HPV type-specific trends in cervical precancers in the United States, 2008-2016

Declines in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2-3 and adenocarcinoma in situ (CIN2+) observed among young women suggest impact from human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. To further evaluate vaccine impact including cross-protection and type replacement, we described high-risk (HR)-HPV type-specific cervical precancer incidence rates among women aged 20-39 years, 2008-2016. We analyzed cross-sectional population-based data on 18,344 cases of CIN2+ from a 5-site surveillance system. Diagnostic specimens were tested for individual HPV types, including 14 HR-HPV types (HPV16/18/31/33/35/39/45/51/52/56/58/59/66/68). We estimated age-specific annual HR-HPV type-specific CIN2+ incidence per 100,000 screened women for individual types, vaccine HR-HPV types (HPV16/18) and non-vaccine HR-HPV types (non-HPV16/18). We evaluated trends using average annual percent changes (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), and estimated total declines by comparing 2015-2016 to 2008-2009 using incidence rate ratios. Among 20-24-year-olds, HPV16/18-CIN2+ declined from 2008 through 2016 (AAPC: -21.3%, 95% CI: -28.1%, -13.8%), whereas no trend was observed for non-HPV16/18-CIN2+ (AAPC: -1.8%, 95% CI: -8.1%, 4.9%). After 2010, CIN2+ among 20-24-year-olds was more often caused by non-vaccine versus vaccine HR-HPV types. No significant declining trends were observed in older age groups. In 2015-2016 compared to 2008-2009, HPV16-CIN2+ declined 78%, HPV18-CIN2+ 72%, and HPV31-CIN2+ 51% among 20-24-year-olds; no increases were observed in type-specific CIN2+ incidence. Among 25-29-year-olds, HPV16-CIN2+ declined 18%; CIN2+ attributed to seven nonvaccine types increased significantly. No significant declines were observed in older groups. Significant declines in HPV16/18-CIN2+ in 20-24-year-olds and HPV16-CIN2+ in 25-29-year-olds corroborate impact of HPV vaccination. A declining trend in HPV31-CIN2+ is consistent with cross-protection from vaccination.

Impact of prior underinsurance on cervical cancer screening among Davidson County, Tennessee, women diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer, 2008-2018

INTRODUCTION

We sought to investigate the association between insurance coverage history and cervical cancer screening among Davidson County, Tennessee, women diagnosed with incident cervical cancer.

METHODS

We reviewed medical records of women diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer from 2008 through 2018 identified via the state's cancer registry and by active surveillance of diagnostic pathology reports for the HPV-IMPACT project. Per 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force recommended cervical cancer screening guidelines, women were characterized into three screening history categories: "no screening", "no follow-up" and "test/screening failure". Multivariable logistic regression measured the association of prior inadequate insurance (underinsurance) and screening history ("no screening/no follow-up" compared to "test/screening failure").

RESULTS

Of 212 women, most (77%) had not undergone recommended cervical cancer screening or follow-up prior to cancer diagnosis. Overall, 28% of women had history of underinsurance in 5 years prior to diagnosis. In adjusted analyses, underinsured women were more likely to have a "no screening/no follow-up" prior to cancer diagnosis (aOR 4.26; 95% CI 1.15-15.80) compared to "test/screening failure" history. Non-white race (aOR 2.73; 95% CI 0.98-7.61), older age (aOR 1.03 per year; 95% CI 1.00-1.07), and history of smoking (aOR 4.07; 95% CI 1.54-10.74) were also associated with increased likelihood of "no screening/no follow-up".

CONCLUSIONS

Previous underinsurance was independently associated with non-adherence to cervical cancer screening and follow-up guidelines among women with incident cervical cancer. Further study of factors contributing to inadequate cervical cancer screening and interventions to increase cervical cancer screening in high-risk populations is needed.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Impact on Cervical Precancers in a Low-Vaccination Population

INTRODUCTION

Demonstrating human papillomavirus vaccine impact is critical for informing guidelines to increase vaccination and decrease human papillomavirus‒related outcomes, particularly in states with suboptimal vaccination coverage, such as Tennessee. This study examines the trends in high-grade cervical lesion incidence among Tennessee Medicaid-enrolled women aged 18-39 years and the subset of women who were screened for cervical cancer.

METHODS

Using a validated claims-based model to identify incident cervical intraepithelial neoplasia Grades 2 or 3 or adenocarcinoma in situ events, annual age group‒specific incidence rates from Tennessee Medicaid billing data, 2008-2018, were calculated. Significant trends were determined by Joinpoint. Analyses were conducted in 2020.

