Predictive value of 1q21 gain in multiple myeloma is strongly dependent on concurrent cytogenetic abnormalities and first-line treatment

Improved therapies in multiple myeloma (MM) have forced a constant risk stratification update, first Durie-Salmon, then international scoring systems (ISS), next revised-ISS (RISS) including high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities (HRCAs) such as del(17p) and t(4;14), and now R2-ISS including 1q21 gain has been proposed. Predictive value of 1q21 gain by itself or in concurrence with other cytogenetic abnormalities is evaluated in 737 real-world plasma cell neoplasm (PCN) patients under current therapies. Ten-year progression-free survival (10y-PFS) rates for patients with 2, 3 and >3 copies of 1q21 were 72.2%, 42.5% and 43.4% (P<1.1×10^-17). Cox regression analysis confirmed that 1q21 gain was an independent prognostic factor for PFS (HR=1.804, P<0.0001, Harrell C-statistic =0.7779±0.01495) but not for OS (P=0.131). Gain of 1q21 was strongly associated with hypodiploidy (38.8% vs. 7.0%, P=1.3×10^-22), hyperdiploidy (44.1% vs. 16.4%, P=1.6×10^-13), HRCAs (12.6% vs. 3.5%, 1.8×10^-5), IGH breaks (12.3% vs. 2.1%, P=2.1×10^-7) and del(13q) (8.0% vs. 4.0%, P=0.031). In our series, 1q21 gain by itself did not improve RISS predictive capacity in patients either eligible or ineligible for autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). However, compared with patients with other 1q21 gains: concurrence with hyperdiploidy improved the prognosis of ASCT-eligible patients from 62.5% to 96.0% 10-year overall-survival (10y-OS, P<0.002); concurrence with hypodiploidy improved the prognosis of ASCT-ineligible patients from 35.7% to 71.0% (P=0.013); and concurrence with del(13q) worsened the prognosis of ASCT-ineligible patients from 12.5% to 53.4% (P=0.035). Gain of 1q21 should be patient-wisely evaluated, irrespective of the RISS, considering its concurrence with other cytogenetic abnormalities and eligibility for ASCT.

Blood-based risk stratification for pre-malignant and symptomatic plasma cell neoplasms to improve patient management

Standard risk stratification (sRisk) guides clinical management in monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) and multiple myeloma (MM). Nonetheless, clinical results are considerably heterogeneous among patients with similar risk status. Blood and bone marrow samples from 276 MGUS, 56 SMM and 242 MM in regular clinical practice were analyzed at diagnosis by flow cytometry. Higher levels of aberrant circulating plasma cells (cPC) (> 0.0035% of leukocytes), combined with albumin, beta2-microglobuline and lactate-dehydrogenase levels, offered minimally-invasive risk stratification (RcPC) with results comparable to sRisk. RcPC and sRisk 10-year progression-free-survival (10y-PFS) rates were: 93.8% vs. 95.1% for low-risk, 78.4% vs. 81.7% for intermediate-risk and 50.0% vs. 47.8% for high-risk MGUS; 58.3% vs. 57.8% low-risk, 44.4% vs. 45.8% intermediate-risk and 8.9% vs. 15.0% high-risk SMM; and 44.4% vs. 44.4% low-risk, 36.1% vs. 36.8% intermediate-risk, and 13.3% vs. 16.2% high-risk MM. Circulating-PC > 0.0035% vs. cPC<0.0035% was an independent prognostic factor for PFS (HR=4.389, P=1.2×10^-15, Harrell C-statistic =0.7705±0.0190) and over-all survival (OS, HR=4.286, 2.3×10^-9, Harrell C-statistic =0.8225±0.0197) that complemented sRisk in patients with low-sRisk (10y-PFS rates 48.1% vs. 87.3%, P=1.2×10^-8) and intermediate-sRisk (10y-PFS rates 28.9% vs. 74.1%, P=8.6×10^-12). Patients with high cPCs values are associated with higher proliferation and lower apoptosis rates of PC. Circulating-PC > 0.0035% identified MGUS, SMM and MM patients at higher risk of progression or death and predicted a cohort of patients that after relapse from stringent complete response showed shorter OS. These patients could benefit from early consolidation therapy, tandem ASCT or intensive maintenance.

Proliferation to Apoptosis Tumor Cell Ratio as a Biomarker to Improve Clinical Management of Pre-Malignant and Symptomatic Plasma Cell Neoplasms

Proliferation and apoptosis of neoplastic cells are prognostic biomarkers in plasma cell neoplasms (PCNs). The prognostic capacity of proliferation to apoptosis ratio (Ratio-PA) in the era of immunomodulatory treatments is re-evaluated in 316 gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), 57 smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM), and 266 multiple myeloma (MM) patients. Ratio-PA of 0.77 ± 0.12, 1.94 ± 0.52, and 11.2 ± 0.7 (p < 0.0001) were observed in MGUS, SMM, and MM patients. Ten-year overall survival (10y-OS) rates for patients with low/high Ratio-PA were 93.5%/77.3% p < 0.0001) for MGUS, 82.5%/64.7% (p < 0.05) for SMM, and 62.3%/47.0% (p < 0.05) for MM. For patients with low, intermediate, and high risk, 10y-OS for low/high Ratio-PA were 95.5%/72.9% (p < 0.0001), 74.2%/50.4% (p < 0.0001), and 35.3%/20.0% (p = 0.836), respectively. Ratio-PA was an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR = 2.119, p < 0.0001, Harrell-C-statistic = 0.7440 ± 0.0194) when co-analyzed with sex, age, and standard risk. In patients with Ratio-PA^high, only first-line therapy with VRd/VTd, but not PAD/VCD, coupled with ASCT was associated with high 10y-OS (82.7%). Tumor cell Ratio-PA estimated at diagnosis offers a prognostic biomarker that complements standard risk stratification and helps to guide the clinical management of pre-malignant and symptomatic PCNs. Every effort should be made to provide first-line therapies including VTd or VRd associated with ASCT to patients with Ratio-PA^high at higher risk of progression and death.