESULTS We included 10 315 consecutive patients (64±16 years, 46% women) with 6642 (64%) and 3673 (36%) in the standard care and intervention groups, respectively. Duration of stay was reduced from 534 (IQR, 220-2279) to 390 (IQR, 218-1910) min (p<0.001) after implementation. At 1 year, all-cause death occurred in 10.9% (721 of 6642) and 10.4% (381 of 3673) of patients in the standard care group (referent) and intervention group, respectively (adjusted OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.18). CONCLUSION In patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, implementing an early rule-out pathway using hs-cTnT concentrations <5 ng/L at presentation reduced the duration of stay in hospital without compromising safety.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Maaz B J Syed
- Division of Clinical and Surgical Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Dorien M Kimenai
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Atul Anand
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Shruti S Joshi
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | | | - Ken Campbell
- Biochemistry Department, NHS Fife, Kirkcaldy, UK
| | - Mary Jarvie
- Biochemistry Department, NHS Fife, Kirkcaldy, UK
| | | | | | - Bappa Roy
- Emergency Department, NHS Fife, Kirkcaldy, UK
| | - Jack P M Andrews
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Fiona E Strachan
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Amy V Ferry
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Andrew R Chapman
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Sarah Elsby
- Information Services, NHS Fife, Dunfermline, UK
| | | | | | - Anoop S V Shah
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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24
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Doudesis D, Lee KK, Anwar M, Astengo F, Newby D, Japp A, Tsanas A, Shah A, Richards M, McMurray J, Mueller C, Januzzi J, Mills N. Machine learning to aid in the diagnosis of acute heart failure in the emergency department. Eur Heart J 2021. [DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehab724.1040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and mid-regional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MRproANP) testing are recommended to aid in the diagnosis of acute heart failure. However, the application of these biomarkers for optimal diagnostic performance is uncertain.
Methods
We performed a systematic review and harmonised individual patient-level data to evaluate the diagnostic performance of BNP and MRproANP for the diagnosis of acute heart failure using random-effects meta-analysis. We subsequently developed and externally validated a decision-support tool called CoDE-HF for both BNP and MRproANP that combines the natriuretic peptide concentrations with clinical variables using machine learning to report the probability of acute heart failure for an individual patient.
Results
Fourteen studies from 12 countries provided individual patient-level data in 8,493 patients for BNP and 3,847 patients for MRproANP, in whom, 48.3% (4,105/8,493) and 41.3% (1,611/3899) had an adjudicated diagnosis of acute heart failure, respectively. The negative and positive predictive values of guideline-recommended thresholds for BNP (100 pg/mL) and MR-proANP (120 pg/mL) were 93.6% (95% confidence interval 88.4–96.6%) and 68.8% (62.9–74.2%), and 95.6% (92.2–97.6%) and 64.8% (56.3–72.5%), respectively. However, we observed significant heterogeneity in the diagnostic performance across important patient subgroups (Figure 1). In the external validation cohort, CoDE-HF was well calibrated with excellent discrimination in those without prior acute heart failure for both BNP and MRproANP (area under the curve of 0.946 [0.933–0.958] and 0.943 [0.921–0.964], and Brier scores of 0.105 and 0.073, respectively). CoDE-HF performed consistently across all subgroups for both BNP and MRproANP, and identified 30% and 65.7% at low-probability (negative predictive value of 99.1% [98.8–99.3%] and 99.1% [98.8–99.4%]), and 30% and 17.3% at high-probability (positive predictive value of 91.3% [90.7–91.9%] and 70.0% [68.5–71.4%]) in those without prior heart failure, respectively (Figure 2).
Conclusion
In an international collaborative analysis, we observed that guideline-recommended thresholds for BNP and MRproANP to diagnose acute heart failure varied significantly across patient subgroups. A decision-support tool using machine learning to combine natriuretic peptides as a continuous measure and other clinical variables provides a more accurate and individualised approach.
Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): Medical Research Council and British Heart Foundation Figure 1. NPV of BNP threshold (100 pg/mL)Figure 2. NPV of the CoDE-HF rule-out score
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Affiliation(s)
- D Doudesis
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - K K Lee
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - M Anwar
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - F Astengo
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - D Newby
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - A Japp
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - A Tsanas
- University of Edinburgh, Usher Institute, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - A Shah
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - M Richards
- University of Otago, Christchurch Heart Institute, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - J McMurray
- University of Glasgow, BHF Cardiovascular Research Centre, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - C Mueller
- University Hospital Basel, Cardiovascular Research Institute of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - J Januzzi
- Massachusetts General Hospital, Division of Cardiology, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - N Mills
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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25
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Bularga A, Wereski R, Taggart C, Lowry M, Singh T, Lee KK, Anand A, Shah ASV, Ross DA, Perry MR, Dweck MR, Newby DE, Chapman AR, Mills NL. Mechanisms of myocardial injury and clinical outcomes in patients hospitalised with suspected COVID-19. Eur Heart J 2021. [DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehab724.1154] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Myocardial injury is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19. However, the prognostic role of myocardial injury in COVID-19 compared to other acute illnesses and the underlying mechanisms of injury are poorly understood.
Methods
In a prospective, multi-centre, cohort study conducted in secondary and tertiary care hospitals in Scotland, all consecutive patients with suspected COVID-19 underwent cardiac troponin (ARCHITECTSTAT high-sensitive troponin I (hs-cTnI) assay; Abbott Laboratories) testing in plasma that was surplus to clinical requirements. The results were not reported unless required by the attending clinician. We evaluated the prevalence of myocardial injury, mechanisms and outcomes in all patients. In those with any hs-cTnI concentration above the sex-specific 99th centile the diagnosis was adjudicated according to the 4th Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction. The primary outcome of all-cause mortality was compared in those with and without myocardial injury and COVID-19 by cox regression adjusted for age, sex, renal function and co-morbidities.
Results
A total of 2,916 (median age 69 [interquartile range, IQR 54–79] years, 53% women) consecutive patients with suspected COVID-19 were followed up for 228 [IQR 203–249] days. Myocardial injury occurred in 26% (750/2,916) with a median troponin concentration of 66 [35–178] ng/L; the prevalence was 41% (46/112) and 25% (704/2,804) in those with and without COVID-19, respectively. The most common mechanism was acute non-ischaemic myocardial injury occurring in 80% (37/46) and 71% (502/704) of patients with and without COVID-19, respectively. Type 1 myocardial infarction (2% and 4%), type 2 myocardial infarction (7% and 14%) and chronic myocardial injury (11% and 11%) were less common and only one patient had confirmed myocarditis. In patients with myocardial injury mortality was increased compared to those without (P<0.001 log rank), whether they had COVID-19 (54% [25/46] versus 26% [17/66]) or not (35% [248/704] versus 14% [294/2100]). Myocardial injury was an independent predictor of death in all patients (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.71 to 2.43), but this excess risk was not higher in patients with COVID-19 (aHR 1.58, 95% CI 0.75 to 3.15) compared to those without the condition (aHR 2.01, 95% CI 1.81 to 2.49).
Conclusion
Myocardial injury is common in hospitalised patients with suspected COVID-19 whether or not COVID-19 was the cause of their presentation. The majority of patients had acute non-ischaemic myocardial injury rather than a defined cardiac condition. Despite this the presence of myocardial injury was an independent predictor of death in all hospitalised patients.
Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation Kaplan-Meier curve for all-cause death
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Affiliation(s)
- A Bularga
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - R Wereski
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - C Taggart
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - M Lowry
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - T Singh
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - K K Lee
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - A Anand
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - A S V Shah
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Department of Cardiology, London, United Kingdom
| | - D A Ross
- Western General Hospital, Regional Infectious Disease Unit, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - M R Perry
- Western General Hospital, Regional Infectious Disease Unit, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - M R Dweck
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - D E Newby
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - A R Chapman
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - N L Mills
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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26
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Lee KK, Bularga A, O'Brien R, Ferry AV, Doudesis D, Fujisawa T, Kelly S, Stewart S, Wereski R, Cranley D, van Beek EJR, Lowe DJ, Newby DE, Williams MC, Gray AJ, Mills NL. Troponin-Guided Coronary Computed Tomographic Angiography After Exclusion of Myocardial Infarction. J Am Coll Cardiol 2021; 78:1407-1417. [PMID: 34593122 PMCID: PMC8482793 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2021.07.055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2021] [Revised: 07/28/2021] [Accepted: 07/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome in whom myocardial infarction has been excluded are at risk of future adverse cardiac events. OBJECTIVES This study evaluated the usefulness of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) to select patients for further investigation after myocardial infarction has been excluded. METHODS This is a prospective cohort study of patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected acute coronary syndrome and hs-cTnI concentrations below the sex-specific 99th percentile. Patients were recruited in a 2:1 fashion, stratified by peak hs-cTnI concentration above and below the risk stratification threshold of 5 ng/L. All patients underwent coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) after hospital discharge. RESULTS Overall, 250 patients were recruited (61.4 ± 12.2 years 31% women) in whom 62.4% (156 of 250 patients) had coronary artery disease (CAD). Patients with intermediate hs-cTnI concentrations (between 5 ng/L and the sex-specific 99th percentile) were more likely to have CAD than those with hs-cTnI concentrations <5 ng/L (71.9% [120 of 167 patients] vs 43.4% [36 of 83 patients]; odds ratio: 3.33; 95% CI: 1.92-5.78). Conversely, there was no association between anginal symptoms and CAD (63.2% [67 of 106 patients] vs 61.8% [89 of 144 patients]; odds ratio: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.48-1.76). Most patients with CAD did not have a previous diagnosis (53.2%; 83 of 156 patients) and were not on antiplatelet and statin therapies (63.5%; 99 of 156 patients) before they underwent CCTA. CONCLUSIONS In patients who had myocardial infarction excluded, CAD was 3× more likely in those with intermediate hs-cTnI concentrations compared with low hs-cTnI concentrations. In such patients, CCTA could help to identify those with occult CAD and to target preventative treatments, thereby improving clinical outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Anda Bularga
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Rachel O'Brien
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Emergency Medicine Research Group, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Amy V Ferry
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Dimitrios Doudesis
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Takeshi Fujisawa
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Shauna Kelly
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Stacey Stewart
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Ryan Wereski
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Denise Cranley
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Edwin J R van Beek
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Edinburgh Imaging Facility QMRI (The Queen's Medical Research Institute), University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - David J Lowe
- University of Glasgow, School of Medicine, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - David E Newby
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Michelle C Williams
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Edinburgh Imaging Facility QMRI (The Queen's Medical Research Institute), University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Alasdair J Gray
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Emergency Medicine Research Group, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
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27
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Kimenai DM, Shah ASV, McAllister DA, Lee KK, Tsanas A, Meex SJR, Porteous DJ, Hayward C, Campbell A, Sattar N, Mills NL, Welsh P. Sex Differences in Cardiac Troponin I and T and the Prediction of Cardiovascular Events in the General Population. Clin Chem 2021; 67:1351-1360. [PMID: 34240125 PMCID: PMC8486023 DOI: 10.1093/clinchem/hvab109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2021] [Accepted: 05/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cardiac troponin concentrations differ in women and men, but how this influences risk prediction and whether a sex-specific approach is required is unclear. We evaluated whether sex influences the predictive ability of cardiac troponin I and T for cardiovascular events in the general population. METHODS High-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) I and T were measured in the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study of randomly selected volunteers drawn from the general population between 2006 and 2011. Cox-regression models evaluated associations between hs-cTnI and hs-cTnT and the primary outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. RESULTS In 19 501 (58% women, mean age 47 years) participants, the primary outcome occurred in 2.7% (306/11 375) of women and 5.1% (411/8126) of men during the median follow-up period of 7.9 (IQR, 7.1-9.2) years. Cardiac troponin I and T concentrations were lower in women than men (P < 0.001 for both), and both were more strongly associated with cardiovascular events in women than men. For example, at a hs-cTnI concentration of 10 ng/L, the hazard ratio relative to the limit of blank was 9.7 (95% CI 7.6-12.4) and 5.6 (95% CI 4.7-6.6) for women and men, respectively. The hazard ratio for hs-cTnT at a concentration of 10 ng/L relative to the limit of blank was 3.7 (95% CI 3.1-4.3) and 2.2 (95% CI 2.0-2.5) for women and men, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Cardiac troponin concentrations differ in women and men and are stronger predictors of cardiovascular events in women. Sex-specific approaches are required to provide equivalent risk prediction.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Anoop S V Shah
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Steven J R Meex
- Central Diagnostic Laboratory, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, the Netherlands
- CARIM School for Cardiovascular Diseases, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands
| | - David J Porteous
- Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Caroline Hayward
- Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Archie Campbell
- Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Naveed Sattar
- Institute of Cardiovascular & Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Paul Welsh
- Institute of Cardiovascular & Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuan Ken Lee
- British Heart Foundation/Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom (K.K.L., R.W., M.C.W., N.L.M.)
| | - Ryan Wereski
- British Heart Foundation/Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom (K.K.L., R.W., M.C.W., N.L.M.)
| | - Michelle C Williams
- British Heart Foundation/Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom (K.K.L., R.W., M.C.W., N.L.M.)
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- British Heart Foundation/Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom (K.K.L., R.W., M.C.W., N.L.M.)
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom (N.L.M.)
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Wereski R, Kimenai DM, Taggart C, Doudesis D, Lee KK, Lowry MT, Bularga A, Lowe DJ, Fujisawa T, Apple FS, Collinson PO, Anand A, Chapman AR, Mills NL. Cardiac Troponin Thresholds and Kinetics to Differentiate Myocardial Injury and Myocardial Infarction. Circulation 2021; 144:528-538. [PMID: 34167318 PMCID: PMC8360674 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.121.054302] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2021] [Accepted: 07/07/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although the 99th percentile is the recommended diagnostic threshold for myocardial infarction, some guidelines also advocate the use of higher troponin thresholds to rule in myocardial infarction at presentation. It is unclear whether the magnitude or change in troponin concentration can differentiate causes of myocardial injury and infarction in practice. METHODS In a secondary analysis of a multicenter randomized controlled trial, we identified 46 092 consecutive patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome without ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentrations at presentation and on serial testing were compared between patients with myocardial injury and infarction. The positive predictive value and specificity were determined at the sex-specific 99th percentile upper reference limit and rule-in thresholds of 64 ng/L and 5-fold of the upper reference limit for a diagnosis of type 1 myocardial infarction. RESULTS Troponin was above the 99th percentile in 8188 patients (18%). The diagnosis was type 1 or type 2 myocardial infarction in 50% and 14% and acute or chronic myocardial injury in 20% and 16%, respectively. Troponin concentrations were similar at presentation in type 1 (median [25th-75th percentile] 91 [30-493] ng/L) and type 2 (50 [22-147] ng/L) myocardial infarction and in acute (50 [26-134] ng/L) and chronic (51 [31-130] ng/L) myocardial injury. The 99th percentile and rule-in thresholds of 64 ng/L and 5-fold upper reference limit gave a positive predictive value of 57% (95% CI, 56%-58%), 59% (58%-61%), and 62% (60%-64%) and a specificity of 96% (96%-96%), 96% (96%-96%), and 98% (97%-98%), respectively. The absolute, relative, and rate of change in troponin concentration were highest in patients with type 1 myocardial infarction (P<0.001 for all). Discrimination improved when troponin concentration and change in troponin were combined compared with troponin concentration at presentation alone (area under the curve, 0.661 [0.642-0.680] versus 0.613 [0.594-0.633]). CONCLUSIONS Although we observed important differences in the kinetics, cardiac troponin concentrations at presentation are insufficient to distinguish type 1 myocardial infarction from other causes of myocardial injury or infarction in practice and should not guide management decisions in isolation. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01852123.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan Wereski
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (R.W., C.T., D.D., K.K.L., M.T.H.L., A.B., T.F., A.A., A.R.C., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Caelan Taggart
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (R.W., C.T., D.D., K.K.L., M.T.H.L., A.B., T.F., A.A., A.R.C., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Dimitrios Doudesis
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (R.W., C.T., D.D., K.K.L., M.T.H.L., A.B., T.F., A.A., A.R.C., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
- Usher Institute (D.M.K., D.D., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (R.W., C.T., D.D., K.K.L., M.T.H.L., A.B., T.F., A.A., A.R.C., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Matthew T.H. Lowry
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (R.W., C.T., D.D., K.K.L., M.T.H.L., A.B., T.F., A.A., A.R.C., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Anda Bularga
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (R.W., C.T., D.D., K.K.L., M.T.H.L., A.B., T.F., A.A., A.R.C., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - David J. Lowe
- University of Glasgow, School of Medicine, UK (D.J.L.)
| | - Takeshi Fujisawa
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (R.W., C.T., D.D., K.K.L., M.T.H.L., A.B., T.F., A.A., A.R.C., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Fred S. Apple
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Hennepin Healthcare/Hennepin County Medical Center and University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.S.A.)
| | - Paul O. Collinson
- Department of Clinical Blood Sciences and Cardiology, St. George’s University of London, UK (P.O.C.)