RESULTS

From 2008 to 2018, high-grade cervical lesion incidence significantly declined in women aged 18-20 years (average annual percentage change= -31.9, 95% CI= -38.6, -24.6), 21-24 years (average annual percentage change= -12.9, 95% CI= -22.3, -2.4), and 25-29 years (average annual percentage change= -6.4, 95% CI= -8.1, -4.6). Among screened women, rates significantly declined for ages 18-20 years (average annual percentage change= -20.3, 95% CI= -25.3, -15.0), 21-24 years (average annual percentage change= -10.2, 95% CI= -12.6, -7.8), and 25-29 years (average annual percentage change= -2.6, 95% CI= -3.9, -1.2). Trends from 2008 to 2018 were stable for older age groups (30-34 and 35-39 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Results show reductions in high-grade cervical lesion incidence among ages most likely to have benefited from the human papillomavirus vaccine. Declines among young, screened women suggest causes other than reduction in screening. Evidence of vaccine impact in populations with low-vaccination coverage, such as Tennessee, is promising.

826. HIV Infection and HPV Genotype Patterns among Young Women with Advanced Cervical Neoplasia in Davidson County, Tennessee

Background

Women living with HIV (WLWH) experience high rates of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and increased risk of cervical cancer. High-risk HPV (HR-HPV) types 16/18 cause most cervical precancers and cancers in women with and without HIV. However, contributions of other HR-HPV types to cervical disease among WLWH are not fully understood. We compared CIN2+ cases (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or higher or adenocarcinoma in situ) and the association between non-16/18 HPV types among women with and without HIV.

Methods

Davidson County, Tennessee, women aged 18-39 years with CIN2+ diagnosed between 2008-2016 with HPV genotyping were included. HIV status, demographics, and histology were abstracted from medical records. Neighborhood-level socioeconomic factors were derived from Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. Archived cervical tissue was tested for 37 HPV types to define CIN2+ cases negative for HPV 16/18, regardless of presence of other HR-HPV strains. Characteristics of women with CIN2+ and HPV typing patterns were compared between women with and without HIV using Wilcoxon and Chi-square tests. Logistic regression assessed the association of non-16/18 HPV types and HIV infection, adjusting for age, race, calendar year, insurance, HPV vaccination, and neighborhood socioeconomic factors (selected a priori).

Results

Among 2,116 women included, 1,093 (52%) had neither HPV16 nor HPV18. Compared to women without HIV, the 27 WLWH included were more likely to be >30 years of age, Black race, and live in neighborhoods with higher measures of poverty (Table 1). HPV types did not statistically differ by HIV status, though WLWH had a higher number of HR-HPV types present (Table 2). HIV infection was not significantly associated with non-16/18 HPV type after adjusting for confounders (adjusted OR 0.86 [95%CI: 0.4-1.88]).

Conclusion

Among women with CIN2+, HIV infection was not significantly associated with non-16/18 HPV types. However, WLWH had a higher number of high-risk HPV types detected. Our study was limited by the small number of WLWH included.

Disclosures

All Authors: No reported disclosures

Improving Cervical Precancer Surveillance: Validity of Claims-Based Prediction Models in ICD-9 and ICD-10 Eras

Background

Human papillomavirus vaccine (HPV) impact on cervical precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2+ [CIN2+]) is observable sooner than impact on cancer. Biopsy-confirmed CIN2+ is not included in most US cancer registries. Billing codes could provide surrogate metrics; however, the International Classification of Diseases, ninth (ICD-9) to tenth (ICD-10) transition disrupts trends. We built, validated, and compared claims-based models to identify CIN2+ events in both ICD eras.

Methods

A database of Davidson County (Nashville), Tennessee, pathology-confirmed CIN2+ from the HPV Vaccine Impact Monitoring Project (HPV-IMPACT) provided gold standard events. Using Tennessee Medicaid 2008-2017, cervical diagnostic procedures (N = 8549) among Davidson County women aged 18-39 years were randomly split into 60% training and 40% testing sets. Relevant diagnosis, procedure, and screening codes were used to build models from CIN2+ tissue diagnosis codes alone, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and random forest. Model-classified index events were counted to estimate incident events.

