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Magaldi M, Nogue E, Molinari N, De Luca N, Dupuy AM, Leclercq F, Pasquie JL, Roubille C, Mercier G, Cristol JP, Roubille F. Predicting One-Year Mortality after Discharge Using Acute Heart Failure Score (AHFS). J Clin Med 2024; 13:2018. [PMID: 38610783 PMCID: PMC11012877 DOI: 10.3390/jcm13072018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2024] [Revised: 03/18/2024] [Accepted: 03/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/14/2024] Open
Abstract
Background: Acute heart failure (AHF) represents a leading cause of unscheduled hospital stays, frequent rehospitalisations, and mortality worldwide. The aim of our study was to develop a bedside prognostic tool, a multivariable predictive risk score, that is useful in daily practice, thus providing an early prognostic evaluation at admission and an accurate risk stratification after discharge in patients with AHF. Methods: This study is a subanalysis of the STADE HF study, which is a single-centre, prospective, randomised controlled trial enrolling 123 patients admitted to hospital for AHF. Here, 117 patients were included in the analysis, due to data exhaustivity. Regression analysis was performed to determine predictive variables for one-year mortality and/or rehospitalisation after discharge. Results: During the first year after discharge, 23 patients died. After modellisation, the variables considered to be of prognostic relevance in terms of mortality were (1) non-ischaemic aetiology of HF, (2) elevated creatinine levels at admission, (3) moderate/severe mitral regurgitation, and (4) prior HF hospitalisation. We designed a linear model based on these four independent predictive variables, and it showed a good ability to score and predict patient mortality with an AUC of 0.84 (95%CI: 0.76-0.92), thus denoting a high discriminative ability. A risk score equation was developed. During the first year after discharge, we observed as well that 41 patients died or were rehospitalised; hence, while searching for a model that could predict worsening health conditions (i.e., death and/or rehospitalisation), only two predictive variables were identified: non-ischaemic HF aetiology and previous HF hospitalisation (also included in the one-year mortality model). This second modellisation showed a more discrete discriminative ability with an AUC of 0.67 (95% C.I. 0.59-0.77). Conclusions: The proposed risk score and model, based on readily available predictive variables, are promising and useful tools to assess, respectively, the one-year mortality risk and the one-year mortality and/or rehospitalisations in patients hospitalised for AHF and to assist clinicians in the management of patients with HF aiming at improving their prognosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mariarosaria Magaldi
- Department of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, 80138 Naples, Italy; (M.M.)
- Cardiology Department, Montpellier University Hospital, Inserm U1046, CNRS UMR 9214, PhyMedExp, 34295 Montpellier, France (J.-L.P.)
| | - Erika Nogue
- Clinical Research and Epidemiology Unit, University Hospital of Montpellier, Montpellier University, 34090 Montpellier, France
| | - Nicolas Molinari
- Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health, INSERM, INRIA, CHU Montpellier, University of Montpellier, 34090 Montpellier, France
| | - Nicola De Luca
- Department of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, 80138 Naples, Italy; (M.M.)
| | - Anne-Marie Dupuy
- Département de Biochimie et Hormonologie, Centre de Ressources Biologiques, CHU de Montpellier, 34295 Montpellier, France;
| | - Florence Leclercq
- Cardiology Department, Montpellier University Hospital, Inserm U1046, CNRS UMR 9214, PhyMedExp, 34295 Montpellier, France (J.-L.P.)
| | - Jean-Luc Pasquie
- Cardiology Department, Montpellier University Hospital, Inserm U1046, CNRS UMR 9214, PhyMedExp, 34295 Montpellier, France (J.-L.P.)
| | - Camille Roubille
- PhyMedExp, University of Montpellier, INSERM U1046, CNRS UMR 9214, CEDEX 5, 34090 Montpellier, France
- Department of Internal Medicine PhyMedExp CHU Montpellier, Montpellier University, 34090 Montpellier, France
| | - Grégoire Mercier
- Department of Statistics, Montpellier University Hospital, CEDEX 5, 34090 Montpellier, France;
| | - Jean-Paul Cristol
- PhyMedExp, University of Montpellier, INSERM U1046, CNRS UMR 9214, CEDEX 5, 34090 Montpellier, France
- Laboratory of Biochemistry, Montpellier University Hospital, CEDEX 5, 34090 Montpellier, France
| | - François Roubille
- Cardiology Department, Montpellier University Hospital, Inserm U1046, CNRS UMR 9214, PhyMedExp, 34295 Montpellier, France (J.-L.P.)