| | - Atul Anand
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (R.W., C.T., D.D., K.K.L., M.T.H.L., A.B., T.F., A.A., A.R.C., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Andrew R. Chapman
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (R.W., C.T., D.D., K.K.L., M.T.H.L., A.B., T.F., A.A., A.R.C., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Nicholas L. Mills
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (R.W., C.T., D.D., K.K.L., M.T.H.L., A.B., T.F., A.A., A.R.C., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
- Usher Institute (D.M.K., D.D., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, UK
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30
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Shah AS, Lee KK, Pérez JAR, Campbell D, Astengo F, Logue J, Gallacher PJ, Katikireddi SV, Bing R, Alam SR, Anand A, Sudlow C, Fischbacher CM, Lewsey J, Perel P, Newby DE, Mills NL, McAllister DA. Clinical burden, risk factor impact and outcomes following myocardial infarction and stroke: A 25-year individual patient level linkage study. Lancet Reg Health Eur 2021; 7:100141. [PMID: 34405203 PMCID: PMC8351196 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100141] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding trends in the incidence and outcomes of myocardial infarction and stroke, and how these are influenced by changes in cardiovascular risk factors can inform health policy and healthcare provision. METHODS We identified all patients 30 years or older with myocardial infarction or stroke in Scotland. Risk factor levels were determined from national health surveys. Incidence, potential impact fractions and burden attributable to risk factor changes were calculated. Risk of subsequent fatal and non-fatal events (myocardial infarction, stroke, bleeding and heart failure hospitalization) were calculated with multi-state models. FINDINGS From 1990 to 2014, there were 372,873 (71±13 years) myocardial infarctions and 290,927 (74±13 years) ischemic or hemorrhagic strokes. Age-standardized incidence per 100,000 fell from 1,069 (95% confidence interval, 1,024-1,116) to 276 (263-290) for myocardial infarction and from 608 (581-636) to 188 (178-197) for ischemic stroke. Systolic blood pressure, smoking and cholesterol decreased, but body-mass index increased, and diabetes prevalence doubled. Changes in risk factors accounted for a 74% (57-91%) reduction in myocardial infarction and 68% (55-83%) reduction in ischemic stroke. Following myocardial infarction, the risk of death decreased (30% to 20%), but non-fatal events increased (20% to 24%) whereas the risk of both death (47% to 34%) and non-fatal events (22% to 17%) decreased following stroke. INTERPRETATION Over the last 25 years, substantial reductions in myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke incidence are attributable to major shifts in risk factor levels. Deaths following the index event decreased for both myocardial infarction and stroke, but rates remained substantially higher for stroke. FUNDING British heart foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anoop S.V. Shah
- Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,London, United Kingdom
- Department of Cardiology, Imperial College NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | | | - Desmond Campbell
- Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Federica Astengo
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | | | - Peter James Gallacher
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | | | - Rong Bing
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Shirjel R. Alam
- Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,London, United Kingdom
| | - Atul Anand
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Catherine Sudlow
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | | | - Jim Lewsey
- Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Pablo Perel
- Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,London, United Kingdom
| | - David E. Newby
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Nicholas L. Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - David A. McAllister
- Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
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Bularga A, Meah MN, Doudesis D, Shah ASV, Mills NL, Newby DE, Lee KK. Duration of dual antiplatelet therapy and stability of coronary heart disease: a 60 000-patient meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Open Heart 2021; 8:e001707. [PMID: 34341097 PMCID: PMC8330558 DOI: 10.1136/openhrt-2021-001707] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2021] [Accepted: 07/13/2021] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) has important implications for clinical outcomes in coronary disease. However, the optimal DAPT duration remains uncertain. METHODS AND RESULTS We searched four major databases for randomised controlled trials comparing long-term (≥12 months) with short-term (≤6 months) or shorter (≤3 months) DAPT in patients with coronary syndromes. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were any bleeding and major bleeding (safety), cardiac death, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, revascularisation and stroke (efficacy). Nineteen randomised controlled trials (n=60 111) satisfied inclusion criteria, 8 assessed ≤3 months DAPT. Compared with long-term (≥12 months), short-term DAPT (≤6 months) was associated with a trend towards reduced all-cause mortality (RR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.80 to 1.01) and significant bleeding reduction (RR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.55 to 0.83 and RR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.56 to 0.77 for major and any bleeding, respectively). There were no significant differences in efficacy outcomes. These associations persisted in sensitivity analysis comparing shorter duration DAPT (≤3 months) to long-term DAPT (≥12 months) for all-cause mortality (RR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.79 to 1.05). In subgroup analysis, short-term DAPT was associated with lower risk of bleeding in patients with acute or chronic coronary syndromes (RR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.54 to 0.81 and RR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.33 to 0.65, respectively), but higher risk of stent thrombosis in acute coronary syndrome (RR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.17 vs RR: 1.25, 95% CI 0.44 to 3.58). CONCLUSION Our meta-analysis suggests that short (≤6 months) and shorter (≤3 months) durations DAPT are associated with lower risk of bleeding, equivalent efficacy and a trend towards lower all-cause mortality irrespective of coronary artery disease stability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anda Bularga
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh Division of Clinical and Surgical Sciences, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Mohammed N Meah
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh Division of Clinical and Surgical Sciences, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Dimitrios Doudesis
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh Division of Clinical and Surgical Sciences, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Anoop S V Shah
- Department of Non-Communicable Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Cardiology, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh Division of Clinical and Surgical Sciences, Edinburgh, UK
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh Division of Health Sciences, Edinburgh, UK
| | - David E Newby
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh Division of Clinical and Surgical Sciences, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh Division of Clinical and Surgical Sciences, Edinburgh, UK
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Anand A, Lee KK, Chapman AR, Ferry AV, Adamson PD, Strachan FE, Berry C, Findlay I, Cruikshank A, Reid A, Collinson PO, Apple FS, McAllister DA, Maguire D, Fox KA, Newby DE, Tuck C, Harkess R, Keerie C, Weir CJ, Parker RA, Gray A, Shah AS, Mills NL. High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin on Presentation to Rule Out Myocardial Infarction: A Stepped-Wedge Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial. Circulation 2021; 143:2214-2224. [PMID: 33752439 PMCID: PMC8177493 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.120.052380] [Citation(s) in RCA: 71] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2020] [Accepted: 09/16/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND High-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays enable myocardial infarction to be ruled out earlier, but the safety and efficacy of this approach is uncertain. We investigated whether an early rule-out pathway is safe and effective for patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. METHODS We performed a stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial in the emergency departments of 7 acute care hospitals in Scotland. Consecutive patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome between December 2014 and December 2016 were included. Sites were randomized to implement an early rule-out pathway where myocardial infarction was excluded if high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentrations were <5 ng/L at presentation. During a previous validation phase, myocardial infarction was ruled out when troponin concentrations were <99th percentile at 6 to 12 hours after symptom onset. The coprimary outcome was length of stay (efficacy) and myocardial infarction or cardiac death after discharge at 30 days (safety). Patients were followed for 1 year to evaluate safety and other secondary outcomes. RESULTS We enrolled 31 492 patients (59±17 years of age [mean±SD]; 45% women) with troponin concentrations <99th percentile at presentation. Length of stay was reduced from 10.1±4.1 to 6.8±3.9 hours (adjusted geometric mean ratio, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.73-0.83]; P<0.001) after implementation and the proportion of patients discharged increased from 50% to 71% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.59 [95% CI, 1.45-1.75]). Noninferiority was not demonstrated for the 30-day safety outcome (upper limit of 1-sided 95% CI for adjusted risk difference, 0.70% [noninferiority margin 0.50%]; P=0.068), but the observed differences favored the early rule-out pathway (0.4% [57/14 700] versus 0.3% [56/16 792]). At 1 year, the safety outcome occurred in 2.7% (396/14 700) and 1.8% (307/16 792) of patients before and after implementation (adjusted odds ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.74-1.40]; P=0.894), and there were no differences in hospital reattendance or all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS Implementation of an early rule-out pathway for myocardial infarction reduced length of stay and hospital admission. Although noninferiority for the safety outcome was not demonstrated at 30 days, there was no increase in cardiac events at 1 year. Adoption of this pathway would have major benefits for patients and health care providers. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03005158.
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Affiliation(s)
- Atul Anand
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.A., K.K.L., A.R.C., A.V.F., P.D.A., F.E.S., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., A.S.V.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.s
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.A., K.K.L., A.R.C., A.V.F., P.D.A., F.E.S., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., A.S.V.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.s
| | - Andrew R. Chapman
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.A., K.K.L., A.R.C., A.V.F., P.D.A., F.E.S., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., A.S.V.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.s
| | - Amy V. Ferry
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.A., K.K.L., A.R.C., A.V.F., P.D.A., F.E.S., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., A.S.V.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.s
| | - Phil D. Adamson
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.A., K.K.L., A.R.C., A.V.F., P.D.A., F.E.S., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., A.S.V.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.s
- Christchurch Heart Institute, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand (P.D.A.)
| | - Fiona E. Strachan
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.A., K.K.L., A.R.C., A.V.F., P.D.A., F.E.S., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., A.S.V.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.s
| | - Colin Berry
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences (C.B.), University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Iain Findlay
- Department of Cardiology, Royal Alexandra Hospital, Paisley, United Kingdom (I.F.)
| | - Anne Cruikshank
- Department of Biochemistry, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Glasgow, United Kingdom (A.C., A.R.)
| | - Alan Reid
- Department of Biochemistry, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Glasgow, United Kingdom (A.C., A.R.)
| | - Paul O. Collinson
- Departments of Clinical Blood Sciences and Cardiology, St. George’s University Hospitals NHS Trust and St. George’s University of London, United Kingdom (P.O.C.)
| | - Fred S. Apple
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Hennepin Healthcare & University of Minnesota School of Medicine, Minneapolis (F.S.A.)
| | - David A. McAllister
- Institute of Health and Wellbeing (D.A.M.), University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Donogh Maguire
- Emergency Medicine Department, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, United Kingdom (D.M.)
| | - Keith A.A. Fox
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.A., K.K.L., A.R.C., A.V.F., P.D.A., F.E.S., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., A.S.V.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.s
| | - David E. Newby
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.A., K.K.L., A.R.C., A.V.F., P.D.A., F.E.S., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., A.S.V.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.s
| | - Chris Tuck
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit (C.T., R.H., C.K., C.J.W., R.A.P.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Ronald Harkess
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit (C.T., R.H., C.K., C.J.W., R.A.P.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Catriona Keerie
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit (C.T., R.H., C.K., C.J.W., R.A.P.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Christopher J. Weir
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit (C.T., R.H., C.K., C.J.W., R.A.P.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Richard A. Parker
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit (C.T., R.H., C.K., C.J.W., R.A.P.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Alasdair Gray
- Usher Institute (A.G., A.S.V.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- Emergency Medicine Research Group Edinburgh, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, United Kingdom (A.G.)