Results

HPV-IMPACT identified 983 incident CIN2+ events. Models identified 1007 (LASSO), 1245 (CIN2+ tissue diagnosis codes alone), and 957 (random forest) incident events. LASSO performed well in ICD-9 and ICD-10 eras: 77.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 72.5% to 81.5%) vs 81.1% (95% CI = 71.5% to 88.6%) sensitivity, 93.0% (95% CI = 91.9% to 94.0%) vs 90.2% (95% CI = 87.2% to 92.7%) specificity, 61.3% (95% CI = 56.6% to 65.8%) vs 60.3% (95% CI = 51.0% to 69.1%) positive predictive value, 96.6% (95% CI = 95.8% to 97.3%) vs 96.3% (95% CI = 94.1% to 97.8%) negative predictive value, 91.0% (95% CI = 89.9% to 92.1%) vs 88.8% (95% CI = 85.9% to 91.2%) accuracy, and 85.1% (95% CI = 82.9% to 87.4%) vs 85.6% (95% CI = 81.4% to 89.9%) C-indices, respectively; performance did not statistically significantly differ between eras (95% confidence intervals all overlapped).

Conclusions

Results confirmed model utility with good performance across both ICD eras for CIN2+ surveillance. Validated claims-based models may be used in future CIN2+ trend analyses to estimate HPV vaccine impact where population-based biopsies are unavailable.

Trends in High-grade Cervical Lesions and Cervical Cancer Screening in 5 States, 2008-2015

BACKGROUND

We describe changes in rates of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2, 3 and adenocarcinoma in situ (CIN2+) during a period of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake and changing cervical cancer screening recommendations.

METHODS

We conducted population-based laboratory surveillance for CIN2+ in catchment areas in 5 states, 2008-2015. We calculated age-specific CIN2+ rates per 100000 women by age groups. We estimated incidence rate ratios (IRR) of CIN2+ for 2-year periods among all women and among screened women to evaluate changes over time.

RESULTS

A total of 16572 CIN2+ cases were reported. Among women aged 18-20 and 21-24 years, CIN2+ rates declined in all sites, whereas in women aged 25-29, 30-34, and 35-39 years, trends differed across sites. The percent of women screened annually declined in all sites and age groups. Compared to 2008-2009, rates among screened women were significantly lower for all 3 periods in women aged 18-20 years (2010-2011: IRR 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.99; 2012-2013: IRR 0.63, 95% CI 0.47-0.85; 2014-2015: IRR 0.44, 95% CI 0.28-0.68) and lower for the latter 2 time periods in women aged 21-24 years (2012-2013: IRR 0.86, 95% CI 0.79-0.94; 2014-2015: IRR 0.61, 95% CI 0.55-0.67).

CONCLUSIONS

From 2008-2015, both CIN2+ rates and cervical cancer screening declined in women aged 18-24 years. The significant decreases in CIN2+ rates among screened women aged 18-24 years are consistent with a population-level impact of HPV vaccination.

Cervical adenocarcinoma in situ: Human papillomavirus types and incidence trends in five states, 2008-2015

Primary prevention through the use of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is expected to impact both cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS). While CIN is well described, less is known about the epidemiology of AIS, a rare cervical precancer. We identified AIS and CIN grade 3 (CIN3) cases through population-based surveillance, and analyzed data on HPV types and incidence trends overall, and among women screened for cervical cancer. From 2008 to 2015, 470 AIS and 6,587 CIN3 cases were identified. The median age of women with AIS was older than those with CIN3 (35 vs. 31 years; p < 0.01). HPV16 was the most frequently detected type in both AIS and CIN3 (57% in AIS; 58% in CIN3), whereas HPV18 was the second most common type in AIS and less common in CIN3 (38% vs. 5%; p < 0.01). AIS lesions were more likely than CIN3 lesions to be positive for high-risk types targeted by the bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines (HPV16/18, 92% vs. 63%; p < 0.01), and 9-valent vaccine (HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58, 95% vs. 87%; p < 0.01). AIS incidence rates decreased significantly in the 21-24 year age group (annual percent change [APC] overall: -22.1%, 95% CI: -33.9 to -8.2; APC among screened: -16.1%, 95% CI: -28.8 to -1.2), but did not decrease significantly in any older age group. This report on the largest number of genotyped AIS cases to date suggests an important opportunity for vaccine prevention of AIS, and is the first to document a decline in AIS incidence rates among young women during the vaccine era.

962. Trends in Cervical Pre-cancers by Race and Ethnicity During the Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Era, HPV Vaccine Impact Monitoring Project (HPV-IMPACT), United States, 2008–2016

Background

Since human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine introduction in the United States in 2006, cervical pre-cancer incidence has declined in young women, but pre-cancer trends have not been reported by race/ethnicity. We evaluated trends in cervical pre-cancers from 2008 to 2016 in non-Hispanic (NH) white, NH black, NH Asian, and Hispanic women identified through active population-based surveillance in the 5-site Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Impact Monitoring Project (HPV-IMPACT).