- PhyMedExp, University of Montpellier, INSERM U1046, CNRS UMR 9214, CEDEX 5, 34090 Montpellier, France
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Kao R, Rajagopalan A, Beckett A, Beckett A, Rex R, Shah S, Waddell J, Boitano M, Faidi S, Babatunde O, Lawson F, Grant A, Sudarshan M, Sudarshan M, Takashashi M, Waggott M, Lampron J, Post A, Beale E, Bobrovitz N, Zakrison T, Smith A, Bawazeer M, Evans C, Leeper T, Kagedan D, Grenier T, Rezendo-Neto J, Roberts D, Roberts D, Stark P, Berg R, Mehta S, Gardner P, Moore L, Vassilyadi M, Moore L, Moore L, Hoshizaki B, Rezende-Neto J, Slaba I, Ramesh A, Grigorovich A, Parry N, Pajak C, Rosenbloom B, Grunfeld A, van Heest R, Fernandes J, Doucet J, Schooler S, Ali J, Klassen B, Santana M, McFarlan A, Ball C, Blackmore C, Rezende-Neto J, Kidane B, Hicks C, Brennan M, Brennan M, Harrington A, Sorvari A, Stewart TC, Biegler N, Chaubey V, Tsang B, Benjamin S, Hogan A, Fraser J, Martin M, Bridge J, Faidi S, Waligora M, Hsiao M, Sharma S, Sankarankutty A, Mckee J, Mckee J, Mckee J, Snider C, Szpakowski J, Brown R, Shah S, Shiu M, Chen M, Bell N, Besserer F, Bell N, Trudeau MO, Alhabboubi M, Rezende-Neto J, Rizoli S, Hill A, Joseph B, Lawless B, Jiao X, Xenocostas A, Rui T, Parry N, Driman D, Martin C, Stewart TC, Walsh J, Parry N, Merritt N, Elster E, Tien H, Phillips L, Bratu I, Nascimento B, Pinto R, Callum J, Tien H, Rizoli S, McMullan J, McGlasson R, Mahomed N, Flannery J, Bir C, Baillie F, Coates A, Asiri S, Foster P, Baillie F, Bhandari M, Phillips L, Bratu I, Schuurman N, Oliver L, Nathens A, Yazdani A, Alhabboubi M, St. Louis E, Tan X, Fata P, Deckelbaum D, Chughtai T, Razek T, Khwaja K, St. Louis E, Alhabboubi M, Tan X, Fata P, Deckelbaum D, Chughtai T, Razek T, Khwaja K, Takada M, Sawano M, Ito H, Tsutsumi H, Keenan A, Waggott M, Hoshizaki B, Brien S, Gilchrist M, Janis J, Phelan H, Minei J, Santana M, Stelfox H, McCredie V, Leung E, Garcia G, Rizoli S, Nathens A, Dixon E, Niven D, Kirkpatrick A, Feliciano D, D’Amours S, Ball C, Ahmed N, Izadi H, McFarlan A, Nathens A, Pavenski K, Nathens A, Bridge J, Tallon J, Leeper W, Vogt K, Stewart TC, Gray D, Parry N, Ameer A, Alhabboubi M, Alzaid S, Deckelbaum D, Fata P, Khwaja K, Razek T, Deckelbaum D, Drudi L, Boulva K, Rodrigue N, Khwaja K, Chughtai T, Fata P, Razek T, Rizoli S, Carreiro P, Lisboa T, Winter P, Ribeiro E, Cunha-Melo J, Andrade M, Zygun D, Grendar J, Ball C, Robertson H, Ouellet JF, Cheatham M, Kirkpatrick A, Ball C, Ouellet JF, McBeth P, Kirkpatrick A, Dixon E, Groff P, Inaba K, Okoye O, Pasley J, Demetriades D, Al-Harthi F, Cheng A, Lalani A, Mikrogianakis A, Cayne S, Knittel-Keren D, Gomez M, Stelfox H, Turgeon A, Lapointe J, Bourgeois G, Karton C, Rousseau P, Hoshizaki B, Stelfox H, Turgeon A, Bourgeois G, Lapointe J, Stelfox H, Turgeon A, Bourgeois G, Lapointe J, Rousseau P, Braga B, Faleiro R, Magaldi M, Cardoso G, Lozada W, Duarte L, Rizoli S, Ball C, Oddone-Paolucci E, Doig C, Kortbeek J, Gomez M, Fish J, Leach L, Leelapattana P, Fleming J, Bailey C, Nolan B, DeMestral C, McFarlan A, Zakirova R, Nathens A, Dabbs J, Duff D, Michalak A, Mitchell L, Nathens A, Singh M, Topolovec-Vranic J, Tymianski D, Yetman L, Canzian S, MacPhail I, Constable L, van Heest R, Tam A, Mahadevan P, Kim D, Bansal V, Casola G, Coimbra R, Gladwin C, Misra M, Kumar S, Gautam S, Sorvari A, Blackwood B, Coates A, Baillie F, Stelfox H, Nathens A, Wong C, Straus S, Haas B, Lenartowicz M, Parkovnick M, Parry N, Inaba K, Dixon E, Salim A, Pasley J, Kirkpatrick A, Ouellet JF, Niven D, Kirkpatrick A, Ball C, Neto C, Nogueira G, Fernandes M, Almeida T, de Abreu EMS, Rizoli S, Abrantes W, Taranto V, Parry N, Forbes T, Knight H, Keenan A, Yoxon H, Macpherson A, Bridge J, Topolovec-Vranic J, Mauceri J, Butorac E, Ahmed N, Holmes J, Gilliland J, Healy M, Tanner D, Polgar D, Fraser D, McBeth P, Crawford I, Tiruta C, Ball C, Kirkpatrick A, Roberts D, Ferri M, Bobrovitz N, Khandwala F, Stelfox H, Widder S, Mckee J, Hogan A, Benjamin S, Atkinson P, Benjamin S, Watson I, Hogan A, Benjamin S, Woodford S, Jaramillo DG, Nathens A, Alonazi N, Coates A, Baillie F, Zhang C, McFarlan A, Sorvari A, Chalklin K, Canzian S, Nathens A, DeMestral C, Hill A, Langer J, Nascimento B, Alababtain I, Fung SY, Passos E, Luz L, Brnjac E, Pinto R, Rizoli S, Widder S, Widder S, Widder S, Nathens A, Van Heest R, Constable L, Mancini F, Heidary B, Bell N, Appleton L, Hennecke P, Taunton J, Khwaja K, O’Connor M, Hameed M, Garraway N, Simons R, Evans D, Taulu T, Quinn L, Kuipers D, Rizoli S, Rogers C, Geerts W, Rhind S, Rizoli S, George K, Quinn L, Babcock C, Hameed M, Simons