External validation of the SI2NCAL2C score for outcomes following cerebral venous thrombosis

OBJECTIVES

Prognostication for cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) remains difficult. We sought to validate the SI2NCAL2C score in an international cohort.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The SI2NCAL2C score was originally developed to predict poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 3-6) at 6 months, and mortality at 30 days and 1 year using data from the International CVT Consortium. The SI2NCAL2C score uses 9 variables: the absence of any female-sex-specific risk factors, intracerebral hemorrhage, central nervous system infection, focal neurological deficits, coma, age, lower level of hemoglobin, higher level of glucose, and cancer. The ACTION-CVT study was an international retrospective study that enrolled consecutive patients across 27 centers. The poor outcome score was validated using 90-day mRS due to lack of follow-up at the 6-month time-point in the ACTION-CVT cohort. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots. Missing data were imputed using the additive regression and predictive mean matching methods. Bootstrapping was performed with 1000 iterations.

RESULTS

Mortality data were available for 950 patients and poor outcome data were available for 587 of 1,025 patients enrolled in ACTION-CVT. Compared to the International CVT Consortium, the ACTION-CVT cohort was older, less often female, and with milder clinical presentation. Mortality was 2.5% by 30 days and 6.0% by one year. At 90-days, 16.7% had a poor outcome. The SI2NCAL2C score had an AUC of 0.74 [95% CI 0.69-0.79] for 90-day poor outcome, 0.72 [0.60-0.82] for mortality by 30 days, and 0.82 [0.76-0.88] for mortality by one year.

CONCLUSIONS

The SI2NCAL2C score had acceptable to good performance in an international external validation cohort. The SI2NCAL2C score warrants additional validation studies in diverse populations and clinical implementation studies.

Association of Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status With Withdrawal of Life-Sustaining Therapies After Intracerebral Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Mortality after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is common. Neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES) is an important social determinant of health (SDoH) that can affect clinical outcome. We hypothesize that SDoH, including nSES, contribute to differences in withdrawal of life-sustaining therapies (WLSTs) and mortality in patients with ICH.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of patients with ICH at 3 tertiary care hospitals between January 2017 and December 2022 identified through the Get with the Guidelines Database. We collected data on age, clinical severity, race/ethnicity, median household income, insurance, marital status, religion, mortality before discharge, and WLST from the electronic medical record. We assessed for associations between SDoH and WLST, mortality, and poor discharge mRS using Mann-Whitney U tests and χ2 tests. We performed multivariable analysis using backward stepwise logistic regression.

RESULTS

We identified 868 patients (median age 67 [interquartile range (IQR) 55-78] years; 43% female) with ICH. Of them, 16% were Black non-Hispanic, 17% were Asian, and 15% were of Hispanic ethnicity; 50% were on Medicare and 22% on Medicaid, and the median (IQR) household income was $81,857 ($58,669-$122,078). Mortality occurred in 17% of patients, and of them, 84% of patients had WLST. Patients from zip codes with higher median household incomes had higher incidence of WLST and mortality (p < 0.01). Black non-Hispanic race was associated with lower WLST and discharge mortality (p ≤ 0.01 for both). In multivariable analysis adjusting for age and clinical severity scores, patients who lived in zip codes with high-income levels were more likely to have WLST (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.88; 95% CI 1.29-2.74) and mortality before discharge (aOR 1.5; 95% CI 1.06-2.13).

DISCUSSION

SDoH, including nSES, are associated with WLST after ICH. This has important implications for the care and management of patients with ICH.

Antithrombotic Treatment for Stroke Prevention in Cervical Artery Dissection: The STOP-CAD Study