| | - Anoop S.V. Shah
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.A., K.K.L., A.R.C., A.V.F., P.D.A., F.E.S., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., A.S.V.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.s
- Usher Institute (A.G., A.S.V.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Nicholas L. Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.A., K.K.L., A.R.C., A.V.F., P.D.A., F.E.S., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., A.S.V.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.s
- Usher Institute (A.G., A.S.V.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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Cooper JG, Ferguson J, Donaldson LA, Black KMM, Livock KJ, Horrill JL, Davidson EM, Scott NW, Lee AJ, Fujisawa T, Lee KK, Anand A, Shah ASV, Mills NL. The Ambulance Cardiac Chest Pain Evaluation in Scotland Study (ACCESS): A Prospective Cohort Study. Ann Emerg Med 2021; 77:575-588. [PMID: 33926756 DOI: 10.1016/j.annemergmed.2021.01.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2020] [Revised: 01/11/2021] [Accepted: 01/12/2021] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
STUDY OBJECTIVE To determine whether risk stratification in the out-of-hospital setting could identify patients with chest pain who are at low and high risk to avoid admission or aid direct transfer to cardiac centers. METHODS Paramedics prospectively enrolled patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome without diagnostic ST-segment elevation on the ECG. The History, ECG, Age and Risk Factors (HEAR) score was recorded contemporaneously, and out-of-hospital samples were obtained to measure cardiac Troponin I (cTnI) level on a point-of-care device, to allow calculation of the History, ECG, Age, Risk Factors, and Troponin (HEART) score. HEAR and HEART scores less than or equal to 3 and greater than or equal to 7 were defined as low and high risk for major adverse cardiac events at 30 days. RESULTS Of 1,054 patients (64 years [SD 15 years]; 42% women), 284 (27%) experienced a major adverse cardiac event at 30 days. The HEAR score was calculated in all patients, with point-of-care cTnI testing available in 357 (34%). A HEAR score less than or equal to 3 identified 32% of patients (334/1,054) as low risk, with a sensitivity of 84.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 80.7% to 89%), whereas a score greater than or equal to 7 identified just 3% of patients (30/1,054) as high risk, with a specificity of 98.7% (95% CI 97.9% to 99.5%). A point-of-care HEART score less than or equal to 3 identified a similar proportion as low risk (30%), with a sensitivity of 87.0% (95% CI 80.7% to 93.4%), whereas a score greater than or equal to 7 identified 14% as high risk, with a specificity of 94.8% (95% CI 92.0% to 97.5%). CONCLUSION Paramedics can use the HEAR score to discriminate risk, but even when used in combination with out-of-hospital point-of-care cTnI testing, the HEART score does not safely rule out major adverse cardiac events, and only a small proportion of patients are identified as high risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jamie G Cooper
- Emergency Department, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, United Kingdom; Department of Applied Medicine, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom.
| | - James Ferguson
- Emergency Department, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, United Kingdom; Department of Applied Medicine, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | | | - Kim M M Black
- Emergency Department, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Kate J Livock
- Emergency Department, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Judith L Horrill
- Emergency Department, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Elaine M Davidson
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Neil W Scott
- Medical Statistics Team, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Amanda J Lee
- Medical Statistics Team, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Takeshi Fujisawa
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; BHF Cardiovascular Biomarker Laboratory, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Atul Anand
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Anoop S V Shah
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; BHF Cardiovascular Biomarker Laboratory, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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Lee KK, Doudesis D, Ross DA, Bularga A, MacKintosh CL, Koch O, Johannessen I, Templeton K, Jenks S, Chapman AR, Shah ASV, Anand A, Perry MR, Mills NL. Diagnostic performance of the combined nasal and throat swab in patients admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19. BMC Infect Dis 2021; 21:318. [PMID: 33823800 PMCID: PMC8022129 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-05976-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2020] [Accepted: 03/09/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Accurate diagnosis in patients with suspected coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is essential to guide treatment and limit spread of the virus. The combined nasal and throat swab is used widely, but its diagnostic performance is uncertain. METHODS In a prospective, multi-centre, cohort study conducted in secondary and tertiary care hospitals in Scotland, we evaluated the combined nasal and throat swab with reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in consecutive patients admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19. Diagnostic performance of the index and serial tests was evaluated for a primary outcome of confirmed or probable COVID-19, and a secondary outcome of confirmed COVID-19 on serial testing. The diagnosis was adjudicated by a panel, who recorded clinical, laboratory and radiological features blinded to the test results. RESULTS We enrolled 1368 consecutive patients (median age 68 [interquartile range, IQR 53-80] years, 47% women) who underwent a total of 3822 tests (median 2 [IQR 1-3] tests per patient). The primary outcome occurred in 36% (496/1368), of whom 65% (323/496) and 35% (173/496) had confirmed and probable COVID-19, respectively. The index test was positive in 255/496 (51%) patients with the primary outcome, giving a sensitivity and specificity of 51.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 48.8 to 54.1%) and 99.5% (95% CI 99.0 to 99.8%). Sensitivity increased in those undergoing 2, 3 or 4 tests to 60.1% (95% CI 56.7 to 63.4%), 68.3% (95% CI 64.0 to 72.3%) and 77.6% (95% CI 72.7 to 81.9%), respectively. The sensitivity of the index test was 78.9% (95% CI 74.4 to 83.2%) for the secondary outcome of confirmed COVID-19 on serial testing. CONCLUSIONS In patients admitted to hospital, a single combined nasal and throat swab with RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 has excellent specificity, but limited diagnostic sensitivity for COVID-19. Diagnostic performance is significantly improved by repeated testing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK.
| | - Dimitrios Doudesis
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Daniella A Ross
- Regional Infectious Disease Unit, Western General Hospital, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Anda Bularga
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK
| | | | - Oliver Koch
- Regional Infectious Disease Unit, Western General Hospital, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Kate Templeton
- Department of Clinical Virology, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Sara Jenks
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Andrew R Chapman
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Anoop S V Shah
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK
- Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Cardiology, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK
| | - Atul Anand
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK
| | - Meghan R Perry
- Regional Infectious Disease Unit, Western General Hospital, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4SA, UK
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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Wereski R, Chapman AR, Lee KK, Smith SW, Lowe DJ, Gray A, Mills NL. High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin Concentrations at Presentation in Patients With ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction. JAMA Cardiol 2021; 5:1302-1304. [PMID: 32785613 PMCID: PMC7675101 DOI: 10.1001/jamacardio.2020.2867] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ryan Wereski
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Andrew R Chapman
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | | | - David J Lowe
- University of Glasgow, School of Medicine, Glasgow, Scotland
| | - Alasdair Gray
- Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Emergency Medicine Research Group, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
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Ball S, Banerjee A, Berry C, Boyle JR, Bray B, Bradlow W, Chaudhry A, Crawley R, Danesh J, Denniston A, Falter F, Figueroa JD, Hall C, Hemingway H, Jefferson E, Johnson T, King G, Lee KK, McKean P, Mason S, Mills NL, Pearson E, Pirmohamed M, Poon MTC, Priedon R, Shah A, Sofat R, Sterne JAC, Strachan FE, Sudlow CLM, Szarka Z, Whiteley W, Wyatt M. Monitoring indirect impact of COVID-19 pandemic on services for cardiovascular diseases in the UK. Heart 2020; 106:1890-1897. [PMID: 33020224 PMCID: PMC7536637 DOI: 10.1136/heartjnl-2020-317870] [Citation(s) in RCA: 68] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2020] [Revised: 09/16/2020] [Accepted: 09/18/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To monitor hospital activity for presentation, diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases during the COVID-19) pandemic to inform on indirect effects. METHODS Retrospective serial cross-sectional study in nine UK hospitals using hospital activity data from 28 October 2019 (pre-COVID-19) to 10 May 2020 (pre-easing of lockdown) and for the same weeks during 2018-2019. We analysed aggregate data for selected cardiovascular diseases before and during the epidemic. We produced an online visualisation tool to enable near real-time monitoring of trends. RESULTS Across nine hospitals, total admissions and emergency department (ED) attendances decreased after lockdown (23 March 2020) by 57.9% (57.1%-58.6%) and 52.9% (52.2%-53.5%), respectively, compared with the previous year. Activity for cardiac, cerebrovascular and other vascular conditions started to decline 1-2 weeks before lockdown and fell by 31%-88% after lockdown, with the greatest reductions observed for coronary artery bypass grafts, carotid endarterectomy, aortic aneurysm repair and peripheral arterial disease procedures. Compared with before the first UK COVID-19 (31 January 2020), activity declined across diseases and specialties between the first case and lockdown (total ED attendances relative reduction (RR) 0.94, 0.93-0.95; total hospital admissions RR 0.96, 0.95-0.97) and after lockdown (attendances RR 0.63, 0.62-0.64; admissions RR 0.59, 0.57-0.60). There was limited recovery towards usual levels of some activities from mid-April 2020. CONCLUSIONS Substantial reductions in total and cardiovascular activities are likely to contribute to a major burden of indirect effects of the pandemic, suggesting they should be monitored and mitigated urgently.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon Ball
- University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Trust, Birmingham, United Kingdom
- Health Data Research UK Midlands, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Amitava Banerjee
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- University College London Hospitals NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom
- Health Data Research UK, London, United Kingdom
| | - Colin Berry
- BHF Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
- Department of Cardiology, Golden Jubilee National Hospital, Clydebank, UK
| | - Jonathan R Boyle
- University of Cambridge, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, UK
- Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | | | - William Bradlow
- Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK
| | | | - Rikki Crawley
- Barnsley Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Barnsley, South Yorkshire, UK
| | - John Danesh
- University of Cambridge, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, UK
- Health Data Research UK Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Alastair Denniston
- University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Trust, Birmingham, United Kingdom
- Health Data Research UK Midlands, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Florian Falter
- Royal Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, UK
| | - Jonine D Figueroa
- The University of Edinburgh Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Harry Hemingway
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- Health Data Research UK, London, United Kingdom
| | - Emily Jefferson
- Population Health and Genomics, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
- Health Data Research UK Scotland, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Tom Johnson
- University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UK
| | - Graham King
- Newcastle Upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Paul McKean
- Newcastle Upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK
| | - Suzanne Mason
- Health Data Research UK North, Sheffield, UK
- School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- The University of Edinburgh Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, Edinburgh, UK
