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Liu Y, Donat MG, England MH, Alexander LV, Hirsch AL, Delgado-Torres C. Author Correction: Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events. Nat Commun 2023; 14:7747. [PMID: 38012157 PMCID: PMC10682381 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43407-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Yiling Liu
- Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.
- National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia.
| | - Markus G Donat
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Matthew H England
- Centre for Marine Science and Innovation and Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, UNSW, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
| | - Lisa V Alexander
- Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
| | - Annette L Hirsch
- Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
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Liu Y, Donat MG, England MH, Alexander LV, Hirsch AL, Delgado-Torres C. Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events. Nat Commun 2023; 14:6387. [PMID: 37821438 PMCID: PMC10567839 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42113-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2021] [Accepted: 09/27/2023] [Indexed: 10/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Several aspects of regional climate including near-surface temperature and precipitation are predictable on interannual to decadal time scales. Despite indications that some climate states may provide higher predictability than others, previous studies analysing decadal predictions typically sample a variety of initial conditions. Here we assess multi-year predictability conditional on the phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the time of prediction initialisation. We find that predictions starting with El Niño or La Niña conditions exhibit higher skill in predicting near-surface air temperature and precipitation multiple years in advance, compared to predictions initialised from neutral ENSO conditions. This holds true in idealised prediction experiments with the Community Climate System Model Version 4 and to a lesser extent also real-world predictions using the Community Earth System Model and a multi-model ensemble of hindcasts contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project. This enhanced predictability following ENSO events is related to phase transitions as part of the ENSO cycle, and related global teleconnections. Our results indicate that certain initial states provide increased predictability, revealing windows of opportunity for more skillful multi-year predictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yiling Liu
- Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.
- National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia.
| | - Markus G Donat
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Matthew H England
- Centre for Marine Science and Innovation and Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, UNSW, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
| | - Lisa V Alexander
- Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
| | - Annette L Hirsch
- Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
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Donat MG. Marine heatwaves are reliably forecast by climate models. Nature 2022; 604:432-433. [PMID: 35444315 DOI: 10.1038/d41586-022-01028-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Abstract
Ocean temperature variability is a fundamental component of the Earth's climate system, and extremes in this variability affect the health of marine ecosystems around the world. The study of marine heatwaves has emerged as a rapidly growing field of research, given notable extreme warm-water events that have occurred against a background trend of global ocean warming. This review summarizes the latest physical and statistical understanding of marine heatwaves based on how they are identified, defined, characterized, and monitored through remotely sensed and in situ data sets. We describe the physical mechanisms that cause marine heatwaves, along with their global distribution, variability, and trends. Finally, we discuss current issues in this developing research area, including considerations related to thechoice of climatological baseline periods in defining extremes and how to communicate findings in the context of societal needs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric C J Oliver
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada;
| | - Jessica A Benthuysen
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia
| | - Sofia Darmaraki
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada;
| | | | | | - Neil J Holbrook
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Robert W Schlegel
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada;
- Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA
| | - Alex Sen Gupta
- Climate Change Research Centre, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia
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Abstract
Ocean temperature variability is a fundamental component of the Earth's climate system, and extremes in this variability affect the health of marine ecosystems around the world. The study of marine heatwaves has emerged as a rapidly growing field of research, given notable extreme warm-water events that have occurred against a background trend of global ocean warming. This review summarizes the latest physical and statistical understanding of marine heatwaves based on how they are identified, defined, characterized, and monitored through remotely sensed and in situ data sets. We describe the physical mechanisms that cause marine heatwaves, along with their global distribution, variability, and trends. Finally, we discuss current issues in this developing research area, including considerations related to thechoice of climatological baseline periods in defining extremes and how to communicate findings in the context of societal needs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric C J Oliver
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada;
| | - Jessica A Benthuysen
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia
| | - Sofia Darmaraki
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada;
| | | | | | - Neil J Holbrook
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Robert W Schlegel
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada;
- Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA
| | - Alex Sen Gupta
- Climate Change Research Centre, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia
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Bellprat O, Guemas V, Doblas-Reyes F, Donat MG. Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution. Nat Commun 2019; 10:1732. [PMID: 30988387 PMCID: PMC6465259 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09729-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2018] [Accepted: 03/20/2019] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is shaping extreme heat and rain. To what degree human activity has increased the risk of high impact events is of high public concern and still heavily debated. Recent studies attributed single extreme events to climate change by comparing climate model experiments where the influence of an external driver can be included or artificially suppressed. Many of these results however did not properly account for model errors in simulating the probabilities of extreme event occurrences. Here we show, exploiting advanced correction techniques from the weather forecasting field, that correcting properly for model probabilities alters the attributable risk of extreme events to climate change. This study illustrates the need to correct for this type of model error in order to provide trustworthy assessments of climate change impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Omar Bellprat
- Earth Sciences Departement, Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Carrer de Jordi Girona, 29-31, 08005, Barcelona, Spain.