Background: Small, randomized trials of cervical artery dissection (CAD) patients showed conflicting results regarding optimal stroke prevention strategies. We aimed to compare outcomes in patients with CAD treated with antiplatelets versus anticoagulation. Methods: This is a multi-center observational retrospective international study (16 countries, 63 sites) that included CAD patients without major trauma. The exposure was antithrombotic treatment type (anticoagulation vs. antiplatelets) and outcomes were subsequent ischemic stroke and major hemorrhage (intracranial or extracranial hemorrhage). We used adjusted Cox regression with Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting (IPTW) to determine associations between anticoagulation and study outcomes within 30 and 180 days. The main analysis used an "as treated" cross-over approach and only included outcomes occurring on the above treatments. Results: The study included 3,636 patients [402 (11.1%) received exclusively anticoagulation and 2,453 (67.5%) received exclusively antiplatelets]. By day 180, there were 162 new ischemic strokes (4.4%) and 28 major hemorrhages (0.8%); 87.0% of ischemic strokes occurred by day 30. In adjusted Cox regression with IPTW, compared to antiplatelet therapy, anticoagulation was associated with a non-significantly lower risk of subsequent ischemic stroke by day 30 (adjusted HR 0.71 95% CI 0.45-1.12, p=0.145) and by day 180 (adjusted HR 0.80 95% CI 0.28-2.24, p=0.670). Anticoagulation therapy was not associated with a higher risk of major hemorrhage by day 30 (adjusted HR 1.39 95% CI 0.35-5.45, p=0.637) but was by day 180 (adjusted HR 5.56 95% CI 1.53-20.13, p=0.009). In interaction analyses, patients with occlusive dissection had significantly lower ischemic stroke risk with anticoagulation (adjusted HR 0.40 95% CI 0.18-0.88) (Pinteraction=0.009). Conclusions: Our study does not rule out a benefit of anticoagulation in reducing ischemic stroke risk, particularly in patients with occlusive dissection. If anticoagulation is chosen, it seems reasonable to switch to antiplatelet therapy before 180 days to lower the risk of major bleeding. Large prospective studies are needed to validate our findings.

Predictors of Recurrent Venous Thrombosis After Cerebral Venous Thrombosis: Analysis of the ACTION-CVT Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) is a rare cause of stroke carrying a nearly 4% risk of recurrence after 1 year. There are limited data on predictors of recurrent venous thrombosis in patients with CVT. In this study, we aim to identify those predictors.

METHODS

This is a secondary analysis of the ACTION-CVT study which is a multicenter international study of consecutive patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of CVT over a 6-year period. Patients with cancer-associated CVT, CVT during pregnancy, or CVT in the setting of known antiphospholipid antibody syndrome were excluded per the ACTION-CVT protocol. The study outcome was recurrent venous thrombosis defined as recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) or de novo CVT. We compared characteristics between patients with vs without recurrent venous thrombosis during follow-up and performed adjusted Cox regression analyses to determine important predictors of recurrent venous thrombosis.

RESULTS

Nine hundred forty-seven patients were included with a mean age of 45.2 years, 63.9% were women, and 83.6% had at least 3 months of follow-up. During a median follow-up of 308 (interquartile range 120-700) days, there were 5.05 recurrent venous thromboses (37 VTE and 24 de novo CVT) per 100 patient-years. Predictors of recurrent venous thrombosis were Black race (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.13, 95% CI 1.14-3.98, p = 0.018), history of VTE (aHR 3.40, 95% CI 1.80-6.42, p < 0.001), and the presence of one or more positive antiphospholipid antibodies (aHR 3.85, 95% CI 1.97-7.50, p < 0.001). Sensitivity analyses including events only occurring on oral anticoagulation yielded similar findings.

DISCUSSION

Black race, history of VTE, and the presence of one or more antiphospholipid antibodies are associated with recurrent venous thrombosis among patients with CVT. Future studies are needed to validate our findings to better understand mechanisms and treatment strategies in patients with CVT.

Direct Oral Anticoagulants Versus Warfarin in the Treatment of Cerebral Venous Thrombosis (ACTION-CVT): A Multicenter International Study

BACKGROUND

A small randomized controlled trial suggested that dabigatran may be as effective as warfarin in the treatment of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT). We aimed to compare direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) to warfarin in a real-world CVT cohort.

METHODS

This multicenter international retrospective study (United States, Europe, New Zealand) included consecutive patients with CVT treated with oral anticoagulation from January 2015 to December 2020. We abstracted demographics and CVT risk factors, hypercoagulable labs, baseline imaging data, and clinical and radiological outcomes from medical records. We used adjusted inverse probability of treatment weighted Cox-regression models to compare recurrent cerebral or systemic venous thrombosis, death, and major hemorrhage in patients treated with warfarin versus DOACs. We performed adjusted inverse probability of treatment weighted logistic regression to compare recanalization rates on follow-up imaging across the 2 treatments groups.