- Health Data Research UK Scotland, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Ewen Pearson
- Population Health and Genomics, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
- Health Data Research UK Scotland, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Munir Pirmohamed
- Health Data Research UK North, Sheffield, UK
- Institute of Translational Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Michael T C Poon
- The University of Edinburgh Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, Edinburgh, UK
- Cancer Research UK Edinburgh Centre, Institute of Genomic and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Rouven Priedon
- BHF Data Science Centre, Health Data Research UK, London, UK
| | - Anoop Shah
- BHF/University Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Reecha Sofat
- University College London Hospitals NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jonathan A C Sterne
- Health Data Research UK South West, Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Fiona E Strachan
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Cathie L M Sudlow
- The University of Edinburgh Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, Edinburgh, UK
- Health Data Research UK Scotland, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- BHF Data Science Centre, Health Data Research UK, London, UK
| | - Zsolt Szarka
- University of Dundee Health Informatics Centre, Dundee, UK
| | - William Whiteley
- The University of Edinburgh Centre for Clinical Brain Sciences, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Michael Wyatt
- University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UK
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Stelzle D, Tanaka LF, Lee KK, Ibrahim Khalil A, Baussano I, Shah ASV, McAllister DA, Gottlieb SL, Klug SJ, Winkler AS, Bray F, Baggaley R, Clifford GM, Broutet N, Dalal S. Estimates of the global burden of cervical cancer associated with HIV. Lancet Glob Health 2020; 9:e161-e169. [PMID: 33212031 PMCID: PMC7815633 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30459-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 255] [Impact Index Per Article: 63.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2020] [Revised: 09/27/2020] [Accepted: 10/12/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Background HIV enhances human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced carcinogenesis. However, the contribution of HIV to cervical cancer burden at a population level has not been quantified. We aimed to investigate cervical cancer risk among women living with HIV and to estimate the global cervical cancer burden associated with HIV. Methods We did a systematic literature search and meta-analysis of five databases (PubMed, Embase, Global Health [CABI.org], Web of Science, and Global Index Medicus) to identify studies analysing the association between HIV infection and cervical cancer. We estimated the pooled risk of cervical cancer among women living with HIV across four continents (Africa, Asia, Europe, and North America). The risk ratio (RR) was combined with country-specific UNAIDS estimates of HIV prevalence and GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates of cervical cancer to calculate the proportion of women living with HIV among women with cervical cancer and population attributable fractions and age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) of HIV-attributable cervical cancer. Findings 24 studies met our inclusion criteria, which included 236 127 women living with HIV. The pooled risk of cervical cancer was increased in women living with HIV (RR 6·07, 95% CI 4·40–8·37). Globally, 5·8% (95% CI 4·6–7·3) of new cervical cancer cases in 2018 (33 000 new cases, 95% CI 26 000–42 000) were diagnosed in women living with HIV and 4·9% (95% CI 3·6–6·4) were attributable to HIV infection (28 000 new cases, 20 000–36 000). The most affected regions were southern Africa and eastern Africa. In southern Africa, 63·8% (95% CI 58·9–68·1) of women with cervical cancer (9200 new cases, 95% CI 8500–9800) were living with HIV, as were 27·4% (23·7–31·7) of women in eastern Africa (14 000 new cases, 12 000–17 000). ASIRs of HIV-attributable cervical cancer were more than 20 per 100 000 in six countries, all in southern Africa and eastern Africa. Interpretation Women living with HIV have a significantly increased risk of cervical cancer. HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening for women living with HIV are especially important for countries in southern Africa and eastern Africa, where a substantial HIV-attributable cervical cancer burden has added to the existing cervical cancer burden. Funding WHO, US Agency for International Development, and US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominik Stelzle
- Center for Global Health, Department of Neurology, Faculty of Medicine, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany; Chair of Epidemiology, Department of Sport and Health Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Luana F Tanaka
- Chair of Epidemiology, Department of Sport and Health Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | | | - Anoop S V Shah
- Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Sami L Gottlieb
- Department of Sexual and Reproductive Health and Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Stefanie J Klug
- Chair of Epidemiology, Department of Sport and Health Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Andrea S Winkler
- Center for Global Health, Department of Neurology, Faculty of Medicine, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany; Centre for Global Health, Institute of Health and Society, Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Freddie Bray
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Rachel Baggaley
- Department of Global HIV, Hepatitis and STIs Programmes, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Nathalie Broutet
- Department of Sexual and Reproductive Health and Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Shona Dalal
- Department of Global HIV, Hepatitis and STIs Programmes, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
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Lee KK, Bing R, Kiang J, Bashir S, Spath N, Stelzle D, Mortimer K, Bularga A, Doudesis D, Joshi SS, Strachan F, Gumy S, Adair-Rohani H, Attia EF, Chung MH, Miller MR, Newby DE, Mills NL, McAllister DA, Shah ASV. Adverse health effects associated with household air pollution: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and burden estimation study. Lancet Glob Health 2020; 8:e1427-e1434. [PMID: 33069303 PMCID: PMC7564377 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30343-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 159] [Impact Index Per Article: 39.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2020] [Revised: 06/17/2020] [Accepted: 07/13/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND 3 billion people worldwide rely on polluting fuels and technologies for domestic cooking and heating. We estimate the global, regional, and national health burden associated with exposure to household air pollution. METHODS For the systematic review and meta-analysis, we systematically searched four databases for studies published from database inception to April 2, 2020, that evaluated the risk of adverse cardiorespiratory, paediatric, and maternal outcomes from exposure to household air pollution, compared with no exposure. We used a random-effects model to calculate disease-specific relative risk (RR) meta-estimates. Household air pollution exposure was defined as use of polluting fuels (coal, wood, charcoal, agricultural wastes, animal dung, or kerosene) for household cooking or heating. Temporal trends in mortality and disease burden associated with household air pollution, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), were estimated from 2000 to 2017 using exposure prevalence data from 183 of 193 UN member states. 95% CIs were estimated by propagating uncertainty from the RR meta-estimates, prevalence of household air pollution exposure, and disease-specific mortality and burden estimates using a simulation-based approach. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019125060. FINDINGS 476 studies (15·5 million participants) from 123 nations (99 [80%] of which were classified as low-income and middle-income) met the inclusion criteria. Household air pollution was positively associated with asthma (RR 1·23, 95% CI 1·11-1·36), acute respiratory infection in both adults (1·53, 1·22-1·93) and children (1·39, 1·29-1·49), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1·70, 1·47-1·97), lung cancer (1·69, 1·44-1·98), and tuberculosis (1·26, 1·08-1·48); cerebrovascular disease (1·09, 1·04-1·14) and ischaemic heart disease (1·10, 1·09-1·11); and low birthweight (1·36, 1·19-1·55) and stillbirth (1·22, 1·06-1·41); as well as with under-5 (1·25, 1·18-1·33), respiratory (1·19, 1·18-1·20), and cardiovascular (1·07, 1·04-1·11) mortality. Household air pollution was associated with 1·8 million (95% CI 1·1-2·7) deaths and 60·9 million (34·6-93·3) DALYs in 2017, with the burden overwhelmingly experienced in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs; 60·8 million [34·6-92·9] DALYs) compared with high-income countries (0·09 million [0·01-0·40] DALYs). From 2000, mortality associated with household air pollution had reduced by 36% (95% CI 29-43) and disease burden by 30% (25-36), with the greatest reductions observed in higher-income nations. INTERPRETATION The burden of cardiorespiratory, paediatric, and maternal diseases associated with household air pollution has declined worldwide but remains high in the world's poorest regions. Urgent integrated health and energy strategies are needed to reduce the adverse health impact of household air pollution, especially in LMICs. FUNDING British Heart Foundation, Wellcome Trust.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Rong Bing
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Joanne Kiang
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Sophia Bashir
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Nicholas Spath
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Dominik Stelzle
- Center for Global Health, Department of Neurology and Department of Sport and Health Sciences, Technical University, Munich, Germany
| | | | - Anda Bularga
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Dimitrios Doudesis
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Shruti S Joshi
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Fiona Strachan
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Sophie Gumy
- Department of Public Health and Environment, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Engi F Attia
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Mark R Miller
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - David E Newby
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Anoop S V Shah
- Department of Non-communicable Disease, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
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Lee KK, Spath N, Miller MR, Mills NL, Shah ASV. Short-term exposure to carbon monoxide and myocardial infarction: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Environ Int 2020; 143:105901. [PMID: 32634667 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.105901] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2020] [Revised: 06/11/2020] [Accepted: 06/14/2020] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies suggest an association between short-term exposure to carbon monoxide and myocardial infarction. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess current evidence on this association to support the update of the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Air Quality Guidelines. METHODS We searched Medline, Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials to update the evidence published in a previous systematic review up to 30th September 2018 for studies investigating the association between short-term exposure to ambient carbon monoxide (up to lag of seven days) and emergency department visits or hospital admissions and mortality due to myocardial infarction. Two reviewers assessed potentially eligible studies and performed data extraction independently. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to derive the pooled risk estimate per 1 mg/m3 increase in ambient carbon monoxide concentration. Risk of bias in individual studies was assessed using a domain-based assessment tool. The overall certainty of the body of evidence was evaluated using an adapted certainty of evidence assessment framework. RESULTS We evaluated 1,038 articles from the previous review and our updated literature search, of which, 26 satisfied our inclusion criteria. Overall, myocardial infarction was associated with exposure to ambient carbon monoxide concentration (risk ratio of 1.052, 95% confidence interval 1.017-1.089 per 1 mg/m3 increase). A third of studies were assessed to be at high risk of bias (RoB) due to inadequate adjustment for confounding. Using an adaptation of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework, the overall evidence was assessed to be of moderate certainty. CONCLUSIONS This review demonstrated that the pooled risk ratio for myocardial infarction was 1.052 (95% CI 1.017-1.089) per 1 mg/m3 increase in ambient carbon monoxide concentration. However, very few studies originated from low- and middle-income countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Nicholas Spath
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Mark R Miller
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Anoop S V Shah
