Development and validation of SCOPE score: A clinical score to predict COVID-19 pneumonia progression to severe respiratory failure

Most patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) experience mild, non-specific symptoms, but many develop severe symptoms associated with an excessive inflammatory response. Elevated plasma concentrations of soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) provide early warning of progression to severe respiratory failure (SRF) or death, but access to suPAR testing may be limited. The Severe COvid Prediction Estimate (SCOPE) score, derived from circulating concentrations of C-reactive protein, D- dimers, interleukin-6, and ferritin among patients not receiving non-invasive or invasive mechanical ventilation during the SAVE-MORE study, offers predictive accuracy for progression to SRF or death within 14 days comparable to that of a suPAR concentration of ≥6 ng/mL (area under receiver operator characteristic curve 0.81 for both). The SCOPE score is validated in two similar independent cohorts. A SCOPE score of 6 or more is an alternative to suPAR for predicting progression to SRF or death within 14 days of hospital admission for pneumonia, and it can be used to guide treatment decisions.

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SCOPE score is composed of C-reactive protein, D dimers, ferritin, and interleukin-6

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Values of 6 or more predict 6-fold risk for severe respiratory failure or death

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SCOPE score predicts risk for severe respiratory failure or death comparable to suPAR

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Anakinra treatment when SCOPE is 6 or more provides lower odds of poor outcome

Procalcitonin to Reduce Long-Term Infection-associated Adverse Events in Sepsis. A Randomized Trial

Rationale: Although early antimicrobial discontinuation guided by procalcitonin (PCT) has shown decreased antibiotic consumption in lower respiratory tract infections, the outcomes in long-term sepsis sequelae remain unclear.

Objectives: To investigate if PCT guidance may reduce the incidence of long-term infection-associated adverse events in sepsis.

Methods: In this multicenter trial, 266 patients with sepsis (by Sepsis-3 definitions) with lower respiratory tract infections, acute pyelonephritis, or primary bloodstream infection were randomized (1:1) to receive either PCT-guided discontinuation of antimicrobials or standard of care. The discontinuation criterion was ≥80% reduction in PCT levels or any PCT ≤0.5 μg/L at Day 5 or later. The primary outcome was the rate of infection-associated adverse events at Day 180, a composite of the incidence of any new infection by Clostridioides difficile or multidrug-resistant organisms, or any death attributed to baseline C. difficile or multidrug-resistant organism infection. Secondary outcomes included 28-day mortality, length of antibiotic therapy, and cost of hospitalization.

Measurements and Main Results: The rate of infection-associated adverse events was 7.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.8–13.1%; 9/125) versus 15.3% (95% CI, 10.1–22.4%; 20/131) (hazard ratio, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.20–0.98; P = 0.045); 28-day mortality 15.2% (95% CI, 10–22.5%; 19/125) versus 28.2% (95% CI, 21.2–36.5%; 37/131) (hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.29–0.89; P = 0.02); and median length of antibiotic therapy 5 (range, 5–7) versus 10 (range, 7–15) days (P < 0.001) in the PCT and standard-of-care arms, respectively. The cost of hospitalization was also reduced in the PCT arm.

Conclusions: In sepsis, PCT guidance was effective in reducing infection-associated adverse events, 28-day mortality, and cost of hospitalization.

Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03333304).

Randomized, controlled, multicentre clinical trial of the antipyretic effect of intravenous paracetamol in patients admitted to hospital with infection

Aim

No randomized study has been conducted to investigate the use of intravenous paracetamol (acetaminophen, APAP) for the management of fever due to infection. The present study evaluated a new ready‐made infusion of paracetamol.

Methods

Eighty patients with a body temperature onset ≥38.5°C in the previous 24 h due to infection were randomized to a single administration of placebo (n = 39) or 1 g paracetamol (n = 41), and their temperature was recorded at standard intervals. Rescue medication with 1 g paracetamol was allowed. Serum samples were collected for the measurement of APAP and its metabolites. The primary endpoint was defervescence, defined as a core temperature ≤37.1°C.

Results

During the first 6 h, defervescence was achieved in 15 (38.5%) patients treated with placebo compared with 33 (80.5%) patients treated with paracetamol 1 g (P < 0.0001). The median time to defervescence with paracetamol 1 g was 3 h. Rescue medication was given to 15 (38.5%) and five (12.2%) patients allocated to placebo and paracetamol, respectively (P = 0.007); nine (60.0%) and two (40.0%) of these patients, respectively, experienced defervescence. No further antipyretic medication was needed for patients becoming afebrile with rescue medication. Serum glucuronide‐APAP concentrations were significantly greater in the serum of patients who did not experience defervescence with paracetamol. The efficacy of paracetamol was not affected by serum creatinine. No drug‐related adverse events were reported.

Conclusions

The 1 g paracetamol formulation has a rapid and sustainable antipyretic effect on fever due to infection. Its efficacy is dependent on hepatic metabolism.