RESULTS

Among 1025 CVT patients across 27 centers, 845 patients met our inclusion criteria. Mean age was 44.8 years, 64.7% were women; 33.0% received DOAC only, 51.8% received warfarin only, and 15.1% received both treatments at different times. During a median follow-up of 345 (interquartile range, 140-720) days, there were 5.68 recurrent venous thrombosis, 3.77 major hemorrhages, and 1.84 deaths per 100 patient-years. Among 525 patients who met recanalization analysis inclusion criteria, 36.6% had complete, 48.2% had partial, and 15.2% had no recanalization. When compared with warfarin, DOAC treatment was associated with similar risk of recurrent venous thrombosis (aHR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.51-1.73]; P=0.84), death (aHR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.22-2.76]; P=0.70), and rate of partial/complete recanalization (aOR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.48-1.73]; P=0.79), but a lower risk of major hemorrhage (aHR, 0.35 [95% CI, 0.15-0.82]; P=0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with CVT, treatment with DOACs was associated with similar clinical and radiographic outcomes and favorable safety profile when compared with warfarin treatment. Our findings need confirmation by large prospective or randomized studies.

High altitude modulates concussion incidence, severity, and recovery in young athletes

BACKGROUND

High altitude may affect concussion, but prior studies are limited . We tested whether high altitude affects sport-related concussion (SRC) incidence, severity, and recovery.

METHODS

Twenty-five thousand eight hundred fifteen baseline and post-injury Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing results were compiled from Florida and Colorado, low (27 m or 62 m) and high (1,640 m or 1,991 m) altitude locations, respectively. Incidence, severity, and recovery of injury were compared between altitudes.

RESULTS

High altitude was associated with increased suspected concussion incidence (adjusted OR, 2.04 [95% CI, 1.86 to 2.24];P < .0001). However, high altitude was associated with lower concussion severity measured by Severity Index (SI) (adjusted OR, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.37 to 0.49];P < .0001). High altitude was associated with decreased recovery from post-concussive symptoms in the migraine (β, -2.72 [95% CI, -3.31 to -2.13]; P < .0001), cognitive (β, -1.88 [95% CI, -2.40 to -1.36]; P < .0001), and sleep symptom clusters (β, -0.30 [95% CI, -0.52 to -0.08]; P = .007). Athletes with initial SI≥8 showed prolonged neurocognitive dysfunction at high altitude (HR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.06 to 1.81]; P = .02).

CONCLUSIONS

High altitude was associated with increased suspected concussions and prolonged recovery but less severe initial injury.

Antiplatelet Use and Ischemic Stroke Risk in Minor Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack: A Post Hoc Analysis of the POINT Trial

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Dual antiplatelet therapy has been shown to reduce the risk of recurrent stroke in patients with minor stroke or transient ischemic attack. However, whether the effect of dual antiplatelet therapy is modified by pretreatment antiplatelet status is unclear.

METHODS

This is a post hoc analysis of the POINT trial (Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke). Patients were divided into 2 groups based on pretreatment antiplatelet use. The primary outcome was ischemic stroke within 90 days of randomization.

RESULTS

We included 4881 patients of whom 41% belonged to the no pretreatment antiplatelet. Ischemic stroke occurred in 6% and 5% in the antiplatelet pretreatment and no antiplatelet pretreatment, respectively. Antiplatelet pretreatment was not associated with the risk of ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.81-137]) or risk of major hemorrhage (hazard ratio, 1.10 [95% CI, 0.55-2.21]; P=0.794). The effect of dual antiplatelet therapy on recurrent ischemic stroke risk was not different in patients who were on antiplatelet before randomization (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.50-0.94]) as opposed to those who were not (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.50-1.12]), P for interaction = 0.685.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with minor stroke and high-risk transient ischemic attack, dual antiplatelet therapy reduces the risk of ischemic stroke regardless of premorbid antiplatelet use.