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
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Dweck MR, Bularga A, Hahn RT, Bing R, Lee KK, Chapman AR, White A, Salvo GD, Sade LE, Pearce K, Newby DE, Popescu BA, Donal E, Cosyns B, Edvardsen T, Mills NL, Haugaa K. Global evaluation of echocardiography in patients with COVID-19. Eur Heart J Cardiovasc Imaging 2020; 21:949-958. [PMID: 32556199 PMCID: PMC7337658 DOI: 10.1093/ehjci/jeaa178] [Citation(s) in RCA: 271] [Impact Index Per Article: 67.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2020] [Accepted: 06/02/2020] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Aims To describe the cardiac abnormalities in patients with COVID-19 and identify the characteristics of patients who would benefit most from echocardiography. Methods and results In a prospective international survey, we captured echocardiography findings in patients with presumed or confirmed COVID-19 between 3 and 20 April 2020. Patient characteristics, indications, findings, and impact of echocardiography on management were recorded. Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors of echocardiographic abnormalities. A total of 1216 patients [62 (52–71) years, 70% male] from 69 countries across six continents were included. Overall, 667 (55%) patients had an abnormal echocardiogram. Left and right ventricular abnormalities were reported in 479 (39%) and 397 (33%) patients, respectively, with evidence of new myocardial infarction in 36 (3%), myocarditis in 35 (3%), and takotsubo cardiomyopathy in 19 (2%). Severe cardiac disease (severe ventricular dysfunction or tamponade) was observed in 182 (15%) patients. In those without pre-existing cardiac disease (n = 901), the echocardiogram was abnormal in 46%, and 13% had severe disease. Independent predictors of left and right ventricular abnormalities were distinct, including elevated natriuretic peptides [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.75–5.05) and cardiac troponin (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.13–2.53) for the former, and severity of COVID-19 symptoms (OR 3.19, 95% CI 1.73–6.10) for the latter. Echocardiography changed management in 33% of patients. Conclusion In this global survey, cardiac abnormalities were observed in half of all COVID-19 patients undergoing echocardiography. Abnormalities were often unheralded or severe, and imaging changed management in one-third of patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marc R Dweck
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Anda Bularga
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Rong Bing
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Audrey White
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Leyla Elif Sade
- Department of Cardiology, University of Baskent, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Keith Pearce
- University Hospital South Manchester, Cardiology, Wythenshawe, Manchester, UK
| | - David E Newby
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Bogdan A Popescu
- Department of Cardiology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy 'Carol Davila'-Euroecolab, Emergency Institute for Cardiovascular Diseases 'Prof. Dr. C. C. Iliescu', Bucharest, Romania
| | - Erwan Donal
- University of Rennes, CHU Rennes, Inserm, LTSI-UMR 1099, Rennes, France
| | - Bernard Cosyns
- Centrum voor Hart en Vaatziekten, Universitair Ziekenhuis Brussel, Vrij Universiteit van Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Thor Edvardsen
- Department of Cardiology, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway.,Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, UK.,Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, UK
| | - Kristina Haugaa
- Department of Cardiology, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway.,Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom .,Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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Lee KK, Ferry AV, Anand A, Strachan FE, Chapman AR, Kimenai DM, Meex SJR, Berry C, Findlay I, Reid A, Cruickshank A, Gray A, Collinson PO, Apple FS, McAllister DA, Maguire D, Fox KAA, Newby DE, Tuck C, Keerie C, Weir CJ, Shah ASV, Mills NL. Sex-Specific Thresholds of High-Sensitivity Troponin in Patients With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome. J Am Coll Cardiol 2020; 74:2032-2043. [PMID: 31623760 PMCID: PMC6876271 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2019.07.082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 69] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2019] [Revised: 07/25/2019] [Accepted: 07/28/2019] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Major disparities between women and men in the diagnosis, management, and outcomes of acute coronary syndrome are well recognized. OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of implementing a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay with sex-specific diagnostic thresholds for myocardial infarction in women and men with suspected acute coronary syndrome. METHODS Consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome were enrolled in a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized controlled trial across 10 hospitals. Myocardial injury was defined as high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentration >99th centile of 16 ng/l in women and 34 ng/l in men. The primary outcome was recurrent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death at 1 year. RESULTS A total of 48,282 patients (47% women) were included. Use of the high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay with sex-specific thresholds increased myocardial injury in women by 42% and in men by 6%. Following implementation, women with myocardial injury remained less likely than men to undergo coronary revascularization (15% vs. 34%) and to receive dual antiplatelet (26% vs. 43%), statin (16% vs. 26%), or other preventive therapies (p < 0.001 for all). The primary outcome occurred in 18% (369 of 2,072) and 17% (488 of 2,919) of women with myocardial injury before and after implementation, respectively (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.11; 95% confidence interval: 0.92 to 1.33), compared with 18% (370 of 2,044) and 15% (513 of 3,325) of men (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.85; 95% confidence interval: 0.71 to 1.01). CONCLUSIONS Use of sex-specific thresholds identified 5 times more additional women than men with myocardial injury. Despite this increase, women received approximately one-half the number of treatments for coronary artery disease as men, and outcomes were not improved. (High-Sensitivity Troponin in the Evaluation of Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome [High-STEACS]; NCT01852123).
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuan Ken Lee
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Amy V Ferry
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Atul Anand
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Fiona E Strachan
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew R Chapman
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Dorien M Kimenai
- CARIM School for Cardiovascular Diseases, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands; Central Diagnostic Laboratory, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, the Netherlands
| | - Steven J R Meex
- CARIM School for Cardiovascular Diseases, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands; Central Diagnostic Laboratory, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, the Netherlands
| | - Colin Berry
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Iain Findlay
- Department of Cardiology, Royal Alexandra Hospital, Paisley, United Kingdom
| | - Alan Reid
- Department of Biochemistry, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Anne Cruickshank
- Department of Biochemistry, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Alasdair Gray
- Emergency Medicine Research Group Edinburgh, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Paul O Collinson
- Departments of Clinical Blood Sciences and Cardiology, St. George's, University Hospitals NHS Trust and St. George's University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Fred S Apple
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Hennepin County Medical Center & University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota
| | - David A McAllister
- Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Donogh Maguire
- Emergency Medicine Department, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Keith A A Fox
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - David E Newby
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Chris Tuck
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Catriona Keerie
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Christopher J Weir
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Anoop S V Shah
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
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Shah ASV, McAllister DA, Gallacher P, Astengo F, Rodríguez Pérez JA, Hall J, Lee KK, Bing R, Anand A, Nathwani D, Mills NL, Newby DE, Marwick C, Cruden NL. Incidence, Microbiology, and Outcomes in Patients Hospitalized With Infective Endocarditis. Circulation 2020; 141:2067-2077. [PMID: 32410460 PMCID: PMC7306256 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.119.044913] [Citation(s) in RCA: 71] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text. Background: Despite improvements in management, infective endocarditis remains associated with high mortality and morbidity. We describe temporal changes in the incidence, microbiology, and outcomes of infective endocarditis and the effect of changes in national antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines on incident infective endocarditis. Methods: Using a Scotland-wide, individual-level linkage approach, all patients hospitalized with infective endocarditis from 1990 to 2014 were identified and linked to national microbiology, prescribing, and morbidity and mortality datasets. Linked data were used to evaluate trends in the crude and age- and sex-adjusted incidence and outcomes of infective endocarditis hospitalizations. From 2008, microbiology data and associated outcomes adjusted for patient demographics and comorbidity were also analyzed. An interrupted time series analysis was performed to evaluate incidence before and after changes to national antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines. Results: There were 7638 hospitalizations (65±17 years, 51% females) with infective endocarditis. The estimated crude hospitalization rate increased from 5.3/100 000 (95% CI, 4.8-5.9) to 8.6/100 000 (95% CI, 8.1–9.1) between 1990 and 1995 but remained stable thereafter. There was no change in crude incidence following the 2008 change in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines (relative risk of change 1.06 [95% CI, 0.94–1.20]). The incidence rate in patients >80 years of age doubled from 1990 to 2014 (17.7/100 000 [95% CI, 13.4–23.3] to 37.9/100 000 [95% CI, 31.5–45.5]). The predicted 1-year age- and comorbidity-adjusted case fatality rate for a 65-year-old patient decreased in women (27.3% [95% CI, 24.6–30.2] to 23.7% [95% CI, 21.1–26.6]) and men (30.7% [95% CI, 27.7–33.8] to 26.8% [95% CI, 24.0–29.7]) from 1990 to 2014. Blood culture data were available from 2008 (n=2267/7638, 30%), with positive blood cultures recorded in 42% (950/2267). Staphylococcus (403/950, 42.4%) and streptococcus (337/950, 35.5%) species were most common. Staphylococcus aureus and enterococcus had the highest 1-year mortality (adjusted odds ratio 4.34 [95% CI, 3.12–6.05] and 3.41 [95% CI, 2.04–5.70], respectively). Conclusions: Despite changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines, the crude incidence of infective endocarditis has remained stable. However, the incidence rate has doubled in the elderly. Positive blood cultures were observed in less than half of patients, with Staphylococcus aureus and enterococcus bacteremia associated with worse outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anoop S V Shah
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.S.V.S., P.G., F.A., J.H., K.K.L., R.B., A.A., N.L.M., D.E.N.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.,Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics (A.S.V.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - David A McAllister
- Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom (D.A.M., J.A.R.P.)
| | - Peter Gallacher
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.S.V.S., P.G., F.A., J.H., K.K.L., R.B., A.A., N.L.M., D.E.N.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Federica Astengo
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.S.V.S., P.G., F.A., J.H., K.K.L., R.B., A.A., N.L.M., D.E.N.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | | | - Jennifer Hall
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.S.V.S., P.G., F.A., J.H., K.K.L., R.B., A.A., N.L.M., D.E.N.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.S.V.S., P.G., F.A., J.H., K.K.L., R.B., A.A., N.L.M., D.E.N.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Rong Bing
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.S.V.S., P.G., F.A., J.H., K.K.L., R.B., A.A., N.L.M., D.E.N.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Atul Anand
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.S.V.S., P.G., F.A., J.H., K.K.L., R.B., A.A., N.L.M., D.E.N.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Dilip Nathwani
- Academic Health Sciences Partnership in Tayside, Ninewells Hospital and Medical School, Dundee, United Kingdom (D.N.)