Validation of the new Sepsis-3 definitions: proposal for improvement in early risk identification

OBJECTIVES

Sepsis-3 definitions generated controversies regarding their general applicability. The Sepsis-3 Task Force outlined the need for validation with emphasis on the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score. This was done in a prospective cohort from a different healthcare setting.

METHODS

Patients with infections and at least two signs of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) were analysed. Sepsis was defined as total SOFA ≥2 outside the intensive care unit (ICU) or as an increase of ICU admission SOFA ≥2. The primary endpoints were the sensitivity of qSOFA outside the ICU and sepsis definition both outside and within the ICU to predict mortality.

RESULTS

In all, 3346 infections outside the ICU and 1058 infections in the ICU were analysed. Outside the ICU, respective mortality with ≥2 SIRS and qSOFA ≥2 was 25.3% and 41.2% (p <0.0001); the sensitivities of qSOFA and of sepsis definition to predict death were 60.8% and 87.2%, respectively. This was 95.9% for sepsis definition in the ICU. The sensitivity of qSOFA and of ≥3 SIRS criteria for organ dysfunction outside the ICU was 48.7% and 72.5%, respectively (p <0.0001). Misclassification outside the ICU with the 1991 and Sepsis-3 definitions into stages of lower severity was 21.4% and 3.7%, respectively (p <0.0001) and 14.9% and 3.7%, respectively, in the ICU (p <0.0001). Adding arterial pH ≤7.30 to qSOFA increased sensitivity for prediction of death to 67.5% (p 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis positively validated the use of SOFA score to predict unfavourable outcome and to limit misclassification into lower severity. However, qSOFA score had inadequate sensitivity for early risk assessment.

Bloodstream infections and sepsis in Greece: over-time change of epidemiology and impact of de-escalation on final outcome

BACKGROUND

Choice of empirically prescribed antimicrobials for sepsis management depends on epidemiological factors. The epidemiology of sepsis in Greece was studied in two large-periods.

METHODS

Sepsis due to bloodstream infections (BSI) from July 2006 until March 2013 was recorded in a multicenter study in 46 departments. Patients were divided into sepsis admitted in the emergencies and hospitalized in the general ward (GW) and sepsis developing after admission in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). The primary endpoints were the changes of epidemiology and the factors related with BSIs by multidrug-resistant (MDR) pathogens; the secondary endpoint was the impact of de-escalation on antimicrobial therapy.

RESULTS

754 patients were studied; 378 from 2006-2009 and 376 from 2010-2013. Major differences were recorded between periods in the GW. They involved increase of: sepsis severity; the incidence of underlying diseases; the incidence of polymicrobial infections; the emergence of Klebsiella pneumoniae as a pathogen; and mortality. Factors independently related with BSI by MDR pathogens were chronic hemofiltration, intake of antibiotics the last three months and residence into long-term care facilities. De-escalation in BSIs by fully susceptible Gram-negatives did not affect final outcome. Similar epidemiological differences were not found in the ICU; MDR Gram-negatives predominated in both periods.

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemiology of sepsis in Greece differs in the GW and in the ICU. De-escalation in the GW is a safe strategy.

Risk assessment in sepsis: a new prognostication rule by APACHE II score and serum soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor

INTRODUCTION

Early risk assessment is the mainstay of management of patients with sepsis. APACHE II is the gold standard prognostic stratification system. A prediction rule that aimed to improve prognostication by APACHE II with the application of serum suPAR (soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor) is developed.

METHODS

A prospective study cohort enrolled 1914 patients with sepsis including 62.2% with sepsis and 37.8% with severe sepsis/septic shock. Serum suPAR was measured in samples drawn after diagnosis by an enzyme-immunoabsorbent assay; in 367 patients sequential measurements were performed. After ROC analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis a prediction rule for risk was developed. The rule was validated in a double-blind fashion by an independent confirmation cohort of 196 sepsis patients, predominantly severe sepsis/septic shock patients, from Sweden.

RESULTS

Serum suPAR remained stable within survivors and non-survivors for 10 days. Regression analysis showed that APACHE II ≥ 17 and suPAR ≥ 12 ng/ml were independently associated with unfavorable outcome. Four strata of risk were identified: i) APACHE II <17 and suPAR <12 ng/ml with mortality 5.5%; ii) APACHE II < 17 and suPAR ≥ 12 ng/ml with mortality 17.4%; iii) APACHE II ≥ 17 and suPAR <12 ng/ml with mortality 37.4%; and iv) APACHE II ≥ 17 and suPAR ≥ 12 ng/ml with mortality 51.7%. This prediction rule was confirmed by the Swedish cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

A novel prediction rule with four levels of risk in sepsis based on APACHE II score and serum suPAR is proposed. Prognostication by this rule is confirmed by an independent cohort.