Geospatial Distribution and Predictors of Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19: A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic offers the opportunity to assess how hospitals manage the care of hospitalized patients with varying demographics and clinical presentations. The goal of this study was to demonstrate the impact of densely populated residential areas on hospitalization and to identify predictors of length of stay and mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in one of the hardest hit counties internationally.

METHODS

This was a single-center cohort study of 1325 sequentially hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in New York between March 2, 2020, to May 11, 2020. Geospatial distribution of study patients' residences relative to population density in the region were mapped, and data analysis included hospital length of stay, need and duration of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and mortality. Logistic regression models were constructed to predict discharge dispositions in the remaining active study patients.

RESULTS

The median age of the study cohort (interquartile range [IQR]) was 62 (49-75) years, and more than half were male (57%) with history of hypertension (60%), obesity (41%), and diabetes (42%). Geographic residence of the study patients was disproportionately associated with areas of higher population density (r s = 0.235; P = .004), with noted "hot spots" in the region. Study patients were predominantly hypertensive (MAP > 90 mmHg; 670, 51%) on presentation with lymphopenia (590, 55%), hyponatremia (411, 31%), and kidney dysfunction (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2; 381, 29%). Of the patients with a disposition (1188/1325), 15% (182/1188) required IMV and 21% (250/1188) developed acute kidney injury. In patients on IMV, the median (IQR) hospital length of stay in survivors (22 [16.5-29.5] days) was significantly longer than that of nonsurvivors (15 [10-23.75] days), but this was not due to prolonged time on the ventilator. The overall mortality in all hospitalized patients was 15%, and in patients receiving IMV it was 48%, which is predicted to minimally rise from 48% to 49% based on logistic regression models constructed to project disposition in the remaining patients on ventilators. Acute kidney injury during hospitalization (odds ratioE, 3.23) was the strongest predictor of mortality in patients requiring IMV.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to collectively utilize the demographics, clinical characteristics, and hospital course of COVID-19 patients to identify predictors of poor outcomes that can be used for resource allocation in future waves of the pandemic.

Effects of pentastarch and albumin infusion on cardiorespiratory function and coagulation in patients with severe sepsis and systemic hypoperfusion

Twenty consecutive patients with severe sepsis were randomized to fluid challenge with 5% albumin or 10% low MW hydroxyethyl starch (pentastarch) solutions. Fluid challenge was administered iv as 250 ml of test colloid every 15 min until the pulmonary artery wedge pressure (WP) was greater than or equal to 15 mm Hg or a maximum dose of 2000 ml was infused. Hemodynamic, respiratory, and coagulation profiles were measured before and after fluid infusion. The amount of colloid required to achieve a WP of 15 mm Hg was comparable between groups. Both colloid infusions resulted in similar increases in cardiac output, stroke output, and stroke work. The effect of fluid infusion with pentastarch on coagulation was not significantly different from albumin, although pentastarch was associated with a 45% decrease in factor VIII:c. We conclude that pentastarch is equivalent to albumin for fluid resuscitation of patients with severe sepsis.

Survival of cutaneous malignant melanoma patients at University of Iowa Hospitals: 1950--1974

Survival of 387 patients treated for cutaneous malignant melanoma at University of Iowa Hospitals during the period 1950--1974 was analyzed. For the entire period, the observed five-year survivals were 57% for women and 33% for men; the corresponding ten-year survivals were 43 and 23%. For both men and women, there was an impressive improvement in outcome between the earliest and the latest periods, so that for 1970--1974, the five-year observed survival was 68% for women and 49% for men. Data are presented on mean age at diagnosis, distribution by stage, site, and sex, and survival by site and sex. The question is raised whether the biologic nature of malignant melanoma is variable, so that increased incidence is associated with better prognosis.

Wilms' tumor in New York State: epidemiology and survivorship

The outcomes during the period 1950--1972 were compared for Wilms' tumor patients in Erie County, New York (Buffalo and environs) and in a random selection of 23 counties having much smaller populations. For the Erie cohorts of 1967 to 1972 an 87 per cent 7-year survival rate was found as compared with a 50 per cent survival for the corresponding cohorts of the less populous couties. For the years 1960--1966 the 5-year survival rates were respectively 67 and 25 per cent and for the decade 1950--1959, 26 and 23 per cent. The principal conclusion is that within the last 15 years the Erie residents have fared better than residents of the smaller counties. The difference is attributed to the better treatment and care available at some of the hospitals in Buffalo. Data on incidence, age at diagnosis, male/female ratio, and laterality are presented.