R, Caron N, Hameed M, Simons R, Prévost F, Razek T, Khwaja K, Sudarshan M, Razek T, Fata P, Deckelbaum D, Khwaja K, de Abreu EMS, Neto C, Almeida T, Pastore M, Taranto V, Fernandes M, Rizoli S, Nascimento B, Sankarankutty A, Pinto R, Callum J, Tremblay L, Tien H, Fowler R, Pinto R, Nathens A, Sadoun M, Harris J, Friese R, Kulvantunyou N, O’Keeffe T, Wynne J, Tang A, Green D, Rhee P, Trpkovski J, Blount V. Trauma Association of Canada Annual Scientific Meeting abstractsErythroopoietin resuscitated with normal saline, Ringer’s lactate and 7.5% hypertonic saline reduces small intestine injury in a hemorrhagic shock and resuscitation rat model.Analgesia in the management of pediatric trauma in the resuscitative phase: the role of the trauma centre.Multidisciplinary trauma team care in Kandahar, Afghanistan: current injury patterns and care practices.Does computed tomography for penetrating renal injury reduce renal exploration? An 8-year review at a Canadian level 1 trauma centre.The other side of pediatric trauma: violence and intent injury.Upregulation of activated protein C leads to factor V deficiency in early trauma coagulopathy.A provincial integrated model of improved care for patients following hip fracture.Sports concussion: an Olympic boxing model comparing sex with biomechanics and traumatic brain injury.A multifaceted quality improvement strategy to optimize monitoring and management of delirium in trauma patients: results of a clinician survey.Risk factors for severe all-terrain vehicle injuries in Alberta.Evaluating potential spatial access to trauma centre care by severely injured patients.Incidence of brain injury in facial fractures.Surgical outcomes and the acute care surgery service.The acute care general surgery population and prognostic factors for morbidity and mortality.Disaster preparedness of trauma.What would you like to know and how can we help you? Assessing the needs of regional trauma centres.Posttraumatic stress disorder screening for trauma patients at a level 1 trauma centre.Physical and finite element model reconstruction of a subdural hematoma event.Abdominal wall reconstruction in the trauma patient with an open abdomen.Development and pilot testing of a survey to measure patient and family experiences with injury care.Occult shock in trauma: What are Canadian traumatologists missing?Timeliness in obtaining emergent percutaneous procedures for the severely injured patient: How long is too long?97% of massive transfusion protocol activations do not include a complete hemorrhage panel.Trauma systems in Canada: What system components facilitate access to definitive care?The role of trauma team leaders in missed injuries: Does specialty matter?The adverse consequences of dabigatran among trauma and acute surgical patients.A descriptive study of bicycle helmet use in Montréal.Factor XIII, desmopressin and permissive hypotension enhance clot formation compared with normotensive resuscitation: uncontrolled hemorrhagic shock model.Negative pressure wound therapy for critically ill adults with open abdominal wounds: a systematic review.The “weekend warrior:” Fact or fiction for major trauma?Canadian injury preventon curriculum: a means to promote injury prevention.Penetrating splenic trauma: Safe for nonoperative management?The pediatric advanced trauma life support course: a national initiative.The effectiveness of a psycho-educational program among outpatients with burns or complex trauma.Trauma centre performance indicators for nonfatal outcomes: a scoping review.The evaluation of short track speed skating helmet performance.Complication rates as a trauma care performance indicator: a systematic review.Unplanned readmission following admission for traumatic injury: When, where and why?Reconstructions of concussive impacts in ice hockey.How does head CT correlate with ICP monitoring and impact monitoring discontinuation in trauma patients with a Marshall CT score of I–II?Impact of massive transfusion protocol and exclusion of plasma products from female donors on outcome of trauma patients in Calgary region of Alberta Health Services.Primary impact arthrodesis for a neglected open Weber B ankle fracture dislocation.Impact of depression on neuropsychological functioning in electrical injury patients.Predicting the need for tracheostomy in patients with cervical spinal cord injury.Predicting crumping during computed tomography imaging using base deficit.Feasibility of using telehomecare technology to support patients with an acquired brain injury and family care-givers.Program changes impact the