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich, Universtitätsstrasse 16, 8006, Zurich, Switzerland.
| | - Virginie Guemas
- Earth Sciences Departement, Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Carrer de Jordi Girona, 29-31, 08005, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Francisco Doblas-Reyes
- Earth Sciences Departement, Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Carrer de Jordi Girona, 29-31, 08005, Barcelona, Spain
- ICREA, Pg. Lluis Companys, Barcelona, 08005, Spain
| | - Markus G Donat
- Earth Sciences Departement, Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Carrer de Jordi Girona, 29-31, 08005, Barcelona, Spain
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 2052, NSW, Australia
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Oliver ECJ, Donat MG, Burrows MT, Moore PJ, Smale DA, Alexander LV, Benthuysen JA, Feng M, Sen Gupta A, Hobday AJ, Holbrook NJ, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, Scannell HA, Straub SC, Wernberg T. Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century. Nat Commun 2018; 9:1324. [PMID: 29636482 PMCID: PMC5893591 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-03732-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 387] [Impact Index Per Article: 64.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2017] [Accepted: 03/08/2018] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Heatwaves are important climatic extremes in atmospheric and oceanic systems that can have devastating and long-term impacts on ecosystems, with subsequent socioeconomic consequences. Recent prominent marine heatwaves have attracted considerable scientific and public interest. Despite this, a comprehensive assessment of how these ocean temperature extremes have been changing globally is missing. Using a range of ocean temperature data including global records of daily satellite observations, daily in situ measurements and gridded monthly in situ-based data sets, we identify significant increases in marine heatwaves over the past century. We find that from 1925 to 2016, global average marine heatwave frequency and duration increased by 34% and 17%, respectively, resulting in a 54% increase in annual marine heatwave days globally. Importantly, these trends can largely be explained by increases in mean ocean temperatures, suggesting that we can expect further increases in marine heatwave days under continued global warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric C J Oliver
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada. .,Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia. .,Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia.
| | - Markus G Donat
- Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Gate 11 Botany Street, Library Walk, Level 4, Matthews Building, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.,Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Gate 11 Botany Street, Library Walk, Level 4, Matthews Building, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
| | - Michael T Burrows
- Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, Argyll, PA37 1QA, Scotland, UK
| | - Pippa J Moore
- Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, SY23 3DA, UK
| | - Dan A Smale
- Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, PL1 2PB, UK.,UWA Oceans Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia
| | - Lisa V Alexander
- Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Gate 11 Botany Street, Library Walk, Level 4, Matthews Building, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.,Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Gate 11 Botany Street, Library Walk, Level 4, Matthews Building, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
| | - Jessica A Benthuysen
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3, Townsville MC, QLD, 4810, Australia
| | - Ming Feng
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Crawley, 6009, WA, Australia
| | - Alex Sen Gupta
- Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Gate 11 Botany Street, Library Walk, Level 4, Matthews Building, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.,Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Gate 11 Botany Street, Library Walk, Level 4, Matthews Building, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
| | | | - Neil J Holbrook
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia.,Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia
| | - Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick
- Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Gate 11 Botany Street, Library Walk, Level 4, Matthews Building, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.,Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Gate 11 Botany Street, Library Walk, Level 4, Matthews Building, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
| | - Hillary A Scannell
- School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, 98105, WA, USA.,NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, 98115, WA, USA
| | - Sandra C Straub
- UWA Oceans Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia
| | - Thomas Wernberg
- UWA Oceans Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia
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Angélil O, Perkins-Kirkpatrick S, Alexander LV, Stone D, Donat MG, Wehner M, Shiogama H, Ciavarella A, Christidis N. Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products. Weather Clim Extrem 2016; 13:35-43. [PMID: 28344929 PMCID: PMC5351813 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2016.07.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2016] [Revised: 06/30/2016] [Accepted: 07/10/2016] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averages over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oliver Angélil
- Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW Australia, Sydney NSW 2052, Australia
- Corresponding author.
| | - Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick
- Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW Australia, Sydney NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Lisa V. Alexander
- Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW Australia, Sydney NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Dáithí Stone
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - Markus G. Donat
- Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW Australia, Sydney NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Michael Wehner
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - Hideo Shiogama
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
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