Methods

We analyzed data on cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grades 2–3 and adenocarcinoma in situ (CIN2+) cases aged 20–39 years. Annual CIN2+ rates per 100,000 women were calculated stratified by race/ethnicity in 5-year age groups, using multiple imputation to account for 10% missing race/ethnicity data. Rates were also calculated using estimated numbers screened for cervical cancer to control for known declines in screening. Trends, evaluated using JoinPoint software, are presented as average annual percentage changes (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

A total of 18,222 CIN2+ cases (62% NH white, 16% NH black, 16% Hispanic, 6% Asian) were reported from 2008 to 2016. CIN2+ rates among 20–24 year-olds declined significantly in all groups: NH white, AAPC: −14.2 (95% CI: −16.3, −12.1); NH black, AAPC: −15.5 (−19.5, −11.4); Asian, AAPC: −14.8 (−20.5, −8.8); Hispanic, AAPC: −14.3 (−17.9, −10.5). In 25–29 year olds, a significant decline was observed for NH whites only (AAPC: −2.4, [−4.0, −0.8]). No declines were seen in 30–34 or 35–39 year olds. Among screened 20–24 year-olds, significant but smaller declines were observed (AAPC: −9.8 to −8.4); no declines were observed in screened 25–29 year olds or older groups.

Conclusion

In this evaluation of CIN2+ trends by race/ethnicity during the HPV vaccine era, the significant declines in 20–24 year olds across all groups, including among screened women, is consistent with equitable vaccine impact on CIN2+.

Disclosures

All Authors: No reported Disclosures.

Trends in anogenital wart incidence among Tennessee Medicaid enrollees, 2006-2014: The impact of human papillomavirus vaccination

Introduction

Evidence of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine impact on anogenital warts (AGWs) by race or urbanicity in the US is lacking. We evaluated HPV vaccine impact in Tennessee by assessing AGW trends among Tennessee Medicaid (TennCare) enrollees aged 15–39 years from 2006-2014.

Methods

Persons with incident AGWs were identified using diagnosis/pharmacy codes from TennCare billing claims. We calculated sex-specific annual AGW incidence by age group, race, and urbanicity; estimated annual percent changes (APCs) using log-linear models; and performed pairwise comparisons by race and urbanicity.

Results

AGW incidence decreased among females aged 15–19 (APC = −10.6; P < 0.01) and 20–24 years (APC = −3.9; P = 0.02). Overall trends were similar between Whites and Blacks, and between those living in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and non-MSAs. Rates among males aged 15–19 years began decreasing after 2010. Among enrollees aged 25–39 years, rates increased or were stable.

Conclusions

Following introduction of the HPV vaccine in 2006, AGWs decreased among age groups most likely to be vaccinated. The change in trend among young males after 2010 suggests early herd effects. Our findings indicate vaccine effects and support the importance of improving adherence to current vaccination recommendations for preventing AGWs and other HPV-related diseases.

Trends in High-Grade Cervical Cancer Precursors in the Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Era

INTRODUCTION

The 2006 introduction of human papillomavirus vaccine targeted against genotypes 6, 11, 16, and 18 should result in decreased cervical dysplasia in vaccinated women. However, new cervical cancer guidelines to increase screening intervals complicate interpretation of trends. The hypothesis is that cervical dysplasia would decrease only in young vaccine-eligible women, and not older women.

METHODS

The authors identified Davidson County, Tennessee, women aged 18-39 years with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2 or greater and adenocarcinoma in situ, denoted as CIN2+, through pathology reports from laboratories serving this population. Biopsy specimens for human papillomavirus genotyping were collected. Trends in CIN2+ rates and associated human papillomavirus genotypes, 2008 through 2013, were examined.

RESULTS

The authors identified 2,031 women with CIN2+. Rates of CIN2+ fell from 188.9 to 58.7 per 100,000 women aged 18-20 years (annual percentage change= -24.2, 95% CI= -41.4, -2.1) and from 495.6 to 332.4 per 100,000 women aged 21-24 years (annual percentage change= -10.2%, 95% CI= -16.3, -3.4). There was no significant change in CIN2+ rates for women aged 25-29 or 30-39 years. In biopsy specimens from 1,319 of 2,031 (65%) women, at least one human papillomavirus genotype was identified in 1,270 (96%). The prevalence of at least one of four vaccine human papillomavirus genotypes (6, 11, 16, and 18) declined from 59% in 2008 to 52% in 2013 (p=0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Diagnosis of CIN2+ decreased in women aged 18-24 years, but not in older women. Both changes in screening and human papillomavirus vaccination could have contributed to the decline of CIN2+ in young women.