outcomes of severely injured patients.Do trauma performance indicators accurately reflect changes in a maturing trauma program?One-stop falls prevention information for clinicians: a multidisciplinary interactive algorithm for the prevention of falls in older adults.Use of focused assessment with sonography for trauma (FAST) for combat casualties in forward facilities.Alberta All-terrain Vehicle Working Group: a call to action.Observations and potential role for the rural trauma team development course (RTTDC) in India.An electronic strategy to facilitate information-sharing among trauma team leaders.Development of quality indicators of trauma care by a consensus panel.An evaluation of a proactive geriatric trauma consultation service.Celebrity injury-related deaths: Is a gangster rapper really gangsta?Prevention of delirium in trauma patients: Are we giving thiamine prophylaxis a fair chance?Intra-abdominal injury in patients who sustain more than one gunshot wound to the abdomen: Should non-operative management be used?Retrospective review of blunt thoracic aortic injury management according to current treatment recommendations.Telemedicine for trauma resuscitation: developing a regional system to improve access to expert trauma care in Ontario.Comparing trauma quality indicator data between a pediatric and an adult trauma hospital.Using local injury data to influence injury prevention priorities.Systems saving lives: a structured review of pediatric trauma systems.What do students think of the St. Michael’s Hospital ThinkFirst Injury Prevention Strategy for Youth?An evidence-based method for targeting a shaken baby syndrome prevention media campaign.The virtual mentor: cost-effective, nurse-practitioner performed, telementored lung sonography with remote physician guidance.Quality indicators used by teaching versus nonteaching international trauma centres.Compliance to advanced trauma life support protocols in adult trauma patients in the acute setting.Closing the quality improvement loop: a collaborative approach.National Trauma Registry: “collecting” it all in New Brunswick.Does delay to initial reduction attempt affect success rates for anterior shoulder dislocation (pilot study)?Use of multidisciplinary, multi-site morbidity and mortality rounds in a provincial trauma system.Caring about trauma care: public awareness, knowledge and perceptions.Assessing the quality of admission dictation at a level 1 trauma centre.Trauma trends in older adults: a decade in review.Blunt splenic injury in patients with hereditary spherocytosis: a population-based analysis.Analysis of trauma team activation in severe head injury: an institutional experience.ROTEM results correlate with fresh frozen plasma transfusion in trauma patients.10-year trend of assault in Alberta.10-year trend in alcohol use in major trauma in Alberta.10-year trend in major trauma injury related to motorcycles compared with all-terrain vehicles in Alberta.Referral to a community program for youth injured by violence: a feasibility study.New impaired driving laws impact on the trauma population at level 1 and 3 trauma centres in British Columbia, Canada.A validation study of the mobile medical unit/polyclinic team training for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Games.Inferior vena cava filter use in major trauma: the Sunny-brook experience, 2000–2011.Relevance of cellular microparticles in trauma-induced coagulopathy: a systemic review.Improving quality through trauma centre collaboratives.Predictors of acute stress response in adult polytrauma patients following injury.Patterns of outdoor recreational injury in northern British Columbia.Risk factors for loss-to-follow up among trauma patients include functional, socio-economic, and geographic determinants: Would mandating opt-out consent strategies minimize these risks?Med-evacs and mortality rates for trauma from Inukjuak, Nunavik, Quebec.Review of open abdomens in McGill University Health Centre.Are surgical interventions for trauma associated with the development of posttraumatic retained hemothorax and empyema?A major step in understanding the mechanisms of traumatic coagulopathy: the possible role of thrombin activatable fibrinolysis inhibitor.Access to trauma centre care for patients with major trauma.Repeat head computed tomography in anticoagulated traumatic brain injury patients: still warranted.Improving trauma system governance. Can J Surg 2012. [DOI: 10.1503/cjs.006312] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2022] Open
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