Sex-Related Differences in the Incidence, Severity, and Recovery of Concussion in Adolescent Student-Athletes Between 2009 and 2019

BACKGROUND

The sex of an athlete is thought to modulate concussion incidence; however, the effects of sex on concussion severity and recovery are less clear.

PURPOSE

To evaluate sex differences in concussion severity and recovery using a large, heterogeneous sample of young student-athletes with the goal of understanding how sex affects concussion outcomes in young athletes.

STUDY DESIGN

Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3.

METHODS

The Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing results of 11,563 baseline and 5216 postinjury tests were used to calculate the incidence of concussion of adolescent male and female student-athletes ages 12 to 22 years (median, 15 years). The postinjury tests of 3465 male and 1751 female student-athletes evaluated for concussion or head trauma were used to assess differences in the Severity Index (SI) and recovery. Chi-square tests and t tests were used to compare differences in demographic characteristics, incidence, and SI between the 2 cohorts. Multivariable linear, logistic, and Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to control for differences between cohorts in analyses of incidence, SI, and recovery.

RESULTS

When we controlled for demographic differences, female participants had higher odds of concussion (odds ratio, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.40-1.86; P < .0001) and higher SI after concussion (β = 0.67; 95% CI, 0.02-1.32; P = .04). This discrepancy in SI was a result of differences in Symptom (2.40 vs 2.94; P < .0001) and Processing Speed (0.91 vs 1.06; P = .01) composite scores between male and female participants, respectively. We found no effect of sex on time to recovery when controlling for initial concussion SI (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.78-1.12; P = .48).

CONCLUSION

Using large, multisport cohorts, this study provides evidence that female athletes are at higher risk for more concussions and these concussions are more severe, but male and female athletes have similar recovery times when the analysis controls for initial concussion SI.

Abstract P91: Excess Cerebrovascular Mortality in the U.S. During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Introduction: The magnitude and drivers of excess cerebrovascular-specific mortality during the coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) pandemic are unknown. We aim to quantify excess stroke-related death and characterize its association with psychosocial factors and emerging COVID-19 related mortality.

Methods: U.S. and state-level excess cerebrovascular deaths from January-May 2020 were quantified by Poisson regression models built using National Center for Health Statistic (NCHS) data. Weekly excess cerebrovascular deaths in the U.S. were analyzed as functions of time-varying, weekly stroke-related EMS calls and weekly COVID-19 deaths by univariable linear regression. A state-level negative binomial regression analysis was performed to determine the association between excess cerebrovascular deaths and social distancing (degree of change in mobility per Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports) during the height of the pandemic after the first COVID-19 death (February 29, 2020), adjusting for cumulative COVID-19 related deaths and completeness of deaths attributable to COVID-19 in NCHS.

Findings: There were 918 more cerebrovascular deaths than expected from January 1-May 16 th , 2020 in the U.S. Excess cerebrovascular mortality occurred during every week between March 28-May 2 nd , 2020, up to 7.8% during the week of April 18 th . Decreased stroke-related EMS calls were associated with excess stroke deaths one (β -0.06, 95% CI -0.11, -0.02) and two weeks (β -0.08, 95% CI -0.12, -0.04) later. There was no significant association between weekly excess stroke death and COVID-19 death. Twenty-three states and NYC experienced excess cerebrovascular mortality during the pandemic height. At the state level, a 10% increase in social distancing was associated with a 4.3% increase in stroke deaths (IRR 1.043, 95% CI 1.001–1.085) after adjusting for COVID-19 mortality.

Conclusions: Excess U.S. cerebrovascular deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic were observed with decreases in stroke-related EMS calls nationally and less mobility at the state level. Public health measures are needed to identify and counter the reticence to seeking medical care for acute stroke during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Policy Interventions, Social Distancing, and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in the United States: A Retrospective State-level Analysis

BACKGROUND

Various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as stay-at-home orders and school closures have been employed to limit the spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This study measures the impact of social distancing policies on COVID-19 transmission in US states during the early outbreak phase to assess which policies were most effective.

