Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy.

METHODS

For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU.

FINDINGS

For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier.

INTERPRETATION

Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

Plasma amyloid-beta levels and risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation in the general population

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major health burden worldwide, with significant sex differences in epidemiology and risk factors. Amyloid-β40 (Aβ40) and Amyloid-β42 (Aβ42), the hallmark of cerebral amyloid angiopathy, have recently been linked to prevalence and prognosis of several cardiovascular outcomes including stroke and coronary heart disease. However, whether these biomarkers are associated with incident AF remains largely unknown.

Purpose

To investigate the associations between plasma concentrations of Aβ40 and Aβ42 with new-onset AF.

Methods

4,134 participants without a history of AF at baseline (from 2002 to 2005) with qualified plasma samples in the Rotterdam Study were included in this study. AF was diagnosed by electrocardiograms, general practitioners' and hospital records. Cox proportional hazards regression models with natural cubic splines were used to assess the linear/nonlinear association between biomarkers and risk of new-onset AF. All models were adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

Results

Mean age was 71.3±7.2 years and 2,383 (57.6%) were women. Median follow-up time was 9.2 years. In the fully adjusted model, higher levels of Aβ40 [hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval: 1.16 (1.05–1.28)] and Aβ42 [1.19 (1.09–1.31)], as well as Amyloid-β42 to β40 ratio (Aβ42/40) [1.09 (1.02–1.17)] were significantly associated with incident AF. The observed association between Aβ40 and AF attenuated after mutual adjustment for Aβ42 [1.05 (0.92–1.19)]. In addition, a J-shaped association was found between Aβ40 and AF with the lowest AF risk at Aβ40 values of 212.5 pg/ml.

Conclusions

Both Aβ40 and Aβ42 were independently significantly associated with new-onset AF in the general population independent of cardiovascular risk factors. Findings also suggest a stronger association between AF onset and Aβ42 and AF onset, compared to Aβ40. A nonlinear association was found between Aβ40 and AF, reflecting a substantially increased AF risk among participants with severely increased Aβ40 values.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Cardiometabolic multimorbidity and lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation among men and women

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrythmia worldwide, with an increased risk of comorbidity, and significant sex differences in pathophysiology and prognosis. Cardiometabolic disorders, including obesity, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure commonly coexist with AF. However, the sex-specific patterns and (combined) impact of cardiometabolic disorders on the risk of new-onset AF remains largely unknown.

Purpose

To examine the association between patterns of cardiometabolic multimorbidity and new-onset AF and lifetime risk of AF incidence among men and women.

Methods

4,113 men and 5,432 women free of prevalent AF at baseline (from 1996 to 2008) from the Rotterdam Study were included. AF incidents were assessed by electrocardiograms and general practitioners' and hospital records, and followed up to January 1st, 2014. Sex-specific Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association between the amount of cardiometabolic disorders and risks of new-onset AF. Models were adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Remaining lifetime risk for AF was estimated across the cardiometabolic multimorbidity groups at index ages of 55, 65, and ≥75 years up to age 108.

Results

Mean age at baseline was 65.5±9.4 years. Median follow-up time was 10.8 years. In the fully-adjusted model, a significant association was found between the amount of cardiometabolic disorders and incident AF among women but not men. Compared to women without cardiometabolic disorders, women with 3 (hazard ratios, 95% conference intervals: 2.17 (1.24–3.79)) and ≥4 comorbidities (4.58 (2.22–9.48)) had higher AF risks. The lifetime risk for AF was significantly increased with the number of cardiometabolic disorders among both men and women. At index age of 55 years, the lifetime risks (95% confidence interval) for AF were 25.2% (17.1–33.4), 24.2% (20.0–28.9), 27.1% (23.2–31.0), 30.0% (24.3–35.7) and 34.1% (22.4–45.7), for 0, 1, 2, 3, and ≥4 comorbid cardiometabolic disorders among men, respectively. Corresponding risks were 16.3% (6.68–25.9), 20.3% (16.3–24.3), 27.6% (24.1–31.2), 23.6% (17.8–29.4) and 33.3% (16.0–50.2) among women.

Conclusions

We observed a significant combined impact of cardiometabolic disorders on AF risk, most evidently among women. Participants with cardiometabolic multimorbidity had a significantly increased lifetime risk of AF, especially at a young index age.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Second allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation in relapsed acute and chronic leukaemias for patients who underwent a first allogeneic bone marrow transplantation: a survey of the Société Française de Greffe de moelle (SFGM)

Although recurrent malignancy is the most frequent indication for second stem cell transplantation (2nd SCT), there are few reports that include sufficiently large numbers of patients to enable prognostic factor analysis. This retrospective study includes 150 patients who underwent a 2nd SCT for relapsed acute myeloblastic leukaemia (n = 61), acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (n = 47) or chronic myeloid leukaemia (n = 42) after a first allogeneic transplant (including 26 T-cell-depleted). The median interval between the first transplant and relapse, and between relapse and second transplant was 17 months and 5 months respectively. After the 2nd SCT, engraftment occurred in 93% of cases, 32% of patients developed acute graft-vs.-host disease (GVHD) >/= grade II and 38% chronic GVHD. The 5-year overall and disease-free survival were 32 +/- 8% and 30 +/- 8%, respectively, with a risk of relapse of 44 +/- 12% and a transplant-related mortality of 45 +/- 9%. In a multivariate analysis, five factors were associated with a better outcome after 2nd SCT: age < 16 years at second transplant; relapse occurring more than 12 months after the first transplant; transplantation from a female donor; absence of acute GVHD; and the occurrence of chronic GVHD. The best candidates for a second transplant are likely to be patients with acute leukaemia in remission before transplant, in whom the HLA-identical donor was female and who relapsed more than 1 year after the first transplant.