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.S.V.S., P.G., F.A., J.H., K.K.L., R.B., A.A., N.L.M., D.E.N.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.,Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics (A.S.V.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - David E Newby
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.S.V.S., P.G., F.A., J.H., K.K.L., R.B., A.A., N.L.M., D.E.N.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Charis Marwick
- Population Health and Genomics, School of Medicine, University of Dundee, United Kingdom (C.M.)
| | - Nicholas L Cruden
- Edinburgh Heart Centre, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, United Kingdom (N.L.C.)
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Lee KK, Shah ASV. High-sensitivity cardiac troponin: a double-edged sword. Eur Heart J Qual Care Clin Outcomes 2020; 6:3-4. [PMID: 31263882 DOI: 10.1093/ehjqcco/qcz033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, SU.305 Chancellor's Building, 49 Little France Crescent, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
| | - Anoop S V Shah
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, SU.305 Chancellor's Building, 49 Little France Crescent, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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Marshall L, Lee KK, Stewart SD, Wild A, Fujisawa T, Ferry AV, Stables CL, Lithgow H, Chapman AR, Anand A, Shah ASV, Dhaun N, Strachan FE, Mills NL, Ross MD. Effect of Exercise Intensity and Duration on Cardiac Troponin Release. Circulation 2019; 141:83-85. [PMID: 31887079 PMCID: PMC6940024 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.119.041874] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Lucy Marshall
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (L.M., K.K.L., S.D.S., A.W., T.F., A.V.F., C.L.S., A.R.C., A.A., A.S.V.S., N.D., F.E.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (L.M., K.K.L., S.D.S., A.W., T.F., A.V.F., C.L.S., A.R.C., A.A., A.S.V.S., N.D., F.E.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Stacey D Stewart
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (L.M., K.K.L., S.D.S., A.W., T.F., A.V.F., C.L.S., A.R.C., A.A., A.S.V.S., N.D., F.E.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Adam Wild
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (L.M., K.K.L., S.D.S., A.W., T.F., A.V.F., C.L.S., A.R.C., A.A., A.S.V.S., N.D., F.E.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Takeshi Fujisawa
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (L.M., K.K.L., S.D.S., A.W., T.F., A.V.F., C.L.S., A.R.C., A.A., A.S.V.S., N.D., F.E.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Amy V Ferry
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (L.M., K.K.L., S.D.S., A.W., T.F., A.V.F., C.L.S., A.R.C., A.A., A.S.V.S., N.D., F.E.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Catherine L Stables
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (L.M., K.K.L., S.D.S., A.W., T.F., A.V.F., C.L.S., A.R.C., A.A., A.S.V.S., N.D., F.E.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Hannah Lithgow
- School of Applied Science, Edinburgh Napier University, United Kingdom (H.L., M.D.R.)
| | - Andrew R Chapman
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (L.M., K.K.L., S.D.S., A.W., T.F., A.V.F., C.L.S., A.R.C., A.A., A.S.V.S., N.D., F.E.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Atul Anand
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (L.M., K.K.L., S.D.S., A.W., T.F., A.V.F., C.L.S., A.R.C., A.A., A.S.V.S., N.D., F.E.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Anoop S V Shah
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (L.M., K.K.L., S.D.S., A.W., T.F., A.V.F., C.L.S., A.R.C., A.A., A.S.V.S., N.D., F.E.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Neeraj Dhaun
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (L.M., K.K.L., S.D.S., A.W., T.F., A.V.F., C.L.S., A.R.C., A.A., A.S.V.S., N.D., F.E.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Fiona E Strachan
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (L.M., K.K.L., S.D.S., A.W., T.F., A.V.F., C.L.S., A.R.C., A.A., A.S.V.S., N.D., F.E.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- British Heart Foundation Centre for Cardiovascular Science (L.M., K.K.L., S.D.S., A.W., T.F., A.V.F., C.L.S., A.R.C., A.A., A.S.V.S., N.D., F.E.S., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.,Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics (N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Mark D Ross
- School of Applied Science, Edinburgh Napier University, United Kingdom (H.L., M.D.R.)
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Cooper J, Ferguson J, Donaldson L, Black K, Davidson E, Horrill J, Livock K, Lee KK, Anand A, Mills N, Scott N. 013 Paramedic HEART scores in the prediction of MACE and AMI. The ambulance cardiac chest pain evaluation in scotland (ACCESS) study. Emerg Med J 2019. [DOI: 10.1136/emermed-2019-rcem.13] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/07/2023]
Abstract
BackgroundCardiac sounding chest pain represents about 5% of all Emergency Department (ED) attendances in the United Kingdom (UK), often via 999 ambulance.Much work has focused on the rapid distinction of the 1 in 5 patients without ST elevation on ECG, who are suffering from a non ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Pre-hospital translation of such work may allow improved access to specialist treatment for patients with NSTEMI and also identify a low risk population suitable for management without immediate ambulance transfer to hospital.The objective was to determine the accuracy of a wholly paramedic calculated pre-hospital HEART score to predict a 30-day Major Adverse Cardiac Event (MACE). The potential implications of pre-specified low-risk and high-risk cut offs were also to be determined.Method and resultsProspective diagnostic accuracy study in Northeast Scotland (UK) on adult (>18 yr) patients with cardiac sounding chest pain, attended by a paramedic ambulance and who had no ST elevation on initial ECG.A real time paramedic HEAR score was calculated and blood drawn for analysis with a POC cTn assay and later with both laboratory based contemporary and high-sensitivity cTn assays. Normal care then ensued and patients were followed up to 30 days for development of MACE.ConclusionsBetween Nov 2014 and April 2018, 1275 patients agreed to participate in the ambulance and 1056 later gave informed consent with 1054 completing 30 day follow up.358 patients had complete Paramedic HEART scores with all 3 assays and 969 patients with the 2 lab based assays (figure 1)Abstract 013 Figure 1Patient flow diagramSensitivities and specificities (95% CI) for the HEART scores vs MACE will be calculated and ROC curves generated. Diagnostic properties at different score cut-offs will be presented and analysis of the impact of the different cTnI assays presented.Apologies: Independent AMI adjudication due to complete next week, so no full results yet.
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McKay T, Scally B, Lee KK, Anand A, Mills N, Gray A. 012 Outcomes following confirmed myocardial injury in patients with atrial fibrillation: a post hoc subgroup analysis of the high-STEACS trial. Emerg Med J 2019. [DOI: 10.1136/emermed-2019-rcem.12] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/07/2023]
Abstract
Troponin rise in patients with atrial fibrillation may be falsely attributed to oxygen demand-supply mismatch rather than acute atherothrombotic events requiring urgent percutaneous coronary intervention. The purpose of this study was to compare the differences in clinical presentation, management and outcomes between patients in atrial fibrillation and sinus rhythm presenting to the Emergency Department with a suspected acute coronary syndrome. This is the first report to describe the atrial fibrillation patient population recruited to the High-STEACS trial.Patients recruited to theHigh-Sensitivity Troponin in the Evaluation of patients with suspected Acute Coronary Syndromes(High-STEACS) trial from three sites across South East Scotland with confirmed myocardial injury diagnosed by high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I were included in apost hocsubgroup analysis (n=3597). Baseline patient characteristics, coronary revascularisation treatment and one-year mortality outcomes were compared between individuals in atrial fibrillation and sinus rhythm.517 (14.4%) of patients presenting to Emergency Departments with confirmed myocardial injury were found to be in atrial fibrillation. One year all-cause mortality was higher in this population compared to patients presenting in sinus rhythm (24.8% vs 16.9%; p<0.001). Patients in atrial fibrillation were less likely to undergo invasive coronary angiography (21.5% vs. 59.8%; p<0.001) or urgent revascularisation with either percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting (13.2% vs. 45.2%; p<0.001). These patients were also more likely to receive an adjudicated diagnosis of myocardial injury or type 2 myocardial infarction (67.1% vs. 25.2%; p<0.001). However, there was no related increase in the incidence of unplanned coronary revascularisation in the year following index presentation (4.5% vs. 6.9%; p=0.05). Although patients in atrial fibrillation have poorer clinical outcomes, these results are likely to indicate an older population with higher multimorbidity rather than a missed opportunity for active treatment during initial presentation to the Emergency Department.