METHODS

To measure transmissibility, we analyze the average effective reproductive number (R_t) in each state the week following its 500th case and doubling time from 500 to 1000 cases. Linear and logistic regressions were performed to assess the impact of various NPIs while controlling for population density, GDP, and certain health metrics. This analysis was repeated for deaths with doubling time to 100 deaths with several healthcare infrastructure control variables.

RESULTS

States with stay-at-home orders in place at the time of their 500th case were associated with lower average R_t the following week compared to states without them (p<0.001) and significantly less likely to have an R_t>1 (OR 0.07, 95% CI 0.01-0.37, p = 0.004). These states also experienced longer doubling time from 500 to 1000 cases (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.17-0.72, p = 0.004). States in the highest quartile of average time spent at home were also slower to reach 1000 cases than those in the lowest quartile (HR 0.18, 95% CI 0.06-0.53, p = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Stay-at-home orders had the largest effect of any policy analyzed. Multivariate analyses with cellphone tracking data suggest social distancing adherence drives these effects. States that plan to scale back such measures should carefully monitor transmission metrics.

Association of race and ethnicity to incident epilepsy, or epileptogenesis, after subdural hematoma

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether race is associated with the development of epilepsy after subdural hematoma (SDH), we identified adult survivors of SDH in a statewide administrative dataset and followed them up for at least 1 year for revisits associated with epilepsy.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study using claims data on all discharges from emergency departments (EDs) and hospitals in California. We identified adults (age ≥18 years) admitted from 2005 to 2011 with first-time traumatic and nontraumatic SDH. We used validated diagnosis codes to identify a primary outcome of ED or inpatient revisit for epilepsy. We used multivariable Cox regression for survival analysis to identify demographic and medical risk factors for epilepsy.

RESULTS

We identified 29,342 survivors of SDH (mean age 71.2 [SD 16.4] years, female sex 11,954 [41.1%]). Three thousand two hundred thirty (11.0%) patients had revisits to EDs or hospitals with a diagnosis of epilepsy during the study period. Black patients (n = 1,684 [5.7%]) had significantly increased risk compared to White patients (n = 16,945 [57.7%]; hazard ratio [HR] 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28-1.64, p < 0.001). Status epilepticus during the index SDH admission, although infrequent (n = 94 [0.3%]), was associated with a nearly 4-fold risk of epilepsy (HR 3.75, 95% CI 2.80-5.03, p < 0.001). Alcohol use, drug use, smoking, renal disease, and markers of injury severity (i.e., intubation, surgical intervention, length of stay, disposition other than home) were also associated with epilepsy (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

We found an association between Black race and ED and hospital revisits for epilepsy after SDH, establishing the presence of a racial subgroup that is particularly vulnerable to post-SDH epileptogenesis.

Early Prognostication of 1-Year Outcome After Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: The FRESH Score Validation

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The FRESH score is a tool to prognosticate long-term outcomes after spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Here, for the first time, we aimed to externally validate the disability part of FRESH using its original four score variables.

METHODS

A total of 107 patients with SAH were prospectively enrolled in the Yale Acute Brain Injury Biorepository between September 2014 and January 2018. 12-month functional outcome was recorded prospectively by trained study investigators using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). FRESH-scores were calculated retrospectively using the original score variables. We used R² statistics to assess goodness of fit, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to assess ability of the score to discriminate between favorable and unfavorable (defined as mRS 4-6) outcome.

RESULTS

We identified 86 patients with SAH with complete 1-year follow-up data. Mean age was 60 years, 60% were women. An aneurysmal bleeding source was found in 71% of patients. 80% underwent aneurysm coiling, and 5% clipping. Sixteen percent of patients were considered high grade on admission (Hunt&Hess score 4 or 5). Discrimination of the FRESH score between favorable and unfavorable outcome was high (AUC 90.8%, confidence interval 81.9%-96.5%). Nagelkerke's (.54) and Cox&Snell's R² (.35) indicated satisfactory fit. Exclusion of patients without aneurysmal etiology of SAH did not significantly alter model performance.

CONCLUSIONS

FRESH, a prognostication score of long-term outcomes in patients with SAH showed excellent score performance in this external validation. FRESH may guide the efficient use of hospital resources, family discussions, and stratification of patients in future randomized controlled trials.