What Is Required to End the AIDS Epidemic as a Public Health Threat by 2030? The Cost and Impact of the Fast-Track Approach

In 2011 a new Investment Framework was proposed that described how the scale-up of key HIV interventions could dramatically reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in low and middle income countries by 2015. This framework included ambitious coverage goals for prevention and treatment services for 2015, resulting in a reduction of new HIV infections by more than half, in line with the goals of the declaration of the UN High Level Meeting in June 2011. However, the approach suggested a leveling in the number of new infections at about 1 million annually—far from the UNAIDS goal of ending AIDS by 2030. In response, UNAIDS has developed the Fast-Track approach that is intended to provide a roadmap to the actions required to achieve this goal. The Fast-Track approach is predicated on a rapid scale-up of focused, effective prevention and treatment services over the next 5 years and then maintaining a high level of programme implementation until 2030. Fast-Track aims to reduce new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% from 2010 to 2030 and proposes a set of biomedical, behavioral and enabling intervention targets for 2020 and 2030 to achieve that goal, including the rapid scale-up initiative for antiretroviral treatment known as 90-90-90. Compared to a counterfactual scenario of constant coverage for all services at early-2015 levels, the Fast-Track approach would avert 18 million HIV infections and 11 million deaths from 2016 to 2030 globally. This paper describes the analysis that produced these targets and the estimated resources needed to achieve them in low- and middle-income countries. It indicates that it is possible to achieve these goals with a significant push to achieve rapid scale-up of key interventions between now and 2020. The annual resources required from all sources would rise to US$7.4Bn in low-income countries, US$8.2Bn in lower middle-income countries and US$10.5Bn in upper-middle-income-countries by 2020 before declining approximately 9% by 2030.

Scaling-up the use of generic antiretrovirals in resource-limited countries: generic drugs for health

The number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) continues to increase around the world because of the increasing number on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and their associated increase of life expectancy, in addition to the number of people newly infected with HIV each year. Unless a 'cure' can be found for HIV infection, PLHIV can anticipate the need to take antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) for the rest of their lives. Because ARVs are now being used for HIV prevention, as well as for therapeutic purposes, the need for effective, affordable ARVs with few adverse effects will continue to rise. It is important to note that the dramatic growth in treatment coverage of PLHIV seen during the past decade has been primarily due to the increased use of generic ARVs. Thus, there will be a need to scale-up the research and development, production, distribution and access to generic ARVs and ART regimens. However, these processes must occur within national and international regulated free-market economic systems and must deal with increasingly multifaceted patent issues affecting the price while ensuring the quality of the ARVs. National and international regulatory mechanisms will have to evolve, which will affect broader national and international economic and trade issues. Because of the complexity of these issues, the Editors of this Supplement conceived of asking experts in their fields to describe the various steps from relevant research and development, to production of generic ARVs, their delivery to countries and subsequently to PLHIV in low- and middle-income countries. A main objective was to highlight how these steps are interrelated, how the production and delivery of these drugs to PLHIV in resource-limited countries can be made more effective and efficient, and what the lessons are for the production and delivery of a broader set of drugs to people in low- and middle-income countries.

Determinants of survival in adult Brazilian AIDS patients, 1982-1989. The Brazilian State AIDS Program Co-Ordinators

OBJECTIVE

Little has been published about the length and determinants of survival for persons with AIDS in developing countries. This study examined the survival experience of Brazilian AIDS patients from 1982 to 1989.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study involving record review of reported AIDS cases.

METHODS

We obtained information about 2135 adult AIDS patients in Brazil. Local health officials supplied data regarding demographic and clinical characteristics and length of survival. Statistical techniques of survival analysis were applied.

RESULTS

Median survival was 5.1 months, much shorter than in developed countries, and there was no improvement in survival for cases diagnosed more recently. Younger patients and those in the intravenous drug use exposure category lived longer than other AIDS patients. Those presenting with Kaposi's sarcoma, esophageal candidiasis, and tuberculosis fared relatively well, while those presenting with multiple diagnoses or toxoplasmosis did more poorly.

CONCLUSIONS

These results tend to confirm the predictors of AIDS survival previously reported from developed countries and to document the poor survival of AIDS patients in the developing world.