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Chapman AR, Adamson PD, Shah ASV, Anand A, Strachan FE, Ferry AV, Lee KK, Berry C, Findlay I, Cruikshank A, Reid A, Gray A, Collinson PO, Apple F, McAllister DA, Maguire D, Fox KAA, Vallejos CA, Keerie C, Weir CJ, Newby DE, Mills NL. High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin and the Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction. Circulation 2019; 141:161-171. [PMID: 31587565 PMCID: PMC6970546 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.119.042960] [Citation(s) in RCA: 110] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text. Background: The introduction of more sensitive cardiac troponin assays has led to increased recognition of myocardial injury in acute illnesses other than acute coronary syndrome. The Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction recommends high-sensitivity cardiac troponin testing and classification of patients with myocardial injury based on pathogenesis, but the clinical implications of implementing this guideline are not well understood. Methods: In a stepped-wedge cluster randomized, controlled trial, we implemented a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assay and the recommendations of the Universal Definition in 48 282 consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. In a prespecified secondary analysis, we compared the primary outcome of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death and secondary outcome of noncardiovascular death at 1 year across diagnostic categories. Results: Implementation increased the diagnosis of type 1 myocardial infarction by 11% (510/4471), type 2 myocardial infarction by 22% (205/916), and acute and chronic myocardial injury by 36% (443/1233) and 43% (389/898), respectively. Compared with those without myocardial injury, the rate of the primary outcome was highest in those with type 1 myocardial infarction (cause-specific hazard ratio [HR] 5.64 [95% CI, 5.12–6.22]), but was similar across diagnostic categories, whereas noncardiovascular deaths were highest in those with acute myocardial injury (cause specific HR 2.65 [95% CI, 2.33–3.01]). Despite modest increases in antiplatelet therapy and coronary revascularization after implementation in patients with type 1 myocardial infarction, the primary outcome was unchanged (cause specific HR 1.00 [95% CI, 0.82–1.21]). Increased recognition of type 2 myocardial infarction and myocardial injury did not lead to changes in investigation, treatment or outcomes. Conclusions: Implementation of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays and the recommendations of the Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction identified patients at high-risk of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular events but was not associated with consistent increases in treatment or improved outcomes. Trials of secondary prevention are urgently required to determine whether this risk is modifiable in patients without type 1 myocardial infarction. Clinical Trial Registration: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01852123.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew R Chapman
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.R.C., P.D.A., A.S.V.S., A.A., F.E.S., A.V.F., K.K.L., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Philip D Adamson
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.R.C., P.D.A., A.S.V.S., A.A., F.E.S., A.V.F., K.K.L., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.,Christchurch Heart Institute, University of Otago, New Zealand (P.D.A.)
| | - Anoop S V Shah
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.R.C., P.D.A., A.S.V.S., A.A., F.E.S., A.V.F., K.K.L., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Atul Anand
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.R.C., P.D.A., A.S.V.S., A.A., F.E.S., A.V.F., K.K.L., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Fiona E Strachan
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.R.C., P.D.A., A.S.V.S., A.A., F.E.S., A.V.F., K.K.L., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Amy V Ferry
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.R.C., P.D.A., A.S.V.S., A.A., F.E.S., A.V.F., K.K.L., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Kuan Ken Lee
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.R.C., P.D.A., A.S.V.S., A.A., F.E.S., A.V.F., K.K.L., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Colin Berry
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences (C.B.), University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Iain Findlay
- Department of Cardiology, Royal Alexandra Hospital, Paisley, United Kingdom (I.F.)
| | - Anne Cruikshank
- Department of Biochemistry, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Glasgow, United Kingdom (A.C., A.R.)
| | - Alan Reid
- Department of Biochemistry, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Glasgow, United Kingdom (A.C., A.R.)
| | - Alasdair Gray
- Emergency Medicine Research Group Edinburgh, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, United Kingdom (A.G.)
| | - Paul O Collinson
- Departments of Clinical Blood Sciences and Cardiology, St George's, University Hospitals NHS Trust and St George's University of London, United Kingdom (P.O.C.)
| | - Fred Apple
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Hennepin Healthcare/Hennepin County Medical Center & University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.A.)
| | - David A McAllister
- Institute of Health and Wellbeing (D.A.McA.), University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Donogh Maguire
- Emergency Medicine Department, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, United Kingdom (D.M)
| | - Keith A A Fox
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.R.C., P.D.A., A.S.V.S., A.A., F.E.S., A.V.F., K.K.L., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Catalina A Vallejos
- MRC Human Genetics Unit (C.A.V.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.,The Alan Turing Institute, London, United Kingdom (C.A.V.)
| | - Catriona Keerie
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit (C.K., C.J.W.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.,Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics (C.K., C.J.W., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Christopher J Weir
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit (C.K., C.J.W.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.,Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics (C.K., C.J.W., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - David E Newby
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.R.C., P.D.A., A.S.V.S., A.A., F.E.S., A.V.F., K.K.L., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science (A.R.C., P.D.A., A.S.V.S., A.A., F.E.S., A.V.F., K.K.L., K.A.A.F., D.E.N., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.,Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics (C.K., C.J.W., N.L.M.), University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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Bularga A, Anand A, Strachan FE, Lee KK, Stewart S, Ferry AV, Chapman AR, Marshall L, Shah ASV, Newby DE, Mills NL. 247Safety and efficacy of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin for risk stratification in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Eur Heart J 2019. [DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehz747.0064] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Guidelines acknowledge the emerging role of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) assays for the risk stratification and rapid rule-out of myocardial infarction, but multiple approaches have been described. We previously demonstrated the utility of a single hs-cTnI concentration <5 ng/L at presentation to risk stratify patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS).
Purpose
To assess the safety and efficacy of a hs-cTnI concentration <5 ng/L at presentation in consecutive patients included in the High-STEACS (High-SensitivityTroponin in the Evaluation of patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome) randomised controlled trial.
Methods
The High-STEACS trial was a stepped wedge cluster randomised controlled trial in ten hospitals across Scotland that included 48,282 patients in whom high-sensitivity cardiac troponin was requested by the attending clinician for evaluation of suspected ACS. Patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) were excluded. We evaluated the negative predictive value (NPV) and sensitivity of a presentation hs-cTnI <5 ng/L for a composite outcome of type 1 myocardial infarction, or subsequent type 1 myocardial infarction or cardiac death at 30 days. To assess safety, we report the one-year risk of type 1 myocardial infarction or cardiac death. To assess efficacy, we report the proportion of patients with cardiac troponin <5 ng/L at presentation.
Results
We included 47,101 consecutive patients in the analysis (mean 61±17 years old, 47% female). Of these patients, 27,500 (58%) had a cardiac troponin <5 ng/L at presentation. Overall, 4,313/47,101 (9%) patients had a composite outcome at 30 days, but the event rate was only 0.4% in those with troponin <5 ng/L (98/27,500). The NPV for the composite outcome in those <5 ng/L was 99.7% (95% confidence intervals [CI] 99.6–99.7) and the sensitivity was 98.0% (95% CI 97.6–98.4). In those without evidence of myocardial injury at presentation (hs-cTnI <99thcentile), type 1 myocardial infarction or cardiac death at one year occurred in 197 (0.7%) patients with cardiac troponin <5 ng/L, compared to 647 (5.5%) of those ≥5 ng/L. The NPV was unchanged across all age groups, although efficacy fell as fewer older patients had hs-cTnI concentrations below the risk stratification threshold (see Figure).
Conclusion
A hs-cTnI concentration <5 ng/L at presentation identifies the majority of patients with suspected ACS as low-risk of early or late cardiac events. Although the proportion identified as low risk is reduced in older populations, the safety of this risk stratification approach is maintained across patients of all ages.
Acknowledgement/Funding
British Heart Foundation
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Affiliation(s)
- A Bularga
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - A Anand
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - F E Strachan
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - K K Lee
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - S Stewart
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - A V Ferry
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - A R Chapman
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - L Marshall
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - A S V Shah
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - D E Newby
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - N L Mills
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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Shah A, McAllister D, Astengo F, Perez J, Lee KK, Gallacher P, Hall J, Bing R, Anand A, Newby D, Mills N, Cruden N. 3325Incidence, outcomes and microbiology in patients with infective endocarditis. Eur Heart J 2019. [DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehz745.0077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Introduction
Despite recent improvements in management, infective endocarditis remains associated with high morbidity and mortality. Over the last few decades, several factors have impacted on both the incidence and outcomes following infective endocarditis.
Purpose
Using a national linkage approach, we describe the changing age- and sex-stratified incidence and outcomes of infective endocarditis in Scotland over the last 25 years.
Methods
We conducted a consecutive retrospective individual patient linkage study across multiple national databases. Using data extracted from the Scottish hospital discharge dataset held by the Information Services Division of NHS National Services Scotland, we extracted episodes for all patients aged 20 years or older who were admitted with infective endocarditis between January 1, 1990, and December 31, 2014 in Scotland, UK. Patient episodes with infective endocarditis were linked to national prescribing and microbiology databases. The primary outcome was 1-year mortality following the index presentation. Generalised additive models were constructed to estimate the crude and age- and sex-stratified incidence rates (using a poison distribution) as well as trends in mortality (using a binomial distribution) adjusted for age, sex and comorbidity.
Results
Across 12,446 individual patients, there were a total of 12,667 hospitalisations (mean age 68±17 years, 55% females) with infective endocarditis using a 5-year look back period. The estimated crude rate of hospitalisation increased from 7.38 per 100,000 (95% CI 6.58 to 8.28) in 1990 to 15.09 per 100,000 (95% CI 13.90 to 16.39) in 2014 (p<0.001). Over the period of the study, 31% (3,877/12,667) of people admitted to hospital with infective endocarditis died within one year of admission. Case fatality fell markedly in both men and women from 1990 to 2014 (Figure). Microbiology was status was available for 34% of all hospitalisations with staphylococcus cultures associated with worse outcomes.
Conclusions
Despite the crude incidence of infective endocarditis doubling over the last 25 years and case fatality remaining high, the risk of death has markedly fallen over the last two decades. Staphylococcus cultures remain an independent marker of poor prognosis in this cohort.
Acknowledgement/Funding
British Heart Foundation
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Affiliation(s)
- A Shah
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | | | - F Astengo
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - J Perez
- University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - K K Lee
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - P Gallacher
- University of Edinburgh, Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - J Hall
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - R Bing
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - A Anand
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - D Newby
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - N Mills
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - N Cruden
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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